American Express Trading forecasts and signals

They say there is nothing to do at the market in the summer. But not this year. Last week, the reporting season started in the United States. The reports of American companies for the second quarter promise to be interesting. They will summarize the results of the first half of the year and allow you to make forecasts for the second half of 2021.Why follow the reports?The publication of reports allows you to look at the reported company with new eyes — to see it "as for the first time", re-evaluate the prospects for its development and find new objects for investment.Many companies in their reports give forecasts not only for their activities, but also for the development of the sector as a whole, and also share important statistics. This information helps to analyze the prospects of the issuers themselves and the industries in which they operate. The main points that may affect the forecasts of companies this season are the prospects for the global economic recovery, the fiscal policy of the Joe Biden administration, and trade relations between the United States and China.For speculators, the reporting season is interesting with strong movements in the market. Since companies in the United States usually publish reports before or after trading, significant "gaps"often occur at the opening of the trading session after the release of the report.How did the reporting season start?The reporting season in the United States, as usual, began with the publication of the financial results of the banking sector. Five of the six largest banks reported significantly higher than expected and reduced the volume of loan reserves, signaling that the risks associated with the pandemic are receding.In addition to banks, some large companies from other sectors — for example, PepsiCo and Delta Air Lines-managed to report. And companies such as Nike, Micron Technology and Oracle generally report much earlier than the traditional reporting season.This week, investors are waiting for reports from Netflix, Philip Morris, Johnson & Johnson, Coca-Cola, Verizon, Intel, AT&T, Twitter and many other companies.What are the forecasts?According to statistics, in the last five years, in 75% of cases, the reporting of American companies exceeded analysts ' forecasts, and in the 1st quarter of this year, 86% of the reported issuers beat the expectations (this is the maximum level for five years). On the one hand, such high figures may indicate the strength of the US corporate sector, but there is a feeling that companies and analysts are deliberately making too conservative forecasts in order to give shares a boost to growth at the reporting release. From these positions, 85% is more frightening than encouraging figure.According to forecasts, in the second quarter, the percentage of companies whose financial results will be better than expected will be 77-80%. It is also predicted that the consolidated EPS of the S&P 500 index in the second quarter will show an increase of 63.6% y/y and 6.5% q/q.How will the reporting season affect the market?If this reporting season does not bring a big negative, we can expect further growth of the American stock market. If the reports are worse than expected, and the situation with the coronavirus pandemic worsens, or the Fed begins to curtail its stimulus policy, a correction may begin in the market.In general, there are 2-3 companies in each sector of the economy, whose reporting largely sets the tone for the dynamics of shares in the entire sector as a whole.Whose reports are of the greatest interest this week?  Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) On July 20, the second season of “The Witcher” may cause a new rally for the company's shares. The company is also entering the video game market: Netflix has hired Mike Verda, who was developing video games for Facebook's Oculus virtual reality headsets (NASDAQ: FB).Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) On July 21, the main intrigue of this report is how much the company's sales will fall after the episode with Cristiano Ronaldo, who at one of the press conferences removed bottles of Coca-Cola from the table with the words "Drink water!".Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) On July 21, investors will be watching with interest how the company's results were affected by the suspension of sales of its coronavirus vaccine in the United States due to concerns that this vaccination contributes to the formation of blood clots. Recall that in the 1st quarter, the company's profit from sales of the vaccine amounted to $100 million, that is, just over 2% of the total profit.Twitter (NYSE: TWTR) On July 22, Twitter launches a "blue" subscription. Twitter Blue allows you to set a delay of 30 seconds when publishing a message and correct typos before the tweet is published. The subscription also provides access to an improved bookmark system for saved tweets. The subscription price is $2.99 per month.American Airlines (NASDAQ: AAL) On July 22, American Airlines announced an improvement in its forecasts for the results of the second quarter. The airline's forecasts range from a net loss of $35 million to a net profit of $25 million for the quarter.American Express (NYSE: AXP) On July 23, the company is expected to present a strong report, as well as report a decrease in reserves to cover the risks associated with the coronavirus pandemic.How to analyze the reporting? Tips for investorsExamine the reporting calendar and select the reports that you will track. Study the company and the sector in which it operates in advance.Remember: buying shares before the report is released is a big risk, although the market can give you a good premium for your courage.Do not rush to buy paper immediately after the release of the report: study the figures and assess the company's prospects on the short, medium and long time horizon.Compare the published figures with the forecasts of the company itself and independent ...

Warren Buffett got rid of all airline shares. How else has the Oracle of Omaha investment portfolio changed? We look at which stocks are now included in the top ten of the portfolio and whether they were hit by the coronavirusThe news that Warren Buffett has sold all his shares in the airline business has stirred up Wall Street. The COVID-19 pandemic does not give a chance for an early recovery of this sector, the investor said. And, remaining true to his rule of buying only strong companies, he went into the cache.But it's not just airlines that have been affected by the coronavirus outbreak. The fall did not bypass other stocks included in the investment portfolio of the Berkshire Hathaway conglomerate, which Buffett controls. At the beginning of the year, the value of the portfolio was estimated at $256 billion, and now it is about $194.5 billion.1. AppleThe market value of the largest asset in Buffett's portfolio — the technology giant Apple — is almost $76.2 billion (at market closing prices on May 7). The Berkshire Hathaway conglomerate owns a 5.7% stake in the iPhone manufacturer.As of December 31, 2019, Apple's stake in the portfolio was estimated at almost $71.9 billion. Now it is worth about $76.2 billion. It turns out that Apple's securities have already managed to recover from the coronavirus collapse — the value of the Apple package in the portfolio increased by $4.3 billion.According to the consensus forecast of the Refinitiv service, Apple shares have almost exhausted their growth potential. Nevertheless, the majority of experts recommend buying securities — 29 out of 39 respondents. And only three advise to get rid of them.2. Bank of AmericaBank of America is the largest financial asset of Buffett's company. Berkshire Hathaway owns a 10.9% stake in the bank. The value of this stake is currently about $21.6 billion, while at the beginning of the year the asset was worth almost $32.6 billion.Bank of America securities grew well throughout the past year — from January 2019 to mid-February 2020, they rose by almost 43%. But as a result of the market collapse due to the pandemic, the bank's shares lost 49%. In mid-March, they were given no more than $18 apiece for them.Industry analysts predict the growth of Bank of America shares. According to Refinitiv, the potential is more than 15%. Of the 26 analysts surveyed, 15 recommend buying bank shares, and the remaining 11 recommend continuing to hold previously purchased securities.3. Coca-ColaWarren Buffett has owned shares of the oldest American manufacturer of soft drinks Coca-Cola for more than 30 years, since 1988. Over the years, the investor has accumulated securities worth $17.84 billion. Berkshire Hathaway currently owns 9.3% of the cola manufacturer.Does owning this business justify itself? At the beginning of the year, the value of the Coca-Cola stake was $21.4 billion, today it is about $17.84 billion, that is, the asset has depreciated by almost $3.6 billion in four months. Now the securities are almost close to the level of January 2019, but they are still 19% cheaper than at the beginning of 2020.Shares of Buffett's favorite - Coca-Cola - may rise in price by 12.7% during the year, to $52, according to analysts surveyed by the Refinitiv service. Of the 22 respondents, 16 recommended buying securities, and six more recommended keeping them in a portfolio.4. American ExpressAnother financial asset in the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio is American Express. The company is known worldwide for its credit cards and traveler's checks. Buffett's company owns 18.8% of the capital of American Express.Over the past four months, the American Express package in the Berkshire Hathaway investment portfolio has depreciated by $5.72 billion. As a result of the "coronavirus" fall, which began at the end of February, securities collapsed by 51% in a month. The shares recovered most of these losses — from the end of March to May 7, their value increased by 30%.Wall Street analysts continue to believe in American Express. Industry experts predict the growth of securities during the year by 13.4%, to $100.52. Half of the respondents (14 out of 28) recommend buying shares, 13 experts adhere to the hold recommendation, and only one analyst advises selling securities.5. Kraft HeinzAmong the ten largest assets in the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio is a stake in Kraft Heinz. Warren Buffett owns 26.7% of the ketchup manufacturer. The value of the asset for four months decreased by $1.07 billion.A year ago, Warren Buffett admitted that he had greatly overpaid for Kraft Heinz. Since then, the shares of the food holding company have become even cheaper — they have fallen by 33% over the past 16 months. Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, the fall in securities has intensified, but since the market began to recover from a strong collapse in mid-March, the shares have managed to reduce losses in price. As a result, the decrease in securities since the beginning of this year amounted to 10.3%.According to the consensus forecast of Refinitiv, the securities of the American food holding may rise by 4.5% during the year, to $30.79 per piece.6. Wells FargoThe third largest financial asset of Berkshire Hathaway is Wells Fargo Bank. Berkshire Hathaway's share in the bank's capital is 8.5%. This is 4.48% of the value of the entire investment portfolio.In the four months of 2020, the value of Wells Fargo in Buffett's portfolio has halved — from $17.38 billion to $8.72 billion. Securities fell by 53.1% against the background of the coronavirus pandemic.According to Refinitiv surveys, Wells Fargo's quotes may rise by 25.7% to $32.07 in the next 12 months. 17 analysts recommend holding shares in portfolios. Only three analysts advise buying Wells Fargo securities, and seven give a recommendation for sale.7. Moody'sMoody's asset is one of the oldest in Buffett's investment portfolio. The holding first invested in it in 2001. Now the package of the international rating agency has more than 24.6 million shares. Berkshire Hathaway's share in Moody's capital exceeds 13%.The rating agency's share price doubled from January 2019 to February 2020 — from $140 to $287 per share. But then the "coronavirus" collapse deprived the paper of 42% of its value. But even with this in mind, the company's shares have grown by 4.3% since the beginning of the year. And their value in Buffett's portfolio increased from $5.85 billion to $6.11 billion.The securities exceeded all Wall Street expectations and are now trading 3.8% above the annual target set by the Refinitiv consensus. At the same time, none of the analysts surveyed gives a recommendation to sell. And the recommendations buy and hold are equally in the consensus.8. JP Morgan ChaseThe fourth financial asset in the portfolio is one of the largest American investment banks, JP Morgan. As of December 31, 2019, Berkshire Hathaway had more than 60 million shares of JP Morgan worth $8.3 billion in its portfolio. But this package has significantly devalued since the beginning of the year — by May 7, its value fell by $2.82 billion, to $5.48 billion.Since January 2019, JP Morgan shares have been growing until February 19, 2020. But on the general wave of the falling market, the securities fell by 44%. Now the bank's shares are recovering, but their price is still 34.6% lower compared to the beginning of the year.Refinitiv's consensus forecast is optimistic: JP Morgan shares are expected to grow by 13.6%, to $105.42. But only 12 out of 26 analysts recommend buying securities, 13 advise keeping them in portfolios, and one recommends selling them.9. U.S.BancorpIn the top ten of Warren Buffett's portfolio, there is a stake in U.S. Bancorp, the fifth largest US bank by assets. Berkshire Hathaway conglomerate owns 9.9% of the financial holding company. Since the beginning of the year, when the asset was estimated at $7.85 billion, its value has fallen by $2.72 billion.U.S. Bancorp shares rose by almost 30% in 2019, but since the beginning of 2020 they have lost all this growth, falling by 42.3% against the background of the general market collapse.Analysts positively assess the holding's securities — the Refinitiv consensus forecast indicates a potential of 19.5% - up to $41.33 for the next year. If the papers have already been purchased, then they should be kept in a briefcase. Recommendations for the purchase of U.S. Bancorp shares were given by seven experts, for the sale — by four.10. Bank of New York MellonA block of shares of Bank of New York Mellon (1.5% of the value of the entire portfolio) displaced shares of another American bank — Goldman Sachs (1.21% of the portfolio value) from the top ten assets of the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio.Buffett's company owns 10% of the capital of Bank of New York Mellon. Since the beginning of the year, the package has depreciated by $1.36 billion. The bank's shares have started to decline in price since the beginning of the year, losing about 30% of their value.Wall Street analysts give a positive outlook on Bank of New York Mellon securities. During the year, the shares can rise by more than 20%, up to $43, according to experts surveyed by Refinitiv. Seven of them recommend buying bank shares, nine — holding already purchased securities, and one — selling.SummaryBerkshire Hathaway's investment portfolio has depreciated by 24%, or $61.5 billion, since the beginning of the year. If on December 31, 2019, its cost was $256 billion, then on May 7-a little more than $194.5 billion.An analysis of the dynamics of the top 10 stocks in the portfolio shows that all securities, with the exception of Kraft Heinz shares, grew during 2019. Their growth was interrupted by an outbreak of coronavirus, which caused a global market collapse from mid-February to mid-March this year. Only two stocks from the top 10 - Apple and Moody's — managed to recover losses after the so-called "coronavirus" fall and show positive dynamics since the beginning of the year.Read more: How to invest in stocks and what you need to knowThere was only one change in the top 10 assets of Buffett's portfolio — Goldman Sachs lost the tenth position to Bank of New York Mellon.Compared to the beginning of the year, Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio has four fewer shares. In April, Warren Buffett sold all shares in American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, United Airlines and Southwest Airlines. However, none of the airlines was included in the top ten assets of the portfolio, so the sale of the air transportation business did not affect the total value of the largest assets of the ...