eBay Trading forecasts and signals

The largest online store eBay reported a net loss in the 1st quarter of 2022 of $1.34 billion against a profit of $641 million for the same period a year earlier. The diluted loss per share amounted to $2.28. The company's revenue for the reporting period decreased by 6% to $2.5 billion. The number of active buyers as of the end of March this year amounted to 142 million people, which is 13% lower than a year ago.eBay shares on the Nasdaq premarket on May 5 fall by 6.14%, to $51.08 per ...

Shares of eBay, an online marketplace, are trading 27% below the maximum marks of 2021. In the current conditions, investors want to deal with the most reliable companies that pay dividends and conduct programs to buy their own shares from the market. eBay not only fits these criteria, but also plans to significantly increase the amount of revenue, as a result of which it has a good chance of a tangible rebound from recent lows.Management adheres to the right strategy: instead of competing with Amazon on all fronts, eBay focuses on the most important, unique areas: collectibles, auto parts, electronics and others.At the moment, the platform earns only $1.1 billion through advertising (sponsored placements and promoted lots) - this is about 11% of total revenue. By 2023, it is planned to increase this figure to $2 billion. Another growth driver is the payment system. The platform launches its digital wallet in order to reduce dependence on the current payment service - PayPal.A few more important points: the amount of quarterly dividends was increased by 20% to $0.22 per share, and a $4 billion share repurchase program was introduced (about 12% of capitalization).However, not everything is as smooth as we would like. Compared to the previous quarter, the number of active buyers decreased by 5 million to 147 million in the fourth quarter. After the pandemic peaks, activity on the platform begins to decline, and with it the revenue indicator, which increased by 5% YoY to $2.61 billion over the period. At the current stage, it is necessary to observe how eBay will increase margins and ...

eBay shares are trading 25% below their 2021 highs. The pandemic breathed a second wind into the online platform: the turnover of goods (GMV) and revenue began to grow significantly against the background of increased customer activity. Things are especially good in areas where Amazon's weak presence is felt, for example, collectible goods. The introduction of managed payments also played a role. As one of the ”bullish" factors, it is worth mentioning a $5 billion share repurchase program. This amount may impress even more if we recall that at the moment eBay's capitalization is $36 billion.It is necessary to take into account the fact that the pandemic had a one-time positive effect on GMV and by the current moment the indicator has decreased by 12% YoY, to $19.45 billion. However, compared to 2019, there is still an increase of 9%. Some of the active buyers have also left: if at the beginning of 2021 166 million people used the platform, then in the third quarter already 154 million.Most interestingly, revenue in the reporting quarter increased by 11% YoY, to $2.5 billion. This happened due to the growth of the "take rate" (transaction fees) to 12.1%.This is where managed payments are worth thanking: the platform collects commissions from about 90% of transactions carried out. Due to the scale effect, the share of operating costs in total revenue decreased to 41.7% (by 3 percentage points YoY). While the EPS indicator is growing against the background of aggressive stock buybacks from the market.In other words, some incredible breakthrough is not expected, but positive factors are quite enough for the growth of stocks, at least to last year's maximum ...

The report published by eBay indicates an increase in net profit for the 1st half of this year to $11.4 billion, which is 2.7 times higher than a year ago. Earnings per share reached $16.52 cents. At the same time, in the same period of 2020, it amounted to $5.67 cents. eBay's half-year revenue increased to $5.3 billion, or 28% year-on-year. The company expects that by the end of the current quarter, net profit will be in the range of $2.42 to $2.47 billion. Per share – from 64 to 68 cents. By the end of the reporting period, the number of users who actively use the Internet auction services decreased to 159 million people, or by 2% compared to the indicator recorded a year earlier. The company also announced the sale of its business in South Korea. It was bought by the country's largest online store Emart. The transaction amount was $3 billion. During preliminary trading, eBay shares fell in price by about ...

The marketOn August 6, the US stock markets showed mixed dynamics. The S&P 500 rose by 0.17% to 4436 points, the Nasdaq corrected by 0.40%, the Dow Jones added 0.41%. The financial (+2.01%) and manufacturing (0.47%) sectors were the leaders of growth. Representatives of the cyclical consumer goods industry (-0.73%) and real estate (-0.23%) traded worse than the market.Company newsShares of the agrochemical company Corteva (CTVA: +8%) reacted positively to the publication of strong reporting for the quarter and another improvement in the management forecast.Quotes of the producer of energy drinks Monster Beverage (MNST: +5.5%) increased on the background of high revenue growth, and despite the shortage of aluminum containers for drinks.Expedia online travel service (EXPE: -8%) disappointed investors with mixed quarterly results and pessimistic comments from management about the risks of new waves of the pandemic for the company's business.ExpectationsLast Sunday, the Senate approved by a majority vote the termination of the debate on the "bipartisan" bill of infrastructure reforms. Senators should vote for its final version tonight or tomorrow. In addition, issues of cryptocurrency regulation and other relevant topics were discussed. The speaker of the lower house of Congress, Nancy Pelosi, received from the initiative group of congressmen to put the infrastructure reform bill to a vote immediately after its adoption in the Senate, but the speaker intends to simultaneously pass both bills through this procedure.In the United States, the discussion of revaccination plans continues against the background of the spread of the COVID-19 "delta" strain. Leading immunologist Anthony Fauci recently stated that he supports the idea of revaccination for people with weakened immunity. The US Centers for Control and Prevention (CDC) is studying the need for re-vaccination of older Americans, the FDA plans to present its recommendations on these procedures in September. The incidence of coronavirus infection has reached a six-month high. The number of new cases of infection is on average 100 thousand per day. In those states where the vaccination campaign is slower, hospitals are experiencing a high load.Asian stock markets closed in the green zone. Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose by 0.40%, China's CSI 300 rose by 1.30%, Japan's Nikkei 225 added 0.33%. EuroStoxx 50 is up by 0.01%.The risk appetite is moderate. The yield of 10-year treasuries is 1.29%. The price of Brent futures fell to $67.90 per barrel. Gold is trading near $1,743 per troy ounce.In my opinion, the S&P 500 will hold the upcoming session in the range of 4400-4450 points.MacrostatisticsNo significant publications of macrostatistics are planned for today.  Technical pictureTechnically, the S&P 500 continues to move in a long-term uptrend. On the eve of the broad market index reached a new historical high. The nearest target of the bulls is 4480 points. The RSI indicator still forms a "bearish" divergence, so the risk of a short-term correction remains. To change the market sentiment, the benchmark must first fall below the support located at the level of 4370 points.In the field of viewOn August 9, the report for the second quarter will be presented by Tyson Foods (TSN) - one of the largest producers of meat products in the United States. The consensus forecast of Factset assumes an increase in the company's revenue by 14.3%, to $11.46 billion, with non-GAAP EPS growth by 16% – to $1.61. The active improvement of these indicators is due to the low base of the same period in 2020 and the recovery growth. One of the key positive drivers is the increased demand for catering services as the economy opens up. We expect that during the second half of 2021, the share of spending on visiting public catering establishments will increase, which will support the financial performance of Tyson Foods, provided that the epidemic situation is favorable. The market will focus on the impact of inflation on the profitability of Tyson Foods, as well as the dynamics of the share of the high-margin segment of Prepared Foods and the volume of chicken production, as the CEO gave positive forecasts regarding profits from this direction.On August 11, eBay (EBAY) reports for the second calendar quarter. The consensus includes a decrease in revenue by 1.7% y/y, to $2.8 billion, with a decrease in adjusted net income by 13% y/y, to $663 million, and a drop in GAAP earnings per share by 21% y/y, to $0.82. These forecasts look realistic, since Etsy and Amazon have already demonstrated a trend for reducing revenues. In addition, eBay, like other representatives of online commerce, recorded high results in the same period of 2020, which accounted for a record influx of users and transaction volume. We expect conservative management forecasts for the current quarter, and we do not exclude that a benchmark for key financial metrics will be given until the end of 2021.On August 12, Walt Disney (DIS) will present its financial results for April-June. The media giant's revenue is expected to rise by 42% y/y, reaching $16.8 billion, and adjusted EPS will increase from $0.08 to $0.55. The high growth rates are due to weak results for the same period in 2020. A positive driver will be an increase in revenue from streaming, the factors of support will be the recovery of revenues from film distribution, TV advertising, amusement parks and hotels. The report of another major representative of the media industry, Comcast, reflected unexpectedly high results in the Universal theme parks segment due to very strong demand for their services. We are interested in the comments of Disney management about the impact of the new wave of the pandemic on park visits. One of the most important parameters for investors will be the dynamics of the number of subscribers of the streaming services Disney+, Hulu, ...

eBay shares are trading 30% higher than the levels of the beginning of 2021, but given the fact that stock indexes are near historical highs, the potential for further growth in quotations remains.eBay is very different from other tech companies. While others are constantly acquiring companies in order to increase revenue and do not think much about profitability, eBay has no regrets about breaking up with non-profitable divisions. In 2019, StubHub was sold, and in 2020, Classifieds was sold. The fact that management is well aware of its strengths and prefers to focus only on those areas that bring money is a great signal for investors.eBay is a niche company, but that doesn't mean it can't be big. According to the results of the first quarter, the volume of GMV (total turnover of goods) increased by 29% yoy, to $27.46 billion. Seasonality is of great importance for such companies: usually the most successful quarter is the last three months of the year. However, eBay managed to perform even better than in the previous quarter: the size of GMV grew consistently by 3%. And this is despite the fact that retail stores began to reopen after the quarantine. The number of active buyers in the first quarter rose to a maximum of 187 million. Gross margin increased by 4 points y/y, to 28%, and FCF increased by 65% y/y, to $855 million.The company continues to improve its service. Thanks to the new rules for placing lots associated with images, users save about 75% of the time on creating an ad. The innovations were introduced to support the high demand for the sale of collectible cards that arose last ...

eBay, one of the beneficiaries of the quarantine, should face increased competition as early as the second quarter of 2021, which makes its prospects quite difficult to assess. However, despite the easing of restrictive measures, the company expects revenue growth of 40% in the first quarter, to $2.94-2.99 billion.The site has long been a popular marketplace for selling products, but this does not prevent it from finding new sources of growth. Apparently, during the pandemic, many people did a general cleaning of their homes and found forgotten collectible cards, which were displayed in large numbers on eBay. In total, 4 million cards were sold in 2020, which is 142% more than last year.eBay works with services to verify the authenticity of various collectible and valuable items: from watches and sneakers, to cards. Investors and collectors appreciated the convenience of the platform, which has a positive effect not only on the trading volume, but also on the profit from advertising. The fact is that the owners of valuable items actively purchase the promotion of their lots on the platform in order to get a higher profit. eBay's revenue from product promotions increased 60% to $215 million in the fourth quarter.An important point is the purchase of its own shares from the market: in 2020, eBay spent $5.1 billion on these operations, buying back about 10% of the shares in circulation. At the moment, management has managed to approve purchases for another $6 billion. The dividend yield of the shares is ...

About AlibabaAlibaba is a global retailer and commercial mobile resource from China.The Chinese market of online retailers indicates that Alibaba has reached the status of a monopolist. The main financial indicators of the company are obtained through sales in the Chinese market.The sale on the Alibaba service is an online auction of goods made in China. There are a large number of different products on the platform. These are clothing, accessories, cosmetics, electronics, cars, and food sales.Alibaba is an issuer that includes a combination of global resources of Amazon, eBay, PayPal. The company is a leader in the online retail market in China. The corporation consists of an online retailer Alibaba.com, resources of AliExpress, Taobao, Tmall. The corporation also includes a number of other services.Due to the coronavirus, the corporation was able to increase its performance. Consumer demand for cloud services has grown. The restrictions imposed by the Chinese state can be called a risk. In the next part, we will take a detailed look at the opportunities and risks of investing in Alibaba.Company structureThe main difference between ALibaba and its main competitor – Amazon-is the lack of storage facilities and direct sales. Alibaba manages Chinese territorial platforms to form a meeting place for sellers and buyers. The company receives revenue from commissions paid by sellers, as well as from cloud services.The corporation has its own payment system Alipay, which is used for operations when operating a subsidiary of Taobao.The company includes subsidiaries:Service from the direction of B2C-Taobao. The retail platform provides approximately 2 billion different goods and services for Chinese consumers.Tmall sells products of world-famous brands. For example, Ralph Lauren, Nike, Piaget.Tmall Global is a global platform for trading activities in the consumer market.AliExpress is an international online retailer that sells at retail.Alibaba.com is a global retailer specializing in wholesale sales.Alibaba Cloud sells web platforms. Similar services can be called Amazon AWS and Microsoft Azure.Freshippo – new generation grocery stores.Retail tradeRevenue for the last quarter was 206 billion yuan, and for the previous year this number reached 154 billion dollars. Such indicators were obtained due to high revenues from the new retail network Sun Art. Excluding this segment, revenue increased by 22%. Operating profit indicators fell by 11% due to investment in large projects. For example, these are Taobao Deals, as well as Community Marketplaces. Net profit decreased by 8%, reaching 42 billion yuan, which translates to 6.6 billion dollars.Revenue from Taobao and Tmall subsidiaries selling retail goods rose by 14%. This is below the overall growth rate of 22%. The indicators of retail sales of the global market, logistics service and computing have increased significantly, from 29% to 54%.Alibaba has difficulties with online retail services. The competitive forces of companies have increased JD.com and Pinduoduo, operating in the Chinese market. If revenue growth slows down, traders should rethink their intention to invest in the company.Alibaba Cloud ServicesAlibaba is a global leader in the online retail market. Recently, the company has released a promising project Alibaba Cloud.In the first quarter of 2021, revenue from this industry amounted to $ 2.5 billion, which is 28% higher compared to the last fiscal year. Alibaba's profit was $ 52.5 million, and for 2020, the net loss reached 1.1 billion yuan.The data for the current year was slowed down, and now the indicator reaches 29%, and last year cloud services grew by 59% year-on-year.Representatives of Alibaba believe that growth has slowed due to the fact that one of the company's largest customers did not use a foreign cloud service. Alibaba Cloud is a promising project, EBITDA increases its indicators. If the segment continues to grow, the level of profitability and profit will only be optimized.There is a high probability that Alibaba Cloud will steadily increase its performance in the near future, as an increasing number of companies use cloud services.We can observe the development of Cloud technologies: This can be seen through the use of 5G technologies, the development of self-driving cars and the Internet of Things (IoT). The analytical company Canalys believes that if Alibaba takes 40% or more in the Chinese cloud services market, the corporation will be able to take a leading position.Investing in the futureThe company invests money both in its own projects (such as Alibaba Cloud) and in the foreign segment (acquisition of Lazada).According to the latest report, Alibaba was able to double the data of its commercial business. The issuer invested $ 2.2 billion, and in 2020 this number reached $ 600 million. These investments were able to reduce the data on short-term profit results, which caused an increase in competitive advantages over Pinduoduo and JD.com.Such investments are a good foundation for future development.In addition to reinvesting in its development, Alibaba is engaged in share repurchase. The buyback was increased from the level of 10 to 15 billion dollars for 2022. This is the right decision, since the securities have reduced indicators over the past year.Risks for investorsIn the 1990s, goods from China were not perceived as something of high quality. But over the past decade, new corporations have emerged that use modern technologies. They were able to achieve high results in the global market. Alibaba was the first of this list: the company's creator, Jack Ma, was able to get high results.The owner had an interest in implementing American business management principles: following the company's own interests, influencing legislation. As a result, we see that this was impossible in China.The ruling party reacted negatively to the rapid development of private business. Over the past year, strict sanctions have been imposed on large enterprises from China.Alibaba has been heavily influenced by the state. Last fall, they blocked the implementation of the IPO of Ant Group in the amount of $ 37 billion.Jack Ma decided to rethink the further development of the corporation, deciding to improve relations with the government. At the moment, it is almost impossible to notice it in the public space. Large Chinese businesses have been subjected to restrictions from state authorities over the past six months, and this has reduced interest in companies in the stock market.But this is not all the risks for potential investors. It is necessary to assess the stability of Alibaba in the global market. Consumers may be negatively disposed towards China for a number of reasons: involvement in the development of the coronavirus, non-compliance with human rights, the level of geopolitical risks in the South China Sea, and the likely sponsorship of cyber fraud operations by the Chinese government.The US authorities may initiate the introduction of economic sanctions for the PRC. Relations between the states are strained due to trade conflicts that began under the last President Donald Trump.Now any investment in corporations from China carries a risk. We now advise you to monitor the news field in China, and with the growth of the economy, you can pay attention to stocks that are at multi-year lows.Read more: How to invest in stocks and what you need to knowAbout LyftLast week, a new report of the Lyft enterprise was criticized. adjusted profit was achieved earlier for the 1st quarter than the forecasts indicated.Adjusted EBITDA was $ 24 million. These forecasts indicated a loss of $ 40 million. Revenue amounted to $ 765 million, and according to forecasts it was $ 697 million.After the report is released, we leave the previous forecast. It is planned to change the direction of securities in the buyers ' market. Now the level of quotations reaches $ 53, and the issuer is going to increase the data to $ 85-90.About eBayWe also analyzed the data from the eBay report. The profit and revenue indicators turned out to be more than predicted, and this is $ 15.68 per share. Last year, this number reached $ 0.96. Revenue increased by 14%, amounting to $ 2.67 billion, and for 2020 this level was about $ 2.34 billion.The number of users of the service fell by 2%, as a result, it is 159 million people.After the release of the report, the shares went up. Prices increased by $ 9: from $ 65.50 to $ 74. We predict an increase in shares. The future goal is to reach $ ...

The main business direction of eBay Inc. is services in the field of online stores and auctions. The company manages the eBay website and its counterpart in different countries, as well as is owned by eBay Enterprise.Today's eBay is one of the most famous IT companies. This should not be surprising, since eBay appeared much earlier than the dot-com collapse, and most businesses simply disappeared.The company was founded in 1995, when programmer Pierre Omidyar created a free online auction AuctionWeb on his website. In a short time, it attracted a lot of users. By the end of this year, the number of lots sold on it has reached a thousand.In 1997, the project received its modern name, which comes from the name of the consulting company Omidyar Echo Bay Technology Group, abbreviated due to the inability to register a domain EchoBay.com.At that time, e-sales giants such as Amazon were thriving, and eBay was lagging behind in the retail space. High commission rates, a complicated platform, and free auctions such as the Facebook Marketplace hindered eBay. It began to lag so far behind that its subsidiary PayPal is now 8 times better in terms of market capitalization.Despite the difference from Amazon, eBay has the advantage of supporting small businesses, as it offers a low level of commissions and fast financial payments. Moreover, eBay has a fairly good stability and conducts its business more efficiently than some opponents.About the productWhen COVID-19 broke out, the world's economy began to fall. The supply chain, which was interrupted due to the blockage, was one of the weak points.Consumers began to change their habits, but manufacturers faced difficulties. Small stores began to display products such as game consoles, toilet paper and office desks.In this situation, the winner was eBay. The retailer did not show a shortage or an excess of supply, because it does not have its own stocks. In addition, the business activity of the enterprise benefits from the refusal of delivery of goods, because there is no need to think about the return of goods, restrictions on delivery and an increased level of costs for loading and unloading activities.About advertising revenueIt is difficult to say that the issuer's customer base has significantly expanded during the pandemic. From 2019 to 2021, eBay has 13 million customers. But, here it is worth considering not only the number, but the level of customer activity. In total, there are 187 million active customers on this platform. This is a fairly large number of people, and in this case there are always companies advertising their products for them.The company actively uses this demand and provides suppliers with tools for advertising events on their site.To make an assessment of the potential of the advertising business, you can refer to the statistics of Amazon, which received more than $20 billion from advertising last year.The numbers on eBay are more modest. So, in 2020, eBay's advertising earnings are fixed at the level of $1 billion. And in the first quarter of this year, the value of revenue from advertising activities exceeded $220 million, which is 60% more than last year. Modestly, yes, but eBay has something to strive for.Repurchase of securitiesEarlier, eBay said that it wants to buy back $5 billion of its own shares this year. This figure corresponds to almost 10% of the company's market value of $46 billion. Now that investors know that a stock buyback is planned, they do not need to think about falling stock prices. If this happens, the company can independently intervene and buy back large packages of its securities, again raising the price and reducing the number of securities.The buyout is also a signal to investors that the company believes that eBay's securities are within the undervalued range. However, some analysts believe that the buyback will not be very effective, since the share price is high, and all the news that affects the growth of shares has already been counted in the value, and it has increased by more than 30% over the year since January.Buy or sell?eBay recently closed a deal related to the sale of Adevinta for $2 billion. Then it was decided to sell the business in South Korea - the Shinsegae group. Here, the contract amount is estimated at $3.6 billion for investors for each sale, and this will allow eBay to be focused on its main form.In general, the growth of active customers, increased advertising activity and the purchase of securities can improve the profit per eBay paper (EPS). But, according to the decision of the platform's management, the profit per paper may decrease in the second quarter. But last year the company experienced a boom due to the epidemic. And now, when everything is over, we can see real figures that reflect the state of the enterprise.The expected decline from the level of the pandemic may be one of the reasons why eBay securities can be traded with a relatively cheap value-to-profit ratio of 17.7. So, despite an increase of more than 30%, this paper still has the opportunity to grow to new ...