Analytical Forex forecast for today, August 25, for USDJPY, NZDUSD, Silver & Brent

USD/JPY, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, Silver, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for today, August 25, for USDJPY, NZDUSD, Silver & Brent

USD/JPY: the "American" is losing ground before Jerome Powell's briefing

The US currency is retreating from the local peak, updated within the current week.

Bidders refrain from new positions on the instrument, waiting for comments from the head of the US financial authorities. So, Jerome Powell will hold a briefing at the opening of the symposium in Jackson Hole, and investors hope to receive new signals on the further actions of the US Federal Reserve in further interest rate increases. At the moment, economists tend to unanimously assess the prospect of revising the key indicator in favor of raising it by 0.50% at the September summit, as well as by 0.75%. Traders also assume that the head of the financial department will assess the further prospects for an increase in the event of an energy crisis on the eve of the heating season.

  • Resistance levels: 137.50, 138.50, 139.50, 140.50.
  • Support levels: 136.50, 135.57, 134.54, 134.00.

NZD/USD: the pair develops a downward trend

Amid the correction of the US dollar, the NZD/USD trading instrument is testing the level of 0.6244.

As follows from the morning report published by Stats NZ (Statistics New Zealand), retail sales for June changed by -2.3%, being dominated by "bears" two quarters to a row, showing a drop of 0.9% earlier. In the present, 2/3 of the retail sales segment industries provided negative indicators. Thus, the demand for motor vehicles and components for them sank by 5.8%, electronic durable goods decreased by 6.1%. The growth leader, as before, remains the companies providing services for the delivery of catering goods, having increased 3.3% over the reporting period. Economists note the persistence of negative inflation pressure on the sphere of household activity, restraining the quotes of the New Zealand dollar to reverse the trend in favor of a systematic strengthening of quotations.

  • Resistance levels: 0.6247, 0.6450.
  • Support levels: 0.6162, 0.6058.

Silver prices

During the Asian trading session, the value of silver is growing moderately, reaching the 19.30 mark.

As follows from the latest report published by the CFTC (US Commodity Futures Trading Commission), the number of pure speculation contracts for the precious metal has strengthened to 3.5 thousand from the previous 2.9 thousand. The balance of supply and demand has undergone minor changes – the "bears" remain the first in open positions backed by cash, and the "bullish" positions are slightly less, amounting to 32,070 thousand to 37,836 thousand. from sellers. The current week shows a reduction in long positions by 0.647 thousand contracts, and the number of short ones decreased by 1,110 thousand contracts.

  • Resistance levels: 19.50, 19.74, 20.00, 20.48.
  • Support levels: 19.00, 18.68, 18.41, 18.00.

Brent overview

overcame the strong resistance mark of 100.00, updating the maximum on August 12, being at the level of 102.0 per barrel against the background of published data in the United States and comments from OPEC+ members on the correction of production levels.

According to API (American Petroleum Institute) statistics, the reserve in storage decreased by 5.632 million barrels, contrary to expectations of 0.450 million barrels and the previous result of 0.448 million barrels. As follows from a similar report from the EIA (Energy Information Agency), the level correction amounted to -3.282 million barrels, contrary to expectations of -0.933 million barrels, but surpassing the correction of the past at -7.056 million barrels. An additional factor supporting the oil price was the comments of OPEC+ representatives, who expressed their readiness to take decisive steps to reduce the production of raw materials if supplies of affordable "black gold" from Iran begin to world markets as part of the agreement between Western countries and official Tehran on the "nuclear deal".

  • Resistance levels: 102.00, 110.00.
  • Support levels: 96.24, 93.55.
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Analytical Forex forecast for USD/CAD, USD/JPY, gold and oil for Tuesday, May 21, 2024
USD/CAD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for USD/CAD, USD/JPY, gold and oil for Tuesday, May 21, 2024 USD/CAD: National Bank of Canada announced an increase in housing affordabilityThe USD/CAD pair is showing moderate growth, moving away from the local lows reached on April 10 and updated at the end of last week. Currently, the instrument is testing the 1.3635 mark for an upward breakdown, while market participants are waiting for new drivers to appear.Inflation data for April will be published in Canada today. According to preliminary forecasts, the annual consumer price index will decrease from 2.9% to 2.7%, continuing to move towards the regulator's target levels of about 2.0%. On a monthly basis, the indicator is expected to decrease from 0.6% to 0.5%.The National Bank of Canada noted an improvement in the real estate market. Mortgage payment as a percentage of income at the median house price in the first quarter of 2024 decreased by 3.1%, reaching 58.9%, which is the best quarterly performance since 2019. The greatest improvements are observed in Toronto, Vancouver and Victoria due to lower prices per square meter of housing, lower mortgage interest rates and an increase in median incomes. Analysts believe that the current monetary policy of the Bank of Canada, aimed at preserving the cost of borrowing, indicates a possible transition to "dovish" rhetoric, which will support demand for housing.Resistance levels: 1.3650, 1.3675, 1.3700, 1.3730.Support levels: 1.3616, 1.3580, 1.3550, 1.3524.USD/JPY: on the eve of the publication of Japanese trading indicatorsDuring the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair shows a short-term uptrend, returning to the highs recorded on May 1, and is trading around the 156.44 mark.After the recent strengthening last week, the yen weakened again due to the intervention of the Bank of Japan: the volume of interventions was less than at the beginning of the month, and over the past four trading sessions, the exchange rate has almost returned to previous levels. Macroeconomic data also failed to support the Japanese currency: in March, the index of business activity in the services sector fell by 2.4%, although analysts expected an increase of 0.1%. Japan's foreign trade data will be published tomorrow at 01:50 (GMT+2): experts expect exports to increase by 11.1% compared to the previous 7.3%, and imports to grow by 9.0% after a decrease of 4.9% earlier, which will lead to an adjustment of the trade balance to -339.5 billion yen after the previous 366.5 billion yen.Resistance levels: 156.90, 158.50.Support levels: 155.90, 153.60.Gold market overviewThe XAU/USD pair is showing a corrective decline, moving away from the record highs reached at 2450.00. During the Asian session, the instrument is testing the 2415.00 mark for a downward breakdown, in anticipation of the emergence of new market drivers. Investors' attention is focused on tomorrow's minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting and April inflation statistics from the UK. The consumer price index is expected to decline from 3.2% to 2.1%, approaching the target levels of the Bank of England. If these forecasts are confirmed, the probability of an interest rate cut by the British regulator in June will increase significantly. In addition, the Bank of Canada will also present inflation data, and analysts predict a decrease from 2.9% to 2.7%, which is still significantly higher than the regulator's target level.The growth in demand for gold is supported by concerns about increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The situation worsened after reports of the death of Iranian President Seyid Ibrahim Raisi in a plane crash, which increased uncertainty over a possible change in the country's foreign policy. Additional support for gold is provided by the recovery of economic activity in China, where the authorities announced new measures to stabilize the affected real estate sector. Recall that China is one of the largest importers of gold, and the People's Bank of China is actively increasing its gold and foreign exchange reserves.Resistance levels: 2431.44, 2450.00, 2470.00, 2500.00.Support levels: 2400.00, 2378.39, 2353.79, 2336.50.Oil market overviewDuring the Asian session, the price of WTI Crude Oil continues to develop the downward momentum that began the day before. Quotes declined from the highs reached on May 1, amid the strengthening of the US dollar. Market participants expect an early interest rate cut from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England in June. It is also assumed that the US Federal Reserve System (FRS) will take measures to ease monetary policy, but analysts do not predict a transition to a softer exchange rate until September.Investors are looking forward to the OPEC+ meeting, which will be held on June 1. Analysts believe that representatives of the cartel will discuss the extension of current restrictions on oil production for the second half of the year, which can support price stability in the face of a weak recovery in global demand. In addition, the oil market is under the influence of political uncertainty in Iran after the deaths of President Syed Ibrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian in a helicopter crash in East Azerbaijan province. Iran is actively increasing its hydrocarbon production, ranking third in terms of volume among OPEC members, and its main buyer is China. Despite the political changes in Iran, experts are confident that this will not lead to significant changes in the oil market. The premium for geopolitical risk is now tending to zero, compared with $12 per barrel in October and $2 in April, when there were mutual attacks between Iran and Israel.Resistance levels: 79.07, 80.00, 81.00, 82.00.Support levels: 78.00, 77.00, 76.00, 75.00.
May 21, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and USD/CHF for Friday, May 17, 2024
AUD/USD, currency, EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and USD/CHF for Friday, May 17, 2024 EUR/USD: experts expect inflation to fall in the eurozone in AprilDuring the Asian trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair rolled back from yesterday's highs reached on March 21, and is now checking the 1.0855 level for the possibility of further decline. At the same time, the market is tensely awaiting updated data on consumer inflation in the eurozone.On Wednesday, data showed that the eurozone economy expanded by 0.3% in the first quarter, and the annual growth rate was adjusted from 0.1% to 0.4%. In April, the consumer price index in Italy rose by 0.1%, which led to a slowdown in annual price growth from 1.2% to 0.8%, the lowest among the major EU countries. Today, at 11:00 GMT+2, the updated consumer price index for the eurozone is expected to be published, which, according to preliminary estimates, will decrease from 0.8% to 0.6% monthly, maintaining the annual level at 2.4%. The base rate is likely to decrease from 1.1% to 0.7% and from 2.9% to 2.7% per annum, approaching the target level of the European Central Bank.Resistance levels: 1.0880, 1.1010.Support levels: 1.0820, 1.0710.GBP/USD: industrial production in the United States has stalled at zero growthThe GBP/USD currency pair continues to move down, strengthening the "bearish" trend that began a day earlier after moving away from local highs on April 10. Corrective movements are exacerbated by technical factors, while the US dollar is under pressure due to recent macroeconomic statistics from the United States.Catherine Mann, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England, is scheduled to speak at 10:00 GMT+2 today, presumably to discuss the latest economic data. Earlier, another representative of the Bank of England, Megan Green, expressed the opinion that before taking measures to reduce the cost of borrowing, it is necessary to wait for more obvious signs of a decrease in inflationary pressure. She noted that the slowdown in consumer price growth is currently associated with continued wage growth. According to the latest data, UK GDP increased by 0.2% year-on-year in the first quarter after declining by 0.2% in the previous period, exceeding analysts' expectations of zero change. Quarterly GDP growth accelerated to 0.6% after a 0.3% decline in the fourth quarter of 2023, surpassing forecasts that were 0.4%. Meanwhile, industrial production fell from 1.0% to 0.5% in March, although experts expected an increase of 0.3%.Resistance levels: 1.2700, 1.2734, 1.2771, 1.2810.Support levels: 1.2650, 1.2600, 1.2568, 1.2539.AUD/USD: technical aspects reinforce the bearish trend at the end of the weekThe AUD/USD currency pair showed a moderate decline, checking the 0.6660 level for the possibility of further decline and continuing to develop the downward trajectory that began the day before after moving away from the highs on January 12. By the end of the week, there is an increase in the "bearish" trend, mainly due to technical factors, while analysts analyze April inflation statistics in the United States and Australian labor market data.The decline in the US core consumer price index from 3.8% to 3.6% year-on-year and from 0.4% to 0.3% for the month is unlikely to have a significant impact on the Federal Reserve's decisions on borrowing costs in the near future, as indicators are still significantly above target levels. It is expected that any decisions will be postponed until the autumn. According to the Australian labor market, 38.5 thousand new jobs were created in April, which significantly exceeds analysts' expectations of 23.7 thousand. Changes in full-time employment showed a decrease of 6.1 thousand, while part-time employment increased by 44.6 thousand. The labor force participation rate adjusted from 66.6% to 66.7%, and the unemployment rate increased from 3.9% to 4.1%, confirming assumptions about a possible easing of monetary policy by the Reserve Bank of Australia, although such changes are unlikely to occur before December.Resistance levels: 0.6700, 0.6750, 0.6802, 0.6850.Support levels: 0.6667, 0.6646, 0.6622, 0.6600.USD/CHF: pressure to lower the exchange rate is expected to increaseIn the context of the strengthening of the US dollar, the USD/CHF currency pair shows corrective movements, being at the level of 0.9069, despite the stable economic indicators of Switzerland.According to information from the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), the country's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by 0.2% in the first quarter, reflecting the slow dynamics in the industrial sector. In April, the producer price index rose by 0.6%, reaching 107.5 points, but the annual figure showed a decline of 1.8%. A report from the International Labour Organization (ILO) indicates that the number of people employed in the first quarter increased by 1.4% compared to last year, while the unemployment rate was 4.3%.Resistance levels: 0.9100, 0.9210.Support levels: 0.9020, 0.8890.
May 17, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, silver and oil for Thursday, May 16, 2024
EUR/USD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Silver, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, silver and oil for Thursday, May 16, 2024 EUR/USD: GDP of Eurozone grew by 0.4% in the first quarterThe EUR/USD currency pair shows a corrective movement, holding at 1.0881, thanks to recently published macroeconomic data.In the first quarter, eurozone GDP grew from -0.1% to 0.3%, in line with forecasts and reaching an annual growth of 0.4% against the previous 0.1%. This trend is supported by an increase in the March industrial production index, which increased by 0.6% month-on-month, exceeding expectations set at 0.5%, and reducing the annual decline from -6.3% to -1.0%. On Friday, the market's attention will be focused on consumer inflation data: it is assumed that in April the consumer price index will maintain the level of 0.6% monthly and 2.4% per annum. The day before, Claes Noth, head of the Dutch Central Bank, expressed the opinion that price pressures in the eurozone are changing, which increases the chances of achieving the inflation target next year. In turn, Pierre Wunsch, the head of the Central Bank of Belgium, indicated that the European Central Bank is considering a two-fold reduction in interest rates.Resistance levels: 1.0920, 1.1010.Support levels: 1.0840, 1.0710.USD/JPY: economic slowdown in Japan continuesThe USD/JPY currency pair continues to follow the downward trend set a day earlier, with quotes near the 153.82 mark and an update of the minimum values since May 6.Analysts attribute the strengthening of the yen to possible currency interventions by the Bank of Japan against the background of weak macroeconomic indicators of the country: GDP for the first quarter decreased by 0.5%, which turned out to be worse than analysts' expectations, which predicted a decrease of 0.3% and stagnation at 0.0%. The annual GDP index fell by 2.0% compared to the previous indicator of 0.0%. The main factor in the deterioration of economic dynamics was the decline in consumer spending, which deepened from -0.4% to -0.7% in the first quarter. Nevertheless, in March, industrial production showed an increase from 3.8% to 4.4% month-on-month and a decrease in the annual decline from -6.7% to -6.2%. A report from the Bank of Japan is expected to be published next week, which will provide additional information on the extent of possible currency interventions.Support levels: 153.00, 150.80.Resistance levels: 154.80, 156.80.Silver market overviewThe price of silver has moved away from the peak values of February 2021, reached at the beginning of the trading session on Thursday, and has now stabilized around the 29.44 mark.Silver quotes received support from the latest US inflation data for April, which met analysts' expectations and increased the likelihood of an early rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. The annual consumer price index decreased from 3.5% to 3.4%, remaining above the target level of 2.0%. The monthly rate slowed from 0.4% to 0.3%. Excluding food and energy resources, the base index also decreased from 3.8% to 3.6% per annum and from 0.4% to 0.3% monthly. In addition, the market noted an additional decrease in the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in May from -14.3 to -15.6 points, while forecasts were -10.0 points. US retail sales stagnated in April after rising 0.6% in the previous month, although an increase of 0.4% was expected.Resistance levels: 29.84, 30.15, 30.50, 30.75.Support levels: 29.35, 29.00, 28.80, 28.52.Oil market overviewLast week, WTI crude oil prices tested the level of 77.75 and ended the day above this mark yesterday, supported by a reduction in hydrocarbon reserves and a slowdown in inflation in the United States.According to a report by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy (EIA), over the week, the volume of strategic oil reserves in the United States decreased by 2.508 million barrels, which significantly exceeded analysts' expectations of a decrease of 0.400 million barrels, and previous data showed a decrease of 1.362 million barrels, which contributed to the growth of quotations. Oil prices are also supported by the weakening of the US dollar, due to a decrease in inflationary pressure: in April, the consumer price index fell from 0.4% to 0.3%, falling below the expected level of 0.4%, and the base index was 0.3% instead of the expected 0.4%. If the inflation rate continues to slow down, the officials of the Federal Reserve System may take a softer position, which will entail pressure on the national currency and further strengthen energy prices.Resistance levels: 81.93, 84.53, 87.47.Support levels: 77.75, 75.60, 72.11.
May 16, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF and GBP/USD for Wednesday, May 15, 2024
EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF and GBP/USD for Wednesday, May 15, 2024 EUR/USD: euro has reached new local highsThe EUR/USD pair is showing slight growth, developing a bullish momentum in the short and medium term, updating the local highs reached on April 10. At the moment, the instrument is testing the 1.0820 level, while investors are waiting for the publication of today's macroeconomic data.Yesterday, inflation data for April were published in Germany: the consumer price index rose from 0.4% to 0.5% on a monthly basis and remained at 2.2% on an annual basis, while the harmonized index amounted to 0.6% on a monthly basis and increased from 2.3% to 2.4% on an annual basis. Statistics on economic sentiment from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) supported the euro: the index for the eurozone rose from 43.9 points to 47.0 points, exceeding forecasts at 46.1 points, and the indicator for Germany rose from 42.9 points to 47.1 points with expectations of 44.9 points. The index of current business conditions in Germany also showed positive dynamics, rising from -79.2 points to -72.3 points. In general, the level of business sentiment has reached a two-year high, which allows experts to hope for an acceleration in the pace of economic recovery in the region.Resistance levels: 1.0820, 1.0842, 1.0863, 1.0900.Support levels: 1.0800, 1.0765, 1.0730, 1.0700.USD/JPY: IMF recommended the Bank of Japan to continue adjusting ratesThe US currency is losing ground in the USD/JPY pair during the Asian session, correcting after recent growth, which led to an update of local highs from May 1. Investors have reduced their long positions to hedge risks ahead of the publication of US inflation data today at 14:30 (GMT+2).The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recommended that the Bank of Japan continue to gradually tighten monetary policy and adjust interest rates. The IMF stressed that the purchase of government bonds can help mitigate sharp changes in yields that could undermine macro-financial stability during this important transition period. In addition, the fund's experts left forecasts for Japan's real gross domestic product (GDP) at 0.9% in 2024 and 1.0% in 2025. They also expect consumption to recover in the second half of 2024 and 2025, thanks to the agreed wage increases achieved in March.On Thursday at 01:50 (GMT+2), Japan's GDP data for the first quarter will be published, with an expected decrease from 0.1% to -0.3% on a quarterly basis and from 0.4% to -1.5% on an annual basis. It is also expected that the March statistics on industrial production will show an increase from -0.6% to 3.8%.Resistance levels: 156.50, 157.00, 157.50, 157.98.Support levels: 156.00, 155.50, 155.00, 154.50.USD/CHF: consolidation before the release of US inflation dataThe US dollar is holding near the 0.9056 level during the Asian session, developing a "bearish" trend that began the day before. The USD/CHF pair is trying to break through the 0.9050 mark downwards, in anticipation of the publication of important macroeconomic statistics from the United States on inflation. This indicator reflects changes in the level of retail prices for a certain set of goods and services, including food, transportation, utilities and healthcare, and has a significant impact on the Fed's monetary policy decisions.Current forecasts suggest a slowdown in the annual consumer price index from 3.5% to 3.4% by the end of April, while monthly growth will remain at 0.4%. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, is likely to decrease from 3.8% to 3.6% in annual terms and from 0.4% to 0.3% on a monthly basis over the same period. Retail sales data for April will be published at 14:30 (GMT+2), and analysts expect a decrease from 0.7% to 0.4%, while sales excluding the automotive market may fall from 1.1% to 0.2%. Against the background of these expectations, American investors have already estimated the data on the producer price index for April, which showed an increase of 0.5% after the previous decrease of -0.1%, which exceeded the forecast of 0.3%, and in annual terms the indicator increased from 1.8% to 2.2%.Resistance levels: 0.9071, 0.9100, 0.9130, 0.9150.Support levels: 0.9037, 0.9000, 0.8964, 0.8935.GBP/USD: labor market strengthened the pound's positionThe British currency shows multidirectional dynamics, remaining near the 1.2600 mark and local highs reached on May 3. Yesterday, the pair showed significant growth, despite the predominance of "bears" for a long time.The British currency received support due to strong statistics on the labor market. The unemployment rate increased from 4.2% to 4.3%, and employment decreased by 177.0 thousand people, which is better than preliminary forecasts of -215.0 thousand. However, the average wage growth, taking into account bonuses, remained at 5.7% instead of the expected 5.3%, and excluding bonuses amounted to 6.0%. In the first quarter of this year, there was also an improvement in labor productivity: a decrease of -0.3% compared to -0.9% in the previous period. Thus, the employment sector is showing signs of slowing down, which may give the Bank of England grounds for a gradual easing of monetary policy. However, there remain risks of rising consumer prices due to wage adjustments.Support levels: 1.2550, 1.2430.Resistance levels: 1.2630, 1.2760.
May 15, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, AUD/USD, cryptocurrencies and oil for Tuesday, May 14
AUD/USD, currency, EUR/USD, currency, Ethereum/USD, cryptocurrency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, AUD/USD, cryptocurrencies and oil for Tuesday, May 14 EUR/USD: Germany's April CPI is in line with analytical forecastsDuring the morning trading session in Asia, the EUR/USD pair showed fluctuating movements, remaining near the 1.0785 level. Investors remain cautious, refraining from active trading until the publication of important economic data from the United States and the eurozone.In April, German inflation was in line with expectations, noting an increase of 0.5% and confirming an annual rate of 2.2%, which is consistent with economists' forecasts. The harmonized consumer price index, adapted to EU standards, showed an acceleration from 2.3% to 2.4%. According to preliminary estimates, the Spanish consumer price index may increase from 3.2% to 3.3%. Important data on eurozone GDP for the first quarter are expected on Wednesday at 11:00 (GMT+2), forecasts indicate stability of the indicator at the level of 0.3% quarterly and 0.4% annual growth. The market's attention will also be focused on the indicators of industrial production, which, according to forecasts, may show a decrease of 0.2% in monthly dynamics after the previous growth of 0.8%, and an improvement in the annual index from -6.4% to -1.8%.Resistance levels: 1.0810, 1.0890.Support levels: 1.0760, 1.0660.AUD/USD: Australian authorities predict a decrease in inflation by the yearThe AUD/USD pair is slightly losing ground, stabilizing near the 0.6600 level. Amid the lack of significant news, the market is in a state of expectation, where investors are weighing their steps ahead of key events, especially in the United States, where inflation data for April is expected to be published tomorrow.In Australia, data on the state of the labor market for April will be announced on May 16: analysts predict an increase in employment by 23.7 thousand people, after a decrease of 6.6 thousand in the previous month. At the same time, it is assumed that unemployment will increase from 3.8% to 3.9%. The presentation of the budget plan is also in the focus of investors' attention today. According to recent forecasts, inflation should fall to 3.75% by mid-2024 and to 2.75% by mid-2025, re-entering the Reserve Bank of Australia's target range. However, the authorities said last Sunday that it is expected that the overall inflation rate could reach 2.0-3.0% by the end of this year, while representatives of the RBA believe that the indicator may remain at 3.6% in the first quarter and rise to 3.8% by June. Finance Minister Jim Chalmers stressed that the budget will pay special attention to measures to counter price pressures that have a significant impact on the cost of living of the population.Resistance levels: 0.6622, 0.6646, 0.6667, 0.6700.Support levels: 0.6600, 0.6578, 0.6558, 0.6540.Cryptocurrency market overviewLast week, the ETH/USD rate continued to decline, following the general trend of the market, under the influence of both monetary and regulatory factors that put pressure on other key assets. Investors are expressing concern about the possible continuation of high rates by the US Federal Reserve System until the end of the year, despite the slowdown in the labor market. US inflation data for April, which will be published on Wednesday, is expected to show a decrease in the index, but this is unlikely to change the strict position of the regulator.ETH is also under additional pressure from the uncertainty surrounding future decisions by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Soon, on May 23 and 24, the deadline for reviewing applications from VanEck and ARK Invest for the creation of spot funds based on ETH expires, but forecasts regarding a positive result are disappointing. Unlike previous cases of approval of bitcoin ETFs, there is no information about consultations between the regulator and representatives of interested companies, which may lead to a possible postponement or refusal to consider applications for ETH ETFs until the autumn. In addition, there are signs that the American authorities have begun to consider ETH as an unregistered security and are collecting information about the activities of its developers. In this context, the co-founder of Ethereum, Joseph Lubin, pointed out that the SEC had actually reclassified ETH as an illegal asset without notifying the public.Resistance levels: 3125.00, 3281.25, 3437.50.Support levels: 2812.50, 2500.00, 2187.50.Oil market analysisDuring the Asian trading session, WTI Crude Oil prices show mixed changes. Some support for prices is provided by the anticipation of the publication of the OPEC report, scheduled for today at 13:00 GMT+2. At the same time, many investors refrain from opening new positions, preferring to wait for the US inflation data, which are expected tomorrow at 14:30 at the same time.In the context of the expected OPEC report, market participants hope to find out updated forecasts for oil production volumes. For example, since the beginning of the year, several countries, including Russia and Saudi Arabia, have initiated voluntary production cuts totaling 2.2 million barrels per day in order to maintain market stability. Iraqi Deputy Oil Minister Basim Mohammed Khudair expressed Iraq's commitment to the OPEC+ agreement, but pointed out difficulties with its implementation, doubting the possibility of extending current production restrictions. Traders also expect information about the situation in the Middle East, which could lead to significant supply disruptions if the conflict worsens. The upcoming OPEC meeting is scheduled for June 1, and according to analysts, there are no changes in production plans. The International Energy Agency predicts that oil demand in 2024 will reach a record of more than 103 million barrels per day.Resistance levels: 79.07, 80.00, 81.00, 82.00.Support levels: 78.00, 77.00, 76.00, 75.00.
May 14, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for NZD/USD, USD/CAD, Gold and Oil for Monday, May 13, 2024
USD/CAD, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for NZD/USD, USD/CAD, Gold and Oil for Monday, May 13, 2024 NZD/USD: the pair checks the 0.6600 level for a possible declineThe NZD/USD pair is showing mixed dynamics, holding near the 0.6000 level and trying to strengthen the "bearish" trend that emerged at the end of last week. At this stage, investors are being cautious, refraining from opening new positions until the publication of US inflation data, which is expected on Wednesday. It is predicted that core inflation for April may show a decrease to 3.6% per annum from the previous 3.8% and to 0.3% monthly from 0.4%. Retail sales statistics will also be released, which is important for assessing domestic consumption, which is a key element of inflation risks. Total sales are expected to fall from 0.7% to 0.4%, while the figure excluding cars will decrease from 1.1% to 0.2%.Earlier this week, support for the NZD/USD pair came from recently released data. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of New Zealand showed an increase in April, increasing from 46.8 to 48.9 points. Although successive interest rate increases since October 2021 have led to a slowdown in economic activity, price pressures are likely to remain stable due to high levels of migration, which exceeded forecasts by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). Also, data from China released over the weekend showed an acceleration in the consumer price index in April from 0.1% to 0.3% year-on-year and an improvement from -1.0% to 0.1% month-on-month. Although the producer price index remained in negative territory, its decline slowed from -2.8% to -2.5%. Additionally, investors' attention was drawn to a slight decrease in the index of activity in the service sector from Business NZ in April from 47.2 to 47.1 points. RBNZ's inflation expectations for the second quarter were adjusted from 2.5% to 2.33%, which may contribute to RBNZ's softer monetary policy in the near future.Resistance levels: 0.6030, 0.6047, 0.6082, 0.6100.Support levels: 0.6000, 0.5975, 0.5950, 0.5920.USD/CAD: the expectation of sideways dynamics in the near futureIn the Asian trading session, the USD/CAD pair is actively testing the 1.3680 level, aiming to overcome it upwards. Meanwhile, market activity remains at a moderate level, as participants from the United States expect new catalysts for price changes during the week.On the other hand, Canadian traders are carefully studying employment data: April figures indicate an increase in the number of employed by 90.4 thousand, which significantly exceeds the previous value of -2.2 thousand and analysts' expectations of 18.0 thousand. The average hourly wage in the country decreased from 5.0% to 4.8%, while the unemployment rate remained at 6.1%, despite forecasts of its increase to 6.2%.Resistance levels: 1.3700, 1.3730, 1.3762, 1.3800.Support levels: 1.3650, 1.3616, 1.3580, 1.3550.Gold market analysisThe XAU/USD pair is experiencing a correction, retreating from the peak values on April 22, which were updated last week. Currently, gold is trying to overcome the support level of $ 2350.00 in anticipation of new factors that may affect the price movement.The gold market continues its upward trend, despite a decrease in net speculative positions, according to the latest report from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Over the past week, the volume of net speculative positions decreased to 199.6 thousand from 204.2 thousand, reflecting a decrease in investor activity in anticipation of new catalysts in the market. The positions of the bulls, backed by real assets, amounted to 189,194 thousand against 26,062 thousand for the bears. Sellers increased their positions by 1,028 thousand, while buyers reduced them by 2,979 thousand amid expectations of new movements in gold.Resistance levels: 2378.39, 2400.00, 2431.44, 2450.00.Support levels: 2353.79, 2336.50, 2320.00, 2300.00.Oil market overviewBrent Crude Oil prices are experiencing a correction, holding above the $82.00 mark. The easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East is affecting the situation: Hamas representatives have expressed readiness for a ceasefire, and the Houthis have reduced the number of attacks on ships in the Red Sea.Meanwhile, Iraqi Oil Minister Hayyan Abdul Ghani announced the country's intention to withdraw from the OPEC+ agreement on production cuts, which caused a violent reaction. However, the next day, his deputy, Basim Mohammed Khudair, clarified that the problem lies in the difficulty of meeting the current limits, which have a negative impact on the Iraqi economy. The question of Iraq's position on the future OPEC+ agreement remains open, but it is already clear that many participants are ready to increase production, which may have an impact on the market.Resistance levels: 83.20, 86.10.Support levels: 81.50, 78.70.
May 13, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and oil on Wednesday, May 8
EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and oil on Wednesday, May 8 EUR/USD: euro continues the bearish trend started earlierThe EUR/USD pair is showing a moderate decline, continuing the weak "bearish" trend laid down a day earlier: the exchange rate is experiencing the level of 1.0740 on a downward breakdown, while the market is waiting for new catalysts to change quotes.Traders are analyzing data on industrial production in Germany for March: the index fell by 0.4% month-on-month after rising by 1.7% a month earlier, while forecasts were at the level of -0.6%. The annual decline slowed from -5.3% to -3.3%. In addition, yesterday's data showed a decrease in production orders by 0.4% month-on-month and 1.9% year-on-year after a decrease of -0.8% and -8.8%, respectively. This confirms that the German economic recovery is slower than expected. However, exports increased by 0.9% in March after a decrease of -1.6% a month earlier, exceeding the forecast of 0.4%, and imports slowed from 3.0% to 0.3% against the expected -1.0%, which led to a trade surplus of 22.3 billion euros. The euro received additional support from retail sales statistics in the eurozone, which improved by 0.8% month-on-month and 0.7% year-on-year in March, significantly exceeding previous figures of -0.3% and -0.5%, respectively.Resistance levels: 1.0765, 1.0800, 1.0820, 1.0842.Support levels: 1.0730, 1.0700, 1.0660, 1.0630.GBP/USD: British construction sector is showing a noticeable recovery in business activityThe GBP/USD pair is checking the 1.2480 level for the possibility of a downward breakout, reinforcing the "bearish" trend set a day earlier, against the background of the lack of supportive macroeconomic data from the United States and Great Britain.The pound's rise was partly due to improved performance in the UK construction sector, where the business activity index for April showed an increase from 50.2 to 53.0 points, exceeding the forecast of 50.4 points. The Halifax house price index rose 0.1% after falling 0.9% a month earlier, which was below analysts' expectations of 0.2%. The housing market is approaching stabilization in anticipation of a possible reduction in interest rates, which may support the construction industry. Meanwhile, data from the British Consortium of Retailers (BRC) for April showed a decrease in retail sales by 4.4% against the forecast 1.6%, reflecting household caution in spending, which may restrain economic growth.At the upcoming meeting of the Bank of England on Thursday, monetary policy is expected to remain unchanged, with the interest rate at 5.25%. Perhaps the accompanying statement from the regulator will provide an assessment of the current state and prospects of the British economy, as well as hints on possible future actions.Resistance levels: 1.2500, 1.2539, 1.2573, 1.2600.Support levels: 1.2450, 1.2400, 1.2350, 1.2300.USD/JPY: the currency pair is forming a new uptrendThe USD/JPY pair is holding in a horizontal trend at 155.14, where the US dollar continues to gain strength, which began at the beginning of the week, while the yen retreats, having lost some of its positions.Apparently, the Bank of Japan carried out a currency intervention estimated by experts at about $ 60 billion, although there was no official confirmation of such actions. Effective prevention of further weakening of the yen requires active market interventions, given the weakness of domestic economic indicators and the significant interest rate gap between Japanese and American regulators exceeding 5%. In April, the index of business activity in the Japanese services sector reached 54.3 points, which is worse than analysts' expectations of 54.6 points, but better than the previous indicator of 54.1 points, but this was not enough to support the yen last week.Resistance levels: 156.00, 158.30.Support levels: 154.30, 151.80.Crude Oil market overviewThe prices of American WTI oil are under pressure, testing the level of 77.70 for a possible break down. Investors are focusing on the balance between the supply and demand of hydrocarbons, as well as the geopolitical situation.Earlier, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that an increase in production volumes within OPEC+ is not currently being considered, but circumstances may change due to external factors. While the situation in the Middle East continues to be tense, it is believed that it may return to normal after the end of Israeli military operations in Rafah.In addition, recent data on the dynamics of oil reserves in the United States provided support for oil prices. A report from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed a decrease in reserves by 1.43 million barrels after a previous increase of 4.906 million barrels. It is expected that today at 16:30 GMT+2 the Energy Information Administration (EIA) The United States will publish its final statistics, analysts predict a decrease in inventories by 1.430 million barrels after a correction of 7.265 million barrels in the previous period.Resistance levels: 79.07, 80.00, 81.00, 82.00.Support levels: 78.00, 77.00, 76.00, 75.00.
May 08, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for NZD/USD, USD/JPY, Gold and Oil for Tuesday, May 7
USD/JPY, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for NZD/USD, USD/JPY, Gold and Oil for Tuesday, May 7 NZD/USD: the currency pair is stable at April peaksThe NZD/USD pair is holding near the 0.6010 level and local highs reached on April 10 and updated last week. The weakening of the US dollar on Friday was caused by data on the labor market, which increased pressure on the US Federal Reserve System on the issue of possible rate cuts in the foreseeable future.In particular, the creation of new jobs in the United States outside the agricultural sector amounted to only 175,000, which is significantly lower than the expected 243,000 and the previous value of 315,000. The growth of the average hourly wage slowed from 0.3% to 0.2% per month and from 4.1% to 3.9% per annum. The unemployment rate increased from 3.8% to 3.9%. A sharp decrease in the ISM business activity index in the service sector attracted special attention from investors — from 51.4 to 49.4 points, with a forecast of 52.0 points. These results reinforced expectations of an imminent Fed rate cut, which, according to analysts, will amount to 50 basis points and will be implemented twice this year. Earlier, Michelle Bowman, a member of the Fed's board, said that inflation is likely to continue to decline despite maintaining current rates, and confirmed her readiness to tighten monetary policy if consumer prices remain above 2.0% or continue to rise.The day before, data on the index of business activity in the Chinese services sector were also published: the index slightly decreased from 52.7 to 52.5 points, which continues to be considered a positive signal. In New Zealand, the ANZ commodity price index, an early indicator of export price inflation, was presented, which showed an increase of 0.5% after a decrease of 1.3% in the previous month.Resistance levels: 0.6030, 0.6047, 0.6082, 0.6100.Support levels: 0.6000, 0.5975, 0.5950, 0.5920.USD/JPY: April business activity in the Japanese services sector showed a declineThe USD/JPY pair is experiencing moderate growth, continuing yesterday's uptrend: the currency instrument is trying to overcome the level of 154.50. Analysts are now actively looking for new catalysts for currency movement and analyzing the factors of the unexpected strengthening of the yen last week. Most experts assume that the Bank of Japan could have conducted currency interventions, clearly warning about the risks of speculative operations and pointing to the influence of traders on the weakening of the national currency. Despite the lack of official confirmation from the regulator, the market analyzes only indirect signs. Experts estimate that funds worth about $ 59 billion could be used to support the yen exchange rate, and in the near future the regulator may seek to keep the US dollar exchange rate in the range of 150.00–155.00.Today's weakening of the yen is supported by macroeconomic statistics from Japan: the April index of business activity in the services sector, provided by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, which tracks the cost of services purchased by companies in the main service sectors (excluding manufacturing) and serves as a harbinger of the Tankan index, fell from 54.6 to 54.3 points, despite neutral expectations.Resistance levels: 154.50, 155.00, 155.50, 156.00.Support levels: 154.00, 153.50, 153.00, 152.50.Gold market overviewGold trading shows mixed dynamics, maintaining around the level of 2320.00. Investors are waiting for new growth incentives, while gold is undergoing a minor technical correction and updating the minimum values since April 5 last week.Gold is supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Attempts to negotiate a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas appear to have failed, leading to extensive new Israeli military operations in Rafah. Demand for the precious metal is also increasing in anticipation of a possible rate cut by the world's largest central banks. Among the contenders for the first reduction is the European Central Bank, from which markets expect changes in monetary policy at the upcoming June meeting.Resistance levels: 2336.50, 2353.79, 2375.00, 2400.00.Support levels: 2320.00, 2300.00, 2285.00, 2265.52.Oil market overviewPrices for the Brent Crude Oil brand are experiencing an upward correction, exceeding $ 83.00 per barrel amid the lack of significant positive economic data.Investors' attention was attracted by an announcement from representatives of Shell Plc., a major global producer of hydrocarbons, about its intention to completely exit the South African market after more than a century of presence. According to a press release published on the Johannesburg stock Exchange, the company plans to reorganize its refining portfolio and sell its stake in Shell Downstream SA. It also became known that 700 filling stations under the management of the corporation will be sold, which will be the final stage after the closure of the last processing plant in 2022.According to Reuters, OPEC+ countries may decide to extend the current production reduction agreement for another three months. The next meeting of the cartel is scheduled for June 1. At the moment, oil prices are close to last year's levels, and despite an increase in production in the United States, Canada, Brazil and Guyana, which compensates for OPEC+ measures, the cartel countries will continue to reduce production until global demand fully recovers.Resistance levels: 84.60, 87.90.Support levels: 82.50, 79.40.
May 07, 2024 Read
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