EUR/USD: flat amid expectations of September inflation in the eurozoneThe EUR/USD pair is showing a recovery after yesterday's decline, when quotes updated local lows from September 24. At the moment, the pair is testing the 1.1140 level, trying to break it up, amid expectations of the publication of key macroeconomic data.Analysts' forecasts remain restrained: the index of business activity in the eurozone manufacturing sector from S&P Global is likely to remain at 44.8 points, and the German index may remain at 40.3 points. Inflation data for September is expected to be published at 11:00 (GMT+2). Annual price growth is projected to slow from 2.2% to 1.9%, while core inflation, excluding volatile components, is likely to remain at 2.8%. Falling inflation may become an additional argument in favor of easing the ECB's monetary policy, and it is predicted that the bank may reduce the interest rate by 0.25% next month. Previously, it was thought that the regulator would wait until December, but the latest data may accelerate its actions.Against the background of German data published yesterday, it became known that the consumer price index decreased from 1.9% to 1.6% in annual terms, and monthly inflation remained at 0.0%, which somewhat disappointed market expectations. At the same time, in the United States, the Chicago business activity index rose to 46.6 points, although it remained below 50, indicating a slowdown in growth.Resistance levels: 1.1150, 1.1200, 1.1243, 1.1300.Support levels: 1.1100, 1.1050, 1.1000, 1.0964.GBP/USD: the former head of the Bank of England pointed to the reason for the increase in inflationThe GBP/USD pair shows mixed dynamics, remaining near the 1.3375 mark. Despite the publication of important macroeconomic statistics from the UK and the USA, market activity remains subdued.Investors were closely watching the UK GDP data for the second quarter. In annual terms, the growth rate decreased from 0.9% to 0.7%, and the quarterly dynamics slowed from 0.6% to 0.5%. These weak indicators may prompt the Bank of England to further ease monetary policy, especially against the background of the fact that the US Federal Reserve already cut the rate by 50 basis points in September.Additional pressure on the pound was exerted by a drop in the retail price index of the British Consortium of Retailers (BRC), which fell by 0.6% in September after a previous decrease of 0.3%. Today, the attention of market participants will be focused on the release of data on business activity in the manufacturing sector from S&P Global, which is expected to amount to 51.5 points. Investors are also studying the statement of the former head of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, who stressed that the delay in tightening monetary policy contributed to a sharp increase in inflation in the country. However, in his opinion, the current situation has stabilized, which will allow controlling the growth of consumer prices in the future.Resistance levels: 1.3435, 1.3500, 1.3550, 1.3600.Support levels: 1.3340, 1.3300, 1.3250, 1.3200.AUD/NZD: Australian retail sales may strengthen the dollar's positionThe AUD/NZD pair is at 1.0938 as of the trading session on October 1. This reflects a slight decrease of about 0.32% compared to the previous session. Market participants expect that quotes will continue to fluctuate against the background of the publication of economic data from Australia and New Zealand.The situation in Australia continues to put pressure on the AUD rate. The recent statement of support for the economy of China, which is Australia's largest trading partner, had a positive impact on the Australian dollar. Nevertheless, despite a slight improvement in the Chinese Business Activity Index (PMI), the Chinese economy still faces slowdown risks, which may have a restraining effect on Australian exports. In the Australian domestic market, important data on retail sales and construction permits are expected to be released, which, according to forecasts, may indicate a slowdown in activity in these sectors. Retail sales data for September will be published in Australia today, October 1, at 11:30 (GMT+2). Economists forecast an increase of 0.3% compared to the previous month, which may reflect the sustainability of consumer spending, despite the recent increase in interest rates. At the same time, data on construction permits will be released, where a decrease of 2.5% on a monthly basis is expected, indicating a slowdown in activity in the construction industry.On the other hand, the New Zealand economy is showing mixed results. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has completed a cycle of rate hikes, leaving them at 5.5%. This has eased the pressure of inflation, but GDP growth remains low and recession risks persist. As a result, currency traders are considering lowering rates in the coming months, which could weaken the NZD. Nevertheless, interest in the New Zealand dollar remains on the background of its high interest rate and attractiveness to investors. Tomorrow, October 2, at 00:45 (GMT+2), New Zealand will publish the NZIER Business Confidence index for the third quarter of 2024. Analysts expect an improvement in the indicator after a significant decline in the previous quarter, which may indicate a recovery in business activity. Also at 04:00 (GMT+2), data on export and import prices will be released, which will give a more complete picture of the country's trade balance.Resistance levels: 1.0850, 1.0940.Support levels: 1.0800, 1.0720.Gold analysisGold is trading at $2,643.50 per ounce as of October 1, showing an increase of 0.36% compared to the previous session. The price of gold has stabilized in the range of 2624-2666 USD, continuing to hold positions due to continuing geopolitical risks and expectations of a softer monetary policy from the US Federal Reserve System (Fed). If the price overcomes the level of 2670 USD, it is possible to move to the level of 2700 USD, however, if it drops below 2623 USD, a rollback to 2600 USD is likely.The economic situation in the United States remains an important factor for gold prices. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 0.75–1% in 2024, which will make gold a more attractive asset for investors. The publication of the ISM manufacturing business activity index for September today at 18:00 (GMT+2) is expected to reach 47.6 points, which is below the threshold of 50, signaling a reduction in production activity. Additional attention will be paid to the data on the number of open vacancies (JOLTS), which will also be released at 18:00 and will amount to 7.64 million, which may have an impact on the dollar and, accordingly, on the dynamics of gold.Geopolitical risks continue to support gold prices. The intensification of the conflict in the Middle East, as well as strained relations between Russia and Western countries, create additional incentives for investors to choose gold as a safe asset. These events, together with changes in monetary policy and the weakening of the dollar, may continue to support the growth of gold prices in the coming months.Resistance levels: 2660, 2686, 2700.Support levels: 2623, 2600, ...
EUR/TRY: inflation in Turkey remains high, the lira is losing groundThe EUR/TRY pair is trading around 38.23 on the morning of September 25, showing an increase of 0.03% compared to the previous session. This is due to investors' expectations regarding the decisions of the European Central Bank and monetary policy in Turkey. The lira continues to be under pressure due to macroeconomic instability and high inflation in Turkey.The economic situation in Turkey remains difficult: inflation in the country slowed to 51.97% in August, but these are still high values that negatively affect consumer demand and overall economic activity. The Turkish Central Bank maintains a policy of tough rate hikes to combat inflation, which has led to an increase in the cost of borrowing to 30%. However, investors are still concerned about the prospects of a further slowdown in economic growth in the country.On the part of the eurozone, the continued weakening of economic activity is putting pressure on the euro. The business activity indices (PMI) for the eurozone showed values below 50 points (48.9), which indicates a decrease in activity in key sectors of the economy. Inflation also remains above target, which limits the European Central Bank's ability to quickly ease monetary policy.Resistance levels: 38.50, 38.75.Support levels: 37.85, 37.60.GBP/JPY: economic data from the UK and Japan are holding back growthThe GBP/JPY pair is trading at 183.75 on September 25, showing slight losses after a 2% increase in the previous three days. The current consolidation is related to expectations of important economic data from the UK and Japan. The pair declined by 0.12% compared to the last session, which is due to a correction after a recent rise.The economic situation in the UK remains ambiguous. The latest data on the labor market show a decrease in the number of vacancies, but the employment rate remains relatively stable. Inflation in the country is still above the target level of the Bank of England, which forces investors to take into account the likelihood of further tightening of monetary policy. In the latest report on the consumer price index (CPI), inflation reached 6.7%, which supports expectations of further rate increases.In Japan, the market remains under pressure due to the slowdown in the economy. The index of business activity in the service sector (PMI) fell to 50.5 points, indicating stagnation. At the same time, the Bank of Japan maintains extremely low interest rates to stimulate the economy, which makes the yen weaker against the pound. In addition, the market is awaiting a report on the consumer price index in Japan, which may have a further impact on the country's monetary policy.Resistance levels: 184.20, 185.00.Support levels: 182.50, 181.80.AUD/NZD: New Zealand dollar weakens amid slowing domestic demandThe AUD/NZD pair was trading around 1.0890 on the morning of September 25, showing an increase of 0.17% compared to the previous trading session. This growth was supported by the decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to leave interest rates at the current level, which strengthened the Australian dollar. Meanwhile, the weakness of the New Zealand economy and the expected decline in export demand due to domestic economic difficulties are putting pressure on the New Zealand dollar.The Australian economy continues to receive support from Chinese incentives. In particular, China's recent measures to reduce the reserve rate for banks by 0.50% have freed up about $142 billion for lending, which has led to increased demand for Australian goods such as iron ore and coal. This had a positive impact on the AUD rate. Moreover, the RBA hinted that a rate cut is unlikely in the near future, despite the slowdown in economic growth.On the other hand, the New Zealand economy is facing a slowdown in growth. Inflation in the country is expected to remain high despite measures to contain it, which puts pressure on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to take further action on rates. Moreover, the latest data on domestic demand in New Zealand also show a weakening, which contributes to the depreciation of the New Zealand dollar.Resistance levels: 1.0910, 1.0940.Support levels: 1.0850, 1.0820.Crude Oil market analysisAs of September 25, the price of WTI crude oil is trading at $81.46 per barrel, which shows a slight decrease of 0.24% compared to the previous trading session. This decrease is due to market adjustments after a sharp rise in prices in previous weeks amid expectations of supply cuts and uncertainty amid OPEC+ actions.The economic situation in the United States and China continues to have a significant impact on world oil prices. In the United States, the latest publication of data on oil reserves showed an increase, which led to a decrease in expectations about the shortage of supply in the market. Meanwhile, in China, a slowdown in economic growth is holding back demand for oil, despite government incentives. China's recent measures to reduce bank reserves to stimulate lending, including in the industrial sector, may temporarily support demand for commodities.In addition, market participants are closely monitoring the upcoming data on the personal consumer spending index (PCE) in the United States, which may have an impact on market sentiment and the future dynamics of the dollar, which, in turn, may affect oil prices. A stronger dollar usually puts pressure on commodity markets, making oil more expensive for foreign buyers.Resistance levels: $82.50 and $84.00.Support levels: $80.00 and ...
EUR/GBP: ECB has reduced all key interest ratesThe EUR/GBP pair is showing an uncertain decline, continuing to develop the downward trend that began to form the day before. The instrument is testing support at 0.8430, and traders are assessing the consequences of the decision of the European Central Bank (ECB) announced at yesterday's meeting.The ECB has decided to reduce the key interest rate by 60 basis points to 3.65%, while also reducing the refinancing rate and margin loans. This decision was expected and was due to a decrease in business activity in the region and a slowdown in consumer price growth. Despite this, inflation in the eurozone countries remains high, especially in the service sector, which led to a revision of the forecasts for core inflation for 2024 and 2025. In the updated forecasts, the economic growth rate was adjusted downward — from 0.9% to 0.8% this year and from 1.4% to 1.3% next year. However, disagreements remain within the ECB: Some officials advocate further rate cuts due to the slowdown in economic activity, while others urge caution for fear of renewed inflationary pressures.Meanwhile, British investors are analyzing possible steps by the Bank of England, although the likelihood of monetary policy easing at the next meeting looks insignificant after the recent 25 basis point rate cut. Economic activity in the UK remains weak — gross domestic product (GDP) showed zero growth in July for the second month in a row. Industrial production is also showing a decline: in annual terms, volumes decreased by 1.2%, and in monthly terms — by 0.8%. The country's manufacturing sectors are facing a more severe slowdown than expected, which raises additional concerns among analysts.Resistance levels: 0.8450, 0.8465, 0.8483, 0.8500.Support levels: 0.8430, 0.8410, 0.8391, 0.8370.USD/CHF: dollar lost ground after reaching local peaksThe USD/CHF pair shows a slight decrease, continuing to develop a weak "bearish" trend, which formed after the instrument rolled back from the local highs recorded on August 21. The pair is currently trading near the 0.8500 level, trying to break through this support downwards, in anticipation of the publication of important macroeconomic data that may affect further market dynamics.Today at 16:00 (GMT+2), the release of five-year inflation expectations and the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan is expected. Forecasts suggest that inflation expectations will remain at 3.0% or show a slight decrease, and consumer confidence is likely to increase to 68.0 points from the previous 67.9. These data are unlikely to have a strong impact on expectations for the upcoming Fed meeting scheduled for next week. Most analysts predict a 25 basis point reduction in the interest rate, although the probability of a more aggressive 50 basis point reduction is estimated at 20.0-25.0%. It is also expected that the Fed's accompanying statement may signal further rate cuts before the end of the year.Investors are also analyzing the results of the meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB), which took place the day before. The ECB has decided to reduce the interest rate by 60 basis points to 3.65%, and also allowed for the possibility of further changes in monetary policy before the end of the year. This decision may put pressure on the Swiss National Bank (SNB), which is likely to revise its monetary parameters at a meeting scheduled for September 26.Resistance levels: 0.8541, 0.8570, 0.8600, 0.8630.Support levels: 0.8500, 0.8450, 0.8400, 0.8365.USD/TRY: 15.0 thousand companies have closed in Turkey since JanuaryAfter three days of decline, which led to an update of the minimum of September 9, the USD/TRY pair began to recover and approached the level of 34.0000. However, market activity is noticeably decreasing amid expectations of a meeting of the US Federal Reserve System, where monetary policy issues will be discussed.At the same time, Turkish business is facing serious difficulties due to high inflation, which exceeded 75% at the beginning of the year, instability of the lira exchange rate, rising electricity prices and a decrease in export orders. In the first seven months of 2024, 15.0 thousand companies in Turkey reported closures, an increase of 28% compared to the same period last year. Markets hope for a stabilization of the situation by the end of the year, but the Central Bank of Turkey has kept the interest rate at 50% for more than five months. Although President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had previously expressed hope for inflation to fall below 50% in September, the latest report for August showed a slowdown in consumer price growth from 61.78% to 51.97%.Against this background, the international agency Fitch upgraded Turkey's credit rating from "B+" to "BB-", noting an improvement in foreign economic conditions and a reduction in foreign currency liabilities. At the same time, experts warn that premature easing of monetary policy may once again increase inflationary risks and pose a threat to macroeconomic stability and the balance of payments.Resistance levels: 34.0000, 34.0939, 34.2325, 34.3000.Support levels: 33.9022, 33.8000, 33.6722, 33.5450.AUD/NZD: New Zealand economic growth puts pressure on AUDAs of September 13, 2024, the AUD/NZD pair is trading near the level of 1.0869, showing slight fluctuations against the background of conflicting data from New Zealand and Australia. After several attempts to break through the support level at 1.0800, the pair shows a tendency to sideways movement, which is associated with instability in both economies.Economic data from New Zealand, such as strong growth in consumer spending and improved employment figures, support the New Zealand dollar. According to analysts, New Zealand's economic activity may grow by 1.1% in the third quarter, which is higher than expected for Australia, where economic growth is slowing. In turn, Australia is facing weakening demand for commodities and a decline in business activity. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently left the interest rate at 4.10%, which disappointed investors who expected more decisive steps to combat the slowdown in the economy.Experts note that, despite the short-term strength of the New Zealand dollar, a steady recovery in the Australian economy and a possible increase in RBA interest rates in the future may return the Australian dollar to a more confident position against the New Zealand dollar.Resistance levels: 1.0940, 1.1020.Support levels: 1.0800, ...
EUR/USD: the stability of the dollar restrains the strengthening of the euroAs of August 19, 2024, the EUR/USD currency pair is trading near the level of 1.0905, showing weak dynamics against the background of conflicting economic data from the eurozone and the United States. The pair is under pressure, trying to overcome key resistance levels, but has not yet shown steady growth.The economic situation in the eurozone remains difficult. Recent data indicate a slowdown in economic growth in Germany and France, which raises concerns among investors. The eurozone's GDP is projected to grow by only 0.6% in 2024, which is lower than expected for the United States. The European Central Bank (ECB) is signaling a possible easing of monetary policy, which could lead to lower interest rates in the coming months. This pressure on the euro is due to the fact that inflation in the region is declining slowly, despite the targeted efforts of the central bank.On the other hand, the US economy is showing more steady growth. Although inflation is slowing, the labor market remains strong, which supports expectations for further tight policy by the Federal Reserve System (FRS). Despite the decline in GDP growth to 1.6%, the Fed still maintains its key rate at 5.25-5.50%, which makes the dollar more attractive to investors. This, in turn, puts pressure on the EUR/USD pair, limiting its growth opportunities.Resistance levels: 1.0940, 1.1000.Support levels: 1.0850, 1.0800.GBP/JPY: the pair is growing due to the stability of the pound and the weakness of the yenAs of August 19, 2024, the GBP/JPY currency pair is trading around the 188.50 mark, showing moderate strengthening. The pair is moving up after the publication of employment data in the UK and the continued weakness of the Japanese yen.The economic situation in the UK remains tense, although it shows some signs of stabilization. Recent data on the UK labor market showed a decrease in the unemployment rate, which caused cautious optimism among investors. At the same time, inflation in the country remained below forecasts, which may limit the Bank of England's ability to further raise interest rates. Nevertheless, the central bank continues to keep rates high to cope with inflationary risks, which supports the British pound.By contrast, the Japanese yen remains under pressure amid domestic economic problems. The Japanese economy is facing difficulties related to low domestic demand and a weak manufacturing sector. Despite the unexpected rate hike by the Bank of Japan at the beginning of the month, the yen continues to remain under pressure due to global uncertainty and economic weakness. This creates the prerequisites for further growth of the GBP/JPY pair.Resistance levels: 189.00, 190.50.Support levels: 187.50, 186.00.AUD/NZD: New Zealand dollar strengthens against the background of RBNZ's tough policyOn August 19, 2024, the AUD/NZD currency pair is trading at 1.1015, showing a moderate decline against the background of various economic factors in Australia and New Zealand. The pair is moving in a downtrend, which is associated with increased economic pressure on the Australian dollar.The economic situation in Australia remains tense. Recent inflation data show its growth above the expected level, which forces the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to consider further tightening of monetary policy. Despite this, weak domestic demand and low consumer confidence are putting pressure on the Australian dollar, limiting its potential for growth. Additionally, the slowdown in economic growth in China, which is Australia's key trading partner, also has a negative impact on AUD.On the other hand, the New Zealand dollar is strengthening thanks to the latest decisions of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), which kept the rate at 5.25% and expressed its intention to continue to maintain a tight monetary policy in the near future. Stable inflation and GDP growth indicators contribute to the strengthening of the NZD, making it more attractive to investors. The economic situation in New Zealand remains stable, despite the increase in the unemployment rate, which provides additional support to the New Zealand dollar.Resistance levels: 1.1050, 1.1100.Support levels: 1.0980, 1.0930.Coffee market overviewAs of August 19, 2024, coffee prices continue to fluctuate in a volatile market, reaching $2.15 per pound of Arabica. This movement is linked to a number of key factors, including global climatic conditions and economic changes in coffee-producing countries such as Brazil and Vietnam.The economic situation in Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer, has a significant impact on prices. The strengthening of the Brazilian real against the US dollar, observed in recent months, is contributing to an increase in coffee prices, as Brazilian exporters prefer to hold stocks in anticipation of more favorable conditions. In addition, unstable weather, including droughts and extreme temperatures, continues to negatively affect crops, further limiting supply on the global market.On the other hand, the demand for coffee remains steady, especially in the regions of Asia and Europe, where the popularity of organic and certified coffees continues to grow. This trend is supported by changes in consumer preferences towards more environmentally friendly products, which encourages manufacturers to invest in sustainable development and certification.Resistance levels: $2.20, $2.30.Support levels: $2.10, ...
GBP/JPY: the yen weakened due to the soft policy of the Bank of JapanAs of August 13, 2024, the GBP/JPY currency pair is showing steady growth, trading near the level of 189.27, which is 0.80% higher compared to the previous day. This movement is driven by several key factors, including economic and political developments in the UK and Japan.The economic and political situation in the UK continues to have a significant impact on the pound sterling (GBP). Yesterday's comments from representatives of the Bank of England (BoE) indicate continuing concerns about inflation, which supports expectations of further interest rate hikes. Additionally, the latest data on the UK economy, including a slowdown in GDP growth, are worrying against the background of a possible slowdown in the economy, but at the same time stimulate the BoE's caution in making rate decisions. This creates pressure on the pound, but continued optimism about its future strength supports it against the yen.On the Japanese side, the yen (JPY) continues to weaken due to the sustained soft monetary policy of the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Despite discussions on the possibility of adjusting interest rates, the BoJ continues to maintain ultra-low rates, which puts pressure on the yen. Additionally, the weakness of the Japanese economy, associated with low domestic demand and slowing exports, also contributes to the weakening of the JPY. As a result, traders prefer to sell the yen, which leads to an increase in the GBP/JPY pair.Resistance levels: 190.00, 191.50.Support levels: 188.00, 186.50.AUD/NZD: the pair is declining amid expectations of the RBNZ meetingAs of August 13, 2024, the AUD/NZD currency pair shows a slight decrease, trading around 1.0929, which is 0.05% lower compared to the previous close. The pair's move comes against the backdrop of the upcoming meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), which will be a key event this week.The economic situation in Australia remains difficult. Recent data on the consumer price index and retail sales indicate a slowdown in economic activity. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to take a cautious approach to changing interest rates, which puts pressure on the Australian dollar (AUD). It is expected that the published data on consumer confidence and wage growth will also not provide significant support for AUD, given the current economic conditions.On the other hand, the New Zealand dollar (NZD) remains under market scrutiny ahead of the RBNZ decision. At the moment, the central bank of New Zealand is likely to keep the interest rate at 5.5% for the ninth meeting in a row. However, the ongoing economic uncertainty and the risk of a possible rate cut in the future continue to have an impact on the NZD. Strong labor market indicators and stable inflation play into the hands of the New Zealand dollar, but the market is anxiously awaiting further steps by RBNZ.Resistance levels: 1.0975, 1.1028.Support levels: 1.0880, 1.0844.Platinum market analysisAs of August 13, 2024, the price of platinum continues to remain under pressure, trading around the $920 per ounce mark, which is close to the lows recorded since the beginning of April. The decline in platinum prices is due to several key factors, including a decrease in demand from the automotive industry and an increase in the volume of recycling of secondary raw materials.The economic situation in the world has a negative impact on the demand for platinum, especially in the automotive industry, which is the largest consumer of this metal. Slowing car sales amid global economic problems is reducing demand for platinum, despite stricter environmental regulations. Automakers are switching to using cheaper palladium to meet emissions requirements, which further reduces the need for platinum.In addition, there is a decrease in investor interest. In recent years, the volume of investments in platinum through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has decreased by more than 20%, due to rising interest rates and competition from other precious metals such as palladium and rhodium. The strengthening of the US dollar is also putting pressure on platinum prices, making it more expensive for foreign buyers.Resistance levels: $950, $1000.Support levels: $900, $880.Coffee market analysisAs of August 13, 2024, coffee prices continue to show increased volatility, trading around $2.33 per pound of Arabica, reflecting a 2.1% increase since the end of July. The main factors influencing the cost of coffee are weather conditions and changes in global supply.The economic situation in key producing countries such as Brazil and Vietnam has a significant impact on the market. In Brazil, the effects of the dry season in the Minas Gerais region are continuing, which has led to a decrease in crop forecasts for 2024/25. At the same time, Vietnam, the largest producer of robusta, is increasing production volumes, which may ease pressure on robusta prices, but continues to support Arabica prices. Despite the increase in supply, prices remain high due to concerns about the future harvest amid the continuing risk of climatic anomalies such as El Nino.On the other hand, the demand for coffee is also growing, especially against the background of the trend towards a healthy lifestyle and the preference for natural drinks among consumers. This supports a steady demand for Arabica, despite rising prices. However, a possible global economic downturn could weaken consumption and affect overall demand, which is also an important factor for future prices.Resistance levels: $2.40, $2.50.Support levels: $2.25, ...
GBP/JPY: Yen strengthens after Bank of Japan rate hikeThe GBP/JPY pair is correcting after a volatile start to the week, trading at 192.214 and updating the lows of the last month.Despite the positive economic data, the quotes did not receive sufficient support. In the UK, inflation remains at a high level, despite the efforts of the Bank of England to reduce it. GDP growth slowed in the second quarter, which puts pressure on the pound. In Japan, by contrast, the recent interest rate hike to 0.25% and plans to reduce the quantitative easing program supported the yen, which also contributed to the pair's decline.Nevertheless, despite the differences in monetary policy, the GBP/JPY pair continues to trade within the framework of a long-term uptrend. The main support levels are at 190.00 and 186.76, while resistance levels are located at 196.71 and 199.46. Analysts' forecasts indicate a possible recovery of the pair to the level of 199.46 by the end of the year, with a possible further increase to 203.04 in 2025. However, if the pair fails to gain a foothold above the current levels, a corrective decline towards the 175.00 mark may begin.Resistance levels: 196.71, 199.46.Support levels: 190.00, 186.76.EUR/TRY: inflation in the eurozone is the driver for the pairThe EUR/TRY pair is correcting after a volatile start to the week, trading at 35.9788 and updating the lows of the last month.In the Eurozone, inflation reached 2.6% in July, which is higher than analysts' expectations and may lead to a tightening of the monetary policy of the European Central Bank. Despite this, German GDP declined in the second quarter, which has a negative impact on the economic prospects of the region. Political stability in the Eurozone remains relatively high, but economic data show mixed results, which creates uncertainty for the euro.The economic situation in Turkey continues to deteriorate amid high inflation and political instability. The central bank is taking steps to stabilize the lira, but investor confidence remains weak. Analysts' forecasts suggest a further weakening of the Turkish lira, which may lead to an increase in the EUR/TRY pair to the level of 44.081 by the end of 2024.Resistance levels: 36.7296, 38.5577.Support levels: 35.5, 34.5.AUD/NZD: mixed economic results support volatilityThe AUD/NZD pair is correcting after a volatile start to the week, trading at 1.09859 and updating the lows of the last month.The economic situation in Australia shows mixed results. Despite expectations of lower interest rates, the latest Australian inflation data turned out to be higher than expected, which may force the Reserve Bank of Australia to reconsider its monetary policy plans and potentially raise rates. On the other hand, in New Zealand, the Reserve Bank maintains a softer monetary policy, which creates favorable conditions for the strengthening of the Australian dollar against the New Zealand dollar.Political and economic news also have an impact on the exchange rate of the currency pair. Discussions are continuing in Australia on measures to stimulate the economy, which may support further AUD growth. In New Zealand, economic indicators such as employment and retail sales remain under pressure, adding to the negative backdrop for the NZD. Analysts predict that the AUD/NZD pair may fluctuate in the range of 1.0950-1.1050 in the short term, with a possible increase to 1.12 in the event of an improvement in economic indicators in Australia.Resistance levels: 1.1050, 1.1100.Support levels: 1.0950, 1.0900.Copper market analysisCopper is correcting after reaching historic highs at the beginning of the year, trading at $9,051.50 per metric ton as of August 1, 2024.In the second quarter of 2024, copper reached record levels amid supply disruptions and high demand, especially from the energy sectors. In May, the price of copper reached $11,464 per metric ton on COMEX and $10,730 on the London Metal Exchange (LME). However, by the end of June, the price had rolled back to $9,418 per metric ton, due to an improved macroeconomic environment in the United States and a decrease in refining volumes in China.Copper supply problems also remain a significant factor supporting high prices. The closure of First Quantum's Cobre Panama mine, which provided about 1% of the world's copper supply, led to a shortage in the market. Additionally, Anglo American reported a reduction in production forecasts for 2024, despite an increase in production in the first quarter.Resistance levels: 10,000, 11,000.Support levels: 8,450, ...
According to Markit Economics, activity in the Australian manufacturing sector continues to grow. However, the pace of this growth has slowed down slightly. The PMI value fell this month to 51.7 points, which was the lowest level of the indicator for the last 14 months. In July, it was at the level of 56.9 points. The survey participants reported a negative impact on the production of supply disruptions. Demand has also declined. This is evidenced by a decrease in the volume of new orders. The deadlines for the execution of applications by suppliers have increased. At the same time, they are growing at the fastest pace since April last year. The degree of price pressure decreased slightly in August. However, production costs grew at a rate that is significantly higher than the average value. Despite the existing problems, many representatives of companies positively assess the prospects for the next 12 months. The PMI in the Australian services sector fell this month by 0.9 points to 43.3 ...
Data published by the Australian Customs Administration shows an increase in the country's foreign trade surplus. At the end of June, it amounted to $10 billion 496 million, which is $51 million more than the experts' forecast. In the previous month, the surplus amounted to $9 billion 269 million. Experts note that Australia has managed to maintain a profit on the foreign trade balance for more than 40 months in a row. This indicates a high demand for its products from countries that are Australia's main trading partners. In June, the growth rate of export deliveries in monthly terms slowed to 4%. According to the results of the previous month, the volume of Australian exports increased by 6%. Imports rose by 1% in June after rising by 3% in May. According to Moody's, Australia is on the list of countries with moderate economic losses from the coronavirus pandemic. Its economy is gradually ...
The Australian dollar against the New Zealand dollar is an interesting combination of one cross pair of two almost identical commodity currencies in the Pacific region.AUDNZD online signals todayEach currency included in this pair is very dynamic and other combinations offer good activity. But together, AUD and NZD are unidirectional and therefore cannot boast of great volatility, but on the other hand, this is also a plus,as it makes the pair more predictable in terms of forecasting.This is especially good for inexperienced traders.AUD/NZD: Trading signals, analytics and online forecastsAUD/NZD quotes on a chart with an indicator (online)The volatility calculator shows that the AUD/NZD averages 90 pips per day. Whether it's due to currency pair specifics or just happens to be, the days of the week have been pretty much the same (at least for the past 20 weeks), with the exception of Tuesday, which is the quietest trading day. During the day, currency pairs are most concentrated during the opening of the Hong Kong and Singapore stock exchanges in the Asian session,the opening of Sydney and Wellington, as well as during the first hours and the intersection of the European segment of trading with the American ones.General characteristicsThe AUD/NZD cross is a less common as set in the international currency markets, as evidenced by fairly high spreads in the10-15 pips range. However, the absence of the US dollar in a currency pair does not make it immune to the influence of the US dollar. This is due to the fact that all transactions for the transfer of one currency to another pass through the US dollar, and not directly.The AUD acts as the base currency and is purchased in New Zealand dollars.Most systems display exchange rate values in a standard format.This means that up to 4 characters (1.0832) will be displayed after the delimiter, but a more accurate graph will also display the 5-th character (1.08325).Read more: AUD/CAD: exchange rate, online forecast, currency pair overviewThe close parallelism of economies and the frequent one-sided orientation of charts do not contribute to high volatility, but it is not low either (80-100 points per day on average). The large spreads (10-15 pips) combined with the average activity of the currency pair make it unattractive for scalpers, and although it is not an exotic financial product, it has high liquidity compared to most other popular crosses. Most in demand among local merchants from Australia, New Zealand and some countries in the Pacific region.Factors influencing AUDNZD and what affects the courseAustralia is a large statein Oceania, located in the Southern Hemisphere and covering the entire continent. Prior to that, it had been a British colony for a long time and completely specialized in raw materials and the development of agriculture. Analyzing by sectors, we get the following picture:About 71% of GDP comes from trade and services (medical care,education, banking,hotels,restaurants, etc.).26% of GDP is still accounted for by industry (mining, manufacturing).Only 3% remains for agriculture.The state and economy of New Zealand are in many ways similar to neighboring Australia. A recently independent British colony, it is also an agricultural and resource-rich country that has made great strides in development in recent decades. However, there are differences both in the size of the territory and the amount of available resources, as well as in population, level of economic development and labor market conditions. According to the last two, New Zealand is somewhat worse than its “big brother” (many New Zealanders go to work in neighboring Australia, where there are more jobs and higher wages).Sectoral data on the structure of the New Zealand economy looks like this:71% of GDP comes from the service sector.Industry accounts for 24.3% of government revenue.4.7% remains in agricultural production.Today, the movement of this financial instrument is largely in line with other assets, such as stock indices and currency pairs (mainly commodities).Maximum correlation exists when:European stock indices FRA40 – 89.2%, FTSE100 and SPA35 by 88.9% each; AUD/CAD – 87%, NASDAQ100 – 85.2% Dow Jones – 84.8%, ZAR/JPY – 84.5%, S&P500 – 84.1%, USD/HKD – 81.2%, GBP/NZD – 80.2%.Read more: EUR/NOK: exchange rate, signals, online forecast for today & analysisThe analysis shows that the most pronounced negative correlations are in the NZD/JPY – -91.1%, NZD/USD – -86.2%, NZD/CHF – -84.6%, Dollar/Peso – -82.9%, Pound against Aussie – -81.5%, Euro/Rand – -79.7%, Dollar/Rand – -76.9%, Pound against Lira – -76.4%, as well as GBP/SGD – -74.2% and CHF/SGD – -73.6%.The last important detail for successfully predicting the AUD/NZD pair is the set of the most important factors that have the greatest impact.First of all, raw materials, minerals, precious metals, as well as non-ferrous metals and agricultural products that are very important for both countries. Next, mention should be made of the trade balance and economic indicators (GDP, inflation, business activity, etc.) of both countries.Central bank interest rates in both countries also play an important role.Both territories, due to their location, are subject to many different climatic hazards (tsunamis, earthquakes, floods, hurricanes, volcanic eruptions,etc.) and should be considered as an important factor in their impact.Features of AUDNZD currency pairCarry trading in pairs is currently not possible. This is because the difference in refinancing rates between the two countries is very small (1.75% for Australia and 1.50% for New Zealand), resulting in negative swaps (-0.11 points in long cases and -0.84 for short positions).The pair is doing well in medium-term trading on the H4 time frame. The dynamics of the price movement is clearly visible and flows very smoothly compared to both the hourly and daily charts. This does not mean that trading on other time frames will be completely inconvenient. For novice traders, today's 4-hour time frame is the best solution.Read more: EUR/AUD: exchange rate, online quotes, signals, forecasts & analyticsDue to the large spread and not the strongest volatility, scalping this pair is not very profitable. Even experts cannot squeeze much profit out of AUD NZD at best, but experienced long-term workers can earn 150% or more ...
