Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, gold and crude oil on Wednesday, November 8

EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, gold and crude oil on Wednesday, November 8

EUR/USD: the development of an upward price corridor in the range of 1.0730–1.0750 with dynamic boundaries

The EUR/USD currency pair continues to fluctuate in a negative way, retreating from the peak values recorded on September 13 and updated at the beginning of this week, now the rate is at 1.0689.

The constraining factor for the euro is the deterioration of economic indicators, especially in Germany, where the September industrial production index decreased by 1.4% compared with a minimum drop of 0.1% in the previous period, and in annual terms the decrease reached -3.86%, which is noticeably worse than the previous indicator of -1.54%. The producer price index in the eurozone also slowed to 0.5% month-on-month after the previous 0.7%, and decreased by 12.4% year-on-year, which is more significant than the previous 11.5% decline. At the same time, the October data showed a weakening of inflation, with the consumer price index falling from 0.3% to 0.0% for the month and from 4.5% to 3.8% year-on-year. The harmonized consumer price index also decreased from 0.2% to -0.2% on a monthly basis and from 4.3% to 3.0% on an annual basis, which indicates the positive impact of measures taken by the European Central Bank to reduce monetary stimulus.

  • Resistance levels: 1.0730, 1.0850.
  • Support levels: 1.0638, 1.0465.

GBP/USD: the British currency is moving away from the peak of September before the speech of the heads of the Fed and the Bank of England

The GBP/USD currency pair shows a moderate decline, continuing the downward trend that emerged at the beginning of this week after moving away from the peak values recorded on September 15. The current trading focuses on the level of 1.2280, which is being tested for the possibility of a break down, while the early morning is characterized by low trading activity in anticipation of upcoming statements by the chairman of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell and the Governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey.

On the eve of these events, the market estimated the October results of the Halifax housing cost index, which showed a monthly increase of 1.1% against the projected 0.2%, while the annual indicator decreased by 3.2%. The company's experts expressed the opinion that the semi-annual trend of housing cost reduction has been interrupted, but the current decrease in cost was more a consequence of a shortage of offers than a sign of market stabilization. It is expected that statistics on changes in GDP and industrial production for September will be presented in the UK on Friday, with a projected decline in national economic activity by 0.1% after an increase of 0.2% a month earlier. In the third quarter, the indicator may fall by 0.1%, while in annual terms, a slowdown from 0.6% to 0.5% is forecast. The manufacturing sector is expected to show an increase of 0.1% after the previous significant fall of 0.7%.

  • Resistance levels: 1.2300, 1.2350, 1.2400, 1.2450.
  • Support levels: 1.2261, 1.2230, 1.2200, 1.2150.

Gold price analysis

Gold remains stable, hovering around the 1965.00 mark and approaching the minimum values on October 24. In the previous week, the metal could not stay above the key level of 2000.00, which led to the massive closure of long positions in the market.

At the moment, investors' attention is focused on the upcoming speeches of the heads of the leading central banks — Andrew Bailey from the Bank of England and Jerome Powell from the US Federal Reserve. It is expected that they can provide additional information on future steps to adjust interest rates, which, according to some experts, have already reached their peak. At the last November sessions, both financial structures left the main parameters of their policy unchanged, but did not rule out tightening in the event of a return of inflationary growth. In addition, investors are expecting a speech by the President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, in the near future.

  • Resistance levels: 1972.85, 1987.29, 2000.00, 2015.30.
  • Support levels: 1963.55, 1952.66, 1940.00, 1930.00.

Crude Oil market analytics

In the Asian trading session, WTI crude oil shows a downward bias, being at $76.80 per barrel and reaching the lowest levels since July 24.

Price indicators continue to experience downward pressure despite Russia's decision to extend the voluntary supply restriction by 300 thousand barrels per day until the end of this year, which is in addition to the already existing production reduction by 500 thousand barrels. At the same time, Saudi Arabia has expressed its intention to maintain restrictions at the level of 1 million barrels per day, and in December it is planned to conduct analytical monitoring to determine the future actions of producing countries. According to preliminary estimates, such measures may contribute to an additional reduction in supply in the market, which OPEC + is trying to balance against the background of declining demand. Weak indicators of the eurozone economy contribute to a reduction in industrial consumption, while China does not show a sufficiently strong pace of recovery in economic activity, although there is an increase in imports of raw materials by 7% in October after falling by 13% in the previous period.

  • Resistance levels: 78.00, 79.14, 80.00, 81.00.
  • Support levels: 77.00, 76.00, 75.00, 74.00.
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Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD and cryptocurrencies on December 4th
EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Ethereum/USD, cryptocurrency, Bitcoin/USD, cryptocurrency, Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD and cryptocurrencies on December 4th EUR/USD: a study of dynamics by diagonal indicatorsDespite the favorable macroeconomic indicators of the European Union, the EUR/USD pair continues to lose ground, now being around the 1.0870 mark.Italy's economic growth in the third quarter was 0.1%, which is better than the previous decline of 0.4%, and the economy grew by 0.1% year-on-year, exceeding analysts' forecasts of 0.0%. Germany showed a decrease in exports by 0.2%, which is an improvement from the previous indicator of -2.4%, while imports decreased by -1.2%, compared with -1.7%. This led to an increase in the trade balance to 17.8 billion euros, compared with 16.5 billion euros earlier.The US dollar is strengthening, reaching 103.100, after statements by Jerome Powell, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, about maintaining the current interest rate at 5.25–5.50% at the next meeting and the absence of plans to ease monetary policy until a stable decrease in core inflation.Resistance levels: 1.0925, 1.1007.Support levels: 1.0809, 1.0789.GBP/USD: the British pound stabilizes near the peak values of AugustThe GBP/USD trading instrument is rolling back from its recently updated highs on August 31, testing the 1.2670 level for stability, against the background of analysis of the latest economic data from the United States and Great Britain.The index of business activity in the British manufacturing sector from S&P Global rose from 46.7 to 47.2 points in November, surpassing forecasts of 46.6. At the same time, data from Nationwide Building Society in the UK were also higher than expected: the index rose by 0.2% instead of the expected drop of -0.4% on a monthly basis and by -2.0%, compared with the expected -2.3%. This strengthening of the index for three months indicates a possible overcoming of the downturn in the housing market. In the United States, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from S&P Global remained at 49.4 points, in line with forecasts, and a similar indicator from ISM turned out to be at 46.7 points, despite expectations of growth to 47.6 points. However, it is worth noting that the ISM manufacturing inflation index rose from 45.1 to 49.9 points in November, exceeding forecasts of 46.2 points.Resistance levels: 1.2700, 1.2747, 1.2800, 1.2850.Support levels: 1.2650, 1.2600, 1.2550, 1.2500.NZD/USD: The increase in the value of the New Zealand currency slows down ahead of new market incentivesNZD/USD shows a changeable trend, stabilizing around the 0.6200 mark. The currency pair updated its July peaks at the beginning of trading, but further strengthening of the New Zealand dollar is limited in anticipation of new market catalysts, while the US dollar is under pressure in light of expectations of the beginning of a cycle of interest rate cuts in the United States.Last Friday, US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stressed his readiness to continue tightening monetary policy, despite the gradual smoothing of inflation risks and a slowdown in economic growth. There is a possibility of lowering rates in the second quarter of 2024 against the background of an improving macroeconomic environment. Adrian Orr, head of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, expressed the view that it is necessary to maintain the interest rate at 5.50% in order to achieve inflation goals, with the possibility of adjusting it as necessary. The Reserve Bank assumes that the slowdown in the global and Chinese economies will put pressure on commodity prices, which, in turn, will affect the country's export revenues.Resistance levels: 0.6221, 0.6250, 0.6300, 0.6350.Support levels: 0.6183, 0.6155, 0.6131, 0.6100.Cryptocurrency Market AnalyticsDuring the previous week, the BTC/USD pair experienced volatile trends. Initially, against the background of increasing regulatory pressure on the Binance and Kraken cryptocurrency platforms, the exchange rate suffered a drop. However, bitcoin later regained its position and for the first time this year gained a foothold above the 41000.00 level. Experts attribute the growth to two key aspects: anticipation of the approval and launch of the bitcoin ETF, as well as expectations of a change in the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.Last Thursday, SEC representatives officially announced discussions with the management of Grayscale Investments, a digital asset management company, regarding the possibility of transforming Grayscale Bitcoin Trust into a bitcoin-based ETF. Similar negotiations previously took place with representatives of BlackRock and Nasdaq. This news has strengthened investors' confidence in the imminent launch of the first bitcoin ETF, which is expected to lead to an influx of institutional investments in the field of cryptocurrencies and strengthen the value of digital assets.Resistance levels: 40625.00, 43750.00, 46875.00.Support levels: 37500.00, 34375.00, 31250.00.
Dec 04, 2023 Read
Analytical Forex Forecast for EUR/GBP, USD/CAD, AUD/USD and Platinum for Friday, December 1
AUD/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, EUR/GBP, currency, Platinum, mineral, Analytical Forex Forecast for EUR/GBP, USD/CAD, AUD/USD and Platinum for Friday, December 1 EUR/GBP: "bulls" managed to seize the initiative in the pairThe EUR/GBP currency pair is showing weak gains, correcting around 0.8632 after a significant bearish move that resulted in the lowest levels since September 18.Investors' focus is now on the expected economic data from the UK. S&P Global's manufacturing business activity index is expected to be released today. Forecasts predict a slight decline in the index from 46.7 to 46.6 points. This report is closely analyzed by traders, as purchasing managers often have priority access to information about the activities of their companies, which can serve as an indicator of the overall health of the country's economy. Also released today was the Nationwide Building Society's house price trend data showing changes in average UK house prices, with the monthly figure falling from 0.9% to 0.2% and the annual figure improving from -3.3% to -2.0%, a key indicator for the UK property market.Resistance levels: 0.8634, 0.8656, 0.8669, 0.8686.Support levels: 0.8611, 0.8583, 0.8555, 0.8521.USD/CAD: 92% of participants of the Bank of Canada survey against CBDCDuring the Asian trading session, the USD/CAD currency pair shows a significant decline, testing the level of 1.3535 and updating the lowest values since September 29.The latest Canadian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for September indicated an increase of 0.1%, which exceeded the previous month's zero result and related forecasts. However, on a quarterly basis, GDP fell 0.3% following the previous increase and declined -1.1% on an annualized basis, down from the previous reading of 1.4%. Meanwhile, a Bank of Canada survey found that the majority of Canadians (92%, about 90,000 people) are not ready to replace fiat money and bank cards with a digital version of the national currency. Experts note that the majority of respondents are aware of the technology and basic principles of CBDC, but express concerns about the use of personal data and transaction history, as well as distrust in the regulator on the security of such technologies.Resistance levels: 1.3550, 1.3600, 1.3650, 1.3700.Support levels: 1.3500, 1.3450, 1.3400, 1.3350.AUD/USD: currency pair is stabilizing around the level of 0.6600AUD/USD currency pair is experiencing mixed fluctuations, stabilizing around 0.6600. By the end of the week, the pair shows modest growth, having lost its early bullish momentum after the release of GDP and Personal Consumption Expenditures data in the US. As a reminder, the US economy grew by 5.2% in the third quarter, beating forecasts of 5.0% and the previous figure of 4.9%. The core personal consumption price index, used by the Fed to monitor inflation, fell in October to 3.5% annualized and 0.2% monthly from 3.7% and 0.3%, respectively.The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) released an updated global economic outlook, suggesting that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has ended its cycle of interest rate increases. OECD experts believe the rate will remain high until inflation reaches the 2.0% target, anticipating a 75 basis point decline from the third quarter of 2024 to the end of 2025. These forecasts are in line with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which expects the world's major economies to avoid recession, even as borrowing costs accelerate to control inflation.Resistance levels: 0.6630, 0.6675, 0.6700, 0.6750.Support levels: 0.6588, 0.6550, 0.6500, 0.6450.Platinum priceQuotes of the precious metal are following the global corrective trend and reached the level of 940.00 again this week.There is a notable deficit in the platinum market due to high mining costs and production instability in South Africa. At the end of the previous month, the World Platinum Council released its third quarter report indicating a projected annual deficit of over 1.0 million ounces and a 3.0% decline in total volume over the past 10 months. During the same period, platinum demand increased 26.0% year-on-year. Experts note that supplies from South Africa, where more than 70.0% of platinum comes from, remain volatile and frequent power cuts in the region continue to cause production problems.Resistance levels: 942.00, 986.00.Support levels: 910.00, 859.00.
Dec 01, 2023 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY and NZD/USD for Thursday, November 30
AUD/USD, currency, EUR/USD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY and NZD/USD for Thursday, November 30 EUR/USD: data show a decrease in the inflation rate in the European UnionThe euro is showing ambiguous behavior in the market, hovering around the level of 1.0970 and striving to recover from the recent corrective decline, thanks to which the EUR/USD pair reached August highs.Yesterday, market participants analyzed the latest data on inflation in the key economies of the eurozone. In Spain, the November consumer price index fell by 0.4%, which led to a decrease in the annual rate from 3.5% to 3.2%. In Germany, annual inflation slowed from 3.8% to 3.2%, while forecasts assumed 3.5%, and the monthly indicator decreased from 0.0% to -0.4%. The harmonized consumer price index in Germany was 2.3%, approaching the ECB's target of 2.0%. Similar reports from France and Italy are expected today, as well as the overall consumer price index in the EU, which, according to forecasts, may fall to 2.7% from 2.9%. On Thursday, investors' attention will be focused on the speeches of representatives of the ECB and the Bundesbank, Christine Lagarde and Joachim Nagel. It is expected that their comments, against the background of confirmation of the continued decline in inflation, will tend to "dovish" rhetoric and strengthen the market's beliefs that the central bank is also close to the end of the cycle of raising interest rates.Support levels: 1.0938, 1.0830.Resistance levels: 1.0990, 1.1095.AUD/USD: the Australian real estate sector shows a noticeable recoveryIn the morning trading, the AUD/USD currency pair is trading steadily around the level of 0.6642, while the Australian dollar is actively resuming its positions thanks to favorable macroeconomic statistics and the correction of the US dollar.In October, an increase in the number of building permits in Australia was recorded by 7.5%, recovering from a decrease of 4.0% in the previous month and returning this indicator to a positive area for the first time in a year (now the indicator is 1.8%). For private homes, this figure increased by 2.2%, against the background of a decrease of -4.6% in September. There was also an increase in investment in the construction sector by 0.7% in the third quarter, despite a more significant increase of 4.4% earlier. These data indicate a stable interest in private real estate and the recovery of the purchasing power of the population, which is an indicator of the improvement of the national economy.Support levels: 0.6600, 0.6500.Resistance levels: 0.6677, 0.6800.USD/JPY: "bears" are preparing to push the pair below the level of 147.00The US dollar is showing an unstable decline in a pair with the Japanese yen, testing the possibility of a breakout of the 147.00 level during the Asian session. The pair has been reaching new lows since September 12, but the bears' progress is limited.On the other hand, Japanese economic data was diverse. The industrial production report showed a 1.0% month-on-month drop, contrary to the previous 0.5% increase and an expected increase to 0.8%. The annual rate reached 0.9% after the previous drop of 4.4%. Retail sales decreased from 6.2% to 4.2% year-on-year, which was significantly lower than the expected 5.9%, and the monthly figure fell by 1.6% after -0.1% in September. At the same time, the consumer confidence index in Japan improved from 35.7 to 36.1 points in November, ahead of forecasts of 35.6 points.Resistance levels: 147.36, 148.00, 148.47, 149.00.Support levels: 146.65, 146.00, 145.00, 144.00.NZD/USD: the interest rate remains at 5.50% according to the decision of the RBNZDuring the Asian trading session, the New Zealand dollar is strengthening significantly, testing the possibility of a breakout of the 0.6180 mark up. This movement brings the currency closer to the maximum values reached on August 1, which were updated after the last meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) on monetary policy issues.The RBNZ, in line with expectations, left the key parameters of monetary policy unchanged. The official statement indicated that the bank was ready to re-tighten monetary conditions if necessary, which slightly changed the mood of investors who expected the interest rate to begin to decrease from the current fifteen-year high of 5.50% in the first half of 2024. The authorities also expressed concerns that the slowdown in the global and Chinese economies could negatively affect commodity prices and New Zealand's export earnings. It is expected that the RBNZ may switch to softer rhetoric if these concerns are confirmed.Resistance levels: 0.6183, 0.6206, 0.6250, 0.6300.Support levels: 0.6155, 0.6131, 0.6100, 0.6075.
Nov 30, 2023 Read
Analytical Forex Forecast for EUR/USD, USD/CAD, Gold and Crude Oil on November 29
EUR/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Analytical Forex Forecast for EUR/USD, USD/CAD, Gold and Crude Oil on November 29 EUR/USD: euro grows before eurozone inflation dataThe EUR/USD currency pair continues to show moderate growth, continuing the bullish trend started last week. The currency seeks to strengthen above the level of 1.1000, ahead of the expected economic reports from the European Union and the United States.Today, investors are focused on the November statistics on consumer confidence in the Eurozone, where the indicator is expected to remain stable at -16.9. A slight improvement in economic sentiment is expected, with a correction from 93.3 to 93.7 points. Also due for release is German inflation data for November, where the annualized consumer price level is forecast to decline from 3.8% to 3.5%, with a 0.2% decline expected on a monthly basis. The harmonized consumer price index is forecast to be -0.3% on a monthly basis and 2.7% on an annual basis. The Gfk Group survey showed a slight improvement in sentiment among German consumers to -27.8 points, better than forecasts. In addition, the pace of private sector lending in the eurozone fell from 0.8% to 0.6% in October, while business lending fell 0.3%, the first decline since 2015.Resistance levels: 1.1000, 1.1050, 1.1100, 1.1150.Support levels: 1.0964, 1.0930, 1.0900, 1.0850.USD/CAD: US dollar continues to be under pressureThe USD/CAD currency pair has been showing a downward trend since the beginning of November and is currently approaching the level of 1.3549.The US dollar is under pressure due to investors' beliefs that the Federal Reserve will soon start discussing the prospects of interest rate cuts. Christopher Waller, a member of the Federal Open Market Committee, suggested the possibility of a rate cut if inflation continues to decline over the next 3-5 months. On Thursday, data is expected to be released on the core private consumption price index for October, which is expected to fall from 3.7% to 3.5% year-over-year. The realization of these forecasts may strengthen the position of supporters of a looser monetary policy in the Federal Reserve, which may have a negative impact on the US dollar.Resistance levels: 1.3705, 1.3793, 1.3916.Support levels: 1.3549, 1.3450, 1.3305.Gold price analysisThe currency pair XAU/USD is witnessing a slight rise, continuing the uptrend in the short term and updating the last highs recorded in early May. The currency is actively testing the possibility of overcoming the level of 2050.00, with the US dollar feeling moderate pressure due to expectations of the end of the tight monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. Recently, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) member Christopher Waller emphasized that a loosening of policy in the coming months is being considered, provided inflation slows. However, other members of the regulator have pointed to potential price increases, especially in energy.Today, investors are focused on revised U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) data for the third quarter and the Federal Reserve's economic report, known as the Beige Book. Tomorrow will see the release of October data on personal consumption price indexes, important for the Fed's inflation forecasting. The annualized core rate is expected to fall from 3.7% to 3.5% and the monthly rate from 0.3% to 0.2%. Also to be released are the statistics on personal income and household spending, where income growth is expected to slow from 0.3% to 0.2% and spending from 0.7% to 0.2%.Resistance levels: 2050.00, 2065.00, 2085.00, 2100.00.Support levels: 2030.00, 2015.30, 2000.00, 1987.29.Crude Oil Market AnalysisWTI Crude Oil prices are in a horizontal trend, hovering around 76.55. Hydrocarbon prices have shown resilience this month after setting the date for the next OPEC+ summit to be held on November 30 via video conference. The postponement of the meeting was due to discrepancies in the alliance regarding oil production quotas. Experts' forecasts lean toward maintaining current production levels, especially from Saudi Arabia and Russia, which have agreed to cut production by an additional 1.3 million barrels per day.Oil price movements are largely dependent on US hydrocarbon inventory reports. The positive movement was interrupted this week, with the American Petroleum Institute (API) reporting a -0.817 million barrel decline in inventories after a significant increase of 9.074 million a week earlier, implying a likely decline in the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) report to be released today. Analysts anticipate a -0.933 million barrel decline after an increase of 8.701 million a week earlier, which could support oil prices.Resistance levels: 77.70, 81.20.Support levels: 75.50, 72.30.
Nov 29, 2023 Read
Analytische Forex-Prognose für NZD/USD, Gold, Kryptowährungen und Rohöl für Montag, 27. November
NZD/USD, currency, Ethereum/USD, cryptocurrency, Bitcoin/USD, cryptocurrency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Analytische Forex-Prognose für NZD/USD, Gold, Kryptowährungen und Rohöl für Montag, 27. November NZD/USD: Neuseeländischer Dollar nahe SpitzenwertenDas Währungspaar NZD/USD erfährt eine Korrektur nach dem Anstieg der letzten Woche, als es seit dem 10. August frische Höchststände erreichte. Im Moment testet der Kurs das Niveau von 0.6060 auf die Möglichkeit eines Rückgangs, in Erwartung neuer Anreize auf dem Markt.Der heutige Tag wird die Aufmerksamkeit der Anleger auf die US-Verkaufszahlen für neue Häuser für Oktober und den November-Geschäftsaktivitätsindex der Federal Reserve Bank von Dallas lenken. Händler werden wahrscheinlich vorsichtig sein, neue Positionen bis Mittwoch, den 29. November, zu akzeptieren, wenn das Treffen der Reserve Bank of New Zealand stattfindet. Es wird erwartet, dass die Bank die Geldpolitik nicht strafft und den Zinssatz bei 5,50% belassen wird.Der neuseeländische Dollar wird von den am vergangenen Freitag veröffentlichten Einzelhandelsumsätzen für das dritte Quartal leicht unterstützt. Diese Daten zeigten Stabilität, nachdem sie im Vorquartal um 0,9% gefallen waren, im Gegensatz zu den Prognosen für einen Rückgang um 0,8%. Der Absatz ohne Berücksichtigung von Autos stieg um 1,0% und übertraf damit die Erwartungen von -1,5%.Widerstandsniveaus: 0.6100, 0.6131, 0.6155, 0.6183.Unterstützungsniveaus: 0.6075, 0.6053, 0.6030, 0.6000.Analyse der GoldpreiseIn der asiatischen Handelssitzung zeigt das Währungspaar XAU/USD nach oben und versucht, über der wichtigen Marke von 2000.0 Fuß zu fassen. Dies geschieht vor dem Hintergrund einer vorübergehenden Waffenruhe im Nahostkonflikt, die die geopolitischen Risiken verringert, sowie aufgrund des anhaltenden Fallens des USD-Index.Experten diskutieren oft die Möglichkeit einer globalen Rezession in der US-Wirtschaft und die Zeit des Abschlusses einer aggressiven Finanzpolitik. Analysten der Goldman Sachs Group Inc. sie schätzen die Wahrscheinlichkeit einer Rezession auf 15% und gehen davon aus, dass die Korrektur der Kreditkosten im letzten Quartal des nächsten Jahres beginnen wird. Die UBS Group AG und Morgan Stanley prognostizieren im zweiten Quartal des kommenden Jahres die gleiche Entwicklung mit einer erwarteten Lockerung der Geldpolitik im März, wobei die Experten der UBS Group AG für 2024 eine Zinskorrektur von mehr als 275 Basispunkten erwarten. Unter solchen Bedingungen kann Gold Wachstum zeigen, da der Rückgang des USD-Index aufgrund der weichen Politik zu seinem Wachstum beiträgt, da die umgekehrte Korrelation zwischen Gold und Index gegeben ist, die auf ein normales Niveau nahe -0,80 zurückkehrt.Widerstandsniveaus: 2024.0, 2053.0.Support-Levels: 2000.0, 1965.0.Analyse des KryptowährungsmarktesDie letzte Woche für das Währungspaar BTC/USD war gemischt: Zunächst gab es einen Rückgang auf das Niveau von 35640.00, gefolgt von der Wiederherstellung verlorener Positionen mit Überwindung des Niveaus von 38400.00, aber zum gegenwärtigen Zeitpunkt fiel der Kurs wieder auf 37200.00.Dieser negative Trend ist mit einer verstärkten Kontrolle durch die amerikanischen Aufsichtsbehörden über die führenden Kryptowährungsplattformen verbunden. Zum Beispiel erkannte Changpeng Zhao, Leiter von Binance, die Unfähigkeit des Unternehmens, die Anforderungen des Anti-Geldwäsche-Programms einzuhalten, und trat zurück, wobei das Unternehmen mit einer Geldstrafe von 4,32 Milliarden Dollar bestraft wurde und zusätzliche rechtliche Einschränkungen auferlegte. Darüber hinaus hat die US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) die Kraken-Kryptobörse des illegalen Wertpapierhandels, der fehlenden Maklerlizenz und der Vermischung von Kundengeldern mit Unternehmensvermögen beschuldigt. Die Beamten bemühen sich, die Aktivitäten von Kraken vollständig zu verbieten und finanzielle Sanktionen zu verhängen. Auch Vertreter der Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) erklärten ihre Absicht, digitale Plattformen weiterhin zu verfolgen, wenn sie die Interessen ihrer Kunden nicht schützen.Widerstandsniveaus: 38000.00, 39062.50, 40625.00.Support-Levels: 35937.50, 35300.00, 32812.50, 31200.00.Analyse des RohölmarktesWährend der asiatischen Handelssitzung gab es einen moderaten Rückgang des Wertes von WTI-Öl, der auf das Niveau von 75.00 fällt, was den bärischen Trend der letzten Woche fortsetzt.Der Preisverfall kommt vor dem Hintergrund der abnehmenden geopolitischen Spannungen in der Region Nahost, wo im Rahmen des Abkommens über den Austausch von Geiseln eine Waffenruhe in Gaza eingeführt wurde. Einige Experten glauben, dass diese temporäre Welt zu einer diplomatischen Konfliktlösung werden könnte. Darüber hinaus erwarten die Anleger die Ergebnisse des für den 30. November geplanten bevorstehenden OPEC+ -Gipfels, bei dem die Exporteure über die Möglichkeit einer weiteren Reduzierung der Ölproduktion verhandeln. Analysten sind zuversichtlich, einen Kompromiss zu erzielen, der zu einer Verringerung des Ölangebots auf dem Markt führen wird.Widerstandsniveaus: 76.00, 77.00, 78.00, 79.14.Unterstützungsstufen: 75.00, 74.00, 73.00, 71.77.
Nov 27, 2023 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for NZD/USD, Gold, Cryptocurrencies and Crude Oil on November 27
NZD/USD, currency, Ethereum/USD, cryptocurrency, Bitcoin/USD, cryptocurrency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for NZD/USD, Gold, Cryptocurrencies and Crude Oil on November 27 NZD/USD: New Zealand Dollar is close to peak valuesThe NZD/USD currency pair is experiencing a correction after the growth achieved last week, when it reached fresh highs since August 10. At the moment, the exchange rate is checking the 0.6060 level for the possibility of a decline, in anticipation of new incentives in the market.Today will attract investors' attention to the data on new home sales in the United States for October and the November business activity index from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Traders are likely to be cautious about taking new positions until Wednesday, November 29, when the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets. It is expected that the bank will not tighten monetary policy and will leave the interest rate at 5.50%.The New Zealand dollar is slightly supported by retail sales data for the third quarter, published last Friday. These data showed stability after a 0.9% drop in the previous quarter, contrary to forecasts of a 0.8% decline. Sales excluding cars increased by 1.0%, exceeding expectations of -1.5%.Resistance levels: 0.6100, 0.6131, 0.6155, 0.6183.Support levels: 0.6075, 0.6053, 0.6030, 0.6000.Gold price analysisIn the Asian trading session, the XAU/USD currency pair is showing growth, trying to gain a foothold above the important 2000.0 mark. This is happening against the background of a temporary ceasefire in the Middle East conflict, which reduces geopolitical risks, as well as due to the continued decline of the USD index.Experts often discuss the possibility of a global recession in the US economy and the period of completion of aggressive financial policy. Analysts from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimate the probability of a recession at 15% and assume that the correction in the cost of loans will begin in the last quarter of next year. UBS Group AG and Morgan Stanley predict the same development in the second quarter of next year with the expected easing of monetary policy in March, and UBS Group AG experts foresee an interest rate correction of more than 275 basis points for 2024. In such conditions, gold can demonstrate growth, since a decrease in the USD index due to a soft policy contributes to its growth, given the inverse correlation between gold and the index, which returns to the usual level of about -0.80.Resistance levels: 2024.0, 2053.0.Support levels: 2000.0, 1965.0.Cryptocurrency Market AnalysisLast week was ambiguous for the BTC/USD currency pair: at first there was a decline to the level of 35640.00, followed by the recovery of lost positions with overcoming the level of 38400.00, but by the current moment the exchange rate has again fallen to the level of 37200.00.Such a negative trend is associated with increased control by American supervisory authorities over the leading cryptocurrency platforms. For example, Changpeng Zhao, the head of Binance, acknowledged the company's inability to comply with the requirements of the anti-money laundering program and resigned, while the company was fined $ 4.32 billion and additional legal restrictions were imposed. In addition, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) accused the Kraken crypto exchange of illegal securities trading, lack of a broker's license and mixing client funds with corporate assets. The officials seek to completely ban the activities of Kraken and impose financial sanctions. Also, representatives of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced their intention to continue pursuing digital platforms if they do not protect the interests of their customers.Resistance levels: 38000.00, 39062.50, 40625.00.Support levels: 35937.50, 35300.00, 32812.50, 31200.00.Crude Oil Market AnalysisDuring the Asian trading session, there is a moderate decline in the price of WTI oil, which falls to the level of 75.00, continuing the "bearish" trend that developed last week.The drop in prices is taking place against the background of a decrease in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East region, where a ceasefire has been introduced in Gaza in the context of the hostage exchange agreement. Some experts believe that this temporary peace can turn into a diplomatic settlement of the conflict. In addition, investors are waiting for the results of the upcoming OPEC+ summit scheduled for November 30, where exporters are negotiating the possibility of an additional reduction in oil production. Analysts are confident that a compromise will be reached, which will lead to a decrease in the volume of oil supply on the market.Resistance levels: 76.00, 77.00, 78.00, 79.14.Support levels: 75.00, 74.00, 73.00, 71.77.
Nov 27, 2023 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CHF and USD/CAD for Friday, November 24
AUD/USD, currency, EUR/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CHF and USD/CAD for Friday, November 24 EUR/USD: ECB notices the beginning of stress in the banking sectorThe EUR/USD currency pair shows a volatile trend, stabilizing around the 1.0900 level. On Friday, market activity remains moderate, and the pair is heading to the end of the week without significant changes, given the closure of American trading platforms due to Thanksgiving. The November statistics on business activity are expected to be published today. Forecasts indicate a decrease in the S&P Global index in the manufacturing sector from 50.0 to 49.8 and in the services sector from 50.6 to 50.4, which may temporarily affect the dollar.German data showed a decrease in GDP in the third quarter from 0.0% to -0.1%, while the annual indicator deteriorated significantly from -0.2% to -0.8%, although -0.3% was expected. The main factors are weak external demand and rising energy prices. Also in the third quarter, there was a decline in private investment under the influence of the ECB's tough policy and a significant drop in production in industries such as the automotive industry. In addition, the market will pay attention to German data on business optimism in November from the IFO Institute and quarterly GDP. Analysts foresee an increase in the optimism index from 86.9 to 87.5 and the indicator of economic expectations from 84.7 to 85.7.Resistance levels: 1.0930, 1.0964, 1.1000, 1.1050.Support levels: 1.0900, 1.0850, 1.0800, 1.0765.AUD/USD: Australian dollar did not react to weak business activityThe AUD/USD currency pair is showing moderate growth, continuing the corrective movement that began at the end of the week and striving to return to the levels of local highs on August 10, updated on Tuesday. Technical factors support quotes against the background of reduced market activity due to Thanksgiving in the United States. However, today S&P Global data on business activity for November will be published, which may make adjustments: the index in the manufacturing sector is expected to decline from 50.0 to 49.8, and in the services sector - from 50.6 to 50.4.Earlier, the Australian dollar actually ignored weak local data on business activity. The index of services from the Commonwealth Bank in November fell from 47.9 to 46.3, which is worse than forecasts, and the indicator of the manufacturing sector from S&P Global fell from 48.2 to 47.7. Business is under pressure due to high inflation and tight monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which may worsen due to new measures to control the price pressure. Recall that on November 7, the rate was raised from 4.10% to 4.35%.Resistance levels: 0.6588, 0.6620, 0.6650, 0.6700.Support levels: 0.6550, 0.6520, 0.6500, 0.6472.USD/CHF: pair has stabilized near the lowest levels since SeptemberDuring the Asian trading session, the USD/CHF currency pair is experiencing a slight drop, checking the level of 0.8830 for the possibility of a break down and staying close to the September lows. Market activity is moderate, some traders are absent due to the celebration of Thanksgiving in the United States. The focus of today's trading is on business activity data for November, a slight decline in the index is expected in the manufacturing sector from 50.0 to 49.8 and in the service sector from 50.6 to 50.4.Switzerland's October foreign trade statistics were presented on Tuesday: exports decreased from 24.780 billion francs to 23.091 billion francs, imports decreased from 18.51 billion francs to 18.49 billion francs, and the trade surplus decreased from 6.28 billion to 4.60 billion francs. On Friday, the market expects a report on the employment rate for the third quarter, the previous figure increased from 5.389 million to 5.432 million. Recently, the Unia trade union in Switzerland announced an agreement with employers to raise wages by 2.5% in 2024, which exceeds the average inflation rate.Resistance levels: 0.8850, 0.8875, 0.8900, 0.8930.Support levels: 0.8820, 0.8800, 0.8760, 0.8730.USD/CAD: prices have reached the lower limit of the trading channel 1.3900–1.3650In the conditions of stabilization of the US dollar, the USD/CAD currency pair is experiencing a correction, trading around the 1.3701 mark.Canada's corporate net income in the third quarter increased by 4.7%, reaching $ 160.3 billion, especially due to growth in the financial sector by 6.7%. The increase in industry was modest, with the main contribution from oil and gas companies ($1.5 billion) due to improved sales prices. The automotive industry showed an increase of 527 million dollars, and the transport industry - by 267 million, with significant participation of air transportation. This development shows that the business is successfully adapting to high interest rates and returning to sustainable operation.Resistance levels: 1.3740, 1.3840.Support levels: 1.3670, 1.3570.
Nov 24, 2023 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/TRY, GBP/USD and Silver for November 23
EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/TRY, currency, Silver, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/TRY, GBP/USD and Silver for November 23 EUR/USD: investors expect results on business sentiment in the eurozoneThe EUR/USD currency pair is experiencing a correction, being at 1.0902, after moving away from the maximum values on August 11 over the past two days.Since the beginning of November, the euro has significantly strengthened against the background of positive changes in the economic situation. Data on business activity in key economic sectors of the EU countries is expected to be released today. It is expected that the index of manufacturing activity in France will increase from 42.8 to 43.1, in Germany - from 40.8 to 41.2, which contributes to an increase in the overall indicator for the EU to 43.4 from the previous 43.1. It is also assumed that the services indicator in France will rise from 45.2 to 45.6, in Germany - from 48.2 to 48.5, as a result of which the overall index for the eurozone will reach 48.1 compared to the previous 47.8.During the day, traders will expect the minutes of the ECB's November monetary policy meeting and a speech by the chairman of the German Federal Bank Joachim Nagel. On Friday, Germany will present GDP data, with forecasts for quarterly adjustments from 0.0% to -0.1% and annual - from -0.2% to -0.3%. Christine Lagarde from the ECB is scheduled to speak tomorrow, where she can give additional information about the future monetary policy of the region.Resistance levels: 1.0940, 1.1090.Support levels: 1.0840, 1.0730.USD/TRY: Turkish president announced the strengthening of the Turkish liraDuring the Asian trading session, the USD/TRY currency pair shows a slight decline, correcting after the recent sharp growth, and is currently at around 28.8300 ahead of new factors affecting the exchange rate.Trading activity is reduced due to the withdrawal of some investors from the market in connection with the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States. By the end of the week, the market's attention will be focused on the S&P Global manufacturing activity index for November, which is projected to decrease from 50.0 to 49.8, as well as on the indicator of activity in the service sector, which may change from 50.6 to 50.4. Yesterday's data on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits showed a decrease from 233.0 thousand to 209.0 thousand against the forecast of 225.0 thousand, and the number of repeated applications for the week to November 10 fell from 1.862 million to 1.84 million. Nevertheless, the October volume of orders for durable goods fell by -5.4%, after an increase of 4.6% earlier, which turned out to be worse than the expected decline of -3.1%.Resistance levels: 28.9000, 29.0000, 29.1000, 29.2000.Support levels: 28.7500, 28.6250, 28.5000, 28.4000.GBP/USD: the asset has moved away from the September highs and is stabilizing around the 1.2500 levelThe GBP/USD currency pair demonstrates unstable trading, being near the 1.2500 level. Yesterday, the pair showed a significant drop, moving away from the peak values on September 6, which was a consequence of the growth of corrective sentiment in the market. Investors have reduced their positions in the US dollar ahead of the Thanksgiving celebration.Meanwhile, the British pound did not receive support from the results of the hearings on the national budget and revised economic forecasts. UK Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt forecasts the country's economy to grow by 0.6% in 2023 and 0.7% in 2024, in contrast to previous estimates in March, which predicted a 0.2% decline in GDP this year and a 1.8% growth next. GDP growth forecasts for 2025 have been adjusted from 2.5% to 1.4%. It is also planned to reduce the national debt at an average level by 0.7 billion pounds in the coming years. Hunt also noted the reduction of recession risks and the growth of real incomes of the population, and also decided to postpone the increase in excise taxes on alcohol until August 1 to stimulate business.Resistance levels: 1.2500, 1.2550, 1.2600, 1.2650.Support levels: 1.2450, 1.2400, 1.2350, 1.2300.Silver price analysisThe trading asset slightly strengthens its position, remaining near the level of 23.60. Trading activity is reduced due to the closure of trading platforms in the United States in connection with Thanksgiving.Silver is finding support in the market due to expectations of the completion of the current cycle of interest rate increases by the US Federal Reserve. Despite the relatively strong statements and minutes of the Fed suggesting the possibility of another rate hike, the market is already beginning to anticipate the beginning of a period of monetary policy easing. Some analysts suggest that the first rate cut in 2024 may occur as early as the March meeting of the regulator.Resistance levels: 23.83, 24.00, 24.20, 24.42.Support levels: 23.60, 23.32, 23.00, 22.70.
Nov 23, 2023 Read
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