Forex analytical forecast for today, September 6, for EURUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD & Oil

AUD/USD, currency, EUR/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, Forex analytical forecast for today, September 6, for EURUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD & Oil

EUR/USD: The German government has started a program to support the population

The euro zone currency is trading at a moderate gain, having retreated from another record low since the beginning of this week's session. EUR/USD reached 0.9950 within the framework of upward dynamics, but the "bullish" impulse has a vulnerable potential.

The day before the EU macroeconomic statistics was published, which showed negative trends. The services sector of Germany from S&P Global for August didn't meet expectations of zero dynamics and reached 47,7 points against 48,2 points in the past. The same indicator of the whole economic alliance was 49.8 points against 50.2 points in the previous one. Eurozone retail sales for July were up slightly by 0.3%, having posted a 1.0% decline in June the day before. The annual rate of sales declined to -0.9% from the previous -3.2%, with market expectations of -0.7%. The market remains under pressure from anxious sentiment about the outlook for the eurozone economy and further developments in the energy sector crisis. At the moment the ECB is not giving up on further interest rate hikes to combat rising inflation, economists fear a recession coming soon. Households are already hoping for additional government support as current electricity and gas rates make it impossible for them to pay their utility bills properly, and the situation will only worsen in the winter.

  • Resistance levels: 1.0000, 1.0050, 1.0100 and 1.0150.
  • Support levels: 0.9950, 0.9900, 0.9850, 0.9800.

AUD/USD: The pair is trading at 0.6800

The Australian currency is showing a mixed trend, testing the level of 0.6800. "Bulls" are trying to intercept the initiative in the pair, but notable resistance is provided by the regulator's decision to increase the interest rate.

According to preliminary estimates the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) has adjusted the rate by 50 basis points to the target of 2.35% explaining the move by the need to turn inflation around to the 2-3% target range. Regulator officials remain wary amid foggy prospects for the pace of global economic recovery, new hotbeds of Covid-19 and rising energy costs. The RBA's current forecast is for the consumer price index to reach 7.5% by the end of this year, a value that will subside to 4.0% in 2023 and continue to decline to a range with an upper ceiling of 3.0% in 2024. The day before analysts released data on cost of goods and services growth showing a 0.5% decline in inflation for August, an earlier adjustment of 1.2%, and annual growth slowed to 4.9% from 5.4% in the past. The Commonwealth Bank reported that Service Business Activity for August rose to 50.2 points from 49.6 points, against expectations of zero growth.

  • Resistance levels at 0.6839, 0.6900, 0.6950 and 0.7000.
  • Support levels: 0.6800, 0.6750, 0.6700, 0.6650.

USD/CAD: the asset trades multidirectional

Within the Asian trading session, the instrument USD/CAD shows a moderate decline, testing the indicator 1.3100. A number of technical factors contribute to the negative dynamics, nevertheless the global situation on the markets is not able to change sharply.

The American currency got support on expectations of continuation of aggressive measures from FRS of the USA on monetary parameters within the framework of the meeting announced on September 21, and the Canadian regulator will announce the decision this week. Economists' preliminary estimates suggest a 0.75% interest rate hike to the 3.25% target at once. July statistics on trade balance for exports and imports is also expected to be released; PMI from Ivey will also be announced. The current week will finish with the expected publication of the August report on the employment market situation. Analysts expect the number of employed to rise by 15.0 thousand against a drop of 30.6 thousand last month, but unemployment is also at risk of rising from July's 4.9% to 5.0%.

  • Resistance levels: 1.3150, 1.3200, 1.3241, 1.3300.
  • Support levels: 1.3100, 1.3050, 1.3000, 1.2950.

Oil market review

Brent "black gold" quotations made a successful attempt to reverse the price movement, after the unsuccessful attempt of breaking the level of 93.50, which allowed the asset to develop an upward dynamic.

The day before, the decision to set a cap on the cost of Russian oil and gas was announced, creating an additional positive incentive. Moreover, with their decision, the G7 finance ministers vetoed the issuance of insurance to ships that transport energy resources at an increased price, in order to stabilize the markets and reduce record inflation. As part of the mirror measures, Russia has refused to continue supplying oil to countries that violate the market pricing scheme. The legislative base for approval of the upper price limit has not been developed, but experts are confident in its approval, and investors have already started to put a probable deficit of energy resources into the price. Taking into account the whole news background and geopolitical crisis, the asset has a prospect of strengthening to the level of 102.00 and even more within the medium-term outlook.

  • Resistance levels: 102.00, 110.00.
  • Support levels: 93.55, 86.50.
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Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/CAD, USD/TRY and Silver for Thursday, May 23, 2024
EUR/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, USD/TRY, currency, Silver, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/CAD, USD/TRY and Silver for Thursday, May 23, 2024 EUR/USD: downward trend may intensifyThe EUR/USD pair has shown continuous growth since the middle of last month, as investors hoped for an early adjustment of monetary policy in the United States. However, this week the pair reached the level of 1.0864 Murray [6/8], after which it began to adjust downwards.Today, the negative dynamics slowed down due to the publication of data on business activity in the eurozone. In May, the indices showed the highest growth rates for the current year: the index for the industrial sector rose from 45.7 to 47.4 points, the index for the service sector increased from 51.7 to 52.3 points, and the composite index reached 53.3 points. However, the long-term fundamentals remain unfavorable. Experts predict that the European Central Bank (ECB) will switch to monetary policy easing earlier than the US Federal Reserve System (Fed).Resistance levels: 1.0900, 1.0986, 1.1047.Support levels: 1.0780, 1.0620, 1.0559.USD/CAD: Canadian inflation at three-year lowThe USD/CAD pair demonstrates a multidirectional trading dynamics, holding near the 1.3685 mark, which is close to the local highs on May 9, which were updated the day before. On Wednesday, the instrument was supported by the minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting on May 1.Investors continue to analyze the April statistics on inflation in Canada, published on Tuesday. The consumer price index decreased from 2.9% to 2.7% year-on-year and from 0.6% to 0.5% month-on-month. The base index also showed a decrease: from 2.0% to 1.6% in annual terms and from 0.5% to 0.2% on a monthly basis. According to Statistics Canada, the slowdown in overall inflation was caused by lower prices for food, services and durable goods. The decrease in the cost of motor fuel also contributed: excluding this factor, the annual consumer price index dropped to 2.5% from 2.8%. Thus, inflation approached the Bank of Canada's target level of 2.0%. In April, the governor of the regulator, Tiff Macklem, said that it was necessary to obtain confirmation of a steady easing of price pressure before starting to adjust the cost of borrowing. At the April meeting, the monetary authorities left the interest rate at 5.00%, the highest since 2001.Resistance levels: 1.3700, 1.3730, 1.3762, 1.3800.Support levels: 1.3675, 1.3650, 1.3616, 1.3580.USD/TRY: Turkey plans full regulation of cryptocurrency transactionsDuring the Asian session, the USD/TRY pair shows moderate growth, striving to break through the level of 32.2000, in the expectation that the current monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve System will remain unchanged for a long time.The Turkish lira is under pressure due to the difficult economic situation in the country, where inflation exceeds 69.0%. According to the Turkish Institute of Statistics (Turkstat), the consumer price index increased from 68.5% to 69.80% year-on-year, which is the highest value since November 2022. Despite this, the official authorities declare an increase in confidence in the national economy and hope for a gradual change in the negative trend.Meanwhile, the Justice and Development Party of Turkey has put forward a bill aimed at full control over transactions with digital assets, including taxation of their purchase and sale. The bill also provides rules for licensing trading platforms, exchanges and brokers, as well as regulating their relationships with customers. These measures are necessary to exit the "grey list" of the Financial Action Task Force on Money Laundering (FATF). In addition, the document assumes the participation of the Council for Scientific and Technological Research of Turkey in joint work, which contributes to the development of blockchain technologies and related software in the country.Resistance levels: 32.3000, 32.45000, 32.6000, 32.7500.Support levels: 32.1500, 32.0000, 31.8306, 31.6877.Silver market overviewSilver is showing a moderate decline, developing the bearish momentum that formed the day before. The quotes have retreated from the recent high at 32.50 and are testing the 30.40 mark for a downward breakdown. Traders are carefully assessing the likelihood of monetary policy easing by the world's leading central banks.Yesterday, the minutes of the May meeting of the US Federal Reserve System were published. As expected, members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) noted a significant slowdown in the decline in inflation, which may take longer to reach the target levels of 2.0%. Some officials did not rule out the possibility of further tightening monetary policy if necessary. In addition, the April statistics on inflation in the UK attracted the attention of investors. The consumer price index decreased from 3.2% to 2.3% in annual terms, which turned out to be higher than the projected 2.1%, and on a monthly basis — from 0.6% to 0.3%, with expectations of 0.2%. The base rate decreased from 4.2% to 3.9%, while analysts had predicted 3.6%. Against this background, market participants reduced their expectations regarding a possible interest rate cut by the Bank of England in June.Resistance levels: 30.50, 30.75, 31.13, 31.70.Support levels: 30.15, 29.84, 29.35, 29.00.
May 23, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD and gold for Wednesday, May 22
EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Gold, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD and gold for Wednesday, May 22 EUR/USD: the exchange rate tends to break out of the downward range of 1.0880–1.0560During the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair shows mixed dynamics, remaining near the level of 1.0850. Neutral macroeconomic data do not allow the euro to significantly strengthen its position.In April, the producer price index in Germany increased by 0.2%, as in the previous month, which was lower than the projected growth of 0.3%. This led to a decrease in the annual rate from -2.9% to -3.3%, against expectations of -3.2%. Such negative dynamics contribute to a further slowdown in consumer inflation, providing the European Central Bank (ECB) with an additional argument for lowering interest rates at the June meeting. The EU data also show diverse results: in March, the volume of construction decreased from 0.38% to 0.10%, while the labor cost index increased from 3.40% to 4.90% in the first quarter. The EU's trade balance increased from 22.8 billion euros to 24.1 billion euros in March.Resistance levels: 1.0885, 1.1010.Support levels: 1.0820, 1.0705.GBP/USD: annual UK inflation slowed to 2.3% in AprilThe GBP/USD pair is showing an upward trend, updating local highs since March 21. Investors are closely watching the UK's April inflation statistics. The consumer price index decreased from 3.2% to 2.3% year-on-year, exceeding expectations of 2.1%, and from 0.6% to 0.3% month-on-month, which also exceeded the forecast of 0.2%. The producer price index, excluding seasonal fluctuations, increased from 0.7% to 1.1%, which is slightly lower than the projected 1.2%. These data may encourage the Bank of England to begin easing monetary policy this summer, as previously mentioned by Ben Broadbent, deputy governor of the regulator, and Hugh Pill, chief economist.Yesterday, investors analyzed the May index of industrial orders from the Confederation of British Industrialists (CBI), which fell from -23.0 to -33.0 points, against expectations of -20.0 points. This was the fastest decline since November, but many manufacturers expect the situation to improve in the summer months, while not predicting a significant price increase. In the near future, the minutes of the next hearing of the inflation report will be published in the UK, which will help to understand the reaction of officials to the latest price data and clarify the prospects for a possible interest rate cut in the coming months. With the opening of the American session, investors' attention will switch to April statistics on sales in the secondary housing market in the United States, where growth is expected from 4.19 million to 4.21 million after a previous decrease of 4.3%.Resistance levels: 1.2734, 1.2771, 1.2810, 1.2850.Support levels: 1.2700, 1.2650, 1.2600, 1.2568.NZD/USD: New Zealand currency shows growth againThe NZD/USD pair is showing active growth, recovering from the "bearish" sentiment prevailing at the beginning of this week: the instrument is testing the level of 0.6125 for an upward breakdown, which is facilitated by the results of the meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).As expected, the regulator kept the interest rate at 5.50% and positively assessed the effect of the measures already taken to combat high inflation. RBNZ representatives expressed confidence that the current restrictive policy will reduce inflation to the target range of 1.0–3.0% by the end of 2024. The accompanying statement noted that the slowdown in prices in the service sector is slower than expected, so the transition to "dovish" rhetoric is not advisable yet. The pressure on the labor market is gradually easing, which leads to an increase in unemployment and lower wages, which also helps to reduce inflationary risks.Despite the market reaction to the RBNZ meeting, many investors are in a hurry to take profits, closing some long positions, preferring to wait for today's publication of the minutes of the May meeting of the US Federal Reserve. These documents may clarify the prospects for an interest rate cut by the US regulator in the second half of 2024. The current main scenario assumes the beginning of monetary policy easing in September or November, and at least two reductions of 25 basis points each are expected by the end of 2024.Resistance levels: 0.6130, 0.6152, 0.6183, 0.6200.Support levels: 0.6100, 0.6082, 0.6047, 0.6030.Gold market overviewThe price of gold has been steadily growing for the fourth month in a row: on Monday, quotes updated annual highs around 2449.89, but then rolled back, and the current positive dynamics is restrained by comments from US Federal Reserve officials.Investors had hoped that the publication of April inflation data in the United States would prompt the regulator to start lowering interest rates in September, but recent statements by Fed representatives disappointed the market. Economists recognized the decrease in inflationary pressure as a positive factor, but noted that the April data was not enough to correct monetary policy. The chairman of the US Federal Reserve for Supervision, Michael Barra, stressed that the data at the beginning of the year were "disappointing", so there are no grounds for lowering interest rates yet. In the evening, investors are waiting for the publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee, which may shed light on the prospects for further actions by the regulator and cause serious fluctuations in the market.Resistance levels: 2437.50, 2500.00, 2562.50.Support levels: 2348.00, 2250.00, 2187.50.
May 22, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for USD/CAD, USD/JPY, gold and oil for Tuesday, May 21, 2024
USD/CAD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for USD/CAD, USD/JPY, gold and oil for Tuesday, May 21, 2024 USD/CAD: National Bank of Canada announced an increase in housing affordabilityThe USD/CAD pair is showing moderate growth, moving away from the local lows reached on April 10 and updated at the end of last week. Currently, the instrument is testing the 1.3635 mark for an upward breakdown, while market participants are waiting for new drivers to appear.Inflation data for April will be published in Canada today. According to preliminary forecasts, the annual consumer price index will decrease from 2.9% to 2.7%, continuing to move towards the regulator's target levels of about 2.0%. On a monthly basis, the indicator is expected to decrease from 0.6% to 0.5%.The National Bank of Canada noted an improvement in the real estate market. Mortgage payment as a percentage of income at the median house price in the first quarter of 2024 decreased by 3.1%, reaching 58.9%, which is the best quarterly performance since 2019. The greatest improvements are observed in Toronto, Vancouver and Victoria due to lower prices per square meter of housing, lower mortgage interest rates and an increase in median incomes. Analysts believe that the current monetary policy of the Bank of Canada, aimed at preserving the cost of borrowing, indicates a possible transition to "dovish" rhetoric, which will support demand for housing.Resistance levels: 1.3650, 1.3675, 1.3700, 1.3730.Support levels: 1.3616, 1.3580, 1.3550, 1.3524.USD/JPY: on the eve of the publication of Japanese trading indicatorsDuring the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair shows a short-term uptrend, returning to the highs recorded on May 1, and is trading around the 156.44 mark.After the recent strengthening last week, the yen weakened again due to the intervention of the Bank of Japan: the volume of interventions was less than at the beginning of the month, and over the past four trading sessions, the exchange rate has almost returned to previous levels. Macroeconomic data also failed to support the Japanese currency: in March, the index of business activity in the services sector fell by 2.4%, although analysts expected an increase of 0.1%. Japan's foreign trade data will be published tomorrow at 01:50 (GMT+2): experts expect exports to increase by 11.1% compared to the previous 7.3%, and imports to grow by 9.0% after a decrease of 4.9% earlier, which will lead to an adjustment of the trade balance to -339.5 billion yen after the previous 366.5 billion yen.Resistance levels: 156.90, 158.50.Support levels: 155.90, 153.60.Gold market overviewThe XAU/USD pair is showing a corrective decline, moving away from the record highs reached at 2450.00. During the Asian session, the instrument is testing the 2415.00 mark for a downward breakdown, in anticipation of the emergence of new market drivers. Investors' attention is focused on tomorrow's minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting and April inflation statistics from the UK. The consumer price index is expected to decline from 3.2% to 2.1%, approaching the target levels of the Bank of England. If these forecasts are confirmed, the probability of an interest rate cut by the British regulator in June will increase significantly. In addition, the Bank of Canada will also present inflation data, and analysts predict a decrease from 2.9% to 2.7%, which is still significantly higher than the regulator's target level.The growth in demand for gold is supported by concerns about increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The situation worsened after reports of the death of Iranian President Seyid Ibrahim Raisi in a plane crash, which increased uncertainty over a possible change in the country's foreign policy. Additional support for gold is provided by the recovery of economic activity in China, where the authorities announced new measures to stabilize the affected real estate sector. Recall that China is one of the largest importers of gold, and the People's Bank of China is actively increasing its gold and foreign exchange reserves.Resistance levels: 2431.44, 2450.00, 2470.00, 2500.00.Support levels: 2400.00, 2378.39, 2353.79, 2336.50.Oil market overviewDuring the Asian session, the price of WTI Crude Oil continues to develop the downward momentum that began the day before. Quotes declined from the highs reached on May 1, amid the strengthening of the US dollar. Market participants expect an early interest rate cut from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England in June. It is also assumed that the US Federal Reserve System (FRS) will take measures to ease monetary policy, but analysts do not predict a transition to a softer exchange rate until September.Investors are looking forward to the OPEC+ meeting, which will be held on June 1. Analysts believe that representatives of the cartel will discuss the extension of current restrictions on oil production for the second half of the year, which can support price stability in the face of a weak recovery in global demand. In addition, the oil market is under the influence of political uncertainty in Iran after the deaths of President Syed Ibrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian in a helicopter crash in East Azerbaijan province. Iran is actively increasing its hydrocarbon production, ranking third in terms of volume among OPEC members, and its main buyer is China. Despite the political changes in Iran, experts are confident that this will not lead to significant changes in the oil market. The premium for geopolitical risk is now tending to zero, compared with $12 per barrel in October and $2 in April, when there were mutual attacks between Iran and Israel.Resistance levels: 79.07, 80.00, 81.00, 82.00.Support levels: 78.00, 77.00, 76.00, 75.00.
May 21, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and USD/CHF for Friday, May 17, 2024
AUD/USD, currency, EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and USD/CHF for Friday, May 17, 2024 EUR/USD: experts expect inflation to fall in the eurozone in AprilDuring the Asian trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair rolled back from yesterday's highs reached on March 21, and is now checking the 1.0855 level for the possibility of further decline. At the same time, the market is tensely awaiting updated data on consumer inflation in the eurozone.On Wednesday, data showed that the eurozone economy expanded by 0.3% in the first quarter, and the annual growth rate was adjusted from 0.1% to 0.4%. In April, the consumer price index in Italy rose by 0.1%, which led to a slowdown in annual price growth from 1.2% to 0.8%, the lowest among the major EU countries. Today, at 11:00 GMT+2, the updated consumer price index for the eurozone is expected to be published, which, according to preliminary estimates, will decrease from 0.8% to 0.6% monthly, maintaining the annual level at 2.4%. The base rate is likely to decrease from 1.1% to 0.7% and from 2.9% to 2.7% per annum, approaching the target level of the European Central Bank.Resistance levels: 1.0880, 1.1010.Support levels: 1.0820, 1.0710.GBP/USD: industrial production in the United States has stalled at zero growthThe GBP/USD currency pair continues to move down, strengthening the "bearish" trend that began a day earlier after moving away from local highs on April 10. Corrective movements are exacerbated by technical factors, while the US dollar is under pressure due to recent macroeconomic statistics from the United States.Catherine Mann, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England, is scheduled to speak at 10:00 GMT+2 today, presumably to discuss the latest economic data. Earlier, another representative of the Bank of England, Megan Green, expressed the opinion that before taking measures to reduce the cost of borrowing, it is necessary to wait for more obvious signs of a decrease in inflationary pressure. She noted that the slowdown in consumer price growth is currently associated with continued wage growth. According to the latest data, UK GDP increased by 0.2% year-on-year in the first quarter after declining by 0.2% in the previous period, exceeding analysts' expectations of zero change. Quarterly GDP growth accelerated to 0.6% after a 0.3% decline in the fourth quarter of 2023, surpassing forecasts that were 0.4%. Meanwhile, industrial production fell from 1.0% to 0.5% in March, although experts expected an increase of 0.3%.Resistance levels: 1.2700, 1.2734, 1.2771, 1.2810.Support levels: 1.2650, 1.2600, 1.2568, 1.2539.AUD/USD: technical aspects reinforce the bearish trend at the end of the weekThe AUD/USD currency pair showed a moderate decline, checking the 0.6660 level for the possibility of further decline and continuing to develop the downward trajectory that began the day before after moving away from the highs on January 12. By the end of the week, there is an increase in the "bearish" trend, mainly due to technical factors, while analysts analyze April inflation statistics in the United States and Australian labor market data.The decline in the US core consumer price index from 3.8% to 3.6% year-on-year and from 0.4% to 0.3% for the month is unlikely to have a significant impact on the Federal Reserve's decisions on borrowing costs in the near future, as indicators are still significantly above target levels. It is expected that any decisions will be postponed until the autumn. According to the Australian labor market, 38.5 thousand new jobs were created in April, which significantly exceeds analysts' expectations of 23.7 thousand. Changes in full-time employment showed a decrease of 6.1 thousand, while part-time employment increased by 44.6 thousand. The labor force participation rate adjusted from 66.6% to 66.7%, and the unemployment rate increased from 3.9% to 4.1%, confirming assumptions about a possible easing of monetary policy by the Reserve Bank of Australia, although such changes are unlikely to occur before December.Resistance levels: 0.6700, 0.6750, 0.6802, 0.6850.Support levels: 0.6667, 0.6646, 0.6622, 0.6600.USD/CHF: pressure to lower the exchange rate is expected to increaseIn the context of the strengthening of the US dollar, the USD/CHF currency pair shows corrective movements, being at the level of 0.9069, despite the stable economic indicators of Switzerland.According to information from the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), the country's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by 0.2% in the first quarter, reflecting the slow dynamics in the industrial sector. In April, the producer price index rose by 0.6%, reaching 107.5 points, but the annual figure showed a decline of 1.8%. A report from the International Labour Organization (ILO) indicates that the number of people employed in the first quarter increased by 1.4% compared to last year, while the unemployment rate was 4.3%.Resistance levels: 0.9100, 0.9210.Support levels: 0.9020, 0.8890.
May 17, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, silver and oil for Thursday, May 16, 2024
EUR/USD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Silver, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, silver and oil for Thursday, May 16, 2024 EUR/USD: GDP of Eurozone grew by 0.4% in the first quarterThe EUR/USD currency pair shows a corrective movement, holding at 1.0881, thanks to recently published macroeconomic data.In the first quarter, eurozone GDP grew from -0.1% to 0.3%, in line with forecasts and reaching an annual growth of 0.4% against the previous 0.1%. This trend is supported by an increase in the March industrial production index, which increased by 0.6% month-on-month, exceeding expectations set at 0.5%, and reducing the annual decline from -6.3% to -1.0%. On Friday, the market's attention will be focused on consumer inflation data: it is assumed that in April the consumer price index will maintain the level of 0.6% monthly and 2.4% per annum. The day before, Claes Noth, head of the Dutch Central Bank, expressed the opinion that price pressures in the eurozone are changing, which increases the chances of achieving the inflation target next year. In turn, Pierre Wunsch, the head of the Central Bank of Belgium, indicated that the European Central Bank is considering a two-fold reduction in interest rates.Resistance levels: 1.0920, 1.1010.Support levels: 1.0840, 1.0710.USD/JPY: economic slowdown in Japan continuesThe USD/JPY currency pair continues to follow the downward trend set a day earlier, with quotes near the 153.82 mark and an update of the minimum values since May 6.Analysts attribute the strengthening of the yen to possible currency interventions by the Bank of Japan against the background of weak macroeconomic indicators of the country: GDP for the first quarter decreased by 0.5%, which turned out to be worse than analysts' expectations, which predicted a decrease of 0.3% and stagnation at 0.0%. The annual GDP index fell by 2.0% compared to the previous indicator of 0.0%. The main factor in the deterioration of economic dynamics was the decline in consumer spending, which deepened from -0.4% to -0.7% in the first quarter. Nevertheless, in March, industrial production showed an increase from 3.8% to 4.4% month-on-month and a decrease in the annual decline from -6.7% to -6.2%. A report from the Bank of Japan is expected to be published next week, which will provide additional information on the extent of possible currency interventions.Support levels: 153.00, 150.80.Resistance levels: 154.80, 156.80.Silver market overviewThe price of silver has moved away from the peak values of February 2021, reached at the beginning of the trading session on Thursday, and has now stabilized around the 29.44 mark.Silver quotes received support from the latest US inflation data for April, which met analysts' expectations and increased the likelihood of an early rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. The annual consumer price index decreased from 3.5% to 3.4%, remaining above the target level of 2.0%. The monthly rate slowed from 0.4% to 0.3%. Excluding food and energy resources, the base index also decreased from 3.8% to 3.6% per annum and from 0.4% to 0.3% monthly. In addition, the market noted an additional decrease in the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in May from -14.3 to -15.6 points, while forecasts were -10.0 points. US retail sales stagnated in April after rising 0.6% in the previous month, although an increase of 0.4% was expected.Resistance levels: 29.84, 30.15, 30.50, 30.75.Support levels: 29.35, 29.00, 28.80, 28.52.Oil market overviewLast week, WTI crude oil prices tested the level of 77.75 and ended the day above this mark yesterday, supported by a reduction in hydrocarbon reserves and a slowdown in inflation in the United States.According to a report by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy (EIA), over the week, the volume of strategic oil reserves in the United States decreased by 2.508 million barrels, which significantly exceeded analysts' expectations of a decrease of 0.400 million barrels, and previous data showed a decrease of 1.362 million barrels, which contributed to the growth of quotations. Oil prices are also supported by the weakening of the US dollar, due to a decrease in inflationary pressure: in April, the consumer price index fell from 0.4% to 0.3%, falling below the expected level of 0.4%, and the base index was 0.3% instead of the expected 0.4%. If the inflation rate continues to slow down, the officials of the Federal Reserve System may take a softer position, which will entail pressure on the national currency and further strengthen energy prices.Resistance levels: 81.93, 84.53, 87.47.Support levels: 77.75, 75.60, 72.11.
May 16, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF and GBP/USD for Wednesday, May 15, 2024
EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF and GBP/USD for Wednesday, May 15, 2024 EUR/USD: euro has reached new local highsThe EUR/USD pair is showing slight growth, developing a bullish momentum in the short and medium term, updating the local highs reached on April 10. At the moment, the instrument is testing the 1.0820 level, while investors are waiting for the publication of today's macroeconomic data.Yesterday, inflation data for April were published in Germany: the consumer price index rose from 0.4% to 0.5% on a monthly basis and remained at 2.2% on an annual basis, while the harmonized index amounted to 0.6% on a monthly basis and increased from 2.3% to 2.4% on an annual basis. Statistics on economic sentiment from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) supported the euro: the index for the eurozone rose from 43.9 points to 47.0 points, exceeding forecasts at 46.1 points, and the indicator for Germany rose from 42.9 points to 47.1 points with expectations of 44.9 points. The index of current business conditions in Germany also showed positive dynamics, rising from -79.2 points to -72.3 points. In general, the level of business sentiment has reached a two-year high, which allows experts to hope for an acceleration in the pace of economic recovery in the region.Resistance levels: 1.0820, 1.0842, 1.0863, 1.0900.Support levels: 1.0800, 1.0765, 1.0730, 1.0700.USD/JPY: IMF recommended the Bank of Japan to continue adjusting ratesThe US currency is losing ground in the USD/JPY pair during the Asian session, correcting after recent growth, which led to an update of local highs from May 1. Investors have reduced their long positions to hedge risks ahead of the publication of US inflation data today at 14:30 (GMT+2).The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recommended that the Bank of Japan continue to gradually tighten monetary policy and adjust interest rates. The IMF stressed that the purchase of government bonds can help mitigate sharp changes in yields that could undermine macro-financial stability during this important transition period. In addition, the fund's experts left forecasts for Japan's real gross domestic product (GDP) at 0.9% in 2024 and 1.0% in 2025. They also expect consumption to recover in the second half of 2024 and 2025, thanks to the agreed wage increases achieved in March.On Thursday at 01:50 (GMT+2), Japan's GDP data for the first quarter will be published, with an expected decrease from 0.1% to -0.3% on a quarterly basis and from 0.4% to -1.5% on an annual basis. It is also expected that the March statistics on industrial production will show an increase from -0.6% to 3.8%.Resistance levels: 156.50, 157.00, 157.50, 157.98.Support levels: 156.00, 155.50, 155.00, 154.50.USD/CHF: consolidation before the release of US inflation dataThe US dollar is holding near the 0.9056 level during the Asian session, developing a "bearish" trend that began the day before. The USD/CHF pair is trying to break through the 0.9050 mark downwards, in anticipation of the publication of important macroeconomic statistics from the United States on inflation. This indicator reflects changes in the level of retail prices for a certain set of goods and services, including food, transportation, utilities and healthcare, and has a significant impact on the Fed's monetary policy decisions.Current forecasts suggest a slowdown in the annual consumer price index from 3.5% to 3.4% by the end of April, while monthly growth will remain at 0.4%. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, is likely to decrease from 3.8% to 3.6% in annual terms and from 0.4% to 0.3% on a monthly basis over the same period. Retail sales data for April will be published at 14:30 (GMT+2), and analysts expect a decrease from 0.7% to 0.4%, while sales excluding the automotive market may fall from 1.1% to 0.2%. Against the background of these expectations, American investors have already estimated the data on the producer price index for April, which showed an increase of 0.5% after the previous decrease of -0.1%, which exceeded the forecast of 0.3%, and in annual terms the indicator increased from 1.8% to 2.2%.Resistance levels: 0.9071, 0.9100, 0.9130, 0.9150.Support levels: 0.9037, 0.9000, 0.8964, 0.8935.GBP/USD: labor market strengthened the pound's positionThe British currency shows multidirectional dynamics, remaining near the 1.2600 mark and local highs reached on May 3. Yesterday, the pair showed significant growth, despite the predominance of "bears" for a long time.The British currency received support due to strong statistics on the labor market. The unemployment rate increased from 4.2% to 4.3%, and employment decreased by 177.0 thousand people, which is better than preliminary forecasts of -215.0 thousand. However, the average wage growth, taking into account bonuses, remained at 5.7% instead of the expected 5.3%, and excluding bonuses amounted to 6.0%. In the first quarter of this year, there was also an improvement in labor productivity: a decrease of -0.3% compared to -0.9% in the previous period. Thus, the employment sector is showing signs of slowing down, which may give the Bank of England grounds for a gradual easing of monetary policy. However, there remain risks of rising consumer prices due to wage adjustments.Support levels: 1.2550, 1.2430.Resistance levels: 1.2630, 1.2760.
May 15, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, AUD/USD, cryptocurrencies and oil for Tuesday, May 14
AUD/USD, currency, EUR/USD, currency, Ethereum/USD, cryptocurrency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, AUD/USD, cryptocurrencies and oil for Tuesday, May 14 EUR/USD: Germany's April CPI is in line with analytical forecastsDuring the morning trading session in Asia, the EUR/USD pair showed fluctuating movements, remaining near the 1.0785 level. Investors remain cautious, refraining from active trading until the publication of important economic data from the United States and the eurozone.In April, German inflation was in line with expectations, noting an increase of 0.5% and confirming an annual rate of 2.2%, which is consistent with economists' forecasts. The harmonized consumer price index, adapted to EU standards, showed an acceleration from 2.3% to 2.4%. According to preliminary estimates, the Spanish consumer price index may increase from 3.2% to 3.3%. Important data on eurozone GDP for the first quarter are expected on Wednesday at 11:00 (GMT+2), forecasts indicate stability of the indicator at the level of 0.3% quarterly and 0.4% annual growth. The market's attention will also be focused on the indicators of industrial production, which, according to forecasts, may show a decrease of 0.2% in monthly dynamics after the previous growth of 0.8%, and an improvement in the annual index from -6.4% to -1.8%.Resistance levels: 1.0810, 1.0890.Support levels: 1.0760, 1.0660.AUD/USD: Australian authorities predict a decrease in inflation by the yearThe AUD/USD pair is slightly losing ground, stabilizing near the 0.6600 level. Amid the lack of significant news, the market is in a state of expectation, where investors are weighing their steps ahead of key events, especially in the United States, where inflation data for April is expected to be published tomorrow.In Australia, data on the state of the labor market for April will be announced on May 16: analysts predict an increase in employment by 23.7 thousand people, after a decrease of 6.6 thousand in the previous month. At the same time, it is assumed that unemployment will increase from 3.8% to 3.9%. The presentation of the budget plan is also in the focus of investors' attention today. According to recent forecasts, inflation should fall to 3.75% by mid-2024 and to 2.75% by mid-2025, re-entering the Reserve Bank of Australia's target range. However, the authorities said last Sunday that it is expected that the overall inflation rate could reach 2.0-3.0% by the end of this year, while representatives of the RBA believe that the indicator may remain at 3.6% in the first quarter and rise to 3.8% by June. Finance Minister Jim Chalmers stressed that the budget will pay special attention to measures to counter price pressures that have a significant impact on the cost of living of the population.Resistance levels: 0.6622, 0.6646, 0.6667, 0.6700.Support levels: 0.6600, 0.6578, 0.6558, 0.6540.Cryptocurrency market overviewLast week, the ETH/USD rate continued to decline, following the general trend of the market, under the influence of both monetary and regulatory factors that put pressure on other key assets. Investors are expressing concern about the possible continuation of high rates by the US Federal Reserve System until the end of the year, despite the slowdown in the labor market. US inflation data for April, which will be published on Wednesday, is expected to show a decrease in the index, but this is unlikely to change the strict position of the regulator.ETH is also under additional pressure from the uncertainty surrounding future decisions by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Soon, on May 23 and 24, the deadline for reviewing applications from VanEck and ARK Invest for the creation of spot funds based on ETH expires, but forecasts regarding a positive result are disappointing. Unlike previous cases of approval of bitcoin ETFs, there is no information about consultations between the regulator and representatives of interested companies, which may lead to a possible postponement or refusal to consider applications for ETH ETFs until the autumn. In addition, there are signs that the American authorities have begun to consider ETH as an unregistered security and are collecting information about the activities of its developers. In this context, the co-founder of Ethereum, Joseph Lubin, pointed out that the SEC had actually reclassified ETH as an illegal asset without notifying the public.Resistance levels: 3125.00, 3281.25, 3437.50.Support levels: 2812.50, 2500.00, 2187.50.Oil market analysisDuring the Asian trading session, WTI Crude Oil prices show mixed changes. Some support for prices is provided by the anticipation of the publication of the OPEC report, scheduled for today at 13:00 GMT+2. At the same time, many investors refrain from opening new positions, preferring to wait for the US inflation data, which are expected tomorrow at 14:30 at the same time.In the context of the expected OPEC report, market participants hope to find out updated forecasts for oil production volumes. For example, since the beginning of the year, several countries, including Russia and Saudi Arabia, have initiated voluntary production cuts totaling 2.2 million barrels per day in order to maintain market stability. Iraqi Deputy Oil Minister Basim Mohammed Khudair expressed Iraq's commitment to the OPEC+ agreement, but pointed out difficulties with its implementation, doubting the possibility of extending current production restrictions. Traders also expect information about the situation in the Middle East, which could lead to significant supply disruptions if the conflict worsens. The upcoming OPEC meeting is scheduled for June 1, and according to analysts, there are no changes in production plans. The International Energy Agency predicts that oil demand in 2024 will reach a record of more than 103 million barrels per day.Resistance levels: 79.07, 80.00, 81.00, 82.00.Support levels: 78.00, 77.00, 76.00, 75.00.
May 14, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for NZD/USD, USD/CAD, Gold and Oil for Monday, May 13, 2024
USD/CAD, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for NZD/USD, USD/CAD, Gold and Oil for Monday, May 13, 2024 NZD/USD: the pair checks the 0.6600 level for a possible declineThe NZD/USD pair is showing mixed dynamics, holding near the 0.6000 level and trying to strengthen the "bearish" trend that emerged at the end of last week. At this stage, investors are being cautious, refraining from opening new positions until the publication of US inflation data, which is expected on Wednesday. It is predicted that core inflation for April may show a decrease to 3.6% per annum from the previous 3.8% and to 0.3% monthly from 0.4%. Retail sales statistics will also be released, which is important for assessing domestic consumption, which is a key element of inflation risks. Total sales are expected to fall from 0.7% to 0.4%, while the figure excluding cars will decrease from 1.1% to 0.2%.Earlier this week, support for the NZD/USD pair came from recently released data. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of New Zealand showed an increase in April, increasing from 46.8 to 48.9 points. Although successive interest rate increases since October 2021 have led to a slowdown in economic activity, price pressures are likely to remain stable due to high levels of migration, which exceeded forecasts by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). Also, data from China released over the weekend showed an acceleration in the consumer price index in April from 0.1% to 0.3% year-on-year and an improvement from -1.0% to 0.1% month-on-month. Although the producer price index remained in negative territory, its decline slowed from -2.8% to -2.5%. Additionally, investors' attention was drawn to a slight decrease in the index of activity in the service sector from Business NZ in April from 47.2 to 47.1 points. RBNZ's inflation expectations for the second quarter were adjusted from 2.5% to 2.33%, which may contribute to RBNZ's softer monetary policy in the near future.Resistance levels: 0.6030, 0.6047, 0.6082, 0.6100.Support levels: 0.6000, 0.5975, 0.5950, 0.5920.USD/CAD: the expectation of sideways dynamics in the near futureIn the Asian trading session, the USD/CAD pair is actively testing the 1.3680 level, aiming to overcome it upwards. Meanwhile, market activity remains at a moderate level, as participants from the United States expect new catalysts for price changes during the week.On the other hand, Canadian traders are carefully studying employment data: April figures indicate an increase in the number of employed by 90.4 thousand, which significantly exceeds the previous value of -2.2 thousand and analysts' expectations of 18.0 thousand. The average hourly wage in the country decreased from 5.0% to 4.8%, while the unemployment rate remained at 6.1%, despite forecasts of its increase to 6.2%.Resistance levels: 1.3700, 1.3730, 1.3762, 1.3800.Support levels: 1.3650, 1.3616, 1.3580, 1.3550.Gold market analysisThe XAU/USD pair is experiencing a correction, retreating from the peak values on April 22, which were updated last week. Currently, gold is trying to overcome the support level of $ 2350.00 in anticipation of new factors that may affect the price movement.The gold market continues its upward trend, despite a decrease in net speculative positions, according to the latest report from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Over the past week, the volume of net speculative positions decreased to 199.6 thousand from 204.2 thousand, reflecting a decrease in investor activity in anticipation of new catalysts in the market. The positions of the bulls, backed by real assets, amounted to 189,194 thousand against 26,062 thousand for the bears. Sellers increased their positions by 1,028 thousand, while buyers reduced them by 2,979 thousand amid expectations of new movements in gold.Resistance levels: 2378.39, 2400.00, 2431.44, 2450.00.Support levels: 2353.79, 2336.50, 2320.00, 2300.00.Oil market overviewBrent Crude Oil prices are experiencing a correction, holding above the $82.00 mark. The easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East is affecting the situation: Hamas representatives have expressed readiness for a ceasefire, and the Houthis have reduced the number of attacks on ships in the Red Sea.Meanwhile, Iraqi Oil Minister Hayyan Abdul Ghani announced the country's intention to withdraw from the OPEC+ agreement on production cuts, which caused a violent reaction. However, the next day, his deputy, Basim Mohammed Khudair, clarified that the problem lies in the difficulty of meeting the current limits, which have a negative impact on the Iraqi economy. The question of Iraq's position on the future OPEC+ agreement remains open, but it is already clear that many participants are ready to increase production, which may have an impact on the market.Resistance levels: 83.20, 86.10.Support levels: 81.50, 78.70.
May 13, 2024 Read
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