EUR/JPY: The Bank of Japan maintains a soft policy amid lower inflationThe EUR/JPY pair is trading around 163.10 as of October 14, which is 0.01% higher compared to the previous trading session. After volatile fluctuations at the beginning of the week, the instrument showed stabilization as traders continue to monitor the economic data of the Eurozone and Japan, assessing the prospects for changes in monetary policy in both countries.In the Eurozone, the economic situation remains under pressure due to a combination of weak industrial growth and low inflation expectations. According to the latest data published by the German Federal Statistical Office, industrial production increased by 1.6% in August, which is higher than forecast and gives a positive signal to the markets. Nevertheless, economic activity in the euro area remains weak: preliminary inflation forecasts for October show a level of 2.2%, which is lower than the average values observed in the first half of the year. The European Central Bank (ECB) is under pressure to take additional stimulus measures, given that economic growth remains below expected. In September, the ECB announced its intention to keep interest rates at the current level to stimulate demand and investment, but analysts do not rule out further easing if inflation remains below the 2.0% target and GDP continues to grow weakly.In Japan, the Bank of Japan maintains a loose monetary policy, while continuing to use low interest rates to stimulate the economy. September data showed a decrease in inflation to 2.5% compared with 3.0% in August, indicating a slowdown in the growth of prices for goods and services. Although inflation in the country is still higher than in previous years, its decline eases the pressure on the central bank to change the current policy course. Japan's main macroeconomic indicators are showing stability, but economists are paying attention to a slowdown in economic activity, which may require additional stimulus measures from the Bank of Japan. Recently, the head of the Bank of Japan noted that the regulator will continue to monitor the situation and is ready to maintain a soft policy to prevent further slowdown in economic growth.Resistance levels: 164.00, 164.80.Support levels: 162.50, 161.90.GBP/NZD: pound is declining, waiting for further signals from the Bank of EnglandThe GBP/NZD pair is trading at 2.0495 as of October 14, showing a steady downward trend with a decrease of 0.23% from the previous session. The market is influenced by the strengthening of the New Zealand dollar, supported by New Zealand's domestic economic data, and expectations for easing UK monetary policy.The economic situation in the UK remains under pressure. The published data showed an increase in unemployment to 4.2%, which is slightly higher than market expectations. The consumer price index (CPI) remained at 6.7% in September, signaling continued pressure on inflation, which may require adjustments in the Bank of England's policy. However, the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, noted that further interest rate increases will depend on the data, and expressed caution about accelerating the tightening policy against the backdrop of an unstable economy. In turn, the indicator of business activity in the service sector (PMI) amounted to 49.3 points, which is lower than the level of the previous month (50.2 points), indicating a decrease in activity in the sector.In New Zealand, the index of business activity in construction increased by 2.1%, which is higher than forecast. The increase in activity is due to increased demand in the infrastructure construction sector, as well as improved performance in the agro-industrial complex. The Central Bank of New Zealand is expected to continue to maintain a steady interest rate as the country's inflation rate fell to 4.9% in annual terms. Against the background of these indicators, the position of the New Zealand dollar remains strong, which puts pressure on the GBP/NZD pair.Resistance levels: 2.0550, 2.0600.Support levels: 2.0450, 2.0400.Silver market analysisSilver (XAG/USD) is trading near the $23.40 level as of October 14, showing an upward trend of 0.42% above the previous session. Against the background of recent economic events, this growth reflects investors' interest in defensive assets, as financial markets are increasingly responding to macroeconomic uncertainty and currency market volatility.Economic and political factors affecting silver include significant support from growing industrial demand. An important driver is the development of green technologies and solar energy, which actively use silver in the production of panels and other components. According to experts, the demand for silver in these sectors has reached 1.2 billion ounces and is projected to continue to grow. In addition, the political situation in the United States and the ongoing discussion of changes in Federal Reserve interest rates have an impact on the dollar. In anticipation of a rate cut by the end of the year, investors view silver as a profitable hedge against inflationary risks and a possible weakening of the dollar.In the global perspective, the silver market is also influenced by other factors, including uncertainty in the mining sector. Leading producers such as Mexico and Peru are reporting lower production, which limits supply in the market. According to Citigroup estimates, under current conditions, silver prices could reach $30 per ounce in the second half of 2024. In addition, investors who pay attention to the ratio of gold and silver see potential for growth, as silver remains relatively undervalued compared to gold. In the coming months, it is expected that with an increase in demand for industrial silver and an improvement in market sentiment, silver will be able to approach the level of $30 per ounce.Resistance levels: $24.10, $25.00.Support levels: $22.80, $21.50.Coffee market analysisCoffee prices on October 14, 2024 stabilized around $ 182.40 per pound, which is 0.52% higher than the previous day. This growth is explained by global economic factors associated with a reduction in the supply of coffee on the world market. The main catalyst for the dynamics of coffee prices is a reduction in yields in key producing countries such as Brazil due to adverse weather conditions. In addition, logistical problems and rising transportation costs add pressure to prices.In Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer, harvest expectations remain below average due to the dry weather in September. According to the latest data, the arabica harvest for 2024 is expected to reach 52 million bags, which is 5% lower than the previous forecast. Moreover, prices for fertilizers and logistics have increased significantly, which further increases the cost of production. Against this background, the Central Bank of Brazil makes comments on inflationary pressures related to agriculture. Interest rates are expected to remain high until the end of the year, which will limit manufacturers' access to loans to expand their capacities.In the global economy, the impact of geopolitical events also has an impact on demand for commodities, including coffee. Increased political instability in the Middle East and trade disputes between China and the United States are contributing to increased uncertainty in financial markets, which affects the demand for coffee in importing countries such as the United States and European Union countries. Nevertheless, demand from China remains stable, as the popularity of coffee drinks among Chinese consumers continues to grow.Resistance levels: 185.00, 187.50.Support levels: 180.00, ...
Technical analysis for the EUR/JPY currency pairOn the daily chart, there was a rebound to the resistance level of 145.65 (near the September high). The pair's recovery above the level of 144.30 makes the bearish picture less obvious, since 144.30 was the upper limit of the range from mid-October 144.30-147.35. The pair's recovery above this level can be considered as a return to the range from mid-October 144.30-147.35, in this case, a decline below 144.30 looks like a false breakdown down. As part of the movement in a narrower range, the growth is likely to continue at the upper limit at 147.35. In the broader perspective, the decline is likely to resume. The sequence of decreasing relative highs and lows is preserved.On the four-hour chart, the level of 144.30 is already a support. The last relative minimum was higher than the previous one, and the decline may have been stopped. The pair has been in the lower half of the range since the second half of October. If the resistance was overcome at 145.65, the next target would be the level of 147.35. According to directional movement indicators, the situation is approximately neutral: a slight excess of DM- over DM+, about when the MACD histogram is in the positive zone and the positive slope of the MACD line. The resistance at 145.65 is strong, and when approaching it, the pair slowed down. This does not support the assumption of a breakout of this level now.Resistance levels: 145.65; 147.35Support levels: 144.30; 142.70Technical analysis for the AUD/USD currency pairOn the daily chart, the pair continued to grow. It is important to consolidate above the "round" level of 0.6700 (at the lows of June and early September). There are no signs of weakening of the upward movement yet. The trend is strengthening, judging by directional movement indicators: the excess of DM+ over DM- is increasing, the MACD histogram is growing in a positive zone, the MACD line has a positive slope. The probability of a rollback now increases the achievement of the goal of the measured movement equal to the size of the head-shoulders model in late September - early November, it was about 300 points, which, with a neck line of 0.6500, corresponds to 0.6800. However, even if there is a correction, in general, continued growth is now preferable.On the four-hour chart, the pair may be approaching the beginning of a correction. Growth will slow down, as can be seen by the decrease in the slope of the chart. The formation of candles with upper shadows near the resistance at 0.6800 and candles close to doji rather indicates a weakening of support for growth. A bearish divergence of the pair's highs and the MACD histogram was formed. There were no significant corrections from 0.6400, and the movement of 400 points without correction is large for the pair. With a pullback, strong support may be at the nearest "round" level of 0.6700.Resistance level: 0.6800Support levels: 0.6760; 0.6700Technical analysis for the GBP/JPY currency pairOn the daily chart, the pair's upward rebound is limited by the resistance level of 165.75. So far, it seems more likely that the decline will continue: the sequence of declines in the relative highs and lows of the pair is not broken, a candle close to a "shooting star" on Tuesday and close (so far) to doji on Wednesday are not characteristic of a reversal. According to directional movement indicators, the trend is downward: DM is above DM+, although at a low ADX level, the MACD histogram is in the negative zone, the MACD line has a negative slope.On the four-hour chart, testing resistance at 165.75 seems to end with a pullback from this level. The pair is located near the short-term trend line (it can also be considered as the lower boundary of the triangle formed by this line and the level of 165.75). The exit of their triangle downwards corresponds to a broader downward trend and would make the level of 163.80 the nearest target (support on November 11-14).Resistance levels: 165.75; 167.60Support levels: 164.50; 163.80Technical analysis for the USD/CAD currency pairOn the daily chart, the decline continued after a sharp decline from 0.6500 (the lower limit of the range since the end of September). The growth stopped at the level of 1.3200, which is the target of the measured movement, based on the head-shoulders model from the end of September, where the breakthrough of 0.6500 was overcoming the neck line. Thus, the probability of an upward rebound increases here. Support at 1.3200 is also strengthened by the fact that the "round" level, and there were highs in late August and early September. A bullish divergence of the lows of the pair and the MACD histogram was formed. Nevertheless, in general, the continuation of the decline is preferable, since the trend is strong. On the four-hour chart, after the decline, the pair stabilized above the "round" level of 1.3200. Now it is in the range of 1.3200-1.3300. According to ADX, the decline is a strong trend: the excess of DM- over DM+ is large at a high level of ADX. The probability of an upward rebound from 1.3200 increases the formation of a previously bullish divergence of the pair's lows and the MACD histogram. Further movement is likely to be in the direction of the pair's exit from the range of 1.32-1.33.Resistance levels: 1.3300; 1.3400Support levels: 1.3200; ...
On the daily chart the pair is going down from the strong resistance level of 147.35, thus this level has strengthened even more, as one more maximum is formed near it. Within the range from the middle of October 144.30-147.35 we should expect decrease to the bottom border, which earlier was the upper border of a wider range.EUR/JPY - Forex Technical Analysis for the EURJPYOn the four-hour chart after consolidation below 147.35 the pair moved downward, and it probably will continue to the lower boundary of the range, at 144.30. Prior to the transition to the reduction, there was a bearish divergence of maximums of the pair and the MACD histogram. On indicators of the directed movement pair passes to decrease: DM- now above DM +, the histogram of MACD decreases already in a negative zone, the MACD line has a weak negative slope.Read more: Using the MACD indicator in forex tradingResistance level: 147,35Support levels: 145,65; ...
On the daily chart, the bounce up from the support level of 144.30 was limited by the strong resistance at 147.35, a level that withstood repeated testing in October. The rise in the pair, however, forms the anticipated 144.30-147.35 range, as both of these boundaries have proven to be strong support and resistance. As part of the move in this range, a decline to the lower boundary at 144.30 seems more likely. If we consider the growth from 144.30 as an upward correction after the pair's exit from the ascending channel from the end of September, with the approach to the previously overcome trend line, the resumption of growth is also more probable.EUR/JPY - Forex Technical Analysis for the EURJPYOn the four-hour chart the pair's decline started before testing the 147.35 level, this increases the probability of a return to the starting point of growth at 144.30, because if the support for growth was strong now, the 147.35 level would be tested. The formation of a small top is another bearish signal.Resistance levels: 147.35Support levels: 145,65; 144,30Read more: Technical analysis on the forex ...