EUR/USD: the market is considering easing the US tariff policy
The EUR/USD pair is correcting upward after testing support at 1.0221, seeking to gain a foothold in the 1.0302 area amid a review of US trade policy.
The day before, US President Donald Trump unexpectedly softened his rhetoric regarding new duties: the initially announced 25% levy on goods from Canada and Mexico, which was supposed to take effect on February 4, was postponed for 30 days after talks with Mexican leader Claudia Sheinbaum and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. It is expected that during this time the parties will be able to reach a compromise. Against the background of this news, investors actively withdrew from risky assets at the beginning of Monday's trading, which led to a 1.46% decline in the euro, but later the quotes regained some of their losses, ending the day with a drop of only 0.18%. Postponing the introduction of trade barriers has increased demand for the European currency, but further risks remain. If the White House starts discussing similar tariffs on imports from the EU, the EUR/USD pair may not only update the January low at 1.0177, but also test parity.
- Resistance levels: 1.0510, 1.0630, 1.0820.
- Support levels: 1.0220, 1.0085, 1.0000.
AUD/USD: Trump temporarily freezes increase in duties on Mexican imports
The Australian dollar holds its position in the AUD/USD pair, trading at 0.6199, remaining above the minimum values of last year. Despite the neutral reaction of the market to macroeconomic statistics, quotes remain stable against the background of adjustments in the positions of the US currency.
After a significant strengthening at the beginning of the week, the US dollar fell back to Monday's levels, trading around 108.60 in the USDX index. This happened after the White House announced a temporary postponement of 25.0% of duties on Mexican goods, as the Mexican authorities agreed to increase the number of national guards on the border with the United States by 10.0 thousand people to combat illegal migration and drug trafficking. An additional factor influencing the dynamics of the pair will be the publication at 17:00 (GMT+2) of December statistics on the number of open vacancies in the US labor market (JOLTS). It is expected that the figure will decrease from 8.098 million to 8.010 million, which may increase pressure on the US currency.
- Resistance levels: 0.6260, 0.6400.
- Support levels: 0.6150, 0.6000.
Silver market analysis
During the morning trading on February 4, silver quotes showed mixed dynamics, holding near the $31.50 per ounce mark, which is close to two-month highs. The day before, silver prices showed rapid growth, which was the market's reaction to the publication of the results of the meeting of the US Federal Reserve System (Fed). The regulator kept the interest rate at 4.50%, emphasizing the desire to ensure maximum employment and reduce inflation to the target level of 2% in the long term. At the same time, the Committee on Open Market Operations (FOMC) is ready to adjust its approach to monetary policy depending on economic conditions.
According to forecasts, the global silver market will remain in short supply in 2025. Total supply will increase by 3% to 1.05 billion ounces, reaching an 11-year high. Production will increase by 2% to 844 million ounces, which will be a seven-year high. Demand for silver will remain stable at 1.2 billion ounces, while industrial consumption will grow by 3% and exceed 700 million ounces for the first time. Physical investment in silver will also increase by 3% due to increased demand in Europe and North America. However, the demand for jewelry will decrease by 6%, mainly due to high prices in India.
- Resistance levels: 31.00, 31.30, 31.56, 32.00.
- Support levels: 30.77, 30.50, 30.25, 30.00.
Coffee market analysis
During the morning trading on February 4, coffee quotes show mixed dynamics. Arabica futures on the New York ICE Exchange have reached a new record, approaching $4 per pound, due to extremely limited supplies and concerns about future harvests. Earlier, on January 30, Arabica prices reached a historic high of $3,7685 per pound, which is 1.9% higher than the previous session.
The situation on the coffee market remains tense due to adverse weather conditions in key producing countries. In Brazil, which provides almost half of the world's arabica production, the drought caused significant damage to last year's crop, resulting in a sharp reduction in certified arabica stocks by almost 100,000 bags, to about 900,000 bags. In addition, farmers in Vietnam, the largest producer of robusta, are holding back sales in anticipation of further price increases, which also helps to limit supply in the market.
Experts note that Brazil's current buffer reserves have decreased to 500,000 bags (60 kg) against the traditional 8 million bags, which means that any additional weather disasters could have a significant impact on global coffee prices. Domestic coffee prices in Vietnam are also showing an increase. As of February 3, 2025, the average price was 130,600 VND per kilogram, which is 1,700 VND more than in the previous trading session.
- Resistance levels: 4.00, 4.10.
- Support levels: 3.70, 3.60.