NZD/USD: the growth rate slowed down before the meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand
Since the beginning of April, the NZD/USD currency pair has been trying to adjust within the medium-term downtrend. At the moment, the growth of the currency has slowed down at 0.6042 (Murray level [2/8]), in anticipation of the results of the upcoming meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the upcoming publication of data on March inflation in the United States, scheduled for Wednesday.
The New Zealand central bank is expected to keep its main interest rate at 5.50%, despite a significant deterioration in economic conditions and the onset of recession at the end of last year. The regulator is likely to emphasize that the inflation rate in the country is still too high, and announce plans to begin easing monetary policy no earlier than 2025, contrary to the expectations of investors, some of whom hope for a rate cut in August. Although such news may temporarily support the growth of NZD/USD, a significant increase in the value of the currency is not expected.
- Resistance levels: 0.6042, 0.6073, 0.6103.
- Support levels: 0.6012, 0.5950, 0.5920.
USD/CAD: pressure on the Canadian labor market continues
Against the background of stabilization of the US dollar and disappointing macroeconomic statistics from Canada, the USD/CAD currency pair is at 1.3576.
In March, the Canadian unemployment rate rose from 5.8% to 6.1%, exceeding analysts' expectations, which had predicted an increase to only 5.9%. This change occurred after the total number of employees decreased by 2.2 thousand people, while in the previous month there was an increase of 40.7 thousand with a forecast of 25.9 thousand. In particular, full—time employment decreased by 0.7 thousand, and part-time employment - by 1.6 thousand, with the share of the economically active population unchanged at 65.3%.
In the USA, on the contrary, unemployment decreased from 3.9% to 3.8%, due to an increase in the number of jobs in the non-agricultural sector by 303 thousand compared to 270 thousand in the previous month, and in the private sector by 232 thousand, instead of the expected 207 thousand. This led to an increase in the index of labor market trends from 111.85 to 112.84 points, which should have a positive impact on the value of the US dollar.
- Resistance levels: 1.3600, 1.3720.
- Support levels: 1.3530, 1.3380.
Gold market analysis
The XAU/USD currency pair is showing moderate growth, continuing to develop the active bullish trend observed in recent days, which regularly leads to an update of maximum values: at the moment, the price is testing the level of 2345.00 for a possible upward breakout, in anticipation of new catalysts in the market.
The focus of investors' attention is the upcoming publication of March inflation data in the United States. The annual consumer price index is expected to accelerate from 3.2% to 3.4%, which may put pressure on the US Federal Reserve to abandon its conservative monetary strategy. The monthly index is expected to decrease from 0.4% to 0.3%, and core inflation will also adjust from 0.4% to 0.3% and from 3.8% to 3.7%. On the same day, the minutes of the Fed's March meeting are expected to be released, which will help clarify the regulator's plans for monetary policy. The main expectation of investors remains a possible interest rate cut as early as June, and at least three adjustments before the end of 2024, although the postponement of the beginning of monetary easing to the end of the year is now being actively considered.
- Resistance levels: 2353.79, 2375.00, 2400.00, 2425.00.
- Support levels: 2336.50, 2320.00, 2300.00, 2285.00.
Crude Oil market analysis
Brent Crude Oil prices continue to show potential for growth, remaining at 91.07 amid growing fears that the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas could lead to disruptions in supplies from oil-producing countries in the Middle East.
Earlier, oil prices fell amid reports of a decrease in geopolitical tensions: last weekend, Israel announced plans for a partial withdrawal of troops from the southern Gaza Strip, as well as the resumption of peace talks under the auspices of Egypt, which temporarily led to a decrease in prices from 91.95 to 89.11. However, on Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said about preparations for a possible invasion of Rafah, which inevitably renewed fears in the market and caused an increase in oil prices.
- Resistance levels: 91.95, 93.79, 96.22.
- Support levels: 89.10, 87.60, 85.39.