EUR/USD: Gfk Group reports an increase in consumer sentiment in Germany
The EUR/USD currency pair shows an ambiguous movement, stabilizing near the 1.0830 indicator: on the previous day, the pair showed attempts at an active upward movement, continuing the positive dynamics of the beginning of the week and reaching peak values since March 22.
Ahead of the day, investors are analyzing March data on economic sentiment in the euro area. It is expected that information will be provided on inflation in Spain, where growth is projected to 0.6% compared to the previous month and to 3.2% on an annual basis. In addition, representatives of the European Central Bank, including Piero Cipollone and Frank Elderson, are scheduled to speak.
In Germany, the April results on the Gfk Group consumer climate index were recently published, which came out better than expected: the index rose from -28.8 to -27.4, exceeding forecasts of -27.9. This indicates a gradual improvement in consumer sentiment in Europe's largest economy, with a growing tendency for households to increase spending. Rolf Buerkle, an expert at Gfk Group, notes that higher incomes and stability in the labor market create a favorable basis for the revival of consumption, although the population still lacks optimism about future economic development.
- Resistance levels: 1.0838, 1.0863, 1.0900, 1.0930.
- Support levels: 1.0820, 1.0800, 1.0765, 1.0730.
NZD/USD: the currency pair stabilizes near the key support level of 0.6000
During the Asian session, the NZD/USD currency pair is approaching the 0.6000 level, checking it for the possibility of a downward breakout. Investors are being cautious, refraining from opening new deals against the background of the upcoming Easter holidays and waiting for the publication of the price index for personal consumption in the United States, scheduled for Friday at 14:30 GMT +2.
This index is of key importance for the US Federal Reserve in assessing inflationary trends. It is expected that in February it will show an increase from 0.3% to 0.4% on a monthly basis and from 2.4% to 2.5% on an annual basis. The underlying index is expected to slow down from 0.4% to 0.3%. On the same day, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak, who may comment on future credit policy in light of the latest inflation data. Market monitoring of statements by other Fed representatives is also ongoing. For example, in a speech at Harvard, Lisa Cook of the Board of Governors stressed the need for caution in easing monetary policy, pointing to persistent inflation, especially in the real estate sector. Austan Goolsbee of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, in an interview with Yahoo Finance, noted that despite the general decline in the index, price pressure in the housing sector remains and this may contribute to a transition to a softer tone in regulation in the coming months.
- Resistance levels: 0.6000, 0.6030, 0.6049, 0.6076.
- Support levels: 0.5975, 0.5950, 0.5920, 0.5885.
AUD/USD: consumer inflation in Australia remains at its peak
With the strengthening of the US dollar, the AUD/USD exchange rate is at the level of 0.6530.
The February consumer price index in Australia rose 3.4% year-on-year, in line with previous data and exceeding expectations at 3.3%. The stability of the index was supported by an increase in prices for insurance and financial services (+8.4%), tobacco products (+6.1%), housing (+4.6%) and food products (+3.6%). The most significant price reductions affected meat and seafood (-2.0%), entertainment and culture (-1.7%), as well as gas and other household energy sources (-1.4%).
The US dollar showed stability after the previous decline, trading at 104.00 on the USDX index. The market reacted positively to data on basic orders for durable goods, which showed an increase of 0.5% in February after a decrease of 0.3% in the previous period, as well as an increase in orders for durable goods by 1.4% after a drop of 6.9%. The consumer confidence index from the Conference Board, based on a survey of 5.0 thousand American families and reflecting their assessment of the current and future economic climate, was fixed at 104.7 points against 104.8 points earlier, which had a temporary impact on the US currency.
- Resistance levels: 0.6560, 0.6630.
- Support levels: 0.6510, 0.6440.
Crude Oil market analysis
During Asian trade, WTI crude oil prices show a decline, continuing the trend of the previous day, when they rolled back from the levels reached on March 20, while heading towards testing the indicator of $ 80.60 per barrel downward.
In the context of the debate on the future of energy, OPEC Secretary General Haissam al-Gais criticized proposals to completely abandon the use of hydrocarbons to preserve the climate, calling such ideas "erroneous and divorced from reality." He stressed that such a step would have a negative impact on many aspects of life, including transport, food production, medicines, medical devices and even the manufacture of equipment for renewable energy sources, such as wind turbines and solar panels. He also noted that predictions of reaching a peak in oil consumption by 2030 are based on proposals for the complete elimination of fossil fuels. According to OPEC estimates, demand could reach 116 million barrels per day by 2045, and possibly 120 million barrels. Haysam al-Gais points out that approximately $14 trillion in investments in the energy industry will be required to meet future supply needs by 2045.
- Resistance levels: 81.00, 82.00, 83.00, 84.27.
- Support levels: 80.00, 79.07, 78.00, 77.00.