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On the world's financial markets and stock exchanges. Part 1

DAX, index, Dow Jones, index, NASDAQ 100, index, S&P 500, index, On the world\'s financial markets  and stock exchanges. Part 1

On the world's financial markets and stock exchanges

Financial markets are necessary for the functioning of the world production and trading system.

There are 3 types of financial markets in the world today: stock, currency, and commodity markets.

In the stock market, the tools for work are different securities: shares, bonds, bills of exchange, checks, certificates of deposit. In the commodities market, the most popular trading instruments are oil, gold, sugar and grain. In the currency market, the most active, i.e. volatile, instruments are USD (American dollar), EUR (Euro), GBP (British pound), CHF (Swiss franc).

Volatility is a statistical indicator that characterizes the tendency of market prices or income to change over time. It is the most important financial indicator in financial risk management, where it is a measure of risk of using a financial instrument over a given period of time.

Read more: Volatility: types, how to track and how to use

The global financial markets are very reliably interconnected and represent a coherent global financial system. Major changes in any one market will necessarily have an effect on other markets. For example, hurricanes periodically hitting the Florida coast force Americans to reduce oil production, which leads to a rise in world oil prices, because the US, being the biggest consumer of "black gold", is forced to buy oil on the world market. Consequently, shares of those companies, which are related to oil extraction, transportation and refining, will rise due to the growth of oil prices - this is the change on the stock market. The currency market, on the other hand, will react with a decline of the dollar against all world currencies due to the loss of millions of dollars to the American economy caused by the post-hurricane devastation.

Almost all serious events in any financial market as well as in the world and in any country have an impact on other financial markets.

The main task of any market is to determine the true value of a product. Due to continuous changes in supply and demand in the financial markets, rates of securities change. Currencies. And also the price of raw materials.

The main players in the financial markets are:

  • central banks around the world;
  • investment funds;
  • brokers and commercial banks;
  • hedgers and speculators.

Income in the financial markets is made up of 2 components. In the stock market, one component of income is the share of profits in the form of dividends, depending on the amount invested. The second component of income, which often exceeds the number of dividends many times over, is the CURRENT DIFFERENCE between the purchase price of an asset and its sale price.

Trading in the financial markets can take place both on stock exchanges, i.e. places specially designated for trading, and electronically, i.e. via the Internet. Working in the financial markets via the Internet is carried out through a broker company of your choice, which provides you with access to the financial markets and settles the accounts with you.

Read more: Dividends: what is it and how to get them

1.History of the origin of financial markets

The stock market has been part of human history since time immemorial. Bills of exchange, i.e. promissory notes, existed in Ancient Egypt. Ancient Greece and Ancient Rome had experience of formalized trade with a central market institution, with general commodity-exchange operations. With a monetary system, with the practice of contracting for delivery on contractual terms. In the modern sense, the market emerged at the end of the sixteenth century, with the emergence of the first joint-stock companies. These societies were maritime trading companies, which operated on the basis of a free collection of capital for commercial expeditions. Depositors' contributions were returned after each voyage with an interest on the profits earned from the sale of the goods brought back.

The emergence of opportunities to freely sell and buy bills of exchange and shares before their execution laid the foundation for the emergence of the first stock exchanges, permanent markets, where securities were traded. Trading technologies were constantly sharpening, variety of circulating securities increased and, gradually, exchange trade became an integral part of European economic life.

State interest loans, for which official exchange rates were set, appeared. In the beginning of the seventeenth century, in the Netherlands, at the Amsterdam Stock Exchange, the oldest existing stock exchange in the world today, transactions in shares were first held. The Netherlands was actively exploring the sea routes, Dutch merchants were not only diligent carriers, but also showed great ability to speculate. Many of the most enterprising people of different nationalities gathered in the Netherlands. Very quickly the rules and methods of trade were worked out, which have survived to this day without significant changes.

With the development of industry and the production of goods in large quantities, the need arose for a permanent wholesale market. This market developed during trade between Spain and Holland in the sixteenth century, in the form of an exchange. The exchanges attracted more and more masses of goods and money, becoming international trading centres. The first international exchange, which corresponded to the new level of development of productive forces, was deemed to be the Antwerp exchange, founded in 1531.

In the XV-XVI centuries, exchanges arose in the places of emergence of manufactures in Italy and Holland, as a manifestation of the need to develop foreign trade in transactions with large consignments of goods. Based on the Antwerp exchange pattern, the Lion exchange (1545), London Royal Exchange (1566) and other exchanges, which were mainly commodity and bill exchanges, were established. In the early 17th century, the most important exchange in the world was Amsterdam (1602), where the historical centre of European trading gradually moved. Here futures transactions appeared for the first time, and technical exchange operations reached a fairly high level. Not only bonds of Dutch, English, Portuguese and Spanish government loans were listed on this exchange, but also shares of Dutch and British East Indies, and later West Indies trading companies.

Read more: What are futures: types, features, advantages and risks

By the end of XVII century, real exchange battles between buyers and sellers were already going on at the London Stock Exchange. Since then, market players, or traders as they are known today, were referred to as irreconcilable "bulls" and "bears". "The bulls have sought to profit from buying securities, while the bears have sought to profit from selling them.

Despite Europe's historical role, the greatest contribution to the development of the exchange trading system to its current level came from the United States of America.

In the US, commodity markets have existed since 1752. Initially, they traded locally produced goods: homemade products, textiles, hides and skins, metals and timber.

The exchange was exactly what the changing economy needed in the new situation: a place where suppliers of raw materials (finished goods) could sell and buy the right quantity of a certain quality at the right time, without having to transport the entire batch to the place of transaction. It became possible to make preliminary transactions for delivery of raw materials, which may not have been produced yet. Exchange became an exchange of real, but as a rule, not yet produced goods, which facilitated advance of goods from producer to consumer with minimum expenses for transportation, storage, etc.

The emergence of transactions with delayed execution period (forward transactions), when a certain time passed between their conclusion and actual delivery of goods, made it possible to profit from price fluctuations. Speculation became an integral part of exchange trade and became the thing, which immediately separated exchange from usual wholesale market. The first futures markets appeared in the XIX century. In its second half, the world's first grain futures exchange was established in Chicago.

The New York Stock Exchange, established in the late 18th century, developed rapidly and entered the 20th century dictating the financial fashion to the whole world. In the century that followed, the centre of global finance was firmly established on Wall Street, where over a billion shares change hands on a single day.

Read more: What is a Bond: types, risks, difference from stock, pros and cons

2. Exchanges

The word "bourse" itself derives from the name of the merchant family Van der Burset. One of the first bills of exchange was held in Bruges, on the square in front of the house of this family, decorated with the family coat of arms and depicting 3 leather bags-purses. The forerunners of the modern stock exchange were markets and fairs. In markets, trade took place regularly, with cash goods; and buyers were usually consumers of goods. Markets were for a limited number of districts. Fairs were held only once a year. However, their turnover was larger and facilitated international rather than local trade.

The initial exchange was, in its essence, some kind of a wholesale market, since quite a large part of transactions were made with cash goods. But even then, their distinctive features, common for modern exchanges, were: regularity of resumption of trading, confinement of trading to a certain place, subordination of trading to predetermined rules.

By the end of 18 century, the first stock exchanges appeared in Great Britain, the USA and Germany. Since late 19th century and early 20th century, stock exchanges have become major centres of national, international and economic life. In late 19th century and early 20th century, the importance of real commodity exchanges started decreasing. However, an entirely new type of commodity exchange, i.e. futures exchange, started to emerge and rapidly develop. The process of transition was prolonged by terms and different forms in different countries, and exchange trade in iron, coal, liquor, malt, hay and other goods has been stopped.

At present, real commodity exchanges have remained only in separate countries and have comparatively small turnovers. They usually serve as a form of wholesale trade in local commodities, whose markets are characterised by low concentration of production, marketing and consumption. Sometimes they are organised to protect the interests of a country's industry in the export of essential commodities. The largest of them operate in India, Indonesia and Malaysia.

In the developed capitalist countries, there are practically no real commodity exchanges. But at certain periods, they still play a prominent role. For example, large commodity turnovers occurred in the mid-1970s and early 1980s on the oil exchange in London with tanker shipments of English oil, and in the 1970s with grains on the exchange in Milan, etc. At the same time, in all developed countries, commodity exchanges, exist in the form of unions uniting traders, brokers, transport processing firms. For example, in Europe this union is called "European commodity exchanges". Preserved since the heyday of futures trading in real goods, they are mainly engaged in model contract development and information activities. Trading operations are practically nonexistent.

An exchange is a regularly functioning wholesale market for goods, raw materials and securities.

In legal terms, a stock exchange is an enterprise, just like a bank, factory or shop; like any other business, it may be public or private. In France, Italy, Belgium and Luxembourg, stock exchanges are state-owned, i.e. they are founded and regulated by state authorities. In the USA, Great Britain, Germany and Japan, there are private stock exchanges, which are mainly registered as joint-stock companies. Characteristically, shares of these exchanges are most often owned by institutional investors - banks and other companies, various funds, and state bodies.

Exchange transactions are concluded in a designated place. Since at present most stock exchanges trade several instruments at once, as a rule, a separate hall or room is allocated for each of them, or there are separate sections in one large hall, the floor of which is at a lower level than the floor of the hall. The place where a transaction is made is called differently in different countries - the exchange ring, the hold, the pit or the floor.

There are three methods of trading:

Public trading, which is conducted by shouting, sometimes duplicated by hand and finger signals;

So-called whispered trading. The latter is of limited use in Southeast Asia and Japan.

Electronic trading based on high technology, which, in the last decade, has become increasingly popular.

Exchange trading is based on the principles of a double auction, where increasing price bids from buyers meet decreasing price bids from sellers. When the bid prices of the buyer and seller match, a deal is struck.

4. Activities of the world's stock exchanges.

  • - There are 10 largest stock exchanges:
  • - New York Stock Exchange
  • - Tokyo Stock Exchange
  • - NASDAQ
  • - London Stock Exchange
  • Euronext - merged with the NYSE in 2006
  • Hong Kong Stock Exchange
  • Toronto Stock Exchange
  • Frankfurt Stock Exchange (Deutsche Bourse)
  • Madrid Stock Exchange (BME Spanish Exchanges)
  • Swiss Exchange SWX

The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) was established on May 17, 1792. The main US stock exchange, the largest in the world. It is a symbol of financial power of the United States and the financial industry in general. It defines the world-famous Dow Jones index for shares of industrial companies as well as the NYSE Composite index.

Read more: About NASDAQ Stock Exchange

The Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) was founded in 1878. The Tokyo Stock Exchange is a not-for-profit organisation that is a legal entity with broad powers of self-governance.

NASDAQ (National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation) is an American stock exchange specializing in shares of high-technology companies (manufacture of electronics, software, etc.). It is one of three main stock exchanges in the USA (along with NYSE and AMEX), is a division of NASD, controlled by the SEC. It was founded on 8 February 1971. It takes its name from automatic quotation system, which started the exchange. At present, shares of over 3,200 companies, including Russian ones, are traded on NASDAQ.

Read more: What is the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE)

London Stock Exchange (LSE) - one of the biggest and oldest exchanges in Europe. Officially founded in 1801, but in fact its history began in 1570, when royal broker and counselor Thomas Gresham built "Royal Exchange" on his own money.  The London Stock Exchange is a public limited company and its shares are traded on the Exchange itself. A number of well-known Russian companies trade on the exchange (in the form of depositary receipts), including Rosneft, Lukoil, Gazprom and others. In 2005 futures and options for RTS Index were launched on LSE (trade volumes for these contracts are 3 billion rubles and 700 million rubles respectively). In October 2006 the exchange launched the new FTSE Russia index, which is calculated according to price changes of the ten most liquid depositary receipts of Russian companies traded on the LSE.

Euronext NV is a pan-European stock exchange with branches in Belgium, France, the Netherlands, Portugal and the United Kingdom. In addition to equities and derivatives, the Euronext Group provides clearing and financial information services. As of 31 January 2006 all markets managed by Euronext had an aggregate capitalization of US$2.9 trillion, making it the fifth largest exchange on the planet.

Russian stock exchanges.

"The Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange is one of the largest universal exchanges in Russia, the CIS and Eastern Europe. "MICEX Stock Exchange is a leading Russian stock exchange, where stocks and corporate bonds of about 600 Russian issuers are traded daily, with total capitalization of almost 24 trillion rubles. The MICEX Stock Exchange has about 550 professional securities market participants whose clients include over 280,000 investors.

Read more: How to invest in stocks and what you need to know

5. Exchange indices.

An exchange index is a composite indicator of price changes of a certain group of assets (securities, commodities, derivatives).

As a rule, the absolute values of indices are not important. Changes in the index over time are more important, as they provide an indication of the general direction of the market, even in cases where share prices in a selected group change in different directions. Depending on the sample of indicators, a stock index can reflect the behaviour of a particular group of securities (or other assets) or the market (market sector) as a whole.

The very first stock index is the Dow Jones Index. Created by Wall Street Journal editor and Dow Jones & Company founder Charles Dow. This index was created to track the development of the industrial component of the US stock markets.

Based on data from Dow Jones & Co. Inc. at the end of 2003, there were 2,315 stock indexes around the world.

The Russian stock market has a large number of stock exchange indices. The main ones are the RTS Index and the MICEX Index.

RTS Index - calculated as a capitalisation-weighted index of the most liquid shares of Russian issuers admitted to trading on the RTS Stock Exchange. The index has been calculated since September 1, 1995. When calculating capitalisation, the number of freely traded shares is taken into account. In 2005 the index calculation method was changed - it began to be calculated in real time, which allowed FORTS (futures market section of RTS) to launch trading of futures contract for RTS Index, and later options. This instrument proved to be very popular with players and quickly became a leader in terms of turnover on FORTS. The RTS Index is still based on the 'classic' RTS, where shares are traded for the US dollar.

The MICEX Index is an effective capitalization weighted market index of the most liquid shares of Russian issuers listed on the MICEX Stock Exchange CJSC (MICEX Stock Exchange) and included in the index calculation base. The effective capitalization of shares takes into account the share of shares in free float on the secondary market. The MICEX index is used by management companies as an underlying asset for 18 index mutual funds with total assets of 4.2 billion rubles.

Read more: Issuer of securities: definition, types and features

Stock market

The emergence of all kinds of securities and their purchase and sale give rise to the stock market. The main sense of its existence is that the rights to property and income from this property, embodied in securities, can be sold or bought on it.

Securities are documents of property content with which a right is linked in such a way that it can neither be exercised nor transferred to another person without these documents. The main types of securities are shares and bonds.

A share is a security that certifies the owner's right to a certain share in a joint-stock company and entitles them to receive dividends.

Shares can be ordinary or preference shares. Holders of ordinary shares are the rightful owners of the company. They have the right to vote at meetings of the shareholders, who are the supreme governing body of the company.

Preference shares give the owner a higher, more stable dividend, but they do not have the right to vote on most issues regarding the management of the company. Preference shares are also traded on the stock market but have less liquidity and are usually priced lower than ordinary shares of the same company.

Liquidity is an economic term that refers to the ability of a value (asset) to be sold quickly at a price close to the market price. Liquid - convertible into money.

The key concept in stock trading is liquidity. A liquid market is characterized by:

- continuous transactions

- a narrow gap between the seller's price and the buyer's price

- small fluctuations in price from transaction to transaction.

- A deviation from these norms is fraught with economic distortions and panic among investors. In order to get rid of these negative phenomena, the stock exchange does everything in its power to maintain liquidity.

Not all securities are admitted to trading on the stock exchange, but only so-called equity securities.

The basic securities are as follows:

- Fixed-income securities (debentures) - government bonds and bonds of private companies and banks, certificates, etc.

- shares (capital certificates).

In order to be listed on an exchange, a stock must meet certain criteria accepted by that exchange. These may include requirements for the issuer's legal status, amount of equity or share capital, income, face value of securities, etc. For example, shares of some 5,000 corporations are listed at the New York Stock Exchange. Each has at least 2,000 shareholders and at least $100 million in assets. So, for many companies, going public not only means great opportunities to raise debt capital but also to be part of a prestigious group of firms. The difference between listed companies and unlisted companies is about the same as the difference between a high street shop and a high street shop on the outskirts of town. Just as commodities are traded on a commodity exchange, securities are not directly traded on a stock exchange. They are bought and sold in batches, held in special bank accounts.

There are several types of stock transactions:

- Cash transactions, which are realised immediately after conclusion. Payment is made either immediately or within a few days. Until recently, in order to transfer securities from account to account, a special cheque, or certificate, issued by the exchange to the customer and certifying the transfer of ownership, was issued. Nowadays, all transfers are made via a computer network

- Futures and options transactions are similar to bank and commodity exchange transactions, with the only difference being that they end in the payment of the difference in the exchange rates between the time of the transaction and the time of payment

- arbitrage transactions, which are based on securities trading between different exchanges when there are differences in exchange rates. The purpose of such transactions is to smooth out price misalignments arising on different exchanges

- package deals - deals involving the purchase and sale of large batches of securities.

Read more: What are arbitration trades and arbitration strategies?

The price at which a security is traded is called its exchange rate. The exchange rate of a security depends on the amount of income it generates and is formed at the time of the transaction between the seller and the buyer. In a simplified form, the purchase and sale of securities looks as follows: an investor (buyer) orders a broker to buy 100 shares of a certain company at the rate of $1 per share. The seller in turn instructs his broker to sell the same batch of similar shares at the same rate.

The brokers contact a specialist dealer who generates a bid package for that company. Seeing that the bids he receives are mutually satisfactory and no other offers are received, the dealer sets the official rate at $1 and both clients are notified of the transaction.

In reality, the dealer receives many more bids and sales of the same securities with the request of quite different rates. His aim is to determine the rate at which most of the bids can be satisfied and the difference between supply and demand. It is this information that he calls out in the exchange hall in search of missing securities or in order to sell a surplus. The dealer's main objective is to balance supply and demand and to sell all lots of securities. As information on supply and demand is constantly being received, the rate of securities also fluctuates throughout the day. Therefore, the exchange sheets record the rates at the opening of the exchange and at the close of business.

If a transaction is made, stock exchange fees are deducted from the sales price of the securities, which include intermediaries' reward stock exchange tax and sometimes some other fees.

The commission is not the only source of income for the intermediary. Another source is income from price fluctuations. This income is also called operating income. At the exchange, for several hours thousands of transactions are made, which causes price fluctuations and gives an opportunity to receive income from the number of operations. The more deals of purchase and sale, with frequent price fluctuations, the more opportunities to get the operating income. Brokers and any investors, who analyse dynamics of exchange rates, also derive operating income from the exchange. These are the operations that can generate the most income. And that is why the stock exchange remains a fairly accurate indicator of the state of the economy. Exchange indices are used for determining the dynamics of business activity on the basis of stock exchange transactions.

The index of each share (bond) price is determined as the product of its rate by the number of shares of this type, quoted at the exchange, divided by the share par value. Later share price indices are used to calculate the aggregate exchange index.

Practically every stock exchange calculates its own indexes, but the most popular is New York Stock Exchange index - Dow Jones index. It was first calculated in 1897 by the editor-in-chief of the Wall Street Journal. Today, the index is an average of the share prices of 30 industrial companies, 12 utility companies and 12 banks listed on the exchange, including General Motors, General Electric, AT&T and others. Despite the inevitable inaccuracies inherent in any arithmetic average, the Dow Jones Index is a benchmark for exchanges and companies around the world.

A bond is a security that pays an annual income in the form of fixed interest.

Securities also include monetary and commodity documents that can be presented to exercise the property rights expressed in them - bills of exchange, cheques, certificates of deposit, bond coupons, bills of lading, warehouse certificates (warrants), etc.

The rights of private investors are protected by legislation. The Securities Market Act and the Joint Stock Company Act were passed in 1996. 

Read more: Listing of securities on the stock exchange

Two types of securities markets are distinguished:

- Primary - a market that emerges at the time of the issue (issue) of securities

- Secondary - a market where securities can be resold several times.

The primary market is where the initial placement, or IPO (Initial Public Offering), of securities of joint-stock companies, government and municipal authorities takes place.

The placement of securities is possible in two ways - directly by the issuer to investors or by engaging intermediaries. Placement of securities (with the exception of government bonds) is usually carried out by investment banks.

Participants in the primary stock market are: individual investors, credit and financial institutions, pension funds, corporations and government agencies, insurance companies, investment funds private individuals, etc.

The secondary stock market is divided into exchange-traded and over-the-counter markets. In an exchange-based market, certain shares are traded and admitted to trading. Each stock exchange has a listing of securities.

A listing is a list of securities listed on a given stock exchange. Securities that are not listed are traded on an over-the-counter market. On this market, securities that are not listed on a stock exchange for whatever reason are bought and sold, e.g., through banks.

In the secondary fund market, sales and purchases of previously issued securities are made on stock exchanges or over-the-counter markets. The stock exchange and OTC market complement each other organically and are, at the same time, competitors.

In bond trading, the OTC market complements the stock exchange mechanism; in stock trading, exchanges and the OTC market are rivals.

Unlike a stock exchange, with a specially equipped building, operating room, the OTC market is transactions in the purchase and sale of securities, in free circulation. Exchanges operate on an auction basis and transactions therein are governed by rules approved by the management of the exchanges. Prices in the OTC market are set by negotiation and according to the rules governing the OTC market.

Read more: What is OTC and what are its features

The securities traded over-the-counter can be roughly divided into several types:

- shares of small firms with no growth prospects, operating in traditional sectors of the economy;

- shares of companies which are being established in new and emerging industries and which have the potential to become large corporations;

- securities of large financial and credit institutions, which traditionally limit the circulation of their shares to the over-the-counter market;

- government securities, corporate and municipal bonds;

- new equity issues;

- foreign securities which, for various reasons, do not meet exchange requirements.

The FOREX international foreign exchange market

The formation of the global monetary system followed the industrial revolution and the formation of the world economic system. The system passed through three stages in its development, each corresponding to its own type of organization of international monetary relations.

The first stage in the development of global monetary system can be considered a period of its emergence in XIX century before the beginning of World War II. The transition to the second stage began at the end of 1930's. The world monetary system of this stage received its legal form on Bretton-Wood's conference (USA) in 1944. The third stage is the current world monetary system, which was formed in the 1970s. It was institutionalized after the 1976 meeting in Kingston (Jamaica).

The birth year of FOREX, the international foreign exchange market, is believed to have been 1971, when the currency exchanges shifted from fixed exchange rates to floating ones. FOREX is an acronym for 'FOReign EXchange', which translates to 'international exchange'. This market operates 24 hours a day, every day. It is characterised by the lack of a defined place of operation, as transactions take place between participants both directly and through various financial intermediaries, whose intersection of interests can take place in real exchanges, electronic trading, and other financial structures.

One of the most important elements of any currency system is the exchange rate, which shows the price of one country's currency expressed in another country's currency.

In the 1930s the international monetary system broke up into a series of blocks (sterling, dollar, French franc, etc.).

Read more: What is a Benchmark in investment and trading

At the Bretton Woods conference held in 1944, international agreements were adopted which became the foundation of the system of monetary relations that became known as the Bretton Woods system.

Bretton Woods was designed to compensate for the lack of free exchange of currencies for gold. It strengthened the regulatory impact of the spontaneous and market-driven nature of international settlements. When the dollar officially ceased being exchanged for gold in 1971, fixed exchange rates gave way to floating ones. These changes in the international monetary system were legally enshrined in an agreement signed in 1976 in Kingston, reflected in the revised IMF Constitution.

The presence in a country of a currency unit, like a flag, coat of arms, anthem, is an indispensable attribute of national sovereignty. Monetary units within national economies fulfil a number of internal functions: a means of communication, a unit of account, a means of preserving value.

In economic relations between countries, national monetary units play the role of world money. Money used in international transactions is commonly referred to as currency.

Currency serves foreign trade in goods and services, international capital movements, transfer of profits from one country to another, foreign loans and subsidies, international tourism, public and private money transfers, etc. Consequently, currency is not a new type of money, but a specific way of functioning that is linked to transactions of an international nature.

A comparison is made by means of the exchange rate. The exchange rate is the price of one currency expressed in the currencies of other countries.

The exchange rate plays an important role in the development of international trade and the movement of capital.

Determining the exchange rate of a national monetary unit in relation to foreign monetary units is commonly referred to as a currency quotation. There are two methods of quoting currencies: direct and inverse (indirect). The most common is the direct quotation, in which a unit of foreign currency is expressed in the national currency. For example, 1 US dollar equals 28 rubles. In a reverse or indirect quotation, a unit of the national currency is taken as the basis, the exchange rate of which is expressed in a certain quantity of foreign currency. In our example, the inverse quotation will be 1/28 = 0.0357 dollars per ruble.

On the foreign exchange market, a commodity is one currency or set of currencies, and another currency plays the role of money. Currencies are traded in the world's financial centres, the most important of which are the markets in London, New York and Tokyo. The national currency markets of many countries around the world are involved to varying degrees in international transactions.

Modern means of communication and telecommunications link the world's financial centres into a single entity. Since 1973, the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication - SWIFT, established by 240 banks from fifteen countries, has been widely used for immediate money transfers and payments by means of a computer network. Russia joined the SWIFT system in 1989.

Read more: About the SWIFT Global Interbank System

Any news capable of affecting the exchange rate spreads all over the world instantly giving rise to a boisterous activity of market agents. The modern foreign exchange market is therefore truly a 24/7 global market.

The daily turnover of the global foreign exchange market amounts to astronomical amounts measured in hundreds of billions of dollars. By volume, the currency market stands out from all the other existing markets. Currency trading exceeds the volume of all world trade in goods and services by a factor of ten. In 1986, the average daily turnover in the currency market was about $330 billion, in 1989 it was $650 billion. - $650 billion in 1989, $1.2 trillion in 1995. - 1.2 trillion dollars, and in 2005, up to 5 trillion dollars per day. - up to 5 trillion dollars per day.

Global currency market development is characterized by strengthening internationalization of relations, extension of services, continuity of operations during a day and a growing scale of transactions and arbitrage operations.

The main economic agents on the external foreign exchange market are:

- exporters

- importers

- Portfolio holders - investors.

Alongside the "primary" subjects of the foreign exchange market - exporters and importers, who form the basic demand and supply of currency, there are "secondary" subjects - those participants of the foreign exchange market who trade directly in currency. These are commercial banks, currency brokers and dealers.

Read more: International Monetary Fund (IMF): history, objectives, structure, capital

Most of the money assets circulating at the currency market are in non-cash form, in the form of demand deposits, letters of credit, checks, bills of exchange with major banks, trading with each other. Any more or less significant international transaction involves the exchange of bank deposits in different currencies. Commercial banks, in order to satisfy their customers, carry out inter-bank currency trading. It is inter-bank trade that determines the values of exchange rates, which are regularly published in the open press.

In addition, banks finance exports and imports, manage international cash flows, including the electronic transfer of money across national borders, credit and equity finance, and design financial schemes for their clients. Commercial banks are therefore crucial players in the global foreign exchange market. Banknote trading and the exchange of cash account for a small part of the market.

Another economic agent that carries out major transactions in the global foreign exchange market is multinational companies. Operating in many countries around the world, they have to constantly conduct transactions on the world market to convert one currency into another. Quite often the transactions of multinational firms are dictated not by production needs, but by investment considerations.

The global currency market mechanism is also used to shape government macroeconomic policies. For this purpose, the central banks of individual countries intervene in the currency market in order to prevent sharp fluctuations of exchange rates. Although the volume of such operations is often small, participants in the global currency market closely follow the actions of central banks, trying to figure out the meaning of subsequent activities that can affect exchange rates.

In addition to the above-mentioned participants of the global foreign exchange market, foreign currencies are traded by various non-banking financial institutions, in particular investment and pension funds.

The main transactions carried out by economic agents in the foreign exchange market are remittances, hedging, clearing, and credit. A money transfer allows the transfer of purchasing power from one country to another. In hedging, an economic agent protects itself from currency risk. The clearing mechanism allows a large number of transactions to take place without the transfer of currency. A credit is realized when the exporter issues a forward draft to the buyer or to the buyer's bank. The term draft is discounted, sold on the bill of exchange market and the exporter receives its discounted value.

Deposits which are traded on the world currency market generate income for their owners. This income is determined by the level of the interest rate and is expressed in the currency in which the deposit is denominated. In addition, the yield on the deposit is influenced by the expected change in the exchange rate.

Read more: Introduction to Forex hedging basics. Examples of hedging

The equilibrium of the world currency market can only take place if deposits denominated in different currencies provide an equal comparable income. This condition for the equilibrium of the world currency market is called interest rate parity.

Foreign exchange rates are changed in such a way as to maintain interest rate parity. If, for example, the expected return on dollar-denominated deposits exceeds the expected value of deposits denominated in sterling, sterling will begin to depreciate against the dollar.

Exchange rate movements are influenced by the nature of expectations of its future value. If, for example, there is an expectation of growth of the exchange rate against the pound sterling, then, all other things being equal, the current exchange rate of the dollar against the pound sterling will increase.

The base currency of the world currency market is the US dollar. This means that the vast majority of currency transactions are carried out with the dollar. Even if a bank needs to exchange, say, New Zealand dollars for Israeli shekels, it is cheaper and quicker to do so through the dollar than through a direct exchange.

The other most important currencies, after the dollar, in descending order, are the euro, the Japanese yen, the English pound sterling and the Swiss franc.

All of the currencies listed above are freely convertible currencies. The convertibility of a currency is determined by the particular foreign exchange regulatory regime in a particular country. A currency is regarded as freely convertible if the country fulfils the requirements of Article 8 of the International Monetary Fund, i.e. if there are no legal restrictions on currency transactions of any kind. In particular, a country should not impose restrictions on payments and transfers in international current transactions, avoid discriminatory currency policies, and buy back its currency balances from other countries.

Partially convertible currencies are those of countries where there are quantitative restrictions or special permissive procedures on certain types of transactions or for some participants in foreign exchange transactions. Among the techniques used by governments of such countries are import licensing, multiple exchange rates, the requirement of import deposits, and quantitative controls.

Finally, there are non-convertible or closed national monetary units. The non-convertibility of monetary units is associated with the legal prohibition of most types of currency transactions.

The existence of the above gradations of currencies indicates the degree of "marketability" of the economic mechanism of the countries that emit national monetary units, the extent and prospects for the participation of national currencies in international transactions on the world currency market.

The largest centres of the international currency market are located in London, Tokyo, New York, Frankfurt-am-Main and Brussels. The most important subjects in the sphere of international monetary circulation are governmental bodies. Monetary relations in the global economy affect the national interests of the state. It is natural that in the course of evolution of these relations the rules and laws regulating these relations, acceptable from the point of view of national interests, were elaborated.

Under floating exchange rates, the exchange rate, like any other price, is determined by the market forces of supply and demand. Significant fluctuations due to supply and demand are characteristic of exchange rates of both strong and weak currencies.

The size of the demand for a foreign currency is determined by a country's need for imports of goods and services, tourist spending, the various kinds of payments a country is required to make, etc. The supply of currency will be determined by a country's exports, loans that the country receives, etc.

The demand and supply of foreign exchange, and hence the exchange rate, are directly or indirectly influenced by the totality of the country's economic relations, both internal and external.

Factors directly affecting the dynamics of the exchange rate :

- The national income of the State;

- the level of production costs;

- The real purchasing power of money;

- level of inflation in the country;

- the balance of payments that affects the supply and demand of the currency;

- the level of interest rates in the country;

- the credibility of the currency in the global market.

Established exchange rates, or currency quotations, are systematically published by news agencies specialising in economic reporting, which have a presence on exchanges. Market currency quotations can also show the buyer's rate and the seller's rate or rates for transactions with different terms and conditions. The difference between the seller's rate and the buyer's rate (spread) is the broker's income.

Today, the FOREX international currency market is the most dynamic and liquid market, which, along with modern technologies of exchange trading and analysis, makes it one of the most attractive financial markets both for short-term investments and long-term investments.

Read more: Dow Theory: Six basic principles of Technical analysis

Commodity market

The commodity market has now lost its importance. In developed countries all large wholesale trade in raw materials and commodities is done through futures and options contracts. Real commodity exchanges have survived only in certain countries and have relatively small turnovers. They tend to serve as a form of wholesale trade in local commodities, whose markets are characterised by low concentration of production, marketing and consumption.

In the commodities market, the ticker symbol consists of a root symbol (one or two letters - incidentally, the stock rule "The shorter the ticker, the more respectable the contract"), the month of delivery and one or two digits of the year. For example, ticker WH04 corresponds to SWOT wheat W, delivered in March (H) 2004. The exchange ticker can and often does differ from the ticker awarded to the instrument by the particular vendor/data provider you are using. The tickers will then be used accordingly to their designation in the CQG. The symbols for the months of delivery are the same for all exchanges:

January (Jan) - F

February (Feb) - G

March - H

April - J

May - K

June - M

July - N

August (Augie) - Q

September (Sept) - U

October (Oct) - V

November (Nov, Novie, Navy) - X

December (Dec) - Z

Because Sept and Dec sound very similar on the phone and contracts correspond to the very popular March/June/Sept/Dec financial quarterly cycle, we often use the qualifiers Sept Labor Day and Dec Christmas/Xmas, for example - Dec Christmas Silver.

Grains

Traditionally, grains include wheat (Wheat), corn (Corn), soybeans (SoyBeans) and soy products - soybean meal and soybean oil (SoyMeal, BeanOil). The main futures and options market for these products is the SWOT, the oldest futures exchange. Beside this exchange, there are so-called secondary markets - Minneapolis, Kansas, etc. Unless otherwise explicitly stated by the broker, the order for these contracts is filled at the swot. Grain futures, along with cotton, are among the most reputable futures contracts. Strictly speaking, soybeans and their by-products are not grains, but they are traditionally lumped into this group.

The contract size for soybeans, wheat and corn is 5,000 bushels (soybean oil is 60,000 pounds or 27,216 metric tons, soybean meal is 100 short tons or 90,7185 metric tons). Since bushels are a measure of volume, the weight equivalent will be different for each variety of grain. Specifically, for SWOT maize one standard lot corresponds to 127.006 metric tonnes, for SWOT wheat to 136.0775 metric tonnes, for SWOT soybean to 136.0775 metric tonnes.

Delivery months are Dec, Mar, May, Jul, Sept (new crop) for SWOT maize; Jul (new crop), Sep, Dec, May for SWOT wheat; for SWOT soya - Sept, Nov (new crop), Jan, Mar, May, Jul, Aug; for SWOT soybean oil - Oct, Dec, Jan, Mar, May, Jul, Aug, Sep; for SWOT soybean meal - Oct, Dec, Jan, Mar, Jul, Aug, Sep.

Tickers: wheat - W, corn - C, soybean - S, soybean oil - BO, soybean meal - SM.

Tick size and quotation - wheat, soybeans and corn are quoted in 1/8th of a cent. After the dramatic events of the mid-1970s, when the price of grain products rose as a result of Soviet procurement, these contracts were quoted at 1/4, but due to the traditional conservatism of the SWOT, the price format was left the same, but the minimum price change (tick) was made double. From then on, the last digit of the quotation became always even - quotation 3604 corresponds to the price of 360 4/8 cents per bushel. Eighths of a cent, however, remained for options. One tick corresponds to $12.50, so a full cent corresponds to $50 per contract. Soybean meal is quoted in dollars per ton, with a tick size of $0.1, corresponding to $10 per contract. Soybean oil is quoted in cents per pound, the tick size is 0.01 cents, corresponding to $6 per contract.

Read more: What is a quote - concept, features, scope of application

History - the mid-70s was a turning point for grains. Since that time, grain prices moved to other, previously unseen levels. Grain markets received another shock in the summer of 1996. The cause was El Niño, a complex weather phenomenon repeated every 12-15 years with different scales and effects. Historically, wheat has traded in a range from $1.25/bushel in the late 60s to $6.50 in early '74 and $7.50 in early 1996. The average price range is $2.50 to $4.50. Soybeans - from less than $2.50 in the late '60s to nearly $13.00 in June 1973 (the famous slogan of the day was "Beans in the teens!"), with an average price range of $5.00 to $8.00. Corn ranges from $1.00 in the 60s-70s to $5.50 in 1996. Soybean meal has a historical range from $75 a short ton to $450 in June 1973, soybean oil from 75 cents a pound to $51 in October 1974.

What to fear is Mondays and the 11th of every month. "Monday mornings don't take prisoners" is a grain trader adage originating from the Weekly Crop Progress Reports published every Monday. On the 11th, the monthly USDA US and World Supply & Demand Report is published. On those dates, strong price movements are most likely on grain and agricultural markets in general. The most unpredictable and dangerous contracts are those against which new crop grains are delivered - July Wheat; Novie Beans; Sept, Dec Corn. Old/New Harvest spreads involving these months also carry higher risk, which is reflected in the exchange's collateral requirements.

Metals

Base and precious metals. Interests in trading are Hi-Grade Copper, Gold and Silver. The primary market for these futures is COMEX (Commodities Exchange), a division of NYMEX (New York Mercantile exchange). Similar contracts are offered by the SWOT, but for some unknown reason, gold and silver do not take root in Chicago. The contract size is 1,000 troy ounces for gold on the NYMEX, 5,000 troy ounces for silver and 25,000 pounds for copper.

Delivery months are all 12 months, but the most liquid months are March/June/Sept/Dec quarterly cycle.

The tickers are: gold - GC, silver - SI and copper - CP.

Ticker size and quote - Gold trades in dollars per troy ounce, with a ticker size of $0.10, corresponding to $10 per contract. Silver is also traded in dollars/cents per ounce, with a tick size of 0.5 cents, corresponding to $25 per contract (curiously, silver is one of the few contracts where the official closing price can have a quote that does not respect the tick size). Copper trades in cents per pound, with a minimum price change of 0.05 cents, corresponding to $12.50 per contract.

History - The metal market is famous for perhaps the biggest scandal in the history of the stock markets. In 1980, the Hunt brothers, Texas oil tycoons surprised the silver market by accumulating huge positions in the cash silver market and the futures market. As a result, the silver market still holds the absolute lead with a price low of $1.40 and a high of over $50 in January 1980. The gold market reacted symmetrically, from $100 to $875 in the same year 1980. The copper market was rocked by a relatively recent scandal, with attempts to manipulate the cash market by the Sumitomo dealer resulting in a dramatic fall in prices in May 1996. The historical spot-month price range is 45 cents to 160 cents/lb (December 1988).

What to fear - metals, especially the precious metals group, are sensitive to the release of financial statistics. Be afraid - first Friday of the month (unemployment release), PPI, CPI, Trade Balance, GDP. Copper correlates quite strongly with the stock indices and reacts painfully to the Industrial Production. Copper traders also keep an eye on the LME cash market and inter-monthly premiums. For gold traders, there is a lot of information about the movement of the Lease rate - the rate at which gold is accepted as collateral on the cash market. Moreover, there is an interbank market of gold and its derivatives, which functions almost around the clock.

Read more: What is the Consumer price index CPI

Energy

The primary market for crude oil, unleaded gasoline, heating oil and natural gas contracts is the NYMEX. The contract size is West Texas crude oil traded in lots of 1,000 barrels, gasoline and heating oil in lots of 42,000 gallons and gas in lots of 10,000 MMBTU (million British thermal units).

Supply months are all 12 months. There is seasonal activity, the spot month is always active almost until the last day.

Tickers: oil - CL, gasoline - HU, fuel oil - HO and gas - NG.

Tick size and quote - the minimum change in oil price is $0.01 , which corresponds to $10. It is traded in dollars per barrel. Gasoline and fuel oil, which are sub-products of oil, are traded in cents per gallon. The tick size is 0.01 cents (in reality the price usually changes by 0.05 cents), which corresponds to $4.20 per contract. Gas is traded in dollars per MMBTU, with a tick size of 0.001, corresponding to $10.

History - Energy contracts are relatively young, but the market has experienced several shocks since the 1980s. The first occurred in November 1985, when the price of oil plummeted from nearly $32 to $9.75 in less than six months. In the summer of 1990, the spot (immediate delivery) price of oil went from $15 a barrel to $40 in a matter of weeks and collapsed to $17.50.

What to fear - factors that could unbalance the energy markets include (among the unplanned) military events in the Gulf and unexpected OPEC statements/actions. Planned shocks include official API figures, the release and expected values of which can be seen in the news lines and on the trading calendar. In addition, the fuel oil and natural gas markets are heavily influenced by the weather.

Tropics (Softs)

Softs is a name that unites a large and diversified group of mainly tropical commodities, namely coffee, sugar, cotton, frozen concentrated orange juice, and cocoa. The first three are of investment value, which will be discussed below. The primary market for these is the former New York Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa Exchange, now the New York Board of Trade.

Read more: Producer Price Index (PPI). Why is this indicator published?

The size of the contract is World Sugar #11 (raw cane sugar, mostly of Brazilian origin) traded in lots of 112,000 pounds, which corresponds to 50.8 metric tons. The name of the contract, World Sugar No. 11, reflects the situation specific to this product. Most of the sugar is sold under intergovernmental agreements at prices which have nothing in common with market prices, and only about 20% of the sugar enters the free market trade. It is this sugar that is traded on NYBOT. Arabica coffee is traded in lots of 37,500 pounds, cotton is traded in lots of 50,000 pounds shipped in sacks.

Supply Months - Sugar is shipped according to the Brazilian harvest cycle against March, May, July, October (new crop). Formally there is a January contract, introduced in 2003, but it is completely inactive. Coffee has March, May, July, September, December as delivery months. Cotton - March, May, July, October, December.

Tickers: Sugar - SU, Coffee - CF, Cotton - CT.

Tick size and quote - sugar is quoted in cents per pound, with a minimum price change of 0.01 cents, corresponding to $11.20. Coffee is quoted in cents per pound, with a minimum change of 0.05 cents, corresponding to $18.75. Cotton is quoted in cents per pound, with a minimum price change of 0.01 cents, corresponding to $5.

History - these markets are classic examples of weather-driven markets. For example, the coffee market experienced four serious price shocks due to frosts in Brazil, which resulted in more than 5-fold price changes. The $1 coffee spot contract price has since served as a sort of watershed, separating a potentially explosive market from a sluggish slide. Many traders do not start buying coffee until it has passed that mark. The sugar market is somewhat unique in that it is the only market which, in the absence of any manipulation or abuse, has shown a price movement of almost 30 times - from a high of 65 cents in November 1974 to 2.29 cents in June 1985, when it was trading at a price comparable to that of the bag. Cotton is perhaps the only commodity market where price fluctuations relative to the average price are symmetrical in both frequency and magnitude, with a range of 30 cents to 115 cents.

What to fear is the weather. Freezing weather in Brazil. The devaluation of the Brazilian rial. The 11th of every month if there's a big position in cotton. Unreasonably large positions in these markets. Unreasonably large short positions in coffee in a rising market with a spot contract price above 100 cents.

Read more: What is the devaluation of currency

Execution of trades in markets

A trade position is a market obligation that includes bought or sold contracts for which no offsetting transactions have been executed. Trading activity takes place using a trading terminal or by telephone. The trader issues orders based on which the dealer opens or closes a trading position.

The management of trading positions consists of:

- opening a position - buying or selling a financial instrument as a result of executing a market or pending order;

- Position modification - modification of Stop Loss (SL) and Take Profit (TP) order levels related to an open position;

- setting pending orders - setting pending orders Buy Limit, Buy Stop, Sell Limit and Sell Stop;

- modification and deletion of pending orders that have not triggered;

- Close position - purchase or sale of a financial instrument for an existing position in order to close it as a result of the execution of a market order or orders of the types SL and TP.

A pending order is an instruction to a dealer to buy or sell a financial instrument at a specified price in the future. This order is used to open a trading position if future quotes are equal to the set level.

There are four types of pending orders:

- Buy Limit - to buy when the future "ASK" price is equal to the set value. The current price level is greater than the value of the set order. Usually this type of orders is set on the assumption that the security price will start to grow when falling to a certain level.

- Buy Stop - buy when the future price is equal to the value set. The current price level is lower than the value of the set order. Usually this type of orders is placed based on the fact that the security price will pass a certain level and will continue its growth.

- Sell Limit - sell when the future BID price is equal to the value set. The current price level is lower than the value of the set order. Usually such orders are placed in expectation that the instrument price will start to decrease, having risen to a certain level.

- Sell Stop - sell when the future "BID" price is equal to the value set. The current price level is higher than the value of the set order. Usually such orders are placed in expectation that the security price will reach a certain level and will continue to decrease.

In addition to the pending order, you can set SL and TP. Once the pending order triggers, its SL and TP are automatically set to the open position.

SL order is intended for loss minimization in case the security price starts to move in an unprofitable direction. If the security price reaches this level, the position will be closed automatically. Such order is always related to an open position or a pending order. It can be given to a dealer only together with a market or a pending order. When checking terms and conditions of this order for long positions, the ASK price is used for long positions, and for short positions the BID price is used.

TP order is intended for gaining the profit when the security price reaches the specified level. Execution of this order results in closing the position. It is always related to an open position or a pending order. The order can be given only together with a market or a pending order. When checking conditions of this order, the ASK price is used for long positions and the BID price is used for short positions.

Ask - the lowest price at which someone is willing to sell a stock, option, futures or currency. The number of securities that the seller is willing to sell at the Ask price is called the Ask Size.

Bid - a bid price, the highest price at which someone is willing to buy a particular stock, option, futures, currency. Realistically, it is the existing price at which any investor can sell his shares.

Leverage

Leverage is available on the FOREX market and is equal to 1:100. Thus, in order to open a position with a minimum contract corresponding to 0.1 lot, an amount of 100 units of the base currency is needed.


 

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What is a pattern in trading in financial markets
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Trading in the markets during the recession: a look at trading strategies and risks A recession is an extremely serious and prolonged period of dropping economic acts and data that affects an entire country or even a group of them. It has far-reaching and serious consequences that affect the country's citizens, governments, companies and investors.There is no unambiguous meaning of a recession, but it is usually characterized by a decline in a country's economic activity, including a drop in industrial production, unemployment, national GDP, sales and real income. Statistical agencies usually specify that a decline in GDP must be observed for at least two continuous quarters.Recessions are thought to be a standard component of the business cycle and occur approximately every 7 to 9 years. However, experts have no consensus on how long an economic downturn can last. Typically, a recession that lasts more than 100 consecutive days can be classified as an economic downturn, that lasts fewer than 100 days can be classified as a correction or a bearish trend. But if the economic downturn stays for much longer, several months or quarters, it can be called otherwise as an economic depression, which can last from years to even decades, and also have more serious social negative consequences.What is a double-dip recession?A dual recession is an economic downturn that leads to a brief rebound, temporary economic growth, and then a recession again. This appears to be when economic recovery indicators, such as several positive months of GDP growth, are interrupted by the following economic downturn.Dual recessions are very rare in practice. There is only a single example of a dual recession which occurred in the United States in 1982. It was brought about by a skyrocket in oil prices as per the decision by the OPEC oil cartel embargo. When the U.S. economy started to repair itself, the Fed sharply increased bank rates to curb growing inflation. Central bank rates then peaked at 21.6% and triggered an additional surge of the economic downturn in the United States.Lately, the European Union experienced a dual recession as the outcome of the COVID-19 pandemic. Europe's economic indicators dropped at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, but growth resumed in early 2021 - and France's economy rose by 0.4%, for example. But another surge in disease brought the rebound to be only in the short term, and by April 2021, the eurozone's economic indicators had fallen once more by 0.6%.Read more: Features of successful Forex trading according to GDP dataWhat are the causes of recession?Recessions are specifically brought by economic downturns, which come as a result of different kinds of factors, including:Economic shocks - these occur when there is an unexpected crisis that leads to major financial complications. The most recent and well-known example is the COVID-19 outbreak, which has caused major economic downturns around the globe.Declining income and rising debt - when personal income falls, citizens have to switch to other origins of finance, mainly credit. As debt levels rise, the bankruptcies number rises, which can undermine the economy. This is exactly what occurred with the bursting of the real estate bubble that brought the financial crisis in 2008.Bank Withdrawals - when there is news that a bank may go bankrupt, this event can cause a significant number of bank customers to pull out their money from the bank. Unsupervised runaway withdrawals from banks can lead to bank failures and growing fear in the banking and financial industry. A mass consumer panic could also cause an economic downturn.Hypothetical asset bubbles - when the price of financial assets is inflated above their objective value, this is called a bubble. As a result, prices become volatile, often causing them to plummet. The following panic among market participants can cause companies and independent individuals to sell most of their assets and decrease risk.Trading during a recessionYou can open both long and short positions when you trade with derivatives. This leads to the benefit from both the downside and upside of the market.It is essential to mention that while volatility can provide new profit opportunities, it can also cause serious risks. It is well known that asset prices can fluctuate wildly while in a recession, which means that potential profits may become losses.This is especially true if you opened a short position while in an abrupt fall, but your forecast was wrong and the market rallied instead of falling. The size of resulting loss you may incur can be very large.Therefore, it is crucial to adopt risk management actions, such as setting an insurance stop loss, to protect trades from large losses if the market resists you. When you trade leveraged financial tools such as CFDs or forex, your possible losses can also increase, so it's essential to neglect the possibility of losing capital at an amount greater than you can afford to waste.Now let's see a few different types of assets and their reaction to a recessionIn a recession, what happens to the bonds?Prices of government bonds typically rise in an economic collapse. They are referred to as a safe haven from loss during an economic drop. The study found that government bonds increased 12% during the economic collapse in 2008 and 8% during the technology crisis from 2000 to 2002.The reason for this is that the bond market is future-oriented and shows investors' forecasts for the future. Thus, it turns out that by the time the economic collapse appears, much of the losses for the bond market are already factored in, and investors are expecting the post-recession recovery level.Central banks also choose to purchase bonds as part of their actions to stimulate the state economy by altering monetary policy. This usually coincides with a decline in central bank interest rates.On the other hand, not all bonds decline in an exact manner. It is important to analyze a bond's yield and how it relates to bank rates. For instance, bonds that were issued a long time ago have higher yields and they usually do better in a low-bank-rate situation due to their more appealing than recent bonds with lower yields.After the economic decline is over, when bank rates start to grow and monetary stimulus packages finish, then fresher bonds may have greater yields.It should be clear to recognize that junk bonds do not perform exactly as government bonds because of the difference in attitudes toward them. Junk bonds are considered less stable and more unsafe investments, while government bonds are usually thought of as more stable, especially when issued by countries with stable economies - such as Japan, Germany and United States.Read more: What is a Bond: types, risks, difference from stock, pros and consIn a recession, what happens to commodities?Typically, when an economy slows down, industrial output falls due to a decrease in infrastructure projects and new housing construction, which leads to a drop in demand for basic goods and lower prices.The value of some commodities while in an economic downfall, such as metals for industry, farming goods and energy, depends on if they are decayable or not. If a commodity cannot be held for a prolonged period of time, its value is likely to fall while in a recession when demand for it falls. This will be supported by a subsequent decline in production and viable storage problems.We remember the consequences in April 2020 of oil storage overflows when the highest volume of crude oil ever was left at the seaports. The oil glut caused global anxiety in the markets, and the price of WTI crude fell below zero for the first time, because investors were afraid that they would have to handle the supply of oil themselves.But prices of some basic resources react variously - especially as they are thought of as a storehouse of elemental value. This is usually the case for gold (XAU) and silver (XAG), but also for other metals with high demand like palladium (XPD) and platinum (XPL).In a recession, what happens to the gold?Purchasing gold while in an economic downturn is often seen as a beneficial decision because of its name "safe haven." For instance, during the 2008 collapse, when S&P 500 fell by 37% in value, the value of gold increased accordingly by 24%.The conventional wisdom is that metals retain their value and value in economic collapses due to the constant demand for them if government banks hold gold or from industries that do not always experience recessions exactly - such as technological advances and medicine.But, this connection became a self-exploration prophecy of sorts. Investors believe that gold is a safe haven, which is why it acts that way.It's crucial to mention that gold may not always grow in recessions like in other markets, gold prices experience both peaks and troughs-but it is thought to be more stable than stocks.One can open a gold position in many various ways, like by purchasing gold bars and coins made from precious metals suppliers, focusing on ETFs, trading CFDs or futures.Furthermore, whenever you open a position while in a recession, it's important to know the risk. Markets can adjust rapidly, and even well-known safe havens can take traders off guard by sudden, unpredictable price movements.In a recession, what happens to the stock market?Usually, the stock market is known as an indicator of the health of an economy because it reveals to us how easily companies can access national capital and how actively individuals invest in risky assets. Not surprisingly, while in an economic collapse, the stock market drops as investors exit the riskiest assets.On the other hand, there are categories of stocks that become leaders while in financial market downturns due to their gain and rise disregarding of the economic cycle. Such stocks are named "defensive stocks," and they usually include telecommunications companies, utilities, health care and consumer staples. The products that these companies offer are considered vital, so these companies keep on making strong sales and steady gains while other industry sectors experience the entire negative impact of the drop.Nonetheless, a stock market fall is not always equivalent to an economic downturn, specifically, if the drop is contained inside the market-it could simply be a local correction or a bearish trend for other reasons. Actually, many economists think that the stock market itself is not an adequate indicator of a nation's economic boom.Do gold stocks rise in a recession?Simply said, yes, gold stocks tend to rise in price while in a recession. While most parts of the stock market may fall under a recession, gold generally increases in value. This leads to gold mining and production companies getting a boost.On the other hand, changes in the price of gold stocks depend on their financial act and investor sentiment towards them. Therefore, there is no assurance that each gold stock will grow in price. You need to do your own analysis of the fundamentals of each company individually.In a recession, what happens to the forex market?Forex is completely immune to an economical collapse unless each country is destroyed by an economic collapse, traders will find a way to exploit the difference in power between the two currencies.Some currencies or groups of currencies will eventually fall as their national economies collapse in the recession. However, other currencies may take their place. Essentially, forex trading requires long positions in one currency and short positions in another, so forex traders can simultaneously trade the currency of a country whose economy is both in crisis and thriving.When a nation's economy goes into recession, central bank rates fall, making the country's currency less attractive for investment. Typically, currencies with low bank rates are used to purchase currencies with higher interest rates - a so-called carry trade technique.Meanwhile, as the economy repairs itself from the crisis and bank rates grow, the national currency begins to build up as international and national investors will seek to store their money in that country's banks or buy its currency.Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their studyWhen was the last recession?The last economical downturn was in the middle of 2020 in the U.K. For the first time in 11 years, the economy reserved 20.4% from April to June 2020. The COVID-19 virus that began led to a sudden drop in household spending, a drop in industrial production in factories and construction, and a halt in transportation and travel, causing GDP to drop for two continuing quarters.Eventually, the economy did recover, and although there were renewed fears of a second dip in 2021, the GDP chart stayed securely in the shape of a "V." But, the lingering uncertainty in the economy has raised fright that another downturn could occur in 2022.The last considerable economic collapse was the financial crisis in 2008 which started in December 2007 and carried on till June 2009. By that time, it was the most lengthy recession since WWII. It was brought about by the catastrophe in the housing market, which was caused by poor control of the mortgage market in the United States.Even though it began in the U.S., it rapidly spread throughout Europe, including Great Britain, Germany, and France, as well as Asia.
Dec 24, 2022
IndexaCo
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Trading with Ichimoku: the cloud, its purpose and trading signals
Trading with Ichimoku: the cloud, its purpose and trading signals If you already have basic knowledge of how to work in financial markets and are on the verge of building your own trading system, I recommend studying the Ichimoku indicator. The Ichimoku indicator combines the power of five lines and Japanese imagery. Currently, it is becoming more and more popular among traders, being a solid foundation of their trading systems. This indicator can also help you achieve success and gain financial independence.Senkou Span and the Ichimoku CloudLet 's recall the definition of these lines:Senkou Span A (SSA) - the middle of the distance between Tenkan-sen (TS) and Kijun-sen (KS), shifted forward by the value of the second time interval.Senkou Span B (SSB) - the average value of the price for the third time interval, shifted forward by the value of the second time interval.Translated from Japanese – "riding, galloping ahead of the carriage."We have already said that the main lines of the indicator are the levels of a 50% pullback at various time intervals. They allow you to dynamically track the levels of these pullbacks, i.e. the possible values of trend corrections. The lines also make up a set of support/resistance levels of various strengths, their analogue can be considered a set of moving averages.Read more: What is Technical Analysis and why does an investor need itThe author of the indicator, Goichi Hosoda, conceived Senkou Spans as future levels of resistance and support, which draw a zone of predominance of the interests of market participants.Picture 1. SSA and SSB lines.Senkou-Span A gives us information about the short-term trend in the market. Its direction is recommendations for choosing a strategy: buy or sell. SSA is directed up – buy, down – sell. Finding the SSA above the SSB is a bullish market, under the SSB is a bearish one. Its second function is to act as a resistance or support level. However, the author of the indicator, Mr. Hosoda, considered this line weak for such a function, but this role cannot be ignored when analyzing the work with the chart.Senkou-Span B – unlike SSA, Hosoda paid more attention to this line. Having a larger time interval parameter, it, like Kijun Sen, carries the function of providing information about long-term trends in the market. Its direction, like all lines, gives us the choice of the direction of entry into the market. And the resistance/support function gives us the opportunity to find entry points into the market.And a very important point is that the exit of this line in the horizontal direction signals us about the end of the momentum of movement, a possible flat and a likely change in trend. Which gives us the opportunity to be ready, under certain conditions, to exit the market.However, the uniqueness of the indicator is that these two lines tell us about the future. Their mutual location, the location of the price, the fifth, not yet considered by us, the Chinkou Span and Kijun Sen and Tenkan Sen lines relative to them give us a lot of information about the market, its condition and prospects.Ichimoku Cloud and how to use itThe author of the indicator, Goichi Hosoda, conceived Senkou Spans as future levels of resistance and support, which draw a zone of predominance of the interests of market participants. According to Hosoda's plan, a change in the color of this zone signals a possible trend change or at least a rollback (correction).Look at Picture 2. If we analyze it carefully, we will see that this is indeed the case: the changed color of the cloud allowed the indicator user to see changes in market sentiment almost at the very beginning of this action. This signal is the most significant asset of the Ichimoku indicator.Picture 2. We track changes in trends using the Ichimoku cloud.If we look at Picture 2 again, we will pay attention to the fact that clouds look different not only in color, but also in shape. This form is set by the mutual arrangement of SSA and SSB. The unidirectional movement of the Senkoi in a direction other than horizontal tells us about the strength of the trend. The steeper the angle of the cloud movement, the stronger the trend and momentum of the market movement. The exit of these lines to the horizontal signals the equilibrium in the market (flat) and a possible change in the trend.Read more: Technical analysis on the forex marketHowever, here it is necessary to note such a moment as the width (thickness) of the cloud. The strength of the momentum of movement sometimes gives a negative reflection. It's like at the front. When a powerful, strong, fleeting blow leads to the breakthrough of all the enemy's resistances and withdrawal to his rear, but at the same time the rear of the attacker himself becomes very vulnerable. Because there are a lot of opponents left in them, and the attacker's reserves are far behind.So it is in this situation. With a powerful pulse, the thickness of the cloud is minimal, sometimes SSA and SSB merge into one line. These places are the most vulnerable to a breakdown when trends change. A more systematic, long-term movement, with reasonable pullbacks, draws a very "thick" cloud, which becomes very problematic for those who decide to change trends in the market. The thicker the cloud, the more interests there are of those who "drew" this cloud, and they just don't give up without a fight.Important. At the same time, it is necessary to note a very important point in the combination of these lines. When the SSB goes horizontal, and the SSA continues its directional movement, it means that we have only a weakening of the momentum of movement, but not a trend. At the same time, the Ichimoku cloud is expanding, which means that the prevailing interests in the market are expanding both in time and price ranges.In addition, the cloud carries another wonderful function. It, figuratively speaking, forms areas of "high" and "low" pressure. Acting as support and resistance, cloud lines form areas of interest for market participants. When the price is below the cloud, we are talking about the predominance of bearish trends in the market and, accordingly, the prevailing recommendation will be "sell". When the price enters the zone above the clouds, the bulls will have the initiative in the market, which means that we will stick to the buying strategy. At the same time, the cloud has another remarkable property. Inside it, the interests of bulls and bears intersect, consensus is established in the market, or maybe, on the contrary, there is a massacre and no one wants to give in, and we are seeing a flat.Ichimoku Cloud Trading SignalsWe have already briefly familiarized ourselves with some of the signals that the cloud and its components give us. Now let's look at this action in more detail. Let's start with the simple ones.Independent signals from SSA and SSBTrend signals:1. Recalculation of SSA and SSB. As we noted above, the most important signal for determining the trend from the Ichimoku indicator is the moment of intersection of the SSA and SSB lines, and the next change in the color of the cloud. An important condition for confirming this signal is the unidirectional movement of SSA and SSB following the intersection in the direction of the signal direction. The SSA will help with this. SSA is directed up – buy, down — sell.Read more: Features of intraday trading on the Forex market2. Unidirectional movement of SSA and SSB. As we have already noted, SSA is an indicator of the short-term trend in the market, and SSB tells us about the long-term preferences of the market. Therefore, when short-term and long-term trends coincide, we get their strengthening. Therefore, this signal itself is very strong. With a directional movement other than horizontal, this signal allows us to determine both the beginning of the trend and its continuation in a timely manner, thereby allowing us to enter the market in those conditions when we missed the beginning of the trend.3. SSA and SSB oncoming trafficPicture 3. Oncoming traffic.This action of the lines occurs at the moment when a rapid and final end of a long-term trend occurs in the market and precedes their crossing soon. This signal can also be used to take profits on the previous movement and enter the market in a different direction.Reversal (correction) signalPicture 4. Reversal (correction) signal.A reversal trading signal in this combination of Ichimoku indicator lines is issued by SSA. Being an indicator of short-term trends, SSA gives us the opportunity to timely determine the moment of exit from the trend, and catch the entry point into the market in new conditions.Conditions for the signalIf you look closely at Picture 4, you will see that by this time the SSB had already moved from directional movement to horizontal, which should have indicated a weakening of the momentum of the previous movement, and we should at least have expected a rollback (correction) of this movement. This is the first phase of the signal. Then, after a while, confirmation of this signal follows, the SSA is directed in the opposite direction of the movement and the price gives a reversal. Let's take an example of the work of SSA and SSB.Picture 5. An example of the reversal signal.Somewhere behind the scenes, the beginning of a bearish trend remains. Then SSA and SSB went horizontal (pos. 1), which corresponded to a short flat movement. Then the SSA and SSB turned down simultaneously (pos.2). We received a signal to continue the downtrend, and the opportunity to enter the market. After a while, SSB went horizontal, a signal of slowing momentum and a recommendation to be ready to exit the market, but SSA continued its downward movement, recommending that we hold the position.Then the SSA turned up (pos. 3), a signal of a change in trend (or correction) and exit from sales positions. Recommendation to buy. After a while, the SSA also entered the horizontal, advising us to be ready for the end of the correction and recommending that we exit the purchases. And then the unidirectional movement of both lines followed again (item 4), recommending that we re-enter the market with sales and keep them until the SSA changes its direction.Read more: 15 forex trading signals for beginners that you need to knowSignals of interaction of the price chart and cloud linesAs we already know from the definitions, the SSA and SSB lines act as support and resistance levels of the market. Based on this, strategies for working in the market are built on the breakdown or rebound of the price chart from these lines. Important components of this strategy are the factors of the mutual position of the chart and the cloud, as well as the color of the cloud standing in the way of the price chart. Let's look at these points with examples.Picture 6. Operation of the cloud.Picture 6 clearly shows how the cloud and its components work when interacting with the price chart. If the price approaches a bearish cloud from below, then SSA stands in its way (in this case, it acts as the lower boundary of the cloud and resistance). The breakdown of this line will allow the price to enter the cloud, where, as we described above, interests will meet with the opposing side. And the bulls' goal will be the opposite side of the cloud, where SSB will already act as resistance, and SSA will already act as support for them in this confrontation. Entering the cloud usually indicates a high probability of flat movement. This will be confirmed by the lines of the cloud that will be drawn at this time.Realizing that a breakdown of the SSB will put an end to the long-term trend, bears will resist at this border of the cloud. Especially since this is their cloud. And usually, when this line is reached, there is a rebound from it, and the price rushes back to the lower border of the SSA cloud. Such maneuvers can last as long as you want. If, during the reverse course to the SSA, this line turns out to be broken down, then we will most likely get a continuation of the bearish trend, the rebound will give the bulls new strength, and the price will again rush to the upper border of the cloud. A breakdown of the SSB will mean the price entering the growth zone, the victory of the bulls and the final trend change.The same thing happens with other variants of the price chart and the cloud. Only the options change, which line is the first on the way to the price chart.Thus, we have several more signals from the Ichimoku indicator.Breakdown of the upper boundary of the cloud up – a buy signal;Breakdown of the lower boundary of the cloud down – a sell signal;A rebound from the lower border of the cloud from below is a signal to continue the trend and sell;A rebound from the upper border of the cloud from above is a signal to continue the trend and buy.Read more: Forex Signals - what is it? How to use them?Working inside the Ichimoku Cloud (flat)Breakdown of the cloud boundary and entry into the cloud – a buy or sell signal with the goal – another cloud boundary.A rebound from the cloud boundaries is a buy or sell signal with a goal – another cloud boundary.When working with the price and cloud chart, as we said above, the moment of the thickness of this cloud and the angle of contact between the price and the SSB is important. The thinner the cloud, the more likely it is to break through. The sharper the angle between the price chart and the SSA or SSB, the less chance this line has to resist a breakdown.Here is briefly what I wanted to convey to you in this lesson.
Nov 09, 2022
IndexaCo
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About the US Dollar Index DXY
US Dollar Index, index, About the US Dollar Index DXY To assess the current state of the economy and future trends, investors use various tools: GDP dynamics, stock indexes, unemployment, inflation, PMI business activity index, producer inflation, consumer expectations indicator, etc. But in addition to stock indexes, you can also analyze the value of the national currency of the United States - the dollar.Since the stock market is an integral part of the economy, as integral as the dollar in the economy, the dynamics of the value of the national currency can serve as signals potentially important for the investor. The dollar is the main currency of international settlements, the main world reserve currency, the main volume of debt obligations in the world is issued in US dollars. Therefore, the value of the dollar is a kind of barometer not only of the US economy, but also of the world economy. The dollar has its own index - the DXY dollar index (DXY or USDX tickers).In this article, we will look at what the US dollar index DXY is, how it is calculated and how to interpret the dynamics of its value.What does the US dollar index DXY meanThe US dollar Index (DXY) is a calculated indicator of the market value of the US dollar relative to the "basket" of monetary units of the countries - the most important trading partners of the United States. The index basket consists of 6 currencies: euro, Japanese yen, British pound sterling, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona and Swiss franc.We can say that indirectly, the index value characterizes the dynamics of US exports, because with its growth, the demand for the dollar also increases.To calculate the index, currencies are assigned different weights in accordance with the shares of currencies in US international trade:At the time of the index's creation, to a greater extent, it was they who held the primacy in the foreign trade turnover of the United States. More than half of the weight (57.6%) has the euro, and the share of the smallest component – the Swiss franc - is 3.6%. Based on the weight of each currency pair, it can be concluded that the role of the euro in the formation of the dollar index is several times higher than that of other currencies.The DXY index is calculated using the weighted average geometric calculation method. Each national currency of the US partners from the currency basket of the index has its share of influence on the USDX index. The formula has the following form:The index value reflects the change in the ratio of the dollar to other currencies compared to its base value. The coefficient 50.14348112, which is involved in the calculation formula as the first term, was selected in such a way that the initial value of the index was 100 p. The power coefficients are equal to the shares of the corresponding currencies in the index base.The growth of the index indicates an increase in the value of the dollar compared to the "basket" of currencies, i.e. its strengthening, and vice versa, its decline indicates that it has become weaker. If the index value is greater than 100, then the strength of the dollar has increased by the corresponding amount. And, conversely, when the dollar price decreases, the index decreases.History of the US dollar index DXYThe calculation of the dollar index began in 1973 after the termination of the Breton Woods Agreement. In accordance with this agreement, for a long time, the currencies of 44 countries were pegged to the dollar, which, in turn, was backed by gold ($35 per troy ounce (gold standard).In 1973, the United States refused to link to gold, because its reserves in the United States were limited to a certain amount, and the dollars secured by gold were not enough for the development of world trade. Since then, countries have switched to floating exchange rates of national currencies.In the same 1973, the DXY index was created as a barometer evaluating the "paper" dollar in relation to other currencies. Initially, the basic basket of the index included 10 currencies, of which 8 were European. The base of the index has changed only once – in 1999 in connection with the formation of the eurozone and the emergence of the euro. The euro replaced 5 currencies of European countries from the index. Until 1999, the most significant currency for calculating the USDX index was the national currency of Germany – the German mark.The initial value of the index was taken as 100 p. The following index calculation results are measured as a ratio to the base value.Initially, the US dollar index was developed by the US Federal Reserve System in 1973 to obtain the average value of the US dollar weighted by foreign bilateral trade, freely floating against world currencies. Now the index is calculated by the ICE exchange holding (Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.). The calculation is made daily, once an hour. There are no regular adjustments or rebalancing of the ICE US dollar index.The values and dynamics of the dollar index may be different, but the following values are taken as benchmarks.More than 100 pp. – similar values indicate the strength of the dollar relative to other national currencies from the index basket.Equal to 100 p.p. – this means that the dollar is at the level of the other currencies of the index basket.Less than 100 pp. – this indicates the weakness of the US national currency.As can be seen on the graph, the maximum index value (160 pp.) was fixed in 1985, the minimum (72 pp.) - during the 2008 crisis. At the time of publication of the article (10.08.2022), the index value is 106.303 pp. This means that the value of the dollar has increased by 6,303 p.p. compared to the baseline value. This is the highest value in the last 20 years.Thus, the DXY index measures how the dollar price changes on the world market.What does the dynamics of the dollar index DXY indicateThe specificity of the DXY dollar index is that its dynamics cannot be interpreted unambiguously. Unlike conventional currencies, which fall when the country's economy deteriorates, the US dollar can strengthen both during economic growth in the US and during a global recession or economic downturn. This feature is due to the fact that the dollar is the world's reserve currency and plays a unique global role in the global economy. On the one hand, investors see the American currency as an opportunity to make money on the economic recovery, on the other hand, they consider the dollar as a relatively safe asset that will allow them to survive difficulties while saving their savings.  This feature is called the "dollar smile theory". There are 3 phases in the behavior of the dollar:Phase 1 – Dollar growth due to increased risk aversion. The dollar is strengthening with a decrease in the growth rate of the global economy and an increase in risks in the markets. In such a situation, in order to avoid possible losses or minimize them, investors exit risky assets and direct funds to the dollar, which is considered a "safe haven currency". At this stage, the investor's goal is to preserve, not increase, the available capital. In addition, to invest in US Treasury bonds that are considered risk-free in any economic situation, dollars are also needed, which leads to increased demand for them and an increase in the exchange rate.Phase 2 - Economic recession and recession. At this stage, the economy is showing signs of slowing down or even recession, and the Fed is starting to cut interest rates. Investors are starting not to buy, but to sell the dollar in order to switch to currencies that can provide higher returns. Demand for the dollar is weak, which leads to its fall.Another factor is the relative economic efficiency of the United States and other countries. The US economy may not necessarily be stagnant, but if its economic growth is weaker than in other countries, then investors will prefer to sell US dollars and buy the currency of a country with a stronger economy. As a result, the lower part of the "smile" is formed - the dollar is falling.Phase 3 – Economic growth. The values of fundamental indicators are beginning to indicate an improvement in the economic situation, i.e. the phase of economic growth. Companies are increasing production, there are signs of economic recovery. Investors' risk appetite is returning. Thus, with stronger GDP growth in the US economy compared to other countries, the dollar is also strengthening. Thus, the key factor in the dynamics of the dollar index is relative economic growth. If the economy of the "rest of the world" can grow faster than the US economy, this will lead to a weakening of the US dollar. If the US economy is growing faster, then the US dollar will grow. In fact, the influx of foreign money into American enterprises and investments leads to an increase in the value of the dollar.An example of such a scenario is the 2008 crisis. In mid-2008, investors sought stability during the crisis period in the form of investing in the dollar, which led to its strengthening. As the situation normalized and the crisis processes slowed down, the focus of investors' interests began to shift to more profitable and risky instruments. This flow of capital led to a significant drop in the US dollar in early 2009. The recovery of the US economy from the crisis caused an increase in demand for the dollar and, as a result, its strengthening until the end of the 1st half of 2010.The factor of updating the highs of the dollar value relative to world currencies from the reserve basket in 2022: the Fed started tightening monetary policy earlier than other major central banks (against which the yield of government treasury bonds began to rise), the problems of the eurozone, the devaluation trend in the euro and yen, the weakness of stock markets. All this together makes American investments more profitable, because now they promise higher profits. Finally, investors and analysts are concerned about the global recession – the dollar is traditionally considered the most reliable asset in turbulent times.Let's take a closer look at how the change in the dollar index affects the dynamics of some investment instruments and the economy of enterprises.BondsThe increase in the profitability of investments in US Treasury bonds is accompanied by an increase in the DXY index. Bonds are traditionally considered the lowest-risk assets that allow you to save capital. At the same time, in order for them to be attractive for investment, their profitability should be higher than the inflation rate.Currently, due to an increase in the interest rate and an increase in bond yields, investors are starting to exit riskier assets of other countries, i.e. there is a flow of funds into the dollar for further investments in bonds. In addition, due to the unstable global economic and geopolitical situation, the demand for the most risk-free instruments is growing. This leads to a strengthening of the dollar.StocksA stronger dollar is not always good for equity investors. It means:A decrease in the profits of exporting companies and global corporations from sales of products in other countries.An increase in the costs of exporters, which leads to an increase in prices for the goods they produce and, as a result, a decrease in competitive advantage.Increasing the costs of foreign companies operating in the United States.Thus, the growth of the DXY index signals a weakening of the US stock market, i.e. the dollar index is basically moving opposite to the S&P 500 index.Such a decline in the market is due to the fact that a strong dollar makes imports cheaper and exports more expensive and less competitive in world markets. The rising dollar affects the profits of many global corporations.Exporting companies and global corporationsCompanies that supply their products around the world make more profit with a weak dollar.The high values of the DXY index, i.e. the growth in the value of the dollar negatively affects US exports. In this case, the volume of goods purchased by other countries decreases, because they need more of their own currency to buy the same volume. That is, US companies face the following consequences of the strengthening of the dollar:Decrease in the volume of exports.Margin reduction, as a result of a decrease in the volume of funds received, including for the development of the company. In this case, there is a significant adverse effect of exchange rate fluctuations.The weakening of the exchange rate of a foreign currency against the US dollar adversely affects the company's sales and revenues denominated in a foreign currency (other than the dollar), and usually leads to the company raising prices in other currencies to compensate for the strengthening of the US dollar, potentially reducing demand for its products. If in some cases, for some reason, the company decides not to raise prices, this negatively affects the profit that the company earns in US dollars: when converting foreign exchange earnings into US dollars, the company receives less (since the dollar has become more expensive).Importing companiesA strong dollar benefits US importers. With the growth of the dollar, imports for American companies become cheaper, and they can make more profit. For companies in other countries that import products from the United States – on the contrary, because they have to spend more of their currency to buy goods or raw materials.Commodity marketsPricing for most commodities occurs in the US dollar due to its role as the leading reserve currency. Local production costs and consumer prices can be expressed in different currencies, but for wholesale deliveries, the US dollar is used as a means of exchange. Over time, the growth of the dollar usually leads to a decrease in commodity prices, while the weakness of the reserve currency is a factor in the growth of prices in commodity markets. An increase in the DXY index leads to a decline in all commodity markets.Below is a graph of oil prices and the DXY index, which shows the inverse correlation of the dollar index with oil prices.In addition to the impact of the dollar's value on financial and commodity markets, it is worth mentioning separately the following global consequences for the economies of other countries:An increase in the debt burden on the budgets of countries that have dollar loans. After all, it is a well-known fact that the bulk of the world's debt obligations are denominated in US dollars. US banks actively lend not only to companies and businesses, but also to entire states. With the growth of the dollar, borrowers have to pay more on their debts.Emigration of capital from countries. When the national currency (other than the dollar) weakens, it forces large businesses and investors to withdraw funds from the economy of this country, which is an additional factor in the weakening of the local currency.Negative impact on economic growth. The effect of the dollar's growth is felt by importing companies, manufacturers who are heavily dependent on imported components from the United States. In the conditions of modern global globalization, it is difficult to find production facilities that are 100% provided by local markets. This is especially true for the production of complex technological products. To maintain output volumes at the same level, manufacturers need to spend more money on purchases, which often leads to losses. Therefore, a compromise option is to reduce the volume of output. On the scale of the country's economy, this means a drop in GDP.Pros and cons of the DXY Dollar IndexLike any other indicator, the US dollar index has its pros and cons:AdvantagesExtensive use of the index. The index is calculated around the clock.Availability of futures and options on the index. Index futures can act as a leading indicator of the movement of currency pairs. For example, if a bearish candle appears on his chart, it may mean that a surge will occur on the currency charts.Allows you to analyze the value of the dollar with more objectivity than the dynamics of a single currency pair.DisadvantagesA small number of currencies in the index, as well as a large proportion of the euro, which, when it fluctuates, leads to significant distortions and inadequate index values.It has stable power coefficients that do not correspond to the current modern structure of the US foreign trade turnover. The weights were last changed in 1999 after the introduction of the euro and have remained unchanged since then. However, much has changed in trade relations with the United States. For example, China, South Korea and Mexico have become key trading partners of the United States. The diagram below shows the structure of US foreign trade turnover in 2021:For a more adequate reflection of the US trade balance with other countries, the Fed calculates the Trade-weighted Dollar Index (TWDI). The basket of this index includes 26 currencies. Currency weights are recalculated annually. However, despite such a large number of currencies compared to the DXY index, the dynamics of the indices are almost the same due to the fact that the euro also has a lot of weight in TWDI.ConclusionThe US dollar index is a synthetic instrument reflecting the current dynamics of the price of the US currency. The index shows the strength or weakness of the US dollar more objectively than in relation to any one currency. This tool is used in their work by traders, investors, stock analysts. It gives a correct assessment of currency market trends and all assets in dollars. The global economic situation largely depends on the state of the American economy. The strength of the dollar can be considered as a temperature indicator not only of the US economy, but also of the global economy.The dynamics of the index indicates certain trends in the economy, but it is impossible to assess the current situation and trend by only one indicator. Moreover, the specificity of the index lies in the fact that the dynamics may indicate completely opposite trends – the dollar index shows its growth both during economic growth and during recessions. Therefore, the index can act as one of the tools in the investor's arsenal, but it is always necessary to conduct a comprehensive analysis of a number of macroeconomic indicators.
Oct 19, 2022
IndexaCo
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Technical analysis for beginners
Technical analysis for beginners One of the most popular methods of analyzing stock instruments is graphical technical analysis. Technical analysis is one of the main methods of analyzing and forecasting future asset prices.In this article we will consider the basic aspects of technical analysis: what it is, how it differs from fundamental analysis, the main tools and examples of their practical application.Technical and fundamental analysisTechnical analysis is a set of methods that allow you to analyze the chart and make a decision on buying/selling a particular instrument in the securities markets. Or, more simply, these are various ways of analyzing quotation charts in order to predict future price behavior.If fundamental analysis answers the question "which stocks or currency pair to buy?", then technical analysis shows at what point in time to buy.The fundamentalist is trying to understand the reason for the market movement, and the "tech guy" is interested in the very fact of this movement. All that a technician needs to know is that such market dynamics simply exist, and what exactly caused such a movement is not particularly important.The task of fundamental analysis is to help an investor buy a stake in a quality business. The task of technical analysis is to help the investor enter into a transaction at the best price. Or, in other words, to determine the optimal entry point.Trade directionsLong. When an investor waits for the growth of the paper, he buys them. In professional language, "longs", trades "long", long stocks / futures / etc., a long position, i.e. earns on the growth of value. In a simple way, bought cheaper, sold more expensive.Short. If a trader is waiting for the price to decrease, he sells them, in professional language "shorts", trades short, short position. Earns money by reducing the cost of the instrument.How can you sell something that was not in the portfolio?You borrow securities from a broker and sell them at the current high price. Then, when they become cheaper, the securities are bought back and given to the broker, and the difference between the "high" and "low" price is yours.Features of shorts. The broker lends the securities at a percentage. That is, if you pay only the commission for the transaction in the long, then in the short you also pay% for the debt. This should be borne in mind when calculating the profitability of the strategy and when entering a deal. The amount of the percentage must be specified with the broker. Usually, during intraday trading (when you short during the day and close the deal during the day), % is not taken, it is taken to transfer the position through the night.We wrote in detail about the technology of opening short positions in our article "How to short stocks".Graphic trendsAll technical analysis is price forecasting based on the history of the price movement itself. The market can have only two states: trend and flat (horizontal, sideways).Chart analysis always begins with determining the trend on the instrument. The trend is drawn on the older time frames so that there is an understanding of the global trend – in which direction it is necessary to look for inputs.The trend in a growing market is a consistent increase in the highs and lows on the chart.The trend in a falling market is a consistent decrease in the highs and lows on the chart.Trend rules. The trend will continue its movement rather than change direction. The task of the investor/trader is to trade according to the trend and join it at a comfortable entry point.A trend breakdown most often means a possible reversal or consolidation in the market. If the trend is strong, then we see on the chart that each previous pullback is higher (lower) than the previous one.Rules for building graphical modelsOn the uptrend chart, the trend is based on the minimums of candles/bars.On a downtrend, we build the trend on the highs of candles/ bars. For example, the global bearish trend since 2013 on the weekly chartHow to work on trends. The investor expects an entry on the test (touch) of the price of the trend line, that is, when the price has reached the line as much as possible and has strayed, it is possible to enter the transaction.Support and resistance levelsThe price chart always moves in waves. On the bases and peaks of the waves, we can see the levels at which the price turned around, or continued its movement after a long sideways movement.The support level is the border where the price turns up. It does not allow the price to fall lower.The resistance level is the boundary where the price turns down. It does not allow the price to go higher.Read more: The basis of trading: Support and Resistance levelsLevel RulesThe support line can become a resistance line and vice versa.The more often the price hits the level, the stronger it is.It's always a range, not a clear line.Mirror level.One of the strongest levels is considered to be the mirror level.Mirror levelIt can be seen on various instruments and time intervals.How to trade by levels:A risky option is to enter the breakdown level (marked with a blue arrow).Moderate - entering a position after the level test (marked with a red arrow).Stop loss - is set for the level / the nearest minimum / the mathematical risk/profit ratio is calculated.Price channelsA price channel is a limited trading range in which the price moves for a certain time. The boundaries of the trading channel are limited by two lines: support and resistance.Read more: What is Technical Analysis and why does an investor need itLike levels, price channels can be ascending, descending, and sideways depending on the phase in the market.How to build a price channel on a chart?For an ascending trading channel, it is necessary to determine the beginning of a trend movement and draw a trend line (the main channel line) along the first two lowest minimums (reference points). Then, parallel to it, project another trend line to the upper point located between them.How to trade?Most often, trading is conducted inside the channel: when testing the channel boundary – the entrance, the target is the opposite channel boundary, the stop loss is placed outside the channel boundary based on the risk guidelines of each individual trader.ConclusionTrading on the stock market is based on the same principles for everyone. But everyone's trading strategies are different - simply because investors' goals and risk profiles are different. The investor selects the most suitable strategy for him and by the level of risk, and by time frames, and by the system.The combination of fundamental and technical analysis in trading gives an excellent result.  Complementary methods allow the investor to justify the transaction based on fundamental indicators, and the use of knowledge and technical analysis tools allows you to enter into a transaction on an optimal risk/profit combination.Read more: Technical analysis on the forex market
Oct 19, 2022
IndexaCo
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How brokers cheat and how to protect against it
How brokers cheat and how to protect against it Many investors are familiar with the negative attitude of people towards investments. It is especially difficult for beginners – their relatives and friends begin to dissuade and tell scary stories of those who were deceived and lost all their savings on investments. Stories also periodically appear in the media about how an employee of some broker or bank ran away with clients' money, how the promised mountains of gold turned into black holes of capital losses.Is everything really so scary in the investment market, who is to blame for all this and how to protect yourself from fraud on the stock exchange?Who is a brokerA broker is a professional bidder. He is an intermediary between the exchange and the investor. Not all bidders can trade directly on the exchange, there are certain restrictions for this. Organizations that do not have direct access to trading on the exchange, as well as individual investors, can only trade on the exchange through an intermediary broker. The broker registers the client on the exchange, organizes the client's technical access to trading, withholds taxes in accordance with the legislation. For its activities, the broker charges clients a commission, which depends on the chosen tariff and the operations that the investor performs on his account. A bank or an investment company with a special license can act as a broker.Thus, in his investment activity, the investor contacts directly with the broker. Therefore, choosing a broker is very important. The client's capabilities also depend on the broker: available exchanges and a set of tools, the threshold amount of investment, costs and quality of service. Well, if something goes wrong, it is logical to assume that who is to blame? - broker!Broker's deception or investor's mistake?So how can a broker cheat? Next, let's look at the main traps that an investor can fall into and which can cause the loss of a significant part or even all of the funds. We will immediately warn you that there will be no loud revelations. Not all the troubles and losses in investments are deception of the broker. An investor can sometimes make mistakes himself, be led by fabulous promises, make rash decisions."He who is warned is armed" - it is important for an investor to know about all the nuances, since mistakes in investing can cost too much.Forex brokersMost often, well-known fraud schemes are associated with the Forex market. In general, Forex is an over-the-counter interbank foreign exchange market. That is, in principle, individuals cannot be participants in this market. However, there are a huge number of offers on the Internet to make money on Forex / Forex / FX, and so on. At the same time, such earnings are positioned as investments, trading, and organizers as brokers. However, such activities have nothing to do with investments. This is the market of derivative financial instruments - essentially a casino where bets are placed on changes in the exchange rate of a currency pair. And in the casino, as you know, the casino wins. No one brings these individuals to any foreign exchange market, and we are not talking about real currency trading. And, despite the fact that an article about Forex dealers appeared in the law "On the Securities Market" (they are dealers, not brokers), and the Regulator even issued licenses to several Forex dealers, this market has not become safe. The number of scammers is large, and the number of people who want to get rich here and now is no less. Clients are offered training. You can start trading with small amounts that allow you to win first. Appetites are growing, and so is leverage. Unlike a deposit and traditional investments in the stock market, such games really usually end with a loss of funds. If the client still wins, there may be problems with the withdrawal of funds, under various pretexts: for example, to additionally replenish the account to withdraw income, or to wait for some time. And they can withdraw funds in an unknown direction with the help of frankly fraudulent actions. The fantasies of scammers are limitless.Thus, real brokers have nothing to do with it, and forex games have nothing to do with real investments.Read more: Forex broker: how to choose a good brokerScam brokersThe securities market has its own schemes of deception, but they are all based on the same desire of the client to get rich quickly and easily, which scammers use with might and main. Customers are persistently lured by tens and hundreds of percent of profits, "super promotions", bonuses, cashbacks, exceptional offers, put pressure on the need to make decisions quickly, without giving time to think. An experienced investor will not be led to such offers, and an inexperienced one will be offered a consultant or mentor who will accompany his transactions. While the deposit is small, customers make a profit, and are more willing to invest more money. The "broker" is very attentive and usually aware of the financial situation of his client. Further, the options for the development of events may be different, depending on the credulity of the client and the imagination of scammers. For example, a consultant may inform you that a great deal is planned, offer to make a bigger deposit in order to break a big jackpot. And if the client no longer has his own money, he will offer a loan. Trusting clients allow the broker's employees to make transactions on their behalf without instructions from the client himself, issue a power of attorney to perform transactions on the brokerage account, provide access to the account (login, password). This is how deceived investors appear, whose assets are "merged" by a broker, or disappeared together with a personal manager. In this case, yes, the broker is a fraud, the only question is, was there a broker (a real, licensed bidder), and who and why gave him a power of attorney, provided direct access to the account?Each broker may well have its own trading platform, and this is normal. However, not all platforms are certified. Fraudulent brokers can install special programs on them that ensure price slippage, delay execution of orders, limit the client's profitability when trading derivatives, fake price charts, and other tricks that are not always noticeable to the client, but are very reflected in the state of his account. These schemes relate more to trading, rather than long-term investment, but you need to know about them in order to understand how important it is to choose the right broker.Chargeback - challenging the transaction. When the client realized that he was deceived, he can try to return the money from the false broker by contacting his bank. This complicated procedure exists, but no one will give guarantees, and it will most likely not work to return the money. The recipient and the broker may be completely different persons, the recipient may have disappeared altogether, or the client transferred money to an individual on the card, or the client does not have enough documentary evidence, and the bank is not eager to bother, some employees may not even know about the possibility of such a procedure. However, there are companies that offer money-back services from "black" brokers. If they promise a 100% guarantee and require prepayment, it is likely that the client will fall for the bait of scammers a second time.Read more: Stock market Broker: how to choose it and how to work with itClone sitesClone sites that completely duplicate the interface of the original site. The difference may be in just one sign in the address bar. The site may contain all the necessary information and documentation - information about the organization and license, only fake. Such sites belong to scammers, and the money transferred using such sites, the details specified there, will go to the scammers, and not to the client's brokerage account.Overnight on the broker accountOvernight is a loan of securities that the broker, with the consent of the client, takes from his brokerage account for his short-term transactions between trading sessions at night or on weekends and undertakes to return before the start of the trading session. Remuneration is paid to the client for overnight transactions. At the same time, the client himself allows the broker to perform such operations with his securities, sometimes without even suspecting it. This item can be included by default in the brokerage agreement. Of course, this cannot be called fraud, unless this clause of the contract is deliberately hidden from the client. But this is an additional risk for the investor. After all, in the event of a sharp jump in the prices of borrowed assets, a situation may arise when the broker will not be able to redeem and return the securities to the client. And as you know, assets on brokerage accounts are not insured. Therefore, in this case, it is up to the client to decide whether to allow the broker to make overnight transactions.Increased broker feesBrokers charge clients a commission for their services, as well as for the services of the depository. The commission amount differs from broker to broker and depends on the selected tariff. The rates may differ significantly from each other and are targeted at different categories of customers. Someone performs ten operations per quarter or per year, and someone per hour. Someone needs access to foreign exchanges, someone does not. Someone is just starting his way as an investor and forms capital with small amounts, while someone is already operating with very significant amounts. The broker can also provide a personal consultant, trader or additional analytics. Obviously, the rates for different customers will differ. Imagine that a client with a small capital chose the tariff with the lowest transaction fee, but at the same time did not pay attention to the presence of a subscription fee on such a tariff. As a result, even if there are no transactions on the brokerage account, it will incur exorbitant maintenance costs. Or an active trader client will choose a tariff without a subscription fee, but with a commission for transactions, as for investors who make few transactions. Its maintenance costs will also be overstated.Read more: What is OvernightTwin tickersThere are companies with similar tickers on the stock exchange and there are cases when investors, either afraid of missing the moment and falling behind the trend, or simply out of ignorance or inattention, bought shares of another little-known company with a similar ticker instead of the shares of the desired company, accelerating the value of the latter to an incredible size. On the one hand, the situation is curious, but it can also become seriously unpleasant, depending on the size of the transaction and the consequences. Here are some examples:APLE and AAPL: real estate investment fund REIT (Apple Hospitality Reit) and the well-known "apple" (APPLE). As a result of confusion, you can become the owner of such different assets:ZOOM and ZM: In April 2020, investors mixed up the tickers and instead of shares of ZOOM VIDEO COMMUNICATIONS (ZM - developer of video conferencing service) bought shares of ZOOM TECHNOLOGIES (ZOOM is a supplier of wireless communication equipment, currently ticker ZTNO), as a result of which the price of the latter soared by almost 800%, but not for long.TLSA and TSLA: These twin tickers also represent very different companies. The well-known technology giant TESLA and the company from the biotechnology industry Tiziana Life Sciences.In this case, of course, there is no deception, this is the mistake of the investor himself. Such a mistake can end up being expensive. Therefore, when applying for the purchase of an asset, the investor should be very careful.Read more: Practical advices on choosing a Forex broker for a beginnerMargin tradingMargin transactions are transactions with leverage, on borrowed funds provided by the broker. If successful, such transactions can bring multiple profits. However, you need to understand that if an investor makes a mistake in his calculations and strategy, then losses can reset the investor's capital. Therefore, before entering into such transactions, you should evaluate your capabilities, strategy and risks well. As Warren Buffett said, "If you combine ignorance and credit, you will get very interesting results," and it is unlikely that he meant fabulous profits. If the possibility of margin lending is not disabled in the settings of the trading program, the investor may accidentally open such a deal without even knowing about it. And this, too, is no longer a broker's fraud, but an investor's own mistake. The broker offers opportunities, and it's up to the client to decide whether to take advantage of such opportunities or not.Trading robotsTechnology is our everything. The robot is an automated trading program that connects to the interface of the broker's application or terminal and, according to a given algorithm, opens and closes transactions on the exchange, also analyzing the price movement of the instrument in accordance with the settings. Robots are more relevant for traders, not long-term investors. A trading robot is significantly faster than a human. Some robots can make up to 1000 trades per second. There is no fundamental analysis, emotions – only indicators, signals and an algorithm. The robot can trade 24/7 and monitor several instruments at the same time. This can greatly facilitate the trader's work, as well as his capital. Is the speed of trading and the number of applications so important?A trading robot can, of course, be used if a trader understands how it works, what settings and algorithms it has, regularly checks and adjusts it to the market. If not, then one day the algorithm can drain all the capital at its tremendous speed. Besides, if someone has created a robot that can make the owner rich in a short time, why would the developer sell it? After all, the more users of the robot, the less they earn. And which of the developers of trading robots is listed in the FORBES lists? And even if the developer really sold the robot with a profitable strategy that worked well in a certain market situation, the robot may not be adapted to another situation.Deciding whether or not to use a robot is also the prerogative of the investor himself, and if something goes wrong, there will be no one to blame.Read more: What are stock trading robots and how do they operateStock market manipulationManipulations on the stock market can be carried out with both stocks, derivatives, and cryptocurrencies. Individual market participants are accelerating asset quotes to sell them at the peak. Advertising, mailing lists, groups-communities of investors in social networks, including paid, fake news, insider information are in use. The object of manipulation is more often low-liquid assets of small capitalization, companies of the "last echelons" (2.3 levels of listing or unlisted list). There is usually little information on the financial condition of such companies. In the absence of market makers and regulators, lack of information, and given the low liquidity and value of the asset, it does not take a lot of money to pump up the price. Manipulation schemes are often based on trading features and traders' strategies.  As a result, manipulators earn money, and those who chased the hype and the crowd suffer losses. Manipulation is really fraud, for which a large fine or a real term can be threatened in America. Manipulations also happen in every country, mainly with third-tier stocks. They often end with a warning and a fine, however, in the case of a particularly large size or an organized group, criminal liability and imprisonment may also occur. Brokers, their employees, and other market participants may be involved in manipulations.How can an investor protect himself from fraud and mistakes1. Careful selection of a broker.The broker must have a brokerage license. It must be posted on the broker's website. You can check the license on the regulator's website. There are many other useful lists and registries on the same site: forex dealers, exchanges, trading systems, depositories, securities issuers and others:2. Really evaluate advertising promises and offers.Investing is always a risk. And the greater the expected profit, the higher the risk. No need to believe fabulous promises to get rich quickly, not troublesome, with a 100% guarantee. There are no guarantees in investments. Aggressive promising advertising, intrusive calls and "burning" super-offers should be treated with caution.3. Do not follow links from advertising offers in social networks and messengers.Perhaps the link will lead to a fraudulent site. It would not be superfluous to check whether the connection on the site is protected: the image of the lock at the beginning of the address bar.4. If you fall for the bait of scammers, you can contact the competent authorities about fraud, and your bank about the possibility of a chargeback. The probability of a refund is low, but there is a chance, and a considerable one, to fall into the trap of scammers for the second time, trying to carry out a chargeback with the help of intermediaries (perhaps the same ones who cheated the first time, but have already "retrained").5. Select the tariff deliberately in accordance with your portfolio and strategy.6. Disable overnight in the broker's application settings, for greater reliability, especially in a volatile crisis market.7. Disable the ability to make margin trades if the investor does not have sufficient knowledge and experience for margin trading. Everything can also be done in the broker's application or in the investor's personal account on the website.8. Carefully weigh whether it is worth using robot programs for trading and auto-research for investment. It may be much more effective for an investor to be trained to understand how to build and manage their investment portfolio. It is worth recalling Warren Buffett's quote again: "The risk comes from not knowing what you are doing."9. Carefully evaluate the asset before buying. What is the idea in this asset, what is its value and source of profit, does it correspond to the investor's strategy, is the price for the offered value adequate? Fundamental analysis will avoid manipulating asset prices and buying a dummy at a fabulous price. Also, preference should be given to highly liquid assets with large capitalization, which are difficult and expensive to manipulate.10. Invest in long-term debt. Traders are more susceptible to fraudulent manipulations, as they trade on news and price fluctuations. Technical analysis, signals, indicators, and often margin lending are the main tools of traders. And this is always a much greater risk than a reasonable investment in long-term investments based on fundamental analysis and diversification.11. Be a reasonable and cautious investor. Listen to official sources of information and make important decisions on your own, relying on your own knowledge, calculations and analysis. Do not follow other people's advice without passing them through the prism of your strategy. Do not give in to panic and hype. Do not forget that where there is money and the desire of people to get rich, there will definitely be scammers. Well, the most elementary thing: do not tell anyone your usernames / passwords. Law enforcement agencies and mass media regularly warn about possible fraudulent actions.Read more: What is Slippage in trading?ConclusionYou should not be afraid of cheating a broker if he meets the selection criteria: he has a license, a large number of active clients, large trading turnover, a certified trading platform, a convenient application, a tariff policy and a set of tools suitable for the investor, access to the trading platforms necessary for the investor, good customer service. You should be more afraid of your own rash actions, unjustified risk, lack of knowledge.As W. Buffett said, "The most important investment you can make is to invest in yourself." This is the safest investment and the most profitable. It is knowledge that will allow you to protect yourself from fraudsters and your own mistakes and self-deception.Learning is not scary, not difficult and cheaper than losing capital on scammers and your own mistakes. You can start with free information, which in our age of information technology has become more accessible to everyone than ever. However, it is worth filtering the information and checking its sources. You should trust only those who have achieved success themselves, invest their own funds, and were able to save and increase capital not only during periods when everything is growing in the market, but also during periods of corrections and crises.
Oct 19, 2022
IndexaCo
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The market is falling. What should investors do
The market is falling. What should investors do In 2022, there is a lot of talk about the crisis and recession. Everyone feels that something is wrong in the economy - the costs of habitual purchases have increased and, perhaps, what they have been saving for for a long time has become significantly more expensive. In addition, many economically active people are also private investors. Moreover, a significant increase in the number of investors occurred in the last 2 years, when deposit rates were not pleasing, and investments in the stock market showed impressive results. After the growth of stock markets in the post-crisis period, 2022 has become a real test for investors. First of all, for beginners who have just joined the ranks of investors. Pros could also face certain emotional difficulties.The stock market and the quotations of individual stocks can not only rise, but also fall. This is an axiom. Sometimes the drop can amount to tens or even hundreds of percent. Often investors do not understand what to do when quotes and the amount on the account "melts before our eyes". In this article, we, as practitioners whose investment portfolio has gone through a lot since 2015, but at the same time has shown and is showing decent results, will share our experience. We will tell you what is worth and what is not worth doing during the fall of the markets. Perhaps for someone these tips and recommendations will become a soothing pill when the first panic attacks appear.Calm, only calm!It is important to maintain psychological calm in a crisis, and it is doubly important for an investor – this will help avoid impulsive actions in the market, which you may regret later. There are a few simple rules that a reasonable investor should definitely not doDo not cook in the flow of negative newsIn the modern world, for most of us, the main source of news is the Internet. One has only to click on the title on a certain topic once, the search engine will immediately helpfully fill up the feed with such news. The most "clickable" news is negative, so it is not surprising that the reader of the news feed turns out to be an unwitting prisoner of the flow of negative information. The same principle works for the media – of all the events, journalists are more likely to talk about tragic ones or thicken the colors by placing the right accents. What can we say about the Internet or the philistine media, if even professional publications "sin" like this? You can even conduct an experiment by entering the query "crisis", "recession", "market collapse" and so on in the search engine. It turns out that everything will happen literally tomorrow, and you are not ready yet.It is important to understand that the objective picture of the world is often different from the one that is formed from the news. In addition, there are always more negative messages in a crisis, periods of falling markets, and due to the peculiarities of modern media, they usually fill the news feed. Do not read the news too often - it can cause constant background stress. Therefore, one of the important psychological qualities of an investor is to be able to emotionally distance himself from bad news and remain calm. It is a calm and balanced state that will help you not lose your way and follow the chosen investment strategy.Of course, it is impossible not to be interested in what is happening at all. Moreover, in the modern information world, important information obtained from reliable sources can help you make the right decision in time. Therefore, it is important to set up your sources of information in such a way as to weed out the unnecessary and not miss a really important event in the stream of momentary sensations.Do not look every hour at the changes in quotations, remember about long-term investmentOf course, an evergreen portfolio is fine. However, stocks cannot always show growth – their peculiarity is that they never grow in a straight line, although in the long term the market is always growing. The investor should be prepared for the fact that some stocks in the portfolio are growing, some are falling. In a crisis, all stocks can fall. But the stock market, like the economy, is cyclical: a crisis always gives way to a boom, and a period of growth is followed by a recession. If we choose fundamentally reliable assets in the portfolio and are confident in our choice, the momentary market conditions cannot plunge us into panic.If we look at the dynamics of the market over the past 30 years, we will see that there have been both corrections and collapses in history. The reasons and the depth of the fall were different, but what was the same was that any market decline ends, and recovery follows.Read more: Recession in the US in 2022Don't be afraid and don't panicThe stock market and the economy as a whole are developing cyclically. Periods of boom and recession have followed each other throughout the history of mankind. Of course, a lot of things collapse in a crisis, and even stable, well-developing companies may experience difficulties. However, you should not succumb to the influence of the crowd and panic, even if everyone around is just talking about the crisis. You will say it is very difficult. Indeed, it is not easy to resist when, for example, all stocks fall by 20 or 30 percent. The only thing that can be contrasted with emotions is reason. When a person reasons logically, emotions recede into the background.The Council. It is important to maintain the ability to reasonably assess what is happening. Knowledge of the basics of investing and financial literacy and the ability to apply them in practice will help to preserve the accumulated capital.Be critical of investment adviceWhat is most interesting, both experts and people who are far from investing can give advice. A separate category in the advice section is bloggers' advice. Currently, bloggers write and shoot videos about everything that subscribers read and watch, not counting explicit advertising. Investments are popular. Please, there are plenty of gurus on the Internet who give out content about investments every day. There are two main trends in the information flow of bloggers, which are better treated critically, especially in a crisis:1. It is profitable to invest - not for an ordinary person.Bloggers often write that only large investors can make good money on insiders and gray schemes at the expense of inexperienced "hamsters". What is the interest of such an author, it is clear – articles and videos with revelations always collect more views. And a novice investor wants to avoid mistakes. Someone has already burned themselves on financial pyramids and similar scams and is starting to look for what the catch might be in investing. Especially a lot of such "sensational" materials appear in times of crisis – everyone is worried about the future, and in a crisis it is as vague as ever. Therefore, bloggers write about conspiracy theories, subscribers are disappointed in the possibilities of the stock market, merge existing assets at any price and leave the market.The Council. If you sometimes find yourself reading another revealing article about conspiracy theories in the stock market, it is better to devote this time to learning the basics of investing. This is the only reasonable way out – it is fundamental knowledge that provides a solid foundation and helps to gain confidence in their actions. It is important to choose professional training in the basics of the stock market, investments and financial literacy, because there are also a lot of training offers.Read more: How to participate in an IPO2. The second topic frequently encountered by bloggers is tips on which securities to invest in.Such materials also collect a lot of views. Consulting an independent financial analyst is expensive, and bloggers give out advice for free – and the investor shifts responsibility for the final decision from his shoulders to the blogger. This is a common psychological trap of a novice investor: to look for someone who will confidently recommend what you can invest in profitably. Of course, bloggers argue their choice one way or another, without this, the recommendations would be completely unconvincing. In addition, it cannot be said that advice on the Internet is useless – perhaps there is a rational grain in them. But in order to separate really professional advice from populist statements for the sake of views and likes, it is necessary at least to understand the basics of investing. Today it is available to everyone. Moreover, investment literacy is currently a vital skill, as relevant as the ability to drive a car, for example. It is necessary to be clearly aware that only we ourselves are responsible for our investment decisions. The blogger got the right number of views – and has already earned. It does not matter to him whether those who used the voiced investment will eventually earn.The Council. It is necessary to develop at least a basic level of expertise in investments in order to be able to adequately perceive information flows from different sources. And of course, to minimize the flow of unprofessional information is not to read or watch bloggers who give out daily content for the spite of the day for the sake of views and likes.What not to do when markets fallAbove, we tried to understand what behavior in everyday life is best avoided by an investor in order to maintain calm and the ability to rationally treat a crisis situation. However, even if the above recommendations are followed, it is worth remembering that in no case should you do on the stock market in a crisis.Read more: How to make money in crisisDo not sell shares on emotionsWhen everything is falling, it may seem like a reasonable decision to save at least something and sell the shares right now. Objectively, this may mean fixing losses. Any investment decision should be balanced, and in a crisis – doubly so. It is important to conduct a fundamental analysis of the portfolio once again. If the company retains its potential and continues to develop even in a crisis, do not sell, but, if possible, average the position.Do not violate the rules of diversificationIn a crisis, even fundamentally attractive stocks can be very cheap. Investors are tempted to buy the paper they like for a large share in the portfolio. However, no one guarantees that the selected stock will recover or even increase in price, that the company will successfully cope with the crisis. In a period of uncertainty and high risks, it is more important than ever to diversify investments as much as possible so that the possible fall of one asset does not drag down the entire portfolio.We are talking more about stocks now - they attract everyone's attention in times of crisis. Of course, a balanced portfolio should also include bonds and, possibly, other financial instruments. You can read more about the diversification of the investment portfolio here.The same principle also applies to property as a whole: it is in a crisis that the temptation is great to shift capital into shares in the hope of profitably acquiring cheaper assets.Do not bring "last money" to the marketAll crises end sooner or later. However, this may not happen tomorrow or the day after tomorrow. In no case should you invest money in stocks that you may need in the near future, even if the price seems very attractive. Recovery after the crisis may take several years, and during this time the invested funds will be "frozen".Read more: Diversification of the investment portfolio: definition & methods of implementationDo not buy assets without fundamental analysisAs much as an inexperienced beginner wants to sell everything on a wave of panic, so much more sophisticated investor in a crisis wants to buy as many shares as possible at an attractive price. This is another extreme that can trap investors during a crisis. Of course, it is worth taking advantage of the opportunity to profitably acquire good assets, however, first of all it is necessary to adhere to the principles of reasonable investment. In times of crisis, fundamental analysis will help to protect against buying unreliable assets. It is important to analyze and understand whether the selected company will be able to survive the crisis, and only after that plan to buy shares.Do not expect that the market will grow tomorrowUncertainty at the moment is characteristic of the stock market as a whole – you can never predict for sure the further movement of quotations. In a crisis, the volatility of securities is even more unpredictable: when it seems that the bottom has been reached, the fall in stocks may continue (remember the well-known investor saying "To buy at the bottom - the second bottom as a gift"). Conversely, when an investor expects a further decline in prices, a market reversal may occur.Do not use margin dealsIn times of crisis, investors are tempted to bet on rapid growth or vice versa, on the continuation of the fall in quotations, and conduct transactions with leverage for a significant amount for the portfolio:borrow shares from a broker and sell them now (a "short" transaction) in the expectation that the price of the paper will fall further, and it will be possible to purchase it at a lower price and return it to the broker;borrow money from a broker and buy shares now (long or long position long sale) in the expectation that the price of the paper will rise, and it will be possible to get a positive difference after its sale.Leverage multiplies the result of the transaction - the investor can significantly increase profits or losses compared to the result that he could get from the transaction at his own expense. Of course, borrowed funds are provided by the broker at a certain percentage. Transactions with leverage are risky, they must be treated with the utmost care. Especially in a crisis, margin transactions can be a "disservice" to the investor. If the trend is guessed incorrectly, a large volume of margin transactions can lead to a margin call, that is, to the forced sale of assets by the broker to repay the debt on margin lending. The sale will be carried out at the market price at the time of sale, which may be unprofitable for the investor. Therefore, it is absolutely not necessary to use margin transactions in a crisis in the expectation that the market will grow or fall in the near future.Read more: Leverage on the stock marketConclusionIn this article, we have considered a few simple recommendations that will allow an investor to save capital in a crisis.To maintain emotional calm, you need:Do not cook in the flow of negative news.Do not look at the price changes every hour, remember about long-term investment.Be critical of investment advice.Don't be afraid and don't panic.There are also several principles of reasonable investment, which are especially relevant in a crisis:Do not sell shares on emotions.Do not violate the rules of diversification.Don't bring all the money to the market.Do not buy assets without fundamental analysis.Do not expect that the market will grow tomorrow.You can learn to be calm in a crisis situation, you can take financial literacy training and gain a certain level of expertise in investments. However, the stock market in a crisis is fraught with some temptations that can even encourage a relatively experienced investor to violate the basic principles of reasonable investment. Therefore, in order to preserve capital in turbulent times, it is necessary to strictly observe the principles given in the article. Only by understanding how to prevent the loss of existing wealth, you can move on to the next step – to increase capital.Read more: Basic knowledge of fundamental analysisAs you know, in a crisis, many assets are very cheap. Therefore, the famous phrase of Winston Churchill is the best fit for reasonable investors: "Never let a good crisis go to waste." However, the choice of reliable assets is a separate topic to which more than one article can be devoted. You can read a lot of articles or blogs about reasonable approaches in choosing reliable and promising securities, and it's better to see and hear.
Oct 18, 2022
IndexaCo
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