NZD/USD: retail sales in New Zealand decreased by 1.9% in the fourth quarter
In the conditions of low indicators of the New Zealand economy, the NZD/USD currency pair could not hold its position at the reached monthly highs, heading for a decline to the level of 0.6161.
Retail sales in New Zealand for the fourth quarter showed a decline of 1.9%, continuing the downward trend that has been observed over the past seven quarters. The decline was recorded in fourteen of the fifteen analyzed sectors, with the largest decrease in sales of fuel (-3.6%), alcoholic beverages (-2.5%) and catering (-2.4%). At the same time, only the pharmaceutical sector showed an increase of 0.3%. The alcohol retail sector has experienced the largest decline in the last fifteen years, with a total decrease in the available range of 477 million liters, which is 4.3% less than a year earlier.
Today, the US dollar is trading at 103.60 on the USDX index. An increase in trading activity is expected due to the release of data on orders for durable goods at 15:00 GMT+2, where a correction from 0.0% to -4.9% is forecast for January, and the base indicator may change from 0.6% to 0.2%. Such unfavorable indicators can seriously affect the value of the US dollar, given its growth since May.
- Resistance levels: 0.6200, 0.6300.
- Support levels: 0.6130, 0.6050.
AUD/USD: announcement of the January Australian Consumer Price Index
The AUD/USD currency pair shows a slight strengthening, recovering from the initial drop this week. The pair is currently testing the possibility of a breakout of the 0.6540 level, while the market is waiting for new catalysts.
January data on the Australian consumer price index will be released on Tuesday at 2:30 GMT +2. Forecasts point to an increase in the index from 3.4% to 3.6%, which signals an increase in inflationary pressure, although it remains within the Reserve Bank of Australia's target range of 2.0–3.0%. If the forecasts are confirmed, the RBA may extend the period of high interest rates. Also on this day, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce its decision on the key rate, presumably leaving it at 5.50%, while the bank's statement is expected to comment on the current economic climate and prospects amid international tensions.
Retail sales and lending data are scheduled to be released in Australia on Thursday. Retail sales are expected to increase by 1.5% in January after a previous decline of 2.7%. It is assumed that lending to the private sector in January will increase by 0.4% per month and by 4.8% per year, while the volume of private capital investments for the fourth quarter of 2023 may show a slight decrease from 0.6% to 0.5%.
- Resistance levels: 0.6551, 0.6578, 0.6600, 0.6630.
- Support levels: 0.6524, 0.6500, 0.6468, 0.6442.
Gold Market Analysis
The price of gold shows an ambiguous movement, being near the 2030.00 mark, having failed to set new minimum values on the previous trading day.
The US dollar has an impact on the price of gold, strengthening against the background of decreasing investor expectations regarding the rapid transition of the US Federal Reserve System to a more lenient monetary policy. Traders, in turn, are cautious in opening new positions, in anticipation of key inflation data. It is expected that on Thursday, February 29, an important report on personal consumption expenditures will be published for the Fed, which assumes a decrease in the base price index from 2.9% to 2.8% year-on-year and a slight increase from 0.2% to 0.4% per month. Also on this day, data on applications for unemployment benefits will be received, with a forecast of growth from 201,000 to 210,000 in the week to February 23, and speeches by Fed representatives Loretta Mester, Rafael Bostic and Ostan Goolsby are scheduled.
Meanwhile, the reaction of gold prices may follow the publication of data on consumer inflation in the eurozone by the end of the week, although the market's attention is mainly focused on the Fed's policy. There is an expectation that both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England will start cutting rates after the American regulator.
- Resistance levels: 2039.21, 2050.00, 2065.00, 2085.00.
- Support levels: 2030.00, 2015.30, 2000.00, 1987.29.
Crude Oil Market Analysis
During the Asian trading session, the price of WTI Crude Oil shows an unstable movement, being near the level of 77.50.
Analysts express the opinion that oil prices integrate monetary concerns related to a potentially prolonged period of high interest rates from the US Federal Reserve. According to experts from The Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the risk of supplies through the Red Sea is assessed as moderate, with an added value of about $ 2 per barrel, indicating the limited impact of Houthi activity from Yemen on current oil prices. However, recently the Ansar Allah group attempted an attack on the American tanker Torm Thor in the Gulf of Aden. There is also a threat of potential flooding of the bulk carrier Rubymar, carrying 41 thousand tons of chemicals, which could lead to an environmental disaster due to the formation of an oil slick 29 kilometers long in the Red Sea.
Today's analysis of the American Petroleum Institute (API) report on commercial oil reserves for the week up to February 23, where the previous publication showed a noticeable increase of 7,168 million barrels, will be important for the market.
- Resistance levels: 78.00, 79.07, 80.00, 81.00.
- Support levels: 77.00, 76.00, 75.00, 74.00.