NZD/USD: the pair checks the 0.6600 level for a possible decline
The NZD/USD pair is showing mixed dynamics, holding near the 0.6000 level and trying to strengthen the "bearish" trend that emerged at the end of last week. At this stage, investors are being cautious, refraining from opening new positions until the publication of US inflation data, which is expected on Wednesday. It is predicted that core inflation for April may show a decrease to 3.6% per annum from the previous 3.8% and to 0.3% monthly from 0.4%. Retail sales statistics will also be released, which is important for assessing domestic consumption, which is a key element of inflation risks. Total sales are expected to fall from 0.7% to 0.4%, while the figure excluding cars will decrease from 1.1% to 0.2%.
Earlier this week, support for the NZD/USD pair came from recently released data. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of New Zealand showed an increase in April, increasing from 46.8 to 48.9 points. Although successive interest rate increases since October 2021 have led to a slowdown in economic activity, price pressures are likely to remain stable due to high levels of migration, which exceeded forecasts by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). Also, data from China released over the weekend showed an acceleration in the consumer price index in April from 0.1% to 0.3% year-on-year and an improvement from -1.0% to 0.1% month-on-month. Although the producer price index remained in negative territory, its decline slowed from -2.8% to -2.5%. Additionally, investors' attention was drawn to a slight decrease in the index of activity in the service sector from Business NZ in April from 47.2 to 47.1 points. RBNZ's inflation expectations for the second quarter were adjusted from 2.5% to 2.33%, which may contribute to RBNZ's softer monetary policy in the near future.
- Resistance levels: 0.6030, 0.6047, 0.6082, 0.6100.
- Support levels: 0.6000, 0.5975, 0.5950, 0.5920.
USD/CAD: the expectation of sideways dynamics in the near future
In the Asian trading session, the USD/CAD pair is actively testing the 1.3680 level, aiming to overcome it upwards. Meanwhile, market activity remains at a moderate level, as participants from the United States expect new catalysts for price changes during the week.
On the other hand, Canadian traders are carefully studying employment data: April figures indicate an increase in the number of employed by 90.4 thousand, which significantly exceeds the previous value of -2.2 thousand and analysts' expectations of 18.0 thousand. The average hourly wage in the country decreased from 5.0% to 4.8%, while the unemployment rate remained at 6.1%, despite forecasts of its increase to 6.2%.
- Resistance levels: 1.3700, 1.3730, 1.3762, 1.3800.
- Support levels: 1.3650, 1.3616, 1.3580, 1.3550.
Gold market analysis
The XAU/USD pair is experiencing a correction, retreating from the peak values on April 22, which were updated last week. Currently, gold is trying to overcome the support level of $ 2350.00 in anticipation of new factors that may affect the price movement.
The gold market continues its upward trend, despite a decrease in net speculative positions, according to the latest report from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Over the past week, the volume of net speculative positions decreased to 199.6 thousand from 204.2 thousand, reflecting a decrease in investor activity in anticipation of new catalysts in the market. The positions of the bulls, backed by real assets, amounted to 189,194 thousand against 26,062 thousand for the bears. Sellers increased their positions by 1,028 thousand, while buyers reduced them by 2,979 thousand amid expectations of new movements in gold.
- Resistance levels: 2378.39, 2400.00, 2431.44, 2450.00.
- Support levels: 2353.79, 2336.50, 2320.00, 2300.00.
Oil market overview
Brent Crude Oil prices are experiencing a correction, holding above the $82.00 mark. The easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East is affecting the situation: Hamas representatives have expressed readiness for a ceasefire, and the Houthis have reduced the number of attacks on ships in the Red Sea.
Meanwhile, Iraqi Oil Minister Hayyan Abdul Ghani announced the country's intention to withdraw from the OPEC+ agreement on production cuts, which caused a violent reaction. However, the next day, his deputy, Basim Mohammed Khudair, clarified that the problem lies in the difficulty of meeting the current limits, which have a negative impact on the Iraqi economy. The question of Iraq's position on the future OPEC+ agreement remains open, but it is already clear that many participants are ready to increase production, which may have an impact on the market.
- Resistance levels: 83.20, 86.10.
- Support levels: 81.50, 78.70.