EUR/USD: euro recovers the losses of the previous session
During the Asian trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair is gaining momentum, recovering from a rapid correction, with the current trading level at 1.0949.
The improvement in indicators is due to fresh macroeconomic data from Germany: in November, an increase in the number of new car registrations was recorded by 12.2%, in contrast to the previous drop of 2.5%, although their number decreased by 5.7% year-on-year. The producer price index showed a decrease of -0.5% month-on-month compared to the previous -0.1%, and from -11.0% to -7.9% year-on-year. On Wednesday, analysts also noted a slight increase in the Gfk Group consumer confidence index in January from -27.6 to -25.1 points, contrary to forecasts of a drop to -27.0 points. The euro was also influenced by data on industrial inflation in Germany, where in November the indicator fell from -0.1% to -0.5%, exceeding analysts' expectations of -0.3%, and from -11.0% to -7.9% with a projected -7.5%. Joachim Nagel, President of the German Federal Bank and ECB member, stressed the need to maintain high interest rates to combat inflation, warning traders who expect an early reduction in borrowing costs against excessive optimism.
- Resistance levels: 1.0990, 1.1090.
- Support levels: 1.0890, 1.0790.
USD/CHF: franc strengthening on the background of positive macroeconomics
Against the background of the weakening of the US dollar, the USD/CHF currency pair shows a decline, being at the level of 0.8624.
The strengthening of the Swiss franc is due to favorable macroeconomic statistics: the construction cost index increased by 0.6% from April to October, reaching 114.5 points due to growth in the civil engineering segment. This led to an annual increase of 1.6%. Today, the quarterly report of the Swiss National Bank was published, focusing on the decrease in inflationary trends in the current quarter compared to the previous one, which contributed to reducing pressure in the country's economy. We remind you that in September and October, the consumer price index was 1.7%, which is the lowest since January 2022 and is below the 2.0% level, and in November it fell to 1.4%. In this regard, at the last meeting this year, the regulator left the interest rate at 1.75%, stating that it would continue to analyze macroeconomic data for timely regulation of monetary policy.
- Resistance levels: 0.8679, 0.8855.
- Support levels: 0.8606, 0.8483.
Silver price analysis
The price of silver is showing a moderate rise, trying to overcome the level of 24.25. This instrument shows an active uptrend on both a short- and ultra-short-term basis, taking advantage of the current weakness of the US dollar, which does not receive support from the American macroeconomic situation.
This week, traders analyzed inflation data in the eurozone and the UK. In November, the consumer price index in the eurozone decreased by 0.6% compared to the previous month, when it was -0.5%, and the annual inflation rate remained stable at 2.4%. In the UK, there was a decrease in the annual index from 4.6% to 3.9%, which was noticeably lower than the expected 4.4%, while the monthly index fell to -0.2% after stability in October, contrary to forecasts of 0.1% growth. Core inflation in the country also decreased from 5.7% to 5.1%. Such a significant reduction in inflationary pressure in the UK has raised investors' expectations regarding a possible interest rate cut by the Bank of England in early 2024.
- Resistance levels: 24.20, 24.40, 24.67, 25.00.
- Support levels: 24.00, 23.83, 23.60, 23.32.
Crude Oil market overview
Brent crude oil has successfully recovered its level to 77.61 and is aiming for further growth towards the target of 83.86, due to disruptions in maritime logistics caused by Houthi attacks from Yemen on ships in the Red Sea and the Suez Canal.
On Tuesday, the United States launched Operation Guardian of Prosperity, which also involves the United Kingdom, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway and Spain, which aims to ensure security in the southern Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. Representatives of the Yemeni Ansar Allah movement announced their plans to continue attacks on Israeli targets in the region, which forces major shipping companies to look for alternative routes, resulting in delays in delivery and additional costs, contributing to higher fuel prices and an increase in oil prices to the level of 79.44.
According to S&P Global Commodity Insights, U.S. oil production is aiming for a world record, with a forecast of reaching an average daily volume of 13.3 million barrels in the fourth quarter, an unprecedented level for any country in world history. In combination with this, hydrocarbon reserves are also increasing: as of December 20, reserves increased by 2.909 million barrels per week, exceeding the expected -2.283 million and the previous level of -4.259 million, which has a restraining effect on further growth in oil prices.
- Resistance levels: 77.61, 72.21.
- Support levels: 83.86, 88.37.