EUR/USD: the currency pair exceeds the key level of 1.0880–1.0710
During the Asian session, the EUR/USD currency pair continues to fluctuate around the 1.0925 mark, maintaining the likelihood of an uptrend extension against the background of fresh economic data from Europe.
The February consumer price index in Germany confirmed expectations, rising by 0.4%, which contributed to the anticipated correction of the annual index from 2.9% to 2.5%, bringing it closer to the 2% threshold desired by the European Central Bank. Its harmonized analogue grew by 0.6% over the month and by 2.7% over the year, in line with forecasts and previous indicators. It is expected that data on industrial production in the eurozone will be released today at noon GMT, forecasts for which foreshadow a decline in the indicator to -2.8% on an annual basis and to -1.4% for the month, which may have an impact on the euro.
- Resistance levels: 1.0950, 1.1060.
- Support levels: 1.0890, 1.0750.
NZD/USD: sales via e-cards in New Zealand fell by 1.8% in February
The NZD/USD trading instrument makes a correction near the indicator 0.6161 after the publication of negative economic statistics from New Zealand.
Report Stats.nz He pointed to a decrease in retail sales through electronic cards in February by 1.8%, which is equivalent to a decrease of NZ$ 120 million, and in key sectors of the economy by 1.4% or NZ $83 million. The decline was noted in such categories as fuel costs (-3.7%), clothing purchases (-1.5%), purchase of durable goods (-0.9%), consumables (-0.9%) and vehicles (-0.3%). At the same time, the annual sales figure increased by 2.5%. Additional support for the currency pair was provided by data from China, where the consumer goods price index rose by 0.7% year-on-year in February, exceeding analysts' expectations, which assumed an increase of 0.3%.
- Resistance levels: 0.6180, 0.6250.
- Support levels: 0.6130, 0.6050.
Gold market analysis
Gold is near the 2160.0 mark, waiting for new incentives to move. Currently, the correction is taking place against the background of the realization of profits on long positions after the breakout of the resistance level of 2100.0.
The influence of global factors indicates the likelihood of an uptrend continuing. Despite the soft position of the chairman of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, expressed in Congress on interest rates, the rate cut has not yet begun. The forecasting tool of the US Federal Reserve System from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME FedWatch Tool) shows that the probability of maintaining the current rate at the March meeting reaches 99.0%, leaving the dollar without significant support. The situation on the government bond market also has a positive effect on gold prices, where the yield on ten-year bonds fell to 4.148% from 4.283% last week.
- Resistance levels: 2180.0, 2240.0.
- Support levels: 2130.0, 2080.0.
Crude Oil market analytics
WTI Crude Oil quotes are at the level of 77.88, expecting a possible continuation of the downward trend after the US Department of Energy adjusted its forecasts for oil production, anticipating an increase in production by 80.0 thousand barrels per day to 13.19 million barrels per day, which may put pressure on the cost of energy resources. US data also indicate an increase in inflation in February from 0.3% to 0.4%, with the benchmark index at 0.4%, which exceeded analysts' expectations of 0.3%. This could force the US Federal Reserve to postpone an interest rate adjustment, potentially having a negative impact on oil prices.
However, optimism in the market is supported by the monthly OPEC report, which forecasts an increase in oil demand this year by 2.25 million barrels per day and next year by 1.85 million barrels per day. Additional support comes from a reduction in reserves in the United States, according to data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), with a decrease of -5.521 million barrels, exceeding experts' forecasts.
Taking into account these conditions, the current stability of oil prices in the range of 79.62–77.64 is maintained until new factors appear that may make adjustments to the movement of market prices.
- Resistance levels: 77.64, 79.62, 83.50.
- Support levels: 75.60, 72.11, 68.27.