Nike Trading forecasts and signals

      Shares 29.08.2022 - 4.09.2022Dividends for the week of 08.29.2022 - 09.4.2022CompanyPricePaymentAnnual dividendCutoff DateLast dayMcDonald's (MCD)$256,95$1,382,15%01.0930.08Kellogg Company (K)$73,85$0,593,20%01.0930.08Realty Income (O)$69,91$0,24754,25%01.0930.08Pepsico (PEP)$175,04$1,152,63%02.0931.08Bank Of America (BAC)$34,03$0,222,59%02.0931.08Suncor Energy (SU)$34,31$0,475,48%02.0931.08Nike (NKE)$108,28$0,3051,13%06.0901.09Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD)$257,38$8,5713,32%06.0901.09 Corporate reporting season 29.08.2022 - 4.09.202229.08Heico (HEI), Catalent (CTLT)H World Group (HTHT), Joyy (YY)30.08HP (HPQ), Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), Crowdstrike Holdings (CRWD),Best Buy Co. (BBY), Chewy (CHWY), Chargepoint Hldgs (CHPT), PVH (PVH)Baidu (BIDU)31.08Brown-Forman (BF.A, BF.B), Veeva Systems (VEEV), Mongodb (MDB),Okta (OKTA), Cooper Companies (COO), Pure Storage (PSTG), Sentinelone (S), Donaldson Company (DCI), Nutanix (NTNX), Greif (GEF)01.09Broadcom (AVGO), Lululemon Athletica (LULU), Hormel Foods (HRL),Campbell Soup (CPB), Toro Company (TTC), Ciena (CIEN), Smartsheet (SMAR),Science Applications (SAIC), Ollie's Outlet (OLLI), Signet Jewelers (SIG)Weibo (WB), Hello Group (MOMO) Macroeconomics and major events 29.08.2022 - 4.09.202230.08GermanyGermany Consumer Price Index (CPI) (MoM) (Aug) USCB Consumer Confidence (Aug)JOLTS Job Openings (July)31.08RussiaWeekly inflationChinaPMIs (Aug)GermanyGermany Unemployment Change (Aug)EUConsumer price index (CPI) (YoY) (Aug) USADP nonfarm payrolls (June)Crude oil stocks01.09ChinaManufacturing PMI from Caixin (Aug)GermanyManufacturing activity index (PMI) (Aug)USInitial jobless claimsISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug)02.09USNon-farm payroll change (Aug)Rate of unemployment ...

American sportswear manufacturer Nike reported a profit of $1.4 billion in the 4th fiscal quarter of 2022, compared with $1.5 billion a year earlier. The company noted that overhead costs increased by 8%, to $3 billion, mainly due to investments in the direct sales channel.Despite the increase in revenue to $12.23 billion, instead of the expected $12.06 billion and the growth in earnings per share to 90 cents, instead of the projected 81 cents, compared to last year, the indicators worsened. Sales fell from $12.34 billion a year earlier to $12.23 billion. According to the company's forecasts, revenue will grow by small double digits this year. However, against the background of the risks of recession and stagflation in the United States, we question Nike's revenue forecast.In addition, Nike's board of directors approved a four-year $18 billion share repurchase program that will replace the current one by $15 billion with a validity period until the end of fiscal year 2023.Nike shares on the NYSE on June 27 decreased by 2.13%, on the postmarket the fall continued to $107.5 per ...

The market the day beforeOn June 24, the main American stock exchanges ended trading in the green zone. The S&P 500 rose 3.06% to 3,912 points. Nasdaq and Dow Jones rose by 3.34% and 2.68%, respectively. All 11 sectors included in the S&P 500 closed in positive territory. The leaders of the increase were issuers of the raw materials and materials industries (+3.98%) and communications (+3.93%). Energy companies showed the most modest growth (+1.53%).Company newsZendesk (ZEN: +28%) will be absorbed by private companies Permira and Hellman & Friedman in the fourth quarter of 2022 for $10.2 billion in cash ($77.5 per share).Carnival (CCL: +12.4%) reported worse than expected revenue, EBITDA and net profit for the second quarter, but was able to provide 91% flight load and high booking rates for 2023.We expectOn the eve of the IMF lowered expectations of US GDP growth for 2022 from 3.7% to 2.9%, and also revised the same indicator for 2023 from 2.3% to 1.7%. The Fed's forecast given at the June meeting was even more conservative and assumed an increase in real GDP by 1.7% in 2022 and 2023. The IMF noted a "significant risk" that the current obstacles to growth will be longer than previously expected. At the same time, IMF experts believe that the US will be able to avoid a recession, since an early tightening of the Fed's policy will help reduce inflation and protect real incomes of the population. However, last week, the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell, on the contrary, admitted that a recession is one of the possible scenarios. Some strategists are also raising the likelihood of an economic downturn amid the tightening of the Fed's rhetoric.As a positive factor, we can note a decrease in inflation expectations on the horizon of 5-10 years from 3.3% to 3.1. However, the consensus forecast still with a 95% probability allows the Fed to raise the rate at the next meeting by 75 bps. At the same time, central bank officials at the last FOMC meeting clearly made it clear to the investment community that they would act with an eye on the current inflation data.Trading on June 27 at the sites of Southeast Asia ended in the green zone. China's CSI 300 gained 1.13%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 2.35%, and Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 1.43%. EuroStoxx50 has been up 1.74% since the start of trading.Brent crude futures are quoted at $109 per barrel. Gold is trading at $1,840 per troy ounce.In our opinion, the S&P 500 will hold the upcoming session in the range of 3890-4000 points.MacrostatisticsNo significant macro statistics are expected to be published today.Sentiment IndexThe sentiment index rose one point to 29.Technical pictureThe S&P 500 continues its correction within the downtrend. The RSI has approached the neutral level. The benchmark may meet resistance near the psychologically significant level of 4000 points. Support is still located near the lower border of the channel.In sightOn June 27, the leading sportswear retailer NIKE (NKE) plans to publish the results for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2022. The company's revenue is expected to be $12.06 billion (-2.3% YoY), and EPS will decrease to $0.8 (-14% YoY). The financial results will reflect the pressure of constraints in supply chains, weak demand in China due to COVID-19 and increased costs for brand support and digital ...

Nike (NYSE: NKE) It reported better than expected for the second quarter of fiscal year 2022, although supply chain disruptions continued to put pressure on its results.The company's net profit increased from last year's $1.25 billion ($0.78 per share) to $1.34 billion ($0.83 per share), while the forecast assumed a decrease to $0.63 per share. Revenue increased by 1% to $11.36 billion, while the consensus put it at $11.25 billion.Sales in Nike's largest North American market increased by a maximum geographical breakdown of 12%. In Europe, the Middle East and Africa, growth was twice as low and amounted to 6%. At the same time, sales volumes in Greater China have fallen by 20%, and it is this region that remains key for the further development of the company, so investors monitor its results first of all. In part, the company explains the decline in sales here by foreign policy factors, as well as the impact of the pandemic, due to which supplies have become less stable. As Nike's management explained, the drop in sales in China also caused a reduction in production volumes due to the closure of factories in Vietnam and a decrease in inventories.At the same time, Finance Director Matt Friend announced the resumption of work of all sites in Vietnam, as a result of which the volume of output is approaching 80% of the levels recorded before the suspension. Nike management expects normalization of the situation with the offer by fiscal year 2023.Nike digital sales increased by 12% YoY, shipments via Nike Direct increased by 9% YoY. The company continues to actively develop its own sales channels.Nike has raised its estimate of its supply chain costs in the current fiscal year, but refrained from disclosing specific data. The revenue forecast for the current fiscal year has been maintained and assumes unambiguous growth rates, due to the consequences of the suspension of its factories in Vietnam.We rate Nike's reporting as strong. The company's prospects are generally encouraging, but there are still reasons for concern, including the dynamics of sales in Greater China and problems in the supply chain, which, however, it copes with quite successfully. Nike's successes in the direction of business digitalization are impressive. Nike plans to increase the share of digital sales to 50%, as well as the development of the metaverse and the sale of digital goods, for which we give an optimistic forecast. In our opinion, Nike has every chance to create a new sales channel that is guaranteed against disruptions in supply chains and will generate a high gross margin. Nike is able to take a leading position in a new and rapidly developing direction, which serves as the basis for raising the target price for its shares to $ ...

The market the day beforeOn December 17, trading on American stock exchanges ended in the red zone. The S&P 500 dropped 1.03% to 4,621 points, the Nasdaq fell 0.07%, and the Dow Jones lost 1.48%. The strongest decline was demonstrated by the financial sector (-2.27%) against the background of falling yields of treasuries and energy companies (-2.24%) due to the decline in oil prices.Company newsNovovax (NVAX: +11.5%) from COVID-19 has become the ninth vaccine approved by WHO for emergency use.The acquisition of Cerner (CERN: +12.9%) by Oracle for $30 billion may be closed soon.Rivian's net profit (RIVN: -10.3%) for the third quarter fell short of market-wide expectations. Investors are concerned about production volumes.ExpectationsToday, global financial platforms are showing negative dynamics. The day before, Senator Manchin said he would oppose the Build Back Better (BBB) bill. The voice of this parliamentarian may be decisive, since opinions in the Senate are equally divided. Joe Manchin once again expressed his concerns about the negative impact of the program on inflation and the amount of public debt. If there is a hitch with the adoption of the bill, then after December the Democrats will no longer be able to extend the extended tax credit for children, which became part of the incentive package adopted in early 2021. A decision on the president's proposed tax increase for corporations and high-income citizens has also not yet been made. Joe Manchin made it clear that he intends to continue negotiations on reducing the volume of the package. Moderate senators have proposed reducing the number of programs in the BBB, but this may meet resistance from progressives, who initially insisted on a much larger bill.The epidemic situation continues to worsen. The active spread of the omicron strain forces some European countries to tighten quarantine restrictions: from the resumption of the mask regime to the reduction of the validity of vaccination passports and the introduction of a self-isolation regime. American infectious disease specialist Anthony Fauci said that lockdown is unlikely in the United States, but doctors are forced to work in high-load mode. On Tuesday, Joe Biden will give a speech in which he will talk about the new steps of his administration aimed at combating the pandemic.Stock exchanges in Southeast Asia ended trading in the red. Japan's Nikkei lost 2.13%, China's CSI 300 declined by 1.5%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped by 1.93%. EuroStoxx 50 has been falling by 1.44% since the opening of the session.Brent crude futures are adjusted to $71.2 per barrel. Gold is trading at $1,798.3 per troy ounce.In our opinion, the S&P 500 will hold the upcoming session in the range of 4520-4580 points.Technical pictureThe S&P 500 index has reached a support level near the 50-day moving average. The RSI and MACD indicators do not signal growth. In the event of a breakdown of support, the benchmark may continue to decline to the lower border of the ascending channel.In sightToday, Nike (NKE) will release financial results for the second quarter of fiscal year 2022. According to the consensus, revenue will remain at last year's level, amounting to approximately $11.25 billion, and EPS will decrease by 19.2%, to $0.63. The New Year's Eve quarter is traditionally considered the strongest in terms of sales, so the reporting of the clothing giant will cause close attention from Wall Street. Also in the focus of investors' attention will be disruptions in supply chains and online sales figures, which increased by 25% YoY in the last quarter. The gross margin of the online segment is likely to increase despite rising costs. Apparently, Nike will still be ahead of Lululemon Athletica in this indicator.On December 20, the report for the fourth quarter will be presented by Micron (MU), one of the world's leading manufacturers of memory chips. According to the consensus forecast of Factset, at the end of this period, MU revenue will grow by 33%, to $7.7 billion, adjusted EPS - by 170%, to $2.1. We believe that the key drivers of growth in the short term will remain the same: there will be steady demand from providers of cloud services, streaming services, private data centers, as well as suppliers of smartphones and mobile solutions. In our opinion, investors' attention will be focused on management's estimates of demand in the PC and laptop segment: it was concerns about the slowdown in this direction that put pressure on Micron's quotes in August-September of this year. Investors also expect estimates characterizing the state of the DRAM and NAND markets in the coming year. With favorable forecasts, the company's quotes may grow. Before publishing the financial statements, we pre-evaluate the company's financial results neutrally. On the one hand, we believe that the medium-term estimates of the PC and laptop segments will worsen against the background of gradual saturation of the market. Also, next year, a slowdown in the momentum for growth in the smartphone segment is not excluded. On the other hand, in our opinion, the subsegments of cloud and edge computing, IoT and streaming will demonstrate positive dynamics in the medium ...

The market on the eveAt the auction on September 17, American stock markets showed negative dynamics. The S&P 500 index fell by 0.91%, to 4432 points. The Dow Jones adjusted by 0.48%, and the Nasdaq fell by 0.91%. Healthcare companies showed a slight increase (+0.07), and the cyclical consumer goods sector registered the smallest drop (-0.38%). The outsiders were utility companies (-1.59%) and the materials sector (-2.06%).Company newsMedical technology company Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO: +6.5%) raised revenue expectations for 2022 amid an increase in testing for COVID-19.The quotes of the investment management company Invesco (IVZ: +5.5%) rose on the news of a possible merger with State Street Corp.Shares of steel producer Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF: -5.2%) continued to decline ahead of the quarterly report, which investors are pessimistic about.ExpectationsAccording to the expectations of the investment community, at the upcoming FOMC meeting on Wednesday, Fed officials will more clearly outline plans for the timing of the beginning of the curtailment of QE. A little earlier, the regulator already indicated that the intermediate target for inflation has already been reached, and employment indicators continue to recover. Market players believe that the official rate cut will be announced in November, and this issue will be actively discussed at the September meeting.There has also been a sharp increase in energy prices recently: natural gas futures in the United States this month have risen by at least 17% and about twice as much as in March. A steady rise in prices will be felt in all industries and households, raising fears that increased material costs will persist and put pressure on consumption and production. The cost of gas is spurred by several factors at once. In the United States, this is the suspension of drilling operations and adverse weather conditions, and in Europe — the depletion of reserves, which led to increased demand for energy carriers and a lack of generating capacity in the wind energy sector.Against the background of the absence of obvious drivers for the growth of the broad market index, we expect today a neutral negative dynamics of the S&P 500, which corresponds to the trend of last week.Asian stock markets showed mixed dynamics. Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell by 3.30%, China's CSI 300 increased by 1%, Japan's Nikkei 225 added 0.58%. EuroStoxx 50 loses 2.24%.The risk appetite is moderate. The yield of 10-year treasuries is reduced to 1.34%. Brent crude futures are trading at $74 per barrel. Gold rises to $1,754 per troy ounce.In our opinion, the S&P 500 will hold the upcoming session in the range of 4380-4450 points.MacrostatisticsThe publication of significant macrostatistics is not planned for today.Technical pictureThe S&P 500 broad market index continued to decline for the second week in a row, reaching just above 4430 points. 4370 points still serves as an important reversal level, the breakdown of which can be the beginning of a movement to the next support level in the area of 4230 points. Nevertheless, the trajectory of the movement can still return to the range of the uptrend, the upper limit of which reaches the level of 4600 points.In the field of viewOn September 21, the world's largest developer of software for creating digital content, Adobe (ADBE), will present its financial results for the third quarter. According to Factset's forecast, by the end of the third quarter, revenue will grow by 20.6% to $3.84 billion, non-GAAP EPS - by 17.1% to $3.01. We expect that the company can exceed market expectations for sales growth due to the continued strong momentum of demand for cloud solutions, as well as against the background of positive dynamics in the segment of online advertising and online marketing. In our opinion, thanks to Adobe's exceptional position in the digital content creation software segment, the company will maintain stable double-digit sales dynamics in the medium term.The focus of market participants will be on the company's operating margin: previously, management predicted an increase in investments in R&D, sales and marketing. We also expect details of the issuer's development in the relatively new 3D and AR niches. In addition, in all likelihood, the management will present the details of the development of Workfront within the company.On September 23, investors are looking forward to the Nike (NYSE: NKE) earnings report. The footwear and clothing giant showed impressive growth in the previous quarter, and since then, comments from competitors such as Lululemon Athletica and Foot Locker have only increased enthusiasm in the industry.In particular, the sports brand Lululemon recently reported an unexpected acceleration in growth at the beginning of the summer, and Foot Locker said that there is no slowdown in demand for sneakers and clothing yet. Nike also recently increased marketing spending to $1 billion thanks to the resumption of live sports broadcasts. All these factors help explain why most investors expect new record sales from Nike this week. It is already known that revenue growth reached $12.5 billion compared to $10.6 billion a year ago.The main threat to this positive outlook, in addition to the economic downturn, is problems with stocks and supply chains. Nike will have to compete with other retailers who are looking for logistics capacity to fill their distribution network ahead of the holiday ...

NIKE quotes continue to move within the framework of strong growth after going beyond the protracted sideways trend. Moving averages indicate the presence of a short-term bullish trend for NKE. Prices have broken up the area between the signal lines, which indicates pressure from buyers of securities. At the time of publication of the forecast, the price of NIKE shares is 159.95. Within the framework of the forecast of the NKE stock price, we should expect an attempt to develop a correction and a test of the support level near the area of 149.00. Then, a rebound up and a continuation of the rise in the value of securities. The potential target of such a movement is the area above the level of 195.05.An additional signal in favor of the rise of NKE quotes will be a test of a broken trend line on the relative strength indicator (RSI), as we can see, buyers have been trying to break through this line for a long time. The second signal will be a rebound from the support area on the price chart. The cancellation of the growth option of the NIKE stock price quotes will be a fall and a breakdown of the 127.00 level. This will indicate a breakdown of the support area, as well as the lower border of the channel and the continuation of the fall to the area at the level of 100.00. We should expect an acceleration of the stock's rise with a breakdown of the resistance area and a close above the 170.00 level, which will indicate a breakdown of the upper limit of the bullish channel.NIKE shares forecast for July and August 2021Thus, the NIKE Stock forecast for July and August 2021 suggests the development of a correction and a test of the support area near the level of 149.00. From where we should expect a rebound and an attempt to continue the stock's rise to the area above the level of 195.05. The trend line test on the relative strength indicator will be in favor of the growth of securities. The cancellation of the NKE rise option will be a drop and a breakdown of the 127.00 level. This will indicate a breakdown of support and a continuation of the fall in the value to the area below the level of 100.00. As you can see, the technical analysis of NIKE shares indicates the probability of a correction from the current levels, but the continuation of the rise and the breakdown of the 170.00 level will form a very strong signal with the growth of the company's shares above the 200.00 ...

NikeLast week, Nike announced its results for the fourth quarter and the full year 2021.The value of revenue for the reporting period was fixed at the level of $12.3 billion - a new record for the company. The index has almost doubled compared to the same quarter of last year. The value of the company's net profit was $1.5 billion, while Nike reported losses of $790 million a year earlier. The value of the company's revenue increased by 19% over the year and amounted to 44.5 billion US dollars, and net profit - by 125% to 5.7 billion US dollars.The shares bounced from 126.70 and for the first time rose to $133.60 last week, and when the report was released, they rose in price, creating a gap. It opened at $152.40, after which a new high of $154.35 began. We believe that the growth of this stock will continue. We are moving the increase target from $160 to $190. FedEx FedEx Corp is also doing well. The issuer reported a stronger-than-forecast increase in profit and sales for the quarter. After all, the shares fell after profit forecasts below market expectations.The value of operating profit was $5.01 per share compared to $2.53 for the previous period. The value of revenue in the fourth quarter also showed an increase, amounting to $22.6 billion from $17.4 billion.Adjusted net profit reached $1.36 billion against $663 million. The value of the company's revenue increased by 30% to $22.5 billion.In anticipation of a positive report, FedEx securities increased. The security rose to $303.60, and then rebounded to the level of $262.60.If the shares remain at a level above $285, the growth of the asset will continue. Now the target for purchases remains the resistance zone of ...

Nike has announced the acquisition of a virtual digital goods store RTFKT. This deal will be Nike's next step towards the metaverse. Previously, the issuer has already taken measures to protect its trademarks in the digital space. According to the US Patent and Trademark Office, at the end of October, the company filed applications for the Nike name, the slogan Just do it, the swoosh logo, as well as the logos of Air Jordan and Jumpman.The acquisition of RTFKT also opens up wide prospects for Nike to sell digital goods: in fact, it is an absolutely new segment and sales channel. However, these are not the first steps of the company into the virtual world. In May 2019, the Jordan brand became a partner of the Fortnite game, where the characters wore Nike sneakers. The company has also collaborated several times with the online gaming platform Roblox.From Nike's point of view, the move towards the metaverse and digital assets looks reasonable and reasonable, because sooner or later gamers will want to have unique attributes for their character or avatar. To miss the opportunity to fill this niche is short-sighted.The business of selling virtual goods for Nike can become very profitable given the fast-growing industry. In addition, the costs of producing virtual goods are not comparable to real ones, while the company will not experience the supply chain problems that it is currently facing. In our opinion, as soon as Nike receives patents, it will begin an active expansion into the virtual space. This will be an additional driver for long-term growth and will further strengthen the brand's ...

On September 23, the clothing giant Nike (NKE: NYSE) published financial results for the first fiscal quarter of 2022. The company's sales for the reporting period fell short of Wall Street forecasts, which casts doubt on the impact of supply chain disruptions on the issuer's short-term revenue estimates. At the same time, Nike Inc.' s profit exceeded the consensus. In particular, the EPS for June-August was $1.16, which is 22.1% higher than last year, and also better than the consensus forecast of $1.11. Revenue increased by 16%, reaching $12.2 billion and falling short of analysts ' estimates of $12.465 billion.Sales in China increased by 11% compared to last year, to $1.982 billion, which is the worst result in geographical terms. Previously, this region was one of the most important sources of income for Nike. Sales in North America, the company's largest market, rose 15% to $4.879 billion, falling short of the projected $5.079 billion.The gross profit margin increased by 170 basis points, to 46.5%, due to an increase in the margin in the direction of Nike Direct (direct sales to customers), higher sales volume at full price and favorable changes in foreign exchange rates. Digital sales of the Nike brand increased by 29% year-on-year. The retailer invests in its own website and a set of mobile applications. The development of this direction was especially rapid during the quarantine restrictions, when many customers decided to shop without leaving home.However, the issuer has faced certain difficulties that may affect its performance in the future. Since mid-July, the company has been working with partially closed factories in Vietnam, where it produces about 50% of shoes and 30% of clothing. Nike reported that it ended the last quarter with inventories of $6.7 billion, which is almost the same as the previous year and slightly lower compared to the last quarter ($6.9 billion). The company said that its stocks are now on the way to warehouses, and the deadlines for completing orders have increased due to disruptions in supply chains.The development of digital channels is a long-term driver of business growth and reflects the traditional innovation that has always distinguished Nike among competitors. The success in the " figure" allowed the CEO to raise the goal for the share of online sales to an ambitious 50% by 2023. Previously, this figure was 30%. The CEO of the company has experience in carrying out digital transformations, so Nike may well succeed in the e-commerce market, and the pandemic has only become a catalyst for the process, changing people's habits.Nike's reporting for the first quarter showed that problems in the supply chains have already begun to affect the financial results, despite very strong sales in the previous period. Although economic activity is gradually recovering after the lifting of restrictions, the demand for sporting goods remains at a very high level. However, in the countries of Southeast Asia, the epidemic situation is worse than in other regions. As a result, quarantine restrictions at factories in Vietnam lead to an increase in the delivery time of goods. Thus, Nike does not have time to fully meet the increased demand for its products, which leads to a shortage of revenue.However, Nike's favorable profit indicators demonstrate that the direct sales channel to customers is actively developing and gives a significant margin increase. In our opinion, the difficult situation in the supply chains will continue in the second fiscal quarter, but strong demand and growth in direct and digital sales will allow the company to maintain the company's marginality at a high level. At the same time, the decline in growth rates in Greater China is of concern.Taking into account all the above factors, we leave our long-term target price for Nike securities unchanged, but we expect a slowdown in the growth of quotations in the next quarter. The target for the NKE stock is ...