Coffee Trading forecasts and signals

EUR/USD: the market is considering easing the US tariff policyThe EUR/USD pair is correcting upward after testing support at 1.0221, seeking to gain a foothold in the 1.0302 area amid a review of US trade policy.The day before, US President Donald Trump unexpectedly softened his rhetoric regarding new duties: the initially announced 25% levy on goods from Canada and Mexico, which was supposed to take effect on February 4, was postponed for 30 days after talks with Mexican leader Claudia Sheinbaum and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. It is expected that during this time the parties will be able to reach a compromise. Against the background of this news, investors actively withdrew from risky assets at the beginning of Monday's trading, which led to a 1.46% decline in the euro, but later the quotes regained some of their losses, ending the day with a drop of only 0.18%. Postponing the introduction of trade barriers has increased demand for the European currency, but further risks remain. If the White House starts discussing similar tariffs on imports from the EU, the EUR/USD pair may not only update the January low at 1.0177, but also test parity.Resistance levels: 1.0510, 1.0630, 1.0820.Support levels: 1.0220, 1.0085, 1.0000.AUD/USD: Trump temporarily freezes increase in duties on Mexican importsThe Australian dollar holds its position in the AUD/USD pair, trading at 0.6199, remaining above the minimum values of last year. Despite the neutral reaction of the market to macroeconomic statistics, quotes remain stable against the background of adjustments in the positions of the US currency.After a significant strengthening at the beginning of the week, the US dollar fell back to Monday's levels, trading around 108.60 in the USDX index. This happened after the White House announced a temporary postponement of 25.0% of duties on Mexican goods, as the Mexican authorities agreed to increase the number of national guards on the border with the United States by 10.0 thousand people to combat illegal migration and drug trafficking. An additional factor influencing the dynamics of the pair will be the publication at 17:00 (GMT+2) of December statistics on the number of open vacancies in the US labor market (JOLTS). It is expected that the figure will decrease from 8.098 million to 8.010 million, which may increase pressure on the US currency.Resistance levels: 0.6260, 0.6400.Support levels: 0.6150, 0.6000.Silver market analysisDuring the morning trading on February 4, silver quotes showed mixed dynamics, holding near the $31.50 per ounce mark, which is close to two-month highs. The day before, silver prices showed rapid growth, which was the market's reaction to the publication of the results of the meeting of the US Federal Reserve System (Fed). The regulator kept the interest rate at 4.50%, emphasizing the desire to ensure maximum employment and reduce inflation to the target level of 2% in the long term. At the same time, the Committee on Open Market Operations (FOMC) is ready to adjust its approach to monetary policy depending on economic conditions.According to forecasts, the global silver market will remain in short supply in 2025. Total supply will increase by 3% to 1.05 billion ounces, reaching an 11-year high. Production will increase by 2% to 844 million ounces, which will be a seven-year high. Demand for silver will remain stable at 1.2 billion ounces, while industrial consumption will grow by 3% and exceed 700 million ounces for the first time. Physical investment in silver will also increase by 3% due to increased demand in Europe and North America. However, the demand for jewelry will decrease by 6%, mainly due to high prices in India.Resistance levels: 31.00, 31.30, 31.56, 32.00.Support levels: 30.77, 30.50, 30.25, 30.00.Coffee market analysisDuring the morning trading on February 4, coffee quotes show mixed dynamics. Arabica futures on the New York ICE Exchange have reached a new record, approaching $4 per pound, due to extremely limited supplies and concerns about future harvests. Earlier, on January 30, Arabica prices reached a historic high of $3,7685 per pound, which is 1.9% higher than the previous session.The situation on the coffee market remains tense due to adverse weather conditions in key producing countries. In Brazil, which provides almost half of the world's arabica production, the drought caused significant damage to last year's crop, resulting in a sharp reduction in certified arabica stocks by almost 100,000 bags, to about 900,000 bags. In addition, farmers in Vietnam, the largest producer of robusta, are holding back sales in anticipation of further price increases, which also helps to limit supply in the market.Experts note that Brazil's current buffer reserves have decreased to 500,000 bags (60 kg) against the traditional 8 million bags, which means that any additional weather disasters could have a significant impact on global coffee prices. Domestic coffee prices in Vietnam are also showing an increase. As of February 3, 2025, the average price was 130,600 VND per kilogram, which is 1,700 VND more than in the previous trading session.Resistance levels: 4.00, 4.10.Support levels: 3.70, ...

USD/CHF: the dollar continues to grow, approaching the peaks of NovemberDuring morning trading, the USD/CHF pair continues to build up the bullish momentum achieved last week, rising to a maximum on November 22 at 0.8955. However, market participants remain restrained, awaiting the outcome of the final meeting of the US Federal Reserve System this year, which will be held on Wednesday at 21:00 (GMT+2). Most analysts predict an interest rate cut of -25 basis points to 4.50%, which is already partially embedded in current quotes. The main focus will be on the regulator's forecasts for further changes in the cost of borrowing for the next three years, as well as on the uncertainty about the economic strategy of President-elect Donald Trump, who will take office on January 20.The Swiss National Bank (SNB) put additional pressure on the franc with its unexpected decision to lower the interest rate immediately by -50 basis points, to 0.50%, although the markets expected only -0.25%. In their statement, representatives of the regulator stressed their readiness to respond promptly to the economic situation in order to keep inflation within the target range. In addition, the SNB does not exclude the possibility of currency interventions to maintain the stability of the Swiss franc, which remains an attractive safe haven asset for investors. The updated forecasts suggest a slowdown in inflation to 1.1% in 2024 (1.2% was previously expected) and 0.3% in 2025 (against the previous 0.6%). The GDP growth rate has also been revised: this year the figure will be about 1.0%, and in 2025 it is expected in the range of 1.0–1.5%. Recent statistics put additional pressure on the franc: the consumer price index remained one of the lowest in the eurozone, having been fixed at 0.7% year-on-year in November. The producer and import price index showed a decrease from -0.3% to -0.6% on a monthly basis with a forecast of 0.2%, and the annual indicator changed from -1.8% to -1.5%. The focus of market participants remains the SNB's quarterly report for the fourth quarter, which will be published on Tuesday at 16:00 (GMT+2).Resistance levels: 0.8957, 0.9000, 0.9037, 0.9100.Support levels: 0.8929, 0.8900, 0.8865, 0.8827.USD/JPY: the pair is holding near the upper limit of the rangeThe USD/JPY pair is showing mixed trading, consolidating around 154.20, remaining at local highs from November 25. Buyer activity remains subdued amid expectations of the results of the US Federal Reserve meeting, which will be announced tomorrow at 21:00 (GMT+2). According to the FedWatch Tool of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut is estimated at 95.4%, despite the steady recovery of the American economy and inflation, which has stabilized at 3.0%. Additional attention of traders is attracted by the uncertainty of further actions of the Bank of Japan and the possible influence of the political agenda of the new American administration on them.Experts believe that if President-elect Donald Trump fulfills the promise of imposing 25% duties on Chinese imports, the Japanese financial authorities may respond by devaluing the yen to maintain export competitiveness. According to a Bloomberg study, 52% of analysts expect the Bank of Japan's hawkish rate to continue in January, while 44% predict an interest rate hike at the next meeting on December 19. Nevertheless, some economists believe that the regulator will maintain a wait-and-see position, focusing on the dynamics of wages, as the spring wage negotiations will show a clearer picture early next year. The published macroeconomic data from Japan strengthen expectations of a possible tightening of monetary policy. In October, orders for machinery products increased by 5.6% year-on-year after falling by 4.8% a month earlier, ahead of analysts' forecasts of 0.7%. On a monthly basis, the indicator increased by 2.1%, while an increase of 1.2% was expected. Also, the Jibun Bank manufacturing index from S&P Global strengthened from 50.5 to 51.4 points in December, and activity in the service sector showed an increase of 0.3% after a decline of 0.1%.Resistance levels: 154.50, 155.50, 156.50, 157.50.Support levels: 153.87, 153.27, 152.85, 151.50.Gold market analysisThe XAU/USD pair demonstrates multidirectional dynamics, consolidating around the 2655.00 mark. Trading activity remains restrained, as investors refrain from opening large positions in anticipation of the outcome of the US Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for tomorrow at 21:00 (GMT+2). Most experts predict a 25 basis point reduction in the interest rate to 4.50%, which is already reflected in current prices, so sharp fluctuations in the market in the event of such a decision are not expected. However, the attention of the participants will be focused on the updated long-term forecasts of the regulator on rates, especially given the possible strengthening of monetary policy rigidity due to new import duties proposed by President-elect Donald Trump.The day before, traders were evaluating December data on business activity in the United States. The S&P Global manufacturing sector index fell from 49.7 to 48.3 points, turning out to be worse than analysts' expectations of 49.4 points. At the same time, the indicator for the service sector increased from 56.1 to 58.5 points, significantly exceeding the forecast of 55.7 points, which led to the strengthening of the composite index from 54.9 to 56.6 points. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in December fell from 31.2 to 0.2 points, noticeably diverging from market expectations at 12.0 points. Today, investors will be watching the November data on retail sales and industrial production in the United States. Retail sales are forecast to accelerate growth from 0.4% to 0.5%, while industrial production may add 0.3% after falling 0.3% in October. These indicators may give the markets additional guidance on the further dynamics of gold before the key decisions of the Fed.Resistance levels: 2655.00, 2670.00, 2685.56, 2700.00.Support levels: 2643.41, 2630.00, 2613.50, 2600.00.Coffee market analysisDuring the morning trading session on Tuesday, December 17, Arabica coffee quotations on the New York ICE exchange traded at 159.2 cents per pound, showing a decrease of 0.65% compared to the previous session. Market pressure continues to be exerted by signals of a possible increase in supply amid improving weather conditions in Brazil and Colombia.The economic situation in Brazil remains the focus of traders' attention. According to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), the Arabica coffee harvest in 2024 may grow by 6.2% year-on-year to 41.6 million bags, due to an improvement in the precipitation situation in key regions. However, persistent inflation (the CPI consumer price index in November was 4.6% year-on-year against the forecast of 4.4%) and rising logistics costs continue to limit the volume of exports. In November, coffee exports from Brazil decreased by 8.9% compared to the same period last year, amounting to 3.2 million bags.The Colombian National Committee of Coffee Producers reported yesterday that production in November decreased by 3.5% due to prolonged rains and problems with the delivery of fertilizers. At the same time, demand for coffee remains stable: according to the International Coffee Organization (ICO), global coffee imports increased by 2.1% to 11.3 million bags in October, reflecting high purchase volumes from the United States and European Union countries. European traders are also optimistic about German retail sales data for November, which will be published this week, and may show an increase from 0.3% to 0.5%. Today at 17:00 (GMT+2), a report on coffee stocks in ICE exchange certification warehouses is expected: analysts expect a 1.4% reduction in stocks, which may become a supporting factor for prices. Tomorrow at 16:30 (GMT+2), a report from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) on forecasts of global coffee production and stocks for 2025 will be released.Resistance levels: 162.0, 164.5.Support levels: 158.0, ...

EUR/USD: slowing inflation has increased pressure on the euroThe EUR/USD pair is trading near the 1.0505 level in morning trading on December 12, showing a moderate decrease of 0.23% from the level of the previous session. The pressure on the European currency remains against the background of ambiguous macroeconomic data from the eurozone and expectations of further comments from the European Central Bank (ECB).Last week, preliminary GDP data for the third quarter were published in the eurozone. Growth was 0.1% on a quarterly basis, which coincided with analysts' expectations, but indicated a slowdown in growth compared with 0.2% in the second quarter. Also, the consumer price index (CPI) in November increased by 0.5% on a monthly basis and 2.4% on an annual basis, which is slightly higher than forecasts of 2.3%. However, Core inflation (Core CPI) slowed from 4.2% to 4.0%, indicating a weakening of inflationary pressures in the eurozone.In the eurozone labor market, the unemployment rate remained at 6.4% in October, which corresponds to historically low values, but the rate of employment growth slowed to 0.1%. The business activity index (PMI) in the services sector, published by S&P Global, amounted to 50.7 points, indicating the stagnation of the sector. Today at 12:00 (GMT+2), the index of business sentiment from the ZEW Institute will be published, where analysts expect a decrease from -5.0 to -7.3 points. Attention will also be focused on the ECB meeting on Thursday, December 14, where the policy on rates may be clarified.Resistance levels: 1.0800, 1.0850.GBP/USD: stability of consumer confidence constrains growthThe GBP/USD pair shows an upward trend, trading near the 1.2240 mark on Thursday, December 12. The exchange rate added 0.42% compared to the level of the previous session, due to the weakening of economic pressure on the pound against the background of published data.Thus, the index of business activity in the UK construction sector (PMI) rose to 52.6 points in November, exceeding analysts' expectations at 51.0 points. Similarly, retail sales in the country showed improvement, increasing by 1.2% on a monthly basis, which exceeded forecasts of 0.8%. Experts attribute the growth to a seasonal increase in demand and the adaptation of the market to current inflationary conditions. However, the GfK consumer confidence index remained unchanged at -28 points, indicating continued consumer caution.In addition, British Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt said that the government will continue to support small businesses in the face of high interest rates, emphasizing the importance of investments in infrastructure and education. At the upcoming meeting of the Bank of England on December 14, investors expect a decision on the key rate, the current level of which is 5.25%. Analysts predict that the rate will remain unchanged, which should stabilize the market. A report on changes in employment in the UK will be published today at 12:30 (GMT+2): analysts expect a decrease in the number of employed by 21.0 thousand, which may put pressure on the pound. In addition, at 16:00 (GMT+2), industrial production data for November will be released, with a projected decrease of 0.2%.Resistance levels: 1.2280, 1.2350.Silver market analysisDuring the Asian session on Thursday, December 12, silver quotations show an upward trend, trading around the level of 32.07 US dollars per troy ounce, which is 0.75% higher than the level of the previous session.The rise in silver prices is supported by the weakening of the US dollar and expectations of changes in the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System (Fed). Recent data showed a slowdown in inflation in the United States: the consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year in November, which is lower than the October figures of 0.3% and 3.5%, respectively. In addition, the unemployment rate remained at 3.8%, which is in line with analysts' expectations. In such circumstances, investors assume that the Fed may refrain from further raising interest rates in the near future, which puts pressure on the dollar and contributes to higher prices for precious metals.Industrial demand for silver is also influenced by the economic performance of China, one of the largest consumers of this metal. In November, the business activity index (PMI) in the Chinese manufacturing sector amounted to 50.5 points, exceeding analysts' forecasts of 50.2 points and the October figure of 50.1 points. The improvement in business activity in China contributes to an increase in demand for silver used in various industries, which supports the growth of its value.Resistance levels: 32.50, 33.00.Coffee market analysisDuring the morning trading session on Thursday, December 12, quotations of coffee (Arabica) on the New York ICE exchange showed growth, reaching 162.5 cents per pound, which is 0.88% higher than the closing level of the previous session. Investors are reacting to news about declining yields in major producing countries amid adverse weather conditions.Weather conditions in Brazil, the largest coffee producer, remain a key factor in supply pressures. According to the latest data, precipitation in key arabica growing regions has been 15-20% below normal over the past two months, which may reduce the total harvest by 7%. Additionally, experts note an increase in the cost of fertilizers and fuel, which increases the cost of production. In turn, November's export figures decreased by 12.4% year-on-year, to 2.67 million bags. The Brazilian Association of Coffee Exporters (CECAFE) predicts a further decline in exports in December due to logistical difficulties and limited stocks.Data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on global coffee production and stocks will be published today at 17:30 (GMT+2). Global production is expected to decrease by 4.7% to 167.2 million bags, which may support the current upward trend in the market. Inflation data in Brazil will also be released at 15:00 (GMT+2): analysts predict an increase from 4.8% to 5.1% year-on-year, which may affect coffee export prices.Resistance levels: 165.0, ...

EUR/JPY: The Bank of Japan maintains a soft policy amid lower inflationThe EUR/JPY pair is trading around 163.10 as of October 14, which is 0.01% higher compared to the previous trading session. After volatile fluctuations at the beginning of the week, the instrument showed stabilization as traders continue to monitor the economic data of the Eurozone and Japan, assessing the prospects for changes in monetary policy in both countries.In the Eurozone, the economic situation remains under pressure due to a combination of weak industrial growth and low inflation expectations. According to the latest data published by the German Federal Statistical Office, industrial production increased by 1.6% in August, which is higher than forecast and gives a positive signal to the markets. Nevertheless, economic activity in the euro area remains weak: preliminary inflation forecasts for October show a level of 2.2%, which is lower than the average values observed in the first half of the year. The European Central Bank (ECB) is under pressure to take additional stimulus measures, given that economic growth remains below expected. In September, the ECB announced its intention to keep interest rates at the current level to stimulate demand and investment, but analysts do not rule out further easing if inflation remains below the 2.0% target and GDP continues to grow weakly.In Japan, the Bank of Japan maintains a loose monetary policy, while continuing to use low interest rates to stimulate the economy. September data showed a decrease in inflation to 2.5% compared with 3.0% in August, indicating a slowdown in the growth of prices for goods and services. Although inflation in the country is still higher than in previous years, its decline eases the pressure on the central bank to change the current policy course. Japan's main macroeconomic indicators are showing stability, but economists are paying attention to a slowdown in economic activity, which may require additional stimulus measures from the Bank of Japan. Recently, the head of the Bank of Japan noted that the regulator will continue to monitor the situation and is ready to maintain a soft policy to prevent further slowdown in economic growth.Resistance levels: 164.00, 164.80.Support levels: 162.50, 161.90.GBP/NZD: pound is declining, waiting for further signals from the Bank of EnglandThe GBP/NZD pair is trading at 2.0495 as of October 14, showing a steady downward trend with a decrease of 0.23% from the previous session. The market is influenced by the strengthening of the New Zealand dollar, supported by New Zealand's domestic economic data, and expectations for easing UK monetary policy.The economic situation in the UK remains under pressure. The published data showed an increase in unemployment to 4.2%, which is slightly higher than market expectations. The consumer price index (CPI) remained at 6.7% in September, signaling continued pressure on inflation, which may require adjustments in the Bank of England's policy. However, the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, noted that further interest rate increases will depend on the data, and expressed caution about accelerating the tightening policy against the backdrop of an unstable economy. In turn, the indicator of business activity in the service sector (PMI) amounted to 49.3 points, which is lower than the level of the previous month (50.2 points), indicating a decrease in activity in the sector.In New Zealand, the index of business activity in construction increased by 2.1%, which is higher than forecast. The increase in activity is due to increased demand in the infrastructure construction sector, as well as improved performance in the agro-industrial complex. The Central Bank of New Zealand is expected to continue to maintain a steady interest rate as the country's inflation rate fell to 4.9% in annual terms. Against the background of these indicators, the position of the New Zealand dollar remains strong, which puts pressure on the GBP/NZD pair.Resistance levels: 2.0550, 2.0600.Support levels: 2.0450, 2.0400.Silver market analysisSilver (XAG/USD) is trading near the $23.40 level as of October 14, showing an upward trend of 0.42% above the previous session. Against the background of recent economic events, this growth reflects investors' interest in defensive assets, as financial markets are increasingly responding to macroeconomic uncertainty and currency market volatility.Economic and political factors affecting silver include significant support from growing industrial demand. An important driver is the development of green technologies and solar energy, which actively use silver in the production of panels and other components. According to experts, the demand for silver in these sectors has reached 1.2 billion ounces and is projected to continue to grow. In addition, the political situation in the United States and the ongoing discussion of changes in Federal Reserve interest rates have an impact on the dollar. In anticipation of a rate cut by the end of the year, investors view silver as a profitable hedge against inflationary risks and a possible weakening of the dollar.In the global perspective, the silver market is also influenced by other factors, including uncertainty in the mining sector. Leading producers such as Mexico and Peru are reporting lower production, which limits supply in the market. According to Citigroup estimates, under current conditions, silver prices could reach $30 per ounce in the second half of 2024. In addition, investors who pay attention to the ratio of gold and silver see potential for growth, as silver remains relatively undervalued compared to gold. In the coming months, it is expected that with an increase in demand for industrial silver and an improvement in market sentiment, silver will be able to approach the level of $30 per ounce.Resistance levels: $24.10, $25.00.Support levels: $22.80, $21.50.Coffee market analysisCoffee prices on October 14, 2024 stabilized around $ 182.40 per pound, which is 0.52% higher than the previous day. This growth is explained by global economic factors associated with a reduction in the supply of coffee on the world market. The main catalyst for the dynamics of coffee prices is a reduction in yields in key producing countries such as Brazil due to adverse weather conditions. In addition, logistical problems and rising transportation costs add pressure to prices.In Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer, harvest expectations remain below average due to the dry weather in September. According to the latest data, the arabica harvest for 2024 is expected to reach 52 million bags, which is 5% lower than the previous forecast. Moreover, prices for fertilizers and logistics have increased significantly, which further increases the cost of production. Against this background, the Central Bank of Brazil makes comments on inflationary pressures related to agriculture. Interest rates are expected to remain high until the end of the year, which will limit manufacturers' access to loans to expand their capacities.In the global economy, the impact of geopolitical events also has an impact on demand for commodities, including coffee. Increased political instability in the Middle East and trade disputes between China and the United States are contributing to increased uncertainty in financial markets, which affects the demand for coffee in importing countries such as the United States and European Union countries. Nevertheless, demand from China remains stable, as the popularity of coffee drinks among Chinese consumers continues to grow.Resistance levels: 185.00, 187.50.Support levels: 180.00, ...

EUR/CAD: the rate cut in Canada strengthened the position of the euroAs of August 22, 2024, the EUR/CAD currency pair is showing a steady upward trend, continuing to strengthen against the background of a weakening Canadian dollar and a moderately positive economic situation in the eurozone. The pair is trading around 1.5130 CAD, reflecting the strengthening of the euro against the background of the weakening of the Canadian currency.The economic situation in the eurozone looks stable, despite the continuing inflation risks. Recent data show that inflation in the euro area fell to 2.4% in March 2024, but core inflation remains at about 4%, which creates some pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) in terms of maintaining tight monetary policy. At the same time, economic activity in the service sector is showing signs of recovery, in contrast to manufacturing, which continues to stagnate. Economic growth in the eurozone is expected to resume at a moderate pace in the coming months.The Canadian dollar continues to be under pressure amid domestic economic problems. The recent interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada, linked to attempts to stimulate a slowing economy, has led to a weakening of the currency. Inflation expectations in Canada remain relatively stable, but slower growth and lower commodity prices, especially oil, have a negative impact on the currency. Technical analysis also indicates the predominance of bearish sentiment in the EUR/CAD pair, which is confirmed by oversold signals and the intersection of key resistance levels.Resistance levels: 1.5150, 1.5260.Support levels: 1.5070, 1.5000.AUD/CHF: Franc strengthening amid uncertainty in AustraliaAs of August 22, 2024, the AUD/CHF currency pair shows a weakening of the Australian dollar against the Swiss franc, trading around 0.5900 CHF. The pair is under pressure amid economic uncertainty in Australia and the strengthening of the Swiss franc.The economic situation in Australia remains difficult. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left the key rate at 4.35% at the last meeting, but risks of further rate hikes remain due to high inflation expectations. Despite a slight decrease in the quarterly inflation rate, the data did not meet market expectations, which increased pressure on AUD. The publication of business activity indices (PMI) also indicated a continued decline in activity in the manufacturing sector, which negatively affected the Australian dollar.The Swiss franc, on the contrary, remains stable due to the cautious monetary policy of the Swiss National Bank (SNB). The expected change of the head of the bank probably will not lead to significant policy changes, which supports investors' confidence in the stability of the franc. Additionally, the Swiss franc continues to win as a safe haven currency amid global economic uncertainty, which also supports its strengthening.Resistance levels: 0.5950, 0.6000.Support levels: 0.5850, 0.5800.GBP/NZD: the Bank of England's rate cut has increased pressure on the poundAs of Thursday, August 22, the GBP/NZD currency pair is trading around 2.0629 NZD, which is 0.03% lower compared to the previous trading session. The pair is showing a slight decline amid growing concerns about the prospects for the UK economy and the stabilization of the situation in New Zealand.The economic situation in the UK remains tense. At a recent meeting, the Bank of England decided to reduce the interest rate by 25 basis points to 5%, which was a response to a slowdown in growth and a decrease in inflation, which, according to the latest data, amounted to 5.31% year-on-year in August. Despite this, the market expects further rate cuts, which may weaken the pound's position in the coming months. The decline in business activity, especially in the manufacturing sector, is also putting pressure on the GBP.New Zealand, on the contrary, demonstrates resilience due to a stable economic situation and moderate inflation. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) left the key rate unchanged at 5.5%, which supports the exchange rate of the New Zealand dollar. Economic activity in the country remains stable despite global economic challenges. Moderate inflation and stable monetary policy of RBNZ support the New Zealand dollar, which allows it to strengthen its position against the British pound.Resistance levels: 2.0660, 2.0720.Support levels: 2.0580, 2.0520.Coffee market analysisAs of August 22, the price of coffee is showing steady growth against the background of global supply constraints and increasing demand, especially in Asian countries. At the moment, the price of coffee is trading around $2.15 per pound, which is 1.8% higher compared to the previous trading session. This growth is driven by a number of factors, including adverse weather conditions in key producing countries and the growing popularity of coffee in developing Asia.The economic situation in Brazil and Colombia, the two largest coffee producers, continues to have an impact on the market. In Brazil, drought and the spread of diseases such as coffee rust have reduced yields, resulting in a 5% decrease in supply compared to last year. In Colombia, political instability and economic difficulties have also led to a reduction in production, which puts pressure on world prices. These factors create tension in the market, which pushes prices up.At the same time, the growing demand for coffee in Asia, especially in countries such as China, India and Japan, continues to support high prices. Urbanization and the growth of the middle class are contributing to an increase in coffee consumption in the region. In China, the coffee market continues to grow at double-digit rates, and the number of cafes has increased by 58% over the past year, making it the largest market in terms of the number of points of sale in the world.Resistance levels: $2.20, $2.25.Support levels: $2.10, ...

EUR/USD: the stability of the dollar restrains the strengthening of the euroAs of August 19, 2024, the EUR/USD currency pair is trading near the level of 1.0905, showing weak dynamics against the background of conflicting economic data from the eurozone and the United States. The pair is under pressure, trying to overcome key resistance levels, but has not yet shown steady growth.The economic situation in the eurozone remains difficult. Recent data indicate a slowdown in economic growth in Germany and France, which raises concerns among investors. The eurozone's GDP is projected to grow by only 0.6% in 2024, which is lower than expected for the United States. The European Central Bank (ECB) is signaling a possible easing of monetary policy, which could lead to lower interest rates in the coming months. This pressure on the euro is due to the fact that inflation in the region is declining slowly, despite the targeted efforts of the central bank.On the other hand, the US economy is showing more steady growth. Although inflation is slowing, the labor market remains strong, which supports expectations for further tight policy by the Federal Reserve System (FRS). Despite the decline in GDP growth to 1.6%, the Fed still maintains its key rate at 5.25-5.50%, which makes the dollar more attractive to investors. This, in turn, puts pressure on the EUR/USD pair, limiting its growth opportunities.Resistance levels: 1.0940, 1.1000.Support levels: 1.0850, 1.0800.GBP/JPY: the pair is growing due to the stability of the pound and the weakness of the yenAs of August 19, 2024, the GBP/JPY currency pair is trading around the 188.50 mark, showing moderate strengthening. The pair is moving up after the publication of employment data in the UK and the continued weakness of the Japanese yen.The economic situation in the UK remains tense, although it shows some signs of stabilization. Recent data on the UK labor market showed a decrease in the unemployment rate, which caused cautious optimism among investors. At the same time, inflation in the country remained below forecasts, which may limit the Bank of England's ability to further raise interest rates. Nevertheless, the central bank continues to keep rates high to cope with inflationary risks, which supports the British pound.By contrast, the Japanese yen remains under pressure amid domestic economic problems. The Japanese economy is facing difficulties related to low domestic demand and a weak manufacturing sector. Despite the unexpected rate hike by the Bank of Japan at the beginning of the month, the yen continues to remain under pressure due to global uncertainty and economic weakness. This creates the prerequisites for further growth of the GBP/JPY pair.Resistance levels: 189.00, 190.50.Support levels: 187.50, 186.00.AUD/NZD: New Zealand dollar strengthens against the background of RBNZ's tough policyOn August 19, 2024, the AUD/NZD currency pair is trading at 1.1015, showing a moderate decline against the background of various economic factors in Australia and New Zealand. The pair is moving in a downtrend, which is associated with increased economic pressure on the Australian dollar.The economic situation in Australia remains tense. Recent inflation data show its growth above the expected level, which forces the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to consider further tightening of monetary policy. Despite this, weak domestic demand and low consumer confidence are putting pressure on the Australian dollar, limiting its potential for growth. Additionally, the slowdown in economic growth in China, which is Australia's key trading partner, also has a negative impact on AUD.On the other hand, the New Zealand dollar is strengthening thanks to the latest decisions of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), which kept the rate at 5.25% and expressed its intention to continue to maintain a tight monetary policy in the near future. Stable inflation and GDP growth indicators contribute to the strengthening of the NZD, making it more attractive to investors. The economic situation in New Zealand remains stable, despite the increase in the unemployment rate, which provides additional support to the New Zealand dollar.Resistance levels: 1.1050, 1.1100.Support levels: 1.0980, 1.0930.Coffee market overviewAs of August 19, 2024, coffee prices continue to fluctuate in a volatile market, reaching $2.15 per pound of Arabica. This movement is linked to a number of key factors, including global climatic conditions and economic changes in coffee-producing countries such as Brazil and Vietnam.The economic situation in Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer, has a significant impact on prices. The strengthening of the Brazilian real against the US dollar, observed in recent months, is contributing to an increase in coffee prices, as Brazilian exporters prefer to hold stocks in anticipation of more favorable conditions. In addition, unstable weather, including droughts and extreme temperatures, continues to negatively affect crops, further limiting supply on the global market.On the other hand, the demand for coffee remains steady, especially in the regions of Asia and Europe, where the popularity of organic and certified coffees continues to grow. This trend is supported by changes in consumer preferences towards more environmentally friendly products, which encourages manufacturers to invest in sustainable development and certification.Resistance levels: $2.20, $2.30.Support levels: $2.10, ...

GBP/JPY: the yen weakened due to the soft policy of the Bank of JapanAs of August 13, 2024, the GBP/JPY currency pair is showing steady growth, trading near the level of 189.27, which is 0.80% higher compared to the previous day. This movement is driven by several key factors, including economic and political developments in the UK and Japan.The economic and political situation in the UK continues to have a significant impact on the pound sterling (GBP). Yesterday's comments from representatives of the Bank of England (BoE) indicate continuing concerns about inflation, which supports expectations of further interest rate hikes. Additionally, the latest data on the UK economy, including a slowdown in GDP growth, are worrying against the background of a possible slowdown in the economy, but at the same time stimulate the BoE's caution in making rate decisions. This creates pressure on the pound, but continued optimism about its future strength supports it against the yen.On the Japanese side, the yen (JPY) continues to weaken due to the sustained soft monetary policy of the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Despite discussions on the possibility of adjusting interest rates, the BoJ continues to maintain ultra-low rates, which puts pressure on the yen. Additionally, the weakness of the Japanese economy, associated with low domestic demand and slowing exports, also contributes to the weakening of the JPY. As a result, traders prefer to sell the yen, which leads to an increase in the GBP/JPY pair.Resistance levels: 190.00, 191.50.Support levels: 188.00, 186.50.AUD/NZD: the pair is declining amid expectations of the RBNZ meetingAs of August 13, 2024, the AUD/NZD currency pair shows a slight decrease, trading around 1.0929, which is 0.05% lower compared to the previous close. The pair's move comes against the backdrop of the upcoming meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), which will be a key event this week.The economic situation in Australia remains difficult. Recent data on the consumer price index and retail sales indicate a slowdown in economic activity. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to take a cautious approach to changing interest rates, which puts pressure on the Australian dollar (AUD). It is expected that the published data on consumer confidence and wage growth will also not provide significant support for AUD, given the current economic conditions.On the other hand, the New Zealand dollar (NZD) remains under market scrutiny ahead of the RBNZ decision. At the moment, the central bank of New Zealand is likely to keep the interest rate at 5.5% for the ninth meeting in a row. However, the ongoing economic uncertainty and the risk of a possible rate cut in the future continue to have an impact on the NZD. Strong labor market indicators and stable inflation play into the hands of the New Zealand dollar, but the market is anxiously awaiting further steps by RBNZ.Resistance levels: 1.0975, 1.1028.Support levels: 1.0880, 1.0844.Platinum market analysisAs of August 13, 2024, the price of platinum continues to remain under pressure, trading around the $920 per ounce mark, which is close to the lows recorded since the beginning of April. The decline in platinum prices is due to several key factors, including a decrease in demand from the automotive industry and an increase in the volume of recycling of secondary raw materials.The economic situation in the world has a negative impact on the demand for platinum, especially in the automotive industry, which is the largest consumer of this metal. Slowing car sales amid global economic problems is reducing demand for platinum, despite stricter environmental regulations. Automakers are switching to using cheaper palladium to meet emissions requirements, which further reduces the need for platinum.In addition, there is a decrease in investor interest. In recent years, the volume of investments in platinum through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has decreased by more than 20%, due to rising interest rates and competition from other precious metals such as palladium and rhodium. The strengthening of the US dollar is also putting pressure on platinum prices, making it more expensive for foreign buyers.Resistance levels: $950, $1000.Support levels: $900, $880.Coffee market analysisAs of August 13, 2024, coffee prices continue to show increased volatility, trading around $2.33 per pound of Arabica, reflecting a 2.1% increase since the end of July. The main factors influencing the cost of coffee are weather conditions and changes in global supply.The economic situation in key producing countries such as Brazil and Vietnam has a significant impact on the market. In Brazil, the effects of the dry season in the Minas Gerais region are continuing, which has led to a decrease in crop forecasts for 2024/25. At the same time, Vietnam, the largest producer of robusta, is increasing production volumes, which may ease pressure on robusta prices, but continues to support Arabica prices. Despite the increase in supply, prices remain high due to concerns about the future harvest amid the continuing risk of climatic anomalies such as El Nino.On the other hand, the demand for coffee is also growing, especially against the background of the trend towards a healthy lifestyle and the preference for natural drinks among consumers. This supports a steady demand for Arabica, despite rising prices. However, a possible global economic downturn could weaken consumption and affect overall demand, which is also an important factor for future prices.Resistance levels: $2.40, $2.50.Support levels: $2.25, ...

GBP/CAD: stabilization of the Canadian dollar puts pressure on the poundThe GBP/CAD pair is correcting after a bearish start to the week, trading at 1.7520, updating the lows of the last few days.Despite recent attempts by the British pound to strengthen, the GBP/CAD pair continues to face pressure from the Canadian dollar. One of the key factors is the decision of the Bank of Canada to keep interest rates at the current level, which was perceived by markets as a signal of stabilization of the Canadian economy. This, in turn, supported the CAD's position against the background of the general weakness of the pound caused by uncertainty about the UK's economic prospects.In addition, despite the fact that inflation is rising in the UK, which usually supports the currency, the current economic situation remains difficult. Forecasts point to possible further fluctuations in the GBP/CAD pair, especially in the context of continued instability in the markets and expectations of possible adjustments in the policies of the central banks of both countries.Resistance levels: 1.7600, 1.7750.Support levels: 1.7400, 1.7250.AUD/JPY: geopolitical risks are holding back the pair's growthThe AUD/JPY pair is correcting after a volatile start to the week, trading near the 96.00 level.The Australian dollar strengthened thanks to the "hawkish" comments of the head of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Michelle Bullock, who announced her readiness to raise interest rates if necessary. This has become a key factor that has supported the growth of AUD/JPY over the past three days. However, the pair is having difficulty consolidating above the 96.00 level, as market participants remain cautious amid a possible slowdown in the US economy and geopolitical risks associated with conflicts in the Middle East and economic problems in China.On the other hand, the yen gained support after the Bank of Japan published the opinion of some members on the possibility of further rate hikes and normalization of monetary policy. This limits the growth potential of the AUD/JPY pair, adding to the general uncertainty in the market. In the near future, the focus of market participants will be on inflation data in China, which may have a significant impact on the dynamics of the AUD/JPY pair.Resistance levels: 96.50, 97.00.Support levels: 94.70, 94.00.Gold market analysisGold is correcting after a volatile start to the week, trading at $2,326 per ounce as of August 9, 2024. Despite the general increase in gold prices during the year, the current market situation remains unstable.The rise in US Treasury bond yields to 3.9% and the strengthening of the US dollar are putting pressure on gold. At the same time, concerns about a possible recession scenario in the United States after the publication of a weak labor market report increased demand for protective assets, including gold. However, analysts point out that the panic in the market may be somewhat exaggerated, and global demand for gold remains high due to ongoing geopolitical risks and the soft monetary policy of most central banks.Analysts predict that in the coming months gold will trade in the range of $2,300 - $2,400 per ounce, with key support levels at $2,345 and $2,330. In case of increased inflationary pressure or aggravation of geopolitical conflicts, further price increases to $2,500 per ounce are possible.Resistance levels: $2,400, $2,450.Support levels: $2,345, $2,330.Cocoa market analysisCocoa quotes are correcting after a volatile start to the week, trading at around $3,300 per tonne as of August 9, 2024. Despite the general increase in prices during the year, the cocoa market faced a number of challenges.Recent data indicate a significant decline in cocoa production in Ivory Coast, the largest producer of this raw material in the world. A 28% decrease in exports compared to the previous year caused prices to rise to multi-month highs at the beginning of the week. However, the latest reports from Cameroon, which showed an annual production growth of 1.2%, caused a sharp price correction down by 4.75%. In addition, global cocoa stocks continue to decline, which supports high prices against the background of an expected supply shortage until the end of 2024. This is also due to adverse weather conditions in West Africa, which may affect future harvests.Analysts predict that cocoa prices will remain volatile in the coming months. In case of further deterioration of weather conditions or political instability in the producing countries, prices may continue to rise. At the same time, any improvement in production and exports may trigger short-term downward corrections.Resistance levels: $3,350, $3,400.Support levels: $3,250, ...

Despite the fact that coffee is one of the most popular drinks in the world, it is not among the top investment tools, judging by the enthusiasm of investors. Compared to other commodities such as gold, silver and oil, coffee is not so popular. But people who invested in coffee in 2020 or earlier are now making a profit, as coffee prices reach their highest since 2015.Let's look at the coffee market to better understand the price dynamics and get an answer to the question whether it is worth buying coffee at current levels.Coffee as a financial instrumentInvestors can buy and sell coffee through the futures exchange. Coffee contracts are traded on the CME Group. Each futures contract is 37,500 pounds. Contracts are priced per pound. If coffee futures are traded at $100 per pound, then the full value of the contract is $37,500.Platforms where you can buy contracts for difference (CFDs) allow you to speculate on goods and other instruments. Instead of immediately buying expensive futures contracts, investors trade CFDs, the value of which rises or falls depending on the movement of the underlying asset. In our case, this is the price of coffee.CFD brokers offer leverage, so investors using leverage can buy more CFDs by investing less capital. It is necessary to remember that leverage can increase your losses if the market goes against you.There are two types of coffee: Robusta and Arabica. At the same time, Arabica coffee beans account for 75 percent of world production. Arabica is sold at a higher price compared to Robusta. Key coffee giants such as Kraft, Procter & Gamble, Nestle and Sara Lee, acquire almost half of all coffee produced for their own use.Coffee beans grow on small trees, and it is vital that they grow under optimal weather conditions. Bad weather can affect the entire global market.Brazil is one of the largest coffee producers, and under normal conditions produces almost 40% of the world's coffee. Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, Indonesia and Ethiopia account for about three-quarters of the world's coffee production.Read more: Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME): history, structure, advantages and featuresComparison: Arabica vs RobustaArabica    Higher acidityLower caffeine contentSweet and mild tastePronounced and fragrant notesRobustaLower acidityHigher caffeine contentStrong, rich and bitter tasteBurnt wood/rubber fragranceThe forecast of coffee prices depends on the drought in BrazilCoffee is not the only product whose price has increased significantly over the past year. News about coffee prices and analytics are not nearly as detailed as for gold or oil.Gold and oil have more noticeable growth catalysts, so it is easier for beginners to invest in them. For example, the growth potential of gold is based on concerns about inflation, and oil prices correlate with the results of OPEC+ meetings.Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their studySo, what determines the prospects and trends of coffee prices?Perhaps the most notable factor is the ongoing drought in Brazil. Reports of a devastating drought began to appear in the headlines at the end of 2020.The USDA said in a June 2021 report that global coffee production in 2021/22 is projected to decline by 11 million bags to 164.8 million, mainly due to weather conditions in Brazil.It seems that there is no solution to the problem of drought in Brazil in the near future. And this bodes well for the forecast of coffee prices until 2023.Commerzbank agricultural analyst, Dr. Mikaela Helbing-Kul, said that if the drought lasts until August, its consequences will also affect the harvest season of 2023.Nevertheless, traders and investors are wondering whether the recent surge in coffee prices is the result of the fact that the market has taken into account the drought factor, or whether it is still worth waiting for a bullish trend in prices.Read more: How to determine the beginning of the movement of the "bull" market?Coffee price forecast: assessment of key levelsCoffee in July was trading around 154 USD per pound. Key Support and Resistance levels for Coffee:Support:128 USD - minimum on April 16137 USD - minimum on May 3145 USD - minimum on May 24Resistance:165 USD - June 1 maximum182 USD - the maximum of 2015200 USD is a psychologically important levelThis does not mean that coffee prices will not be able to exceed these levels. In fact, coffee was trading below 100 USD per pound in 2020 and above 300 ISD per pound in 2011. Looking even further, the last time coffee prices traded above $300 was in 1997.Although it can be difficult to make a forecast of coffee prices for a couple of years ahead, since it depends too much on weather trends, it is a little easier to assess the short-term trend.And a short-term rally first formed on the charts in July 2020, when the price of coffee exceeded the 20-day moving average. The charts show that coffee broke up its moving average in April 2021 at about 130 USD, and then the momentum helped it to exceed 160 USD.The price of coffee very quickly reached a maximum of 165 USD on June 1, 2021, a level not seen since October 2016, and continued to trade below the moving average, where it was at the beginning of July. This in itself signals a bearish mood on coffee prices, but it is necessary to analyze other indicators before making any conclusions.Coffee, D What's next with the forecast of coffee prices?The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recently reached overbought territory three times, the last time around April. At the beginning of July, the RSI was around 50, this is the middle of the range, so it won't help us much.Investors have three options. Sell coffee, open a long position on coffee, or wait until the picture becomes clearer.The arguments in favor of selling coffee are based on the belief that the market has already taken into account the ongoing drought in the price, and the price decline from 165 USD to current levels is only the beginning of a long downward trend.In this case, investors should consider setting a stop loss above 165 USD, for example, at 170 USD. If the coffee successfully overcomes the resistance level of 165 USD, this may be a sign that selling is not the correct option.But the last few days have shown that buyers are trying to raise coffee prices significantly above the level of 150 USD. Combined with the fact that coffee prices are noticeably higher than they were at the end of 2020, we can assume that the rally still has prospects.In this case, a stop loss at the level of 145 or 137 USD is appropriate, since a drop below the support level indicates that there may be a rally.Read more: Bulls and bears, as well as other animals on the stock exchangeFrequently Asked QuestionsIs coffee a good investment?Although coffee is not included in the list of the 5 best-selling commodities, it can also open up attractive trading opportunities. Do your own research and think about trading coffee with contracts for difference. CFDs allow you to benefit from price fluctuations regardless of the direction of the market. Open a long position if you think that the price of coffee will go up, or a short position if you think that it will go down.Will the price of coffee increase in the future?Coffee prices rose sharply between the middle and the end of 2020, reaching a multi-year high of $165 in June 2021.What factors influence the price of coffee?Weather is one of the most important variables that affects the price of coffee. Other factors include rising demand worldwide. For example, the coffee chain giant Starbucks plans to add 20,000 new stores by 2030, bringing the total number of stores to 55,000 units. If the coffee chain succeeds in new markets, the price of coffee may ...