EUR/TRY Trading forecasts and signals

EUR/TRY: CPI data supports the euroDuring the morning trading on November 21, the EUR/TRY pair shows an upward trend, trading around 37.50, which is 0.3% higher than the level of the previous session.The economic situation in the eurozone remains stable. According to Eurostat, in October, the consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.2% month-on-month and by 2.1% year-on-year, which is in line with analysts' forecasts. The business activity index (PMI) in the manufacturing sector for November amounted to 51.5 points, which is higher than the previous value of 50.8, indicating a moderate increase in activity. At the last meeting, the European Central Bank (ECB) left the key interest rate at 4.0%, emphasizing the need for further monitoring of inflation risks. Retail sales data in the eurozone will be published today at 12:00 (GMT+2); analysts expect an increase of 0.3% month-on-month and 1.2% year-on-year, which may support the euro's position.There is a slowdown in economic growth in Turkey. According to the Turkish Statistical Institute, GDP grew by 2.5% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2024, which is lower than the previous figure of 5.3% and indicates a decrease in economic activity. Inflation remains high: in October, the consumer price index increased by 1.8% month-on-month and by 43% year-on-year. The Central Bank of Turkey continues to adhere to a tight monetary policy, keeping the key rate at 50% in order to curb inflation. Today at 10:00 (GMT+2), data on the unemployment rate is expected to be published; the indicator is projected to rise from 10.2% to 10.5%, which may put pressure on the Turkish lira.Resistance levels: 38.00, 38.50.Support levels: 37.00, 36.50.USD/CHF: dollar weakness strengthens franc's positionDuring the Asian session on November 21, the USD/CHF pair shows a downward trend, trading around 0.8870, which is 0.3% lower than the level of the previous session.The US dollar is weakening amid the publication of strong economic data that may affect the decisions of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) regarding interest rates. According to the US Department of Commerce, retail sales in October increased by 0.8% compared to the previous month, exceeding analysts' expectations of 0.5% growth. In addition, the consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.2% year-on-year in October, which corresponds to the Fed's inflation target. The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, John Williams, noted that inflation is gradually decreasing, and further interest rate cuts are expected in the future. Today at 15:30 (GMT+2), data on applications for unemployment benefits will be published: analysts expect a decrease from 220 thousand to 215 thousand, which may support the dollar's position.The Swiss franc is strengthening against the background of weak economic indicators in the country. According to Swissmem, sales of Swiss industrial products decreased by 4.2% in the first nine months of 2024, while exports decreased by 3.6% due to lower demand in Europe and the strengthening of the franc. In addition, the Swissmechanic survey showed that the business climate index for small manufacturing companies reached its lowest level since January 2021, with almost 75% of companies assessing the current business environment negatively. Today at 10:00 (GMT+2), data on the unemployment rate in Switzerland will be published: it is expected that the indicator will remain at 2.3%, which may support the franc.Resistance levels: 0.8900, 0.8950.Support levels: 0.8850, 0.8800.NZD/USD: inflation met market expectationsDuring the Asian session on November 21, the NZD/USD pair shows a downward trend, trading around 0.5940, which is 0.5% lower than the level of the previous session.The economic situation in New Zealand is showing stability with some signs of slowing growth. According to Statistics New Zealand, the consumer price index (CPI) increased by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter and 3.5% year-on-year in the third quarter. These figures completely coincided with forecasts, which indicates stability in the inflationary dynamics. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.0%, which is in line with market expectations. However, a decrease in the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (PMI) to 49.5 points indicates a slight decrease in activity in the sector.Additionally, retail sales data for the third quarter showed an increase of 0.8% compared to the previous period, which is slightly higher than the projected level. At the moment, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has kept its key interest rate at 5.5%, saying that monetary policy is in line with inflation and employment targets. However, given the possible slowdown in the industrial sector, experts suggest that RBNZ may reconsider its position early next year. October retail sales data is expected to be published today at 15:00 (GMT+2). Analysts predict growth of 0.3% on a monthly basis, which may affect the strengthening of the New Zealand currency in the short term.Resistance levels: 0.6000, 0.6050.Support levels: 0.5900, 0.5850.Platinum market analysisDuring the trading session on November 21, platinum quotes show a downward trend, holding around $960 per troy ounce, which is 1.5% less than in the previous session.According to the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC), global platinum demand is expected to decline by 6% to 7.66 million troy ounces in 2024, after rising by 26% in 2023 to 8.15 million ounces. This is due to a decrease in metal consumption by automakers and other industrial enterprises. At the same time, platinum production in 2024 is projected at 5.55 million ounces, which is 1% more than the previous year. Thus, the shortage of platinum on the market in 2024 may amount to 353 thousand ounces, which is three times less than in 2023.Platinum prices are also influenced by the strengthening of the US dollar, which makes the metal less attractive to investors. In addition, the growth of risk appetite in financial markets and possible trade tariffs from the United States create additional pressure on the value of platinum.Resistance levels: $980, $1000.Support levels: $950, ...

EUR/TRY: ECB holds rates amid slowdown in eurozone growthAs of October 29, 2024, the EUR/TRY currency pair is trading at 36.94, which is 0.07% lower compared to the previous trading session. The depreciation of the euro against the Turkish lira is due to the unstable economic situation in Turkey and ongoing problems with inflation.The economic situation in Turkey continues to be under pressure. The latest inflation data (CPI) shows that annual inflation reached 61.5% in September, well above the target level of the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT). In response, the CBRT raised its key interest rate to 35% in an attempt to curb inflationary risks and stabilize the national currency. However, these measures have not yet had a significant effect, as inflation continues to put pressure on consumer activity, and GDP growth slowed to 2.4% in the third quarter. Against this background, political uncertainty in the country also contributes to the weakening of the lira, despite CBRT's attempts to stabilize the economy through tight monetary policy.The situation in the eurozone remains less tense, but economic problems persist. The latest inflation data showed a decline to 4.3% in September, which is below forecasts, but still well above the target level of the European Central Bank (ECB). The ECB has signaled its readiness to keep interest rates at a high level, which supports the euro exchange rate. However, the slowdown in economic growth in key countries such as Germany and France is having a dampening effect on demand for the euro.Resistance levels: 37.14, 37.50.Support levels: 36.68, 36.30.GBP/USD: the exchange rate is stabilizing in anticipation of new factorsDuring the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is held near the 1.2965 level. The pound is under some pressure against the background of statistics on retail price indices published by the British Consortium of Retailers (BRC): the annual rate accelerated from -0.6% to -0.8% in October, while -0.5% was expected. These data indirectly indicate a decrease in inflationary pressure, which may allow the Bank of England to actively reduce interest rates.A report on consumer lending is expected to be published in the UK today at 11:30 (GMT+2). Net consumer lending is projected to decrease from 4.2 billion pounds to 4.1 billion pounds in September, and the number of approved mortgage applications will decrease from 64,858 thousand to 64,200 thousand. The downward trend in quotations is reinforced by business activity data published at the end of last week: the index in the manufacturing sector from S&P Global fell from 51.5 to 50.3 points, falling short of the forecast of 51.4 points, the index of business activity in the services sector fell from 52.4 to 51.8 points, although 52.2 points were expected, and the composite index decreased from 52.6 to 51.7 points.The head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, noted that with the introduction of a national digital currency (CBDC) called "Britcoin", cash will remain in circulation. In July, the regulator stressed the importance of timely response to the rapid development of financial technologies and expressed readiness to use distributed ledger technology (DLT) in experiments, taking into account the possible consequences for the financial system.Resistance levels: 1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3150.Support levels: 1.2948, 1.2900, 1.2860, 1.2817.USD/CAD: Bank of Canada targets neutral interest rateDuring the morning session, the USD/CAD pair shows a slight increase, remaining near the level of 1.3900 and the peaks reached on August 5, amid lower expectations of a sharper reduction in the US Federal Reserve interest rate. After the rate was cut by 50 basis points in September, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell called for caution in further easing monetary policy. As a result, the markets have almost completely revised their forecasts for the meetings in November and December, and now the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut next month is estimated at about 85%.Last week, the Bank of Canada cut the rate by 50 basis points to 3.75%, saying that inflation is expected to be at the target level, which creates conditions for further easing of credit policy. According to forecasts, GDP growth will be 1.2% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025, while the consumer price index is projected at 2.5% and 2.2%, respectively. In 2026, inflation is expected to fall to 2.0%. The head of the Bank of Canada, Tiff Macklem, stressed that the current measures are justified, since earlier the rate was raised quite decisively to curb inflation. He also noted the need to set the rate at a neutral level, which does not affect the economy, subject to consolidation of inflation at 2.0%. Thus, despite the continuing "dovish" rhetoric, traders have not yet received clear signals about the final values of the rates.Resistance levels: 1.3908, 1.3950, 1.4000, 1.4050.Support levels: 1.3862, 1.3838, 1.3800, 1.3765.Gold market analysisAs of October 29, 2024, the price of gold is $2,747.50 per ounce, which is 0.54% lower compared to the previous trading session. The decrease is due to the strengthening of the US dollar and positive expectations in global markets related to the de-escalation of geopolitical risks.The economic situation in the United States has a significant impact on the current dynamics of gold. Investors continue to closely monitor the actions of the Federal Reserve System (FRS), as the next meeting is approaching, where the issue of interest rates will be discussed. According to the latest data, inflation in the United States remains at 3.7%, which allows the Fed to maintain current high rates to control inflation. GDP growth data for the third quarter also turned out to be higher than expected and showed an increase of 2.4%, which supports the dollar's position. This puts pressure on gold, as the strengthening of the dollar makes precious metals more expensive for buyers using other currencies.At the international level, there is an increase in demand for gold, as the central banks of a number of countries, including China and India, continue to increase their gold reserves. However, the recent easing of tensions in the Middle East reduces demand for safe haven assets, including gold, which also makes adjustments to price dynamics. In the short term, analysts predict that a possible reduction in tensions and stable economic data from the United States may put additional pressure on the price of gold.Resistance levels: $2,760.00, $2,780.00.Support levels: $2,725.00, ...

EUR/TRY: euro is under pressure after weak Eurozone GDP dataOn October 23, the EUR/TRY currency pair is trading at 36.9302, which is 0.17% lower compared to the previous trading session. The depreciation of the euro against the Turkish lira is due to continued pressure on the euro due to weak macroeconomic data for the eurozone, as well as improvements in the Turkish economy.In Turkey, the Central Bank (CBRT) continues to adhere to strict monetary policy, which supports the lira exchange rate. In October, the CBRT raised its key interest rate to 35% in an attempt to contain inflation, which reached 61.5% in September in annual terms. The bank also announced its intention to maintain high rates to stabilize the economic situation, which led to some strengthening of the lira. However, the domestic market continues to be affected by concerns about political stability and international pressure on economic policy.The economic situation in the eurozone remains difficult. GDP data for the third quarter showed weak growth of 0.2%, which is below analysts' expectations. Inflation slowed to 4.3% in September, but core inflation remains at 4.5%, well above the ECB's target level. The European Central Bank (ECB) adheres to a strict policy and signals readiness for further tightening if necessary. Against this background, pressure on the euro remains, as high interest rates continue to limit economic growth in key eurozone countries.Resistance levels: 37.2000, 37.5000.Support levels: 36.7500, 36.5000.GBP/USD: pound is under pressure due to a decrease in the PMIOn October 23, the GBP/USD currency pair is trading at 1.2974, which is 0.07% lower compared to the previous trading session. The decline in the pound against the dollar is due to volatility against the background of market expectations and upcoming economic data releases in the UK and the USA.In the UK, the market's attention is focused on the upcoming publication of data on the industrial business activity index (PMI), which, according to forecasts, may decrease to 48.7 points, indicating a slowdown in activity in the manufacturing sector. This is also confirmed by GDP data, which showed growth of only 0.3% in the third quarter, which is lower than analysts' expectations. Inflation remains a key factor, and the latest publication showed its slowdown to 5.9% in annual terms, which somewhat eased the pressure on the Bank of England. However, the continued rise in energy and food prices poses risks for further rate hikes in the UK, despite the slowdown in economic growth.In the US, the situation remains stable against the background of strong data on the labor market and inflation. Recent data on the consumer price index (CPI) in September showed an increase of 3.7% year-on-year, which coincided with forecasts, and the unemployment rate remains stable at 3.8%. Against this background, the Fed continues to adhere to the strategy of maintaining the current level of interest rates, which supports the dollar exchange rate. However, market participants expect new signals from the Fed representatives in the near future, which may have an impact on the further dynamics of the GBP/USD exchange rate.Resistance levels: 1.3000, 1.3050.Support levels: 1.2950, 1.2900.AUD/USD: slowing inflation in Australia strengthens RBA's cautionOn October 23, the AUD/USD currency pair is trading at 0.6677, which is 0.15% less than in the previous trading session. The depreciation of the Australian dollar is due to the deterioration of Australia's economic indicators and expectations of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) actions.The economic situation in Australia remains tense, despite the measures taken by the government and the Central Bank. Recent inflation data showed a slowdown to 5.1% year-on-year, which is lower than the previous figure of 5.6%, but still exceeds the RBA's target of 2-3%. In response to high inflation and weak economic growth data, the RBA left the interest rate at 4.35%, adhering to a cautious approach to further raising it. At the same time, the labor market is showing a weakening, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, which is higher than analysts' expectations of 3.7%.Economists' forecasts and comments from RBA representatives confirm the bank's cautious position aimed at maintaining stability amid global economic turmoil and falling commodity prices. The focus is on the upcoming RBA meeting and the publication of the quarterly inflation report, which may affect further rate decisions.Resistance levels: 0.6700, 0.6730.Support levels: 0.6650, 0.6620.USDX: US Dollar Index is stable at 103.47 amid expectations of US PMI dataAs of October 23, the USDX (DXY) index is trading at 103.47, almost unchanged from the previous trading session. This indicates a general stabilization of the dollar, which is associated with expectations of important publications in the United States and the stability of economic data.The economic situation in the United States remains in the focus of investors' attention. The latest data show that inflation remains stable at 3.7% year-on-year, which coincides with analysts' forecasts. However, market participants continue to monitor the Fed's actions, as the next meeting will be decisive for further decisions on interest rates. In a stable labor market, where the unemployment rate is stable at 3.8%, the Fed retains the possibility of tightening monetary policy if necessary. Today, attention is focused on the upcoming data on business activity in the services sector (PMI), which may affect the dollar exchange rate if the actual values deviate significantly from expectations.Economists expect that the growth of the American economy will continue to remain strong, which supports the current position of the dollar in international markets. However, according to forecasts, in November and December, the USDX index may adjust to levels around 103.1 and 101.7, respectively, which indicates possible volatility depending on the publication of data and the actions of the Fed.Resistance levels: 104.00, 104.30.Support levels: 103.00, ...

EUR/TRY: euro is strengthening amid the weak economic situation in TurkeyThe EUR/TRY pair is trading at 37.71 as of October 8, which is 0.66% lower compared to the previous trading session. The instrument shows a decrease against the background of weak economic data from Turkey and increased volatility in global markets. Market participants are assessing the impact of the current macroeconomic situation, including changes in inflation and monetary policy of the Turkish Central Bank.The economic situation in Turkey remains tense, given the high inflation rates and the weakness of the national currency. According to the latest data, the inflation rate in September was 61.5%, which continues to put pressure on the purchasing power of the population and investor confidence in the lira. The central bank of Turkey recently raised the interest rate to 35% in order to combat inflation, which turned out to be higher than analysts' expectations, who had predicted a level of 30-32%. However, despite the tightening of monetary policy, the stability of the Turkish economy remains in question amid political uncertainty and lack of investor confidence in the effectiveness of current measures.The situation in the eurozone also has an impact on the EUR/TRY pair. The latest data on the consumer price index (CPI) showed a slowdown in inflation from 4.2% to 3.8%, which confirms a gradual decrease in price pressure in the region. At the same time, the indicator of business activity in the manufacturing sector (PMI) for September showed a value of 49.1 points, which remains below the level of 50, indicating a continued decline in manufacturing activity. The European Central Bank (ECB) adheres to a cautious approach to changing monetary conditions and, most likely, will not take decisive measures to reduce the rate until the end of the year, which also affects the exchange rate dynamics of the pair.Resistance levels: 38.12, 38.50.Support levels: 37.50, 37.00.USD/JPY: The Central Bank of Japan will keep its tough rhetoric until DecemberThe USD/JPY pair shows restrained dynamics, remaining near the level of 148.00. The day before, the instrument declined moderately, retreating from the local highs set on August 16. This movement became a natural correction after the significant strengthening of the US dollar last week.While the Fed, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank have begun to ease their monetary policies after aggressive tightening cycles to curb inflation, the BOJ's approach remains contrasting. Japan has been struggling with deflation and economic stagnation for a long time. In the second quarter, the national economy showed signs of recovery, helped by an increase in consumer and business spending. In August, core inflation reached 2.8%, rising for the fourth month in a row, and real wages have been rising for two months in a row, which boosted domestic consumption. As a result, companies have begun to shift the increased labor costs, which may create conditions for further rate increases. However, the Bank of Japan warned that many small and medium-sized enterprises are still facing difficulties, unable to provide sufficient profits to index salaries. Analysts do not expect the regulator to raise the rate at the October meeting, but the probability of such a move in December increases, provided that stable economic indicators remain.Today, the market's attention is focused on data from Japan. In August, wage growth slowed to 3.0% from the previous 3.4%, while a decrease to 3.1% was expected. Household spending decreased by 1.9%, while in July the indicator increased by 0.1%, against the forecast of -2.6%. The index of the current situation from Eco Watchers in September decreased from 49.0 to 47.8 points, and the index of forecasts — from 50.3 to 49.7 points.Resistance levels: 148.21, 149.50, 150.50, 151.50.Support levels: 147.00, 146.00, 145.00, 144.00.Gold market analysisGold (XAU/USD) shows mixed dynamics, consolidating near the level of 2640.00. Market activity remains moderate as investors continue to analyze the September report on the U.S. labor market, published last Friday.The number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector increased by 254.0 thousand, compared with the previous growth of 159.0 thousand, while expectations were at the level of 140.0 thousand. The average hourly wage rose from 3.9% to 4.0% in annual terms, which is higher than the forecast of 3.8%, while the monthly change showed a slowdown from 0.5% to 0.4%, which is slightly higher than expectations of 0.3%. The unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%. In general, these data confirm the stability of the American economy, allowing the Federal Reserve System to take its time with further monetary policy easing. At the same time, the market assumes that the Fed may cut the rate by 25 basis points in November and December of this year.Additionally, the demand for gold is supported by the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. After Iran launched a massive missile strike on Israeli territory, the country's military and political leadership promised retaliatory actions. This has increased tensions in the region and contributes to maintaining XAU/USD quotes at current levels.Resistance levels: 2655.00, 2670.00, 2685.56, 2700.00.Support levels: 2640.00, 2623.84, 2613.83, 2600.00.Oil market analysisIn the Asian session, Brent crude oil prices are showing a pullback from the maximum reached on August 13 at 81.00, and are testing the 79.35 level for a downward breakdown in anticipation of new drivers for further movement.Today, information from China put pressure on the quotes. At the briefing of the State Committee for Development and Reform (NDRC), investors did not receive specific incentives and support measures. Representatives of the committee expressed confidence that the country's economy will continue to recover and achieve its goals. However, the lack of concrete steps raised doubts among market participants about the sustainability of the current rally, as many expected more detailed actions from Beijing.Prior to that, oil prices recovered at the fastest pace in the last two years, amid increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Analysts at Clearview Energy Partners LLC presented several possible scenarios in an interview with Bloomberg. In the event of the imposition of economic sanctions against Iran by the United States and its allies for missile attacks on Israel, oil may rise in price by $ 7.0 per barrel. In the case of retaliatory actions with damage to Iranian energy facilities, prices may rise by another $13.0. In addition, if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked — the most important route for transporting about 30% of the world's raw materials — the cost is expected to rise to $ 13.0–$28.0 per barrel.Resistance levels: 80.00, 81.00, 82.00, 83.14.Support levels: 79.00, 77.86, 77.00, ...

EUR/TRY: inflation in Turkey remains high, the lira is losing groundThe EUR/TRY pair is trading around 38.23 on the morning of September 25, showing an increase of 0.03% compared to the previous session. This is due to investors' expectations regarding the decisions of the European Central Bank and monetary policy in Turkey. The lira continues to be under pressure due to macroeconomic instability and high inflation in Turkey.The economic situation in Turkey remains difficult: inflation in the country slowed to 51.97% in August, but these are still high values that negatively affect consumer demand and overall economic activity. The Turkish Central Bank maintains a policy of tough rate hikes to combat inflation, which has led to an increase in the cost of borrowing to 30%. However, investors are still concerned about the prospects of a further slowdown in economic growth in the country.On the part of the eurozone, the continued weakening of economic activity is putting pressure on the euro. The business activity indices (PMI) for the eurozone showed values below 50 points (48.9), which indicates a decrease in activity in key sectors of the economy. Inflation also remains above target, which limits the European Central Bank's ability to quickly ease monetary policy.Resistance levels: 38.50, 38.75.Support levels: 37.85, 37.60.GBP/JPY: economic data from the UK and Japan are holding back growthThe GBP/JPY pair is trading at 183.75 on September 25, showing slight losses after a 2% increase in the previous three days. The current consolidation is related to expectations of important economic data from the UK and Japan. The pair declined by 0.12% compared to the last session, which is due to a correction after a recent rise.The economic situation in the UK remains ambiguous. The latest data on the labor market show a decrease in the number of vacancies, but the employment rate remains relatively stable. Inflation in the country is still above the target level of the Bank of England, which forces investors to take into account the likelihood of further tightening of monetary policy. In the latest report on the consumer price index (CPI), inflation reached 6.7%, which supports expectations of further rate increases.In Japan, the market remains under pressure due to the slowdown in the economy. The index of business activity in the service sector (PMI) fell to 50.5 points, indicating stagnation. At the same time, the Bank of Japan maintains extremely low interest rates to stimulate the economy, which makes the yen weaker against the pound. In addition, the market is awaiting a report on the consumer price index in Japan, which may have a further impact on the country's monetary policy.Resistance levels: 184.20, 185.00.Support levels: 182.50, 181.80.AUD/NZD: New Zealand dollar weakens amid slowing domestic demandThe AUD/NZD pair was trading around 1.0890 on the morning of September 25, showing an increase of 0.17% compared to the previous trading session. This growth was supported by the decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to leave interest rates at the current level, which strengthened the Australian dollar. Meanwhile, the weakness of the New Zealand economy and the expected decline in export demand due to domestic economic difficulties are putting pressure on the New Zealand dollar.The Australian economy continues to receive support from Chinese incentives. In particular, China's recent measures to reduce the reserve rate for banks by 0.50% have freed up about $142 billion for lending, which has led to increased demand for Australian goods such as iron ore and coal. This had a positive impact on the AUD rate. Moreover, the RBA hinted that a rate cut is unlikely in the near future, despite the slowdown in economic growth.On the other hand, the New Zealand economy is facing a slowdown in growth. Inflation in the country is expected to remain high despite measures to contain it, which puts pressure on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to take further action on rates. Moreover, the latest data on domestic demand in New Zealand also show a weakening, which contributes to the depreciation of the New Zealand dollar.Resistance levels: 1.0910, 1.0940.Support levels: 1.0850, 1.0820.Crude Oil market analysisAs of September 25, the price of WTI crude oil is trading at $81.46 per barrel, which shows a slight decrease of 0.24% compared to the previous trading session. This decrease is due to market adjustments after a sharp rise in prices in previous weeks amid expectations of supply cuts and uncertainty amid OPEC+ actions.The economic situation in the United States and China continues to have a significant impact on world oil prices. In the United States, the latest publication of data on oil reserves showed an increase, which led to a decrease in expectations about the shortage of supply in the market. Meanwhile, in China, a slowdown in economic growth is holding back demand for oil, despite government incentives. China's recent measures to reduce bank reserves to stimulate lending, including in the industrial sector, may temporarily support demand for commodities.In addition, market participants are closely monitoring the upcoming data on the personal consumer spending index (PCE) in the United States, which may have an impact on market sentiment and the future dynamics of the dollar, which, in turn, may affect oil prices. A stronger dollar usually puts pressure on commodity markets, making oil more expensive for foreign buyers.Resistance levels: $82.50 and $84.00.Support levels: $80.00 and ...

GBP/JPY: Yen strengthens after Bank of Japan rate hikeThe GBP/JPY pair is correcting after a volatile start to the week, trading at 192.214 and updating the lows of the last month.Despite the positive economic data, the quotes did not receive sufficient support. In the UK, inflation remains at a high level, despite the efforts of the Bank of England to reduce it. GDP growth slowed in the second quarter, which puts pressure on the pound. In Japan, by contrast, the recent interest rate hike to 0.25% and plans to reduce the quantitative easing program supported the yen, which also contributed to the pair's decline.Nevertheless, despite the differences in monetary policy, the GBP/JPY pair continues to trade within the framework of a long-term uptrend. The main support levels are at 190.00 and 186.76, while resistance levels are located at 196.71 and 199.46. Analysts' forecasts indicate a possible recovery of the pair to the level of 199.46 by the end of the year, with a possible further increase to 203.04 in 2025. However, if the pair fails to gain a foothold above the current levels, a corrective decline towards the 175.00 mark may begin.Resistance levels: 196.71, 199.46.Support levels: 190.00, 186.76.EUR/TRY: inflation in the eurozone is the driver for the pairThe EUR/TRY pair is correcting after a volatile start to the week, trading at 35.9788 and updating the lows of the last month.In the Eurozone, inflation reached 2.6% in July, which is higher than analysts' expectations and may lead to a tightening of the monetary policy of the European Central Bank. Despite this, German GDP declined in the second quarter, which has a negative impact on the economic prospects of the region. Political stability in the Eurozone remains relatively high, but economic data show mixed results, which creates uncertainty for the euro.The economic situation in Turkey continues to deteriorate amid high inflation and political instability. The central bank is taking steps to stabilize the lira, but investor confidence remains weak. Analysts' forecasts suggest a further weakening of the Turkish lira, which may lead to an increase in the EUR/TRY pair to the level of 44.081 by the end of 2024.Resistance levels: 36.7296, 38.5577.Support levels: 35.5, 34.5.AUD/NZD: mixed economic results support volatilityThe AUD/NZD pair is correcting after a volatile start to the week, trading at 1.09859 and updating the lows of the last month.The economic situation in Australia shows mixed results. Despite expectations of lower interest rates, the latest Australian inflation data turned out to be higher than expected, which may force the Reserve Bank of Australia to reconsider its monetary policy plans and potentially raise rates. On the other hand, in New Zealand, the Reserve Bank maintains a softer monetary policy, which creates favorable conditions for the strengthening of the Australian dollar against the New Zealand dollar.Political and economic news also have an impact on the exchange rate of the currency pair. Discussions are continuing in Australia on measures to stimulate the economy, which may support further AUD growth. In New Zealand, economic indicators such as employment and retail sales remain under pressure, adding to the negative backdrop for the NZD. Analysts predict that the AUD/NZD pair may fluctuate in the range of 1.0950-1.1050 in the short term, with a possible increase to 1.12 in the event of an improvement in economic indicators in Australia.Resistance levels: 1.1050, 1.1100.Support levels: 1.0950, 1.0900.Copper market analysisCopper is correcting after reaching historic highs at the beginning of the year, trading at $9,051.50 per metric ton as of August 1, 2024.In the second quarter of 2024, copper reached record levels amid supply disruptions and high demand, especially from the energy sectors. In May, the price of copper reached $11,464 per metric ton on COMEX and $10,730 on the London Metal Exchange (LME). However, by the end of June, the price had rolled back to $9,418 per metric ton, due to an improved macroeconomic environment in the United States and a decrease in refining volumes in China.Copper supply problems also remain a significant factor supporting high prices. The closure of First Quantum's Cobre Panama mine, which provided about 1% of the world's copper supply, led to a shortage in the market. Additionally, Anglo American reported a reduction in production forecasts for 2024, despite an increase in production in the first quarter.Resistance levels: 10,000, 11,000.Support levels: 8,450, ...

USDCHF: pair is closing the week in different directionsUSDCHF is slightly down in Asian trading session, having shown moderate growth at 0.9265 the day before.The U.S. dollar increased attractiveness among investors amid the release of the final minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve officials, in which the agency strengthened the key indicator by 0.50%, and the target reached 4.5%, signaling a decrease in the rate of monetary parameters correction. Economists are hoping for the continuation of the "hawkish" rhetoric from the regulator in 2023 because inflation is still at 7.1% above the 2.0% target, and the U.S. economy has plenty of headroom to spare. Earlier market participants estimated weak retail sales in November, showing a decline of 0.6%, having earlier strengthened by 1.3% against analysts' expectations of -0.1% for a negative trend. Meanwhile the industrial sector decreased 0.2% against expectations of a 0.1% growth.Resistance levels: 0.9300, 0.9350, 0.9400, 0.9478.Support levels: 0.9250, 0.9200, 0.9150, 0.9100.AUDUSD: cryptosphere in Australia will be under strong control"The Aussie" demonstrates multidirectional dynamics, testing the mark 0.6700. Market participants prefer to fix profits on short contracts against the background of the active decline of AUDUSD earlier due to the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, the level of demand for which is growing again.Macroeconomic statistics, published in Australia, is a negative factor for the Aussie. According to the data, PMI (business activity index) from Commonwealth Bank for December fell to 47.3 points from 48.0 points, manufacturing from S&P Global decreased to 50.4 points from 51.3 points and services sector to 46.9 points from 47.6 points.The Australian government plans to tighten cryptocurrency regulations in 2023 to secure the national financial system amid the bankruptcy of the FTX exchange, after which managers were forced to transfer Australian affiliates under the control of bankruptcy specialists. Moreover, measures to develop saving conditions and legalize investment instruments in the token market are announced, after which investors will be protected from the recurrence of such bankruptcies, besides it is planned to issue a list of tokens, which will be under the mandatory regulation of the financial authorities.Resistance levels: 0.6750, 0.6800, 0.6850 and 0.6900.Support levels: 0.6700, 0.6675, 0.6639, 0.6583.NZDUSD: weak statistics puts pressure on the quote of the "American".Currency pair NZDUSD traded within the stable trend and resumed rising in the morning session, testing the level of 0.6358, reflecting the fluctuations of the previous session.The key support for the instrument this week was provided by the statistics publication of the New Zealand GDP (gross domestic product), which showed the strengthening of the national economic indicators for Q3 by 2.0% with the calculation of 0.9%. The annual rate strengthened from the previous 0.3% to the current 6.4%, surpassing expectations for growth of 5.5%. The positive trend was made possible by a recovery in the services sector, which gained 2.0% in November, with the post office and transportation sectors being key, rising 9.7%. Open borders allowed tourism to show steady strength as well, gaining 7.8%.Resistance levels: 0.6400, 0.6560.Support levels: 0.6300, 0.6150.EURTRY: bears maintain their lead over the LiraThe EURTRY trade instrument is developing a positive momentum in the long term, and this week showed the pair's yearly high at 20.0270. The Euro continues to strengthen on the outcome of the last meeting of the ECB (European Central Bank) officials, in addition the positive economic statistics of the Eurozone strengthened support.Meanwhile Turkey's currency continues to be under the influence of negative factors due to the specific strategy on monetary parameters of the country by the national regulator. Contrary to the global trend that envisages a widespread increase in interest rates, Turkey's regulator has decided to lower them. Investors keep hoping that cyclical corrections will stop on the background of reaching the target of 9.0% for November. At the same time, inflation growth in the Turkish economy over the previous month began to lose momentum to 2.88% from 3.54% over the month and to 84.39% from 85.51% over the year, against what the Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan admitted a further correction to the 40.0% level in the coming months and to 20.0% in 2023. Economists are not in a hurry to agree with this prognosis, believing that the Turkish lira will continue to be under pressure from rising prices in the long term.Resistance levels: 19.9218, 20.3125, 20.7031.Support levels: 19.5312, 19.1406, ...

EUR/GBP: the asset is moving in the sideways trendWithin the Asian trading session, EUR/GBP is moderately declining, testing the level of 0.8670.Earlier the euro tried to move to the stronger position, but investors were focused on the U.S. data examination, which caused European and UK currencies to decline against the U.S. dollar. According to the publication, consumer prices rose 0.1%, while economists forecasted a negative correction within a similar value, however the annual rate declined to 8.3% from 8.5%, while the expectations were for a decline to 8.1%. The consumer price index led analysts to lower their positive assessment of the effectiveness of the leading central bank's monetary strategy, but raised the odds of a 0.75% hike in the U.S. Federal Reserve's key indicator in September.Resistance levels: 0.8692, 0.8720, 0.8750 and 0.8800.Support levels: 0.8645, 0.8616, 0.8585, 0.8560.AUD/USD: The Australian currency has resumed its declineThe AUD/USD traded slightly higher, holding onto a local low from Sept. 8, a low posted earlier when the AUD/USD suffered its biggest drop in months in reaction to U.S. consumer price data.Market participants will want to see the August Australian jobs market report due out on September 15. Preliminary estimates assume a significant strengthening of the number of employed by 35.0 thousand, showing a decrease of 40.9 thousand in the last reporting period. However, experts also allow for a decline in the overall employment rate. Moreover, on Thursday the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) will give a forecast for the consumer price level in September, which correction might be up to 6.7% from 5.9%.Resistance levels: 0.6750, 0.6800, 0.6853 and 0.6900.Support levels: 0.6700, 0.6650, 0.6600, 0.6550.Silver pricesThe price of bank metal is moving in the downward dynamics, leaving the local high of August 17 amid the release of macroeconomic indicators in the United States.Thus, according to the data, the consumer inflation added 0.1% in August, against the expected decline of a similar value. Moreover, without calculating the cost of foodstuffs and energy the value showed an increase to 0.6% from 0.3%, not justifying the preliminary forecast of zero fluctuation. The annual inflation figure showed a correction to 8.3% from 8.5%, which reflected only a partial success of the U.S. Federal Reserve System, greatly questioning the prospects for the "hawks" strategy of the regulator. As of today, over 80% of experts forecast that the U.S. regulator in the meeting announced for September 21 will review the interest rate by 0.75% increasing the target to 3-3.25% per annum.Resistance levels: 19.50, 19.74, 20.00 and 20.48.Support levels: 19.00, 18.68, 18.41, 18.00.EUR/TRY: Quotes approaching all-time highsEUR/TRY is preparing to move above the record resistance level of 18.6000.Turkish lira is getting stronger amid Turkish leader Erdogan's statements that the government will allocate additional $50.0 billion to build new residential real estate and business centers. The initiative of the government provides for the extension of mortgage payments period to 20 years, which will allow monthly payments not to exceed the mark of 125.0 dollars, while the minimum wage is 300.0 dollars. When examining macroeconomic statistics, economists note that Turkish industrial production slipped from 8.8% to 2.4% in July, while the retail sales index shed 0.3%, lowering the yearly rate to 2.0%.Resistance levels: 18.6000, 19.3000.Support levels: 17.9232, ...

Euro/Turkish Lira is an exotic cross-pair on Forex, inferior not only to traditional instruments, but even USD/TRY in its popularity, but not in profitability.An experienced trader who knows the features of this quote (which will be discussed later) and clearly following the right strategy, he is able to receive up to 600% profit per month. This is possible both due to high volatility, sometimes reaching up to 1000 points per day or more, as well as a stable long-term trend.EUR TRY quotes forecast for todayIn the long term, this pair has been in a constant bullish trend for 20 years due to Turkey's socio-economic problems and the constant devaluation of the lira, but it is too hasty to predict that this will necessarily continue further. The fact that about 80% of the volatility is provided by the Turkish lira and only about 20% is accounted for by the euro cannot make this pair stable and well-predictable, especially in connection with the situation in the region where Turkey is located.Thus, so far everything speaks in favor of continuing to weaken TRY, since the political situation in the country after the failed coup attempt in 2016 is still quite unstable. Frequent terrorist attacks and a sluggish civil war with the Kurds do not contribute to the development of the tourism industry does not radically change the situation and is offset by a serious deterioration in relations with the United States and the EU.EURTRY exchange rate (online) on a live chart with indicatorsEUR/TRY Trading forecasts and signalsIf you look at the long-term chart of the euro against the Turkish lira, the upward trend of its dynamics becomes clearly visible. The rise is not smooth and continuous, but is accompanied by periodic impressive corrections, nevertheless, having opened the EUR/TRY chart from the late 90s - early 2000s and until today, only a bullish trend will be visible.General characteristicsThe trading course of an exotic Euro cross-pair against the Turkish Lira shows how many lira you need to pay for one euro today. The single European currency acts as the base, and the Turkish – quoted. The direct absence of the US dollar, indicating that this is a cross, as well as low liquidity, contribute to the emergence of a fair amount of volatility on EUR/TRY, which is perfect for scalpers. However, positional traders will not be disappointed either, since the long-term uptrend for the pair has been going on for 20 years, and there are still no signs of a change in dynamics.On the charts, the quotation of this instrument is displayed either in the standard four-digit (3.8891) or the exact five-digit (3.88921) form.An analysis of activity by day of the week shows that the worst trades are on Monday, but on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, the level of volatility is approximately equally high and reaches its maximum value. Inside the day, most transactions on this currency pair take place during the European session from 8:00 to 12:00 GMT and at the intersection with the American from 13:00 to 18:00 GMT.Read more: EUR/ZAR: exchange rate, signals, forecast for today and chartFactors influencing the EURTRY exchange rate and analyticsThe European Union is a composite state that includes 28 other independent countries united under common economic and political interests. Gathered under a common banner, the European powers have territories of different sizes and different levels of economic development, which, especially recently, causes serious internal problems in the union, and in the future may even threaten its collapse. Nevertheless, the GDP and standard of living in the EU are among the highest in the world. As for culture and historical influence, it's still much more obvious.The EU 's GDP is distributed by sectors as follows:70.5% – services and trade;27.7% - industry;and only about 2.1% of GDP remains for agriculture.However, do not forget that all the data are highly averaged, and the economy in different EU countries is very heterogeneous, so, for example, in Belgium, the services sector may account for up to 77.4% of GDP with the share of agriculture only 0.7%, while for Bulgaria these indicators will be equal to 61.5% for services and 6.2% for agricultural production.Turkey is a fairly large country in the south-east of Europe and south-west Asia with almost eighty million people. Despite the officially secular nature of the state, the Islamic factor has a huge impact on all processes in the country.The mild climate and fairly fertile soils contribute to profitable farming. Industry is also well developed in the country, especially its food, chemical and textile industries. The service sector and trade are also developed quite widely, especially in the resort tourist areas on the seashore.A detailed study of the Turkish economy by sector gives approximately the following picture:58% of the country's GDP is provided by the service sector (trade, tourism, banking, restaurant, hotel services, etc.);Industry contributes about 33% of GDP to the budget;Agriculture remains a decent 9% of GDP.The analysis reveals a significant positive correlation of this pair with such instruments as: Dollar/Lira - 92.6%, Pound/Lira - 90.3%, XNG/USD - 86.9%, EUR/AUD - 84.8%, EUR/SGD - 81.5%, Dollar/Ruble - 79%, Euro/Yen – 78.9%, Euro/Rand - 78.1%, SEK/JPY - 74.9% Franc/Yen – 73.8%.Read more: AUDUSD: analysis, signals, forecast for today and quotesToday, the negative correlation of EUR/TRY is most evident with: gold to euro - -89.5%, Australian to Franc - -84.3%, silver to euro - -80.8%, gold to dollar - -78.5%, silver to dollar - -77.1%, stock indices HK50, US500 and US30 (-76%, -72.6% and -71.4 respectively), as well as with AUD/USD – -70.4%.The Turkish lira has the greatest impact on exchange rate fluctuations, so the main factors will be those that have the greatest impact on Turkey, nevertheless, you should not forget about the events related to the Eurozone either.So, mainly the quotation is influenced by:The state of the tourism industry, as well as the socio-political situation in Turkey;The state of the economies of Turkey, the EU and neighboring countries, as well as the countries from which the largest flow of tourists comes;Central Bank interest rates (for both countries);Business activity level (for both countries);Prices for agricultural products.Features of the EURTRY currency pairDue to the impressive difference in refinancing rates (0% for the Eurozone and 8% for Turkey), at the moment this tool allows you to conduct good carry trading when opening short positions on medium-term timeframes. The approximate size of swaps, under current conditions, is -38.83 points on long positions and +33.68 on short positions. Forecasts in this area are not predicting rapid and drastic changes yet.Read more: GBP/USD exchange rate (Online Chart), forecast for todayEUR TRY is a very profitable pair, but only for professionals with sufficient experience and deposit size, since in the short term (H4 or less) this financial instrument can behave very unpredictably and make strong and sharp movements of hundreds of points for no apparent reason. As with other highly volatile pairs, it is recommended to set stops with twice or three times the value than on standard Euro/Dollar ...