EUR/NOK Trading forecasts and signals

A revised estimate of fourth-quarter GDP will be released in the United States this afternoon. Preliminary data showed a slowdown in economic growth to 2.3%, while private consumption remained steady. In addition, Fed representatives are expected to speak, including Hammack, Harker, Barkin and Schmid. Their statements may clarify the regulator's current position on future mitigation policy.In the euro area, investors are waiting for statistics on the growth of lending and money supply in January. These indicators play an important role in assessing the degree of rigidity of the ECB's monetary policy. The data may affect expectations regarding possible steps by the Central Bank in the coming months.The consumer price index in Spain will be published today, which will give a preliminary idea of the dynamics of inflation in the Eurozone before the release of general data on Monday. Inflation is projected to decrease due to falling energy prices and a slowdown in service price growth, which is due to the effect of last year's high base.Norges Bank will present the results of its survey on inflation expectations. Analysts assume that the projected inflation rate will continue to decline in both the short and long term. Important attention will also be paid to forecasts for wage growth in 2025-2026. In addition, the published employment data for January will help determine whether the December job losses were really a trend or temporary.An Economic Trend Indicator from the National Institute of Economic Research will be released in Sweden. Key attention will be paid to how companies plan to adjust prices, especially after the release of high data on the producer price index (PPI) and inflation. In addition, data on the trade balance and household lending are expected today.US trade policy remains one of the main factors of market uncertainty. Despite the previously announced dates for the introduction of tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico (March 4), the White House allowed them to be postponed to April 2. However, conflicting statements from officials leave the possibility that tariffs will take effect as early as next week. At the same time, Donald Trump again threatened to impose 25% duties on EU goods, including cars. In general, these statements confirm that tariff policy is being used as an instrument of pressure in negotiations.President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky said that the success of the mining deal with the United States will depend on the upcoming negotiations with Donald Trump. He stressed that the agreement is part of a broader cooperation with Washington and may be included in future security guarantees. In turn, Trump confirmed that Zelensky would arrive in the United States on Friday to sign the agreement, but noted that the United States does not plan to provide Ukraine with expanded security guarantees, placing this responsibility on Europe.The European Commission has presented the "Clean Industrial Deal" strategic plan aimed at stimulating economic growth and accelerating the decarbonization process. The program provides for increased investments in environmentally friendly technologies, lower energy costs and easier reporting for small and medium-sized businesses. However, no short-term impact on economic growth is expected, as no significant increase in government spending is envisaged under the program. The EU plans to raise 100 billion euros (about 0.6% of GDP), but it is still unclear where these funds will come from. Most of the financing is likely to be provided by private capital.The situation on the marketsStock indexesThe US stock markets showed mixed dynamics yesterday. The S&P 500 index ended the day unchanged, while the European Stoxx 600 rose 1%. Despite the new tariff threats, the US markets stopped a four-day decline. In general, there is a rotation of capital in favor of cyclical sectors, including technology, consumer goods and banks. Nvidia's report provided particularly strong support to the market, which exceeded profit and revenue expectations, dispelling concerns about overheating of the artificial intelligence market.Debt marketsYesterday, there was moderate demand for European debt securities amid concerns about a slowdown in economic growth in the United States. The yield on 10-year US bonds fell by 30 basis points, reaching 4.25%, while 10-year German bunds fell by only 10 bps. The yield difference between the US and Germany narrowed to 181 bps. In the evening, there were reports of a possible postponement of the increase in US tariffs until April, which also had an impact on the impact on the bond market.CurrenciesIn the foreign exchange market, the US dollar, the British pound and the Japanese yen strengthened. The Scandinavian currencies, as well as the Australian and New Zealand dollars, showed a weakening. The EUR/USD exchange rate was trading near 1.05, EUR/SEK rose above 11.15, and EUR/NOK - around ...

European leaders are meeting in Paris today to discuss the future of European security, support for Ukraine, and strengthen Europe's position in negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. This is happening against the background of US President Donald Trump's initiatives to start a negotiation process with Russia, while limiting the participation of European countries.Markets continue to monitor political developments, including a possible truce in Ukraine, upcoming elections in Germany on Sunday, and any signs of negotiations between Trump and Xi Jinping over the recent tariff hike.Economic data and market newsThe main event of the week will be the publication of PMI indices in most major countries, with the exception of China, on Friday. Special attention will be paid to data on the Eurozone to confirm whether the region's economy continues to recover due to rising real incomes and lower interest rates.Employment data for the month will be released in Sweden today. The labor market situation is expected to stabilize, but without a significant improvement in the unemployment rate. This is in line with last week's PES report, which showed a steady unemployment rate and a return of layoffs to historical averages.USA: Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that Ukraine and Europe will participate in any real negotiations to end the war. Peace talks will begin this week in Saudi Arabia between representatives of the United States and Russia. Ukraine's role in this process remains unclear.Japan: GDP for the fourth quarter exceeded expectations, reaching 2.8% (forecast: 1.0%), while consumption growth slowed less than expected, remaining at 0.1% (forecast: -0.3%). These data supported the yen and increased the likelihood of further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan.Eurozone: employment in the fourth quarter of 2024 increased by 0.1% in quarterly terms, which confirms the stability of the labor market. Spain showed strong employment growth of 1.0%, while in Germany the indicator remained at 0.0%.Norway: The Payroll Committee has published a report before the central negotiations. Inflation is expected to fall to 2.5% in 2025, which may limit the risks of wage growth. We expect four rate cuts in 2025.Stock, bond and currency marketsStocks: The U.S. and European stock markets were virtually unchanged on Friday, ending the week with gains of more than 1.5%. Europe has outperformed the United States in terms of dynamics (9% since the beginning of the year versus 4% in the United States). The VIX index fell below 15, which is the lowest since the end of January.Bonds: Global bond yields remain uncertain despite lower expectations for Fed rate cuts. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds is in the range of 4.4–4.6%.Currencies: The US dollar weakened last week as markets reduced their long positions on the greenback due to Trump's controversial policy. EUR/USD approached 1.05, while USD/JPY returned to the range of 152-153. The Scandinavian currencies also strengthened, with EUR/SEK below 11.25 and EUR/NOK near ...

US employment data: what to expect?Today, the main attention of market participants is focused on the publication of the US employment report for January. Seasonally adjusted, growth in the number of jobs in the non-agricultural sector is projected to slow down to 150,000 (previous value: 256 thousand). Average hourly earnings are projected to increase by 0.3% mom, and the unemployment rate will remain at 4.1%.The University of Michigan's preliminary consumer confidence index for February will also be published. The volatility of this indicator in recent months is explained by the difference in views between optimistic Republicans and more cautious Democrats.Eurozone: Neutral interest rate analysisThe European Central Bank will present a report on a neutral interest rate, a level at which monetary policy has neither a stimulating nor a restraining effect on the economy. According to previous ECB estimates, this indicator was in the range of 1.5-2.0%, however, according to the latest data, it may be revised upward to 1.75-2.25%.Germany: industrial productionGerman industrial production data for December will also be released today. Investors hope to see signs of a slowdown in the recession, which was previously reflected in the dynamics of the purchasing Managers' Index (PMI).Sweden: Public Finance reportThe Swedish National Debt Office will publish data on the state of public finances for January 2025. In the previous two months, there was a significant deterioration in the indicators, which led to an increase in the need for borrowing by SEK 26 billion compared to November forecasts. Additionally, the latest data on real estate prices will be published.Economic newsUSA: slowing labor productivity growthIn the fourth quarter, labor productivity growth in the non-agricultural sector slowed to 1.2% (forecast: 1.4%, previous value: 2.3%). Although this indicator remains volatile, the growth rate has approached pre-pandemic levels (about 1%). This may indicate a structural slowdown in the economy, forcing companies to either shift rising wage costs into prices or reduce margins.United Kingdom: The Bank of England lowered the rateThe Bank of England lowered its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.5%, which was in line with market expectations. The decision was made by a majority vote (7-2), with the most hawkish member of the committee, Catherine Mann, voting for the reduction for the first time.Sweden: unexpected rise in inflationPreliminary data on inflation in Sweden (excluding energy) for January showed an increase of 2.7% yoy (forecast: 2.1%, previous value: 2.0%), which significantly exceeded market expectations and forecasts of the Riksbank. The final data will be published next week, and they will have an impact on further monetary policy decisions.Eurozone: retail sales declineRetail sales in the eurozone decreased by 0.2% mom in December (forecast: -0.1%, previous value: +0.1%), however, the annual growth was 1.9%. This raises questions about the prospects of consumer demand as the main driver of the region's GDP growth in 2025.Czech: interest rate reductionThe Central Bank of the Czech Republic lowered its key rate by 25 bps to 3.75%, despite the unexpectedly high inflation rate released earlier in the day. This confirms the regulator's commitment to easing monetary policy.Stock markets: investor optimismGlobal stock indexes ended the day with growth, and the MSCI World Index updated its historical maximum. The main drivers were positive corporate reporting and reduced volatility. The VIX index dropped to 15.5. European markets have shown strong momentum, with the German DAX up more than 10% since the beginning of the year.In the American market:• Dow Jones dropped 0.3%• S&P 500 rose 0.4%• Nasdaq added 0.5%• Russell 2000 lost 0.4%There is a mixed dynamic in Asia, with Chinese stocks leading the way in terms of growth.Bond markets and the foreign exchange marketDebt marketEuropean bond yields remained stable in anticipation of today's report on the US labor market. The Bank of England's decision to cut the rate by 25 bps had no significant impact on other markets.The foreign exchange marketToday, traders' main attention is focused on employment data in the United States. Main movements:• EUR/USD remains near 1.04• USD/JPY continues to decline below 152• GBP/USD dropped below 1.24 after the Bank of England's decision, but then recovered• The Swedish krona has strengthened due to unexpectedly high inflation• EUR/SEK decreased from 11.35 to 11.31• EUR/NOK fell from 11.70 to 11.64ConclusionsToday's macroeconomic data can be key triggers for market movements. The focus is on the US employment report and the revision of the neutral ECB rate. In the coming days, the dynamics of the currency and debt markets will depend on the interpretation of these data by market participants and their impact on the monetary policy prospects of the leading Central ...

Today, JOLTs data on staff turnover for December will be released, which is an important indicator of labor demand for the Fed. In recent months, the number of vacancies has stabilized after a prolonged decline that began in 2022. Also expected in the evening are speeches by representatives of the Fed – Daly and Bostic, whose comments may give the market additional guidance on monetary policy.In Sweden, the minutes of last week's Riksbank meeting will be published at 9:30 (CET). Then the regulator unanimously decided to reduce the rate by 25 bps. However, despite the lack of formal agreement, there is no unity among the board members, and the head of the regulator Teden adheres to a tougher rhetoric. The protocol will make it possible to better understand the arguments of the parties and confirm or deny the December rate forecast.Geopolitical tensions in the Arctic and Trump's interestThe other day, analysts published a study on the growing tensions in the Arctic. Donald Trump's interest in Greenland is not surprising given the deepening cooperation between China and Russia, the expansion of activity in the northern sea routes and commercial interests in the region.Key financial market events• North American tariffs. A few hours before the tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada took effect, Trump agreed to postpone them for a month. In exchange, Mexico pledged to strengthen border controls to combat drug trafficking, and Canada pledged to introduce a new official to address fentanyl issues. As a result, market sentiment improved.• China and the USA. Today, 10% US duties on Chinese imports come into force. In response, the Chinese Ministry of Finance announced the introduction of counter tariffs.: 15% for American coal and LNG, 10% for oil, agricultural machinery and automobiles. These measures will take effect on February 10.• The Eurozone. January HICP inflation rose to 2.5% YoY, which is higher than forecasts (expected 2.4%). The growth was driven by an increase in the cost of energy resources, while food inflation slowed down. Core inflation remained at 2.7%. In addition, the business activity index (PMI) rose to 46.6, which signals the stabilization of the industry, but remains below the growth limit (50).• France. The country's prime minister has passed the next part of the 2025 budget through parliament without a majority, which creates the risk of a vote of no confidence. However, the Socialists plan to abstain, and the far-right previously supported the budget, which increases the chances of the head of government to retain office.• USA. The ISM index of business activity in the manufacturing sector rose to 50.9 (49.8 was expected), which was the best result since September 2022. The improvement is observed in key components: production, prices, employment and new orders.• Sweden. The manufacturing PMI rose to 52.9, marking the sixth consecutive month of growth. By comparison, France and Germany remain below 50, underscoring the strength of the Swedish industry.Stock market dynamicsGlobal stock indexes declined by about 1% as news of Trump's tariffs triggered the classic "flight to safety" scenario. However, after the announcement of the transfer of tariffs against Canada and Mexico, the losses were partially compensated. In the US, the Dow Jones fell 0.3%, the S&P 500 by 0.8%, the Nasdaq by 1.2%, and the Russell 2000 by 1.3%. Today, markets in Asia are showing steady growth amid hopes for a softening of the rhetoric on tariffs against China.Bonds and the foreign exchange market• Bonds. The decision to postpone tariffs for Mexico and Canada has reduced the risks of an escalation of the trade war, which is positively perceived by bond markets.• Currencies. Among the major currencies, the Mexican peso (MXN), Brazilian Real (BRL) and Canadian dollar (CAD) have become the best since Friday. The US deal with Mexico caused MXN to rise after its sharp decline amid the threat of tariffs. USD/CAD declined by 1.3% after a similar agreement with Canada. EUR/USD remains near 1.03, EUR/NOK recovered to 11.75, and the Swedish krona holds its position at 11.46 against the ...

The unemployment rate in Spain fell at a record pace in July, as the labor market began to recover from the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, data from the Labor Ministry showed.In July, exceeding the record figures of the previous two months, unemployment fell sharply by 197,841 people. Unemployment fell by 166,911 people in June and by 129,378 people in May.Seasonally adjusted, registered unemployment fell by 191,756 people in July.Unemployment fell by 133,658 in the service sector and by 13,158 in industry. In the construction sector, unemployment fell by 10,154 people and by 8,880 people in the agricultural sector.Unemployment among young people under the age of 25 fell by 36,926 people or 12.34 percent in July compared to the previous ...

The euro against the Norwegian krone is a cross-pair belonging to the category of exotic in the foreign exchange market, popular, for the most part, among local traders in Scandinavia, which is why its liquidity is quite low and brokers are forced to set a high spread (40-60 points).EUR/NOK forecast (online) for todayDue to the high volatility, forecasts on timeframes less than H1-H4 are very difficult, nevertheless, the pair lends itself well to technical and fundamental analysis on H1 and higher. Important news related to oil prices and indicators of the Norwegian and European economies also significantly affect the EUR/NOK exchange rate and can move it by hundreds of points within a few minutes.Analysts for this pair are significantly less than for other, more popular crosses with the participation of the euro, however, as always, trading forums with author's analytics, which are definitely available, can become a salvation, but you should not count on regular reviews of this pair from brokers, and it is best to conduct it yourself.EUR/NOK Trading forecasts and signalsEUR/NOK exchange rate chart (online) with indicatorsAnalysis of the volatility calculator readings for 20 weeks shows that the most stormy trading for this currency pair takes place on Wednesday, but Thursday is also not much behind; Tuesday is the quietest day of the week. As for the activity within the day, 90% of it falls on the European session in the period from 09:00 to 12:00 GMT and at the intersection with the American from 14:00 to 18:00 GMT. Some surge is observed at 00:00 GMT at the opening of Singapore and Hong Kong in the Asian session, but it does not reach the level of volatility of European trading.The volatility of the pair is very high, and this is noticeable even on long-term charts with a candle of 1 month. Strong, sharply alternating ups and downs, huge candlesticks with long shadows in both directions – all these phenomena are familiar to this instrument, the dynamics of which is constantly changing.General characteristicsEuro/The Norwegian Krone is an exotic European currency pair with very high volatility (on average 500-700 pips).EUR/NOK is a cross-rate, since the US dollar is absent in it, however, this does not exclude its indirect influence at all, since transactions on purchases and sales are not carried out directly from one currency to another, but only through USD.The location of the euro ticker on the left side says that this is the base currency, the Norwegian krone is the quoted one, and the exchange rate shows how much NOK you have to pay for 1 EUR. On the charts, the price is displayed with an accuracy of up to 4 characters after the separator (9,1665), which is the standard for most Forex terminals, but there is also a more accurate five-digit rate output that takes into account even tick fluctuations (9,16560).The huge volatility, despite the large commissions, makes the pair very attractive for desperate scalpers. But for lovers of medium and long-term trading, it greatly harms, constantly knocking out stops and forcing them to put them much further than necessary.Read more: EUR/AUD: exchange rate, online quotes, signals, forecasts & analyticsFactors influencing EURNOK and what the exchange rate depends onThe EU is an association of 28 individual states that have sacrificed part of their economic and political sovereignty in favor of the confederation. In general, the economy of the European Union and the standard of living in it are considered quite high, but the consideration of its member countries separately shows a significant heterogeneity and difference in the internal development of each of them. Since ancient times, Europe has had a significant political and cultural impact on other regions. Now , when looking at the average EU economy by sector , the following picture is revealed:About 70.5% of income comes from the service sector;The extractive and manufacturing industries account for 27.3% of GDP;Only 2.1% of GDP comes from agriculture (however, in some agro-industrial countries like Romania, this figure can reach 7.5%).Norway is a cold and mountainous country in the northwest of Scandinavia. Due to the cold climate and infertile soils, agriculture in the country is quite difficult (except for fishing, perhaps), which is why the country has remained one of the poorest and underdeveloped for many centuries. However, progress and a change of priorities in the world radically changed the situation in the second half of the 20th century, when it turned out that the offshore shelf is rich in oil.Norway today is a European country with one of the highest living standards in the world, and a sector-by-sector study of its economy shows the following:up to 78% of GDP comes from services and trade;22% still remains for industry and energy;About 2% of GDP is accounted for by agriculture (meat, cereals, potatoes, fish).Read more: EUR/CAD: signals, forecasts, exchange rate chart (online) and quotesAccording to the analysis, the pair is most correlated with: EUR/NZD- 88.7%, EUR/GBP- 83.6%, IT40 index - 81.7%, EUR/CAD- 80.6%, EUR/CHF- 80.4%, USD/NOK - 79.4%, SPA35 - 67.9%, USD/CAD - 65.4%, FRA40 - 62.5%, AUD/NZD - 53.4%.As well as positive, there is always a negative correlation, today the greatest correspondence is present with: NOK/SEK – -92.3%, XTI/USD – -86.7%, XBR/USD - -85.4%, XPT/USD - -84%, NZD/CHF – -82.1%, NOK/JPY – -72.9%, as well as GBP/CHF – -71.7%, NZD/USD – -71.2%, GBP/SEK – -71%, CAD/CHF – -67.9%.Do not forget that the correlation data are unstable and, due to serious changes in the global economy, change from time to time, and this must be taken into account in your forecasts.Read more: EUR/CHF: exchange rate, online quotes, signals and forecast for todayThe most important factors affecting the course, first of all, should include:Oil prices, on which Norway depends very much;Central Bank rates, monetary policy, reports and speeches of the heads of financial and economic departments (EU and Norway);The situation on the labor market (in both countries);Trade balances (Norway and EU);Weather-climatic and socio-political conditions.Features of EURNOK currency pairToday, the pair allows you to use carry trading, because, despite the small difference in interest rates (0.50% for Norway and 0% for the EU), a positive swap on short positions reaches an impressive +2.19 points.High volatility and the risks associated with it also have a downside, the essence of which is that with sufficient funds and experience, as well as compliance with the rules of trading on this pair, income can be not just large, but huge and reach 300 or even a fantastic 1000% per month of the deposit size.Read more: EUR/TRY: online quotes, signals and forecasts for todayUnlike USD/NOK, which has been growing for many years, as a rule, and is an excellent alternative to the franc for long-term investments, the pair with the crown and the euro does not have such a ...