Oracle Trading forecasts and signals

Since the beginning of the year, Oracle shares have grown by more than 40%, but the potential for further growth remains. The old-timer of the technology sector is experiencing a rebirth: in addition to maintaining a leading position in the field of databases, the company is actively developing areas related to backend infrastructure and SaaS.Among the drivers, it is worth noting the new product Autonomous Database-a cloud database service that should significantly reduce the cost of operations for users. One more important point: as subscription revenue takes up an increasing share of Oracle's revenue, and management moves from California to cheaper Texas, the overall profitability of the business increases.Oracle has an extensive product line that covers the needs of customers in terms of supply chains, finance, sales, HR and much more. About $46 billion of cash is on the balance sheet, which provides huge opportunities for development, including for purchases of firms in promising industries.According to the results of the quarter ended in May, revenue increased by 8% y/y. The operating margin increased by 2.5 points, to 47%. Management is going to become a full-fledged cloud hub for its customers, through which all the services necessary for business will be provided. Salesforce, which regularly acquires firms from various industries, is trying to do something similar. However, Oracle says that they have an important advantage over such companies: their product line was created on their own basis, and does not consist of a large number of diverse applications from different ...

Oracle quotes continue to move within the framework of strong growth and a bullish channel. Moving averages indicate the presence of a short-term upward trend in ORCL. Prices broke through the area between the signal lines up, which indicates pressure from sellers of securities. At the time of publication of the forecast, the price of Oracle shares is 86.37. Within the framework of the forecast of the ORCL stock price, we should expect an attempt to develop a correction and a test of the support level near the area of 81.05. Next, a rebound up and a continuation of the rise in the value of securities. The potential target of such a movement is the area above the level of 100.55.An additional signal in favor of the rise of ORCL quotes will be a test of the support line on the relative strength indicator (RSI), as we can see, now the values are testing the resistance line, there is a risk of a correction. The second signal will be a rebound from the lower border of the bullish channel. The cancellation of the option of growth in the quotations of the value of Oracle shares will be a fall and a breakdown of the level of 75.55. This will indicate a breakdown of the support area, as well as the lower border of the channel and the continuation of the fall to the area at the level of 65.55. We should expect an acceleration of the stock's rise with a breakdown of the resistance area and a close above the level of 89.55.Oracle shares forecast for July and August 2021Thus, the Oracle Stock forecast for July and August 2021 suggests the development of a correction and a test of the support area near the level of 81.05. From where we should expect a rebound and an attempt to continue the stock's rise to the area above the level of 100.55. The trend line test on the relative strength indicator will be in favor of the growth of securities. The cancellation of the ORCL rise option will be a drop and a breakdown of the 75.55 level. This will indicate a breakdown of support and a continuation of the fall in the price to the area below the level of 65.55. As you can see, the technical analysis of Oracle shares indicates the probability of a correction, but conservative purchases of securities should be considered near the lower border of the ascending ...

Oracle shares recovered to pre-pandemic levels in July last year, since then the quotes have had a strong uptrend. At the beginning of June 2021, a significant correction took place in the shares, but at the beginning of July, the quotes not only recovered, but also rewritten the historical maximum.Oracle is one of the largest software manufacturers, as well as a supplier of server equipment.In total, since the beginning of the year, the company's quotes have increased by 35.7%, and over the past 12 months — by 52.6%. Let's look at the latest events in the company and the immediate prospects after the record update. Events The cloudsLast week, the Department of Defense canceled JEDI's 10-year cloud computing contract with Microsoft. This decision was lobbied by Amazon and Oracle in court, now Oracle can take part in a new tender.The question of further development of the company has been at an impasse for a long time. But earlier this year, Oracle made important steps in cloud technologies to reduce the significant backlog from larger representatives of the industry.So, in the database software, the main innovation was the Autonomous Database system. It is a cloud-based product that uses machine learning and artificial intelligence to automate security, backup, install updates and other tasks that usually require an army of administrators. First of all, this reduces costs for the company itself and gives it additional income.Last month, the company released financial results for the quarter ended in May 2021. It highlighted important points of income growth:Application Portfolio: Revenue of Fusion ERP (financial software for large companies) increased by 46%. Fusion HCM (personnel management software for large companies) increased by 35%. NetSuite ERP (financial software for small businesses) increased by 26%.The cloud infrastructure business, including Oracle Cloud and Autonomous Database software, has grown by more than 100%.Whether Oracle will be able to compete for the Pentagon contract is still unknown, since not all companies meet its conditions - but Oracle has been saying for years that its cloud solutions meet the technical requirements of the government.If Oracle takes the contract, it will not have a significant impact on revenue, but it will be evidence that the company is able to compete with Amazon AWS and Microsoft Azure. Such an intrigue pushes the quotes and attracts the interest of investors. Extensions During the publication of the report, the company announced an increase in capital expenditures. In the 2022 fiscal year, they have almost doubled from the level of the 2021 fiscal year and will amount to $4 billion. Although Oracle claims its competitive advantage, it still does not have a significant share of the "cloud" market.It is difficult to evaluate the results, since investors do not have a complete picture of income. Above, we talked about significant growth in different segments, but total revenue increased by only 4% Y/Y.A positive factor is a fairly significant free cash flow, which in 2021 amounted to $13.8 billion. In the past, thanks to him, the company was able to support the repurchase program: since 2011, the number of shares has decreased from 5 billion to 2.9 billion. And the company has been paying dividends since 2009, constantly increasing them. At the beginning of 2021, the company increased its annual dividend from $0.96 to $1.28.The expenses are still more than the FCF, which forced the company to use promissory notes. An increase in current capital expenditures and in general all expenses may trigger a reduction in the repurchase program or an increase in debts. Technical picture Oracle shares have been in a steep uptrend since last summer. The recent rise contributed to the entry of the daily and weekly RSI into the overbought zone. On the daily basis, there is a bearish divergence (orange line) at all.After a significant rise, a correction naturally begins, and this case is no exception. If buyers do not ignore the overbought, and no new drivers are received, the price may soon drop to $84 and move to the test of the 21-day moving average. When descending below $76, we can talk about a new benchmark for a decline - $72-68.If the company still wins the tender and continues to capture the cloud technology market, then in the future this will be an excellent driver for continuing growth to $100, while there is no complete confidence in this. Is it worth buying The risks for correction are now high, so the input from the current levels looks excessive. Moreover, the price is already higher than the average target of analysts - $81.6, but they vary within $60-115. 19 of the 28 recommendations of analysts-hold, only 5-buy and 2-sell.Oracle needs something more than a possible contract with the Pentagon, although it can increase the investment attractiveness of the company. As long as there is uncertainty in this issue, investors will closely monitor events and increase volatility in ...

Let's just say that oracle is not the strongest paper in the technology industry. The issuer has been building software for businesses for 40 years, showing weak sales growth compared to giants such as Amazon and Microsoft. Oracle executives are often criticized for often organizing buyouts rather than expanding their core business.Relatively Everything. Yes, compared to tech mastodons like apple and Amazon, Oracle's profits are small, while Oracle's DBMS share has grown 75% over the past 5 years, and total corporate profits, including reinvested dividends, have been around 90%. Note that this company is considered more resilient than other aging tech giants like IBM and others.A few words about the company and its business. Oracle Corporation, based in the United States, is a major server hardware and software company. The company specializes in database management systems, middleware, and business applications. The most famous is the Oracle Database software, which the company has published since its inception.The company operates in three main segments.1st segment of cloud and on-premises software. In this segment, the company develops such areas as the SaaS solution (software as a service), PaaS models (platform as a service), IaaS, infrastructure as a service (cloud structure as a service), as well as software license renewal and product support.Hardware segment. In this segment, the company is active in two areas: the development of hardware products and their support.Service segment. This segment includes a wide range of services, such as support, advice, training, etc The secret of the company's successThe company posted impressive growth figures in its recent earnings report as the pandemic set low payouts for 2020. While experts say the transition from Oracle to the cloud is slow, the tech giant is reaping the rewards of its acquisitions and investments. Its shares are still trading at a moderate P / E ratio of 17, with more than $ 37 billion in cash.What is the secret of the company's success? First, Oracle has moved its enterprise software to cloud services. The transition proved difficult, but the expansion of cloud services driven by major acquisitions such as NetSuite eventually offset slower growth in on-premises software sales.Second, Oracle spent most of its free cash flow (FCF) on the repurchase, not the dividend. Over the past decade, the issuer has reduced its shares by almost 42 percent, which has steadily increased earnings per share and the share price. Why does the company buy up cloud servicesOracle, like IBM and other older software companies, has reached its limits over the past few decades. The market was divided, and nothing seemed to change the balance of power. Everything changed with the advent of the SaaS service. The new service immediately became widespread, it is easy to install, update, configure. The emergence of SaaS destroyed the old business structures and drew the line "before" and "after".This paradigm shift has forced the old tech giants to play by new rules. Some companies, such as Microsoft, have been successful. Others, such as IBM, have failed. The transition to the Oracle cloud was more successful than IBM, but less impressive than Microsoft.The turning point for Oracle was the migration of the on-premises database and enterprise software to the cloud, as well as the acquisition of cloud-related companies.Gradually, Oracle's revenue began to grow. So, in the first half of the 2021 fiscal year (which began in May last year), this indicator increased by 2%. The expansion of cloud services compensated for the slowdown in local operations. In the new financial year, experts expect an increase in revenue by 3%. Stable operating profitability OracleOracle's non-GAAP operating margin remained unchanged at 44% in fiscal years 2019 and 2020. In the first half of 2021, it increased from 42% to 46% year-on-year, as operating expenses fell by 5%.This margin increase shows that Oracle is not spending too much money on moving to the cloud, and that this continues to affect prices in the enterprise software market. Oracle buys back its sharesExperts often say that the repurchase of shares of Oracle, on which the company spent 100% of free cash flow over the past 12 months, was used to increase the value of the shares against the background of low profits.Of course, the Oracle share buyback was also necessary. Thus, over the past 10 years, the issuer has reduced the number of shares issued by it by almost 42%. This approach has proven successful compared to other technology companies, which have often used buybacks to avoid diluting capital by issuing new securities.According to analysts, if Oracle continues to buy back its shares and supports sales growth, it can increase the company's profit by 13% in 2021 and by 7% in 2022. By comparison, IBM, which has reduced share buybacks over the past two years, is still struggling with declining profits and losses. Buy or sell Oracle shares?Oracle is trading at 14 times forward earnings and is ready to pay a dividend of 1.5% per annum. Dividend payments have remained unchanged over the past two years, but this low payout rate of 28% gives the issuer the opportunity to start increasing them in the future.Such a low valuation and decent profitability make this company attractive for investment, especially if rising US interest rates and other macroeconomic factors force investors to abandon more expensive shares of technology companies.This does not mean that the oracle is an ideal investment document. The company has questions, but they intend to solve them. This company is focused on growth and easily overcomes any financial crisis. We think that from time to time it is worth betting on a marathon runner, not a sprinter, and investing in oracle is exactly what you need.Overall revenue growth accelerated to 3% in recent months, compared with 2% growth in the last two quarters. That figure was $10.1 billion, against expectations of $10.07 billion.The company is opening new data centers to strengthen its position in competition with cloud computing leaders Microsoft, Amazon and Google.Slowly but surely, it will achieve all its goals, which makes these stocks a good choice for a long-term investment.Shares of this company with short stops and pullbacks have been steadily growing since January. The latest growth momentum has just ended. Buyers did not have enough strength to capture the level of $84.70. The asset retreated to the level of $83.00 and now wants to grow again.If we look at the history, we can see that long pullbacks are not typical for this paper. We suggest buying the company's shares from the current levels with a medium-term goal of around ...