EURO STOXX 50 Trading forecasts and signals

Eurozone: Focus on inflation in GermanyToday, the main focus of investors and analysts is on German inflation data for March, which anticipates the overall figures for the eurozone expected tomorrow.Earlier, inflation in France and Spain was below forecasts, which is a positive signal for the European Central Bank (ECB). It will be important to see if the same trend is reflected in Germany.According to forecasts, the eurozone HICP index will decrease from 2.3% YoY to 2.1% YoY, mainly due to lower inflation in the energy and services sectors.China: Caixin Manufacturing PMI – is growth possible?In China, the Industrial Business Activity Index (Caixin PMI) is expected to be published today. The consensus forecast assumes a slight decrease from 50.8 to 50.6, but there is a possibility of strengthening the result. This is due to improved data on other indicators, such as the Yicai index and rising metal prices in March.Denmark: Correction of GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2024Revised Danish GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2024 will be published today. The preliminary report showed solid economic growth of 1.6% QoQ. However, quick estimates are always accompanied by a high degree of uncertainty, so it is important to understand how significant the possible adjustments will be.Sweden: Completion of wage negotiationsMajor industry salary negotiations are due to expire in Sweden today, which creates additional pressure on the negotiating parties. Initially, it was proposed to conclude a three-year agreement at the level of 7.7%, which is lower than expected and may indicate the risks of a downward revision of wage forecasts.Australia: Reserve Bank to keep interest rate at 4.10%The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to leave its key interest rate at 4.10% tomorrow morning, in line with market consensus. At the last meeting, the RBA began a cycle of rate cuts, but did not give clear signals of further easing. Currently, the markets forecast 2-3 rate cuts in 2025, but the probability of maintaining the current level tomorrow is estimated at 90%.Japan: Expectations for the Tankan report and the policy of the Bank of JapanTonight, the Bank of Japan will publish the quarterly Tankan business survey. The PMI indexes indicate steady growth in the first quarter, but the significant decline in March raises questions. The Tankan data is particularly important in the context of the Bank of Japan's future policy: positive results may strengthen expectations for further rate hikes. The spring wage negotiations also confirm the trend towards tightening monetary policy.Main focus of the week: trade duties and their impactThis week, the markets are monitoring the development of the situation around tariffs, especially from the United States. New widespread tariffs are expected to be announced on Wednesday, as well as possible retaliatory measures from other countries. At night, information was received that the United States could impose restrictions against "all countries," which contradicts earlier statements. In addition, the possibility of new sanctions against Russian oil buyers is being discussed.The final event of the week will be the US employment report for March, which is scheduled to be published on Friday.Macroeconomic events and market newsUSA: The core PCE index for February rose by 0.4% mom (consensus: 0.3% mom), which is higher than expected. At the same time, the overall PCE index showed an increase of 0.3% mom, in line with forecasts. The real volume of consumer spending increased by only 0.1% mom, which indicates a restrained mood among consumers.China: The official composite PMI rose to 51.4 in March from 51.1 in February. The index in the non–manufacturing sector rose to 50.8 (from 50.4), reflecting a recovery in the services sector, while the manufacturing PMI reached an annual maximum of 50.5.Norway: The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 2.0% in March, as predicted. The number of new vacancies decreased slightly, which may indicate a moderate weakening in demand for labor. At the same time, the growth of retail sales in the last three months (by 1.3%) confirms the positive trends in consumption.Japan: The minutes of the Bank of Japan's March meeting showed that participants recognize the importance of recent wage increases as a factor for further rate increases. However, concern was expressed about the weakness of investment among small and medium-sized enterprises, which casts doubt on the sustainability of current wage growth.Geopolitical factors: trade conflicts and sanctionsUS President Donald Trump expressed dissatisfaction with the position of Russian President Vladimir Putin and threatened to impose tariffs from 25% to 50% on imports from countries that buy Russian oil if Moscow does not take steps to resolve the conflict in Ukraine. This statement followed Putin's words about the legitimacy of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky. In the coming days, Trump is expected to have a telephone conversation with Putin, which may determine the further vector of the situation.Stock markets: going into defensive assetsGlobal stock indexes closed in the "red zone" on Friday as investors reduced their risk appetite ahead of the weekend.US index results on Friday:• Dow Jones: -1,7%• S&P 500: -2,0%• Nasdaq: -2,7%• Russell 2000: -2,1%The negative sentiment continues in Asia, where the Japanese yen acts as a defensive asset. The Japanese Nikkei index has declined by more than 4% at the time of writing, and the exchanges of exporting countries are also showing a significant drop.Stock index futures in Europe and the United States point to continued declines, along with falling yields at the long end of the U.S. Treasury bond curve.Dynamics of the currency and debt marketsU.S. government bonds ended last week higher as PCE data, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index and threats of new tariffs from Trump sparked caution in the markets. Stocks in the United States have fallen sharply, especially in the technology sector.Currency movements• The JPY strengthened against the major G10 currencies• EUR/USD rose above 1.1080• EUR/NOK rose to 11.35• EUR/SEK ended the week at 11.84This week, the key factor remains the issue of new tariffs, which will determine the dynamics of global ...

Today, the key event in the financial markets will be the publication of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February. According to forecasts, the overall CPI index grew by 0.2% on a monthly basis (against 0.5% in January) and amounted to 2.8% year-on-year (against 3.0% previously). The core CPI index is expected to reach 0.3% mom and 3.2% YoY.Markets are closely following the report after the unexpectedly high January reading. An important question remains whether this was a temporary effect related to the revision of prices at the beginning of the year, or whether it indicates continued inflationary pressures.The Bank of Canada (BoC) will also hold a meeting today, at which the interest rate is expected to decrease by 25 bps to 2.75%. This step is aimed at protecting the Canadian economy from the effects of US tariffs. The market consensus is also leaning towards this decision, as the slowdown in the economy requires a more lenient monetary policy.Main newsJapan: wage growthMajor Japanese corporations, including Toyota, have agreed to fully meet the demands of trade unions for wage growth, which averaged 6.1%. This is the most significant growth in recent decades. Now investors' attention is shifting to small and medium–sized enterprises, which form the backbone of the Japanese economy - will they be able to afford similar increases?Strong wage growth supports domestic demand and strengthens the case for further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ).Ukraine and the USA: Truce and strategic agreementsThe US and Ukrainian delegations have completed negotiations, following which Kiev agreed to a 30-day truce mediated by Washington. In response, the United States will restore military assistance and resume intelligence sharing.The parties also reached an agreement on the development of Ukraine's critically important mineral resources, which could enhance the region's investment attractiveness. However, the final approval of the deal depends on Russia's reaction.USA: increase of tariffs on metalOn March 1, 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports came into force, which increases the risk of a recession in the United States. President Trump initially threatened to raise tariffs to 50% on imports from Canada, but then backed down when Ontario agreed to cancel retaliatory measures.This uncertainty caused sharp fluctuations in financial markets, which were already under pressure due to Washington's large-scale protectionist steps.US labor market dataJOLTs showed 7.74 million job openings in January, which is higher than expected (7.63 million). At the same time, the number of involuntary layoffs has decreased, which may have a positive impact on consumer confidence.However, the NFIB index, which measures the mood of small businesses, continued to fall for the third month in a row, reaching its lowest level since the beginning of the election campaign. This reflects the concern of entrepreneurs about tariff policy and possible cuts in government spending.Stock markets: continued declineUS stock indexes closed down again.• S&P 500 fell 0.8%, approaching the correction zone• Dow Jones lost 1.1%• Nasdaq declined by only 0.2%, while the Russell 2000 index even showed a slight increase (+0.2%)Defensive sectors, including healthcare and consumer goods, were under the most pressure, while cyclical assets showed less drawdown. European stocks also fell sharply (Stoxx 500 -1.7%), but the morning rise in futures indicates a possible rebound amid news of a truce in Ukraine.Bonds and the foreign exchange marketIn the foreign exchange market, the euro, the Swedish krona and the Norwegian krone became the growth leaders, while the Japanese yen weakened slightly.Yields continued to rise in the bond market:• The yield on 10-year German bonds increased by 6 bps, while 2-year bonds decreased by 2 bps.• In the US, 10-year Treasury bonds also rose by 6 bps, leading to increased rate volatilityThe spread between Italian and German bonds remained stable, indicating that there was no significant flight to safe haven assets.ResultsToday, markets are focused on US inflation data and the Bank of Canada's decision. Stock markets remain under pressure, but the morning rise in futures indicates a potential reversal. The foreign exchange market supports the euro and Scandinavian currencies, while American bonds remain highly ...

The Eurozone: investor sentiment and macroeconomic expectationsThe Sentix index, reflecting investor sentiment, will be published in the Eurozone today. It is important to understand whether the positive momentum of February has been maintained in March. This indicator can provide additional guidance for assessing the current dynamics of economic growth and investment activity in the region.A number of macroeconomic data is expected to be published in Sweden, including the cost of production index, household consumption, as well as data on industrial orders and turnover. These indicators will help to better assess the vector of development of the Swedish economy. However, special attention will be paid to the GDP indicator for January, although its predictive power relative to actual data remains low.In Norway, the market is following the February inflation. In January, core inflation unexpectedly rose to 2.8% YoY, mainly due to rising import prices. According to forecasts, core inflation could strengthen by 0.25% mom in February (seasonally adjusted data), which would leave annual growth at 2.9%. This is higher than Norges Bank's December forecast (2.7%), which may increase speculation about a possible slowdown in the disinflationary trend or even its reversal.During the week, the focus will be on the meeting of representatives of the United States and Ukraine on Tuesday, as well as possible news from Germany, where a large-scale fiscal package approved by the new government is being discussed.Overview of key eventsIn the United States, the February labor market report showed an expected increase in the number of jobs by 151 thousand (forecast: 160 thousand, previous value: 143 thousand). Despite the dismissal of 30,000 public sector employees and a decrease in migration inflows, this indicator remains stable. Unemployment increased to 4.1% in February from 4.0% in January, but so far it does not signal a recession or overheating of the economy.On the geopolitical front, Donald Trump announced the possibility of imposing new large-scale sanctions and tariffs against Russia in order to increase pressure on Moscow as part of the settlement of the conflict in Ukraine. A meeting between representatives of the United States and Ukraine is scheduled this week in Saudi Arabia, and it is expected that it will be more productive than Vladimir Zelensky's recent visit to Washington, which ended with the suspension of military assistance to Kiev.In the Eurozone, the final GDP data for the fourth quarter turned out to be higher than expected, with growth of 0.2% (previous reading: 0.1%). The GDP growth forecast for 2024 has also been revised from 0.9% to 1.2%, which is a positive signal for the region's economy.In China, the February consumer price index decreased by 0.7% YoY (forecast: -0.5%, previous value: +0.5%), which was the first decrease in 13 months. The main reasons were the early Lunar New Year celebrations and lower food prices. Further attention will be focused on assessing the effectiveness of Beijing's economic stimulus measures.In Denmark, industrial production fell by 11.9% in January (seasonally adjusted data). Even taking into account the traditional volatility of this indicator, this is a significant decrease. The pharmaceutical sector made the main contribution to the decline, but excluding pharmaceuticals, production still decreased by 7.7%.Stock markets: recovery or correction?US stock indexes ended Friday with gains after an unexpectedly strong employment report and moderately dovish comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. However, the weekly decline was significant. The S&P 500 lost 3.3%, while European markets declined 0.6%. The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 indexes reached a correction level relative to post-election highs, while the S&P 500 fell by 6% from its peak values.Over the past three weeks, there have been significant differences in the dynamics of various sectors and regions. In the United States, the banking sector, the automotive industry, and the consumer sector were the most affected, with declines of 5-10%. In Europe, despite the general decline in markets, the sectoral picture is different: the main losses were recorded in real estate (-8%) and consumer durable goods (-8%), while capital goods and raw materials companies showed an increase of 3-4%.Private investors were faster than professional investors in predicting a correction, as the AAII bulls and bears index went into negative territory at the beginning of the year. However, despite the deepening correction in the US stock markets, the index remains at historically low levels, and the Fear & Greed index has reached the "extreme fear" zone.The weekend brought "bearish" comments from Donald Trump, who said the US was expecting a "transition period" due to tariffs. Unlike in his first administration, when the stock market was an important indicator of politics, he now highlights the country's long-term strategic interests, which increases uncertainty for investors.Bond and currency markets: rising yields and a stronger dollarThe February employment report did not have a significant impact on the bond market, but yields rose by the weekend after Powell's statements, who noted that the US economy was "feeling fine" and the Fed was in no hurry to revise the rate. However, part of this movement was offset on Monday by a deterioration in global risk appetite and a decline in stock indexes.The US dollar has recovered some of the losses it suffered during the tumultuous past week. The EUR/USD exchange rate, which fell below 1.04 on Monday, reached 1.0889 on Friday, but then adjusted to 1.0835.In the Scandinavian currency market, SEK remains the strongest among the major currencies: EUR/SEK broke through the 11.00 mark and is trading around 10.90. At the same time, EUR/NOK continues to grow gradually, approaching 11.80.Thus, global markets continue to balance between the prospects of monetary policy, inflationary trends and geopolitical risks, which creates increased volatility of currency pairs and uncertainty in the short ...

A revised estimate of fourth-quarter GDP will be released in the United States this afternoon. Preliminary data showed a slowdown in economic growth to 2.3%, while private consumption remained steady. In addition, Fed representatives are expected to speak, including Hammack, Harker, Barkin and Schmid. Their statements may clarify the regulator's current position on future mitigation policy.In the euro area, investors are waiting for statistics on the growth of lending and money supply in January. These indicators play an important role in assessing the degree of rigidity of the ECB's monetary policy. The data may affect expectations regarding possible steps by the Central Bank in the coming months.The consumer price index in Spain will be published today, which will give a preliminary idea of the dynamics of inflation in the Eurozone before the release of general data on Monday. Inflation is projected to decrease due to falling energy prices and a slowdown in service price growth, which is due to the effect of last year's high base.Norges Bank will present the results of its survey on inflation expectations. Analysts assume that the projected inflation rate will continue to decline in both the short and long term. Important attention will also be paid to forecasts for wage growth in 2025-2026. In addition, the published employment data for January will help determine whether the December job losses were really a trend or temporary.An Economic Trend Indicator from the National Institute of Economic Research will be released in Sweden. Key attention will be paid to how companies plan to adjust prices, especially after the release of high data on the producer price index (PPI) and inflation. In addition, data on the trade balance and household lending are expected today.US trade policy remains one of the main factors of market uncertainty. Despite the previously announced dates for the introduction of tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico (March 4), the White House allowed them to be postponed to April 2. However, conflicting statements from officials leave the possibility that tariffs will take effect as early as next week. At the same time, Donald Trump again threatened to impose 25% duties on EU goods, including cars. In general, these statements confirm that tariff policy is being used as an instrument of pressure in negotiations.President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky said that the success of the mining deal with the United States will depend on the upcoming negotiations with Donald Trump. He stressed that the agreement is part of a broader cooperation with Washington and may be included in future security guarantees. In turn, Trump confirmed that Zelensky would arrive in the United States on Friday to sign the agreement, but noted that the United States does not plan to provide Ukraine with expanded security guarantees, placing this responsibility on Europe.The European Commission has presented the "Clean Industrial Deal" strategic plan aimed at stimulating economic growth and accelerating the decarbonization process. The program provides for increased investments in environmentally friendly technologies, lower energy costs and easier reporting for small and medium-sized businesses. However, no short-term impact on economic growth is expected, as no significant increase in government spending is envisaged under the program. The EU plans to raise 100 billion euros (about 0.6% of GDP), but it is still unclear where these funds will come from. Most of the financing is likely to be provided by private capital.The situation on the marketsStock indexesThe US stock markets showed mixed dynamics yesterday. The S&P 500 index ended the day unchanged, while the European Stoxx 600 rose 1%. Despite the new tariff threats, the US markets stopped a four-day decline. In general, there is a rotation of capital in favor of cyclical sectors, including technology, consumer goods and banks. Nvidia's report provided particularly strong support to the market, which exceeded profit and revenue expectations, dispelling concerns about overheating of the artificial intelligence market.Debt marketsYesterday, there was moderate demand for European debt securities amid concerns about a slowdown in economic growth in the United States. The yield on 10-year US bonds fell by 30 basis points, reaching 4.25%, while 10-year German bunds fell by only 10 bps. The yield difference between the US and Germany narrowed to 181 bps. In the evening, there were reports of a possible postponement of the increase in US tariffs until April, which also had an impact on the impact on the bond market.CurrenciesIn the foreign exchange market, the US dollar, the British pound and the Japanese yen strengthened. The Scandinavian currencies, as well as the Australian and New Zealand dollars, showed a weakening. The EUR/USD exchange rate was trading near 1.05, EUR/SEK rose above 11.15, and EUR/NOK - around ...

Today, investors are focused on the final publication of Eurozone inflation data for January. This report will allow us to assess in detail the factors that caused the price increase at the beginning of the year, among which there are probably temporary effects.The Ifo Business Climate index in Germany for February is also expected to be published. It will be interesting to compare it with the PMI data released on Friday, which showed a slight increase in the composite index, mainly due to an improvement in the weakened industrial sector.In the second half of the week, the market's attention will shift to February inflation data from Germany, Spain and Italy. There will also be reports on the dynamics of wages and credit growth in the eurozone.In the United States, the Fed's main inflation indicator, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE), is expected to be published on Friday. In addition, investors continue to monitor possible new tariff measures from the Donald Trump administration and geopolitical news.Results of the week: German elections and macroeconomic indicatorsThe markets reacted positively to the results of the German elections, which led to the formation of a two-party majority between the conservative CDU/CSU bloc and the Social Democrats (SPD). This will simplify the decision-making process compared to the previous government, which included three parties.Against the backdrop of the election, the euro strengthened by 0.6% in the Asian session, while DAX futures rose by 1.1%. Friedrich Merz, the CDU/CSU leader, is likely to become the new chancellor, as his party received 28.6% of the vote. The formation of a coalition may take from one to two months.The election also increased the likelihood of a reform of budget constraints in Germany, allowing for increased borrowing. However, the impact on defense spending and support for Ukraine remains questionable: the extreme parties (AfD and Leftist) won 34.3% of the vote and may block some key initiatives requiring two-thirds of the votes in parliament.Friday was full of February Business Activity Indices (PMI). In the Eurozone, the composite PMI turned out to be lower than expected (50.2 versus the forecast of 50.5), mainly due to a decrease in the service sector (50.7 versus the expected 51.5). The industrial sector, on the contrary, showed a slight improvement (47.3 versus 47.0).In the UK, the picture was mixed: the manufacturing PMI turned out to be weaker than expected (46.4 versus 48.5), while the services sector exceeded expectations (51.1 versus 50.8). This left the composite index virtually unchanged (50.5). Retail sales data was also published: January growth was 1.2% year-on-year, which turned out to be higher than forecast (0.6%). However, the revised data for December was lowered, which smoothed out the effect of the positive surprise.In the US, the PMI picture resembled the European one: the industrial index continued to grow (51.6 versus 51.5), but the service sector declined sharply (49.7 versus 53.0), reaching its lowest level since January 2023. The internal components of the report showed a decrease in inflationary pressure: the price index for services fell to its lowest level since May 2020, while employment declined in both sectors. At the same time, production price indices and the order-to-inventory ratio continued to grow. The overall report looks dovish in the context of the Fed's policy.The geopolitical situation and financial marketsFor the first time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced the possibility of resigning in order to achieve Ukraine's membership in NATO or long-term peace. This statement was made against the background of the truce negotiations in which the United States is involved in Saudi Arabia. At the same time, Zelensky rejected the Trump administration's demand to provide the United States with a share of mining revenues in Ukraine.In the stock markets, an attempt at growth gave way to a decline. Global indexes fell 1%, with the S&P 500 down 1.7% and the Russell 2000 index of small companies down 2.9%. European stocks, on the contrary, showed growth (Stoxx 600 +0.5%), which indicates a noticeable superiority of the region. Investors actively shifted into defensive assets, buying bonds and the utility sector, while technology and industrial companies came under pressure. Volatility (VIX index) rose above 18, the highest since early February.In the foreign exchange market, commodity currencies weakened, losing out to the Japanese yen, Swiss franc and US dollar as market sentiment worsened towards the end of the week. The euro gained support against the background of the election results in Germany.U.S. Treasury bond yields declined amid weak data and expectations that government spending cuts could slow the economy more than expected. The spread between 10-year Treasuries and German Bunds has narrowed, falling below 200 bps again. In Germany, the CDU/CSU victory, expected to be confirmed by the election results, creates the prerequisites for a coalition with the SPD and potentially a third party.Thus, the markets continue to search for a balance between economic data, political events and monetary policy ...

Today we want to look at predictions from a slightly different angle - who should we trust when it comes to predictions of the future? Who was right in their predictions for 2022 and who was totally wrong? Let's find out!Traditionally, let's start with Wall Street.What did the investment houses forecast for 2022?By the end of 2021, the value of the S&P500 index reached 4,800 points. The investment houses said the markets would continue to rise.The investment banks' forecasts for the S&P 500 index for 2022 were as follows:The index ended up down 1,000 points for the year, a drop of more than 20 per cent.Only two banks were "toxic" pessimists: Bank of America and Morgan Stanley.They did not guess the magnitude of the fall. But at least they pointed in a downward direction. Morgan Stanley was the closest to the truth out of all the investment houses.What is the outlook for banks in 2023?What is BANK OF AMERICA's forecast for 2023The main shock of 2023 is a recession. Bank of America strategists believe that for the US, the Eurozone and the UK a recession is "almost inevitable". The rest of the world, apart from China, will also weaken. In the US, the start of a "moderate recession" is expected in the first half of the year. However, as Bank of America writes, "there is a risk that it will start later". The bank strategists thus expect the first half of the year to be good for bond investments and the second half to be interesting for equities. However, this is as far as I understand, if the recession is not delayed, but starts in the first half of the year.With China it is different - it will wake up from covid hibernation. But very unevenly. Most restrictions will not be lifted until the second half of the year. Chinese equities are likely to strengthen.What about the S&P? Analysts at the bank expect it to end 2023 at 4,000. That is roughly where it is now...US rates are expected to fall by the end of 2023 - both two-year and ten-year treasuries should end the year at 3.25%. The industries which suffered from rising rates in 2022 could benefit in 2023.After a historically bad year for industrial metals in 2022, cyclical and long-term factors will lead to higher metals prices in 2023, with copper prices rising by around 20%!!!Oil, according to Bank of America estimates, will also remain high. Factors that will contribute to this: Russian sanctions (I wonder what they mean by "Russian sanctions" - sanctions against Russian oil or our retaliatory sanctions?), low oil reserves, China opening up and OPEC ready to cut production if demand weakens. The bottom line is that with all these factors, Brent crude will average $100/bbl during 2023 and rise to $110/bbl in the second half of the year.Long: 30-year Treasuries, Chinese stocks, gold and silver, bonds, US Small cap, European banks.Short: Dollar, US technology sector, private equity.What is MORGAN STANLEY's forecast for 2023So, the bank's strategists write: "The general consensus is that corporate profits will start to collapse in early 2023, followed by the stock market. But the economy has proved too resilient". So Morgan Stanley expects earnings to fall slowly - to spite the bears.In fact they repeat the forecast of Bank of America - they expect a delay in the start of the recession until the second half of the year.Attitudes towards mega-cap stocks are sceptical. Here's what they write: "At their peak in 2000, the 5 largest tech stocks accounted for 20% of the S&P500 index. These were Microsoft, Cisco Systems, Nokia, Intel and IBM. These same 5 stocks bottomed out 5 years later and already accounted for 5% of the index.At their peak in 2022, the top 5 companies accounted for 25% of the S&P500. Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Tesla. But are they heading towards 5% of the index now?"Markets underestimate the risk of recession, stocks could fall another 22%.By the end of 2023, expect the S&P 500 to be at 3900 - even lower than its current value.Like Bank of America, predict a rise in Chinese equities. Expect global GDP growth to slow in 2023 as central banks tighten inflationary pressures. The exception is China, where the spring 2023 opening should lead to a significant recovery in economic activity in H2 2023.What did the Wall Street Gurus predict for 2022?Many of them said a correction in the stock market was inevitable. But there were those who were wrong.For example, Buffett's associate Charlie Munger was betting on Alibaba. Those who followed Munger were clearly wrong.Ray Dalio also bet on China. He also advised to get rid of cache. Wrong too, in fact.On the other hand, his reasoning was quite lengthy, which is hard to pin down. For example, he did advise buying inflation-linked bonds.Larry Williams is another prediction outsider. He is a famous trader with 60 years of trading experience. He created a technical indicator, Williams %R, which is used to estimate the overbought and oversold state of the market. A cobbler without boots - he could not estimate the overbought market.Said that "All markets will rise and be higher than at the beginning of the year, but gold doesn't stand a chance".Who predicted the 2022 market?Jim Rogers predicted the problems of 2022Jim Rogers is Soros' former hedge fund partner Quantum. What did Rogers say?He said - verbatim - "something bad is going to happen, but I'm not selling anything yet".Rogers warned that the US market had actually been rising since 2009. It is the longest growth in US history. But the market can't grow forever, which means there must be a rate hike and a downturn in 2022.Silver, though, has been falling in value for most of the year... That said, it's unclear exactly when Rogers was going to buy silver... Perhaps in this first half of the year's downturn.In addition to silver, Jim recommended investing in agriculture. What does he predict for 2023?Recession, debt crisis, US-European disputes due to energy shortages. Rogers also does not believe in price ceilings and embargoes and believes that Europe will still continue to buy oil and gas from Russia - just in a grey area.Mark Mobius is another soothsayer of the yearPredicted cryptocurrencies falling in 2022, increased tensions between the US and China and lower markets in general"Expect the market to decline and don't panic," he saidHe also said that India would become the new China.Mark Mobius - worked for over 30 years at Franklin Templeton Investments, specialising in emerging markets - including Russia. He was even an independent director of LUKOIL. In 2018, he founded his own company.What does he predict for the year 2023A word on crypto. Bitcoin, according to Mobius, could collapse 40% to $10,000 in 2023."With higher interest rates, the appeal of owning or buying bitcoins or other cryptocurrencies becomes less attractive because simply owning the coin does not generate interest," Mobius said."Of course, there have been a few offers with interest rates of 5% or higher for crypto deposits, but many of these companies offering such rates have gone bankrupt in part because of FTX. As these losses grow, people are wary of holding cryptocurrency for the sake of interest."He is also an advocate of investing in India. He believes it is the Indian equity market that is most interesting in 2023.Who else has guessed?Saxo Bank with their crazy forecasts have hit the bullseye this year. Much of their shocking predictions have come true. They predicted a weakening of the ESG agenda, a drop in Facebook and other mammoth quotes, high inflation, weakening of ties between China and the US, and a new Cold War.We already talked about what they predicted for 2023 in one of the videos.The Rothschilds also got it right with their magazine The Economist. Remember the weird cover showing bitcoin and other assets falling down the rabbit hole. Now let's take a closer look at their ...

On July 21, the European Central Bank (ECB) at a regular meeting decided to raise the base interest rate and deposit rates by 0.5 percentage points instead of the expected 0.25 percentage points. This is the first interest rate increase in 11 years.In the accompanying commentary, the ECB explained this decision by revaluation of inflationary risks upward. In June, annual consumer price inflation in the eurozone rose by a record 8.6%.ECB President Christine Lagarde allowed subsequent rate hikes in the near future, noting that it will be gradual so as not to harm economic growth. At the same time, the ECB announced the launch of a new asset repurchase program that allows the regulator to buy bonds when signs of "financial fragmentation" appear, that is, a significant discrepancy in the value of bonds in different eurozone countries.At the September meeting, it is likely that if inflation continues to decline, the regulator will raise interest rates by 0.75 pp.It can be noted that the Fed and the Bank of England have been pursuing a policy of raising interest rates for a long time, but inflation has not significantly decreased in either the US or the UK, and the ECB is still going to continue the bond repurchase program, which also will not help much to tighten monetary policy in the eurozone. Inflation in Western countries no longer seems to be monetary in nature, but is mainly associated with an increase in energy prices. The EUR/USD pair is growing by only 0.06% today - the regulator's promises to tighten monetary policy do not inspire the market too ...

The US indices ended the session on July 6 in a slight plus. The S&P 500 gained 0.36%, closing at 3,845 points, the Nasdaq rose 0.35%, the Dow Jones rose 0.23%. Utility service providers (+1.01%) and healthcare sector companies (+0.88%) showed active growth. Energy companies looked worse than the market (-1.74%) against the background of a correction in oil quotes.Company newsRivian Automotive Inc. (RIVN: +10.42%) increased the production of electric vehicles by 72% QoQ, deliveries more than tripled. The company also stated that it is actively moving towards the previously stated goal of producing 25 thousand electric cars per year.GameStop (GME: -2.33%) plans to split equity securities in a 4:1 ratio on July 18, holders will receive dividends in the form of three additional shares.Israeli defense technology company Rada Electronics Industries (RADA: -14.16%) expects a 20.9% YoY decrease in revenue for the second quarter. This is almost a third lower than the consensus forecast and is due to a reduction in orders from the United States.We expectThe minutes of the June FOMC meeting again did not surprise investors. Fed officials remain "hawkish" in view of the need to reduce inflation expectations. The main scenario is an increase in the discount rate by 50 or 75 basis points in July. The final decision will depend on the dynamics of wages in the country and the value of the consumer price index for June. Wage growth may slow to 5.1% YoY, but inflation is expected to accelerate to 8.7% due to a jump in energy prices.The US labor market remains tense, which so far prevents a more significant slowdown in wage growth. Although representatives of large and medium-sized businesses are reducing hiring plans, the demand for labor in the United States is still almost twice the number of applicants, despite tightening financial conditions, and the level of layoffs remains at record lows. This serves as an additional argument for the Fed in favor of continuing the normalization of the PREP and the possible implementation of the "soft landing" scenario of the economy.It is noteworthy that inflation expectations embedded in the rate of break-even 5-year TIPS bonds decreased to 2.48%, returning to the level of October 2021, which, however, is largely due to investors' opinion that economic activity will slow down. The possibility of implementing such a scenario is confirmed by the shrinking spread between the yields of 10-year and 3-month bonds. This is traditionally one of the signals of a deterioration in the prospects for economic growth.The Asia-Pacific stock exchanges closed the trading session on July 7 in the green zone. Japan's Nikkei rose by 1.47%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 0.26%, China's CSI 300 rose by 0.44%. EuroStoxx 50 has been rising by 1.05% since the opening of trading.Brent crude futures are trading at $101 per barrel. The price of gold is $1,734 per troy ounce.In our opinion, the S&P 500 will hold the upcoming session in the range of 3790-3870 points.MacrostatisticsThe US trade balance data for May will be published today. The deficit is expected to decrease by 2.5% mom, to $84.8 billion.Sentiment IndexThe sentiment index remains at 29 points.Technical pictureDespite attempts to start a rebound, the S&P 500 continues to move within the downtrend. The RSI is held near the neutral zone, the MACD indicates the preservation of the dominant positions of the "bears". The nearest resistance is at the psychologically significant level of 3900 points. The closest support is still the level of 3660 points.In sightToday, after the closing of the main session, Levi Strauss & Co. (LEVI) will present the financial statements for the second fiscal quarter. The consensus assumes an increase in the clothing manufacturer's revenue by 12.3% QoQ, to $1,433, with adjusted earnings per share of $0.23, which is comparable to last year's result. Sales and inventories of the company's products, despite a gradual decline in consumer confidence, remain quite stable in nominal terms in difficult economic conditions. Recently, Bank of America named LEVI one of the best investments for the second half of the year among small and medium-cap companies. Levi Strauss & Co. recently unveiled its long-term strategic priorities and presented updated growth goals. For fiscal year 2022, the company forecasts revenue growth of 11-13% YoY, to $6.4–6.5 billion, with adjusted diluted earnings per share in the range of $1.50–1.56.Also today, the manufacturer of household chemicals and car maintenance products WD-40 Company (WDFC) will present quarterly reports. Consensus predicts the company's revenue growth by 4.7% QoQ, to $142 million, with a decrease in adjusted earnings per share by 15% YoY, to $1.3. Analysts have worsened forecasts after the update by the management of Hayden's for the current year due to unfavorable conditions in commodity prices and the strengthening of the US dollar. WDFC shares have been under pressure since February last year. At the same time, in parallel with the publication of the previous report, the company presented a long-term plan, which provides for an increase in revenue to $650-700 million with an average annual growth in the range of 5-11%, depending on the region of ...