EUR/USD: the corrective strengthening of the euro has been suspended
The EUR/USD currency pair is showing a slight drop, rolling back from the peak values reached on February 13 and updated recently. Trading is taking place near the 1.0765 level, while the market is waiting for new incentives to move. The activity of traders at the beginning of the week is low, which is facilitated by the lack of significant economic news from Europe and the American stock exchanges closed on Monday in honor of Presidents' Day.
The next day, the focus will be on the session of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the speech of the head of the German Federal Bank Joachim Nagel. The ECB's previously published monthly report pointed to a recession in the German economy caused by weak external demand and limited consumer spending, as well as high ECB interest rates that make domestic investment difficult. It is expected that production volume may decrease in the first quarter. On Wednesday, data on the level of consumer confidence in the eurozone for February will be announced, and an improvement in the indicator is predicted. Also, the market's attention will be focused on the minutes of the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve, where the rate remained unchanged. On Thursday, traders will focus on data on business activity indices in the eurozone for February and updated inflation statistics for January.
- Resistance levels: 1.0800, 1.0820, 1.0850, 1.0900.
- Support levels: 1.0765, 1.0730, 1.0700, 1.0660.
GBP/USD: the currency pair is stagnating in anticipation of incentives for activity
The GBP/USD currency pair is in a state of practical balance, hovering around the 1.2585 level. Market players are weighing the chances of new incentives to activate trading, while market volatility at the beginning of this week shows moderate indicators. In the USA, trading platforms did not work on the previous day due to Presidents' Day, while in the UK, investors' attention was focused on updating data on housing prices from Rightmove Group Ltd.: in February, the growth rate slowed to 0.9% from 1.3%, and over the year the index increased by 0.1%, showing an improvement after the previous decrease of 0.7%.
Support for the British pound continues to come from retail sales data released at the end of last week. In January, sales increased by 3.4%, exceeding the 3.3% drop a month earlier and analysts' expectations of 1.5%. Year-on-year growth was 0.7%, which is significantly better than the projected decrease of 1.4%. Sales excluding fuel also showed an increase of 3.2% month-on-month and 0.7% year-on-year, significantly exceeding experts' expectations.
- Resistance levels: 1.2600, 1.2650, 1.2700, 1.2746.
- Support levels: 1.2550, 1.2500, 1.2450, 1.2400.
AUD/USD: the RBA is considering a future rate hike
During the Asian trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair is experiencing a pullback from the peak values reached on February 2 and re-recorded the previous day, against the background of the strengthening of the US dollar, stabilizing at 0.6536.
Attention to the Australian dollar on Tuesday was attracted by the published results of the last meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), held on February 5-6, where it was emphasized that the main reason for maintaining the interest rate at 4.35% is the high level of inflation. The document notes that with further acceleration of inflation, the regulator may consider raising rates by 25 basis points. Inflation is expected to return to the target range of 2.0–3.0% by 2025, according to RBA forecasts.
- Resistance levels: 0.6560, 0.6620.
- Support levels: 0.6500, 0.6440.
Crude Oil market analysis
During the Asian trading session, the price of Brent Crude Oil has been rising, reaching the resistance level of $ 82.80 per barrel.
The increase in prices is due to concerns about the supply of fuel due to tensions in the Red Sea area. Attacks by the Ansar Allah group on merchant ships aimed at exerting pressure on Israel's military actions are causing instability in supplies. However, the prospect of reduced demand for oil and petroleum products limits this growth. According to the latest data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), global hydrocarbon consumption is expected to fall due to the economic recession in the UK and Japan, with daily consumption forecast at 1.22 million barrels, down from previous estimates of 1.24 million barrels.
- Resistance levels: 83.14, 83.89, 84.64, 85.52.
- Support levels: 82.00, 81.00, 80.00, 79.12.