EUR/USD: investors expect results on business sentiment in the eurozone
The EUR/USD currency pair is experiencing a correction, being at 1.0902, after moving away from the maximum values on August 11 over the past two days.
Since the beginning of November, the euro has significantly strengthened against the background of positive changes in the economic situation. Data on business activity in key economic sectors of the EU countries is expected to be released today. It is expected that the index of manufacturing activity in France will increase from 42.8 to 43.1, in Germany - from 40.8 to 41.2, which contributes to an increase in the overall indicator for the EU to 43.4 from the previous 43.1. It is also assumed that the services indicator in France will rise from 45.2 to 45.6, in Germany - from 48.2 to 48.5, as a result of which the overall index for the eurozone will reach 48.1 compared to the previous 47.8.
During the day, traders will expect the minutes of the ECB's November monetary policy meeting and a speech by the chairman of the German Federal Bank Joachim Nagel. On Friday, Germany will present GDP data, with forecasts for quarterly adjustments from 0.0% to -0.1% and annual - from -0.2% to -0.3%. Christine Lagarde from the ECB is scheduled to speak tomorrow, where she can give additional information about the future monetary policy of the region.
- Resistance levels: 1.0940, 1.1090.
- Support levels: 1.0840, 1.0730.
USD/TRY: Turkish president announced the strengthening of the Turkish lira
During the Asian trading session, the USD/TRY currency pair shows a slight decline, correcting after the recent sharp growth, and is currently at around 28.8300 ahead of new factors affecting the exchange rate.
Trading activity is reduced due to the withdrawal of some investors from the market in connection with the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States. By the end of the week, the market's attention will be focused on the S&P Global manufacturing activity index for November, which is projected to decrease from 50.0 to 49.8, as well as on the indicator of activity in the service sector, which may change from 50.6 to 50.4. Yesterday's data on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits showed a decrease from 233.0 thousand to 209.0 thousand against the forecast of 225.0 thousand, and the number of repeated applications for the week to November 10 fell from 1.862 million to 1.84 million. Nevertheless, the October volume of orders for durable goods fell by -5.4%, after an increase of 4.6% earlier, which turned out to be worse than the expected decline of -3.1%.
- Resistance levels: 28.9000, 29.0000, 29.1000, 29.2000.
- Support levels: 28.7500, 28.6250, 28.5000, 28.4000.
GBP/USD: the asset has moved away from the September highs and is stabilizing around the 1.2500 level
The GBP/USD currency pair demonstrates unstable trading, being near the 1.2500 level. Yesterday, the pair showed a significant drop, moving away from the peak values on September 6, which was a consequence of the growth of corrective sentiment in the market. Investors have reduced their positions in the US dollar ahead of the Thanksgiving celebration.
Meanwhile, the British pound did not receive support from the results of the hearings on the national budget and revised economic forecasts. UK Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt forecasts the country's economy to grow by 0.6% in 2023 and 0.7% in 2024, in contrast to previous estimates in March, which predicted a 0.2% decline in GDP this year and a 1.8% growth next. GDP growth forecasts for 2025 have been adjusted from 2.5% to 1.4%. It is also planned to reduce the national debt at an average level by 0.7 billion pounds in the coming years. Hunt also noted the reduction of recession risks and the growth of real incomes of the population, and also decided to postpone the increase in excise taxes on alcohol until August 1 to stimulate business.
- Resistance levels: 1.2500, 1.2550, 1.2600, 1.2650.
- Support levels: 1.2450, 1.2400, 1.2350, 1.2300.
Silver price analysis
The trading asset slightly strengthens its position, remaining near the level of 23.60. Trading activity is reduced due to the closure of trading platforms in the United States in connection with Thanksgiving.
Silver is finding support in the market due to expectations of the completion of the current cycle of interest rate increases by the US Federal Reserve. Despite the relatively strong statements and minutes of the Fed suggesting the possibility of another rate hike, the market is already beginning to anticipate the beginning of a period of monetary policy easing. Some analysts suggest that the first rate cut in 2024 may occur as early as the March meeting of the regulator.
- Resistance levels: 23.83, 24.00, 24.20, 24.42.
- Support levels: 23.60, 23.32, 23.00, 22.70.