Coffee Trading forecasts and signals

EUR/CAD: the rate cut in Canada strengthened the position of the euroAs of August 22, 2024, the EUR/CAD currency pair is showing a steady upward trend, continuing to strengthen against the background of a weakening Canadian dollar and a moderately positive economic situation in the eurozone. The pair is trading around 1.5130 CAD, reflecting the strengthening of the euro against the background of the weakening of the Canadian currency.The economic situation in the eurozone looks stable, despite the continuing inflation risks. Recent data show that inflation in the euro area fell to 2.4% in March 2024, but core inflation remains at about 4%, which creates some pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) in terms of maintaining tight monetary policy. At the same time, economic activity in the service sector is showing signs of recovery, in contrast to manufacturing, which continues to stagnate. Economic growth in the eurozone is expected to resume at a moderate pace in the coming months.The Canadian dollar continues to be under pressure amid domestic economic problems. The recent interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada, linked to attempts to stimulate a slowing economy, has led to a weakening of the currency. Inflation expectations in Canada remain relatively stable, but slower growth and lower commodity prices, especially oil, have a negative impact on the currency. Technical analysis also indicates the predominance of bearish sentiment in the EUR/CAD pair, which is confirmed by oversold signals and the intersection of key resistance levels.Resistance levels: 1.5150, 1.5260.Support levels: 1.5070, 1.5000.AUD/CHF: Franc strengthening amid uncertainty in AustraliaAs of August 22, 2024, the AUD/CHF currency pair shows a weakening of the Australian dollar against the Swiss franc, trading around 0.5900 CHF. The pair is under pressure amid economic uncertainty in Australia and the strengthening of the Swiss franc.The economic situation in Australia remains difficult. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left the key rate at 4.35% at the last meeting, but risks of further rate hikes remain due to high inflation expectations. Despite a slight decrease in the quarterly inflation rate, the data did not meet market expectations, which increased pressure on AUD. The publication of business activity indices (PMI) also indicated a continued decline in activity in the manufacturing sector, which negatively affected the Australian dollar.The Swiss franc, on the contrary, remains stable due to the cautious monetary policy of the Swiss National Bank (SNB). The expected change of the head of the bank probably will not lead to significant policy changes, which supports investors' confidence in the stability of the franc. Additionally, the Swiss franc continues to win as a safe haven currency amid global economic uncertainty, which also supports its strengthening.Resistance levels: 0.5950, 0.6000.Support levels: 0.5850, 0.5800.GBP/NZD: the Bank of England's rate cut has increased pressure on the poundAs of Thursday, August 22, the GBP/NZD currency pair is trading around 2.0629 NZD, which is 0.03% lower compared to the previous trading session. The pair is showing a slight decline amid growing concerns about the prospects for the UK economy and the stabilization of the situation in New Zealand.The economic situation in the UK remains tense. At a recent meeting, the Bank of England decided to reduce the interest rate by 25 basis points to 5%, which was a response to a slowdown in growth and a decrease in inflation, which, according to the latest data, amounted to 5.31% year-on-year in August. Despite this, the market expects further rate cuts, which may weaken the pound's position in the coming months. The decline in business activity, especially in the manufacturing sector, is also putting pressure on the GBP.New Zealand, on the contrary, demonstrates resilience due to a stable economic situation and moderate inflation. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) left the key rate unchanged at 5.5%, which supports the exchange rate of the New Zealand dollar. Economic activity in the country remains stable despite global economic challenges. Moderate inflation and stable monetary policy of RBNZ support the New Zealand dollar, which allows it to strengthen its position against the British pound.Resistance levels: 2.0660, 2.0720.Support levels: 2.0580, 2.0520.Coffee market analysisAs of August 22, the price of coffee is showing steady growth against the background of global supply constraints and increasing demand, especially in Asian countries. At the moment, the price of coffee is trading around $2.15 per pound, which is 1.8% higher compared to the previous trading session. This growth is driven by a number of factors, including adverse weather conditions in key producing countries and the growing popularity of coffee in developing Asia.The economic situation in Brazil and Colombia, the two largest coffee producers, continues to have an impact on the market. In Brazil, drought and the spread of diseases such as coffee rust have reduced yields, resulting in a 5% decrease in supply compared to last year. In Colombia, political instability and economic difficulties have also led to a reduction in production, which puts pressure on world prices. These factors create tension in the market, which pushes prices up.At the same time, the growing demand for coffee in Asia, especially in countries such as China, India and Japan, continues to support high prices. Urbanization and the growth of the middle class are contributing to an increase in coffee consumption in the region. In China, the coffee market continues to grow at double-digit rates, and the number of cafes has increased by 58% over the past year, making it the largest market in terms of the number of points of sale in the world.Resistance levels: $2.20, $2.25.Support levels: $2.10, ...

EUR/USD: the stability of the dollar restrains the strengthening of the euroAs of August 19, 2024, the EUR/USD currency pair is trading near the level of 1.0905, showing weak dynamics against the background of conflicting economic data from the eurozone and the United States. The pair is under pressure, trying to overcome key resistance levels, but has not yet shown steady growth.The economic situation in the eurozone remains difficult. Recent data indicate a slowdown in economic growth in Germany and France, which raises concerns among investors. The eurozone's GDP is projected to grow by only 0.6% in 2024, which is lower than expected for the United States. The European Central Bank (ECB) is signaling a possible easing of monetary policy, which could lead to lower interest rates in the coming months. This pressure on the euro is due to the fact that inflation in the region is declining slowly, despite the targeted efforts of the central bank.On the other hand, the US economy is showing more steady growth. Although inflation is slowing, the labor market remains strong, which supports expectations for further tight policy by the Federal Reserve System (FRS). Despite the decline in GDP growth to 1.6%, the Fed still maintains its key rate at 5.25-5.50%, which makes the dollar more attractive to investors. This, in turn, puts pressure on the EUR/USD pair, limiting its growth opportunities.Resistance levels: 1.0940, 1.1000.Support levels: 1.0850, 1.0800.GBP/JPY: the pair is growing due to the stability of the pound and the weakness of the yenAs of August 19, 2024, the GBP/JPY currency pair is trading around the 188.50 mark, showing moderate strengthening. The pair is moving up after the publication of employment data in the UK and the continued weakness of the Japanese yen.The economic situation in the UK remains tense, although it shows some signs of stabilization. Recent data on the UK labor market showed a decrease in the unemployment rate, which caused cautious optimism among investors. At the same time, inflation in the country remained below forecasts, which may limit the Bank of England's ability to further raise interest rates. Nevertheless, the central bank continues to keep rates high to cope with inflationary risks, which supports the British pound.By contrast, the Japanese yen remains under pressure amid domestic economic problems. The Japanese economy is facing difficulties related to low domestic demand and a weak manufacturing sector. Despite the unexpected rate hike by the Bank of Japan at the beginning of the month, the yen continues to remain under pressure due to global uncertainty and economic weakness. This creates the prerequisites for further growth of the GBP/JPY pair.Resistance levels: 189.00, 190.50.Support levels: 187.50, 186.00.AUD/NZD: New Zealand dollar strengthens against the background of RBNZ's tough policyOn August 19, 2024, the AUD/NZD currency pair is trading at 1.1015, showing a moderate decline against the background of various economic factors in Australia and New Zealand. The pair is moving in a downtrend, which is associated with increased economic pressure on the Australian dollar.The economic situation in Australia remains tense. Recent inflation data show its growth above the expected level, which forces the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to consider further tightening of monetary policy. Despite this, weak domestic demand and low consumer confidence are putting pressure on the Australian dollar, limiting its potential for growth. Additionally, the slowdown in economic growth in China, which is Australia's key trading partner, also has a negative impact on AUD.On the other hand, the New Zealand dollar is strengthening thanks to the latest decisions of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), which kept the rate at 5.25% and expressed its intention to continue to maintain a tight monetary policy in the near future. Stable inflation and GDP growth indicators contribute to the strengthening of the NZD, making it more attractive to investors. The economic situation in New Zealand remains stable, despite the increase in the unemployment rate, which provides additional support to the New Zealand dollar.Resistance levels: 1.1050, 1.1100.Support levels: 1.0980, 1.0930.Coffee market overviewAs of August 19, 2024, coffee prices continue to fluctuate in a volatile market, reaching $2.15 per pound of Arabica. This movement is linked to a number of key factors, including global climatic conditions and economic changes in coffee-producing countries such as Brazil and Vietnam.The economic situation in Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer, has a significant impact on prices. The strengthening of the Brazilian real against the US dollar, observed in recent months, is contributing to an increase in coffee prices, as Brazilian exporters prefer to hold stocks in anticipation of more favorable conditions. In addition, unstable weather, including droughts and extreme temperatures, continues to negatively affect crops, further limiting supply on the global market.On the other hand, the demand for coffee remains steady, especially in the regions of Asia and Europe, where the popularity of organic and certified coffees continues to grow. This trend is supported by changes in consumer preferences towards more environmentally friendly products, which encourages manufacturers to invest in sustainable development and certification.Resistance levels: $2.20, $2.30.Support levels: $2.10, ...

GBP/JPY: the yen weakened due to the soft policy of the Bank of JapanAs of August 13, 2024, the GBP/JPY currency pair is showing steady growth, trading near the level of 189.27, which is 0.80% higher compared to the previous day. This movement is driven by several key factors, including economic and political developments in the UK and Japan.The economic and political situation in the UK continues to have a significant impact on the pound sterling (GBP). Yesterday's comments from representatives of the Bank of England (BoE) indicate continuing concerns about inflation, which supports expectations of further interest rate hikes. Additionally, the latest data on the UK economy, including a slowdown in GDP growth, are worrying against the background of a possible slowdown in the economy, but at the same time stimulate the BoE's caution in making rate decisions. This creates pressure on the pound, but continued optimism about its future strength supports it against the yen.On the Japanese side, the yen (JPY) continues to weaken due to the sustained soft monetary policy of the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Despite discussions on the possibility of adjusting interest rates, the BoJ continues to maintain ultra-low rates, which puts pressure on the yen. Additionally, the weakness of the Japanese economy, associated with low domestic demand and slowing exports, also contributes to the weakening of the JPY. As a result, traders prefer to sell the yen, which leads to an increase in the GBP/JPY pair.Resistance levels: 190.00, 191.50.Support levels: 188.00, 186.50.AUD/NZD: the pair is declining amid expectations of the RBNZ meetingAs of August 13, 2024, the AUD/NZD currency pair shows a slight decrease, trading around 1.0929, which is 0.05% lower compared to the previous close. The pair's move comes against the backdrop of the upcoming meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), which will be a key event this week.The economic situation in Australia remains difficult. Recent data on the consumer price index and retail sales indicate a slowdown in economic activity. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to take a cautious approach to changing interest rates, which puts pressure on the Australian dollar (AUD). It is expected that the published data on consumer confidence and wage growth will also not provide significant support for AUD, given the current economic conditions.On the other hand, the New Zealand dollar (NZD) remains under market scrutiny ahead of the RBNZ decision. At the moment, the central bank of New Zealand is likely to keep the interest rate at 5.5% for the ninth meeting in a row. However, the ongoing economic uncertainty and the risk of a possible rate cut in the future continue to have an impact on the NZD. Strong labor market indicators and stable inflation play into the hands of the New Zealand dollar, but the market is anxiously awaiting further steps by RBNZ.Resistance levels: 1.0975, 1.1028.Support levels: 1.0880, 1.0844.Platinum market analysisAs of August 13, 2024, the price of platinum continues to remain under pressure, trading around the $920 per ounce mark, which is close to the lows recorded since the beginning of April. The decline in platinum prices is due to several key factors, including a decrease in demand from the automotive industry and an increase in the volume of recycling of secondary raw materials.The economic situation in the world has a negative impact on the demand for platinum, especially in the automotive industry, which is the largest consumer of this metal. Slowing car sales amid global economic problems is reducing demand for platinum, despite stricter environmental regulations. Automakers are switching to using cheaper palladium to meet emissions requirements, which further reduces the need for platinum.In addition, there is a decrease in investor interest. In recent years, the volume of investments in platinum through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has decreased by more than 20%, due to rising interest rates and competition from other precious metals such as palladium and rhodium. The strengthening of the US dollar is also putting pressure on platinum prices, making it more expensive for foreign buyers.Resistance levels: $950, $1000.Support levels: $900, $880.Coffee market analysisAs of August 13, 2024, coffee prices continue to show increased volatility, trading around $2.33 per pound of Arabica, reflecting a 2.1% increase since the end of July. The main factors influencing the cost of coffee are weather conditions and changes in global supply.The economic situation in key producing countries such as Brazil and Vietnam has a significant impact on the market. In Brazil, the effects of the dry season in the Minas Gerais region are continuing, which has led to a decrease in crop forecasts for 2024/25. At the same time, Vietnam, the largest producer of robusta, is increasing production volumes, which may ease pressure on robusta prices, but continues to support Arabica prices. Despite the increase in supply, prices remain high due to concerns about the future harvest amid the continuing risk of climatic anomalies such as El Nino.On the other hand, the demand for coffee is also growing, especially against the background of the trend towards a healthy lifestyle and the preference for natural drinks among consumers. This supports a steady demand for Arabica, despite rising prices. However, a possible global economic downturn could weaken consumption and affect overall demand, which is also an important factor for future prices.Resistance levels: $2.40, $2.50.Support levels: $2.25, ...

GBP/CAD: stabilization of the Canadian dollar puts pressure on the poundThe GBP/CAD pair is correcting after a bearish start to the week, trading at 1.7520, updating the lows of the last few days.Despite recent attempts by the British pound to strengthen, the GBP/CAD pair continues to face pressure from the Canadian dollar. One of the key factors is the decision of the Bank of Canada to keep interest rates at the current level, which was perceived by markets as a signal of stabilization of the Canadian economy. This, in turn, supported the CAD's position against the background of the general weakness of the pound caused by uncertainty about the UK's economic prospects.In addition, despite the fact that inflation is rising in the UK, which usually supports the currency, the current economic situation remains difficult. Forecasts point to possible further fluctuations in the GBP/CAD pair, especially in the context of continued instability in the markets and expectations of possible adjustments in the policies of the central banks of both countries.Resistance levels: 1.7600, 1.7750.Support levels: 1.7400, 1.7250.AUD/JPY: geopolitical risks are holding back the pair's growthThe AUD/JPY pair is correcting after a volatile start to the week, trading near the 96.00 level.The Australian dollar strengthened thanks to the "hawkish" comments of the head of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Michelle Bullock, who announced her readiness to raise interest rates if necessary. This has become a key factor that has supported the growth of AUD/JPY over the past three days. However, the pair is having difficulty consolidating above the 96.00 level, as market participants remain cautious amid a possible slowdown in the US economy and geopolitical risks associated with conflicts in the Middle East and economic problems in China.On the other hand, the yen gained support after the Bank of Japan published the opinion of some members on the possibility of further rate hikes and normalization of monetary policy. This limits the growth potential of the AUD/JPY pair, adding to the general uncertainty in the market. In the near future, the focus of market participants will be on inflation data in China, which may have a significant impact on the dynamics of the AUD/JPY pair.Resistance levels: 96.50, 97.00.Support levels: 94.70, 94.00.Gold market analysisGold is correcting after a volatile start to the week, trading at $2,326 per ounce as of August 9, 2024. Despite the general increase in gold prices during the year, the current market situation remains unstable.The rise in US Treasury bond yields to 3.9% and the strengthening of the US dollar are putting pressure on gold. At the same time, concerns about a possible recession scenario in the United States after the publication of a weak labor market report increased demand for protective assets, including gold. However, analysts point out that the panic in the market may be somewhat exaggerated, and global demand for gold remains high due to ongoing geopolitical risks and the soft monetary policy of most central banks.Analysts predict that in the coming months gold will trade in the range of $2,300 - $2,400 per ounce, with key support levels at $2,345 and $2,330. In case of increased inflationary pressure or aggravation of geopolitical conflicts, further price increases to $2,500 per ounce are possible.Resistance levels: $2,400, $2,450.Support levels: $2,345, $2,330.Cocoa market analysisCocoa quotes are correcting after a volatile start to the week, trading at around $3,300 per tonne as of August 9, 2024. Despite the general increase in prices during the year, the cocoa market faced a number of challenges.Recent data indicate a significant decline in cocoa production in Ivory Coast, the largest producer of this raw material in the world. A 28% decrease in exports compared to the previous year caused prices to rise to multi-month highs at the beginning of the week. However, the latest reports from Cameroon, which showed an annual production growth of 1.2%, caused a sharp price correction down by 4.75%. In addition, global cocoa stocks continue to decline, which supports high prices against the background of an expected supply shortage until the end of 2024. This is also due to adverse weather conditions in West Africa, which may affect future harvests.Analysts predict that cocoa prices will remain volatile in the coming months. In case of further deterioration of weather conditions or political instability in the producing countries, prices may continue to rise. At the same time, any improvement in production and exports may trigger short-term downward corrections.Resistance levels: $3,350, $3,400.Support levels: $3,250, ...

EUR/AUD: economic concerns in Australia and Germany affect the pairThe EUR/AUD pair is correcting after a volatile start to the week, trading at 1.6840 and updating the lows of recent days.Despite attempts by the euro to strengthen, macroeconomic data did not provide sufficient support. In June, German industrial production fell by 1.5% compared to the previous month, which was unexpected for analysts who had expected an increase of 0.5%. At the same time, inflation in the Eurozone remains at a high level, which increases pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to further tighten monetary policy.On the other hand, Australia's macroeconomic indicators also raise concerns. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left the interest rate at 4.10%, which was expected by the market. However, economic activity in the country is showing signs of slowing down, especially in the construction sector, where the business activity index fell to 47.9 points, indicating a reduction in activity. This creates additional challenges for the Australian economy, despite high commodity prices, which traditionally support AUD.Resistance levels: 1.6900, 1.7000.Support levels: 1.6750, 1.6600.GBP/NZD: UK unemployment rate rises to 4.3%The GBP/NZD pair is correcting after a bearish start to the week, trading at 2.1189 and updating recent lows.Despite attempts by the pound to strengthen, macroeconomic data did not provide sufficient support. In the UK, the unemployment rate increased to 4.3% from 4.1% last month, which caused concern among investors. Inflation in the country remains high, which puts additional pressure on the Bank of England in terms of tightening monetary policy. In turn, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left the interest rate at 5.5%, which was expected by the market, but this did not lead to a significant strengthening of the New Zealand dollar.Analysts predict that in the coming weeks, the GBP/NZD pair will trade in the range of 2.1000-2.1300. Despite the weak macroeconomic data, the pound may receive support in the event of an improvement in economic conditions in the UK or an increase in negative economic data in New Zealand. Investors are also closely monitoring the actions of central banks, which may significantly affect the further dynamics of the currency pair.Resistance levels: 2.1300, 2.1450.Support levels: 2.1000, 2.0850.Palladium market analysisPalladium is correcting after a volatile start to the week, trading at $925.15 per ounce as of August 8, 2024.Despite steady demand from the automotive sector, the global palladium market continues to experience significant fluctuations in 2024. In the first half of the year, palladium prices reached an annual low of $859.15 per ounce in February, but then recovered to $963.50 at the end of June. In July, the price declined again, reaching $881.00, due to the high level of volatility and instability in the global economy. The demand for palladium in the automotive industry remains a key factor influencing the price of the metal. According to the World Platinum Investment Council, demand in the automotive sector will remain stable at 8.45 million ounces in 2024. At the same time, the total supply of palladium, including extraction and processing, will be about 10.03 million ounces, which leads to relative stability in the market.Analysts predict that palladium prices may fluctuate in the range of $900-$1,000 per ounce in the coming months. It is expected that an increase in supply due to recycling and stable demand from the automotive industry will support the market. Nevertheless, possible changes in the global economy and geopolitical instability may continue to affect the price of palladium.Resistance levels: 950, 1000.Support levels: 900, 880.Coffee market analysisThe coffee market on the commodity exchange shows interesting dynamics on August 8, 2024. The coffee trade remains active despite a number of economic and political factors influencing the quotes.Despite the increase in global demand for coffee, quotes continue to experience volatility. First of all, this is due to a change in consumer preferences and the growing popularity of specialty coffees. The European market accounts for a significant share of global coffee consumption, especially in countries such as Germany, France and Italy. The demand for high-quality coffee and specialty varieties continues to grow, which supports prices in the market. According to the latest data, the global coffee market is estimated at US$161.66 billion and is expected to grow to US$ 207.07 billion by 2032. The growth of the market is supported by an increase in the number of coffee shops and cafes, especially in the Asia-Pacific region, where the influence of Western culture is increasing and the young population is actively adopting new consumption trends.Political instability in some coffee-producing countries, such as Brazil and Colombia, also affects supply and, consequently, prices. For example, policy changes, the introduction of trade barriers and currency fluctuations can significantly affect exports and domestic coffee prices. Analysts predict that coffee prices may fluctuate in the coming months depending on weather conditions in the growing regions, political stability in the producing countries and global economic trends. It is expected that the growth in demand for organic and specialty coffee will continue, which will support the market in the long term.Resistance levels: 950, 1000.Support levels: 900, ...

Raw material prices are rising. When the global economy recovers, how long can the boom last?Doug King created his hedge fund at the dawn of the commodity supercycle in 2004. It was just in time: due to insatiable demand from China, prices for everything from oil to copper rose to record highs. Investors flooded the commodity sector. At the peak of sales, King's Merchant Commodity Fund managed approximately $2 billion.But the boom suddenly stopped after the global financial crisis of 2008 and the beginning of the shale revolution in the United States. Prices have fallen, big institutional money has come out, and many specialized hedge funds have closed.Fast forward more than ten years. For King, one of the best periods of his career has begun: a massive boom in raw materials has lifted his hedge fund by almost 50% this year, as commodities, from steel to soybeans, have reached multi-year highs. And now everyone, from pension funds to individuals who sell commodities, makes money from them. And the only question is whether this is a temporary phenomenon after the pandemic or a signal for longer-term changes in the structure of the world economy."We are experiencing a structural inflation shock," King said. "There is a lot of pent-up demand, and everyone wants everything now, right now."For the first time since the pre-crisis years until 2008, the commodity boom means that central banks are concerned about inflation. The rally will also have a political impact.With an oil price of about $70 per barrel, Saudi Arabia and Russia are once again leading the global energy market – a remarkable return after negative prices just over a year ago. The boom is also an undesirable phenomenon for politicians who are resisting the climate crisis: rising commodity prices will make the transition more expensive.China, which depends on imported raw materials to supply millions of factories and construction sites, is so nervous that the government has tried to lower prices by threatening speculators. To some extent, this worked, as copper lost its positions achieved this year. But on average, prices remain high: iron ore is still close to a record, steel prices in the US have tripled this year, coal has risen to a 13-year high, and natural gas prices are rising.Even after the recent pullback, the Bloomberg Commodities Spot Index, which takes into account the prices of 22 commodities, rose by 78% compared to the minimum of March 2020.And crude oil, the most important commodity in the global economy, showed significant growth this year. This prompted traders and Wall Street banks to talk again about the possibility that prices will exceed $100 per barrel for the first time since 2014.As prices rose, so did Wall Street's interest. The annual Robin Hood Investor Conference, which brings together hedge fund luminaries every year, from Paul Tudor Jones to Stanley F. Druckenmiller and Ray Dalio, in early June, included a discussion on commodities. For the first time in the last five years, the conference was given time to discuss commodities.Jeff Curry, a veteran commodity researcher at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., who advocates a long-term bull market for commodities despite the recent sell-off in metals and grains, says there is room for significant investment in the market."Commodities are back in fashion," Curry said. Despite the hype due to sky-high prices, the sector was not able to attract large cash flows, as it was during the boom of 2004-2011.Those investors and traders who have already invested in commodities, betting on recovery after the pandemic, were able to make a profit.Take, for example, Cargill Inc. The world's largest agricultural commodities trader made more money in just the first nine months of the fiscal year than in any full year in its history, as net profit exceeded $4 billion.Or Trafigura Group. It is the second-largest independent oil trader in the world, whose net profit of more than $2 billion in the six months to the end of March was almost the same as for the previous best full year."Our core sales units are operating at full capacity," said Jeremy Weir, chief executive of Trafigura.However, for consumers, the commodity boom means memories of high inflation. For now, companies are mostly taking the brunt of the impact, pushing manufacturing inflation in some countries, including China, to its highest level in more than a decade. But sooner or later, consumers will also pay for it.Companies, from Unilever Plc to Procter & Gamble Co., announced plans to raise prices in the near future."We are seeing levels of commodity inflation that we haven't seen in a very long time," Graham Pitketley, Unilever's chief financial officer, told investors after the release of first – quarter results. "The commodity inflation that we are seeing affects all companies."The speed and scope of this rally, which affected dozens of raw materials from vegetable oil to coal, prompted many to talk about a new commodity supercycle, similar to the one that began almost two decades ago, when China's rapid industrialization changed the structure of the world economy. economy.Economists usually define a supercycle as a period of abnormally high demand that oil companies, mining companies and farmers are struggling to meet, causing a rally that lasts longer than the usual business cycle. Before China, the century of modern history witnessed three different commodity supercycles, each of which was caused by a transformational socio-economic event. The industrialization of the United States gave rise to the first in the early 1900s, global rearmament gave rise to the second in the 1930s, and the recovery of Europe and Japan after World War II gave rise to the third in the 1950s and 1960s.The appearance of the fifth supercycle would be a big event. The price rally confirms the talk of a new boom: the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index, consisting of 23 commodities, is almost 500 points, which corresponds to the peaks of 2007-08 and 2010-11. And yet, what is more likely is that the world is still experiencing the impact of a China-led supercycle, which is now loaded with contradictory economic shifts caused by the coronavirus pandemic.Change in the value of commodities in one year The speed and scope of this rally, which affected dozens of raw materials, from vegetable oil to coal, prompted many to talk about a new commodity supercycle, similar to the one that began almost two decades ago, when China's rapid industrialization changed the structure of the world economy.Economists usually define a supercycle as a period of abnormally high demand that oil companies, mining companies and farmers are struggling to meet, causing a rally that lasts longer than the usual business cycle. Before China, the century of modern history witnessed three different commodity supercycles, each of which was caused by a transformational socio-economic event.The industrialization of the United States gave rise to the first supercycle in the early 1900s, global rearmament gave rise to another in the 1930s, and the recovery of Europe and Japan after World War II gave rise to a third in the 1950s and 1960s.The appearance of the fifth supercycle would be a big event. The price rally confirms the talk of a new boom: the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index, consisting of 23 commodities, is almost 500 points, which corresponds to the peaks of 2007-08 and 2010-11. But it is more likely that the world is still under the influence of a super cycle led by China, which is now being spurred by the contradictory economic changes caused by the coronavirus pandemic.Initially, Covid was bad news for commodity demand. The world was locked up, travel was reduced, factories were closed. The price of everything from oil to copper followed consumption, falling sharply between March and May last year. But after the first few months, the world began to get back on its feet, and consumption patterns changed towards commodities.To understand what happened, it is necessary to understand the typical relationship between the demand for goods and well-being. As a rule, poor countries consume little raw materials, because most of the costs go to meet basic needs, such as food and housing.The optimal place for commodities is countries with a per capita income of $4,000 to $18,000 – the average income range that China entered in the early 2000s. This disproportionately affects the demand for commodities, since it depends on the level of urbanization and industrialization of countries. With this range of per capita income, families have the money to buy cars, household appliances and other goods that require a lot of raw materials.Industrially developing countries are also building railways, highways, hospitals and other public infrastructure.The demand for goods above $20,000 per capita begins to decline as the wealthier segments of the population spend the increase in wealth on services such as better education, health care and recreation.The coronavirus pandemic has changed this dynamic. Since many families are isolated, spending is shifting from services to goods, even in the wealthiest countries, such as the United States. In many ways, American and European consumers have been behaving in the same way as the population of developing countries for several months, spending money on buying various goods, from new bicycles to televisions.The US economy is the best example of this trend. Overall consumer spending remains below the trends of 2018-19, but this hides a huge discrepancy between spending on goods and services. According to the Peterson Institute for International Economics, household spending on goods is currently 11% higher than the level observed before the pandemic.  At the same time, spending on services such as recreation, restaurants or entertainment remains 7% lower than before the appearance of the coronavirus."Ultra-accommodative monetary policy, unprecedented fiscal stimulus, pent-up demand, strong household balance sheets and record savings all together paint a picture of a steady and confident growth trajectory," said Saad Rahim, chief economist at Trafigura. Fiscal stimulus has other parallels with emerging markets, as Western governments target infrastructure spending by promising to rebuild highways, railways and bridges.Governments are also striving to build a greener future in order to abandon fossil fuels. Although this is bad news for the coal and oil markets, it means an increase in demand for raw materials such as copper, aluminum and battery metals such as cobalt and lithium, which are key to the transition to green energy."Commodity prices will remain high for a long time to come," said Ivan Glasenberg, the outgoing CEO of commodities giant Glencore Plc. According to him, for the first time, two superpowers of the world, the United States and China, simultaneously promoted major infrastructure projects to save their economies from the impact of the coronavirus pandemic.The offer is trying to catch up. Some of the bottlenecks are caused by deliberate actions by producing countries, such as the OPEC+ alliance, which cut oil production last year. And another shortage is due to the complexity of the work of mines, smelters and farms at the height of the pandemic.The decisive factor for the duration of growth is the structural restriction of supply, which means that high prices may not work as a signal to increase production and, ultimately, return the market to equilibrium.The forces that slow down the reaction of the proposal are twofold. First, there are more and more demands from the fighters against climate change that the same production of fossil fuels, such as coal, oil and gas, be reduced. Secondly, the shareholders of the companies demand that the management pays them higher dividends, which, in turn, leaves less money for expanding mines or drilling new wells.The impact of these forces is already evident in some areas of the commodity market, where companies stopped investing in new supplies several years ago. Take, for example, thermal coal. Mining companies have been cutting costs since at least 2015. As demand increased, coal prices jumped to a level not seen in the last 10 years. The same thing happened with iron ore, whose prices soared to a record high at the beginning of this year. The next one is likely to be oil, where companies are significantly cutting costs.For commodity bulls like Doug King, this is a sign of doubling. "This is the beginning of a proper boom cycle, and this is not a temporary surge," he ...

Scientists in Germany conducted a study, the results of which showed that in the future, the world may form a "coffee" crisis. It will be caused by global warming. It will lead to the fact that the land suitable for growing high – quality coffee-Specialty coffee-will disappear on the planet. In particular, scientists believe that Ethiopia, on the territory of which the world's most popular Yirgacheffe coffee is grown, may lose 40% of the land suitable for this purpose. At the same time, the area of agricultural land that can only be used for growing medium-quality coffee will increase. Scientists in the course of the study studied the degree of influence of almost 20 climatic factors that affect the quality of five varieties of coffee in the Specialty coffee category. If the climate becomes warmer, the berry pulp will ripen faster than the coffee grain. This will lead to a significant deterioration in the quality of coffee beans. Scientists also noted that in the event of a warming climate, it will be especially difficult for small farms that grow ...

Despite the fact that coffee is one of the most popular drinks in the world, it is not among the top investment tools, judging by the enthusiasm of investors. Compared to other commodities such as gold, silver and oil, coffee is not so popular. But people who invested in coffee in 2020 or earlier are now making a profit, as coffee prices reach their highest since 2015.Let's look at the coffee market to better understand the price dynamics and get an answer to the question whether it is worth buying coffee at current levels.Coffee as a financial instrumentInvestors can buy and sell coffee through the futures exchange. Coffee contracts are traded on the CME Group. Each futures contract is 37,500 pounds. Contracts are priced per pound. If coffee futures are traded at $100 per pound, then the full value of the contract is $37,500.Platforms where you can buy contracts for difference (CFDs) allow you to speculate on goods and other instruments. Instead of immediately buying expensive futures contracts, investors trade CFDs, the value of which rises or falls depending on the movement of the underlying asset. In our case, this is the price of coffee.CFD brokers offer leverage, so investors using leverage can buy more CFDs by investing less capital. It is necessary to remember that leverage can increase your losses if the market goes against you.There are two types of coffee: Robusta and Arabica. At the same time, Arabica coffee beans account for 75 percent of world production. Arabica is sold at a higher price compared to Robusta. Key coffee giants such as Kraft, Procter & Gamble, Nestle and Sara Lee, acquire almost half of all coffee produced for their own use.Coffee beans grow on small trees, and it is vital that they grow under optimal weather conditions. Bad weather can affect the entire global market.Brazil is one of the largest coffee producers, and under normal conditions produces almost 40% of the world's coffee. Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, Indonesia and Ethiopia account for about three-quarters of the world's coffee production.Read more: Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME): history, structure, advantages and featuresComparison: Arabica vs RobustaArabica    Higher acidityLower caffeine contentSweet and mild tastePronounced and fragrant notesRobustaLower acidityHigher caffeine contentStrong, rich and bitter tasteBurnt wood/rubber fragranceThe forecast of coffee prices depends on the drought in BrazilCoffee is not the only product whose price has increased significantly over the past year. News about coffee prices and analytics are not nearly as detailed as for gold or oil.Gold and oil have more noticeable growth catalysts, so it is easier for beginners to invest in them. For example, the growth potential of gold is based on concerns about inflation, and oil prices correlate with the results of OPEC+ meetings.Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their studySo, what determines the prospects and trends of coffee prices?Perhaps the most notable factor is the ongoing drought in Brazil. Reports of a devastating drought began to appear in the headlines at the end of 2020.The USDA said in a June 2021 report that global coffee production in 2021/22 is projected to decline by 11 million bags to 164.8 million, mainly due to weather conditions in Brazil.It seems that there is no solution to the problem of drought in Brazil in the near future. And this bodes well for the forecast of coffee prices until 2023.Commerzbank agricultural analyst, Dr. Mikaela Helbing-Kul, said that if the drought lasts until August, its consequences will also affect the harvest season of 2023.Nevertheless, traders and investors are wondering whether the recent surge in coffee prices is the result of the fact that the market has taken into account the drought factor, or whether it is still worth waiting for a bullish trend in prices.Read more: How to determine the beginning of the movement of the "bull" market?Coffee price forecast: assessment of key levelsCoffee in July was trading around 154 USD per pound. Key Support and Resistance levels for Coffee:Support:128 USD - minimum on April 16137 USD - minimum on May 3145 USD - minimum on May 24Resistance:165 USD - June 1 maximum182 USD - the maximum of 2015200 USD is a psychologically important levelThis does not mean that coffee prices will not be able to exceed these levels. In fact, coffee was trading below 100 USD per pound in 2020 and above 300 ISD per pound in 2011. Looking even further, the last time coffee prices traded above $300 was in 1997.Although it can be difficult to make a forecast of coffee prices for a couple of years ahead, since it depends too much on weather trends, it is a little easier to assess the short-term trend.And a short-term rally first formed on the charts in July 2020, when the price of coffee exceeded the 20-day moving average. The charts show that coffee broke up its moving average in April 2021 at about 130 USD, and then the momentum helped it to exceed 160 USD.The price of coffee very quickly reached a maximum of 165 USD on June 1, 2021, a level not seen since October 2016, and continued to trade below the moving average, where it was at the beginning of July. This in itself signals a bearish mood on coffee prices, but it is necessary to analyze other indicators before making any conclusions.Coffee, D What's next with the forecast of coffee prices?The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recently reached overbought territory three times, the last time around April. At the beginning of July, the RSI was around 50, this is the middle of the range, so it won't help us much.Investors have three options. Sell coffee, open a long position on coffee, or wait until the picture becomes clearer.The arguments in favor of selling coffee are based on the belief that the market has already taken into account the ongoing drought in the price, and the price decline from 165 USD to current levels is only the beginning of a long downward trend.In this case, investors should consider setting a stop loss above 165 USD, for example, at 170 USD. If the coffee successfully overcomes the resistance level of 165 USD, this may be a sign that selling is not the correct option.But the last few days have shown that buyers are trying to raise coffee prices significantly above the level of 150 USD. Combined with the fact that coffee prices are noticeably higher than they were at the end of 2020, we can assume that the rally still has prospects.In this case, a stop loss at the level of 145 or 137 USD is appropriate, since a drop below the support level indicates that there may be a rally.Read more: Bulls and bears, as well as other animals on the stock exchangeFrequently Asked QuestionsIs coffee a good investment?Although coffee is not included in the list of the 5 best-selling commodities, it can also open up attractive trading opportunities. Do your own research and think about trading coffee with contracts for difference. CFDs allow you to benefit from price fluctuations regardless of the direction of the market. Open a long position if you think that the price of coffee will go up, or a short position if you think that it will go down.Will the price of coffee increase in the future?Coffee prices rose sharply between the middle and the end of 2020, reaching a multi-year high of $165 in June 2021.What factors influence the price of coffee?Weather is one of the most important variables that affects the price of coffee. Other factors include rising demand worldwide. For example, the coffee chain giant Starbucks plans to add 20,000 new stores by 2030, bringing the total number of stores to 55,000 units. If the coffee chain succeeds in new markets, the price of coffee may ...