Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/CAD, USD/TRY and Silver for Thursday, May 23, 2024

Рыночные корреляции казались несинхронными, поскольку трейдеры готовились к отчету по индексу потребительских цен в США и серии выступлений членов FOMC, которые повлияли на политические ожидания ФРС и общие настроения.Биткойн вновь поднялся до новых рекордных максимумов, в то время как сырая нефть колебалась в ответ на опасения, связанные с добычей.Анализ экономических показателей за 13 ноябряКвартальный индекс цен на заработную плату в Австралии в третьем квартале составил 0,8% кв/кв (ожидалось 0,9%, ранее было 0,8%).Член Комитета по ценным бумагам и биржам Кэтрин Манн предположила, что инфляция не была “побеждена”, указывая на то, что политики могут подождать со снижением ставокОбщий индекс потребительских цен в США в октябре составил 0,2% м/м, как ожидалось; годовой индекс потребительских цен вырос с 2,4% до 2,6%, как ожидалось; Базовый индекс потребительских цен совпал с ожиданиями на уровне 0,3% м/м.Члены FOMC призвали к осторожности в отношении будущих снижений ставок:Официальный представитель FOMC Кашкари отметил, что денежно-кредитная политика, вероятно, удерживает инфляционные ожидания на прежнем уровнеОфициальный представитель FOMC Логан подчеркнул необходимость осторожности при принятии решения о степени снижения ставокОфициальный представитель FOMC Мусалем выступил за умеренно ограничительную политику, пока инфляция остается выше целевого уровня в 2%.Член FOMC Шмид заявил, что “еще предстоит выяснить”, насколько еще ФРС может снизить ставкиБаланс федерального бюджета США снизился с профицита в 64,3 млрд долларов до дефицита в 257,5 млрд долларов (ожидаемый дефицит в 226,4 млрд долларов).Индекс цен на продовольствие в Новой Зеландии снизился на 0,9% м/м в октябре после предыдущего роста на 0,5%Изменение цен на рынкеТорги на азиатской сессии в среду прошли в беспорядке, когда дело дошло до корреляции рисков, поскольку высокодоходные активы, такие как сырьевые товары, акции США и криптовалюты, двигались в разных направлениях. В частности, золото и нефть марки WTI выросли на бычьей ноте, в то время как биткоин и акции снизились.Доходность казначейских облигаций и доллар начали снижаться в преддверии публикации индекса потребительских цен в США, который совпал с ожиданиями и спровоцировал первоначальное снижение на фоне фиксации прибыли. Менее оптимистичные комментарии FOMC позволили паре BTC/USD набирать обороты на пути к новым историческим максимумам, близким к $ 94 тыс., в то время как индекс S&P 500, похоже, также выиграл от публикации индекса потребительских цен, но в конечном итоге закрылся без изменений.Между тем, цены на нефть марки WTI смогли восстановиться после резкого падения, возможно, вызванного перебоями в добыче из-за урагана "Рафаэль" на побережье Мексиканского залива. Однако цены на золото снизились на 0,64%, вероятно, из-за роста доходности и укрепления доллара.Поведение валютного рынка: курс доллара США по отношению к основным валютамДоллар, по-видимому, торговался осторожно в преддверии публикации индекса потребительских цен, при этом основные пары демонстрировали умеренный рост в течение азиатских и лондонских рыночных часов.Фактические результаты показали, что общая и базовая инфляция соответствовали ожиданиям рынка, что привело к некоторой фиксации прибыли, прежде чем доллар вырос по всем направлениям. Менее "голубиный" комментарий президента ФРС Миннеаполиса Кашкари, возможно, также способствовал укреплению доллара, поскольку он признал, что ожидания в отношении денежно-кредитной политики удерживают ценовое давление на прежнем уровне.Доллар США смог еще больше укрепиться, поскольку член FOMC Мусалем укрепил осторожную позицию в отношении будущих снижений ставок. Несмотря на то, что ралли, похоже, пошло на спад после выступления члена FOMC Шмида, в котором обсуждалась некоторая неопределенность в отношении путей будущего снижения ставок, оно все равно завершилось в плюсе по сравнению с остальными валютными парами.Предстоящие важные новости в экономическом календаре Форекс на 14 ноябряВыступление члена FOMC Куглера в 12:00 по ГринвичуОтчет о заседании ЕЦБ по денежно-кредитной политике в 12:30 по ГринвичуВыступление члена MPC Манна в 13:00 по ГринвичуОсновные данные по индексу потребительских цен в США в 13:30 по ГринвичуЧисло первичных заявок на пособие по безработице в США в 13:30 по ГринвичуВыступление члена FOMC Баркина в 14:00 по ГринвичуОценка запасов сырой нефти в США в 16:00 по ГринвичуВыступление президента ЕЦБ Лагард в 19:00 по ГринвичуВыступление председателя ФРС Пауэлла в 20:00 по ГринвичуВыступление главы Банка Англии Бейли в 21:00 по ГринвичуВыступление члена FOMC Уильямса в 21:15 по ГринвичуПроизводственный индекс деловой активности в Новой Зеландии в 21:30 по ГринвичуПредварительный индекс ВВП и цен Японии в 21:50 по ГринвичуВолатильность доллара может сохраниться на следующих торговых сессиях, поскольку другие представители ФРС, включая самого Джерома Пауэлла, выступят с речами и, возможно, обсудят сроки будущего смягчения. Данные по ценам производителей в США также могут повлиять на прогноз инфляции.Внимательно следите за протоколами заседания ЕЦБ, а также за выступлениями главы ЕЦБ Лагард, поскольку они также могут повлиять на направление движения евро в течение дня.

NZD/USD: rising inflation in New Zealand pushes the pair downDuring the Asian session on November 13, the NZD/USD pair shows a downward trend, trading around 0.5970, which is 0.85% lower than the level of the previous session.The economic situation in New Zealand remains tense. As of September 2024, the unemployment rate rose to 4.8% from the previous 4.6%, indicating a slowdown in economic activity. The business confidence index stood at 65.7 points in October, up from 60.9 points in September, but remains below the long-term average. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (PMI) in September fell to 46.9 points from 45.8 points in August, remaining below the threshold level of 50, indicating a reduction in manufacturing activity. Retail sales in the second quarter of 2024 decreased by 1.2% compared to the previous quarter, reflecting a decrease in consumer spending. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut the interest rate from 5.25% to 4.75% in October in an attempt to stimulate the economy. Inflation data for October will be published today at 15:30 (GMT+2); analysts expect the consumer price index (CPI) to increase by 0.6% on a monthly basis and by 2.2% on an annual basis, which may affect further decisions of the regulator.In the United States, economic indicators show mixed results. GDP in the second quarter of 2024 decreased by 0.2% compared to the previous quarter, indicating a slowdown in economic growth. The unemployment rate in September was 4.8%, up from 4.6% in August, which may indicate a weakening of the labor market. The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.6% month-on-month and 2.2% year-on-year in September, in line with analysts' expectations. The Federal Reserve System (FRS) left the interest rate unchanged at 5.25% in October, but in its statements indicated a possible tightening of monetary policy in the event of further inflation. Retail sales data for October will be published today at 15:30 (GMT+2); analysts predict an increase of 0.4% month-on-month and 1.3% year-on-year, which may support the position of the US dollar.Resistance levels: 0.6000, 0.6050.Support levels: 0.5950, 0.5900.USD/CHF: the growth of industrial production in Switzerland strengthens the francDuring the Asian session on November 13, the USD/CHF pair shows an upward trend, trading around 0.8753, which is 0.32% higher than the level of the previous session.In Switzerland, economic indicators show moderate growth. GDP in the second quarter of 2024 increased by 0.7% compared to the previous quarter, indicating stable economic growth. The unemployment rate in September was 2.3%, which corresponds to the previous month and indicates stability in the labor market. The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2% month-on-month and 1.5% year-on-year in October, which is below the target level of the Swiss National Bank (SNB). In October, the SNB left the interest rate unchanged at 1.5%, noting in its statement that the current monetary policy is in line with the economic situation. Industrial production data for September will be published today at 10:00 (GMT+2); analysts expect an increase of 0.5% month-on-month and 2.0% year-on-year, which may affect the position of the Swiss franc.Resistance levels: 0.8780, 0.8800.Support levels: 0.8730, 0.8700.Platinum market analysisDuring the Asian session on November 13, platinum quotes show a downward trend, holding around $990.55 per troy ounce, which is 1.60% lower than the level of the previous session.The economic situation in South Africa, one of the largest platinum producers, remains unstable. According to the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC), production is expected to decrease by 2% in 2024 due to restructuring and staff reductions at enterprises in the region after the fall in prices for palladium and rhodium. This could lead to a 12% reduction in global platinum reserves in 2024. In addition, stocks have already declined by 17% in 2023, reaching a four-year low of 3.62 million ounces. This situation creates prerequisites for a shortage of metal in the market, which can support prices in the medium term.China, the largest consumer of platinum, is experiencing a slowdown in economic growth. According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, GDP grew by 4.5% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2024, which is lower than analysts' expectations. The business activity index (PMI) in the manufacturing sector fell to 49.8 points in October, indicating a decrease in manufacturing activity. Reduced demand from the automotive industry, where platinum is used in catalysts, may put pressure on metal prices. Chinese industrial production data for October will be published today at 10:00 (GMT+2); analysts expect an increase of 3.9% year-on-year, which may affect the dynamics of platinum prices.Resistance levels: 1,008.50, 1,020.00.Support levels: 972.15, 960.00.Oil Market analysisDuring the Asian session on November 13, Brent crude oil quotes showed a slight increase, trading around $72.06 per barrel, which is 0.24% higher than the level of the previous session.Price dynamics are influenced by the recent revision by OPEC of the forecast of global oil demand growth in 2024 and 2025. The organization lowered its estimate of demand growth by 107 thousand barrels per day, expecting an increase of 1.8 million barrels per day in 2024. This is due to the slowdown in economic growth in China and other developing countries. Additional pressure on prices is exerted by the strengthening of the US dollar, which makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies.On the other hand, the market is supported by concerns about possible supply disruptions due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, especially in light of recent events related to Iran. In addition, it is expected that the US Federal Reserve may revise its monetary policy towards easing, which could potentially stimulate economic activity and, consequently, energy demand.Resistance levels: $73.50, $74.80.Support levels: $71.00, $70.00.

EUR/NZD: rising unemployment in New Zealand weakens the New Zealand dollarDuring the morning session, the EUR/NZD pair is trading around 1.8000, which is 0.5% higher compared to the previous session. The growth of the euro is due to the improvement of economic indicators in the eurozone and the weakening of the New Zealand dollar against the background of weak employment data.There is a moderate improvement in the economic situation in the eurozone. The Sentix investor sentiment index rose to -12.8 points in November from -13.8 in October, indicating a slight recovery in confidence. However, the indicator turned out to be below the predicted level of -12.5 points, indicating the continued caution of investors. In Germany, the region's largest economy, the sentiment index also rose to -29.8 points from -31.5, reflecting a slight improvement in economic expectations. The industrial production index for September will be published in the eurozone today at 12:00 (GMT+2). Experts expect a decrease of 0.4% on a monthly basis after an increase of 0.6% in August.The economic situation in New Zealand remains tense. The unemployment rate increased to 4.8% in the third quarter from 4.6% in the second quarter, exceeding analysts' expectations of an increase to 5%. Employment decreased by 0.5% compared to the previous quarter, which also exceeded the projected decrease of 0.4%. These data indicate a weakening of the labor market and may influence the decisions of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand regarding monetary policy. In New Zealand, the ANZ consumer confidence index for November is expected to be published tomorrow at 02:00 (GMT+2). It is predicted that the index may decrease from 85.4 to 84.0 points, which will signal the growing concern of the population about the country's economic prospects.Resistance levels: 1.8050, 1.8100.Support levels: 1,7950, 1,7900.GBP/JPY: The Central Bank of Japan maintains a soft monetary policyDuring the morning session on November 8, the GBP/JPY pair was trading around 196.50, which is 0.3% higher compared to the previous session. The strengthening of the British pound is due to recent economic data and official statements.In the UK, the services Business Activity index (PMI) rose to 54.2 points in October from 53.6 in September, indicating continued growth in the sector. The consumer confidence index also improved, reaching -7 points compared to -9 in the previous month. At the last meeting, the Bank of England kept the interest rate at 5.25%, noting that inflation fell to 2.1% year-on-year, approaching the target level. The head of the Bank, Andrew Bailey, said that the current monetary policy contributes to sustainable economic growth.The economic situation in Japan remains stable. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (PMI) in October amounted to 50.5 points, which indicates a slight increase. The unemployment rate remains at 2.5%. The Bank of Japan continues to adhere to a soft monetary policy, keeping the interest rate at -0.1%. Kazuo Ueda, the head of the Bank, noted that the current policy is aimed at stimulating economic growth and achieving the 2% inflation target. Data on orders for machinery and equipment for October is expected to be published tomorrow at 01:30 (GMT+2). A decrease of 0.3% is forecast compared to the previous month. Negative data may increase pressure on the yen, as a decrease in orders indicates a possible slowdown in industrial activity, which may support the Bank of Japan's position on soft monetary policy.Resistance levels: 197.00, 198.50.Support levels: 195.50, 194.00.USD/CAD: weak Ivey index puts pressure on the Canadian dollarDuring the morning session, the USD/CAD pair is trading around 1.3915, which is 0.2% higher compared to the previous session. The growth of the US dollar puts pressure on the Canadian dollar, which is influenced by weak macroeconomic statistics.In October, the Ivey composite business activity index, calculated on the basis of a survey of purchasing and supply managers of leading national enterprises in all industries, fell from 53.1 points to 52.0 points, the lowest since spring, excluding the August drop, and the indicator, excluding seasonal fluctuations, from 54.4 points to 52.2 points, interrupting the upward trend. A report from the labor market will be published today at 15:30 (GMT+2): experts assume that unemployment will increase from 6.5% to 6.6% against the background of changes in employment from 46.7 thousand to 27.9 thousand.The US dollar is strengthening amid expectations of an interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve. The market expects the regulator to raise the rate by 25 basis points to 5.25% at the next meeting. In addition, US inflation data released last week showed an increase in the consumer price index (CPI) by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.7% year-on-year, which is higher than analysts' forecasts. Today, November 8, at 15:30 (GMT+2), data on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States will be published. The indicator is expected to decrease from 210 thousand. up to 205 thousand, which may strengthen the position of the US dollar.Resistance levels: 1.3920, 1.4050.Support levels: 1.3820, 1.3650.Silver market analysisAs of November 8, 2024, the price of silver (XAG/USD) is 24.50 US dollars per troy ounce, which is 0.8% higher compared to the previous trading session.In the United States, the consumer price index (CPI) for October was published, which showed an increase of 0.3% for the month and 3.2% year-on-year, which is in line with analysts' expectations. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, confirming the stability of the labor market. GDP for the third quarter grew by 2.5% year-on-year. These data strengthen the dollar's position, but also support silver as a protective asset, as a moderate increase in inflation keeps demand for precious metals in an uncertain environment. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for November is expected to be released today at 15:30 (GMT+2). The indicator is projected at 72.5 points, which is higher than the previous value of 71.0 points. An improvement in consumer sentiment may support the demand for silver as a protective asset in a stable market.In Europe, the economy is showing signs of slowing down. Euro area GDP grew by 1.8% year-on-year in the third quarter, slightly below expectations. The business activity index (PMI) in the manufacturing sector fell to 48.5 points, indicating a decrease in activity. The European Central Bank (ECB) has expressed concern about the slowdown in economic growth and its potential impact on global markets. In China, GDP increased by 4.9% year-on-year in the third quarter, which supports interest in industrial metals, but the slowdown in the PMI to 50.2 indicates a potential limitation in demand for silver. On Monday, November 11, at 11:00 (GMT+2), data on industrial production in the euro area for September will be released. An increase of 0.2% is expected compared to the previous month. Positive data may boost industrial demand for silver.Resistance levels: 25.00, 25.50.Support levels: 24.00, 23.50.

EUR/USD: euro strengthens to new highs before the US electionsThe EUR/USD pair is showing moderate growth, recovering from the "bearish" trend of last Friday. The tool is testing new local highs reached on October 15, in anticipation of fresh drivers for movement.On Monday, the EU will publish macroeconomic statistics for October on business activity from S&P Global. It is expected that the indicators will remain at the level of last month: the index of manufacturing activity in Germany will be 42.6 points, and for the eurozone as a whole — 45.9 points. Representatives of the German Federal Bank and the European Central Bank (ECB) are also scheduled to speak during the day, which may affect the prospects for changes in the monetary policy of the region. According to a study by Ernst & Young Global Ltd., 45.0% of German industrial companies plan to expand abroad, while only 13.0% intend to maintain operations in the country. At the same time, 29.0% of companies are considering moving their headquarters outside Germany, while only 4.0% prefer to manage their business from the inside. Two thirds of the managers surveyed predict job cuts in the coming years.American investors are focused on the upcoming presidential elections scheduled for November 5th. The position of Republican candidate Donald Trump was strengthened by a weak report on the labor market, which is often used as an argument in favor of the current Joe Biden administration. In October, the US economy created only 12.0 thousand new jobs outside agriculture, with an expected 113.0 thousand, whereas in September the increase was 223.0 thousand. The average hourly wage increased from 3.9% to 4.0% and from 0.3% to 0.4%, indicating continued moderate inflation risks. Despite the initial decline in the dollar, it subsequently managed to recover, as such low figures were explained by the consequences of two major hurricanes and protests by employees of The Boeing Co.Resistance levels: 1.0900, 1.0930, 1.0950, 1.1000.Support levels: 1.0871, 1.0838, 1.0800, 1.0765.GBP/USD: pair holds positions at local highsThe GBP/USD pair shows moderate growth, consolidating at the level of 1.2990 and the recent highs of October 31. Market activity remains low, as investors prefer to refrain from opening new positions before the US presidential elections, which will be held on November 5. The current dollar quotes include the probability of a victory for the Republican candidate Donald Trump, which may lead to a tightening of tariff policy and a slower reduction in interest rates by the Fed.The October labor market report released on Friday had only a short-term impact, as markets no longer associate current economic data with a future administration. The US economy has created only 12,000 new jobs outside agriculture, which was the lowest result during Joe Biden's presidency. In September, this figure was 223 thousand, and in October, an increase to 113 thousand was predicted. The average hourly wage increased from 0.3% to 0.4% on a monthly basis and from 3.9% to 4.0% on an annual basis. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. Investors also noted a decrease in the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from ISM to 46.5 points with a forecast of 47.6 points, after the previous value of 47.2.On Thursday, the Bank of England will hold the last monetary policy meeting of the year. Economists polled by Reuters forecast a rate cut of 25 basis points to 4.75%, despite the recently presented draft budget from Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves, which caused a contradictory reaction among investors. The budget assumes a significant tax increase to ensure revenue in the amount of 40 billion pounds. In particular, it is planned to increase companies' contributions to the National Insurance Fund (NI) to 15% and increase the capital gains rate (CGT) from 10% to 18% for low-income taxpayers and from 20% to 24% for high incomes. These changes can create pressure on the business, reducing its profitability, which worries investors who refuse to invest in the pound. The Bank of England has also raised its forecasts for GDP growth for the current and next years and expects the consumer price index to rise from 2.5% to 2.6% by 2025.Resistance levels: 1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3150.Support levels: 1.2948, 1.2900, 1.2860, 1.2817.USD/CHF: mixed trading in the Asian sessionIn the morning, the USD/CHF pair shows a moderate decline, remaining near the 0.8650 level, amid a decrease in market activity before the announcement of the results of the US presidential election.The victory of Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, may lead to a revision of monetary policy against the background of a new tariff strategy and a reduction in geopolitical tensions due to a more restrained foreign policy approach, which will potentially support the US dollar. The Fed is scheduled to meet on Thursday, and analysts expect a 25 basis point rate cut to 4.75%. Traders will pay special attention to the comments of the Fed representatives after the meeting in order to understand the prospects for another rate change this year.In Switzerland, the consumer price index in October decreased from 0.8% to 0.6% in annual terms, while on a monthly basis the indicator rose from -0.3% to -0.1%, while analysts predicted zero values in both cases. In addition, retail sales in September adjusted from 2.7% to 2.2%, which was lower than the expected 2.5%.Resistance levels: 0.8669, 0.8700, 0.8730, 0.8776.Support levels: 0.8631, 0.8600, 0.8570, 0.8541.NZD/USD: reduced trading volatilityThe NZD/USD pair is correcting near the level of 0.6006 against the background of a weakening US dollar and positive macroeconomic statistics on the New Zealand real estate market.In September, the number of approved applications for the construction of new homes increased from -5.2% to 2.6% on a monthly basis, although since the beginning of the year it has amounted to 33,677 thousand, which is 17.0% less than in the previous period. In the third quarter, the number of applications increased from -2.8% to 6.2%, but the indicator for non-residential facilities in September showed a decrease of -9.1 billion New Zealand dollars, which corresponds to a drop of 6.4% year-on-year and indicates the weakness of this sector.The US dollar in the Asian session fell to the level of 103.50 in USDX amid lower volatility and expectations of the results of the US presidential election and the Fed's decision on monetary policy, which will be announced on Thursday. The chances of winning candidates from both parties are estimated to be approximately equal, so investors are following cautious tactics before the announcement of the election results. According to the FedWatch Tool from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut is 99.0%, and this scenario has already been taken into account in the quotes.Resistance levels: 0.6020, 0.6110.Support levels: 0.5980, 0.5880.

EUR/USD: Eurozone GDP grew by 0.4%, supporting the euroAs of November 1, 2024, the EUR/USD currency pair is trading at 1.0767, which is 0.5% lower compared to the previous session.The economic situation in the eurozone remains difficult. Annual inflation in October was 2.0%, which is higher than analysts' expectations of 1.9%. Core inflation remained at 2.7%, which exceeds the target level of the European Central Bank (ECB). GDP for the third quarter grew by 0.4% in quarterly terms, exceeding growth forecasts of 0.2%, indicating some recovery in economic activity. The unemployment rate in the region has stabilized at 6.3%. Despite these data, the ECB decided at its meeting on October 30 to leave the key rate at 3.75%, citing the need for further analysis of economic conditions before changing monetary policy. Retail sales data for September is expected to be published at 11:00 (GMT+2), where a decrease of 0.2% is forecast; this may put pressure on the euro in case of confirmation or deterioration of indicators.In the United States, the economic situation is showing resilience. Data on the number of jobs created outside agriculture (Non-Farm Payrolls) is expected to be published at 15:30 (GMT+2). The forecast is 113,000, which supports expectations of stability in the labor market. If the data turns out to be higher than forecasts, this may strengthen the dollar's position and lead to a further decline in the EUR/USD pair. The business activity index (PMI) for October showed an increase to 51.5 points, which is higher than the previous 50.8 and confirms the expansion of production activity. On October 31, the Fed raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 5.25%-5.50%, arguing that maintaining economic growth and inflation control. At 14:00 (GMT+2), data on the business activity index (PMI) in the US manufacturing sector will also be published, a decrease to 49.5 points is expected, which may affect the dollar if it deviates from the forecast.Resistance levels: 1.0850, 1.0940.Support levels: 1.0800, 1.0720.GBP/USD: falling retail sales and weak PMI put pressure on the poundAs of November 1, 2024, the GBP/USD currency pair is trading at 1.2980, which is 0.5% lower compared to the previous session.The UK continues to face economic challenges. The business activity index (PMI) in the manufacturing sector fell to 48.5 in October, indicating a decrease in activity in the sector. The consumer confidence index also fell to 95.0, reflecting public concern about the economic situation. Gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter showed an increase of 0.2% in quarterly terms, which is in line with analysts' expectations. The consumer price index (CPI) increased by 3.1% year-on-year in September, which is higher than the target level of the Bank of England. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, unchanged from the previous month. The producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 2.8% year-on-year, indicating an increase in costs for manufacturers. The business confidence index dropped to 98.0, reflecting the pessimistic mood among entrepreneurs. The index of leading economic indicators (LEI) decreased by 0.3% in September, which may indicate a slowdown in economic activity in the coming months. Retail sales in September decreased by 0.5% on a monthly basis, indicating a decrease in consumer activity. The balance of foreign trade showed a deficit of 5.2 billion pounds, indicating an excess of imports over exports. At the last meeting, the Bank of England left the interest rate unchanged at 5.25%, noting the need for further monitoring of inflation risks. The head of the Bank of England announced his readiness to take additional measures in case of deterioration of the economic situation.Resistance levels: 1.3050, 1.3100.Support levels: 1.2950, 1.2900.USD/CAD: trade surplus supports CAD amid volatilityAs of November 1, 2024, the USD/CAD currency pair is trading at 1.3933, which is 0.5% higher compared to the previous session.The economic and political situation in Canada demonstrates diverse trends that are reflected in the dynamics of the Canadian dollar. In the third quarter of 2024, real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.4% in quarterly terms, which is higher than in the second quarter, but below the expectations of analysts, who predicted growth of 0.5%. The main drivers of growth were the financial and insurance sectors, which showed an increase of 0.5%, and the services sector, including transport, where growth was 0.3%. However, the downturn in the manufacturing sector, where the business activity index (PMI) fell to 49.1, indicates problems in industry, affecting export dynamics and affecting domestic economic prospects.The situation with foreign trade remains positive. The trade surplus in the last reporting period amounted to 1.2 billion Canadian dollars due to high demand for energy resources and agricultural goods. However, volatility in global oil and gas prices may pose a risk to the sustainability of the Canadian economy and the CAD exchange rate, as a significant portion of the country's income depends on these export sectors. Investors will be closely watching upcoming publications on retail sales and the producer price index (PPI), which may have an impact on the prospects for the Canadian dollar.Resistance levels: 1.3946, 1.4075.Support levels: 1.3890, 1.3750.Silver market analysisAs of November 1, 2024, silver is trading at $33.66 per troy ounce, which is 0.27% lower compared to the previous session.Important economic events affecting the price of silver are observed in silver-producing countries. In Mexico, the largest producer of silver, GDP grew by 0.5% in quarterly terms in the third quarter of 2024, which is lower than analysts' expectations of 0.7% growth. The consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.4% in October compared to September, indicating continued inflationary pressures. The central bank of Mexico has left its key interest rate at 11.25% to control inflation. In Peru, the second largest producer, industrial production decreased by 1.2% year-on-year in September 2024 due to the downturn in the mining sector. The business confidence index fell to 45 points, which demonstrates a pessimistic mood.Among the silver-consuming countries, the United States and China play a key role. In the United States, GDP for the third quarter of 2024 increased by 2.1% year-on-year, in line with analysts' expectations. However, the Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell to 98 points in October, reflecting concerns about future economic conditions. The Fed kept its key rate at 5.5%, while continuing to monitor inflation. In China, GDP growth slowed to 4.5% in the third quarter from 5.2% in the second quarter. The PMI in the manufacturing sector fell to 49.8 points in October, indicating a reduction in activity. The Chinese government has announced plans to increase government spending on infrastructure to boost the economy.Resistance levels: 34.50, 35.00.Support levels: 33.00, 32.50.

USD/TRY: Turkey's inflation decline below 10% is expected by the end of 2026During morning trading, the USD/TRY pair demonstrates a multidirectional movement, consolidating at 34.2700 against the background of US macroeconomics data, while market activity remains weak.The October report by Automatic Data Processing (ADP) on private sector employment showed an increase from 159.0 thousand to 233.0 thousand, which exceeded analysts' expectations of 115.0 thousand. However, US GDP for the third quarter decreased from 3.0% to 2.8%, falling short of the projected 3.1%. If negative trends continue, the US Federal Reserve may continue to ease monetary policy after a possible interest rate cut of 25 basis points at the next meeting. The actions of the regulator will be significantly influenced by the results of the presidential elections on November 5: if the representative of the Republican Party Donald Trump wins, the US tariff policy may change, which will require a stronger national currency. On Friday at 14:30 (GMT+2), a report on the labor market for October is expected to be published: it is predicted that the number of new jobs outside agriculture will decrease from 254.0 thousand to 111.0 thousand, and the average hourly wage growth will decrease from 0.4% to 0.3%. Today at 14:30 (GMT+2), attention will be focused on the September personal consumption expenditure index: the base indicator may slow down from 2.7% to 2.6% in annual terms and accelerate from 0.1% to 0.3% on a monthly basis.The lira is under pressure due to the unstable economic situation inside the country, although there are signs of optimism. The media reports that the Central Bank of Turkey plans to reduce the interest rate in December from 50.00% to 48.25%, after the regulator left it at the same level for the seventh time in a row on October 17. Annual inflation fell from 51.97% to 49.38% in September, breaking the 50.0% mark for the first time in more than a year. Finance Minister Mehmet Shimshek said that due to strict fiscal and monetary policy, inflation could fall to 10.00% by the end of 2026. He also noted that the Central Bank's reserves have increased by $ 100.0 billion over the past year and a half, and the level of public debt to GDP is 26.0%, which gives Turkey an advantage in terms of economic development.Resistance levels: 34.3096, 34.3500, 34.4091, 34.5000.Support levels: 34.2325, 34.1800, 34.0939, 34.0000.USD/JPY: the interest rate of the Bank of Japan remained 0.25%The USD/JPY pair is showing a moderate decline, retreating from the local highs on July 31, reached at the beginning of the week. The instrument is testing the level of 152.90 for a breakdown downwards, while market participants are waiting for the publication of important statistics on the US labor market.Today, investors are focused on the results of the Bank of Japan meeting: the regulator left the interest rate unchanged at 0.25%, which coincided with expectations. Kazuo Ueda, the head of the bank, has noted in recent months that any changes will depend on the fulfillment of forecasts for inflation and economic growth, as well as on external factors. Some analysts believe that the US presidential election, scheduled for November 5, may increase concern among investors and affect the Japanese market. In the current fiscal year ending in March 2025, the bank forecasts the consumer price index to remain at 2.5%, with a possible decrease to 1.9% next year, which is below the target of 2.0%. The country's GDP is expected to grow by 0.6%. The monetary authorities are under pressure from the domestic political situation: the October 27 elections to the lower house of parliament led to the loss of the majority by the ruling coalition, which forces it to seek new partners or form a minority government.Retail sales statistics in Japan also put pressure on the yen: in September, their annual growth slowed sharply from 2.8% to 0.5%, which is significantly lower than preliminary forecasts of 2.3%, and on a monthly basis the indicator decreased by 2.3% after an increase of 1.0% in the previous month.Resistance levels: 153.50, 154.50, 155.50, 156.50.Support levels: 152.50, 151.50, 150.50, 150.00.AUD/USD: inflation boosted confidence in the RBA's soft positionThe AUD/USD pair shows mixed dynamics during the Asian session on October 31, holding near the level of 0.6570, under pressure from Australian macroeconomic statistics.Retail sales in September fell sharply from 0.7% to 0.1% with a forecast 0.3%, and in the third quarter the indicator increased by 0.5% after a decrease of 0.3%. At the same time, the number of construction permits issued increased by 4.4% after falling by 3.9% a month earlier, and year-on-year growth accelerated from 3.6% to 6.8%. Additionally, Chinese statistics attracted investors' attention: the index of business activity in the service sector in October rose from 50.0 to 50.2 points, which fell short of expectations of 50.4 points, and the manufacturing index from the Chinese Federation of Logistics and Supply increased from 49.8 to 50.1 points, surpassing forecasts of 50.0 points.On the eve of the Australian inflation data put pressure on the AUD/USD pair, increasing expectations of further monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The consumer price index in September decreased from 2.7% to 2.1% in annual terms, which turned out to be lower than forecasts of 2.3%, and in the quarter — from 1.0% to 0.2%, with an expected 0.3%. The figures reached a three-year low amid electricity subsidies and lower gasoline prices, but price growth in the service sector remains high, forcing the RBA to maintain a "hawkish" position in monetary policy.Resistance levels: 0.6600, 0.6622, 0.6650, 0.6675.Support levels: 0.6536, 0.6500, 0.6456, 0.6420.Gold Market analysisAs of October 31, 2024, the price of gold is $2,786.44 per ounce, which is 0.21% higher compared to the previous trading session. The price increase is due to increased demand for precious metals in the context of global economic and geopolitical challenges.The economic situation in the United States has a significant impact on the current dynamics of the gold market. The Fed maintains a restrained position on interest rates, given the stabilizing inflation, which remains near the target level of 2%. However, higher Treasury bond yields and a strong dollar are supporting interest in American assets. Despite this, gold retains its position due to uncertainty in the global economy and expectations of possible adjustments to the Fed's policy. US GDP figures for the third quarter exceeded forecasts, showing growth of 2.4%, which added confidence in the stability of the economy and the continuation of current policies. Also at 15:30 (GMT+2), data on the consumer spending index (PCE) in the United States is expected to be published, which serves as a key indicator of inflation for the Federal Reserve System. Analysts predict that the indicator in September will remain at 0.3% on a monthly basis and 3.7% on an annual basis, which will confirm the stability of current inflation. This event may put pressure on the gold exchange rate, as confirmation of stable inflation may deter the Fed from easing policy. At 16:00 (GMT+2), data on the ISM manufacturing activity index for October will be presented. The indicator is expected to decrease to 49.5 points from the previous level of 50.0, which indicates a decrease in activity in the manufacturing sector. A decrease in the index may support gold quotes, as it indicates a slowdown in economic activity in the United States.Resistance levels: $2,800 and $2,820.Support levels: $2,775 and $2,750.

EUR/TRY: ECB holds rates amid slowdown in eurozone growthAs of October 29, 2024, the EUR/TRY currency pair is trading at 36.94, which is 0.07% lower compared to the previous trading session. The depreciation of the euro against the Turkish lira is due to the unstable economic situation in Turkey and ongoing problems with inflation.The economic situation in Turkey continues to be under pressure. The latest inflation data (CPI) shows that annual inflation reached 61.5% in September, well above the target level of the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT). In response, the CBRT raised its key interest rate to 35% in an attempt to curb inflationary risks and stabilize the national currency. However, these measures have not yet had a significant effect, as inflation continues to put pressure on consumer activity, and GDP growth slowed to 2.4% in the third quarter. Against this background, political uncertainty in the country also contributes to the weakening of the lira, despite CBRT's attempts to stabilize the economy through tight monetary policy.The situation in the eurozone remains less tense, but economic problems persist. The latest inflation data showed a decline to 4.3% in September, which is below forecasts, but still well above the target level of the European Central Bank (ECB). The ECB has signaled its readiness to keep interest rates at a high level, which supports the euro exchange rate. However, the slowdown in economic growth in key countries such as Germany and France is having a dampening effect on demand for the euro.Resistance levels: 37.14, 37.50.Support levels: 36.68, 36.30.GBP/USD: the exchange rate is stabilizing in anticipation of new factorsDuring the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is held near the 1.2965 level. The pound is under some pressure against the background of statistics on retail price indices published by the British Consortium of Retailers (BRC): the annual rate accelerated from -0.6% to -0.8% in October, while -0.5% was expected. These data indirectly indicate a decrease in inflationary pressure, which may allow the Bank of England to actively reduce interest rates.A report on consumer lending is expected to be published in the UK today at 11:30 (GMT+2). Net consumer lending is projected to decrease from 4.2 billion pounds to 4.1 billion pounds in September, and the number of approved mortgage applications will decrease from 64,858 thousand to 64,200 thousand. The downward trend in quotations is reinforced by business activity data published at the end of last week: the index in the manufacturing sector from S&P Global fell from 51.5 to 50.3 points, falling short of the forecast of 51.4 points, the index of business activity in the services sector fell from 52.4 to 51.8 points, although 52.2 points were expected, and the composite index decreased from 52.6 to 51.7 points.The head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, noted that with the introduction of a national digital currency (CBDC) called "Britcoin", cash will remain in circulation. In July, the regulator stressed the importance of timely response to the rapid development of financial technologies and expressed readiness to use distributed ledger technology (DLT) in experiments, taking into account the possible consequences for the financial system.Resistance levels: 1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3150.Support levels: 1.2948, 1.2900, 1.2860, 1.2817.USD/CAD: Bank of Canada targets neutral interest rateDuring the morning session, the USD/CAD pair shows a slight increase, remaining near the level of 1.3900 and the peaks reached on August 5, amid lower expectations of a sharper reduction in the US Federal Reserve interest rate. After the rate was cut by 50 basis points in September, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell called for caution in further easing monetary policy. As a result, the markets have almost completely revised their forecasts for the meetings in November and December, and now the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut next month is estimated at about 85%.Last week, the Bank of Canada cut the rate by 50 basis points to 3.75%, saying that inflation is expected to be at the target level, which creates conditions for further easing of credit policy. According to forecasts, GDP growth will be 1.2% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025, while the consumer price index is projected at 2.5% and 2.2%, respectively. In 2026, inflation is expected to fall to 2.0%. The head of the Bank of Canada, Tiff Macklem, stressed that the current measures are justified, since earlier the rate was raised quite decisively to curb inflation. He also noted the need to set the rate at a neutral level, which does not affect the economy, subject to consolidation of inflation at 2.0%. Thus, despite the continuing "dovish" rhetoric, traders have not yet received clear signals about the final values of the rates.Resistance levels: 1.3908, 1.3950, 1.4000, 1.4050.Support levels: 1.3862, 1.3838, 1.3800, 1.3765.Gold market analysisAs of October 29, 2024, the price of gold is $2,747.50 per ounce, which is 0.54% lower compared to the previous trading session. The decrease is due to the strengthening of the US dollar and positive expectations in global markets related to the de-escalation of geopolitical risks.The economic situation in the United States has a significant impact on the current dynamics of gold. Investors continue to closely monitor the actions of the Federal Reserve System (FRS), as the next meeting is approaching, where the issue of interest rates will be discussed. According to the latest data, inflation in the United States remains at 3.7%, which allows the Fed to maintain current high rates to control inflation. GDP growth data for the third quarter also turned out to be higher than expected and showed an increase of 2.4%, which supports the dollar's position. This puts pressure on gold, as the strengthening of the dollar makes precious metals more expensive for buyers using other currencies.At the international level, there is an increase in demand for gold, as the central banks of a number of countries, including China and India, continue to increase their gold reserves. However, the recent easing of tensions in the Middle East reduces demand for safe haven assets, including gold, which also makes adjustments to price dynamics. In the short term, analysts predict that a possible reduction in tensions and stable economic data from the United States may put additional pressure on the price of gold.Resistance levels: $2,760.00, $2,780.00.Support levels: $2,725.00, $2,700.00.

EUR/GBP: Euro holds growth by the end of the weekThe EUR/GBP pair is showing moderate growth, continuing the upward correction started this week and holding near the local highs recorded on October 17.Investors' main attention is focused on business activity data for October in the EU and the UK. In the eurozone, the index of business activity in the service sector, published by S&P Global, fell from 51.4 to 51.2 points, although an increase to 51.6 points was expected. In the manufacturing sector, the indicator increased from 45.0 to 45.9 points, which exceeded analysts' forecasts of 45.1 points, while the composite index in the same sector increased slightly from 49.6 to 49.7 points, coinciding with market expectations. In the UK, the statistics turned out to be more negative: the index of business activity in industry fell from 51.5 to 50.3 points, against the expected 51.4 points, and the index in the services sector fell from 52.4 to 51.8 points, falling short of the projected 52.2 points. The composite indicator from S&P Global/CIPS also showed a decrease from 52.6 to 51.7 points. Additionally, the British currency is under pressure from a deterioration in consumer sentiment: the Gfk Group confidence index fell from -20.0 to -21.0 points in October.Market participants continue to closely monitor the development of monetary policy in the eurozone. Traders are still expecting a rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB), while forecasts for changes in the policy of the US Federal Reserve Bank are changing amid the increased chances of Donald Trump winning the presidential election scheduled for November 5. Meanwhile, ECB President Christine Lagarde said that final decisions on interest rates have not yet been made, and called for a cautious approach to possible adjustments. The head of the Bank of Portugal, Mario Centeno, on the contrary, called for a sharp rate cut of 50 basis points at the next ECB meeting on December 12.Resistance levels: 0.8350, 0.8359, 0.8370, 0.8384.Support levels: 0.8338, 0.8326, 0.8310, 0.8294.NZD/USD: RBNZ reacts to rising unemployment and lowers interest ratesOn October 25, the NZD/USD currency pair is trading at 0.5996, which is 0.33% lower compared to the previous trading session. The New Zealand dollar continues to weaken amid weak economic data and actions by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). The bank recently lowered its key interest rate to 4.75%, due to a slowdown in inflation to 4.9% and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.1%. RBNZ is trying to stimulate domestic consumption and support exports, as the economy continues to show signs of slowing down.In addition, the pressure on the NZD exchange rate is exerted by the global trend in favor of the US dollar, which remains stable due to stable economic indicators in the United States. The main focus of the market is on the expected data on US GDP for the third quarter, as well as on the publication of the consumer spending index (PCE), which is a key indicator of inflation for the Fed. Inflation in the United States is stable at 3.7%, which gives the Federal Reserve reason to maintain the current policy of high rates.The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has issued a statement on its readiness to take additional measures to support the economy if domestic demand does not recover in the coming quarters. In turn, the strengthening of the US dollar is associated with confidence that the Fed will be able to control inflationary risks in a tight monetary policy environment. Any deviations in the GDP or PCE data may lead to increased volatility in the market and a change in the dynamics of the NZD/USD pair.Resistance levels: 0.6020, 0.6080.Support levels: 0.5950, 0.5910.AUD/JPY: Inflation in Australia is slowing, putting pressure on AUDAs of October 25, 2024, the AUD/JPY currency pair is trading at 100.64, which is 0.07% lower compared to the previous trading session. This decrease is due to the strengthening of the Japanese yen against the background of recent statements by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and weakening economic activity in Australia.The economic situation in Australia remains difficult. In the recent inflation report for the third quarter, the consumer price index (CPI) fell to 5.1%, which is lower than the previous 5.6%. This indicates a weakening of inflationary pressures, but the economy remains vulnerable, which forces the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to adhere to a cautious monetary policy. At the same time, the unemployment rate in the country rose to 3.9%, which is higher than analysts' expectations. In response to these economic challenges, the RBA is not yet considering an active tightening of policy, which also puts pressure on the Australian dollar.In Japan, the situation is more stable, but challenges remain. The Bank of Japan maintains an extremely soft monetary policy, despite an increase in inflation to 3.2% in annual terms. The level of business activity remains below 50 points, indicating a slowdown in the economy, but the BOJ continues to monitor bond yields in an attempt to support growth. This decision has a positive effect on the yen, increasing its competitiveness, especially against the background of the strengthening Australian dollar.Resistance levels: 101.00, 101.50.Support levels: 100.30, 99.90.Copper market analysisAs of October 25, 2024, the price of Copper is $9,367.25 per ton, which is 0.04% more than in the previous trading session. The price increase is due to continued demand amid supply uncertainty and the recovery of industrial production in key consumer countries such as China.The economic situation in China has a significant impact on the copper market. China, as the world's largest consumer of copper, continues to show signs of recovery in industrial production. The latest data on the index of business activity in the industrial sector (PMI) for September showed an increase to 50.3 points, which indicates the return of activity to a positive zone. The Chinese authorities also announced support for infrastructure projects, which led to an increase in demand for copper in the construction and energy industries. Investors continue to closely monitor the government's policy on stimulating the economy, as any measures to support production could significantly increase demand for copper in the coming months.In the global context, there are also concerns about the limited supply of copper against the background of geopolitical risks and possible supply disruptions. Problems in the extractive sector in a number of countries, such as Chile and Peru, affect overall production and keep prices high. Chilean mines are facing protests and operational difficulties, which limit copper exports, while in Peru, logistics and labor problems continue to constrain supply volumes.Resistance levels: $9,450, $9,600.Support levels: $9,300, $9,150.