AUD/USD: annual inflation rate in Australia decreased to 5.4%
In light of the strengthening of the US dollar, the AUD/USD pair is undergoing a correction at the level of 0.6365. Despite the weak start of the week, local growth has now been noticed.
The fall was caused by low indicators of the Australian macroeconomics: the index of business activity in manufacturing decreased from 48.7 to 48.0 points, and in the service sector fell from 51.8 to 47.6 points. However, the latest inflation figures for the third quarter showed an increase in the price index by 1.2% compared to the previous 0.8%, but the annual figure decreased from 6.0% to 5.4%. This is primarily due to the reduction in the cost of durable goods and services, which had a positive impact on the Australian dollar in the short term.
The US currency is approaching the level of 106,000 in the USD Index, thanks to statistics on business activity exceeding forecasts. The indicator in the manufacturing sector reached 50.0 points, soaring above the expected 49.5 points and the previous 49.8 points. In the service sector, the indicator showed 50.9 points against the predicted 49.8 points and the previous 50.1 points. These data supported the strengthening of the US dollar.
- Support levels: 0.6340, 0.6250.
- Resistance levels: 0.6430, 0.6520.
NZD/USD: quotes tend to strengthen the uptrend
During the Asian trading session, the NZD/USD pair shows moderate growth, continuing the weakly pronounced uptrend that began to form at the beginning of this week. The currency pair is approaching the level of 0.5850, waiting for incentives for further movement.
Assumptions that the US Federal Reserve will maintain its current monetary policy next week and may postpone an interest rate hike until the launch of a monetary easing program next year create some pressure on the US dollar. This is confirmed by positive macroeconomic statistics: for example, the recent October index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from S&P Global was adjusted from 49.8 points to 50 points, which exceeded the expectations of analysts who predicted a decline to 49.5 points. And the indicator in the service sector increased from 50.1 points to 50.9 points, exceeding the forecast of 49.9 points.
- Resistance levels: 0.5858, 0.5879, 0.5900, 0.5920.
- Support levels: 0.5830, 0.5800, 0.5750, 0.5720.
Gold price analysis
Over the past two weeks, XAU/USD quotes have risen noticeably, reaching a peak at 1997.00, however, a correction has recently been observed, and they are currently set around 1968.75.
The increasing trend was largely caused by the intensification of the military conflict between Israel and Hamas, which led to instability in the market and increased investor interest in safe assets. The current stage of consolidation is associated with uncertainty about the further development of the situation. The United States and some other states are working hard on a diplomatic solution to the conflict. With the success of these efforts, the value of precious metals may experience a decline. Nevertheless, at the moment the Israeli side is actively preparing a ground invasion of Gaza. If such a decision is made, it will significantly increase tensions in the region and may disrupt the current balance of power. In such a scenario, investors may again prefer gold as a reliable asset, which will increase its value.
- Resistance levels: 2000.00, 2031.35.
- Support levels: 1937.50, 1894.00, 1875.00.
Crude Oil market analysis
North American WTI Crude Oil is experiencing a correction and is trading at 83.52, reacting to information about China's new energy policy.
China has decided to reduce imports of expensive raw materials from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, while increasing purchases of oil from countries under international sanctions, such as Russia, Venezuela and Iran. In September, the total volume of hydrocarbon reserves fell by 240.0 thousand barrels, while an increase of 1.32 million barrels was previously recorded. It is also worth noting that China is increasing the production of petroleum products, reaching an indicator of 15.48 million barrels per day and processing 63.62 million tons of oil in September. These products are intended for export to Asian markets.
Meanwhile, oil reserves in the United States continue to decrease. According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), after a decrease of 4.383 million barrels last week, inventories decreased by another 2.668 million barrels. It is expected that today's reports from the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (EIA) will confirm this trend, the expected figure is a decrease of 1.168 million barrels.
- Resistance levels: 85.50, 89.50.
- Support levels: 81.94, 77.50.