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Analytical Forex forecast for today, August 25, for USDJPY, NZDUSD, Silver & Brent

USD/JPY, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, Silver, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for today, August 25, for USDJPY, NZDUSD, Silver & Brent

USD/JPY: the "American" is losing ground before Jerome Powell's briefing

The US currency is retreating from the local peak, updated within the current week.

Bidders refrain from new positions on the instrument, waiting for comments from the head of the US financial authorities. So, Jerome Powell will hold a briefing at the opening of the symposium in Jackson Hole, and investors hope to receive new signals on the further actions of the US Federal Reserve in further interest rate increases. At the moment, economists tend to unanimously assess the prospect of revising the key indicator in favor of raising it by 0.50% at the September summit, as well as by 0.75%. Traders also assume that the head of the financial department will assess the further prospects for an increase in the event of an energy crisis on the eve of the heating season.

  • Resistance levels: 137.50, 138.50, 139.50, 140.50.
  • Support levels: 136.50, 135.57, 134.54, 134.00.

NZD/USD: the pair develops a downward trend

Amid the correction of the US dollar, the NZD/USD trading instrument is testing the level of 0.6244.

As follows from the morning report published by Stats NZ (Statistics New Zealand), retail sales for June changed by -2.3%, being dominated by "bears" two quarters to a row, showing a drop of 0.9% earlier. In the present, 2/3 of the retail sales segment industries provided negative indicators. Thus, the demand for motor vehicles and components for them sank by 5.8%, electronic durable goods decreased by 6.1%. The growth leader, as before, remains the companies providing services for the delivery of catering goods, having increased 3.3% over the reporting period. Economists note the persistence of negative inflation pressure on the sphere of household activity, restraining the quotes of the New Zealand dollar to reverse the trend in favor of a systematic strengthening of quotations.

  • Resistance levels: 0.6247, 0.6450.
  • Support levels: 0.6162, 0.6058.

Silver prices

During the Asian trading session, the value of silver is growing moderately, reaching the 19.30 mark.

As follows from the latest report published by the CFTC (US Commodity Futures Trading Commission), the number of pure speculation contracts for the precious metal has strengthened to 3.5 thousand from the previous 2.9 thousand. The balance of supply and demand has undergone minor changes – the "bears" remain the first in open positions backed by cash, and the "bullish" positions are slightly less, amounting to 32,070 thousand to 37,836 thousand. from sellers. The current week shows a reduction in long positions by 0.647 thousand contracts, and the number of short ones decreased by 1,110 thousand contracts.

  • Resistance levels: 19.50, 19.74, 20.00, 20.48.
  • Support levels: 19.00, 18.68, 18.41, 18.00.

Brent overview

overcame the strong resistance mark of 100.00, updating the maximum on August 12, being at the level of 102.0 per barrel against the background of published data in the United States and comments from OPEC+ members on the correction of production levels.

According to API (American Petroleum Institute) statistics, the reserve in storage decreased by 5.632 million barrels, contrary to expectations of 0.450 million barrels and the previous result of 0.448 million barrels. As follows from a similar report from the EIA (Energy Information Agency), the level correction amounted to -3.282 million barrels, contrary to expectations of -0.933 million barrels, but surpassing the correction of the past at -7.056 million barrels. An additional factor supporting the oil price was the comments of OPEC+ representatives, who expressed their readiness to take decisive steps to reduce the production of raw materials if supplies of affordable "black gold" from Iran begin to world markets as part of the agreement between Western countries and official Tehran on the "nuclear deal".

  • Resistance levels: 102.00, 110.00.
  • Support levels: 96.24, 93.55.
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Analytical Forex Forecast for USD/JPY, USD/TRY, Silver and Crude Oil for Thursday, September 28
USD/JPY, currency, USD/TRY, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Silver, mineral, Analytical Forex Forecast for USD/JPY, USD/TRY, Silver and Crude Oil for Thursday, September 28 USD/JPY: dollar is preparing to test the psychological levelThe USD/JPY currency pair is developing a moderate "bearish" vector of value, within the framework of the correction phase after a significant rise recorded last Friday. On the previous day, the currency instrument reached the highest level since October 20, 2022, approaching the key psychological threshold of 150.00. Traders continue to be anxious about the Bank of Japan's potential intervention in the yen's fluctuations, as it did in the previous year. Bank of Japan officials are currently taking a wait-and-see stance, however, recent statements from the head of this financial institution, Kazuo Ueda, have been entirely focused on discussing the inflationary situation.Today's easing of US Dollar-related tensions is partly due to anticipation of upcoming speeches by senior US Federal Reserve officials, including Chairman Jerome Powell. FX market participants are expecting to hear additional indications of possible interest rate hikes in the coming months. This expectation is based on recent remarks by Neel Kashkari, Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, who has already energized the bull market with his previous comments. There is also growing concern among market participants about the situation regarding the U.S. budget passage for the next fiscal year. Just as many issues still cannot be agreed upon, the Senate has been asked to approve a temporary funding bill to avoid a federal government shutdown starting October 1.Resistance levels: 149.69, 150.00, 150.50, 151.00.Support levels: 149.00, 148.47, 148.00, 147.36.USD/TRY: lira's decline continuesDuring the Asian trading session, the USD/TRY currency pair shows moderate strengthening, approaching 27.3525. On the previous day, the pair reached an all-time high near 27.8100, thanks to the strengthening of the dollar.The Turkish lira is under pressure due to domestic economic factors. Despite decisive measures of the Turkish Central Bank to tighten monetary policy, the lira failed to strengthen its position. Inflationary concerns continue to rise even though the regulator has raised the key rate four times since June, totaling 21.5%. In August, the inflation rate settled at 9.09% month-on-month and 58.94% year-on-year. According to officials, high domestic demand, changes in wage levels, exchange rates, and the rising cost of energy resources and services are contributing to the rise in inflation. In light of this, the USD/TRY currency pair has added 2.6% over the past month, and is up about 48.0% year-to-date. Turkey's central bank aims to reduce inflation to 5.0% by 2024.Resistance levels: 27.5000, 27.7500, 28.0000, 28.2500.Support levels: 27.2166, 27.0000, 26.7500, 26.5000.Silver Price AnalysisAlong with the strengthening economic situation in the USA, which exceeded the initial forecasts, the precious metals market is facing sales. The reason for this is investors' preference in favor of the dollar, given the current policy of high interest rates of the US Federal Reserve and their probable further retention at high levels. The XAG/USD pair is now at 22.57.Last week, the Federal Reserve did not change the level of interest rates, leaving them at 5.50%. There were also signals about the possibility of one more rate hike in the current cycle before the monetary policy review begins. This caused the dollar to strengthen against other currencies, which in turn sent silver down 2.50%. However, Chinese investors actively buying gold may give a boost to the value of other precious metals. At the moment, the precious metals market in China is showing record highs of over $100.0 per ounce compared to the ten-year average of $6.0.Resistance levels: 23.60, 24.35, 25.20.Support levels: 22.64, 22.18, 20.95.Crude Oil Market AnalysisBrent Crude Oil prices surpassed the 96.00 threshold and are moving towards 100.00 after the Cushing inventory level fell to an alarming low, highlighting the global decline in fuel supply.Data on hydrocarbon reserves in the United States, published yesterday, showed that over the last week their volume decreased by 2.170 million barrels, which was below expectations, which suggested a decrease of 1.320 million. At the same time, the indicator for Cushing, a key hub of oil supplies in the United States, decreased by 0.943 million, reaching the lowest values since the summer of 2022. Experts agree that this trend is a result of Saudi Arabia and Russia's actions under OPEC+, which impose restrictions on production, causing a shortage. Due to rising demand, many nations are actively using their oil reserves to avoid a sharp price spike. Since the summer months, the cost of Brent Crude Oil has risen approximately 28% and continues its climb.OPEC's outlook also plays in favor of rising oil prices: the organization is forecasting an oil deficit of 3.0 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. Given the stable demand in China and the US, experts assume that prices may overcome the psychological boundary of 100.00.Resistance levels: 95.60, 100.10, 104.50.Support levels: 92.05, 87.64, 82.50.
Sep 28, 2023 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for USD/CHF, AUD/USD, Gold and Crude oil for Tuesday, September 26
AUD/USD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for USD/CHF, AUD/USD, Gold and Crude oil for Tuesday, September 26 AUD/USD: short-term outlook provides for mixed dynamicsThe AUD/USD pair is demonstrating a minor downward correction, showing mixed movement in the short-term horizon, being around the level of 0.6420. At the beginning of the week, the pressure on the instrument remains, although the economic context from the US looks neutral.Meanwhile, the Australian currency gained support after Friday's business activity data from Australia: the services index from Commonwealth Bank rose from 47.8 to 50.5 points in September, while the manufacturing index from S&P Global fell from 49.6 to 48.2 points. The composite business activity index from Commonwealth Bank rose from 48.0 to 50.2 points. Investors' attention was drawn to the quarterly report from the Australian Financial Regulatory Council (CFR). It noted that with a strong slowdown in China's economy, there could be implications for trade between the countries and interest in risky assets, but for the moment the outlook looks stable, even given the marked increase in interest rates.Resistance levels: 0.6425, 0.6450, 0.6472, 0.6500.Support levels: 0.6400, 0.6379, 0.6356, 0.6325.USD/CHF: US dollar updated the May high in assetsThe USD/CHF pair is showing moderate strengthening, developing a strong bullish vector for the short-term horizon and reaching the late May peaks. The currency instrument is approaching the level of 0.9120, trying to overcome it, while the market is actively searching for new stimuli for the movement.The market continues to adapt to the rate decisions made by leading banks last week. In particular, the Swiss National Bank, like the Bank of England, kept the rate at 1.75%, contrary to experts' expectations of a possible increase by 25 basis points. In the attached commentary, the bank's executives expressed hope for the continuation of global economic growth, which, in their opinion, stimulates GDP growth. However, they also emphasized the risks that may require the adjustment of the monetary strategy in the future. The Swiss National Bank expects inflation at 2.2% this year, with a forecast for it to remain at that level in 2024, with a further slowdown to 1.9% by 2025.Resistance levels: 0.9150, 0.9200, 0.9250, 0.9300.Support levels: 0.9100, 0.9077, 0.9050, 0.9025.Gold analysisThe precious metal is on the decline this week, reaching the level of 1910.00. The US dollar is strengthening thanks to the latest hawkish statements of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) representatives, indicating that the process of tightening the financial policy is not over yet and the probability of a rate cut is extremely low.Yesterday, Neel Kashkari, head of the FRB Minneapolis, stressed that given the current resilience of the US economy to the regulator's decisions, additional rate increases are likely to be needed to stabilize inflation towards the target threshold of 2.0%. According to Austan Goolsby, head of the FRB Chicago, the current inflationary increase is a bigger challenge for the US economy than the slowdown caused by the tightening of monetary policy. Overall, the Fed officials' words hint that despite keeping the rate at 5.50% in September, the fight against inflation is not over. They also prepare the market for a possible rate hike this year. Specialists believe that rates will be kept at an elevated level for an extended period of time. This policy of the Fed favors the dollar against other assets.Resistance levels: 1927.85, 1953.12.Support levels: 1906.25, 1890.62, 1875.00.Crude Oil market analysisBrent crude oil prices are sagging for the second trading week in a row, having retreated around 94.90 due to monetary reasons. The financial market is worried about the strategy of the world's leading banks, such as the U.S. Federal Reserve and the ECB, to maintain high interest rates for a long time, fearing that it will deepen the economic recession and reduce demand for oil from the leading importers of raw materials.The cost of "black gold" is also negatively affected by the lifting of some restrictions on exports of gasoline and diesel fuel from Russia, originally introduced to ensure stability in the domestic market. In particular, shipments of high-sulfur diesel are now allowed, which reduces the shortage on the market before the onset of winter, causing a downturn in the prices of oil and related products.Resistance levels: 93.75, 96.88, 100.00.Support levels: 89.70, 87.50, 84.38.
Sep 26, 2023 Read
Analytical Forex Forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and Crude Oil on August 9
EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Analytical Forex Forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and Crude Oil on August 9 EUR/USD: "bears" gained support on weak statistics from GermanyIn the morning trading, the euro is trying to recover from the active decline of the previous day, approaching the level of 1.0965, waiting for new stimuli for further growth.The main factor of the "bearish" trend was the weak economic statistics from Germany. In June, the industrial production index decreased by 1.5%, which is more than the previous value of -0.1% and tends to March results of -3.4%. In parallel, the consumer price index was unchanged at 0.3% for the month and on an annualized basis fell from 6.4% to 6.2%. The harmonized index, in turn, rose from 0.4% to 0.5% on a monthly basis, and on an annualized basis experienced a correction, falling from 6.8% to 6.5%. This data is pushing the possibility of an interest rate increment by the European Central Bank (ECB) at its upcoming September meeting.Support levels: 1.0900, 1.0760.Resistance levels: 1.1030, 1.1200.GBP/USD: ahead of important data from the US and UKIn the morning trading on August 9, the pound is showing mixed movement at 1.2750.After the previous day's sharp decline, caused by the BRC retail sales statistics, which showed a gain of only 1.8% instead of the expected 3.0% and June data of 4.2%, the currency is looking to regain lost ground. Preliminary forecasts point to further deterioration, as consumption levels are falling as wage growth fails to keep pace with rapidly rising inflation. But for now traders refrain from active actions, waiting for key economic data from the US and UK, the publications of which are announced at the end of the week.On Thursday, the market will learn the data on US consumer inflation for July, which will allow to clarify the forecasts on the monetary policy of monetary authorities. Note that analysts are now predicting inflation to rise between 3.0% and 3.3% per annum, exceeding the Fed's target of 2.0%.Resistance levels: 1.2800, 1.2850, 1.2900, 1.2963.Support levels: 1.2747, 1.2690, 1.2600, 1.2500.USD/JPY: the pair's dynamics changed, ending a two-day riseThe US dollar is developing a correction at 143.12 after posting two-day gains earlier in the week, with USD/JPY hitting new highs since August 3. Trading activity declined as traders await US consumer and manufacturing inflation data.Meanwhile, fresh economic statistics from Japan, published the day before, did not add confidence to the yen. Thus, Japanese household spending in June fell by 4.2% year-on-year, continuing the trend of the previous month with a decline of 4.0%. It also became known that the growth of bank loans slowed to 2.9% per annum, which was below market expectations of 3.1%. At the same time, Japan's current account balance in June showed a fifth month of growth, reaching a surplus of 1.509 trillion yen, which exceeded forecasts of 1.395 trillion yen. Note also the 1.0 trillion yen improvement from a year earlier. Official representatives of the Ministry of Finance of Japan emphasized the positive dynamics of the trade balance, which reached 328.0 trillion yen. The published statistics confirmed the impact of high energy prices and weak yen on one of the world's largest economies, which relies heavily on imports of energy and raw materials.Resistance levels: 143.48, 144.00, 145.00, 146.00.Support levels: 142.54, 142.00, 141.50, 140.50.Crude Oil market analysisDuring Asian trading, Brent crude oil is holding steady around 85.70, correcting after a sharp drop a day earlier.The main reasons for the recent drop in prices were investors' concerns over weak Chinese foreign trade data and information from the American Petroleum Institute (API) regarding changes in commercial inventories. Specifically, exports fell by 14.5% against the forecasted -12.5%, while imports fell by -12.4%, although analysts expected a 5.0% drop. Such a sharp decline in statistical indicators raises concerns among market participants about the slowdown in China's economic recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic. Taking into account that China is a key consumer of oil and oil products, such changes may negatively affect the overall demand.Resistance levels: 86.00, 87.33, 89.20, 91.00.Support levels: 85.15, 83.89, 82.27, 81.00.
Aug 09, 2023 Read
Analytical Forex Outlook AUD/USD, USD/CAD, Gold and Crude Oil for Monday, August 7
AUD/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Analytical Forex Outlook AUD/USD, USD/CAD, Gold and Crude Oil for Monday, August 7 AUD/USD: Bank of Australia maintains moderate expectations for the growth of the national economyWith the US dollar steady, the AUD/USD currency pair is developing corrective sentiment at 0.6577.At the end of the previous week, the Bank of Australia released its quarterly monetary policy statement, where high inflation took center stage. Officials emphasized the slowdown in food price growth in the recent period, but rising rental costs continue to have a significant impact on households. The service sector is recovering at a slower pace than analysts had expected, as confirmed by the business activity report, where the index fell to 47.9 points in July from 50.3 points previously. Against this background, officials of the institution updated their forecasts for the national economy: they assume that at the end of the current year the gross domestic product (GDP) will amount to 0.9%, while core inflation and unemployment will remain at 3.9%, which will not allow the Australian dollar exchange rate to recover significantly.Support levels: 0.6530, 0.6384.Resistance levels: 0.6620, 0.6770.USD/CAD: Bank of Canada is convinced that the adjustments of corporate markups did not affect inflation dynamicsAt the morning session on August 7, the U.S. currency shows moderate strengthening, continuing its growth and reaching a two-month peak. The current USD/CAD rate is approaching 1.3380, reacting to the latest reports on the state of the labor markets in the US and Canada.Note that the US statistics showed the creation of 187.0k new non-farm jobs, which is slightly higher than the 185.0k growth in the previous month. The average payroll figure for July remained at 0.4% month-on-month and 4.4% year-on-year, contrary to market expectations of a decline to 0.3% and 4.2%, respectively. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5% from 3.6%. On the other hand, Canadian data showed a decrease in the number of jobs by 6.4 thousand in July after an increase of 59.9 thousand a month earlier. Experts had forecast growth of 21.1 thousand. Average wages increased by 5.0% year-on-year, surpassing the 3.9% increase in the previous month. The unemployment rate rose from 5.4% to 5.5%, reflecting the tightness in Canada's labor market. The business activity index from Ivey decreased from 50.2 to 48.6 points in July, falling short of the projected 52.7 points.Resistance levels: 1.3400, 1.3450, 1.3500, 1.3550.Support levels: 1.3350, 1.3300, 1.3250, 1.3224.Gold pricesGold quotes (XAU/USD) are experiencing a correction, reaching the level of 1936.97. This comes on the back of last Friday's slowdown, when the US dollar became more vulnerable after the July labor market report.At the same time, according to a recent report from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), net speculative positions in gold declined to 164.9k over the past week from the previous value of 173.6k. Analyzing this trend, we can see that swap dealers have a balance of 90,411 thousand on the side of "bulls", while "bears" control 250,580 thousand. Last week sellers increased their contracts by 677, while buyers added 3,818. This dynamics indicates a stable equilibrium that prevents a more decisive movement of quotes.Resistance levels: 1940.00, 1946.78, 1952.53, 1963.55.Support levels: 1930.00, 1923.06, 1915.00, 1907.55.Crude Oil market analysisDuring the Asian trading session, Brent Crude Oil prices are just below the level of 86.0 dollars per barrel.The rise in Brent Crude Oil prices is being driven by increased interest in oil contracts. A fresh report from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows that net speculative bets reached 241.9k, up from 225.2k a week earlier, reaching their highest level since late April. At the time, Brent prices were around $85.0 a barrel. Analysis of trading data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) shows that last week's average volume of transactions totaled approximately 751.4k, with the total number of open contracts exceeding 1.6 million, an increase from the previous month's data (640.5k and 1.2 million, respectively). This increase in trading activity serves as a supportive factor for oil prices.Support levels: 84.00, 79.60.Resistance levels: 87.10, 91.60.
Aug 07, 2023 Read
Analytical Forex Forecast for EUR/USD, NZD/USD, Gold and Crude Oil for Wednesday, August 2
EUR/USD, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Analytical Forex Forecast for EUR/USD, NZD/USD, Gold and Crude Oil for Wednesday, August 2 EUR/USD: the euro is under strain due to volatile macroeconomic indicatorsDuring the Asian trading session, EUR/USD quotes are testing the level of 1.0985.The negative trend of the euro, which has the potential to become a long-term trend, is formed against the background of unfavorable macroeconomic environment. In particular, for the second quarter, Italy's GDP decreased by 0.3% compared to the previous value of 0.6%, which led to a decline in the annual indicator from 1.9% to 0.6%. This affected the overall assessment of the EU economy, with growth slowing to 0.3% quarter-on-quarter and from 1.1% to 0.6% year-on-year. July's gauge of business activity in the German manufacturing sector declined to 38.8 points from 40.6 points, although the country's unemployment rate fell to 5.6% from 5.7% on the back of a 4.0k drop in the number of unemployed compared to the previous reading of 30.0k.The US dollar is experiencing a correction at 101.900 in USD Index despite a weak JOLTS labor market report: open job openings fell to 9.582 million in June from the revised May figure of 9.616 million, although analysts had forecast a rise to 9.610 million. The July ISM manufacturing activity index rose to 46.4 points from 46.0 points, falling short of the expected 46.8 points.Resistance levels: 1.1068, 1.1230.Support levels: 1.0920, 1.0740.NZD/USD: quarterly reports on the pairIn this review we will consider the medium-term investment prospects of the NZD/USD trading instrument.Right now, the fundamental situation is such that the New Zealand dollar looks much more vulnerable compared to the US dollar, although the latter continues to remain in the vicinity of the yearly lows at 102,000 points on the USD Index.In the middle of the previous month, the New Zealand Central Bank decided to keep the interest rate at 5.50%. The main factor behind this decision was a slight slowdown in inflation, which, according to the quarterly report, led to a downgrade to the current 6.0% from the previous 6.7%. However, the monetary authorities do not rule out the possibility of increasing monetary stimulus if the negative trend continues. A break in hawkish measures will certainly have a favorable impact on the national economy, which is in recession and has been showing a loss for two consecutive quarters. One of the main reasons for this dynamic remains the high unemployment rate, which, according to the latest report, increased to 3.6% from the previous 3.4%. At the same time, the index of wage changes showed a gain of only 1.1%, which led to a correction of the annual rate from 4.5% to 4.3%.Gold pricesAfter the latest moves by the US Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy, the precious metal is aiming for a June low, approaching the 1905.00 level.U.S. GDP for the second quarter, which was released last week, beat analysts' forecasts, coming in at 2.4% instead of the expected 1.8%, versus 2.0% in the previous quarter. In addition, the interest rate increase by 25 basis points to 5.50% actively supports the US dollar, which is likely to continue to weigh on gold if the US economy shows a sustained recovery.The medium-term trend is still downward: in July prices reached the key resistance level in the range of 1984.00-1975.00, but failed to overcome it, which makes short positions with a target in zone 2 (1914.00-1906.00) relevant. If the resistance level of 1984.00-1975.00 can be broken upwards and consolidate above this area, the medium-term trend will switch to an uptrend, with the target at the buy level in the range of 2067.00-2058.00.Resistance levels: 1980.00, 2050.00.Support levels: 1905.00, 1810.00.Crude Oil Market AnalysisThe cost of North American WTI crude oil is experiencing a correction within an uptrend, having risen to the level of 81.80. This comes amid the decision of OPEC+ countries to voluntarily reduce production from May to the end of the year by a total volume of about 1.66 million barrels per day, including the share of Russia, which began to reduce production by 500.0 thousand barrels per day since March. The alliance's move was called a precautionary measure to maintain market stability.In turn, Bloomberg analysts predict strengthening of oil supply deficit, which may reach 1.2 million tons in the second half of the year. Against this background, Russian Urals crude is becoming increasingly attractive to buyers, setting a new historical record with a price of 64.3 dollars per barrel. This exceeds the $60.0 ceiling set by European and Australian regulators, as well as the G7 countries after the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine began.Support levels: 80.10, 76.00.Resistance levels: 83.30, 88.10.
Aug 02, 2023 Read
Analytical Forex Forecast for AUD/USD, USD/JPY, Gold and Crude Oil for Tuesday, August 1
AUD/USD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Analytical Forex Forecast for AUD/USD, USD/JPY, Gold and Crude Oil for Tuesday, August 1 AUD/USD: RBA did not tighten monetary parametersIn the context of rising inflation and declining real estate activity in Australia, the AUD/USD exchange rate is on the decline, approaching the level of 0.6478.Fresh statistics for June on building permits show a negative trend, coming in at -7.7%, worse than the forecasted -7.0%. The prior reading was corrected from 20.6% to 20.5%. The number of mortgages originated decreased by 2.8%, which is more than the projected decrease of 1.7% and the prior reading of 5.1%.The key event of the week was the outcome of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) monetary policy meeting. Within the framework of this event, the interest rate remained at the maximum level in 11 years at 4.10%, despite the fact that analysts assumed its increase to 4.35%. Bank officials emphasized that hawkish policy has significantly reduced consumer demand, but additional monetary stimulus tightening may be needed to effectively fight inflation.Resistance levels: 0.6800, 0.6905, 0.7015.Support levels: 0.6478, 0.6285.USD/JPY: long-term dynamics will remain in the "green" zoneUSD/JPY is near 142.60 and aims to establish itself above the barrier of 142.15, in order to continue the upward trend after the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decision.The yen attempted to strengthen its position against the US dollar, with USD/JPY falling to 138.70, but the currency instrument failed to hold at these levels. As the borrowing rate remained in the negative range, investors started to sell the yen again, which led to the growth of USD/JPY pair quotations to the level of 142.15, where traders are currently trying to consolidate above this point. This financial instrument received some support in light of the publication of June statistics on industrial production and retail sales in Japan. Industrial production increased by 2.0% after a -2.2% decline in the previous month, but did not reach the 2.4% growth expected by analysts. Overall, the increase in domestic demand continues to drive Japanese industry. On the other hand, retail sales rose from 5.8% to 5.9%, indicating the stability of the country's economy amid the global economic crisis.Resistance levels: 145.50, 148.75.Support levels: 138.70, 137.50.Gold pricesQuotes of the precious metal are currently developing a correction, moving in a horizontal trend at the level of 1960.0.Investors are waiting for the upcoming summit of the leaders of the BRICS countries, which will be held in Johannesburg from August 22 to 24. It should be mentioned that at the last meeting the issue of creating a domestic independent currency was raised, which will facilitate trade operations and reduce the attachment to the dollar and euro in international settlements. It is expected that its value will be formed on the basis of a basket of national currencies, the weight of which will be correlated with the level of gross domestic product (GDP), the amount of international reserves, the balance of trade and the size of public debt. Most experts are of the opinion that if gold becomes the equivalent of this currency, its quotations may increase significantly, as the demand for this precious metal will increase significantly.Support levels: 1940.0, 1902.0.Resistance levels: 1980.0, 2020.0.Crude Oil Market AnalysisBrent Crude Oil prices have been climbing since late June, hovering around the three-month peak at 85.10.At the moment, OPEC+ exporting countries continue to reduce production of "black gold". Saudi Arabia cut production by 860.0 thousand barrels per day, with Riyadh expected to extend voluntary restrictions again for September. Meanwhile, the world's leading economies are showing signs of recovery and therefore increasing energy demand. According to the latest data, US gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 2.4% in the second quarter, beating preliminary estimates of 1.8%. Eurozone GDP added 0.6%, exceeding experts' expectations of 0.5%. However, the speed of recovery of the Chinese economy has slowed down significantly, but experts believe that the measures to stimulate domestic demand announced by the Chinese government are supporting it.Resistance levels: 87.50, 89.70.Support levels: 81.25, 77.15, 75.00.
Aug 01, 2023 Read
Analytical Forex Forecast for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD and USD/CHF for Monday, July 31
AUD/USD, currency, EUR/USD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Analytical Forex Forecast for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD and USD/CHF for Monday, July 31 EUR/USD: economists expect the release of GDP statistics for the European regionEUR/USD continues to move in a negative trend, steadily testing the level of 1.1009.An extensive package of macroeconomic data, including quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) information, is expected to be released soon. Preliminary forecasts suggest the possibility of the Italian economy stagnating in the second quarter after growing by 0.6% in the prior period, which could negatively impact the annualized statistics, correcting it to 0.9%. In light of this data, Eurozone GDP for the second quarter could increase by 0.2%, causing the annualized figure to slow from 1.1% to 0.5%. Additionally, investors will be evaluating the Consumer Price Index data, which could fall from 5.5% to 5.3% in July, unfortunately not enough to stimulate economic activity in the region.Support levels: 1.0960, 1.0760.Resistance levels: 1.1060, 1.1230.AUD/USD: Australian economy declined in Q2AUD/USD is looking to resume its upward trend, remaining at 0.6677.Australia's producer price index for the second quarter shows a 0.5% gain, down from 0.7% in the previous period. This led to a slowdown in annual growth from 4.9% to 3.9%, the lowest level since January 2022 when the index stood at 3.7%. Retail sales fell from 0.8% to -0.8% in June, recording a negative trend for the first time since February. Given the high rates, the mortgage lending figure slowed from 0.3% to 0.2% and the private sector slowed from 0.4% to 0.2%.The U.S. dollar was little changed after the Federal Reserve meeting, holding steady at 100.500 in the USD Index. The core Personal Consumption Price Index rose 0.2% in June, slightly below May's 0.3% increase and causing the annualized reading to correct from 4.6% to 4.1%. The second-quarter labor cost index rose 1.0% after an earlier 1.2% increase, reflecting increased tightness in the domestic labor market.Resistance levels: 0.6740, 0.6880.Support levels: 0.6620, 0.6480.USD/JPY: Japanese retail sales show a low levelUSD/JPY is experiencing a correction supported by the positive trend of the US dollar, navigating around the 141.92 level.According to this morning's report, Japan's industrial production increased by 2.0% in June following a -2.2% decline in the previous month. However, sales at major retailers fell 0.4% in the current month after adjusting 1.4%. In addition, investors took the new home construction report in stride, with the figure falling 4.8% from 3.5%.Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar continues to stay above the key 100,000 level in the USD Index, opening trading around 100,500. Tomorrow, market participants should pay attention to the JOLTS report on the number of open job vacancies in the labor market: it is expected to correct to 9.620 million from 9.824 million in the previous month, which is a negative signal amid still weak data on applications for unemployment benefits. The US manufacturing sector business activity index will also be released, which could rise to 46.5 points from 46.0 points.Support levels: 140.60, 138.00.Resistance levels: 142.80, 145.00.USD/CHF: the "bulls" managed to seize the initiative in the pairDuring the Asian trading session, the USD/CHF exchange rate remains stable, fluctuating around 0.8692.The American currency is strengthening amid the publication of impressive data on the US gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter, which reflects the high stability of the country's economy amid the crisis. The indicator grew by 2.4%, exceeding analysts' forecasts of 1.8% and improving the previous values of 2.0% due to the growth of consumer and government spending, as well as business investment. Thus, the signs of an impending recession are becoming less and less visible.In light of the low inflation rate of 1.7% p.a., the probability that the Swiss National Bank will tighten monetary policy remains low. The last interest rate hike was made in June, with the next decision expected on September 21. Until then, the Swiss franc is likely to trade in the corridor 0.9110-0.8570 under the onslaught of "bears".Resistance levels: 0.8770, 0.8833, 0.9003, 0.9110.Support levels: 0.8570, 0.8400.
Jul 31, 2023 Read
Forex analytical forecast for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD and crude oil for Thursday, July 27
EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Forex analytical forecast for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD and crude oil for Thursday, July 27 EUR/USD: the pair keeps positive prospects"Bulls" are successfully developing the dynamics of the EUR/USD pair for the second session in a row, trading at 1.1135.The positive trend is seen after yesterday's meeting of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials and ahead of today's meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) board members. The Fed, as expected, raised borrowing costs to a range of 5.25-5.50%, the highest in 22 years. However, the regulator's next steps remain unclear: they could either leave borrowing costs at current levels or raise them if inflation pressures intensify in July and August. Investors reacted positively to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's statements about the possibility of a significant decline in inflation without economic recession and rising unemployment.Resistance levels: 1.1230, 1.1291.Support levels: 1.1047, 1.0986, 1.0925.USD/JPY: the US Fed did not provide clarity on the outlook for monetary parametersThe positive dynamics of the US dollar allows the USD/JPY pair to test 139.99.Japan's macroeconomic background reflects a weak slowdown in the national economy. Thus, the corporate services price index sagged from 1.7% to 1.2% on an annualized basis, indicating lower business demand. According to the July data, the coincident indicator index was 0.1%, the same as in June, while the index of leading indicators fell from 109.5 points to 109.2 points. Investment by foreign corporations in Japanese securities fell to 101.0 billion yen, while purchases of Japanese bonds by foreign investors fell to 973.8 billion yen. Investors are waiting for the publication of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decision announced for tomorrow: in case of continuation of the negative level in the key indicator, there is a high probability of influence on the quotes of the Japanese currency.Resistance levels: 141.00, 143.90.Support levels: 139.30, 135.70.GBP/USD: the asset received an impetus to growth after the Fed meetingThe GBP/USD currency pair is showing strong positive dynamics three sessions in a row, having reached the area of 1.2995.Investors are actively preparing for the upcoming Bank of England meeting scheduled for next week, and the officials' next moves remain a mystery. Inflation in the UK, although showing a downward trend, is still leading among advanced economies, which may push the regulator to further increase borrowing costs. At the same time, the British economy is already under significant pressure, as evidenced by a distinct slowdown in business activity growth in July. Thus, an additional adjustment of the interest rate may increase the likelihood of recession. However, the majority of experts agree that the strict monetary policy will continue to evolve, which may contribute to the strengthening of the pound.Resistance levels: 1.3061, 1.3183.Support levels: 1.2817, 1.2695, 1.2573.Crude Oil Market AnalysisThe cost of light North American "black gold" grade WTI is holding at 79.35 within the framework of the development of a horizontal trend.Global oil rates continue to strengthen, supported by both the measures to limit production adopted by OPEC+ countries and the gradual increase in the share of the Russian Urals oil grade in global supplies. After the West imposed a price cap of $60.0 per barrel on the energy resource from the Russian Federation, the Urals price surpassed $65.0 per barrel for the first time. Russia is expanding its oil exports to Asia and Africa: in the first five months of 2023, Russian "black gold" shipments to Africa more than tripled to a record 8.0 million tons.Support levels: 77.10, 72.40.Resistance levels: 80.50, 86.00.
Jul 27, 2023 Read
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