- Results of previous trading July Brent crude futures: $68.46 (+3.04%)
- June WTI crude futures: $66.05 (+3.88%)
- The spread between current Brent and WTI contracts is about $3.4 in favor of Brent.
In the details, oil prices continued to recover on Monday amid declining optimism about the Iran nuclear deal, as well as positive forecasts from Goldman Sachs.
Last week, the price declined for three days in a row after statements from several senior officials from different countries that Iran and the United States had made progress in negotiations. This week, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken made his comments.
"What we haven't seen yet is whether Iran is ready and willing to do what it has to do. We do not have an answer to this question yet," Blinken said, sowing a seed of doubt in market participants about the imminent lifting of sanctions against Iran. According to the Secretary of State, at the current stage, the countries managed to clarify what actions each of the parties should take to return to the 2015 deal.
However, a number of practical issues remain to be resolved. Iran, for its part, on Monday extended the agreement on the monitoring of nuclear facilities with the IAEA, which expired a day earlier. This was stated by both organizations.
The agreement is extended until June 24. Before the US unilateral withdrawal from the nuclear deal in 2018. Iran produced about 3.8 million b/d and exported about 2 million b/d. After the resumption of sanctions, production fell almost twice. As the Biden administration came to power, Iran began to gradually restore production, appreciating its chances of success in the negotiations. At the moment, production in the country, according to Reuters, is 2.5 million b/d, which means the potential for increasing production of about 1.3 million b/d, or about 1.3% of total global consumption.
Investment bank Goldman Sachs maintains a strong bullish view on oil, despite the threat of growth in Iranian exports. According to the bank's analysts, the market underestimates the potential for demand recovery even in this scenario. Experts note that the OPEC+ countries can compensate for any increase in production from Iran by reducing production.
The bank expects $80 per barrel of Brent in the fourth quarter due to a jump in demand, which will be driven by the opening of global economies on the background of vaccination. Global oil demand may grow by 4.6 million b/d by the end of the year, with most of the increase, according to the bank, occurring in the next 3 months.
Brent futures recovered most of last week's decline and closed Monday trading at around $68.5 per barrel. The quotes were in the same trading range where they spent most of May. The view of the instrument remains neutral. This week, the next round of US-Iranian talks will take place. If the parties reach an agreement, this may negatively affect oil prices and lead to a re-descent to the area of $66 per barrel.
Late this evening, the API will publish preliminary estimates of oil reserves in the United States. In the morning, Brent futures are trading 0.3% higher than the previous day's closing level.
The inversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve is considered the most accurate sign that a recession is near. The norm is that yields on long-term bonds are higher than those on short-term bonds. When it is the other way around, that is the inversion. That is the case right now: the yield on two-year U.S. Treasuries is higher than the yield on ten-years.It looks like this on the chart. The difference between long and short bond yields is below zero. Gray lines indicate recessionary periods.The difference in the yield of 10- and 2-year treasuries. SourceWhy is the inversion happening?An investor thinks like this: "Soon there will be a crisis. The Fed will cut rates to support the economy. That means bond prices will rise. Long-term bonds will go up the most. So should I buy 10-year Treasuries?"That said, if the capital is substantial, the decision should be made well in advance - say, six months in advance. And so, when there are a lot of these investors in the market, a paradox happens: short bonds are still waiting for the next Fed rate hike, while long bonds are already starting to wager on a future rate cut.Inversion = recession?This indicator does not always predict it correctly. Also, historically, the time from inversion to recession varies greatly, from half a year to 2 years. If you spread out the maps, even that prediction is more accurate. And the recession is already "predicted" by macrostatistics and company reports.Rather, an inversion would only foretell the end of the Fed's rate hike cycle. That said, the first 2022 inversion happened earlier in the year, and now it has worsened - a record for the last 40 years.However, we are now living in the era of QE (quantitative easing) - which means long treasuries may be bought not by investors but by the Fed and/or the U.S. Treasury itself. In that case, "guessing on an inversion" might not work at all.So what about the recession?Without treasuries, it is clear that one is on the horizon:Business activity and consumer demand are falling;major companies are downsizing;the cost of refinancing is rising;the energy crisis adds to the problem;China "closed" on the covid.When will the Fed cut rates?On December 13-14 it will probably be raised by at least another 0.5%. And that's not the limit: the market is laying down an increase of up to 5%. The Rothschilds are even hinting at 6.789%. So, if your capital is small, it's too early to get into U.S. stocks. 
Major online retailer Amazon.com Inc. will stop testing its automated delivery robot Amazon Scout, a company spokeswoman said, after the issuer realized that the program was not fully meeting the needs of its customers.The company is currently winding down or "refocusing" the program and will work with engaged employees so they can continue working for the organization, Amazon spokeswoman Alice Carroll said, adding that it is not abandoning the project entirely.Amazon began testing the all-electric Scout, which is the size of a small cooler and rolls down sidewalks at pedestrian speeds in Washington state in 2019, and then expanded testing to Southern California, Georgia and Tennessee.Amazon shares on NASDAQ were down 0.54% to $120.3 per paper in trading on Oct. 6, and corrected another 0.2% ($120.06) on the post-market. 
Europe is heavily dependent on Russian gas, accounting for all of Russia's gas exports. However, Russia is far from being the only supplier to the EU; there are other sellers of pipeline gas: Algeria; Libya; Turkmenistan; Kazakhstan.In addition, from Algeria, Libya and the United States comes liquefied gas through terminals in ports.There are also three other pipelines besides the Russian ones. However, they were used in Europe locally, because they were less profitable. Accordingly, the infrastructure was not prepared for them either.Gas pipelines to EuropeTrans-Sahara Gas PipelineThis pipeline will connect Nigeria, Algeria and Europe. It currently carries fuel from Algeria and Libya to Spain and Italy and from there it can be transported to other countries.The pipeline capacity is up to 30 billion cubic meters per year from Nigeria. But the capacity of the sections going to Europe will remain the same. So, annual deliveries will remain at the level of about 10% of European imports.It is important that this pipeline should "live" for a long time: Nigeria has the 10th largest gas reserves in the world. So the gas in the Trans-Sahara pipeline will run out later than in other pipelines.This year, at the instigation of Europe, Algeria and Nigeria returned to discussing the construction of the pipeline, and they want to launch it in the first half of 2023. But since the regions of Africa are turbulent, and there have been problems with repair and maintenance of the pipeline on the Trans-Sahara route before, additional investments and a lot of time may be required for the pipe to be able to pump large volumes.At the same time, due to the conflict between Algeria and Morocco, 12 billion cubic meters of gas are no longer transited to Europe annually. If these countries reconcile, the EU could see an inflow of this gas again.Eastern Mediterranean Gas PipelineThe East Mediterranean Gas Pipeline is used to transport gas from Israel to Greece and Italy. It is a fairly young pipeline, it is supposed to carry 12 billion cubic meters of gas per year. True, the gas reserves in Israel are small - only 0.2% of the world's gas reserves, but there is still the Aphrodite field in Cyprus, which is due to start operating in 2024-25. This year, however, the U.S. stopped sponsoring its development because of environmental concerns and Turkey's involvement.Trans-Caspian Gas PipelineTurkmenistan has the world's 6th largest gas reserves, while Kazakhstan has the 15th largest. The Trans-Caspian pipeline will connect these countries to the Southern Gas Corridor. In its current form, its throughput capacity is about 10 billion cubic meters of gas per year. Turkmenistan itself currently accounts for about 1% of European gas imports.But even here not everything is simple: in order to increase the volume of annual pumping, it is necessary to improve the pipes that go to Europe. And the Trans-Caspian pipeline itself may be difficult to build. Not only that: according to the 2018 convention, Russia may prohibit the creation of new pipelines in the Caspian Sea for environmental reasons.LNGAlmost half of Europe's gas imports are now LNG. It can come by sea from almost all over the world, although it is most profitable to buy African or U.S. gas. But Europe's problem is that it lacks the infrastructure for LNG.Spain could become a new European gas hub. It gets a lot of gas from Algeria and is the most infrastructurally prepared to receive LNG from the U.S. or Qatar. 72% of all Spanish gas imports come by sea in the form of LNG. It is enough to build a pipeline to France so that Europe can receive global LNG through a hub in Spain, but that too takes time and investment.In addition, you also need to build and modify the infrastructure to use LNG. And if a country has been using only classical gas for a long time - like Germany, for example - its infrastructure is hardwired for pipeline gas, and it will be difficult to change it.Another problem is in LNG tankers. There are only about 500 ships in the world, so there might not be enough for everybody at once. Europe alone buys about 3 billion cubic meters of liquefied gas a week - i.e. approximately 6 million cubic meters in the liquid form. To transport them, more than 30 tankers are needed every week, and it is not known whether they will always be available. And as the Russian pipelines are being abandoned, the need for LNG will only grow. This means more tankers will be needed, because other foreign pipelines simply won't be able to cover all the falling out of Russian capacity.As a result, there can be a fight for gas inside Europe. Whoever puts up more bids, that's where it goes. As a result, competition between the countries through which gas is transited cannot be ruled out. This is also true for LNG, which is distributed by pipeline, and for long foreign pipelines. Not only that: there is also competition with countries outside the EU.Will Russia stay in the European market?So far, the three key pipelines mentioned above can cover about half of Russia's supply shortfall. There is potential for volume growth - but it could take years. And even LNG will not solve the problem quickly. It can be brought, for example, to Spain - but this gas can not be delivered to any EU country, you need to build your own domestic pipelines.Thus, Russian gas supplies to Europe will remain for the years to come, though the EU will try to buy it at minimum. But in the long term, Russia itself may have problems: its exports, company revenues and budget will fall. Moreover, the secondary sanctions against countries working with Russia may become tougher after new regions join the Russian Federation. As a result, one cannot fully rely on "friendly" partners either. More about Natural Gas tradingIf you are interested in Natural Gas analytics, we recommend you to visit the analytics page, where you can find the latest analytics on Forex from top traders from all over the world. These analytics will be useful both for beginners and professional traders. The Forex signals service makes it much easier for beginners to make their first steps in trading on the financial markets. The latest Natural Gas forecasts and signals contain support and resistance levels, as well as stop-loss levels. 
Electric car maker Tesla announced lower-than-expected deliveries of electric cars in the third quarter due to logistical problems.According to Refinitiv, Tesla delivered 343,830 electric cars, a record for the world's most expensive automaker, but below the expected 359,162. A year earlier, Tesla delivered 241,300 units. During the quarter, the issuer delivered 325,158 Model 3 compact cars and Model Y SUVs to customers, as well as 18,672 Model S and Model X premium cars.The latter deliveries fell short of Tesla's production maximum of 365,923 electric cars, a rarity for the issuer.Tesla has set an ambitious goal of producing nearly 495,000 Model Y and Model 3 in the fourth quarter of this year, Reuters reported, citing internal documents.Meanwhile, Elon Musk demonstrated a prototype of the Optimus humanoid robot on Sept. 30, predicting that his company could produce millions of robots and sell them for less than $20,000, less than a third of the price of the Model Y.Tesla shares on NASDAQ were down 1.1% to $265.25 a share in trading on Sept. 30, and are momentarily losing 5.47% ($250.74) in premarket trading on Oct. 3. More about Tesla tradingIf you are interested in Tesla analytics, we recommend you to visit the analytics page, where you can find the latest analytics on stocks from top traders from all over the world. These analytics will be useful both for beginners and professional traders. The Forex signals service makes it much easier for beginners to make their first steps in trading on the financial markets. The latest Tesla forecasts and signals contain support and resistance levels, as well as stop-loss levels. 
According to some experts, the coming years could be very difficult for the EU. It is possible that his economy will have to rebuild fundamentally. What will happen to the euro is also a question.What worries the World Bank?Its head David Malpass has named the factors that increase the risk of recession in Europe - weakness of the euro and high inflation. There are risks of a long-term decline in the growth of the European economy.The most important problem is the energy crisis. According to Malpass, it will take years for the global industry to replace Russian energy sources. And the EU is unlikely to solve the energy crisis quickly. The same LNG terminals in Germany are not expected to be built until the second half of 2023.All of this raises the risk of prolonged stagflation. It's all according to the formula: economy doesn't grow - stagnation, but prices go up anyway - inflation.Moreover: the main trading partners are not doing well either, and as a result, demand for European exports may be lower, and it will be harder to import. After all, China's growth is slowing sharply, and production in the U.S. shrank in the first half of the year.Negative forecasts multiply: crisis, recession, GDP declineDeutsche Bank is lowering its outlook for the European market because of the worsening energy crisis. The recession may be deeper and prolonged, analysts say.In addition, from the middle of 2022 to the middle of 2023, the real GDP of the Eurozone will fall by 3%, according to estimates of Deutsche. Of strong concern is winter, where there could be "an even steeper decline."ECB head Christine Lagarde also said that eurozone GDP could fall in late 2022 and early 2023. In the baseline scenario, the regulator still expects GDP growth of 0.9% in 2023, although it is still a strong slowdown: since the beginning of 2022, we have seen growth of 4-5%. And under the unfavorable scenario there will be a decline of GDP by 0.9%. And some of the conditions for such a scenario have already materialized.Not only Europe is under attack: what will happen to the world economy in 2023?It is possible that the entire global economy at risk of recession next year, say the World Bank. The wave of tightening of central bank policy may not be enough to curb inflation, but it may hurt economic growth. As a result, global GDP growth will slow to 0.5% in 2023, already on the verge of a global recession. And despite record growth in 2021, the global economy will never recover to pre-decline levels.What will happen to the euro in 2022/2023?If the EU economy slows down and is on the verge of recession and stagflation, the currency will inevitably weaken as well. Capital from around the world is now fleeing to the U.S., trying to find a safe haven there. And given the projections, the euro may not soon return even to parity with the dollar. And while, for example, the yuan is still supported by a resilient Chinese economy, in Europe the situation is worse.The energy crisis in the EU also plays into the hands of the dollar, but will weaken the euro. After all, the U.S. is one of the countries now supplying energy to Europe instead of Russia. They mostly import LNG, although higher prices on the domestic market may slow down these exports.Not only that, but European companies are shifting production to the U.S. because of expensive energy at home, the WSJ says. And if this continues, the European economy and currency could weaken even further in the long term. But the "greenback" will be just strengthening.In this case, the euro may not return to pre-crisis values in the coming years, it will continue to lose to the dollar.What to expect from the Euro in 2023?Most likely, in 2023 we should not expect to see a significant strengthening of the euro. And then we are in for more uncertainty. Although long-term trends are also against the EU currency. More about EUR/USD tradingIf you are interested in EUR/USD analytics, we recommend you to visit the analytics page, where you can find the latest analytics on Forex from top traders from all over the world. These analytics will be useful both for beginners and professional traders. The Forex signals service makes it much easier for beginners to make their first steps in trading on the financial markets. The latest EUR/USD forecasts and signals contain support and resistance levels, as well as stop-loss levels. 
Major online retailer Amazon.com announced a wage increase for hourly workers in the U.S. that will increase the average starting wage for most front-line warehouse and transportation employees to more than $19 an hour.The company said the increase carries an additional cost of nearly $1 billion over the next year. Amazon is the second-largest private employer in the United States after Walmart Inc. Amazon employed more than 1.1 million people in the U.S. at the end of 2021. As of June 30, the company had more than 1.5 million total employees. Most of those employees are hourly workers who pack and ship merchandise or work in retail stores such as Whole Foods Market and Amazon Fresh.The company is also expanding access to a program that allows employees to get paid more often than once or twice a month, according to the statement.Amazon is facing employee activism and unions at some of its facilities, including a warehouse in Albany, N.Y., where a vote is scheduled for next month. The company is contesting an election last April in which more than 8,000 workers at the warehouse in Staten Island, N.Y., won the right to be represented by a union.Amazon shares on NASDAQ rose 3.15% to $118.01 a share in trading on Sept. 28, and are momentarily losing 1.47% ($116.28) in premarket trading on Sept. 29. 
Electric car maker Tesla plans to keep production at its Shanghai plant at about 93 percent of maximum capacity through the end of 2022, despite recent upgrades, Reuters reported, citing sources.Since the plant opened in late 2019, Ilon Musk's company has sought to run it at full capacity and recently increased weekly production capacity by 30 percent, to 22,000 vehicles. It is noted that the upgraded plant can produce 14,000 Model Y electric cars and 8,000 Model 3s. According to the publication, Tesla now plans to produce 20.5 thousand electric cars per week by the end of the year, a total of 13 thousand Model Y and 7.5 thousand Model 3.According to the China Passenger Car Association, Tesla sales in China jumped nearly 60 percent in the first eight months of 2022. Since August, the company has cut delivery wait times in China by at least four times, to a minimum of a week, in addition to offering an 8,000 yuan ($1,100) discount to Tesla insurance buyers who made delivery between Sept. 16 and Sept. 30.Tesla shares rose 2.51% to $282.94 per share in trading on Sept. 27, and added 1.43% ($287) in the postmarket. 
Electronics and software maker Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) said it will produce the recently unveiled iPhone 14 in India as the tech giant moves some of its production from China.The company unveiled the flagship iPhone 14 at an event in early September, focusing on security updates. "The new iPhone 14 lineup introduces revolutionary new technologies and important security features. We are excited to begin production of the iPhone 14 in India," Apple said in a statement.JPMorgan analysts expect Apple to move about 5 percent of iPhone 14 production from late 2022 to India, which is the world's second-largest smartphone market after China. Apple could produce one in four iPhones in India by 2025, experts say.Apple shares were down 1.51% to $150.43 a share in trading on Sept. 23, and added 0.13% ($150.62) in the postmarket. More about Apple tradingIf you are interested in Apple analytics, we recommend you to visit the analytics page, where you can find the latest analytics on stocks from top traders from all over the world. These analytics will be useful both for beginners and professional traders. The Forex signals service makes it much easier for beginners to make their first steps in trading on the financial markets. The latest Apple forecasts and signals contain support and resistance levels, as well as stop-loss levels.