EUR/TRY: ECB holds rates amid slowdown in eurozone growth
As of October 29, 2024, the EUR/TRY currency pair is trading at 36.94, which is 0.07% lower compared to the previous trading session. The depreciation of the euro against the Turkish lira is due to the unstable economic situation in Turkey and ongoing problems with inflation.
The economic situation in Turkey continues to be under pressure. The latest inflation data (CPI) shows that annual inflation reached 61.5% in September, well above the target level of the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT). In response, the CBRT raised its key interest rate to 35% in an attempt to curb inflationary risks and stabilize the national currency. However, these measures have not yet had a significant effect, as inflation continues to put pressure on consumer activity, and GDP growth slowed to 2.4% in the third quarter. Against this background, political uncertainty in the country also contributes to the weakening of the lira, despite CBRT's attempts to stabilize the economy through tight monetary policy.
The situation in the eurozone remains less tense, but economic problems persist. The latest inflation data showed a decline to 4.3% in September, which is below forecasts, but still well above the target level of the European Central Bank (ECB). The ECB has signaled its readiness to keep interest rates at a high level, which supports the euro exchange rate. However, the slowdown in economic growth in key countries such as Germany and France is having a dampening effect on demand for the euro.
- Resistance levels: 37.14, 37.50.
- Support levels: 36.68, 36.30.
GBP/USD: the exchange rate is stabilizing in anticipation of new factors
During the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is held near the 1.2965 level. The pound is under some pressure against the background of statistics on retail price indices published by the British Consortium of Retailers (BRC): the annual rate accelerated from -0.6% to -0.8% in October, while -0.5% was expected. These data indirectly indicate a decrease in inflationary pressure, which may allow the Bank of England to actively reduce interest rates.
A report on consumer lending is expected to be published in the UK today at 11:30 (GMT+2). Net consumer lending is projected to decrease from 4.2 billion pounds to 4.1 billion pounds in September, and the number of approved mortgage applications will decrease from 64,858 thousand to 64,200 thousand. The downward trend in quotations is reinforced by business activity data published at the end of last week: the index in the manufacturing sector from S&P Global fell from 51.5 to 50.3 points, falling short of the forecast of 51.4 points, the index of business activity in the services sector fell from 52.4 to 51.8 points, although 52.2 points were expected, and the composite index decreased from 52.6 to 51.7 points.
The head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, noted that with the introduction of a national digital currency (CBDC) called "Britcoin", cash will remain in circulation. In July, the regulator stressed the importance of timely response to the rapid development of financial technologies and expressed readiness to use distributed ledger technology (DLT) in experiments, taking into account the possible consequences for the financial system.
- Resistance levels: 1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3150.
- Support levels: 1.2948, 1.2900, 1.2860, 1.2817.
USD/CAD: Bank of Canada targets neutral interest rate
During the morning session, the USD/CAD pair shows a slight increase, remaining near the level of 1.3900 and the peaks reached on August 5, amid lower expectations of a sharper reduction in the US Federal Reserve interest rate. After the rate was cut by 50 basis points in September, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell called for caution in further easing monetary policy. As a result, the markets have almost completely revised their forecasts for the meetings in November and December, and now the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut next month is estimated at about 85%.
Last week, the Bank of Canada cut the rate by 50 basis points to 3.75%, saying that inflation is expected to be at the target level, which creates conditions for further easing of credit policy. According to forecasts, GDP growth will be 1.2% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025, while the consumer price index is projected at 2.5% and 2.2%, respectively. In 2026, inflation is expected to fall to 2.0%. The head of the Bank of Canada, Tiff Macklem, stressed that the current measures are justified, since earlier the rate was raised quite decisively to curb inflation. He also noted the need to set the rate at a neutral level, which does not affect the economy, subject to consolidation of inflation at 2.0%. Thus, despite the continuing "dovish" rhetoric, traders have not yet received clear signals about the final values of the rates.
- Resistance levels: 1.3908, 1.3950, 1.4000, 1.4050.
- Support levels: 1.3862, 1.3838, 1.3800, 1.3765.
Gold market analysis
As of October 29, 2024, the price of gold is $2,747.50 per ounce, which is 0.54% lower compared to the previous trading session. The decrease is due to the strengthening of the US dollar and positive expectations in global markets related to the de-escalation of geopolitical risks.
The economic situation in the United States has a significant impact on the current dynamics of gold. Investors continue to closely monitor the actions of the Federal Reserve System (FRS), as the next meeting is approaching, where the issue of interest rates will be discussed. According to the latest data, inflation in the United States remains at 3.7%, which allows the Fed to maintain current high rates to control inflation. GDP growth data for the third quarter also turned out to be higher than expected and showed an increase of 2.4%, which supports the dollar's position. This puts pressure on gold, as the strengthening of the dollar makes precious metals more expensive for buyers using other currencies.
At the international level, there is an increase in demand for gold, as the central banks of a number of countries, including China and India, continue to increase their gold reserves. However, the recent easing of tensions in the Middle East reduces demand for safe haven assets, including gold, which also makes adjustments to price dynamics. In the short term, analysts predict that a possible reduction in tensions and stable economic data from the United States may put additional pressure on the price of gold.
- Resistance levels: $2,760.00, $2,780.00.
- Support levels: $2,725.00, $2,700.00.
EUR/GBP: Euro holds growth by the end of the weekThe EUR/GBP pair is showing moderate growth, continuing the upward correction started this week and holding near the local highs recorded on October 17.Investors' main attention is focused on business activity data for October in the EU and the UK. In the eurozone, the index of business activity in the service sector, published by S&P Global, fell from 51.4 to 51.2 points, although an increase to 51.6 points was expected. In the manufacturing sector, the indicator increased from 45.0 to 45.9 points, which exceeded analysts' forecasts of 45.1 points, while the composite index in the same sector increased slightly from 49.6 to 49.7 points, coinciding with market expectations. In the UK, the statistics turned out to be more negative: the index of business activity in industry fell from 51.5 to 50.3 points, against the expected 51.4 points, and the index in the services sector fell from 52.4 to 51.8 points, falling short of the projected 52.2 points. The composite indicator from S&P Global/CIPS also showed a decrease from 52.6 to 51.7 points. Additionally, the British currency is under pressure from a deterioration in consumer sentiment: the Gfk Group confidence index fell from -20.0 to -21.0 points in October.Market participants continue to closely monitor the development of monetary policy in the eurozone. Traders are still expecting a rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB), while forecasts for changes in the policy of the US Federal Reserve Bank are changing amid the increased chances of Donald Trump winning the presidential election scheduled for November 5. Meanwhile, ECB President Christine Lagarde said that final decisions on interest rates have not yet been made, and called for a cautious approach to possible adjustments. The head of the Bank of Portugal, Mario Centeno, on the contrary, called for a sharp rate cut of 50 basis points at the next ECB meeting on December 12.Resistance levels: 0.8350, 0.8359, 0.8370, 0.8384.Support levels: 0.8338, 0.8326, 0.8310, 0.8294.NZD/USD: RBNZ reacts to rising unemployment and lowers interest ratesOn October 25, the NZD/USD currency pair is trading at 0.5996, which is 0.33% lower compared to the previous trading session. The New Zealand dollar continues to weaken amid weak economic data and actions by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). The bank recently lowered its key interest rate to 4.75%, due to a slowdown in inflation to 4.9% and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.1%. RBNZ is trying to stimulate domestic consumption and support exports, as the economy continues to show signs of slowing down.In addition, the pressure on the NZD exchange rate is exerted by the global trend in favor of the US dollar, which remains stable due to stable economic indicators in the United States. The main focus of the market is on the expected data on US GDP for the third quarter, as well as on the publication of the consumer spending index (PCE), which is a key indicator of inflation for the Fed. Inflation in the United States is stable at 3.7%, which gives the Federal Reserve reason to maintain the current policy of high rates.The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has issued a statement on its readiness to take additional measures to support the economy if domestic demand does not recover in the coming quarters. In turn, the strengthening of the US dollar is associated with confidence that the Fed will be able to control inflationary risks in a tight monetary policy environment. Any deviations in the GDP or PCE data may lead to increased volatility in the market and a change in the dynamics of the NZD/USD pair.Resistance levels: 0.6020, 0.6080.Support levels: 0.5950, 0.5910.AUD/JPY: Inflation in Australia is slowing, putting pressure on AUDAs of October 25, 2024, the AUD/JPY currency pair is trading at 100.64, which is 0.07% lower compared to the previous trading session. This decrease is due to the strengthening of the Japanese yen against the background of recent statements by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and weakening economic activity in Australia.The economic situation in Australia remains difficult. In the recent inflation report for the third quarter, the consumer price index (CPI) fell to 5.1%, which is lower than the previous 5.6%. This indicates a weakening of inflationary pressures, but the economy remains vulnerable, which forces the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to adhere to a cautious monetary policy. At the same time, the unemployment rate in the country rose to 3.9%, which is higher than analysts' expectations. In response to these economic challenges, the RBA is not yet considering an active tightening of policy, which also puts pressure on the Australian dollar.In Japan, the situation is more stable, but challenges remain. The Bank of Japan maintains an extremely soft monetary policy, despite an increase in inflation to 3.2% in annual terms. The level of business activity remains below 50 points, indicating a slowdown in the economy, but the BOJ continues to monitor bond yields in an attempt to support growth. This decision has a positive effect on the yen, increasing its competitiveness, especially against the background of the strengthening Australian dollar.Resistance levels: 101.00, 101.50.Support levels: 100.30, 99.90.Copper market analysisAs of October 25, 2024, the price of Copper is $9,367.25 per ton, which is 0.04% more than in the previous trading session. The price increase is due to continued demand amid supply uncertainty and the recovery of industrial production in key consumer countries such as China.The economic situation in China has a significant impact on the copper market. China, as the world's largest consumer of copper, continues to show signs of recovery in industrial production. The latest data on the index of business activity in the industrial sector (PMI) for September showed an increase to 50.3 points, which indicates the return of activity to a positive zone. The Chinese authorities also announced support for infrastructure projects, which led to an increase in demand for copper in the construction and energy industries. Investors continue to closely monitor the government's policy on stimulating the economy, as any measures to support production could significantly increase demand for copper in the coming months.In the global context, there are also concerns about the limited supply of copper against the background of geopolitical risks and possible supply disruptions. Problems in the extractive sector in a number of countries, such as Chile and Peru, affect overall production and keep prices high. Chilean mines are facing protests and operational difficulties, which limit copper exports, while in Peru, logistics and labor problems continue to constrain supply volumes.Resistance levels: $9,450, $9,600.Support levels: $9,300, $9,150. 
GBP/USD: pound continued to decline amid weak economic dataOn October 24, the GBP/USD currency pair is trading at the level of 1.295, which is 0.077% lower compared to the previous trading session. This decrease is due to volatility against the background of UK economic data and expectations of the Bank of England's actions.The economic situation in the UK remains under pressure. The latest inflation data (CPI) for September showed a slowdown in growth to 5.9% in annual terms, which is slightly lower than the August 6.4%. However, inflation still remains well above the 2% target, which poses challenges for the Bank of England. The recently published business activity index (PMI) in the manufacturing sector fell to 47.8 points, indicating a decrease in activity in this sector. Against this background, analysts predict that the Bank of England may suspend further rate hikes to support economic growth.On the other hand, the economic situation in the United States remains stable. The main focus of the market is on the upcoming publication of data on business activity in the service sector (PMI) and consumer spending. The inflation rate remains at 3.7% in annual terms, which coincides with analysts' expectations, and the unemployment rate is stable at 3.8%. This allows the Federal Reserve System (FRS) to maintain flexibility in further tightening monetary policy. The market expects that the coming data may confirm the need to maintain the current rate level.Resistance levels: 1.2980, 1.3050.Support levels: 1.2900, 1.2850.USD/CHF: the market expects further actions by the SNB against the background of a strong francOn October 24, 2024, the USD/CHF currency pair is trading at 0.8766, which is 0.36% higher compared to the previous trading session. The growth of the dollar against the Swiss franc is associated with market expectations regarding the future monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve and global economic instability, which increases demand for the dollar as a safe haven asset.The Swiss franc, traditionally a safe haven currency, is demonstrating stability amid growing global uncertainty. However, challenges remain in the Swiss domestic market. The latest inflation data show that the consumer price level fell to 1.5% in annual terms in September, which is in line with the goals of the Swiss National Bank (SNB). At the same time, the SNB has lowered interest rates twice this year to support exporters and producers who are suffering from the high franc exchange rate. This decision is aimed at reducing pressure on the Swiss economy, but a strong franc still has a negative impact on the competitiveness of Swiss goods in foreign markets.Economists predict that the SNB will continue to adhere to a cautious policy in the coming months. Forecasts point to possible further intervention by the SNB in the event of increased pressure on the franc, which may lead to its weakening.Resistance levels: 0.8816, 0.8862.Support levels: 0.8727, 0.8680.USD/JPY: yen falls amid expectations of a tightening of the Bank of Japan's policyOn October 24, the USD/JPY currency pair is trading at 152.03, which is 0.25% lower compared to the previous trading session. The depreciation is due to new data from Japan and market expectations regarding the future actions of the Bank of Japan (BOJ).The economic situation in Japan remains difficult. Recent inflation data (CPI) showed an annual growth of 3.2%, above the BOJ's 2% target, forcing the Central Bank to reconsider its soft monetary policy. The Bank of Japan, headed by Governor Kazuo Ueda, continues to give signals about a possible change in the yield curve control policy (YCC), which strengthens market expectations regarding tightening measures in the coming months. This may support the yen by weakening the dollar's position.At the same time, the domestic market is also affected by weak data on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (PMI), which fell to 48.3 points, indicating a reduction in industrial activity. Experts believe that the BOJ's next steps will largely depend on inflationary trends and the stability of the labor market in Japan.Resistance levels: 152.50, 153.10.Support levels: 151.50, 150.80.Silvers market analysisAs of October 24, 2024, the price of silver (XAG/USD) is $34.21 per troy ounce, which is 1.60% higher compared to the previous trading session. The price increase is due to increased demand for precious metals, both against the background of ongoing inflation, and in conditions of geopolitical instability and a weakening dollar.The economic situation in the United States has a noticeable impact on the value of silver. The US Federal Reserve continues to keep interest rates at a high level, which contributes to some strengthening of the dollar. However, inflation remains at 3.7%, which forces investors to seek safe haven assets such as gold and silver. Important data that may affect the dynamics of silver are the upcoming publications on the consumer price index (CPI) and data on the US labor market. At the same time, any slowdown in the growth of the US economy may increase the demand for silver as a protective asset.In addition, the ongoing global challenges in the field of energy and industrial production support silver prices, as the metal is actively used in production and "green" energy. For example, increased demand for solar panels and electronic components strengthens silver's position in the market. It should also be noted that there is a shortage of supply caused by problems in the extraction of metal in a number of countries, which also supports the growth of its value.Resistance levels: $34.50 and $35.00.Support levels: $33.80 and $33.40. 
EUR/TRY: euro is under pressure after weak Eurozone GDP dataOn October 23, the EUR/TRY currency pair is trading at 36.9302, which is 0.17% lower compared to the previous trading session. The depreciation of the euro against the Turkish lira is due to continued pressure on the euro due to weak macroeconomic data for the eurozone, as well as improvements in the Turkish economy.In Turkey, the Central Bank (CBRT) continues to adhere to strict monetary policy, which supports the lira exchange rate. In October, the CBRT raised its key interest rate to 35% in an attempt to contain inflation, which reached 61.5% in September in annual terms. The bank also announced its intention to maintain high rates to stabilize the economic situation, which led to some strengthening of the lira. However, the domestic market continues to be affected by concerns about political stability and international pressure on economic policy.The economic situation in the eurozone remains difficult. GDP data for the third quarter showed weak growth of 0.2%, which is below analysts' expectations. Inflation slowed to 4.3% in September, but core inflation remains at 4.5%, well above the ECB's target level. The European Central Bank (ECB) adheres to a strict policy and signals readiness for further tightening if necessary. Against this background, pressure on the euro remains, as high interest rates continue to limit economic growth in key eurozone countries.Resistance levels: 37.2000, 37.5000.Support levels: 36.7500, 36.5000.GBP/USD: pound is under pressure due to a decrease in the PMIOn October 23, the GBP/USD currency pair is trading at 1.2974, which is 0.07% lower compared to the previous trading session. The decline in the pound against the dollar is due to volatility against the background of market expectations and upcoming economic data releases in the UK and the USA.In the UK, the market's attention is focused on the upcoming publication of data on the industrial business activity index (PMI), which, according to forecasts, may decrease to 48.7 points, indicating a slowdown in activity in the manufacturing sector. This is also confirmed by GDP data, which showed growth of only 0.3% in the third quarter, which is lower than analysts' expectations. Inflation remains a key factor, and the latest publication showed its slowdown to 5.9% in annual terms, which somewhat eased the pressure on the Bank of England. However, the continued rise in energy and food prices poses risks for further rate hikes in the UK, despite the slowdown in economic growth.In the US, the situation remains stable against the background of strong data on the labor market and inflation. Recent data on the consumer price index (CPI) in September showed an increase of 3.7% year-on-year, which coincided with forecasts, and the unemployment rate remains stable at 3.8%. Against this background, the Fed continues to adhere to the strategy of maintaining the current level of interest rates, which supports the dollar exchange rate. However, market participants expect new signals from the Fed representatives in the near future, which may have an impact on the further dynamics of the GBP/USD exchange rate.Resistance levels: 1.3000, 1.3050.Support levels: 1.2950, 1.2900.AUD/USD: slowing inflation in Australia strengthens RBA's cautionOn October 23, the AUD/USD currency pair is trading at 0.6677, which is 0.15% less than in the previous trading session. The depreciation of the Australian dollar is due to the deterioration of Australia's economic indicators and expectations of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) actions.The economic situation in Australia remains tense, despite the measures taken by the government and the Central Bank. Recent inflation data showed a slowdown to 5.1% year-on-year, which is lower than the previous figure of 5.6%, but still exceeds the RBA's target of 2-3%. In response to high inflation and weak economic growth data, the RBA left the interest rate at 4.35%, adhering to a cautious approach to further raising it. At the same time, the labor market is showing a weakening, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, which is higher than analysts' expectations of 3.7%.Economists' forecasts and comments from RBA representatives confirm the bank's cautious position aimed at maintaining stability amid global economic turmoil and falling commodity prices. The focus is on the upcoming RBA meeting and the publication of the quarterly inflation report, which may affect further rate decisions.Resistance levels: 0.6700, 0.6730.Support levels: 0.6650, 0.6620.USDX: US Dollar Index is stable at 103.47 amid expectations of US PMI dataAs of October 23, the USDX (DXY) index is trading at 103.47, almost unchanged from the previous trading session. This indicates a general stabilization of the dollar, which is associated with expectations of important publications in the United States and the stability of economic data.The economic situation in the United States remains in the focus of investors' attention. The latest data show that inflation remains stable at 3.7% year-on-year, which coincides with analysts' forecasts. However, market participants continue to monitor the Fed's actions, as the next meeting will be decisive for further decisions on interest rates. In a stable labor market, where the unemployment rate is stable at 3.8%, the Fed retains the possibility of tightening monetary policy if necessary. Today, attention is focused on the upcoming data on business activity in the services sector (PMI), which may affect the dollar exchange rate if the actual values deviate significantly from expectations.Economists expect that the growth of the American economy will continue to remain strong, which supports the current position of the dollar in international markets. However, according to forecasts, in November and December, the USDX index may adjust to levels around 103.1 and 101.7, respectively, which indicates possible volatility depending on the publication of data and the actions of the Fed.Resistance levels: 104.00, 104.30.Support levels: 103.00, 102.70. 
EUR/USD: euro is gaining ground, exiting the local decline zoneThe EUR/USD pair shows an uncertain movement, consolidating near the level of 1.0860. At the beginning of the week, market activity remains low, as there are almost no macroeconomic publications, and investors are focused on discussing possible changes in US monetary policy in the event of Donald Trump's victory in the upcoming elections. Market participants expect that the policy of high interest rates may be continued, and trade tensions between the United States and the Eurozone may escalate again. This may force the European Central Bank (ECB) to take measures to keep the euro low in order to preserve the region's competitive advantages.At the same time, the ECB is expected to gradually lower interest rates regardless of the outcome of the US presidential election. Last week, the European regulator reduced the rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to 3.40%, due to a slowdown in economic growth. In September, the annual inflation rate in the Eurozone decreased from 1.8% to 1.7%, while the monthly indicator remained at -0.1%, as in the previous month. The main inflation indicator also remained at 2.7% per annum and 0.1% per month.Resistance levels: 1.0871, 1.0900, 1.0930, 1.0950.Support levels: 1.0844, 1.0820, 1.0800, 1.0765.GBP/USD: pound is waiting for new impulses amid uncertaintyThe GBP/USD pair shows weak activity, holding near the 1.3040 level: the bulls maintain the upward trend that formed at the end of the previous week, but are waiting for new factors that can stimulate movement this week. Last Friday, the pound was supported by published retail sales data for September: the indicator accelerated from 2.3% to 3.9% in annual terms, exceeding the forecast of 3.2%. On a monthly basis, sales decreased from 1.0% to 0.3%, which was higher than the expected -0.3%. Sales excluding fuel also increased from 2.2% to 4.0%, ahead of the 3.2% forecast.At the beginning of the week, fresh data on housing prices from Rightmove Group Ltd put pressure on the pound. In October, the index slowed from 1.2% to 1.0% in annual terms, and from 0.8% to 0.3% on a monthly basis, which reduces inflation expectations.Representatives of the Bank of England, including its head Andrew Bailey, are expected to speak tomorrow. It is predicted that officials may support further rate cuts, given the slowdown in inflation and the softening of the policy of competitors — the Fed and the ECB.Resistance levels: 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3150, 1.3200.Support levels: 1.3000, 1.2948, 1.2900, 1.2860.USD/CHF: US dollar weakness persistsDuring morning trading, the USD/CHF pair remains in a state of consolidation, holding at 0.8648. The reason for this is the weak activity in the market, as traders are waiting for the appearance of fresh catalysts.On Tuesday, at 16:00 (GMT+2), the October index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond will be released, and representative of the Federal Open Market Committee Patrick Harker will also speak. According to expectations, Harker may express support for further reduction of the key interest rate. However, the impact of these statements on the exchange rate will be limited, as data from the CME FedWatch Tool indicates an 85% probability of a rate cut of -25 basis points at the Fed's November meeting. The upcoming US presidential election remains a more significant factor, which increases market uncertainty. If Donald Trump wins, analysts predict a tightening of rhetoric in monetary policy and a possible strengthening of trade restrictions.Meanwhile, in Switzerland, September data showed an increase in exports from 20.65 billion to 22.53 billion francs, as well as an increase in imports from 15.90 billion to 17.58 billion francs. As a result, the trade surplus increased to 4.95 billion francs from the previous value of 4.74 billion francs.Resistance levels: 0.8669, 0.8700, 0.8730, 0.8776.Support levels: 0.8641, 0.8600, 0.8570, 0.8541.Gold Market analysisAs of October 21, gold is showing growth, trading around $2.657 per ounce, which is 0.91% more than in the previous session. Investors are showing interest in gold amid the current global uncertainty and increasing demand for protective assets. The positive dynamics is supported by the weakening of the US dollar, as well as increased geopolitical risks.The economic situation in the United States remains difficult, which has an impact on the gold market. Recent data on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showed a decrease from 1.9 to -4.6 points, which increased expectations of further changes in the Fed's monetary policy. In addition, according to the instruments of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), the probability of the Fed's interest rate adjustment at the upcoming meeting is estimated at more than 85%.In Europe, despite the slowdown in inflation to 1.7% in annual terms, the European Central Bank (ECB) continues to hold interest rates at 3.40%, which adds pressure on the euro and supports demand for gold as an alternative asset.Resistance levels: 2670, 2685.Support levels: 2645, 2630. 
EUR/USD: markets expect ECB signals on further policyThe EUR/USD pair is near the 1.0510 level on October 18 and shows a slight increase of 0.24% compared to the previous trading session. Market participants expect the publication of inflation data in the eurozone and the decision of the European Central Bank (ECB) on the interest rate, which has a significant impact on the dynamics of the pair.The economic situation in Europe remains under pressure: the inflation rate in September fell to 4.3% in annual terms, which is lower than the forecast of 4.5%, but this figure remains well above the target level of 2%. At the same time, core inflation, excluding energy and food prices, also fell to 4.5%. Markets expect the ECB to decide to keep the interest rate at 4.0%, however, signals may be given regarding further tightening of monetary policy, which puts pressure on the euro.In the United States, market participants' attention is focused on publications on the state of the economy, in particular, on data on the industrial business activity index (PMI), which in October may drop to 49.8 points, which is below the threshold of 50 points, indicating a reduction in activity. Earlier data on inflation in the United States turned out to be lower than expected: the consumer price index (CPI) in September amounted to 3.7% year-on-year against 3.6% a month earlier. In addition, the unemployment rate remains stable at 3.8%, which also supports the Fed's confidence in maintaining tight monetary policy.Resistance levels: 1.0540, 1.0600.Support levels: 1.0480, 1.0420.AUD/USD: Aussie is strengthening amid rising economic indicatorsThe AUD/USD pair at the time of the trading session on October 18 shows an upward trend, holding near the 0.6380 mark, which is 0.67% more than in the previous session. The main driver of growth was the improvement of the situation in the commodity market, as well as the stabilization of the economic situation in Australia.The economic situation in Australia remains unstable, although there are signs of recovery. In particular, recent data on the unemployment rate for September showed a slight decrease from 3.7% to 3.6%, which was unexpected for analysts. In addition, retail sales showed an increase of 0.3% on a monthly basis, which also exceeded the forecasts of economists who expected an increase of 0.2%. An important point is the growing business confidence index, which reached 10.2 points in October, which is the best result since the beginning of the year.One of the factors influencing the growth of the Australian dollar was the recent statement by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on a possible interest rate hike before the end of the year. The bank's management continues to monitor inflation indicators: the consumer price index (CPI) for the third quarter was 4.9%, which is a higher level than predicted (4.7%). At the same time, the RBA expressed its readiness to further tighten monetary policy if inflation continues to remain above target levels. At the same time, the market expects the publication of data on business activity in the Chinese manufacturing sector (PMI), which may have an impact on the dynamics of the AUD/USD pair.Resistance levels: 0.6420, 0.6480.Support levels: 0.6350, 0.6280.NZD/USD: the pair is down on the back of news from New ZealandAs of October 18, the NZD/USD pair shows a downward trend, declining to the level of 0.5930. The pair lost about 0.45% compared to the previous trading session, due to a combination of weakness of the New Zealand dollar and the strengthening of the US currency.The New Zealand dollar continues to be under pressure due to weak macroeconomic statistics and expectations of a further slowdown in the country's economic growth. Last week, consumer price data (CPI) for the third quarter of 2024 were published, which showed a slowdown in inflation from 3.6% to 2.8% in annual terms. This figure turned out to be worse than market expectations at 3.0%, which increased concerns about an economic slowdown. In addition, the unemployment rate in New Zealand rose to 4.1% from 3.9% in August 2024, which also put pressure on the New Zealand dollar. Business economic confidence continues to remain at low levels, and the business activity index (PMI) for September fell to 48.6 points, signaling a slowdown in growth in the country's manufacturing sector.The Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) also signaled that it may revise its monetary policy towards easing, which added pressure on the currency. At the last meeting, the regulator left the key interest rate at 5.5%, but in his comments pointed to a possible rate cut in 2024 to stimulate the economy.Resistance levels: 0.5950, 0.6000.Support levels: 0.5900, 0.5870.Silver market analysisAs of October 18, 2024, silver quotes continue to show mixed dynamics, trading around the $22.30 per ounce mark after attempts to recover at the beginning of the week. The XAG/USD pair is correcting after a slight increase, which followed a sharp decline recorded last week. During the current trading session, the silver price increased by 0.45% compared to the previous session.The economic environment remains challenging, with an emphasis on expectations of central bank interest rate decisions and geopolitical factors. Investors continue to analyze the dynamics of inflation data from the United States, which affects the dollar's position, in turn affecting commodities such as silver. Last week, the US Federal Reserve announced the possibility of further easing monetary policy, which caused a wave of expectations among market participants. At the same time, inflation data (CPI) for September showed an increase in consumer prices by 0.4% on a monthly basis, which is slightly higher than forecasts, which supports the US currency and puts pressure on the precious metals market.On the international stage, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain a key factor affecting silver. Conflict situations, in particular around Israel and Lebanon, increase uncertainty in the markets and stimulate demand for protective assets such as gold and silver. At the same time, China announced new measures to stimulate the economy, including support for industrial production, which could potentially increase demand for industrial metals, including silver.Resistance levels: 22.50, 22.70.Support levels: 22.10, 21.90. 
EUR/CAD: Canadian inflation and oil affect the pair's exchange rateAs of October 17, the EUR/CAD pair is trading near the level of 1.4937 and shows a slight decrease of 0.02% compared to the previous session. Markets remain waiting for key economic publications on both the euro and the Canadian dollar, which gives the pair low volatility and cautious sentiment among traders.The economic situation in the eurozone remains under pressure amid a slowdown in manufacturing activity. In September, the business activity index (PMI) in the eurozone manufacturing sector fell to 43.4 points, reflecting weak business confidence, while in the services sector the indicator was 48.7 points. Forecasts for the upcoming data point to a possible further decline, which reinforces expectations of additional stimulus from the European Central Bank (ECB). At the same time, the latest inflation data showed that the core consumer price index (CPI) remained at 2.7%, while the overall figure was 1.8% year-on-year. Experts suggest that a slowdown in inflation may push the ECB to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, which will be considered at the upcoming meeting.On the other hand, the Canadian economy is showing growth in the energy sector. Oil prices, Canada's main export commodity, remain high, supporting the Canadian dollar. In September, the inflation rate in Canada was 3.8% year-on-year, and the unemployment rate remained at 5.2%. The Bank of Canada is expected to decide at its next meeting to keep the interest rate at 5%, but rising inflation may force the regulator to reconsider its plans. Additionally, the market is waiting for the publication of retail sales data in Canada, which, according to forecasts, may show an increase of 0.4% in September.Resistance levels: 1.0850, 1.0940.Support levels: 1.0800, 1.0720.AUD/CHF: the Australian currency is declining amid weak unemployment dataThe AUD/CHF pair at the time of the trading session on October 17 shows a slight decrease and is trading at 0.5940, which is 0.32% less than in the previous session. The pair is under pressure against the background of unfavorable macroeconomic statistics from Australia and stable data on Switzerland.The economic situation in Australia remains tense. The published data on the labor market turned out to be worse than analysts' expectations: the unemployment rate increased from 3.6% to 3.7% in September, while analysts expected it to remain at 3.6%. The number of employed decreased by 9.6 thousand, which also became a negative signal for the economy. In addition, the consumer confidence index decreased by 2.3%, indicating a decrease in confidence in the national economy. These data may prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to consider further monetary easing at the next meeting.From the Swiss side, the economic situation looks more stable. The latest inflation data showed a decrease in the consumer price index from 1.5% to 1.3% year-on-year, which confirmed the downward trend in inflationary pressure. This strengthens the Swiss franc, as the market expects the Swiss National Bank to continue its current monetary policy without significant changes. In addition, Switzerland's external trade balance continues to remain positive, maintaining the national currency at a high level.Resistance levels: 0.5980, 0.6020.Support levels: 0.5900, 0.5860.Copper market analysisAs of October 17, 2024, the price of copper shows moderate growth, correcting after a decrease the day before. Trading opened at $8,000 per tonne and is moving towards $8,080, which is 1.00% higher compared to the previous session.The rise in copper prices is supported by a number of economic factors. First of all, macroeconomic data from China, the world's largest copper consumer, had a positive impact. Thus, industrial production in September increased by 4.5% year-on-year, exceeding analysts' expectations of 4.2%. The business activity index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector also showed an increase to 51.2 points, indicating an expansion of activity in the sector. In addition, China announced measures to boost domestic consumption and exports, which supports demand for copper and other commodities. The copper market also faces risks related to the geopolitical situation in South America, especially in Chile, the largest copper producer. Amid protests and possible strikes in the mining sector, there are concerns about the supply of metal to international markets.Resistance levels: 8,100, 8,200.Support levels: 7,950, 7,900.Oil market analysisAt the October 17 trading session, Brent crude oil is trading with upward dynamics, again breaking the $90 per barrel mark, which is 0.5% higher compared to the last session. The main factors supporting growth remain concerns about supply constraints due to geopolitical instability in the Middle East, where tensions in the sector have escalated, including the most important transport hubs in the Persian Gulf region.The economic situation in the United States, the world's largest oil consumer, adds to the uncertainty in the market. According to the latest EIA report released on October 8, crude oil inventories in the United States decreased by 3.6 million barrels, reflecting steady domestic demand and affecting the prospects for price growth. At the same time, expectations for global economic growth remain mixed, as data from China show a slowdown in economic activity: The country's GDP grew by 4.9% in the third quarter, below forecasts, which also prompted a revision of oil forecasts. In particular, Barclays lowered its forecast for Brent to $93 per barrel for 2024, citing declining demand in both China and the United States.Resistance levels: $75.50, $76.80.Support levels: $73.00, $71.80. 
EUR/JPY: The Bank of Japan maintains a soft policy amid lower inflationThe EUR/JPY pair is trading around 163.10 as of October 14, which is 0.01% higher compared to the previous trading session. After volatile fluctuations at the beginning of the week, the instrument showed stabilization as traders continue to monitor the economic data of the Eurozone and Japan, assessing the prospects for changes in monetary policy in both countries.In the Eurozone, the economic situation remains under pressure due to a combination of weak industrial growth and low inflation expectations. According to the latest data published by the German Federal Statistical Office, industrial production increased by 1.6% in August, which is higher than forecast and gives a positive signal to the markets. Nevertheless, economic activity in the euro area remains weak: preliminary inflation forecasts for October show a level of 2.2%, which is lower than the average values observed in the first half of the year. The European Central Bank (ECB) is under pressure to take additional stimulus measures, given that economic growth remains below expected. In September, the ECB announced its intention to keep interest rates at the current level to stimulate demand and investment, but analysts do not rule out further easing if inflation remains below the 2.0% target and GDP continues to grow weakly.In Japan, the Bank of Japan maintains a loose monetary policy, while continuing to use low interest rates to stimulate the economy. September data showed a decrease in inflation to 2.5% compared with 3.0% in August, indicating a slowdown in the growth of prices for goods and services. Although inflation in the country is still higher than in previous years, its decline eases the pressure on the central bank to change the current policy course. Japan's main macroeconomic indicators are showing stability, but economists are paying attention to a slowdown in economic activity, which may require additional stimulus measures from the Bank of Japan. Recently, the head of the Bank of Japan noted that the regulator will continue to monitor the situation and is ready to maintain a soft policy to prevent further slowdown in economic growth.Resistance levels: 164.00, 164.80.Support levels: 162.50, 161.90.GBP/NZD: pound is declining, waiting for further signals from the Bank of EnglandThe GBP/NZD pair is trading at 2.0495 as of October 14, showing a steady downward trend with a decrease of 0.23% from the previous session. The market is influenced by the strengthening of the New Zealand dollar, supported by New Zealand's domestic economic data, and expectations for easing UK monetary policy.The economic situation in the UK remains under pressure. The published data showed an increase in unemployment to 4.2%, which is slightly higher than market expectations. The consumer price index (CPI) remained at 6.7% in September, signaling continued pressure on inflation, which may require adjustments in the Bank of England's policy. However, the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, noted that further interest rate increases will depend on the data, and expressed caution about accelerating the tightening policy against the backdrop of an unstable economy. In turn, the indicator of business activity in the service sector (PMI) amounted to 49.3 points, which is lower than the level of the previous month (50.2 points), indicating a decrease in activity in the sector.In New Zealand, the index of business activity in construction increased by 2.1%, which is higher than forecast. The increase in activity is due to increased demand in the infrastructure construction sector, as well as improved performance in the agro-industrial complex. The Central Bank of New Zealand is expected to continue to maintain a steady interest rate as the country's inflation rate fell to 4.9% in annual terms. Against the background of these indicators, the position of the New Zealand dollar remains strong, which puts pressure on the GBP/NZD pair.Resistance levels: 2.0550, 2.0600.Support levels: 2.0450, 2.0400.Silver market analysisSilver (XAG/USD) is trading near the $23.40 level as of October 14, showing an upward trend of 0.42% above the previous session. Against the background of recent economic events, this growth reflects investors' interest in defensive assets, as financial markets are increasingly responding to macroeconomic uncertainty and currency market volatility.Economic and political factors affecting silver include significant support from growing industrial demand. An important driver is the development of green technologies and solar energy, which actively use silver in the production of panels and other components. According to experts, the demand for silver in these sectors has reached 1.2 billion ounces and is projected to continue to grow. In addition, the political situation in the United States and the ongoing discussion of changes in Federal Reserve interest rates have an impact on the dollar. In anticipation of a rate cut by the end of the year, investors view silver as a profitable hedge against inflationary risks and a possible weakening of the dollar.In the global perspective, the silver market is also influenced by other factors, including uncertainty in the mining sector. Leading producers such as Mexico and Peru are reporting lower production, which limits supply in the market. According to Citigroup estimates, under current conditions, silver prices could reach $30 per ounce in the second half of 2024. In addition, investors who pay attention to the ratio of gold and silver see potential for growth, as silver remains relatively undervalued compared to gold. In the coming months, it is expected that with an increase in demand for industrial silver and an improvement in market sentiment, silver will be able to approach the level of $30 per ounce.Resistance levels: $24.10, $25.00.Support levels: $22.80, $21.50.Coffee market analysisCoffee prices on October 14, 2024 stabilized around $ 182.40 per pound, which is 0.52% higher than the previous day. This growth is explained by global economic factors associated with a reduction in the supply of coffee on the world market. The main catalyst for the dynamics of coffee prices is a reduction in yields in key producing countries such as Brazil due to adverse weather conditions. In addition, logistical problems and rising transportation costs add pressure to prices.In Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer, harvest expectations remain below average due to the dry weather in September. According to the latest data, the arabica harvest for 2024 is expected to reach 52 million bags, which is 5% lower than the previous forecast. Moreover, prices for fertilizers and logistics have increased significantly, which further increases the cost of production. Against this background, the Central Bank of Brazil makes comments on inflationary pressures related to agriculture. Interest rates are expected to remain high until the end of the year, which will limit manufacturers' access to loans to expand their capacities.In the global economy, the impact of geopolitical events also has an impact on demand for commodities, including coffee. Increased political instability in the Middle East and trade disputes between China and the United States are contributing to increased uncertainty in financial markets, which affects the demand for coffee in importing countries such as the United States and European Union countries. Nevertheless, demand from China remains stable, as the popularity of coffee drinks among Chinese consumers continues to grow.Resistance levels: 185.00, 187.50.Support levels: 180.00, 178.00. 
EUR/GBP: minutes of the ECB meeting in the focus of investors' attentionThe EUR/GBP pair is showing a moderate recovery, regaining positions after the "bearish" dynamics observed at the beginning of the week. The exchange rate is testing the 0.8380 level for an upward breakout, while traders are evaluating fresh macroeconomic data from the eurozone and the UK.In Germany, the consumer price index for September remained at 1.6% year-on-year, while the monthly indicator remained unchanged, fixed at 0.0%. The harmonized CPI index increased by 1.8% year-on-year, although it decreased by 0.1% on a monthly basis. Investors are also analyzing the minutes of the September meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB), where a reduction in inflationary pressure was discussed. Most ECB representatives called for further easing of monetary policy, despite the fact that inflation remains noticeable. At the same time, experts fear a possible slowdown in economic growth and admit that inflation may remain below the target level of 2.0% for a long time. The market expects that the ECB may cut rates twice more by the end of the year.The economic situation in the UK is also of interest. The country's GDP increased by 0.2% in August after stagnating in the previous month, while industrial production fell by 1.6% year-on-year, exceeding the projected -0.5%. At the same time, the monthly growth was 0.5%, exceeding expectations of 0.2%. The manufacturing sector showed a decrease of 0.3% compared to -2.0% in July, while monthly growth was 1.1%. Business activity in the services sector slowed to 0.1% in August, against 0.6% in July, which was below forecasts of 0.3%.Resistance levels: 0.8384, 0.8400, 0.8410, 0.8433.Support levels: 0.8370, 0.8350, 0.8338, 0.8326.USD/TRY: analysts predict a rate cut in JanuaryIn the Asian session, the USD/TRY pair shows a recovery after the unstable dynamics of this week, again testing the 34.2800 mark for an upward breakdown and updating the highs from August 28. The pair's movement is due to the publication of inflation data in the United States, which supported the American currency.Experts interviewed by Reuters suggest that the Central Bank of Turkey will change its plans to ease monetary policy. Out of ten respondents, six believe that the rate cut from the current 50.00% will take place in December, while four predict that it will happen in January. Most analysts expect an initial decrease of 250 basis points (to 47.50%), and one of the experts suggests a reduction of 500 basis points at once. These forecasts are in line with the expectations of economists from JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Industrial production data for August will be published today, October 11, in Turkey at 10:00 (GMT+2). The indicator is projected to grow by 2.5% compared to the previous month, which may strengthen the lira against the background of positive economic signals. At 12:00 (GMT+2), employment data will also be released, which will help assess the overall state of the labor market in Turkey and may affect expectations for inflation and the future policy of the Central Bank. In addition, tomorrow, October 12, at 11:00 (GMT+2), a report on Turkey's current account balance for August is expected to be published, which, according to forecasts, will show a deficit of $3.5 billion. This event may put pressure on the Turkish lira if the actual data exceed expectations, which indicates an increase in foreign economic risks for the country.Resistance levels: 34.3000, 34.3500, 34.4091, 34.5000.Support levels: 34.2325, 34.1800, 34.0939, 34.0000.USD/CHF: the decline in US inflation turned out to be weaker than expectedThe USD/CHF pair is at 0.8571 and shows potential for further growth, while the Swiss franc remains one of the most stable currencies among developed economies, thanks to stable macroeconomic indicators.The Swiss National Bank, according to a statement by its vice-chairman Antoine Martin, aims to continue reducing interest rates until the end of the year. Martin noted that key inflation and economic growth targets have been achieved, which allows the regulator to consider the possibility of another reduction by 25 basis points. This year, the cost of borrowing has already been adjusted three times, and in September 2024, the consumer price index reached the lowest level in the last three years — 0.8%. According to Martin, in the long term, the bank intends to return to negative interest rates, which, as before, will be an important incentive to attract investments into the economy.At the same time, the US dollar is at 102.60 on the USDX index, which is the highest since mid-August. A decrease in inflation in the United States from 2.5% to 2.4% in annual terms, while an increase in the basic consumer price index to 3.3% did not put significant pressure on the dollar. This dynamic may signal a further reduction in the interest rate by the Federal Reserve, but with minimal changes — by 25 basis points. Investors expect the Fed to make two such cuts by the end of the year, but San Francisco Fed Governor Mary Daley noted that the final decision would depend on incoming data, and the pace of adjustments could be adjusted.Resistance levels: 0.8610, 0.8750.Support levels: 0.8530, 0.8400.Oil market analysisWTI Crude Oil prices are showing mixed dynamics, remaining around the $75.00 per barrel mark. In the previous session, the instrument showed a noticeable increase, largely due to the publication of US inflation data for September.A significant factor supporting the quotes is the high demand for fuel in the United States, which increased against the background of a major hurricane that struck the state of Florida. In response to the approaching disaster, many oil companies have taken precautions by closing some platforms in the Gulf of Mexico. For example, Chevron Corp. It stopped the operation of one of its drilling rigs, which produced about 65 thousand barrels of oil per day.Geopolitical risks in the Middle East provide additional support for oil. Recall that on October 1, Iran fired more than 180 missiles in the direction of Israel, which was in response to the Israeli Defense Forces strikes on Lebanon, which killed one of the leaders of the Hezbollah group. These events raise concerns in the market about the possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, which is a strategic route for oil transportation: up to 21% of the world's daily oil consumption passes through it.Resistance levels: 75.00, 76.00, 77.00, 78.00.Support levels: 74.00, 73.00, 72.17, 71.60.