GBPUSD: investors are waiting for inflation data
GBPUSD is showing a weak downward dynamic, testing the level of 1.2150. Earlier "British" tried to strengthen positions, getting support from the macroeconomic data block of consumer prices in the U.S., but by the end of the day trading the pair lost its potential and retreated from the achieved positions.
A moderate stimulus for the pound was provided by the release of the labor market data in Britain. Thus, the average payrolls excluding the bonus for December showed the upward trend of 6.7% against the previous 6.5%, and the number of January jobless claims dipped by 12.9 thousand, having earlier decreased by 3.2 thousand, exceeding analysts' expectations of 40.0 thousand and the November figure of 27.0 thousand. The overall state of the UK labor market is assessed by economists as satisfactory, but the gradual increase in wages is causing concern on the part of Bank of England officials, as such a trend may strengthen the fundamental incentives for inflation, forcing the agency to continue tightening monetary parameters.
- Resistance levels: 1.2192, 1.2240, 1.2311, 1.2400.
- Support levels: 1.2150, 1.2084, 1.2000, 1.1900.
AUDUSD: The "Aussie" has resumed its decline
The AUDUSD trading instrument is developing a downward dynamic within the framework of the correction, having finished its two-day rally since Monday, which allowed the pair to update its local high of February 3. Market participants are assessing the released earlier US consumer price statistics for January, which is in line with the market expectations for the probable end of the Fed's systematic interest rate hikes.
For instance, consumer prices in January showed a decline to 6.4% from 6.5% for the year, with experts expecting 6.2%, while the monthly figure rose to 0.5% from 0.1%, meeting forecasts. Analysts attribute the rising rate of inflation in early 2023 to fuel cost increases exceeding the 3.0% mark. The level of the underlying index, which does not include the cost of energy and food commodities, decreased in the annual dynamics to 5.6% from 5.7%, with an estimate of 5.5%, and in the monthly index showed zero dynamics, maintaining the mark of 0.4%.
Notable support for the instrument was provided by the macroeconomic data block in Australia. For example, business conditions on the index improved to 18.0 points from 13.0 points and confidence in the outlook on the index increased to 6.0 points from -1.0 points. Sales increased to 28.0 points from 20.0 points, but consumer sentiment from Westpac for February declined to -6.9% from 5.0%, reflecting the record impact of the Consumer Inflation Index and the PBA hawk wing on the outlook for Australian households.
- Resistance levels: 0.6950, 0.7000, 0.7050, 0.7100.
- Support levels: 0.6900, 0.6850, 0.6800, 0.6750.
Silver analysis
Silver made unsuccessful attempts to break the resistance level of 24.25, going down to 20.70 due to positive US dollar dynamics on the back of strong macro data release for January.
The commodities market began to lose interest from the traders, so silver's attractiveness also decreased. Meanwhile, the long-term outlook for the precious metal is still upward, but the quotes are close to the renewal of the key support level at 20.70. If the instrument manages to hold it, the next momentum will allow to reach the level of 24.25, but if the pessimistic scenario, silver will continue downward dynamics at 18.50.
- Resistance levels: 22.00, 22.75, 24.25.
- Support levels: 20.70, 18.50.
Crude Oil analysis
In the Asian trading the quotations of WTI oil were under the pressure of "bears" which took the lead with the beginning of the week when the value of the asset updated its maximum of January 27.
Statistics from the U.S. on reserves of "black gold" acts as a major negative factor for the instrument. According to the data, in order to combat the rising cost of fuel, the White House on Monday announced the withdrawal of additional 26.0 million barrels of hydrocarbon on the market from strategic reserves, which are already at their lowest level in 1983. Bloomberg reports that storage is full to 345.0 million barrels, down from 371 million barrels.
- Resistance levels: 78.74, 79.81, 81.00, 82.00.
- Support levels: 78.00, 77.00, 76.00, 75.00.