Forex analytical forecast for today, October 3, for USD/JPY, NZD/USD, gold and cryptocurrencies

USD/JPY, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Bitcoin/USD, cryptocurrency, Gold, mineral, Forex analytical forecast for today, October 3, for USD/JPY, NZD/USD, gold and cryptocurrencies

USD/JPY: The dollar continues to hold record positions

The US dollar continued to develop a gradual but steady growth in the Asian trading session, having resumed the testing of the level of 145.00, with the prospect of overcoming it. The U.S. currency continues to be attractive for the market participants in anticipation of the further steps on tightening of the US FRS monetary parameters, announced the day before. It is expected that the regulator plans at least another increase in interest rates by the end of this year, the more so as experts allow for a correction of 1.25%.

Japanese regulator prefers to maintain the same position in order to avoid resumption of the past deflationary effects. Earlier the macroeconomic data was published in Japan that increased the negative factors for the national currency. Thus, Tankan index, showing the dynamics of large enterprises in Q3 decreased to 8.0 points from the previous 9.0 points against expectations of the market to strengthen to 11.0 points, and PMI (business activity index) of the manufacturing sector from Jibun Bank Japan decreased to 50.8 points for September from the previous 51.0 points a month earlier against expectations of the growth to 51.5 points.

  • Resistance levels: 145.00, 146.00, 147.00, 148.00.
  • Support levels: 144.00, 142.54, 141.50, 140.78.

NZD/USD: The New Zealand currency is moving in a weak corrective growth

The New Zealand dollar is moving within the weak strengthening during the morning session, moderately recovering from the strong losses suffered last week, testing the 0.5633 level. At the end of the previous trading week traders increased demand for the dollar during Friday's trading after reading the Consumer Price Index data, which showed another strengthening. Moreover, the statistics from the United States only supported consumer sentiment. According to the data, the U.S. households in August increased their incomes by 0.3%, which meets the experts' preliminary expectations, while personal expenses went up by 0.4% against decrease by 0.2% in the previous month, while economists expected correction by 0.2% only.

The New Zealand currency was put under increased pressure by the statistics from China released the day before. Thus, the volume of approved applications for construction work in New Zealand in August fell by 1.6% from 4.9% the previous month, with the analysts' forecasts of strengthening by 2.0%. Chinese data had disappointed with a strong decline of services PMI for September to 50.6 points against expectations of 52.6 points.

  • Resistance levels: 0.5650, 0.5720, 0.5800, 0.5850.
  • Support levels: 0.5563, 0.5467, 0.5400, 0.5300.

Gold prices

The precious metal is priced at 1660.00, enjoying moderate support amid the uncertainty in the US currency towards the end of the previous week, still leaving the bulls under the influence of negative factors. Moreover, the safe-haven asset continues to remain vulnerable to rising US Treasury yields.

There are still probability that gold will resume its downward trend this week, because the world's leading regulators maintain their stance on the necessity to tighten monetary policy. According to reliable data, officials from the Australian Central Bank are expected to meet on October 4 to raise the interest rate to 2.85% from 2.35%. On Wednesday, the New Zealand regulator will adjust its key rate to 3.5% from the current 3.0%. By Friday market participants will expect statements from ECB (European Central Bank) and Bank of England wishing to evaluate regulators' intentions to tighten monetary parameters due to inflation reaching 10.0% in Eurozone countries.

  • Resistance levels: 1675.00, 1688.58, 1700.00 and 1720.00.
  • Support levels: 1653.92, 1640.00, 1620.00, 1600.00.

Cryptocurrency analysis

The first cryptocurrency BTC has been holding in the price range of 19800.00-18750.00 for about two weeks. The previous week the altcoin tested the upper resistance level, but the attempts were not successful and the "bears" retook the advantage of the asset.

Like the entire digital asset market, BTC continues to be under pressure over the long term. The dominance of hawks at the U.S. Federal Reserve promoting systemic monetary policy tightening, as well as widespread increased interest from regulators in the turnover of funds on crypto markets in the world's leading economies, geopolitical instability and risks of the beginning of recession by region significantly reduce the attractiveness of investment instruments among institutional market participants. In addition, analysts report that the popularity of crypto-assets is losing demand even among traders in the medium and small segments of the market. As reported in the results of Bankrate's survey of American teenagers, in 2022, no more than 30% of respondents showed interest in cryptocurrencies, compared to 50% in 2020. According to experts, earlier interest was due primarily to the rapidly growing value of the tools, allowing investors to quickly earn money, but now the chances for a rapid return decreased many times over.

  • Resistance levels: 19800.00, 21093.75, 21875.00.
  • Support levels: 18750.00, 17800.00, 17187.50, 16900.00.


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Forex analytical forecast for today, November 29, for EUR/USD, USD/CAD, NZD/USD & Crude oil
EUR/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, Forex analytical forecast for today, November 29, for EUR/USD, USD/CAD, NZD/USD & Crude oil EUR/USD: the EU currency is regaining lossesThe euro is trading in the upward dynamic, ending an ambiguous trend at the beginning of the week, where EUR/USD strengthened at the opening of Monday's session and hit the local high of June 29 at 1.0500. However the "bulls" lost the advantage, and by the end of the day session the pair plunged into negative values.The positive dynamics of the asset is supported by the correctional weakening of the American currency, which continues to be in a "bearish" trend due to the release of the minutes of the US Federal Reserve System meeting in November. The regulator sent a signal to the market that it is ready to reduce the rate of the key indicator correction already by the end of this year, which supports about 70% of the surveyed experts, expecting to see the next rate hike of 0.50%, and next year the rate may decrease to 0.25%.A positive stimulus for the euro was the briefing of ECB (European Central Bank) Governor Christine Lagarde, who earlier said that the regulator intends to continue strengthening the interest rate, ignoring the risks of economic slowdown, which will reduce business activity in the region. Recall, the agency has set the target level for inflation at 2.0%.Resistance levels: 1.0400, 1.0450, 1.0500 and 1.0550.Support levels: 1.0350, 1.0300, 1.0253, 1.0200.Read more: The European Central Bank (ECB)USD/CAD: the instrument finished the active growthIn the Asian trading session USD/CAD instrument showed slight decline, having earlier shown active strengthening, approaching the resistance level of 1.3500 and the local high of November 10.Investors are trying to realize the market outlook amid the comments of the ECB (European Central Bank) and U.S. Federal Reserve System officials, waiting for the next signals, as macroeconomic announcements include key data. This week, the U.S. will publish data on gross domestic product (GDP) for Q3, as well as report on employment for the current month. By the middle of the week, investors will want to assess China's October business activity which is of particular importance for the market amid mass protests due to tough quarantine measures. Today, on November 29, analysts expect the release of the updated statistics on the Canadian GDP (Gross Domestic Product) for Q3. The preliminary estimate for the Canadian economy is expected to decline to 0.4% from 0.8% for the quarter, but the annual value may rise to 3.5% from the current 3.3%.Resistance levels: 1.3500, 1.3550, 1.3600, 1.3650.Support levels: 1.3440, 1.3356, 1.3300, 1.3226.NZD/USD: Downward channel continuesThe New Zealand currency holds the upward movement in value, trading at 0.6205, as the macroeconomic bloc contributed to a slight strengthening.According to publications from Stats.NZ (Statistics New Zealand), the employment rate in key sectors of the economy for October adjusted to 2.32 million jobs, but a corrective decline of 1.7% among primary industries, the manufacturing sector showed a strengthening of 0.6%, and the service sector remained flat. By age group, the biggest gain was in the 15-19 category, which added 18.5%, and the biggest outflow was in the 25-29 category, at -3.3%. Part-time employment in the first category is a major contributor to economic performance, so its strengthening was not able to have a significant impact.Resistance levels are at 0.6265 and 0.6467.Support levels: 0.6100, 0.5878.Oil market reviewThe benchmark Brent crude oil price is showing a correction, being slightly below the level of 87.00.There is no general consensus among Eurozone countries on the level of cap on Russian oil. As a diplomat stated the disagreement with the general concept was expressed by the delegation of Poland, continuing to demand the revision of the permissible price level for "black gold" in the range of 65.00-70.00, because based on the current market realities the specified limit does not put any pressure on the Russian economy. Moreover, according to information from market platforms, yesterday the Urals oil brand reached the level of 51.96. Discussions continue, and experts doubt that all parties will agree on the deal by December 5, when the restrictive measures are due to enter into force as part of the eighth package of sanctions, including a ban on oil supplies from Russia via the sea route.Resistance levels: 88.20, 95.00.Support levels: 82.80, 77.50.
Nov 29, 2022 Read
Forex analytical forecast for today, November 28, for USDJPY, AUDUSD, Gold & Brent Oil
AUD/USD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Forex analytical forecast for today, November 28, for USDJPY, AUDUSD, Gold & Brent Oil USDJPY: The dollar started the trading week with declineThe US currency showed a downward trend against the Japanese yen, holding near the local low of November 15, at 138.50.The dollar has not lost its intention to recover losses since the end of the previous Friday, after the release of the final minutes of the US Federal Reserve System meeting, which indicated the agreement to reduce the "hawkish" intensity regarding the interest rate strengthening in the future. For investors, it gave hope for a 0.50% correction in the next December meeting of the agency. However, financial authorities noted that such a decision does not signal the end of the fight against inflation, because the latter is still being held at record levels.Resistance levels: 139.58, 140.79, 141.50 and 142.54.Support levels: 138.50, 137.50, 136.50, 135.57.AUDUSD: Australia's economy is decliningA downward correction in the Australian currency allowed the AUD/USD pair to reach the 0.6685 level."Bears" gained the dominant advantage after the release of weak macroeconomic data. According to the ABS (Australian Bureau of Statistics), retail turnover for October was down 0.2% after strengthening 0.6%, the first time since December's 4.1% slump last year that the value has corrected downwards, the current swing was due to the weakening of all major industries except perhaps the grocery retail sector. Department stores were the key contributors to the negative movement, down 2.4%, followed by clothing retailing with -2.0% and restaurant and café chains also down -0.4% for the first time since January. The head of statistics of the retail segment of the ABS noted that the current situation is caused by an increase in the percentage indicator and will have a long-term impact on the market.Resistance levels: 0.6765, 0.6970.Support levels: 0.6600, 0.6410.Read more: AUDUSD: analysis, signals, forecast for today and quotesGold pricesThe price of the precious metal is consolidating at 1750.00, waiting for another positive signal, ending the moderate strengthening the day before, where the correction in gold was due to the weakness of the US dollar because of the release of November minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting.This week is important for further price movement of the asset, first of all, the release of the euro area consumer price statistics, as well as the data on the US employment market in November, which will be announced by the end of the week. Preliminary market assessments imply the reduction of the inflation rate to 10.4% from 10.6%, while the core CPI value will remain at the same level of 5.0%. The labor market statistics from the US are not expected to be sensational as forecasts expect new job postings excluding the agribusiness sector for November at 208,0K previously showing an October increase of 261,0K and the number of unemployed to display zero correction and remain at 3.7%.Resistance levels: 1765.30, 1786.28, 1800.00, 1816.62.Support levels: 1734.91, 1720.00, 1700.00, 1688.58.Oil signalsThe current trading week started with the active decrease in the Brent oil, revealing the potential of the "bears", which had gained the advantage since the end of the previous week, getting ready to test the 81.00 level.A decline in U.S. crude reserves provides little support for the "black gold. The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) reported a week earlier that strategic reserves were down by 3.691 million barrels, having previously declined by another 5.4 million barrels. Meanwhile, OFAC (Office of Foreign Assets Control) approved an extended license for 6 months for the largest national energy enterprise, which will allow the supply of oil and petroleum products from Venezuela, partially offsetting the shortfall in the Russian oil market and stabilizing the fall in market prices. However, the document still prohibits the payment of any tax duty or royalty to the Venezuelan government, besides receiving any dividend from PDVSA, which is a Venezuelan state oil company or other legal entity is still prohibited.Resistance levels: 82.27, 83.89, 86.00, 87.00.Support levels: 81.00, 80.00, 78.28, 77.00.
Nov 28, 2022 Read
Forex analytical forecast for today, November 22, for AUD/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD & Gold
AUD/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, Gold, mineral, Forex analytical forecast for today, November 22, for AUD/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD & Gold AUD/USD: The Australian currency is testing 0.6600The AUD/USD posted a weak strengthening in an attempt to recover losses incurred from an earlier correction, where the AUD/USD updated to a local low on Nov. 11. The asset is trading at 0.6620, supported by a technical factor.Investors took wait-and-see attitude, wishing to evaluate the final minutes of U.S. Federal Reserve officials meeting, announced for Wednesday. The market expects the financial authorities to lower the rate of interest rate hike, but statements of the Board members will be no less important. During the afternoon session, investors expect statements from the chairman of the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia), where they will be able to adjust forecasts regarding the prospects of tightening monetary parameters in the future. Statistics with economic fundamentals is announced for Wednesday of this week. Among other things, economists want to assess business activity from the Commonwealth Bank and S&P Global in November. The current expectations are for the service sector to drop to 49.1 points from 49.3 points and for manufacturing to drop to 52.4 points from 52.7 points.Resistance levels are 0.6650, 0.6700, 0.6750 and 0.6800.Support levels: 0.6583, 0.6520, 0.6450, 0.6400.USD/CHF: Investors await the outcome of the US Federal Reserve meetingThe American currency is trading unsteady lower near the local high reached earlier on November 11. Traders refrained from excessive activity on the markets wishing to get acquainted with the outcome protocols of the U.S. regulator; besides the block of macroeconomic indicators on durable goods orders in October and PMI in November is of interest to them. Please be reminded that experts place their bets on slowdown in monetary policy tightening by the US financial authorities. According to insiders, during the December summit the Fed may soften the hawkish rhetoric and the interest rate will be raised only by 0.50% against the usual 0.75%. However, the upper bound on the target correction may also be revised upward because consumer price pressures are above the 2.0% target.Resistance levels: 0.9600, 0.9650, 0.9700, 0.9762.Support levels: 0.9550, 0.9478, 0.9400, 0.9350.Read more: USD/CHF: forex signals, online trading forecasts for today, characteristics & featuresUSD/CAD: The "bulls" lost the advantage at 1.3475The upward movement of the trading instrument to 1.3475 is due to the weakness of the Canadian currency because of the "black gold" WTI quotations slump, which decreased from 94.00 to 75.80. In the course of two weeks the asset losses reached 19.4%.The energy carrier correction the day before was 5% amid The Wall Street Journal report about the OPEC's intention to increase production by 500.0 thousand barrels a day to compensate for a possible decline of raw materials in Europe, but the information was denied by participants of the organization, after which the "black gold" resumed its positions at the opening session level earlier this week, and trading instrument USD/CAD retreated from its peak at 1.3475, preparing to develop a downward trend.The long-term prospect of the price movement remains for the "bears" in the market. The day before the investors had no success in testing the resistance levels of 1.3530-1.3475. It is likely that further decline will help the asset to update the minimum at the levels of 1.3250-1.3200, and after the retreat from the threshold of 1.3200, the negative dynamics will strengthen and the testing of the value 1.2970 will follow.Resistance levels: 1.3475, 1.3530.Support levels: 1.3250, 1.3200.Gold priceThe price of the precious metal is correcting in a downtrend, testing the level of 1744.00.The upward trend of the asset ended, after which the "bears" regained the asset advantage due to the alarming news background from China, which has already confirmed the death of its citizens, who were infected with the Covid-19 infection. Authorities have now begun closing industrial centers, raising fears of a complete lockdown in the provinces, which may increase pressure on the gold position.China held the leading position among consumers and miners of the asset, which is only confirmed by updated data from processing centers in Switzerland. For October, the country exported 159.57 tons of bank metal, the bulk of which was shipped to China, accounting for a share of 43.7 tons. This level is slightly lower than the 44.02 for September, reflecting lower demand due to increased quarantine measures in some provinces of the Celestial Empire. Turkey, according to the statistics, holds second place, as gold shipments to Ankara for October totaled 31.4 tons, behind September imports of 32.2 tons, confirming a trend of locally lower metal consumption.Support levels: 1725.0, 1665.0.Resistance levels: 1780.0, 1850.0.
Nov 22, 2022 Read
Forex analytical forecast for today, November 21, for NZD/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY & EUR/USD
EUR/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Forex analytical forecast for today, November 21, for NZD/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY & EUR/USD NZD/USD: the pair is testing local highsThe currency of New Zealand shows a moderate decline, being at 0.6120, with the prospect of further decline.A block of macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand is a moderate support for the currency pair NZD/USD. According to the figures, credit card spending for October increased by 24.8%, previously showing a strengthening of 34.1% in September, while analysts were expecting 5.3%. By the end of today's trading investors expect the release of statistics on the balance of imports and exports for October. Current forecasts call for the national deficit level to strengthen to -$12.52 billion from last year's -$11.95 billion. The mid-week release of data from the RBNZ (Reserve Bank of New Zealand) officials meeting is announced. Economists expect the regulator to continue the pace of monetary policy tightening and raise the interest rate by 0.75%, bringing the target to 4.25%.Resistance levels: 0.6155, 0.6200, 0.6250 and 0.6300.Support levels: 0.6100, 0.6050, 0.6000, 0.5941.USD/CAD: bulls are developing an advantage over the US dollarIn the Asia-Pacific trading session the instrument USD/CAD keeps the "bullish" dynamic obtained a week earlier after the quotes' update of the low of September 15, now testing the level of 1.3400.The head of the Central Bank of Canada noted that, according to the forecasts of the board, the national economy will reach about zero growth dynamics by mid-2023, which only gives more confidence to the "hawks" to continue to increase interest rates, despite the pressure on a number of households, which will only increase against the rising cost of living and increased borrowing costs. According to the governor, a premature unwinding of the adjustment program would negate any earlier efforts to fight inflation, allowing the latter to resume growth, and the Bank of Canada would be forced to approve more drastic measures, putting unprecedented pressure on business in the short term.Resistance levels: 1.3440, 1.3500, 1.3550, 1.3600.Support levels: 1.3356, 1.3300, 1.3226, 1.3150.USD/JPY: The next level for the pair is 140.45The trading instrument USD/JPY is displaying a multidirectional trend and has the prospect of breaking through the level of 140.45. Investors' hopes for further monetary tightening on the part of the national regulator act as a moderate support for the USD.Meanwhile, macroeconomic indicators from the USA are keeping neutral. Thus, by the end of the previous week investors appreciated the statistics on residential real estate sales on secondary market, which showed a 5,9% decline in October, having earlier decreased by 1,5% against experts' expectations of -0,1%. Absolute sales fell to 4.43 million from 4.71 million, against market expectations of 4.38 million.Macroeconomic indicators from Japan turned out to be more optimistic. For example, consumer prices for October rose to 3.7% from 3.0% last month, falling short of analysts' expectations of 2.7%. Excluding food commodities and energy segment, the acceleration of inflation was 2.5% against the previous 1.8%, beating experts' forecast of 1.9%. Japan's head of monetary authorities is confident that the core inflation rate may lose any chance of strengthening in 2023, returning to a stable 2.0% level despite uncertainties in the global and national economy.Resistance levels: 140.79, 141.50, 142.54, 143.51.Support levels: 139.90, 138.50, 137.50, 136.50.Read more: USD/JPY: chart, forecast for today, currency pair overviewEUR/USD: The bulls are set to resume their advantage in the pairThe currency pair EUR/USD is slightly correcting testing the level of 1.0270, thus getting back from the active quotes' growth in the first half of the current month.The rhetoric of the national regulators on toughening of the monetary policy should be taken into account for a long-term forecast of the instrument movement. The EU currency has a chance to get stronger against the "American", since the US FRS is likely to decrease the growth rate of the key index amid its approaching the optimal threshold of 4.75%-5.00%, which will make the Euro more attractive for investors. The ECB (European Central Bank) is not yet close to its inflation target, which gives the agency an opportunity to increase the key figure more aggressively at a rapid pace.Resistance levels: 1.0460, 1.0780.Support levels: 1.0090, 0.9740.
Nov 21, 2022 Read
Forex analytical forecast for today, November 17, for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD & Brent oil
AUD/USD, currency, EUR/USD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, Forex analytical forecast for today, November 17, for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD & Brent oil EUR/USD: US dollar is under pressureThe EUR/USD has been in an uptrend for two weeks in a row, hitting 1.0400. However the positive dynamics is supported not so much by the strengthening of the European currency as by the correction momentum of the American currency due to the October publication of the US CPI, which showed a significant reduction of its potential.The annual CPI reading was down to 7.7% from 8.2% previously, while producer prices were down to 8.0% from 8.4% previously. The publications reinforced hopes for a correction in the pace of further monetary policy tightening from the US Federal Reserve and fueled a potential resurgence of investor activity in the segment of risky assets. FOMC officials are attempting to avoid an overly optimistic wave for the market, noting that weaker inflation in October does not yet point to a victory over inflation, noting that the key rate cap has a chance of correcting, contrary to the current set plans. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar continues to decline and at the time of writing.Resistance levels: 1.0498, 1.0620.Support levels: 1.0376, 1.0253, 1.0131.USD/JPY: Japanese regulator is set to stabilize inflationThe yen made a successful attempt to recover value on the back of the weakening US currency, which was complemented by currency interventions on the initiative of the Central Bank of Japan, allowing the trading instrument to test 139.62.In his speech early last week, central bank governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated the monetary authorities' commitment to "dovish" monetary policy to support economic activity and achieve stability and sustainability in the fight against inflation, which has encouraged the government to raise wages that lagged three quarters in a row. The government will hold consultations with labor and business representatives in the spring and should reach an agreement on a 3.0% wage increase for employees, rather than the 2.0% increase that was previously planned. According to the plans of the members of the central bank's board, this option will be possible due to the reduction of the national inflation rate to the target of 1.5% at the background of the correction impulse in the cost of raw materials in the world.Support levels: 137.65, 132.86.Resistance levels: 140.80 and 145.00.AUD/USD: trend can change to positive"The bulls keep trying to break over the psychological threshold of 0.6725, wishing to take full advantage of the moment of the weak American currency.Australia's regulator at the end of its extreme monetary parameters meeting confirmed its intention to continue to actively raise the key indicator, however it noted that the degree of correction is closely linked to the incoming macroeconomic indicators and preliminary estimates of employment and price pressures. Officials had projected that consumer prices would slow to an upper 3.0% as early as December, but the value was later revised upward to 2025. Meanwhile, the Australian Bureau of Statistics confirmed an increase in payroll indexation, which shows the average worker's pay, excluding bonuses, to 1.0% in the quarterly display, the highest since 2012 to the previous period, and average wages reached 3.1% versus 2.6% in the past, but behind a 7.3% increase in inflation.Resistance levels: 0.6725, 0.6900, 0.6990.Support levels: 0.6500, 0.6290.Read more: AUDUSD: analysis, signals, forecast for today and quotesOil market signalsThe benchmark Brent crude oil brand recorded positions below the level of 91.00.The price of "black gold" is again under the influence of "bears" on the data on decrease of weekly reserve in the USA. According to API (American Petroleum Institute), the value decreased by 5.833 million barrels against 5.618 million barrels increase a week earlier, while EIA (Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy) reported that the indicator correction was -5.400 million barrels from 3.925 million barrels earlier. The rate of decline of the strategic reserve in the U.S. updated the 1984 value of 392.1 million barrels, indicating a steady demand for hydrocarbons, which is only confirmed by the report of Petro-Logistics, which is a service to track the movement of oil tankers. As it follows from the statistics, there has been a decline in crude supplies to the cartel countries since the beginning of this month. The service analysts expect the negative indicators to increase by the end of November and the correction dynamics for exports to 1.0 million barrels per day, which meets the OPEC+ targets of reducing production capacity by 2.0 million bpd, set a week earlier in Vienna.Support levels: 89.20, 82.87.Resistance levels: 94.00, 98.87.
Nov 17, 2022 Read
Forex analytical forecast for today, November 16, for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Crude oil & Gold
EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Forex analytical forecast for today, November 16, for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Crude oil & Gold EUR/USD: Euro has retreated from its local peakThe single currency of the Eurozone is moving in different directions against the U.S. dollar, testing the level of 1.0350. Earlier EUR/USD demonstrated sharp appreciation, having successfully updated the local peak since July 1, however the pair failed to consolidate its positions.The reports on the missile strike on the territory of Poland allowed the American currency to strengthen considerably during the evening trading. At the moment there is no complete information about the incident, but the country's government has already announced increased combat readiness of military units and special services employees, and representatives of NATO and G7 countries jointly declared their full support to conduct an exhaustive investigation. Fears are growing among investors that the incident will lead to a new round of tension in the Russia-Ukraine war.Resistance levels: 1.0400, 1.0450, 1.0500, 1.0550.Support levels: 1.0350, 1.0300, 1.0253, 1.0200.GBP/USD: Inflation data release expectedThe GBP/USD currency pair is showing an uptrend, testing 1.1858 due to support from the macroeconomic bloc.As it follows from the September report, the British unemployment rate rose from 3.5% to 3.6%, which resulted in the layoffs of 52.0 thousand people, beating expectations of only 25.0 thousand, but the dynamics of average pay without bonuses rose by 5.7%, outperforming last month's reading of 5.5%, completely offsetting the number of layoffs, and taking into account the bonuses - by 6.0%, beating analysts' forecast of 5.9%. Economists expect consumer prices for goods and services to update at 10.7% as expected, versus 10.1% last month.Resistance levels: 1.1990, 1.2250.Support levels: 1.1730, 1.1360.Gold SignalsGold prices are under a moderate decline, moving away from the high of August 15, which was updated earlier. The precious metal is trading at 1770.00 in anticipation of stimulus. Demand for the U.S. currency has risen noticeably amid extreme events in Poland, where two missiles fell, putting pressure on gold. The market fears that this event could cause an escalation of the war between official Moscow and Kiev.In addition, the asset is under pressure from "hawkish" rhetoric of U.S. regulatory officials. On Monday, Christopher Waller, a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, made a speech, arguing that the interest rate should be raised while maintaining the same rate of appreciation in order to reduce inflation to the target threshold of 2.0%. Earlier, investors noted signs of a gradual decline as manufacturing inflation strengthened 0.2% for October, better than the 0.5% increase expected for the month, and slowed to 8.0% from 8.4% for the year, ahead of economists' expectations of 8.3%.Resistance levels: 1786.28, 1800.00, 1816.62, 1828.22.Support levels: 1765.30, 1752.87, 1734.91, 1720.00.Read more: Are the minutes of the Federal Reserve meetings useful for investors?WTI Crude Oil SignalsAsian trading session shows a slight decline in WTI oil, which is now testing the level of 85.60.Earlier the asset showed a cautious strengthening, but was unable to consolidate its positions, as a sudden increase in demand for the U.S. dollar on reports about missile explosions in Poland. Among investors there are growing fears that such an incident may provoke an increase in the intensity of military action in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which will lead to a reduction in demand for hydrocarbons and impose additional bans on the supply of raw materials from Russia. Meanwhile, earlier it was confirmed that Ukraine had suspended oil pumping through the Druzhba pipeline due to power outages.Resistance levels: 87.00, 88.52, 90.00 and 92.58.Support levels: 85.00, 83.00, 81.00, 79.24.
Nov 16, 2022 Read
Forex analytical forecast for today, November 15, for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD & USD/CHF
EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Forex analytical forecast for today, November 15, for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD & USD/CHF EUR/USD: EU GDP at risk of a slowdownThe trading instrument is testing the 1.0408 mark.The weakening U.S. currency gives an opportunity for the euro to get stronger due to the positive macroeconomic data and the downward trend in natural gas prices. So, the day before the statistics showed a 0.9% strengthening of industrial capacities in the European Union for September, exceeding expectations of growth of 0.3%, strengthening the annual figure by 4.9% against expectations of 2.8%. The situation may be subject to correction on the background of the euro zone GDP data announced today, the preliminary forecasts for Q3 expecting the figure to decline from 0.8% in the past to 0.2% in the present, while the annual figure may reduce the upward strengthening from 4.3% to 2.1%, which will give a negative signal to investors.Resistance levels: 1.0370, 1.0590.Support levels: 1.0258, 1.0078.GBP/USD: Pound is about to reverse the trend in the pairQuotes from the trading instrument GBP/USD are moving in different directions staying at the level of 1.1760.Experts are expecting the publication of the statistics on consumer prices which will be announced tomorrow and which will help predict further steps of the Bank of England regarding monetary parameters. At the moment the market allows the inflation rate to strengthen to 10.6% on an annualized basis and to 1.7% for a month. The government is expected to present its budget plan on November 17. Preliminary estimates suggest that the authorities will fix the idea of reducing government spending on the one hand and increasing the tax burden on the other hand in order to overcome the historical crisis of the population's wealth due to a decrease in the real income of citizens against the backdrop of rising costs of energy and consumer goods, which were driven by the military conflict between Russia and official Kiev.Resistance levels: 1.1800, 1.1853, 1.1933, 1.2000.Support levels: 1.1700, 1.1600, 1.1459, 1.1300.NZD/USD: local high testingThe trading instrument is trading at 0.6100, being around the local peak for September 13."Bulls", as before, have low activity on the U.S. dollar, because investors are waiting for hints on the further course of the U.S. Federal Reserve. The day before they published an optimistic bloc, which among other things showed positive changes with consumer inflation, which allowed the markets to adjust forecasts for the next stage of raising the key value by the next 0.75% after the working meeting of the agency in December. Currently, only 20% of experts are confident of such a result, while most analysts expect a rate hike of only 0.50%. However, some economists concede that the U.S. Federal Reserve officials might tone down the "hawkish" rhetoric by focusing on a smoother increase in the central rate because the CPI exceeds the target level by 4 times.Resistance levels: 0.6155, 0.6200, 0.6250, 0.6300.Support levels: 0.6100, 0.6050, 0.6000, 0.5941.Read more: The history of Federal Reserve (Fed) and its functionsUSD/CHF: The US dollar continues to remain under pressureIn the Asian trading session, the currency pair USD/CHF is under the influence of contradictory factors, testing the level of 0.9440.According to the latest publication from FINMA (Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority), the regulator is examining the growing risks to the national financial system in the short term, as systemic monetary tightening, the availability of credit to the population and the vulnerability of cyberspace are a serious threat. In addition, the supervision examines large among market participants decentralized financial system applications related to blockchain infrastructure, providing open access, due to which customers have high risks of losing their capital due to market volatility, technical software failure, cyber attacks or fraudulent actions. However, analysts don't see that as a big threat because the audience is limited in scope.Resistance levels: 0.9478, 0.9550, 0.9600, 0.9650.Support levels: 0.9400, 0.9350, 0.9300, 0.9200.
Nov 15, 2022 Read
Forex analytical forecast for today, November 14, for AUD/USD, USD/JPY, Gold & Crude Oil
AUD/USD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Forex analytical forecast for today, November 14, for AUD/USD, USD/JPY, Gold & Crude Oil AUD/USD: the pair is trading within correctional trendThe instrument is under the influence of the mixed trend, retreating from the active dominance of the "bulls" the day before. Recall that previously published data on consumer prices in the U.S. last week, the "Aussie" successfully updated to its local high of September 20 as a result of active growth.Investors are refraining from increasing trading activity on the market because no key macroeconomic indicators will be published and no announcements have been made. However on Tuesday is scheduled release of the final minutes of the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia), in addition expected statistics from China, to which economists noted particular interest, because the latter want to assess industrial production of the Celestial Empire, as well as retail sales. The current estimates see manufacturing capacity falling to 5.2% from 6.3% and sales falling to 1.0% from 2.5%.Resistance levels: 0.6715, 0.6750, 0.6800, 0.6853.Support levels: 0.6650, 0.6572, 0.6520 and 0.6450. Read more: AUDUSD: analysis, signals, forecast for today and quotesUSD/JPY: dollar is correcting after the US dataThe American currency shows moderate upward momentum, being at the local low of August 31, updated during the previous week. The instrument traded at 139.40, which has growth prospects, but only technical potential, however investors are interested in the publications announced for Tuesday on the production prices and comments of the US Federal Reserve officials.According to the announcement from Japan, investors are expecting the release of the key Q3 GDP (gross domestic product) data tomorrow. It is expected that the dynamics will drop to 0.3% from 0.9% in the quarterly figure and to 1.1% from 3.5% for the year. In addition, industrial capacity data for September are scheduled for release tomorrow, with analysts agreeing on a 1.6% decline. By the end of this week, investors will be focused on consumer price data. Contrary to the Japanese regulator's long-standing stance on a soft monetary policy stance, inflation is likely to move downward, as evidenced by current forecasts - the index is expected to fall to 2.7% by November from the current 3.0%. Meanwhile, current account indicators for the first two quarters have shown the steepest year-to-year decline since the onset of the economic crisis in 2008, slipping to 4.8458 trillion yen, or 58.6% less.Resistance levels: 139.90, 140.78, 141.50, 142.54.Support levels: 138.50, 137.50, 136.50, 135.50. Gold signalsThe precious metal strengthened at 1761.0, continuing strong gains that look more and more like a major positive momentum.The greenback has fallen to the lows of late summer, at 106,700 on the USD Index, versus 112,000 a week earlier, and as gold is tied to the "American," the metal is strengthening rapidly. Another powerful impetus for the strengthening of the asset is the aggravation of the crisis in the electronic assets market. Recall that the first cryptocurrency BTC is at 16000.00, against a price range of 45000.00-47000.00 at the beginning of the year, and prospects for improvement in the cryptocurrency market are small. Thus, within the last weeks, major exchanges such as Voyager Digital LLC and Celsius went bankrupt. The situation was exacerbated with the crisis of the FTX trading platform, which received a new round of global media attention after the refusal of the largest cryptocurrency exchange Binance to continue participation in the investment agreement with FTX and refused to deal in FTT tokens amid liquidity disruption, which occurred due to the misuse of deposit funds of traders.Resistance levels: 1780.0, 1850.0.Support levels: 1746.0, 1695.0. Brent Crude Oil signalsThe price of the benchmark Brent crude oil is moving around 95.35.The positions of the asset have moved to strengthening due to the decision of the US Treasury Department to continue the possibility of oil deals with a number of banks from Russia until May 15. As follows from the current arrangements, the current agreement was terminated on December 5, when the embargo on shipments of "black gold from Russia by sea" was approved. Analysts pointed out that taking into account the current time and circumstances it is impossible to fully oust Russia from the energy market, while the intentions of the USA to cross its own ban gives traders hope for relative stability for some time yet.Resistance levels: 97.60 and 103.60.Support levels: 91.80, 82.75.
Nov 14, 2022 Read
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