
Today, the key event in the financial markets will be the publication of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February. According to forecasts, the overall CPI index grew by 0.2% on a monthly basis (against 0.5% in January) and amounted to 2.8% year-on-year (against 3.0% previously). The core CPI index is expected to reach 0.3% mom and 3.2% YoY.Markets are closely following the report after the unexpectedly high January reading. An important question remains whether this was a temporary effect related to the revision of prices at the beginning of the year, or whether it indicates continued inflationary pressures.The Bank of Canada (BoC) will also hold a meeting today, at which the interest rate is expected to decrease by 25 bps to 2.75%. This step is aimed at protecting the Canadian economy from the effects of US tariffs. The market consensus is also leaning towards this decision, as the slowdown in the economy requires a more lenient monetary policy.Main newsJapan: wage growthMajor Japanese corporations, including Toyota, have agreed to fully meet the demands of trade unions for wage growth, which averaged 6.1%. This is the most significant growth in recent decades. Now investors' attention is shifting to small and medium–sized enterprises, which form the backbone of the Japanese economy - will they be able to afford similar increases?Strong wage growth supports domestic demand and strengthens the case for further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ).Ukraine and the USA: Truce and strategic agreementsThe US and Ukrainian delegations have completed negotiations, following which Kiev agreed to a 30-day truce mediated by Washington. In response, the United States will restore military assistance and resume intelligence sharing.The parties also reached an agreement on the development of Ukraine's critically important mineral resources, which could enhance the region's investment attractiveness. However, the final approval of the deal depends on Russia's reaction.USA: increase of tariffs on metalOn March 1, 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports came into force, which increases the risk of a recession in the United States. President Trump initially threatened to raise tariffs to 50% on imports from Canada, but then backed down when Ontario agreed to cancel retaliatory measures.This uncertainty caused sharp fluctuations in financial markets, which were already under pressure due to Washington's large-scale protectionist steps.US labor market dataJOLTs showed 7.74 million job openings in January, which is higher than expected (7.63 million). At the same time, the number of involuntary layoffs has decreased, which may have a positive impact on consumer confidence.However, the NFIB index, which measures the mood of small businesses, continued to fall for the third month in a row, reaching its lowest level since the beginning of the election campaign. This reflects the concern of entrepreneurs about tariff policy and possible cuts in government spending.Stock markets: continued declineUS stock indexes closed down again.• S&P 500 fell 0.8%, approaching the correction zone• Dow Jones lost 1.1%• Nasdaq declined by only 0.2%, while the Russell 2000 index even showed a slight increase (+0.2%)Defensive sectors, including healthcare and consumer goods, were under the most pressure, while cyclical assets showed less drawdown. European stocks also fell sharply (Stoxx 500 -1.7%), but the morning rise in futures indicates a possible rebound amid news of a truce in Ukraine.Bonds and the foreign exchange marketIn the foreign exchange market, the euro, the Swedish krona and the Norwegian krone became the growth leaders, while the Japanese yen weakened slightly.Yields continued to rise in the bond market:• The yield on 10-year German bonds increased by 6 bps, while 2-year bonds decreased by 2 bps.• In the US, 10-year Treasury bonds also rose by 6 bps, leading to increased rate volatilityThe spread between Italian and German bonds remained stable, indicating that there was no significant flight to safe haven assets.ResultsToday, markets are focused on US inflation data and the Bank of Canada's decision. Stock markets remain under pressure, but the morning rise in futures indicates a potential reversal. The foreign exchange market supports the euro and Scandinavian currencies, while American bonds remain highly volatile.