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Trading idea for the Dollar Index (DXY) dated June 28, 2024

US Dollar Index, index, Trading idea for the Dollar Index (DXY) dated June 28, 2024

At Friday's auction, the dollar index (DXY) rose again to the maximum levels of early May and is trading around 105.70, showing significant growth at the end of the week, whereas on Monday it was trading around the key level of 105.00.

The growth of the dollar was facilitated by the macroeconomic reporting of the United States. The revised GDP figure for the first quarter came out at 1.4%, which is higher than the expected 1.3%. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits amounted to 233 thousand, which is lower than both the forecast value of 236 thousand and the previous figure of 239 thousand. The volume of orders for durable goods increased by 0.1% in May, with a forecast decrease of 0.1%.

Today, markets are waiting for the release of the key inflation indicator for the Fed — the price index of personal consumption expenditures (PCE). The base index is expected to decrease from 2.8% to 2.6% on an annual basis, and from 0.2% to 0.1% on a monthly basis. A decrease in price pressure may increase expectations of easing the Fed's monetary policy, which markets predict for September. If inflation remains high, it will support the dollar and boost U.S. government bond yields. In addition, on Friday, investors will be interested in the May data on personal income/expenses of consumers. The growth of consumer activity and income can have a positive impact on the dollar exchange rate.

Fed officials are in no hurry to change current interest rates, expecting inflation to fall to the target level of 2%. Michelle Bowman, a member of the Fed's board of governors, said that if disinflation stalled, the Fed would have to re-tighten policy. With this in mind, DXY has the potential for further growth and, with the support of the PCE index, it can break above the 106.00 mark.

Based on fundamental factors, indications of technical indicators and graphical patterns, we propose to place a pending order on DXY:

  • Buy Stop 105.80
  • Take Profit 107.00
  • Stop Loss 105.30
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Symbols US Dollar Index

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USD/CHF: Swiss National Bank sharply reduced the rate
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Dec 17, 2024 Read
Forex analysis and forecast for USD/JPY for today, December 17, 2024
USD/JPY, currency, Forex analysis and forecast for USD/JPY for today, December 17, 2024 On Tuesday, USD/JPY is trading with versatile dynamics around the 154.20 mark, not far from the local highs on November 25. The volatility of currency pairs remains restrained, as market participants are awaiting the results of the two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which will be announced tomorrow at 21:00 (GMT+2).According to the CME Group, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is estimated at 95.4%, despite the steady recovery of the American economy and inflation, which has stabilized around 3.0%. At the same time, traders are analyzing possible actions of the Bank of Japan, taking into account the impact of the economic policy of the new White House administration.If President Donald Trump fulfills his promises to impose 25% duties on imports from China, the Japanese regulator is likely to react by devaluing the yen. According to a Bloomberg study, 52% of analysts believe that the Bank of Japan will continue to adhere to a tough policy in January, and 44% expect a rate hike to 0.25% at the December 19 meeting. Some experts point to the role of wage dynamics, believing that it will determine the position of the regulator closer to the spring wage negotiations. Steady wage growth outpacing inflation is considered by the Bank of Japan as a key criterion for revising the rate.The latest economic data from Japan show positive changes. The volume of orders for engineering products in October increased by 5.6% year-on-year after falling by 4.8% a month earlier, which significantly exceeded experts' expectations (0.7%). On a monthly basis, the indicator strengthened by 2.1%, exceeding forecasts. In addition, the Jibun Bank manufacturing business activity index from S&P Global improved from 50.5 to 51.4 points in December, and the index in the service sector increased by 0.3% after a slight decline a month earlier.The Daily chart shows an attempt to reverse the uptrend. The Bollinger Band indicator is expanding, hinting at the possibility of continued growth, but in the short term, the asset may remain overbought. The MACD indicator holds a steady buy signal, and the Stochastic has frozen at the maximum levels.Trading recommendationslong positions after breaking up the level of 154.50 with a target mark of 155.50. We will set a stop loss at the level of 153.87.sales with a confident breakdown down to the level of 153.87. The target mark is 152.70. Stop loss at 154.50.
Dec 17, 2024 Read
EUR/USD: policy divergence between the Fed and the ECB is expanding
EUR/USD, currency, EUR/USD: policy divergence between the Fed and the ECB is expanding FOREX Fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on December 17, 2024A strong economy invariably supports a strong currency — this time-tested principle continues to prove its relevance. The latest business activity data again highlights the superiority of the US economy over the Eurozone. While the aggregate PMI of the Euroblock countries is only approaching the critical mark of 50 points, the American indicator has soared to a maximum in almost three years. Such a difference in economic growth undermined the position of buyers of EUR/USD and completed another attempt to increase the main currency risk.At the beginning of 2024, it was expected that US GDP would begin to slow down under the pressure of the most stringent monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System (Fed) in the last 40 years. Forecasts ranged from 1% growth to the likelihood of a recession. However, the actual figures turned out to be much higher. The US economy grew by 2.8% in the third quarter, and in the fourth quarter, according to forecasts by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, it may reach 3.3%. These results reinforce the gap with the Eurozone, whose prospects look much more modest.As the economy grows, inflation tends to increase. Americans are spending more actively, anticipating a shortage of imported goods due to the tariffs imposed by Donald Trump. In Europe, the situation looks different. ECB President Christine Lagarde said that core inflation no longer poses a serious threat to price stabilization, and some members of the governing council, such as Isabelle Schnabel, argue that the CPI is under control. These factors allow the ECB to continue the cycle of rate cuts, which, according to some experts, may include up to five stages in 2025.At the same time, the Fed plans to act more cautiously. September forecasts indicated four rate cuts in 2025, but the regulator's management was concerned that such steps could be perceived by the market as a signal of weakness in the American economy. In fact, the US economy is showing resilience: the labor market is strengthening, GDP is growing, and inflation has reached 2.7%. This suggests that in December some FOMC members may vote against further easing of monetary policy.Thus, the gap in the approaches of the Fed and the ECB to monetary policy will grow. The Fed's more cautious policy, reinforced by the possible consequences of Trump's tariffs, reinforces the difference in rates between the US and the Eurozone. This creates conditions for further weakening of the euro. Against this background, the forecast of EUR/USD falling to 1.03 by March and achieving parity by June remains relevant. The recommendation is to sell.EUR/USD Technical analysisThe short-term upward trend of EUR/USD remains. At the moment, the pair is trading in a downward correction. Yesterday, the bears tested the key support of the 1.0491 - 1.0478 trend. The zone was held by the buyers. Therefore, today it is advantageous to consider long positions from the support area with the first target at 1.0553 and the second at about 1.0629.For EUR/USD sales, it is necessary to break through the minimum on December 13 and consolidate below. In this case, it will be possible to consider short positions with a target in the lower Target zone of 1.0353 - 1.0326.
Dec 17, 2024 Read
AUD/USD: RBA cannot stop the decline of the national currency
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Dec 16, 2024 Read
USD/CAD: the pair is not retreating from record highs
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Dec 16, 2024 Read
Forex analysis and forecast for GBP/USD for today, December 16, 2024
GBP/USD, currency, Forex analysis and forecast for GBP/USD for today, December 16, 2024 Since the start of trading, GBP/USD has been showing moderate growth, recovering from a significant drop at the end of last week, when the bears updated the lows on November 27. The main factor of pressure on the pound was the weak macroeconomic statistics of the United Kingdom.The country's October GDP shrank by 0.1% on a monthly basis, repeating the results of September, although analysts had expected growth of 0.1%. Treasury Secretary Rachel Reeves noted that these figures are disappointing, but stressed the long-term focus of the authorities on economic recovery. Industrial production decreased by 0.6% after falling by 0.5% in September, with a growth forecast of 0.3%. In annual terms, the dynamics improved — a decrease of 0.7% compared to the previous indicator of -1.8%. The manufacturing sector also recorded a decline of 0.6%, although this was better than the previous decline of 1.0%.The UK economy is experiencing difficulties due to tax increases provided for in the new budget. Nevertheless, experts believe that the Bank of England is likely to maintain the current rate level at the next meeting.On Friday, the Bank of England updated its inflation forecasts. The forecast for consumer price growth next year increased from 2.7% to 3.0%, which may affect the further monetary policy of the regulator. Today, traders are waiting for business activity data for December. In the services sector, the indicator is expected to grow to 51.0 points, and in the manufacturing sector — to 48.1 points.Tomorrow, market participants will analyze the labor market report for October–November. The growth rate of average wages, including bonuses, is expected to increase to 4.6%, and excluding bonuses to 5.0%. On Thursday, the Bank of England will publish a decision on the interest rate, which is expected to remain at 4.75%.American investors will focus on the results of the US Federal Reserve meeting on December 18. The rate is projected to decrease by 25 basis points to 4.50%.Technical analysis of GBP/USD for todayThe main forex indicators point to uncertainty. The Bollinger bands reflect the flat dynamics. The MACD indicator continues to decline. Stochastic is approaching the oversold zone, suggesting a possible short-term upward rebound.Trading recommendations- Buy after a confident breakout of the 1.2650 level with a target of 1.2730. We will set the stop loss at 1.2600.- Sale: In case of a rebound from the 1.2650 level down and a breakdown of 1.2600 with a target of 1.2500. The stop loss is at 1.2650.
Dec 16, 2024 Read
EUR/USD: the European currency remains afloat
EUR/USD, currency, EUR/USD: the European currency remains afloat FOREX Fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on December 16, 2024The euro continues to resist the circumstances. Neither the political turmoil in Germany and France, nor the recession in the German economy, nor the reduction in rates by the European Central Bank could bring down the EUR/USD pair. It is staying afloat, despite the threat of a vote of no confidence in the government of Olaf Scholz and signals from the Fed about a possible pause in lowering rates. Will the euro be able to withstand new challenges?In the USA, the situation is developing according to a different scenario. The rise in inflation caused by Donald Trump's tariff ideas has become a significant factor. Consumers are rushing to make large purchases. A record number of Americans surveyed by the University of Michigan consider this a good time to shop. Similarly, a third of the study participants CreditCards.com they buy goods out of fear of tariffs.The result of consumer hype, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta,. consumer prices rose to 2.7% in November and U.S. GDP accelerated to 3.3% in the fourth quarter. In such circumstances, the Fed is likely to reconsider its plans for 2025: instead of aggressively cutting rates, Bloomberg experts expect three cuts — in March, June and September, which will bring the rate to 3.25%.In Europe, on the contrary, there is a crisis. The German economy, being a key one for the Eurozone, is plunging into recession. According to the forecasts of the Bundesbank, German GDP will decrease by 0.2% in 2024, and only weak growth of 0.2% is expected in 2025. If Trump imposes 10% tariffs on European goods, the German economy could lose another 0.5%.The situation is aggravated by the political crises in Germany and France, which are withdrawing capital from Europe and slowing economic growth. Barclays notes that the only salvation for the Eurozone is the policy of the ECB. Lower rates weaken the euro, which helps exporters stay afloat.Amid the growth of the US economy and inflation, the Fed is likely to restrain further policy easing, which contributes to the strengthening of the dollar. Any attempts by the euro to adjust upwards can be used for sales.The current stability of the EUR/USD pair above the support level of 1.0455 gives the bears a new chance. On pullbacks from the resistance of 1.0525, 1.0585 or 1.0615, traders can increase short positions. The forex trading strategy remains the same: from short-term purchases to medium-term sales.EUR/USD Technical analysisLast Friday, EUR/USD buyers held key support for the short-term uptrend. Therefore, today it is possible to either hold long positions or consider new ones near the support area 1.0491 - 1.0478. The first target of buyers will be the 1.0553 level. The second target is the maximum on December 6 at 1.0629. If the pair manages to gain a foothold higher, the growth may continue to the "Golden Zone" of 1.0709 - 1.0700.To change the trend and sales, the bears need to update the minimum on December 13 and gain a foothold below. In this case, the sellers' target will be the lower Target zone 1.0353 - 1.0326.
Dec 16, 2024 Read
Forex analysis and forecast for AUD/USD for today, December 13, 2024
AUD/USD, currency, Forex analysis and forecast for AUD/USD for today, December 13, 2024 AUD/USD is showing modest growth, trying to regain positions after losses in recent days. At the moment, the pair is testing the 0.6370 level for the possibility of an upward breakout. The Australian dollar is supported by fresh employment data published the day before.According to the report, in November, employment growth in Australia amounted to 35.6 thousand instead of the expected 25.0 thousand, which is significantly higher than the October value of 12.1 thousand. Full-time employment increased by 52.6 thousand, while partial employment decreased by 17.0 thousand. The unemployment rate also fell from 4.1% to 3.9%, although analysts had predicted 4.2%. These results allow the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to maintain its current monetary policy while anticipating further easing of inflation risks.At the same time, the US dollar strengthened against the background of the publication of data on industrial inflation for November. The core producer price index rose from 3.1% to 3.4% year-on-year, exceeding forecasts, although on a monthly basis the growth rate decreased to 0.2%. The broader indicator showed an acceleration to 3.0% year-on-year and to 0.4% month-on-month, which also supported the "green" dollar.Today, market activity may remain subdued while participants evaluate the results of the RBA meeting. The regulator again left the rate at 4.35%, for the ninth time in a row, while indicating that core inflation remains high. Despite this, the regulator signaled its readiness to gradually abandon the "hawkish" rhetoric. Core inflation slowed to 3.5% in September, but the RBA stresses that it will take time to return it to the target range of 2.0–3.0%. Australia's leading banks forecast a rate cut no earlier than May 2025, although some, such as Commonwealth Bank, expect this as early as February.Meanwhile, investors' attention is shifting to the upcoming US Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for December 17-18. According to the FedWatch Tool from CME Group, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is estimated at 90%.AUD/USD Technical Analysis for todayThe main forex indicators give mixed signals. The Bollinger Band indicator on the daily chart is expanding, indicating the possibility of further decline. The MACD indicator retains a weak sell signal, and Stochastic, having reached the level of 20, shows a tendency to reverse, which may indicate the likelihood of a short-term upward correction.Trading recommendations- short positions after the breakdown of the 0.6336 level down with a target of 0.6250. The recommended stop loss is 0.6372.- buy with a rebound from the 0.6336 level up, followed by a breakdown of the 0.6372 mark. The target is 0.6455, the stop loss is 0.6336.
Dec 13, 2024 Read
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