NZD/USD: the currency pair is waiting for new impulses to move
The NZD/USD currency pair is showing stability near the 0.6170 level, in anticipation of important economic data that will indicate the future direction of movement. Inflation information for February is expected to be published in the United States today at 14:30 GMT. The core consumer price index is projected to slow slightly from 3.9% to 3.7% on an annual basis and from 0.4% to 0.3% on a monthly basis, while the overall index should remain unchanged at 3.1%.
Meanwhile, New Zealand's recent economic indicators do not significantly affect the pair's movement at the moment. February retail sales through e-cards fell by 1.8% after a previous increase of 2.0% (adjusted from 1.7%), although the annual growth rate accelerated from 1.6% to 2.5%. Karen Silk, a representative of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, stressed the consistency of the regulator's messages to the market during recent meetings on raising the cost of borrowed funds. The annual swap rate experienced a correction of almost 50 basis points during this time, reflecting the reaction of traders to changes in economic activity and subsequent data on inflation and the labor market.
- Resistance levels: 0.6183, 0.6200, 0.6217, 0.6250.
- Support levels: 0.6158, 0.6130, 0.6100, 0.6076.
USD/JPY: Japan's economic growth exceeded experts' forecasts
During the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair shows growth, trading at 147.46, correcting after a recent drop to the lowest values since February 2. The yen's position has not improved, even despite the optimistic macroeconomic statistics.
In the fourth quarter, Japan's gross domestic product grew by 0.1%, exceeding analysts' expectations of a 0.1% decline. This provided an annual GDP growth of 0.4%, against an expected decrease of 0.4%. The GDP deflator increased by 3.9%, and capital expenditures showed an increase of 2.0%. The price index for corporate goods rose 0.2% in February, strengthening the annual index by 0.6% compared to February last year.
However, the yen is being held back by the speech of the head of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, who stressed the recovery of the country's economy, despite some signs of deterioration in the situation. Expectations regarding the future monetary policy of the Bank of Japan remain high ahead of the upcoming meeting, where market participants are looking for indications of a possible transition to a stricter policy this month.
- Resistance levels: 148.30, 150.80.
- Support levels: 146.40, 144.10.
Gold market analysis
Gold is losing a little in value, moving away from its recent records reached last week, when the price peaked at 2200.00. Currently, trading is taking place around the level of 2178.00, and the market is in anticipation of new signals.
Investors' main attention is focused on February inflation data from the United States. The core consumer price index is expected to slow down from 3.9% to 3.7% year-on-year, and decrease from 0.4% to 0.3% on a monthly basis. Such a slowdown may reinforce expectations regarding the start of a review of borrowing rates by the Federal Reserve as early as June, which will potentially enhance the attractiveness of gold as an investment asset. On Thursday, data on industrial inflation and unemployment statistics are also expected to be published at 14:30 GMT. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits for the week ending March 8 is projected to increase slightly from 217,000 to 218,000.
- Resistance levels: 2195.12, 2215.00, 2230.00, 2245.00.
- Support levels: 2164.68, 2150.00, 2134.09, 2120.00.
Crude Oil market analysis
During morning trading in Asia, Brent prices showed fluctuations around $82 per barrel, continuing to recover from the recent drop. The market is closely following the American economic reports, waiting for new data.
Amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and concerns about a decline in global oil demand, market sentiment remains mixed. Unresolved conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe are increasing risks in the energy sector.
According to analysts, there is a significant discrepancy in the forecasts of the International Energy Agency and OPEC regarding future oil demand, which creates additional uncertainty in the market. According to Reuters, the difference in estimates between the two organizations has reached a record, highlighting the different views on the long-term prospects of the oil market and the transition to alternative energy sources.
- Resistance levels: 82.00, 82.40, 83.14, 84.00.
- Support levels: 81.00, 80.00, 79.12, 78.00.