EUR/GBP: euro is strengthening after a significant drop a day earlierThe EUR/GBP currency pair shows a slight rise, reaching 0.8537, recovering from a noticeable drop a day ago. The drop was caused by the publication of data from the United States confirming the persistence of inflation, which may affect the revision of the time frame for lowering interest rates in the last half of 2024. The February producer price index in the United States accelerated to 1.6% per annum, exceeding analysts' forecasts, and increased monthly by 0.6%, which is significantly higher than expectations. The core index, which excludes the cost of food and energy, also showed an increase of 2.0%, which contradicted the forecast of 1.9%.Meanwhile, in the UK, statistics on the RICS house price index were published, indicating a decrease of 10.0% in February, which is the best result since October last year. The demand index for new housing improved to 6.0. The construction sector is also showing signs of recovery, with an annual growth of 0.7% and a monthly increase of 1.1%. Despite the positive signals from the housing market, uncertainty about the future steps of the Bank of England may limit demand and contribute to a return to a declining trend.Resistance levels: 0.8546, 0.8562, 0.8577, 0.8591.Support levels: 0.8530, 0.8519, 0.8500, 0.8479.NZD/USD: New Zealand currency deepens the decline, reaching the minimum values in MarchThe NZD/USD currency pair continues to fall, activating the "bearish" trend this week and reaching new lows for March. The indicator enters the critical support zone at 0.6100, while positive economic data from New Zealand does not resonate with investors. In particular, the country's manufacturing activity index for February exceeded expectations, rising from 47.5 to 49.3 points.At the same time, rising manufacturing inflation in the United States is putting additional pressure on the New Zealand dollar. The latest report showed an acceleration in the producer price index in the United States from 0.3% to 0.6% in February, significantly exceeding analysts' forecasts. This has increased doubts about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in June, although this outcome remains the preferred scenario in the market.Resistance levels: 0.6130, 0.6158, 0.6183, 0.6200.Support levels: 0.6100, 0.6076, 0.6049, 0.6030.Platinum market analysisThis week, the correction trend continued its influence on the platinum position, bringing the quotes back to the value of 930.00 dollars per ounce.The market situation remains stable: the significant platinum deficit recorded last year, which reached a record 878,000 ounces according to the World Platinum Council (WPIC), is expected to decrease to 418,000 ounces next year, which still exceeds previous forecasts of 353,000 ounces. In the previous year, the total supply of the metal decreased by 2%, and this trend is expected to intensify with a further 1% year-on-year decline, leading to a 6% decrease in total supply over the past five years.Although market estimates seem neutral, the key technical aspect remains significant: the price of palladium exceeded the cost of platinum for eight years, but in February of this year the trend changed, and the difference between the metals temporarily amounted to -47 dollars. Now the price gap has widened again, and the difference between palladium and platinum has again exceeded $ 140. This significant change in profitability over a short period draws investors' attention to such a conservative investment strategy.Resistance levels: 942.00, 989.00.Support levels: 915.00, 876.00.Crude Oil market analysisIn the Asian trading session, the price of WTI crude oil shows uncertainty, hovering around the level of $ 80.60 per barrel, after reaching its highest levels since the beginning of November over the past two days.A significant decrease in the volume of fuel reserves in the United States became a catalyst for growth: fresh statistics from the American Petroleum Institute showed a decrease of 5.521 million barrels per week, exceeding analysts' expectations. These data are confirmed by a report from the Energy Information Administration, which also indicates a decrease in reserves. An additional positive boost was received from OPEC, which approved forecasts for oil demand growth, which reduces concerns about a slowdown in the global economy.Investors today will focus on American industrial production and consumer expectations from the University of Michigan. In the evening, Baker Hughes is expected to report on the number of operating oil platforms in the United States, which may provide new clues about the future direction of oil prices.Resistance levels: 81.00, 82.00, 82.86, 84.27.Support levels: 80.00, 79.07, 78.00, ...
EUR/GBP: the interest rate of the European Central Bank remained at 4.50%The euro is at low levels compared to most major currencies, with the exception of the US dollar, while the EUR/GBP pair shows a corrective movement in morning trading, settling at 0.8541.At yesterday's meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB), officials, as expected, left the main monetary rates unchanged (the main rate is 4.50%, the marginal rate is 4.75%, the deposit rate is 4.00%) and expressed readiness to reduce them if inflationary pressure decreases. Regulators confirmed that the current slowdown in consumer price growth is in line with medium-term expectations, due to lower prices for food and household goods, but did not specify the timing of a possible change in interest rates. It also announced plans to complete the reinvestment program for emergency asset purchases due to COVID-19 by the end of the year and significantly reduce the asset purchase program. The reduction of the emergency procurement program is taking place at a rate of 7.5 billion euros per month, which will allow it to be completed by the end of November or December.UK economic growth remains weak: in February, GDP growth was, as expected, only 0.1%, which is lower than the previous 0.3%, and this led to a decrease in annual growth to -0.2%. Among the main factors of such dynamics are industrial production, which increased by 1.1%, improving the annual rate to 1.4%, and the construction sector, where a decrease of 1.9% on a monthly basis and 2.0% year-on-year was recorded.Resistance levels: 0.8560, 0.8600.Support levels: 0.8530, 0.8480.USD/TRY: Investors tend to take profits after a week of growthThe USD/TRY currency pair shows ambiguous trends, holding near the level of 32.3165. Traders are refraining from opening new positions on Friday due to the expectation of a limited amount of macroeconomic data from the United States, as well as due to the profit-taking mood after moderate growth during the week. Earlier, the US dollar was helped by inflation data, which increased investors' doubts about the imminent reduction of the US Federal Reserve interest rate by 25 basis points in June.The Turkish lira continues to be under pressure due to economic difficulties in the country. Despite the efforts of monetary authorities and a significant increase in rates by the Central Bank of Turkey, annual inflation accelerated from 67.07% in February to 68.50% in March. At the same time, independent analysts from the Inflation Research Group (ENAG) record an annual price increase of more than 120%. Additionally, on April 9, the Turkish Ministry of Commerce imposed restrictions on the export of 54 categories of goods to Israel, including cement, glass, iron, aluminum and steel, which puts additional pressure on the already strained construction sector. These sanctions, in effect until the end of hostilities and the creation of conditions for free humanitarian aid to Gaza, are likely to raise prices for both Israeli and Turkish consumers.Resistance levels: 32.4500, 32.6000, 32.7500, 32.9000.Support levels: 32.3000, 32.1500, 32.0000, 31.8306.NZD/USD: the US currency has reached a new recordThe NZD/USD currency pair is experiencing a correction near the 0.5995 level, as the New Zealand currency is facing difficulties in trying to regain its position against the background of disappointing macroeconomic statistics.The March report showed that spending via e-cards in New Zealand decreased by 0.7%, which in absolute terms is a decrease of NZ$ 45 million compared to February. Compared to March of the previous year, 2023, the total amount of expenses decreased by 3.0%. This decrease was recorded in almost all key sectors of the economy: of the seven main sectors, only wholesale trade, with the exception of services, showed an increase of 2.1%. The biggest deterioration was seen in the sectors related to sales of clothing and motor vehicles, each of which showed a 2.2% drop. There was also a decrease in the fuel sectors by 1.4%, durable goods by 0.3% and consumables by 0.2%.These data indicate continued pressure on the New Zealand economy, which negatively affects the national currency and contributes to volatility in the foreign exchange market. The lack of significant improvement in economic indicators may continue to put pressure on the New Zealand dollar in the near term.Resistance levels: 0.6030, 0.6110.Support levels: 0.5970, 0.5870.Crude Oil market analysisPrices for North American WTI Crude Oil have stabilized at 85.09 in a sideways trend driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and seasonal growth in global fuel demand.The situation in the Middle East remains tense with expectations of possible Iranian retaliatory attacks on Israeli infrastructure, which has led to warnings for citizens of some countries to visit the region. At the same time, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in its latest monthly report predicted that global oil demand will increase to 2.25 million barrels per day in 2024, and decrease to 1.85 million barrels per day in 2025. A seasonal increase in fuel consumption is also expected in the second quarter: demand for aviation kerosene will grow by 600 thousand barrels per day, for gasoline — by 400 thousand, and for diesel fuel — by 200 thousand barrels per day.Resistance levels: 86.30, 90.00.Support levels: 84.00, ...
Trading idea for EUR/GBP on March 1, 2024EUR/GBP continues to consolidate near the 0.8550 level. For the second day in a row, there is zero dynamics of the asset, as market participants expect new drivers to appear that affect trading.Yesterday's preliminary data on the harmonized index of consumer prices in Germany for February showed a slowdown in inflation from 3.1% to 2.7% (YoY), Meanwhile, core inflation (excluding food and energy prices), which the European Central Bank (ECB) focuses on when planning the course of monetary policy, It decreased in February from 2.9% to 2.5%, against the analysts' forecast of 2.6%. A decrease in the growth rate of core inflation may suggest the possibility of an early easing of the ECB's policy, especially given Christine Lagarde's hints of a possible rate cut in the coming months. Inflation data in the Eurozone will be presented today. Analysts expect a decrease in the consumer price index from 2.8% to 2.5%, which will further increase the likelihood of an easing of the ECB rate. In this regard, the euro may come under pressure, strengthening the development of the current bearish trend.In the context of British statistics, data published on Thursday indicate an increase in the total volume of consumer loans in England by 1.877 billion pounds in January, which exceeds forecasts of 1.600 billion pounds. The number of approved mortgage loans reached 55.23 thousand, which is the highest figure since 2022. The growth in lending indicates the adaptation of British households to the current levels of the key interest rate and provides the Bank of England with an opportunity to focus on fighting inflation, without rushing to adjust monetary policy. In this context, the contrast in monetary approaches between the ECB and the Bank of England may become the main factor supporting the further decline of the EUR/GBP pair. We suggest that you include a new order in the trader's transaction diarySell-Stop 0.8520Take-profit 0.8400Stop-loss ...
EUR/GBP: the euro is growing amid negative forecasts for the German economyDuring Asian trading, the EUR/GBP currency pair shows growth, heading towards overcoming the 0.8570 level.The euro received support from February data on consumer confidence in the European Union, which showed an improvement from -16.1 to -15.5 points, ahead of analysts' forecasts of -15.6 points. At the same time, the euro is being influenced by the downward revision of the German economic growth forecast. Experts now forecast German GDP growth of only 0.2% this year, instead of the previously expected 1.3%, due to weak external demand for German goods, geopolitical risks and high inflation. German inflation is expected to reach 2.8% this year, falling short of the ECB's 2% target. Today's publication of S&P Global business activity data for February attracts the attention of investors, and a slight improvement in indicators in the services and manufacturing sectors is predicted.Resistance levels: 0.8577, 0.8591, 0.8611, 0.8632.Support levels: 0.8562, 0.8546, 0.8519, 0.8500.NZD/USD: reassessment of the timing of the easing of the US Federal Reserve policyThe NZD/USD currency pair is showing significant growth, continuing to form a bullish trend that began on February 14. At the moment, the pair is trying to overcome the 0.6200 level, updating the highs recorded since January 16.The strengthening of the New Zealand dollar is facilitated by the current weakness of the US dollar, which became apparent after the publication of the results of the January meeting of the Federal Reserve System. The participants of the Federal Open Market Committee expressed concern about the risks of early interest rate cuts compared with the duration of tightened monetary policy. As a result, markets adjusted expectations for Fed policy easing in May and June, where the probability of a 25 basis point correction is estimated at 35%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.The positive trend for NZD/USD was not disrupted even by weak economic indicators from New Zealand, where exports fell from $5.85 billion to $4.93 billion in January, and imports fell from $6.22 billion to $5.91 billion, which led to an increase in the trade deficit from $368 million to $976 million in a month. New Zealand retail sales data for the fourth quarter of 2023 is also expected to be released this evening.Resistance levels: 0.6200, 0.6221, 0.6250, 0.6300.Support levels: 0.6158, 0.6130, 0.6100, 0.6060.AUD/USD: the market evaluates the results of the last sessions of the RBA and the US Federal ReserveThe AUD/USD currency pair is at 0.6580 and is aimed at further strengthening to the target of 0.6616.This week, the results of the last meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) were presented. During the meeting, the regulator expressed the opinion that before making a decision to reduce the interest rate from the current level of 4.35%, additional time and data analysis will be required, with special attention to achieving a stable rate of inflation reduction to the target level of 2.0%. Salary growth in the fourth quarter was in line with experts' forecasts, showing an increase of 0.9% compared to the previous quarter and reaching 4.2% on an annual basis, which was higher than the expected 4.1%. This may encourage the RBA to maintain a high level of interest rates for longer than expected by the market, although most analysts still believe that the bank will begin to ease monetary policy this fall.Resistance levels: 0.6616, 0.6675, 0.6727.Support levels: 0.6538, 0.6447.Silver market analysisThe XAG/USD currency pair is experiencing a slight rise, approaching the level of 23.00. Market activity remains moderate, despite the abundance of economic data.Expectations of a soft monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve contribute to the support of silver. The analysis of the CME Group FedWatch Tool shows a decrease in the probability of interest rate cuts in May from the previously estimated 60% to the current 35%. The publication of the minutes of the January Fed meeting confirmed such sentiments, where FOMC members expressed concern about the rate of decline in inflation to the target level of 2%. There is an opinion that expectations for a decrease in inflation may not come true, which pushes the regulator to continue careful monitoring of the economic situation, and the risks are associated with an early reduction in rates rather than with a long period of their high level.Today, investors will also focus on the statistics of applications for unemployment benefits and on February business activity data from S&P Global, where a slight decrease in indices in the service and manufacturing sectors is expected.Resistance levels: 23.00, 23.32, 23.60, 23.83.Support levels: 22.70, 22.50, 22.21, ...