The oil market analysis. Goldman Sachs expects $80 for Brent
- Results of previous trading July Brent crude futures: $68.46 (+3.04%)
- June WTI crude futures: $66.05 (+3.88%)
- The spread between current Brent and WTI contracts is about $3.4 in favor of Brent.
In the details, oil prices continued to recover on Monday amid declining optimism about the Iran nuclear deal, as well as positive forecasts from Goldman Sachs.
Last week, the price declined for three days in a row after statements from several senior officials from different countries that Iran and the United States had made progress in negotiations. This week, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken made his comments.
"What we haven't seen yet is whether Iran is ready and willing to do what it has to do. We do not have an answer to this question yet," Blinken said, sowing a seed of doubt in market participants about the imminent lifting of sanctions against Iran. According to the Secretary of State, at the current stage, the countries managed to clarify what actions each of the parties should take to return to the 2015 deal.
However, a number of practical issues remain to be resolved. Iran, for its part, on Monday extended the agreement on the monitoring of nuclear facilities with the IAEA, which expired a day earlier. This was stated by both organizations.
The agreement is extended until June 24. Before the US unilateral withdrawal from the nuclear deal in 2018. Iran produced about 3.8 million b/d and exported about 2 million b/d. After the resumption of sanctions, production fell almost twice. As the Biden administration came to power, Iran began to gradually restore production, appreciating its chances of success in the negotiations. At the moment, production in the country, according to Reuters, is 2.5 million b/d, which means the potential for increasing production of about 1.3 million b/d, or about 1.3% of total global consumption.
Investment bank Goldman Sachs maintains a strong bullish view on oil, despite the threat of growth in Iranian exports. According to the bank's analysts, the market underestimates the potential for demand recovery even in this scenario. Experts note that the OPEC+ countries can compensate for any increase in production from Iran by reducing production.
The bank expects $80 per barrel of Brent in the fourth quarter due to a jump in demand, which will be driven by the opening of global economies on the background of vaccination. Global oil demand may grow by 4.6 million b/d by the end of the year, with most of the increase, according to the bank, occurring in the next 3 months.
Brent futures recovered most of last week's decline and closed Monday trading at around $68.5 per barrel. The quotes were in the same trading range where they spent most of May. The view of the instrument remains neutral. This week, the next round of US-Iranian talks will take place. If the parties reach an agreement, this may negatively affect oil prices and lead to a re-descent to the area of $66 per barrel.
Late this evening, the API will publish preliminary estimates of oil reserves in the United States. In the morning, Brent futures are trading 0.3% higher than the previous day's closing level.
Cryptocurrency BTC/USD Yesterday, buyers managed to find support at the level of 32500.00 USD, and they restored the price of bitcoin to the area of the four-hour EMA55. In the evening, the pair broke the lilac resistance of 36000.00 USD, and this morning it was fixed above the red descending trend line. In the near future, we should expect a short-term consolidation of the BTC price around the 38.2% fibo level (37150.24 USD). If the pair manages to stay above this fibonacci level, it is possible to recover to the level of 40000.00 USD. If the bears return the pair below the red trend line, they will continue the downtrend. In this case, in the second half of the week, the decline will continue below the psychological mark of 30000.00 USD. Cryptocurrency ETH/USD Yesterday, the POC line held the price of Ethereum in a short-term consolidation, and in the second half of the day, the pair recovered to the area of average prices. In the morning, the four-hour EMA55 keeps the price of ether from further recovering to the resistance of 2800.00 USD. If the pair fails to break above this moving average, then the recovery will end and the price will return to the June low zone. Cryptocurrency XRP/USD Yesterday, buyers were able to build above-average purchase volumes and restored the XRP price to the four-hour EMA55. At the moment, the level of average prices is holding back the further recovery of the pair and in the near future it is possible that buyers will make attempts to break through to the psychological level of 1.00 USD. However, if the moving average EMA55 holds off a weak bullish onslaught, then we can expect an update to the monthly low before the end of the week. 
Cryptocurrency BTC/USD Yesterday in the first half of the day, buyers kept the pair in the area of average prices. After lunch, sales volumes began to increase and the price fell back below the support of 36000.00 USD, and at the end of the day, the bears broke through the level of 34000.00 USD. As of this morning, the bearish momentum has broken through the support of 33000.00 USD and the bitcoin price continues to decline. We believe that the decline will slow down around the 23.6% fibo level (30595.44 USD), and after the re-test of the psychological mark of 30000.00 USD, the pair may consolidate sideways. Cryptocurrency ETH/USD Yesterday, buyers were unable to form a bullish momentum and break through the resistance of 2800.00 USD. In the afternoon, the bears increased their onslaught and pulled back the price of Ethereum below the three-hour EMA55. As of this morning, the pair has broken through the support of the weekly sideways range of 2500.00 USD and continues to decline. We believe that in the near future, the price will reach the last week's low of 2300.00 USD and slow down the fall in the area of 2200.00 USD. Cryptocurrency XRP/USD Yesterday, the price of XRP turned around in the area of the moving average of EMA55 and rolled back below the level of 0.850 USD. This morning, the pair reached a low at 0.828 USD, slowing the decline, but the fall is not over yet. In the near future, the price will test the level of 0.800 USD and try to consolidate in the sideways direction. 
According to the COT (Commitments of Traders) reports provided by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) - for the week ended last Tuesday:Large speculators (NON-COMMERCIAL) increased their net position to buy EUR/USD by 4.7 thousand contracts to 111.8 thousand. Large speculative players are increasing their net buy position for the eighth week in a row. The net position is the maximum since March 2.Hedgers (COMMERCIAL) increased the net position for selling EUR/USD by 2.7 thousand contracts to 186.3 thousand. Hedger operators are also increasing their net selling position for the eighth week in a row.Open interest decreased by 0.5 thousand contracts to 789.7 thousand.The bullish index of large speculators (the ratio of the number of contracts for buying to the number of contracts for selling) rose by 0.06 to 1.87 for the week.Summary: COT reports on the EUR/USD pair reflect the growth of bullish sentiment in the European currency. Traders have been building up their net position on the euro growth for almost two months. At the same time, the net position has updated the highs for the last three months. The continuation of this trend may contribute to the growth of EUR/USD.At the same time, such a significant net position may hinder the further growth of Euro. Hedgers that trade more long-term, for the third week, increase their positions on the decline of the EUR, and some of them do not rule out a corrective decline in the Euro.Note: COT report data is fundamental and is mainly used for medium and long-term trading. Large speculators, NON-COMMERCIAL (banks, investment funds) usually trade according to the trend. Hedgers, COMMERCIAL (operators, large companies) usually trade against the trend. The net position is the difference between the number of buy and sell contracts (the green line on the chart is the net position of large speculators; the blue line is the net position of hedgers). Open interest is the sum of all open positions in the market. 
Store closures and forced lockdowns at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic last year left cities devastated, with consumers disappearing on the streets and people regularly moving around the city from home to work and back. In the morning, you could enjoy the peaceful singing of birds, and at night you could hear the hum of a new generation of urban explorers - an army of couriers on bicycles and scooters delivering takeaway food.Sales of app developers created to deliver food from restaurants to hungry customers have soared. In particular, the revenue of the company DoorDash, which occupies the largest segment of the food delivery market in America, increased in the first quarter of 2021 three times compared to the same period last year. Sales of its main competitor UberEats showed equally rapid growth. The companies claim that such success in the period of the pandemic is connectedh with an increase in the number of consumers who ordered food delivery for the first time. At the same time, they are not concerned about the reopening of restaurants, since they claim that the market for ready-made food as a whole has expanded over the past year.Investors, in turn, are concerned about whether food delivery startups will ever become profitable. In the 12 months ending March 31, DoorDash suffered a loss of $442 million, while its sales totaled $3.6 billion. The shares, meanwhile, have lost a quarter of their value since the offering in December. Shares in the British firm Deliveroo, which went public in March this year, fell by a third relative to the offering price. Are shareholders right to believe that the food delivery boom is about to end?A new scientific paper suggests that this is actually the case. Elliot Sheen Oblander of Columbia Business School and Daniel McCarthy of Emory University analyzed credit card, geolocation, and restaurant data across America to assess people's need for food delivery.In order to conduct such an analysis, the scientists considered an alternative scenario - what could happen in the world if there were no pandemic. According to them, the growth in the number of buyers and sales volumes would probably slow down in 2020, as consumers ' demand for takeaway food reached its peak. They found that the growth in the revenue of food delivery companies was mainly due to people who usually ate out.Thus, instead of the 120% increase in sales seen last year, the increase would be less impressive. If the restaurants had remained open, the sales growth would have been 40%. Mr. Oblander notes that as soon as the quarantine restrictions in the United States were lifted last year, most of the growth caused by the pandemic and the need to stay at home immediately disappeared.Thus, shareholders have several reasons to worry about the ability of companies to achieve profitability. The first and most obvious is the continuing losses, despite the sales boom: food delivery companies are still spending money down the drain to attract new customers and pay software developers. Second, antitrust authorities in America have filed lawsuits against delivery companies, accusing them of charging excessive fees to restaurants. Finally, regulators in some countries are tightening the terms of payment for couriers: payment is made for each delivery, and there is no fixed salary, which can lead to increased costs for companies.At the same time, according to OpenTable, food in restaurants is now at a level close to the pre-pandemic peak.As the American proverb says: after every holiday comes the reckoning. 
Cryptocurrency BTC/USD Yesterday morning, buyers broke through the resistance of 38000.00 USD and tried to gain a foothold in the area of 39000.00 USD. However, the price of BTC could not stay in the zone of the daily high. Tonight, the bears returned the pair to the area of the three-hour EMA55. The moving average has slowed the decline in the price of BTC, and short-term consolidation is possible in the near future. However, if the sellers strengthen the onslaught, they can break through the support of 36000.00 USD. Cryptocurrency ETH/USD Yesterday, the price of Ethereum broke through the resistance of 2800.00 USD and set a daily high around the mark of 2890.00 USD. At night, buyers tried to test the level of 2900.00 USD, but sellers pushed the price of ether to the area of the three-hour EMA55. If the bears can increase the pressure today, they will push through the level of average prices. If it is not possible to increase sales volumes, then the moving average will withstand the onslaught of bears and the pair will gain a foothold in the consolidation in the area of average prices. Cryptocurrency XRP/USD Yesterday, the price of XRP set a daily high at 1.078 USD, but the pair could not stay in the maximum zone for a long time and rolled back below the level of 1.00 USD. As of this morning, buyers have slightly restored the price, but trading volumes have decreased and the pair can not yet rise above the psychological mark of one dollar per coin. If the bears resume their onslaught today, they will push through the support of the three-hour EMA55 and continue to reduce the price to the area of 0.800 USD. 
Cryptocurrency BTC/USDYesterday morning, despite the rather modest volume of purchases, the BTC/USD pair was able to recover to the area of average prices. The bitcoin price spent the second half of the day in a narrow consolidation, right on the three-hour EMA55 line, and at night the bulls tried to form momentum to break through the resistance of the 38.2% fibo level (37150.24 USD). It was not possible to significantly increase the volume, and this morning the price returned to the moving average of EMA55. If during the day buyers will not be able to find support in the area of average prices, then yesterday's forecast for a pullback to the psychological mark of 30000.00 USD remains, as before, relevant.Cryptocurrency ETH/USDYesterday morning, sales volumes declined, and the price of Ethereum was able to gain a foothold above the POC line (2330.17 USD). In the afternoon, the pair broke through the moving average of EMA55, but small volumes of purchases did not allow the price of ether to test the resistance of 2800.00 USD. As of this morning, the pair's recovery has slowed down, and the price may return to the three-hour EMA55. If the level of average prices does not stop the bears, the pair will roll back to the psychological mark of 2000.00 USD. Cryptocurrency XRP/USDYesterday in the first half of the day, buyers managed to form a strong enough bullish momentum to break through the resistance of the moving average EMA55 and test the psychological level of 1.00 USD. After lunch, the volume of purchases decreased and the price of XRP was stuck in the sideways right at the level of one dollar per coin. At night, buyers tried to continue the recovery and tested the level of 1.100 USD. However, the growth is not supported by large volumes and, most likely, today the pair will roll back to the area of average prices. If the three-hour EMA55 stops the decline, the recovery may continue to the area of 1.200 USD. 
Cryptocurrency BTC/USD Last Saturday, buyers were unable to form a bullish momentum and break through the resistance of the 38.2% fibo level (37150.24 USD). By the end of the day, the price of BTC rolled back to the area of 33500.00 USD. On Sunday, buyers tried to restore the pair to the previous level, but it is not yet possible to overcome the resistance of 36000.00 USD. The market activity is quite low, and if it is not possible to increase the volume of purchases, the pair will not be able to recover above the three-hour moving average of EMA55. Today, the decline may continue to the psychological level of 30000.00 USD. Cryptocurrency ETH/USD On Saturday, in the first half of the day, trading volumes fell to a minimum. After lunch, sellers formed a bearish momentum and the price fell back to the area of 2200.00 USD. Despite a fairly strong momentum, the bears failed to test the purple downtrend line. By the end of the week, the pair recovered slightly, but it is not yet possible to gain a foothold above the POC indicator line (2330.17 USD). There is pressure from sellers, which may increase, and then the price of ether will test the downward trend line around the 2000.00 USD mark. Cryptocurrency XRP/USD At the end of last week, trading was sluggish and buyers on small volumes tried to stay above the red downward trend line. On Sunday, a weak bullish momentum helped the pair recover to the area of average prices, but buyers did not have enough strength to break through the three-hour EMA55. The resistance of this moving average limits the growth to the psychological level of 1.00 USD. There is a chance that today the price of XRP will again fall back below the red trend line. 
Cryptocurrency BTC/USD Yesterday morning, the BTC price tested the 38.2% fibo level (37150.24 USD). This fibonacci level provided support to the pair and the price recovered to the level of 40000.00 USD until the evening. Trading volumes were small and buyers are not yet able to organize a bullish break to the fifty percent fibonacci level (42447.96 USD). The pair settled on its side in the area of the three-hour EMA55 with resistance around the 40000.00 USD mark. With low activity, consolidation in the sideways range will continue and gradually narrow to the moving average of EMA55. Cryptocurrency ETH/USD The price of Ethereum failed to continue rising to the resistance of 3000.00 USD yesterday. Low trading volumes keep the pair in a sideways consolidation with support near the three-hour EMA55. If the bearish pressure resumes, they will break through the average price level and push the price of ether to the POC line (2318.60 USD) by the end of the week. If the moving average withstands the bearish onslaught, then buyers will be able to organize a bullish break above the psychological mark of 3000.00 USD. Cryptocurrency XRP/USD Yesterday morning, the XRP price managed to gain a foothold above the red downtrend line. Due to small volumes of purchases, the bulls were unable to achieve growth and break through the resistance of the three-hour EMA55. As of this morning, the pair is beating in a sideways range just below the psychological mark of one dollar. If buyers form a bullish momentum, the pair may recover to the resistance area of 1.115 USD before the end of the week. 