AUD/USD: "bears" hold the initiative in the pair
The AUD/USD pair is experiencing a correction at the level of 0.6323 due to the stability of the US currency.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will present the recordings of the last meeting tomorrow, and market players expect to learn the details of the regulator's future monetary strategy against the background of rising inflation forecasts for the medium term. During the meeting, it was pointed out that inflation could rise to 6.4% by 2023, while experts from the Melbourne Institute anticipate an increase from 4.6% to 4.8% in the current calendar year. This is the first increase in inflation forecasts in 4 months, which may cause discussion of a change in the key rate.
Meanwhile, the US dollar is holding above the level of 106,000 in the USD index and, most likely, will start the current week with a slight decline, based on the latest data from the University of Michigan released on Friday: experts predict an increase in inflation in the US from 3.2% to 3.8% in October. Additionally, the consumer expectations index fell from 66.0 to 60.7 points, the consumer sentiment indicator decreased from 68.1 to 63.0 points, and the indicator of the current situation decreased from 71.4 to 66.7 points.
- Support levels: 0.6290, 0.6170.
- Resistance levels: 0.6370, 0.6480.
USD/CHF: the downward correction in the pair continues
Due to fluctuations in the US currency, the USD/CHF pair is in the correction phase, holding at 0.9012.
The franc is strengthening, even taking into account the mixed economic statistics from Switzerland: the September index of producers and import prices fell by 0.1% to 108.6 points. In the annual perspective, the change in prices for manufactured goods amounted to -1.0%, which is lower than the previous value of -0.8%, caused by a sharper decline in oil and gas prices than expected. There has also been a drop in the cost of cars, spare parts for them and clothing. While the price increase was seen only in the oil products sector.
- Support levels: 0.8950, 0.8820.
- Resistance levels: 0.9080, 0.9220.
Gold price analysis
The precious metal is in a downward trend, correcting after a sudden rise last Friday, during which new peaks were reached from September 20. The current mark of the instrument is 1920.00, in anticipation of new market incentives.
The growth of quotations is supported due to the increasing tension in the Middle East due to the intensification of Palestinian-Israeli contradictions. In addition, investors are analyzing the potential for further increases in borrowing rates by the world's leading banks, believing that the US Federal Reserve may have completed the current stage of raising rates, although experts do not rule out another correction by 25 basis points in November with a probability of 35.0%.
Last week's statistics may push the US regulator to further tighten monetary policy this year. The consumer price inflation index in September increased by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.7% year-on-year, exceeding forecasts of 0.3% and 3.6%, respectively. Data on the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan also contributed to the pressure on the US dollar: the October value fell from 68.1 points to 63.0, while 67.4 points were expected.
- Resistance levels: 1923.06, 1930.00, 1940.00, 1946.78.
- Support levels: 1915.00, 1907.40, 1900.00, 1892.75.
Cryptocurrency Market Overview
Last week, BTC/USD quotes noticeably sank, reaching the level of 26562.50 (according to Murray [2/8]). Nevertheless, there was a recovery over the weekend, and now the price is returning to the 27900.00 mark.
The price drop was caused by concerns about the possibility of a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve, especially after the news about the September increase in employment in the US (by 336 thousand) and the slowdown in the fall of inflation to 3.7% year-on-year. But the growth of quotations was stimulated by the news from Reuters that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) decided not to appeal the August court decision on the refusal of the GBTC trust from Grayscale Investments to convert into a bitcoin ETF. Experts from Bloomberg believe that although this SEC decision does not guarantee the immediate launch of a new instrument, the chances of a quick approval of the first spot ETF for the main cryptocurrency have become much higher. According to the most optimistic estimates, the new fund from Grayscale may begin work in January next year, and then it will be followed by seven more companies that have filed applications with the SEC to create similar products.
- Resistance levels: 28125.00, 28906.25, 29687.50.
- Support levels: 27250.00, 26562.50, 25781.25.