USD/CHF: will the pair reach parity?

USD/CHF, currency, USD/CHF: will the pair reach parity?

On Thursday USD/CHF is testing the resistance of 0.9800, renewing the local highs of July 15. Nevertheless, there was no active strengthening of the dollar in the Asian session. Perhaps an increase of 75 basis points in the Fed rate in September has already been included in the prices of the trading instrument.

At the same time, investors are not in a hurry to open new positions before the report on the US labor market will be published on Friday, September 2. The day before the ADP employment report came out showing 132K new jobs against the forecast of 288K.

Today, Switzerland will release its consumer inflation report for August. It is expected to add 0.2% MoM and 3.4% YoY. Tomorrow the second quarter employment report will be released.

Technical analysis for the USD/CHF

USD/CHF Daily Chart Forex

Bollinger Band indicator on the daily chart shows a confident rise.

MACD indicator continues to rise above the zero line and holds a strong buy signal.

Stochastic Oscillator has entered the area of maximum values, but it keeps on growing.

If the "bulls" are able to consolidate above 0.9807, then we continue to form long positions with the next target at 0.9900. We will put a stop loss at 0.9750.

If the direction of movement changes, it is recommended to wait for a breakdown and fixation of the price below 0.9762. From here we will open sales with Take Profit at 0.9700. Stop-loss is set at 0.9807.

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Symbols USD/CHF

Other analytics by this trader

EUR/USD: Non-farm Payrolls won't help the dollar
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Jun 02, 2023 Read
Forex pair EUR/USD: FOMC is in no hurry to raise the rate
EUR/USD, currency, Forex pair EUR/USD: FOMC is in no hurry to raise the rate FOREX Fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on June 1, 2023Markets often run ahead of the news, which brings traders losses. Despite the lack of consensus in the FOMC on the rate hike in June, derivatives give over 60% probability of such a step, though the day before the Vice-President of the Fed Philip Jefferson quite clearly hinted at a pause in the cycle of monetary restriction, which cooled the fervor of the EUR/USD "bears" a bit.After the Eurozone inflation report showed a slowdown in prices and rising jobless rates in the U.S., the major currency risk tested a 9-week low.Pic. 1. Inflation trends in Italy and France.There is no point for the European Central Bank to depress the Eurozone economy with hawkish actions, so the regulator is likely to complete its monetary tightening cycle in July by raising the rate to 3.75%.In the United States, the number of job openings rose from 9.75 million to 10.1 million in April, which means there are 1.8 job openings per American unemployed. This is a very good number since 1951. In other words, the US labor market will not prevent the Fed from continuing to raise the federal funds rate.However, it is possible that in June the Fed will pause in its monetary restriction in order to get more data on the effectiveness of measures taken by the regulator. At any rate the Central Bank's management is in a mood to make a pause and look around, which lowers interest to the dollar in forex trading.Pic. 2. The dynamics of the supposed change of the Fed's rate.The positioning on the currency market has changed somewhat on the eve of the release of the US labor market report. While previously it was thought that a strong NFP would strengthen the dollar, now we are more expecting the pair to consolidate. We closed short positions on EUR/USD and we will look for an entry to buy at a breakout of resistances 1.0715 and 1.0735.
Jun 01, 2023 Read
Forex analysis and forecast for USD/JPY for today, June 1, 2023
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Jun 01, 2023 Read
EUR/USD: dollar buyers have no reason to worry
EUR/USD, currency, EUR/USD: dollar buyers have no reason to worry FOREX Fundamental Analysis for EURUSD on May 31, 2023The problem with the sovereign debt ceiling is resolved, the Fed plans to continue raising interest rates and rumors of a recession were exaggerated. At the same time, China's economy continues to disappoint investors and inflation in Spain has slowed to 2.9%, severely limiting the potential for ECB action. EURUSD, after a slight upward correction, returned to the downside.The head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland thinks there is no reason to pause in monetary easing, but there are enough arguments for it to continue. On the futures market, the probability of a rate hike in June has risen to 60%. Of course, some adjustment to the Fed's actions can be made by the US labor market report, but ING believes that the impact of Non-farm Payrolls on the dollar exchange rate will be minimal, unless the report is super screwed up.Pic. 1. Probability of Fed Funds Rate Change in June.Loretta Mester holds the same view. In May, the main reason for the pause in the rate hike cycle was the threat of default. Now that the potential threat has been leveled out, the Fed has no reason to change its positioning.Moreover, the agreement on the reduction of budget expenditures, according to the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, will eliminate a number of uncertainties and have a positive effect on GDP.Pic. 2. US Treasury bill yield dynamics.In China, the May Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index unexpectedly collapsed from 49.2 to 48.8 pips and remains below the key level of 50 pips. China's economy is recovering at a different pace than analysts had forecast, which puts pressure on the single currency.The attention of the markets switches from the threat of default to the monetary policy of the central banks. In addition, investors are waiting for the report on Friday on the US labor market. On expectations EUR/USD may go down to 1.0665, which will be typical of the "sell on rumor, buy on news" strategy. Get ready to go short.
May 31, 2023 Read
Forex EUR/USD: will the pair retain its uptrend?
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May 30, 2023 Read
Forex analysis and forecast for USD/JPY for today, May 29, 2023
USD/JPY, currency, Forex analysis and forecast for USD/JPY for today, May 29, 2023 At the beginning of the new week, USD/JPY has slightly retreated from the local highs of November 23 and is trading just below the level of 140.50.The dollar enjoys a significant lead over the Yen. The Japanese currency is not supported either by the monetary policy or national statistics. Friday's Tokyo consumer price report showed a decline from 3.5% to 3.2%, while a growth of 3.9% was forecasted. Although core inflation accelerated from 3.8% to 3.9%, the Bank of Japan is unlikely to move to tighten monetary policy.At the same time, in the US, Democrats and Republicans were able to agree to extend the national debt ceiling for two more years with small cuts in non-military budget spending. In addition, Friday's report on U.S. personal income showed an increase from 0.3% to 0.4%. Spending rose from 0.1% to 0.8%. Durable Goods Orders also rose 1.1%.Technical Analysis for USD/JPYThe Bollinger Band indicator on the daily formation chart shows a moderate rise. The MACD indicator is in the positive area and holds a strong buy signal. Stochastic oscillator remains in the area of maximum values.In case of a confident breakdown followed by consolidation above the level of 140.91, we open long positions with Take Profit 143.50. Stop loss is set at 139.67.If the quote falls below support 139.67, start selling towards 138.00. Placement of a stop-loss is 140.91.
May 29, 2023 Read
EUR/USD: US default is off
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May 29, 2023 Read
Forex analysis and forecast for USD/CHF for today, May 25, 2023
USD/CHF, currency, Forex analysis and forecast for USD/CHF for today, May 25, 2023 Asian session of Thursday passes with the advantage of USD/CHF buyers. The pair is growing and trying to break above the local highs of April 11 at 0.9065.The main theme for traders is the lingering problem with the U.S. debt ceiling. If American authorities do not come to a consensus, since June 1 they will not be able to pay their obligations, which means a technical default.In addition, investors are analyzing the minutes of the May meeting of the Fed, which do not rule out a possible pause in the cycle of rising rates at the June meeting. The regulator may take a pause to assess the effectiveness of measures taken to tighten financial conditions.Revised estimate of the US GDP in the first quarter as well as housing market's pending transactions statistics will be released today.Technical Analysis for USD/CHFOn the Daily the Bollinger Band indicator is pointing up, as well as the MACD indicator, which preserves the buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator is testing the 80% level for a break up and may enter the overbought area.After a break above the level of 0.9065, it is expected to open a buy with Take Profit at 0.9150. Stop-loss is set at 0.9000.Selling will be relevant if the pair will consolidate below support at 0.9030. The target is 0.8960. Stop-loss is set at 0.9065.
May 25, 2023 Read
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