EUR/GBP: recovery after a series of bearish sessionsThe EUR/GBP pair is showing cautious growth, trading around 0.8328, compensating for losses after mostly bearish sentiment, which this week led to the testing of minimum levels since November 15.The stabilization of inflation in the eurozone, thanks to the efforts of the European Central Bank (ECB), opens up new challenges related to weakening domestic demand and economic uncertainty. Investors are looking forward to the publication of November business activity data in Germany and the eurozone. The S&P Global index of business activity in the eurozone services sector is expected to rise from 51.6 to 51.8 points, while the manufacturing index will remain at 46.0 points. A similar trend is forecast in Germany: the services sector is likely to show growth from 51.6 to 51.7 points, while the manufacturing index will remain at 43.0 points. Yesterday, the head of the Bank of France, Francois Villeroy de Gallo, expressed the opinion that the increase in duties on goods by the administration of the newly elected US President Donald Trump would not have a significant impact on the region's inflation forecasts. He stressed the need to continue the ECB's soft monetary policy with an emphasis on "flexibility and pragmatism" to adapt to changing conditions.Against the British background, attention was drawn to the November consumer confidence index from Gfk Group, which rose from -21.0 to -18.0 points, surpassing forecasts of -22.0 points. CBI analyst Ben Jones noted that the US elections, with their unexpected results, continue to restrain consumer activity, although the situation may improve in the next quarter. Additionally, investors are studying statistics on UK government borrowing, which reached 17.4 billion pounds in October, the second highest figure since 1993. In the first seven months of the current tax year, the debt increased to 96.6 billion pounds, which is 1.1 billion more than the same period last year, raising concerns about the fiscal sustainability of the country.Resistance levels: 0.8326, 0.8340, 0.8350, 0.8359.Support levels: 0.8310, 0.8294, 0.8280, 0.8259.AUD/USD: the expectation of statistics from the United States affects the dynamics of the pairThe AUD/USD pair is showing a moderate decline, continuing to form a weakly expressed "bearish" trend, which originated in the middle of this week. Quotes are once again trying to overcome the psychological support level of 0.6500, while the markets are waiting for fresh triggers to appear for movement.Today's macroeconomic statistics from Australia could not significantly affect the dynamics of the instrument. Thus, the index of business activity in the manufacturing industry from S&P Global rose to 49.4 points in November from the previous value of 47.3 points, which indicates a slowdown in the recession. At the same time, the indicator in the services sector from Commonwealth Bank decreased from 51.0 points to 49.6 points, and the composite index decreased to 49.4 points against October's 50.2 points. These data indicate continuing problems in the economy, although growth in the service sector remains an important factor supporting the overall level of activity.The attention of market participants is shifted to the upcoming American data. At 16:45 (GMT+2), business activity indices in the United States will be published, based on surveys of purchasing and supply managers. Forecasts suggest an improvement: the index in the S&P Global services sector may rise from 55.0 points to 55.3 points, and the indicator in the manufacturing sector from 48.5 points to 48.8 points. Already published statistics on the labor market show mixed dynamics: the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits for the week ended November 15 decreased from 219.0 thousand to 213.0 thousand, which is better than expectations of 220.0 thousand. However, the number of repeat applications increased to 1.908 million against 1.872 million, exceeding the forecast of 1.870 million. This highlights the resilience of the labor sector to the current monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve. It is noteworthy that the comments of the representatives of the regulator remain diverse. Michelle Bowman, a member of the Fed's Board of Governors, noted that inflation, although declining, still remains at a high level, and its slowdown requires a cautious approach to easing monetary policy. This statement adds uncertainty about the next steps of the US financial authorities, which puts pressure on investor sentiment and on the AUD/USD pair.Resistance levels: 0.6500, 0.6536, 0.6570, 0.6600.Support levels: 0.6478, 0.6440, 0.6420, 0.6388.USD/TRY: Lira retains weak prospects for strengtheningIn the morning, the USD/TRY pair is trading at around 34.5047, under pressure from weak macroeconomic data from Turkey and the growth of the US dollar.In November, the consumer confidence index in Turkey fell from 80.6 to 79.8 points, which was the first deterioration in the indicator since June this year. However, the index value has remained below the neutral level of 100.0 points for more than five years, indicating continued pessimism among consumers. Serious reductions were recorded in the construction sector in the third quarter: the total area of facilities allowed for construction decreased by 18.9%, the number of building permits decreased by 18.8%, and apartments by 17.0%. This confirms the weakening of activity in one of the key sectors of the economy.Meanwhile, the US dollar is strengthening, reaching 107.00 in the USDX index. This was facilitated by positive data on the US labor market. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits amounted to 213.0 thousand, which was lower than both the previous week's figure (219.0 thousand) and analysts' expectations (220.0 thousand). The average value over the past four weeks has decreased from 221.50 thousand to 217.75 thousand, although the total number of repeated requests increased to 1.908 million from 1.872 million. This trend reinforces expectations of continued sustained economic recovery in the United States.Resistance levels: 34.6600, 35.5000.Support levels: 34.3000, 33.4000.USD/CAD: price consolidates inside an expanding patternDuring the Asian session, the USD/CAD pair shows a correction, holding at 1.3982 amid the strengthening of the position of the US currency.According to Statistics Canada (StatsCan), in October, the industrial goods price index rose by 1.2% compared to the previous month, breaking a two-month decline, and increased by 1.1% year-on-year, reaching the highest level since April. Commodity prices showed an increase of 3.8%, while the indicator excluding oil and electricity increased by 3.1% month-on-month and decreased by 2.8% year-on-year. This dynamic supports stable growth in industrial production due to lower costs.The US dollar is strengthening, reaching the level of 107.00 in the USDX index — the highest since the end of autumn last year. The main driver of growth was positive indicators in the labor market: the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits decreased from 219.0 thousand to 213.0 thousand, while the total number of applications increased to 1.908 million people against 1.872 million a week earlier. The average number of applications over the past four weeks has decreased to 217.75 thousand, which was the lowest value since May. The stability of the labor market confirms the likelihood of the continuation of the "dovish" rhetoric of the US Federal Reserve, since current inflation remains localized in certain sectors, in particular, in real estate. This week, Lisa Cook, a member of the Fed's Board of Governors, said that next year the consumer price index could reach 2.2%, which is close to the target 2.0%, confirming the effectiveness of the monetary policy.Resistance levels: 1.4020, 1.4190.Support levels: 1.3930, ...
EUR/GBP: ECB ended the year by lowering all three key ratesThe EUR/GBP pair is showing smooth growth, continuing to strengthen after the bullish momentum recorded the day before. The quotes have retreated from the minimum values of March 2022 and are trying to break through the 0.8260 mark, showing stable upward dynamics.The British economy did not meet analysts' expectations for gross domestic product (GDP) for October. Instead of the expected growth of 0.1%, the indicator remained at -0.1%. Industrial production volumes also disappointed: in annual terms, the decrease was 0.7%, although growth of 0.2% was predicted, and on a monthly basis, the indicator fell by 0.6% instead of the expected 0.3%. This weak statistic increases the uncertainty surrounding the decisions of the Bank of England, whose next meeting is scheduled for December 19.Investors are analyzing the results of the meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) held the day before, where rates were reduced by 25 basis points. The key rate is now 3.15%, the margin rate is 3.40%, and the deposit rate is 3.00%. ECB President Christine Lagarde noted that domestic inflation is declining, but remains high, as the adaptation of wages and prices has not yet been completed. Forecasts for economic growth in the region have been revised downward: for 2024, the forecast is 0.7% instead of 0.8%, for 2025 — 1.1% instead of 1.3%, and for 2026 — 1.4% instead of 1.5%. Market participants' expectations are inclined to a more active reduction in ECB rates compared to the US Federal Reserve next year.Resistance levels: 0.8280, 0.8294, 0.8310, 0.8326.Support levels: 0.8259, 0.8238, 0.8223, 0.8200.USD/CHF: restoring the dominance of the American currencyThe USD/CHF pair is consolidating at 0.8927, demonstrating a corrective trend and willingness to continue moving up due to the strengthening of the US dollar.The Swiss National Bank maintains the stability of the franc through a dovish policy. The regulator lowered the interest rate to 0.50%, deviating from forecasts suggesting a decrease to 0.75% by 25 basis points. The regulator's statement emphasizes that the decrease in inflation in November turned out to be better than expected, which accelerates the achievement of monetary policy goals. In addition, the decision is due to low business activity, requiring affordable loans for recovery. Switzerland's economic prospects remain subdued, but analysts predict that GDP growth could reach 1.0–1.5% in 2025. This level will help to stabilize key economic processes and accelerate market recovery.Resistance levels: 0.8960, 0.9100.Support levels: 0.8890, 0.8780.NZD/USD: household spending in New Zealand remains under pressureThe NZD/USD pair is showing growth, reaching the level of 0.5765, despite the continued strengthening of the US currency.The New Zealand dollar continues to move within the downward trend due to signs of slowing economic activity. According to the National Statistical Service of New Zealand (Stats.nz ), the volume of sales of electronic cards, reflecting the level of consumer spending, did not change in monthly terms in November, and the annual indicator deteriorated from -1.1% to -2.3%, remaining in negative territory for nine consecutive months. Among the key categories, spending growth was observed in the hospitality sector (+1.4%) and fuel purchases (+1.3%). At the same time, the largest decrease was recorded in spending on vehicle maintenance (-0.3%), the purchase of clothing and shoes (-1.0%), as well as durable goods (-0.2%).Resistance levels: 0.5800, 0.5920.Support levels: 0.5740, 0.5630.Platinum market analysisThis week, the XPT/USD pair showed diverse dynamics: starting with an increase in the area of 956.55, the quotes could not hold their positions and rolled back to 931.00, remaining under the influence of uncertainty about the upcoming actions of the US Federal Reserve System.The market expects that at the final meeting of the year, the regulator will reduce the interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.50%. However, the further trajectory of monetary policy raises questions. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% in November, but inflation figures continue to rise. Thus, the consumer price index increased to 2.7%, and the producer price index recorded a third month of growth, reaching 3.0%, which exceeds the target values. Against this background, it is possible to suspend the easing cycle or significantly reduce its pace, which may limit the rate correction to one or two times a year. If, after the US Federal Reserve meeting, signals are heard about the suspension of the "dovish" exchange rate, this will put pressure on safe haven assets, including platinum. On the contrary, statements of readiness to continue lowering rates may help strengthen the position of metals against the dollar.Resistance levels: 968.75, 1000.00, 1031.25.Support levels: 926.70, 906.25, ...
Рыночные корреляции казались несинхронными, поскольку трейдеры готовились к отчету по индексу потребительских цен в США и серии выступлений членов FOMC, которые повлияли на политические ожидания ФРС и общие настроения.Биткойн вновь поднялся до новых рекордных максимумов, в то время как сырая нефть колебалась в ответ на опасения, связанные с добычей.Анализ экономических показателей за 13 ноябряКвартальный индекс цен на заработную плату в Австралии в третьем квартале составил 0,8% кв/кв (ожидалось 0,9%, ранее было 0,8%).Член Комитета по ценным бумагам и биржам Кэтрин Манн предположила, что инфляция не была “побеждена”, указывая на то, что политики могут подождать со снижением ставокОбщий индекс потребительских цен в США в октябре составил 0,2% м/м, как ожидалось; годовой индекс потребительских цен вырос с 2,4% до 2,6%, как ожидалось; Базовый индекс потребительских цен совпал с ожиданиями на уровне 0,3% м/м.Члены FOMC призвали к осторожности в отношении будущих снижений ставок:Официальный представитель FOMC Кашкари отметил, что денежно-кредитная политика, вероятно, удерживает инфляционные ожидания на прежнем уровнеОфициальный представитель FOMC Логан подчеркнул необходимость осторожности при принятии решения о степени снижения ставокОфициальный представитель FOMC Мусалем выступил за умеренно ограничительную политику, пока инфляция остается выше целевого уровня в 2%.Член FOMC Шмид заявил, что “еще предстоит выяснить”, насколько еще ФРС может снизить ставкиБаланс федерального бюджета США снизился с профицита в 64,3 млрд долларов до дефицита в 257,5 млрд долларов (ожидаемый дефицит в 226,4 млрд долларов).Индекс цен на продовольствие в Новой Зеландии снизился на 0,9% м/м в октябре после предыдущего роста на 0,5%Изменение цен на рынкеТорги на азиатской сессии в среду прошли в беспорядке, когда дело дошло до корреляции рисков, поскольку высокодоходные активы, такие как сырьевые товары, акции США и криптовалюты, двигались в разных направлениях. В частности, золото и нефть марки WTI выросли на бычьей ноте, в то время как биткоин и акции снизились.Доходность казначейских облигаций и доллар начали снижаться в преддверии публикации индекса потребительских цен в США, который совпал с ожиданиями и спровоцировал первоначальное снижение на фоне фиксации прибыли. Менее оптимистичные комментарии FOMC позволили паре BTC/USD набирать обороты на пути к новым историческим максимумам, близким к $ 94 тыс., в то время как индекс S&P 500, похоже, также выиграл от публикации индекса потребительских цен, но в конечном итоге закрылся без изменений.Между тем, цены на нефть марки WTI смогли восстановиться после резкого падения, возможно, вызванного перебоями в добыче из-за урагана "Рафаэль" на побережье Мексиканского залива. Однако цены на золото снизились на 0,64%, вероятно, из-за роста доходности и укрепления доллара.Поведение валютного рынка: курс доллара США по отношению к основным валютамДоллар, по-видимому, торговался осторожно в преддверии публикации индекса потребительских цен, при этом основные пары демонстрировали умеренный рост в течение азиатских и лондонских рыночных часов.Фактические результаты показали, что общая и базовая инфляция соответствовали ожиданиям рынка, что привело к некоторой фиксации прибыли, прежде чем доллар вырос по всем направлениям. Менее "голубиный" комментарий президента ФРС Миннеаполиса Кашкари, возможно, также способствовал укреплению доллара, поскольку он признал, что ожидания в отношении денежно-кредитной политики удерживают ценовое давление на прежнем уровне.Доллар США смог еще больше укрепиться, поскольку член FOMC Мусалем укрепил осторожную позицию в отношении будущих снижений ставок. Несмотря на то, что ралли, похоже, пошло на спад после выступления члена FOMC Шмида, в котором обсуждалась некоторая неопределенность в отношении путей будущего снижения ставок, оно все равно завершилось в плюсе по сравнению с остальными валютными парами.Предстоящие важные новости в экономическом календаре Форекс на 14 ноябряВыступление члена FOMC Куглера в 12:00 по ГринвичуОтчет о заседании ЕЦБ по денежно-кредитной политике в 12:30 по ГринвичуВыступление члена MPC Манна в 13:00 по ГринвичуОсновные данные по индексу потребительских цен в США в 13:30 по ГринвичуЧисло первичных заявок на пособие по безработице в США в 13:30 по ГринвичуВыступление члена FOMC Баркина в 14:00 по ГринвичуОценка запасов сырой нефти в США в 16:00 по ГринвичуВыступление президента ЕЦБ Лагард в 19:00 по ГринвичуВыступление председателя ФРС Пауэлла в 20:00 по ГринвичуВыступление главы Банка Англии Бейли в 21:00 по ГринвичуВыступление члена FOMC Уильямса в 21:15 по ГринвичуПроизводственный индекс деловой активности в Новой Зеландии в 21:30 по ГринвичуПредварительный индекс ВВП и цен Японии в 21:50 по ГринвичуВолатильность доллара может сохраниться на следующих торговых сессиях, поскольку другие представители ФРС, включая самого Джерома Пауэлла, выступят с речами и, возможно, обсудят сроки будущего смягчения. Данные по ценам производителей в США также могут повлиять на прогноз инфляции.Внимательно следите за протоколами заседания ЕЦБ, а также за выступлениями главы ЕЦБ Лагард, поскольку они также могут повлиять на направление движения евро в течение ...
EUR/GBP: Euro holds growth by the end of the weekThe EUR/GBP pair is showing moderate growth, continuing the upward correction started this week and holding near the local highs recorded on October 17.Investors' main attention is focused on business activity data for October in the EU and the UK. In the eurozone, the index of business activity in the service sector, published by S&P Global, fell from 51.4 to 51.2 points, although an increase to 51.6 points was expected. In the manufacturing sector, the indicator increased from 45.0 to 45.9 points, which exceeded analysts' forecasts of 45.1 points, while the composite index in the same sector increased slightly from 49.6 to 49.7 points, coinciding with market expectations. In the UK, the statistics turned out to be more negative: the index of business activity in industry fell from 51.5 to 50.3 points, against the expected 51.4 points, and the index in the services sector fell from 52.4 to 51.8 points, falling short of the projected 52.2 points. The composite indicator from S&P Global/CIPS also showed a decrease from 52.6 to 51.7 points. Additionally, the British currency is under pressure from a deterioration in consumer sentiment: the Gfk Group confidence index fell from -20.0 to -21.0 points in October.Market participants continue to closely monitor the development of monetary policy in the eurozone. Traders are still expecting a rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB), while forecasts for changes in the policy of the US Federal Reserve Bank are changing amid the increased chances of Donald Trump winning the presidential election scheduled for November 5. Meanwhile, ECB President Christine Lagarde said that final decisions on interest rates have not yet been made, and called for a cautious approach to possible adjustments. The head of the Bank of Portugal, Mario Centeno, on the contrary, called for a sharp rate cut of 50 basis points at the next ECB meeting on December 12.Resistance levels: 0.8350, 0.8359, 0.8370, 0.8384.Support levels: 0.8338, 0.8326, 0.8310, 0.8294.NZD/USD: RBNZ reacts to rising unemployment and lowers interest ratesOn October 25, the NZD/USD currency pair is trading at 0.5996, which is 0.33% lower compared to the previous trading session. The New Zealand dollar continues to weaken amid weak economic data and actions by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). The bank recently lowered its key interest rate to 4.75%, due to a slowdown in inflation to 4.9% and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.1%. RBNZ is trying to stimulate domestic consumption and support exports, as the economy continues to show signs of slowing down.In addition, the pressure on the NZD exchange rate is exerted by the global trend in favor of the US dollar, which remains stable due to stable economic indicators in the United States. The main focus of the market is on the expected data on US GDP for the third quarter, as well as on the publication of the consumer spending index (PCE), which is a key indicator of inflation for the Fed. Inflation in the United States is stable at 3.7%, which gives the Federal Reserve reason to maintain the current policy of high rates.The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has issued a statement on its readiness to take additional measures to support the economy if domestic demand does not recover in the coming quarters. In turn, the strengthening of the US dollar is associated with confidence that the Fed will be able to control inflationary risks in a tight monetary policy environment. Any deviations in the GDP or PCE data may lead to increased volatility in the market and a change in the dynamics of the NZD/USD pair.Resistance levels: 0.6020, 0.6080.Support levels: 0.5950, 0.5910.AUD/JPY: Inflation in Australia is slowing, putting pressure on AUDAs of October 25, 2024, the AUD/JPY currency pair is trading at 100.64, which is 0.07% lower compared to the previous trading session. This decrease is due to the strengthening of the Japanese yen against the background of recent statements by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and weakening economic activity in Australia.The economic situation in Australia remains difficult. In the recent inflation report for the third quarter, the consumer price index (CPI) fell to 5.1%, which is lower than the previous 5.6%. This indicates a weakening of inflationary pressures, but the economy remains vulnerable, which forces the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to adhere to a cautious monetary policy. At the same time, the unemployment rate in the country rose to 3.9%, which is higher than analysts' expectations. In response to these economic challenges, the RBA is not yet considering an active tightening of policy, which also puts pressure on the Australian dollar.In Japan, the situation is more stable, but challenges remain. The Bank of Japan maintains an extremely soft monetary policy, despite an increase in inflation to 3.2% in annual terms. The level of business activity remains below 50 points, indicating a slowdown in the economy, but the BOJ continues to monitor bond yields in an attempt to support growth. This decision has a positive effect on the yen, increasing its competitiveness, especially against the background of the strengthening Australian dollar.Resistance levels: 101.00, 101.50.Support levels: 100.30, 99.90.Copper market analysisAs of October 25, 2024, the price of Copper is $9,367.25 per ton, which is 0.04% more than in the previous trading session. The price increase is due to continued demand amid supply uncertainty and the recovery of industrial production in key consumer countries such as China.The economic situation in China has a significant impact on the copper market. China, as the world's largest consumer of copper, continues to show signs of recovery in industrial production. The latest data on the index of business activity in the industrial sector (PMI) for September showed an increase to 50.3 points, which indicates the return of activity to a positive zone. The Chinese authorities also announced support for infrastructure projects, which led to an increase in demand for copper in the construction and energy industries. Investors continue to closely monitor the government's policy on stimulating the economy, as any measures to support production could significantly increase demand for copper in the coming months.In the global context, there are also concerns about the limited supply of copper against the background of geopolitical risks and possible supply disruptions. Problems in the extractive sector in a number of countries, such as Chile and Peru, affect overall production and keep prices high. Chilean mines are facing protests and operational difficulties, which limit copper exports, while in Peru, logistics and labor problems continue to constrain supply volumes.Resistance levels: $9,450, $9,600.Support levels: $9,300, ...
EUR/GBP: minutes of the ECB meeting in the focus of investors' attentionThe EUR/GBP pair is showing a moderate recovery, regaining positions after the "bearish" dynamics observed at the beginning of the week. The exchange rate is testing the 0.8380 level for an upward breakout, while traders are evaluating fresh macroeconomic data from the eurozone and the UK.In Germany, the consumer price index for September remained at 1.6% year-on-year, while the monthly indicator remained unchanged, fixed at 0.0%. The harmonized CPI index increased by 1.8% year-on-year, although it decreased by 0.1% on a monthly basis. Investors are also analyzing the minutes of the September meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB), where a reduction in inflationary pressure was discussed. Most ECB representatives called for further easing of monetary policy, despite the fact that inflation remains noticeable. At the same time, experts fear a possible slowdown in economic growth and admit that inflation may remain below the target level of 2.0% for a long time. The market expects that the ECB may cut rates twice more by the end of the year.The economic situation in the UK is also of interest. The country's GDP increased by 0.2% in August after stagnating in the previous month, while industrial production fell by 1.6% year-on-year, exceeding the projected -0.5%. At the same time, the monthly growth was 0.5%, exceeding expectations of 0.2%. The manufacturing sector showed a decrease of 0.3% compared to -2.0% in July, while monthly growth was 1.1%. Business activity in the services sector slowed to 0.1% in August, against 0.6% in July, which was below forecasts of 0.3%.Resistance levels: 0.8384, 0.8400, 0.8410, 0.8433.Support levels: 0.8370, 0.8350, 0.8338, 0.8326.USD/TRY: analysts predict a rate cut in JanuaryIn the Asian session, the USD/TRY pair shows a recovery after the unstable dynamics of this week, again testing the 34.2800 mark for an upward breakdown and updating the highs from August 28. The pair's movement is due to the publication of inflation data in the United States, which supported the American currency.Experts interviewed by Reuters suggest that the Central Bank of Turkey will change its plans to ease monetary policy. Out of ten respondents, six believe that the rate cut from the current 50.00% will take place in December, while four predict that it will happen in January. Most analysts expect an initial decrease of 250 basis points (to 47.50%), and one of the experts suggests a reduction of 500 basis points at once. These forecasts are in line with the expectations of economists from JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Industrial production data for August will be published today, October 11, in Turkey at 10:00 (GMT+2). The indicator is projected to grow by 2.5% compared to the previous month, which may strengthen the lira against the background of positive economic signals. At 12:00 (GMT+2), employment data will also be released, which will help assess the overall state of the labor market in Turkey and may affect expectations for inflation and the future policy of the Central Bank. In addition, tomorrow, October 12, at 11:00 (GMT+2), a report on Turkey's current account balance for August is expected to be published, which, according to forecasts, will show a deficit of $3.5 billion. This event may put pressure on the Turkish lira if the actual data exceed expectations, which indicates an increase in foreign economic risks for the country.Resistance levels: 34.3000, 34.3500, 34.4091, 34.5000.Support levels: 34.2325, 34.1800, 34.0939, 34.0000.USD/CHF: the decline in US inflation turned out to be weaker than expectedThe USD/CHF pair is at 0.8571 and shows potential for further growth, while the Swiss franc remains one of the most stable currencies among developed economies, thanks to stable macroeconomic indicators.The Swiss National Bank, according to a statement by its vice-chairman Antoine Martin, aims to continue reducing interest rates until the end of the year. Martin noted that key inflation and economic growth targets have been achieved, which allows the regulator to consider the possibility of another reduction by 25 basis points. This year, the cost of borrowing has already been adjusted three times, and in September 2024, the consumer price index reached the lowest level in the last three years — 0.8%. According to Martin, in the long term, the bank intends to return to negative interest rates, which, as before, will be an important incentive to attract investments into the economy.At the same time, the US dollar is at 102.60 on the USDX index, which is the highest since mid-August. A decrease in inflation in the United States from 2.5% to 2.4% in annual terms, while an increase in the basic consumer price index to 3.3% did not put significant pressure on the dollar. This dynamic may signal a further reduction in the interest rate by the Federal Reserve, but with minimal changes — by 25 basis points. Investors expect the Fed to make two such cuts by the end of the year, but San Francisco Fed Governor Mary Daley noted that the final decision would depend on incoming data, and the pace of adjustments could be adjusted.Resistance levels: 0.8610, 0.8750.Support levels: 0.8530, 0.8400.Oil market analysisWTI Crude Oil prices are showing mixed dynamics, remaining around the $75.00 per barrel mark. In the previous session, the instrument showed a noticeable increase, largely due to the publication of US inflation data for September.A significant factor supporting the quotes is the high demand for fuel in the United States, which increased against the background of a major hurricane that struck the state of Florida. In response to the approaching disaster, many oil companies have taken precautions by closing some platforms in the Gulf of Mexico. For example, Chevron Corp. It stopped the operation of one of its drilling rigs, which produced about 65 thousand barrels of oil per day.Geopolitical risks in the Middle East provide additional support for oil. Recall that on October 1, Iran fired more than 180 missiles in the direction of Israel, which was in response to the Israeli Defense Forces strikes on Lebanon, which killed one of the leaders of the Hezbollah group. These events raise concerns in the market about the possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, which is a strategic route for oil transportation: up to 21% of the world's daily oil consumption passes through it.Resistance levels: 75.00, 76.00, 77.00, 78.00.Support levels: 74.00, 73.00, 72.17, ...
EUR/GBP: the drop in business activity in the eurozone puts pressure on the euroThe EUR/GBP pair is near the 0.8550 level as of October 3, showing a slight correction after the recent rise. This value reflects the sideways movement of the pair, which is 0.1% less than in the previous trading session. During the current session, quotes are being adjusted against the background of weak data from the eurozone and the UK, but there is still potential for further growth if the pair holds above the key support level of 0.8550.The economic situation in the eurozone remains difficult. Published data on the business activity index (PMI) in September showed a drop in the manufacturing sector to 43.4 points, which is lower than the forecast of 43.6 points. This reinforces expectations of a possible further easing of the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB), especially in the context of persistent inflation. It is expected that the ECB may lower the interest rate by the end of the year if economic activity does not recover. Retail sales data for August will be published in the eurozone today at 11:00 (GMT+2), which is expected to show a decrease of 0.5% compared to the previous month. These data may increase pressure on the ECB in light of a possible easing of monetary policy. In addition, at 12:30 (GMT+2), the index of business activity in the German construction sector for September will be published, the projected value is 45.5 points, which indicates a decrease in activity in the sector.The situation in the UK also does not contribute to the strengthening of the pound. The latest GDP data for the third quarter showed a slowdown in growth to 0.2%, which is below expectations. Inflation remains above the target level of 4.6%, which forces the Bank of England to keep high interest rates at 5.25%, despite the slowdown in the economy. Investors expect a decision on rates in the coming months, which could have a significant impact on the EUR/GBP pair. Tomorrow at 09:00 (GMT+2), data on industrial production for August will be presented in the UK. A decrease of 0.1% is expected compared to the previous month, which may put pressure on the pound. At 10:00 (GMT+2), the GfK consumer confidence index for October will be released, the indicator is expected to improve from -25 to -23 points.Resistance levels: 0.8600, 0.8650.Support levels: 0.8550, 0.8500.NZD/USD: housing prices in New Zealand continue to fallThe NZD/USD pair is showing a noticeable decline, developing a powerful "bearish" momentum that began at the beginning of the week: the instrument is approaching the 0.6235 mark, trying to overcome it amid expectations of new factors for movement.Statistics from New Zealand have not yet had a significant impact on the pair's behavior: the published ANZ commodity price index fell from 2.1% to 1.8% in September, which may increase pressure on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on the issue of possible monetary policy easing. Earlier in the week, investors' attention was focused on the data on business optimism: the indicator rose from 50.6 to 60.9 points, and the forecast of business activity from the National Bank increased from 37.1% to 45.3%. The real estate market continues to decline in prices, which has been going on for seven months, although the rate of decline has slowed: prices fell by only 0.5%, due to a decrease in mortgage rates, as reported by CoreLogic NZ. Such dynamics indicate a decrease in purchasing power against the background of an economic slowdown and rising unemployment, which negatively affects household incomes. The situation may change if, at the upcoming meeting on October 9, the Reserve Bank continues to adhere to the "dovish" course, which has already led to a decrease in the average two-year mortgage rate below 6.0%.Resistance levels: 0.6254, 0.6280, 0.6300, 0.6330.Support levels: 0.6221, 0.6200, 0.6177, 0.6158.USD/JPY: Dollar strengthens, updating local peaksThe USD/JPY pair remains near the 146.60 mark, having reached new local highs since August 20 against the background of the release of American macroeconomic statistics. According to a report by Automatic Data Processing (ADP), in September, the employment rate in the private sector increased from 103.0 thousand to 143.0 thousand, surpassing the forecasts of analysts who expected an increase of 120.0 thousand jobs. Tomorrow at 14:30 (GMT+2), the final data on the US labor market for September will be published, where it is expected that the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector will remain at the level of 140.0 thousand. The average annual hourly wage growth is projected at 3.8%, and the monthly figure may slow slightly from 0.4% to 0.3%, which may indicate a decrease in inflationary pressure. The unemployment rate is expected to remain around 4.2%.The yen is under pressure from recent statistics from Japan. In September, the manufacturing business activity index from Jibun Bank fell from 53.9 to 53.1 points, contrary to analysts' expectations of maintaining the previous level. The head of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, noted that the regulator will closely monitor volatility in the markets before making decisions on monetary policy. He stressed that the economic prospects for the United States and the world remain uncertain, and markets are unstable, but inflation is gradually approaching the target level of 2.0%. At the same time, Ueda did not rule out the possibility of an interest rate increase if the economic dynamics and inflation forecasts are confirmed. At the same time, the new Prime Minister of Japan, Shigeru Ishiba, spoke out against raising rates in the current conditions. Japanese Economy Minister Resi Akazawa also called for caution when adjusting policy parameters, noting that current rates at 0.25% are below world standards and that efforts should be aimed at combating deflation.Resistance levels: 147.00, 148.21, 149.50, 150.50.Support levels: 146.00, 145.00, 144.00, 143.35.AUD/USD: weak indicators of exports and services put pressure on the Australian dollarThe AUD/USD pair shows a corrective movement, trading near the level of 0.6860 against the background of strengthening the position of the US dollar.The Australian currency weakened after the release of disappointing macroeconomic data. Exports decreased from 0.3% to -0.2%, while imports decreased from -0.6% to -0.2%, which led to a slight change in the trade balance from 5.636 billion to 5.644 billion Australian dollars. The index of business activity in the service sector in September fell from 52.5 to 50.5 points, which turned out to be worse than the predicted value of 50.6 points.Earlier, the attention of market participants was attracted by data from American International Group Inc. (AIG) on the state of business activity in key sectors of the Australian economy. Despite the fact that the indicator in the construction industry improved from -38.1 to -19.8 points, it remains in the negative zone, which signals ongoing difficulties in the economy. In the manufacturing sector, the situation also worsened: the index fell from -30.8 to -33.6 points, indicating continuing problems amid the long-term policy of tightening monetary conditions pursued by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Thus, the current economic data is putting pressure on the Australian dollar, while the US dollar is receiving support due to strong domestic indicators.Resistance levels: 0.6904, 0.7000.Support levels: 0.6852, ...
EUR/GBP: ECB has reduced all key interest ratesThe EUR/GBP pair is showing an uncertain decline, continuing to develop the downward trend that began to form the day before. The instrument is testing support at 0.8430, and traders are assessing the consequences of the decision of the European Central Bank (ECB) announced at yesterday's meeting.The ECB has decided to reduce the key interest rate by 60 basis points to 3.65%, while also reducing the refinancing rate and margin loans. This decision was expected and was due to a decrease in business activity in the region and a slowdown in consumer price growth. Despite this, inflation in the eurozone countries remains high, especially in the service sector, which led to a revision of the forecasts for core inflation for 2024 and 2025. In the updated forecasts, the economic growth rate was adjusted downward — from 0.9% to 0.8% this year and from 1.4% to 1.3% next year. However, disagreements remain within the ECB: Some officials advocate further rate cuts due to the slowdown in economic activity, while others urge caution for fear of renewed inflationary pressures.Meanwhile, British investors are analyzing possible steps by the Bank of England, although the likelihood of monetary policy easing at the next meeting looks insignificant after the recent 25 basis point rate cut. Economic activity in the UK remains weak — gross domestic product (GDP) showed zero growth in July for the second month in a row. Industrial production is also showing a decline: in annual terms, volumes decreased by 1.2%, and in monthly terms — by 0.8%. The country's manufacturing sectors are facing a more severe slowdown than expected, which raises additional concerns among analysts.Resistance levels: 0.8450, 0.8465, 0.8483, 0.8500.Support levels: 0.8430, 0.8410, 0.8391, 0.8370.USD/CHF: dollar lost ground after reaching local peaksThe USD/CHF pair shows a slight decrease, continuing to develop a weak "bearish" trend, which formed after the instrument rolled back from the local highs recorded on August 21. The pair is currently trading near the 0.8500 level, trying to break through this support downwards, in anticipation of the publication of important macroeconomic data that may affect further market dynamics.Today at 16:00 (GMT+2), the release of five-year inflation expectations and the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan is expected. Forecasts suggest that inflation expectations will remain at 3.0% or show a slight decrease, and consumer confidence is likely to increase to 68.0 points from the previous 67.9. These data are unlikely to have a strong impact on expectations for the upcoming Fed meeting scheduled for next week. Most analysts predict a 25 basis point reduction in the interest rate, although the probability of a more aggressive 50 basis point reduction is estimated at 20.0-25.0%. It is also expected that the Fed's accompanying statement may signal further rate cuts before the end of the year.Investors are also analyzing the results of the meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB), which took place the day before. The ECB has decided to reduce the interest rate by 60 basis points to 3.65%, and also allowed for the possibility of further changes in monetary policy before the end of the year. This decision may put pressure on the Swiss National Bank (SNB), which is likely to revise its monetary parameters at a meeting scheduled for September 26.Resistance levels: 0.8541, 0.8570, 0.8600, 0.8630.Support levels: 0.8500, 0.8450, 0.8400, 0.8365.USD/TRY: 15.0 thousand companies have closed in Turkey since JanuaryAfter three days of decline, which led to an update of the minimum of September 9, the USD/TRY pair began to recover and approached the level of 34.0000. However, market activity is noticeably decreasing amid expectations of a meeting of the US Federal Reserve System, where monetary policy issues will be discussed.At the same time, Turkish business is facing serious difficulties due to high inflation, which exceeded 75% at the beginning of the year, instability of the lira exchange rate, rising electricity prices and a decrease in export orders. In the first seven months of 2024, 15.0 thousand companies in Turkey reported closures, an increase of 28% compared to the same period last year. Markets hope for a stabilization of the situation by the end of the year, but the Central Bank of Turkey has kept the interest rate at 50% for more than five months. Although President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had previously expressed hope for inflation to fall below 50% in September, the latest report for August showed a slowdown in consumer price growth from 61.78% to 51.97%.Against this background, the international agency Fitch upgraded Turkey's credit rating from "B+" to "BB-", noting an improvement in foreign economic conditions and a reduction in foreign currency liabilities. At the same time, experts warn that premature easing of monetary policy may once again increase inflationary risks and pose a threat to macroeconomic stability and the balance of payments.Resistance levels: 34.0000, 34.0939, 34.2325, 34.3000.Support levels: 33.9022, 33.8000, 33.6722, 33.5450.AUD/NZD: New Zealand economic growth puts pressure on AUDAs of September 13, 2024, the AUD/NZD pair is trading near the level of 1.0869, showing slight fluctuations against the background of conflicting data from New Zealand and Australia. After several attempts to break through the support level at 1.0800, the pair shows a tendency to sideways movement, which is associated with instability in both economies.Economic data from New Zealand, such as strong growth in consumer spending and improved employment figures, support the New Zealand dollar. According to analysts, New Zealand's economic activity may grow by 1.1% in the third quarter, which is higher than expected for Australia, where economic growth is slowing. In turn, Australia is facing weakening demand for commodities and a decline in business activity. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently left the interest rate at 4.10%, which disappointed investors who expected more decisive steps to combat the slowdown in the economy.Experts note that, despite the short-term strength of the New Zealand dollar, a steady recovery in the Australian economy and a possible increase in RBA interest rates in the future may return the Australian dollar to a more confident position against the New Zealand dollar.Resistance levels: 1.0940, 1.1020.Support levels: 1.0800, ...
EUR/GBP: weak German GDP data increased pressure on the euroThe EUR/GBP pair is at the level of 0.8575 and shows sideways dynamics as of the trading session on September 2, which is 0.12% less than the previous session.The economic situation in the eurozone remains tense against the background of recent data on German GDP, which in the second quarter of 2024 showed a decrease of 0.1% on a monthly basis and stagnation on an annual basis. These data reinforce concerns about a possible recession in Europe's largest economy. Also, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (PMI) fell to 43.7 points in August, which further worsens forecasts for the euro. Tomorrow at 12:00 (GMT+2), the final estimate of eurozone GDP for the second quarter will be published: an increase of 0.1% in quarterly terms and a decrease of 0.4% on an annual basis is projected. Additionally, traders' attention will be focused on data on the consumer price index (CPI), which is expected to reach 5.2% year-on-year.In the UK, the economic situation is also worrying. The Bank of England has stopped the cycle of raising interest rates, fearing negative consequences for economic growth, predicting an increase in GDP in the third quarter of only 0.1%. Nevertheless, the labor market remains stable, with the unemployment rate at 4.2%, although wage growth has slowed. The publication of the manufacturing activity index (PMI) for August showed a decrease to 43.0 points, indicating further problems in the industrial sector. Tomorrow at 09:30 (GMT+2), data on the index of business activity in the service sector for August will be released, which may affect market sentiment.Resistance levels: 0.8610, 0.8670.Support levels: 0.8530, 0.8490.USD/CHF: Franc under pressure due to weak export demandThe USD/CHF pair is trading at 0.8490 against the background of weak dynamics of the US dollar. At the trading session on September 2, the pair shows a slight decrease, which is 0.04% lower than the previous session.The economic situation in the United States remains mixed. On Friday, September 6, data on the unemployment rate are expected, which may show a decrease from 3.6% to 3.5%, as well as indicators of job growth outside agriculture, projected at 170 thousand. These data may affect market expectations regarding the Fed's further monetary policy, which is likely to continue the cycle of rate hikes to control inflation, given the weak dynamics of the economy and the labor market.In Switzerland, the situation remains stable, but the head of the Swiss National Bank, Thomas Jordan, pointed to the pressure exerted on the country's economy by a strong franc and weak demand for exports, especially to the EU. The economic forecast indicates a decrease in the leading KOF index from 101.0 to 100.6 points, which also puts pressure on the national currency. In the coming weeks, discussions may follow on a possible easing of monetary policy to support the economy, which will have an impact on the dynamics of the franc.Resistance levels: 1.0850, 1.0940.Support levels: 1.0800, 1.0720.AUD/JPY: Australian GDP growth supported the strengthening of the pairThe AUD/JPY pair is trading at 94.60 and shows an upward trend as of the trading session on September 2, which is 0.23% higher compared to the previous session.In Australia, the economic situation remains under pressure amid a slowdown in retail sales growth, which showed zero growth in July, which is lower than analysts' forecasts of 0.3%. These data reinforce expectations of a possible easing of the monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which, according to its head Michelle Bullock, maintains a cautious approach to further rate cuts, despite projected inflation of 3.2% at the end of the year. Tomorrow, September 3, at 02:30 (GMT+2), data on Australia's gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter will be published, growth of 0.4% on a quarterly basis and 1.7% on an annual basis is expected, which may support the Australian dollar.In Japan, the situation remains stable, but industrial production data for July showed a decrease of 0.8% on a monthly basis, which turned out to be worse than market expectations. The unemployment rate in the country remains at 2.6%, and the consumer price index (CPI) slowed to 3.3% in annual terms. Tomorrow at 01:50 (GMT+2), statistics on changes in the wage level in Japan will be published, an increase of 1.5% year-on-year is expected. The market will also be influenced by the upcoming data on the index of business activity in the services sector (PMI), which may reflect a slowdown in growth to 52.2 points.Resistance levels: 95.00, 95.50.Support levels: 94.00, 93.50.Gold market analysisAs of September 2, 2024, the price of gold (XAU/USD) is trading at about $2,515 per ounce, showing a moderate increase of 0.45% compared to the previous trading session. Gold continues to move in an uptrend, supported by demand for safe assets in the face of global economic uncertainty and a weakening US dollar.The economic situation in the United States remains a key factor influencing the dynamics of gold. Recent employment data showed that the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% in August 2024, below the forecast of 4.3%. At the same time, the consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.3% month-on-month and 3.2% year-on-year in July, which somewhat eased concerns about inflationary pressures. These data contributed to the strengthening of the dollar, which has a restraining effect on the growth of gold prices.The situation in the international arena also remains tense. The slowdown in economic growth in China and the ongoing geopolitical risks associated with conflicts in the Middle East are supporting the demand for gold as a safe haven asset. Additionally, Chinese industrial production data for August showed a slowdown in growth to 3.9% year-on-year, below the expected 4.2%, reinforcing investors' concerns about the prospects for global economic recovery.Resistance levels: 2510.00, 2525.00, 2540.00, 2555.00.Support levels: 2500.00, 2483.64, 2470.00, ...