GBP/USD: the British pound was under pressure
The British currency shows an upward trend as part of the recovery of past losses of the last two sessions, which allowed the GBP/USD instrument to cross the 1.2000 mark, updating the record low of March 2020.
The "Briton" is strengthening due to the growing sentiment of the correction in the US dollar, for which the bidders decided to withdraw from part of the deals ahead of the release of ADP data on the number of employed among the private sector in June. In addition, a statement from US regulator officials Christopher Waller and James Bullard is expected this afternoon. Investors expect to receive confirmation of forecasts for further tightening of monetary parameters from the Fed amid rumors of a softening of the hawks' positions due to the risks of a recession in the national economy.
- Resistance levels: 1.2000, 1.2074, 1.2163, 1.2236.
- Support levels: 1.1874, 1.1800, 1.1700, 1.1600.
USD/CHF: "American" expects new growth incentives
During the Asian trading session, the USD/CHF currency pair shows a moderate decline, completing the stage of rapid strengthening since the beginning of the trading week. The asset is trading at 0.9700 as part of a downward trend, moving away from the local maximum on June 16.
The Swiss government fears that there are great risks of encountering a shortage of "blue gold" already with the onset of next winter against the background of a supply failure and imposed sanctions against the Russian Federation. Thus, according to Energy Minister Simonette Sommaruga, officials have prepared an algorithm of actions to prevent possible outages of about 300 thousand households using gas heating systems. The representative of the authorities assessed the situation of imports of resource goods from Germany as "unpredictable" and stated the need for priority use of "green" types of energy resources in order to compensate for the shortage of natural gas. The day before, government representatives had already declared their readiness to begin the process of rationing the supply of raw materials, in case of insufficient effect from the previously applied steps in the field of logistics and supply.
- Resistance levels: 0.9700, 0.9762, 0.9847, 0.9900.
- Support levels: 0.9618, 0.9520, 0.9459, 0.9400.
Silver
Silver quotes are trading with a slight strengthening within the framework of corrective sentiment, taking away the advantage of the "bears" in the asset, which lasted since the end of last month, which allowed the instrument to approach the July lows of 2020. With the onset of this week, silver is moving in a downward trend.
The precious metal was under pressure due to the active strengthening of the US dollar, which gained support on expectations of an increase in interest rates in the short term. Earlier, the US regulator published the final minutes of the meeting in May, which recorded a resolute readiness to continue the policy of tightening monetary parameters. In addition, the Fed drew attention to the rising inflation rates and the alarming situation in the employment market. In this regard, the bidders focused their attention around the release of the June statistics protocols from ADP. An additional negative factor on the tool is a decrease in production capacity in a number of countries around the world, which leads to a decline in the level of demand for metal as a production raw material. Traders' hopes for an improvement in the situation are associated with the stabilization of the demand for silver due to growing industrial activity in China, but the situation has gloomy prospects due to new outbreaks of coronavirus infections in Shanghai.
- Resistance levels: 19.50, 20.00, 20.58, 20.86.
- Support levels: 19.00, 18.41, 18.00, 17.60.
Cardano
During the current trading week, Cardano made attempts to reach the positions of the Bollinger bands line at the level of 0.4700.
In the present case, two opposite factors affect the asset. As before, the entire segment of the cryptocurrency market is negatively affected by the decisive policy of the US Federal Reserve, which increases the likelihood of a recession in the national economy. Thus, the information released earlier at the last meeting of US Federal Reserve officials confirmed the expectations of economists that the tightening of monetary parameters will continue even despite the side effects on the economy. In the current situation, market participants are selling their risky assets, which include cryptocurrencies. Positive support for the tool is provided by the expectation of the Vasil hard fork community, which will be able to strengthen the value of the ADA token to the 1.0000 mark. On the eve of the update, it was already pre-launched into the test network, but users of the main Cardano network will have the opportunity to prepare for connecting to it for at least four weeks. Based on these data, the fork will be fully launched only by the end of July. The modifier will make it possible to increase the speed of interaction of operations, increase the ability to use smart contracts, which in general will have a favorable effect on its popularity.
- Resistance levels: 0.4882, 0.5860, 0.6200.
- Support levels: 0.3906, 0.2929, 0.1953.
NZD/USD: the currency pair is stable at April peaksThe NZD/USD pair is holding near the 0.6010 level and local highs reached on April 10 and updated last week. The weakening of the US dollar on Friday was caused by data on the labor market, which increased pressure on the US Federal Reserve System on the issue of possible rate cuts in the foreseeable future.In particular, the creation of new jobs in the United States outside the agricultural sector amounted to only 175,000, which is significantly lower than the expected 243,000 and the previous value of 315,000. The growth of the average hourly wage slowed from 0.3% to 0.2% per month and from 4.1% to 3.9% per annum. The unemployment rate increased from 3.8% to 3.9%. A sharp decrease in the ISM business activity index in the service sector attracted special attention from investors — from 51.4 to 49.4 points, with a forecast of 52.0 points. These results reinforced expectations of an imminent Fed rate cut, which, according to analysts, will amount to 50 basis points and will be implemented twice this year. Earlier, Michelle Bowman, a member of the Fed's board, said that inflation is likely to continue to decline despite maintaining current rates, and confirmed her readiness to tighten monetary policy if consumer prices remain above 2.0% or continue to rise.The day before, data on the index of business activity in the Chinese services sector were also published: the index slightly decreased from 52.7 to 52.5 points, which continues to be considered a positive signal. In New Zealand, the ANZ commodity price index, an early indicator of export price inflation, was presented, which showed an increase of 0.5% after a decrease of 1.3% in the previous month.Resistance levels: 0.6030, 0.6047, 0.6082, 0.6100.Support levels: 0.6000, 0.5975, 0.5950, 0.5920.USD/JPY: April business activity in the Japanese services sector showed a declineThe USD/JPY pair is experiencing moderate growth, continuing yesterday's uptrend: the currency instrument is trying to overcome the level of 154.50. Analysts are now actively looking for new catalysts for currency movement and analyzing the factors of the unexpected strengthening of the yen last week. Most experts assume that the Bank of Japan could have conducted currency interventions, clearly warning about the risks of speculative operations and pointing to the influence of traders on the weakening of the national currency. Despite the lack of official confirmation from the regulator, the market analyzes only indirect signs. Experts estimate that funds worth about $ 59 billion could be used to support the yen exchange rate, and in the near future the regulator may seek to keep the US dollar exchange rate in the range of 150.00–155.00.Today's weakening of the yen is supported by macroeconomic statistics from Japan: the April index of business activity in the services sector, provided by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, which tracks the cost of services purchased by companies in the main service sectors (excluding manufacturing) and serves as a harbinger of the Tankan index, fell from 54.6 to 54.3 points, despite neutral expectations.Resistance levels: 154.50, 155.00, 155.50, 156.00.Support levels: 154.00, 153.50, 153.00, 152.50.Gold market overviewGold trading shows mixed dynamics, maintaining around the level of 2320.00. Investors are waiting for new growth incentives, while gold is undergoing a minor technical correction and updating the minimum values since April 5 last week.Gold is supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Attempts to negotiate a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas appear to have failed, leading to extensive new Israeli military operations in Rafah. Demand for the precious metal is also increasing in anticipation of a possible rate cut by the world's largest central banks. Among the contenders for the first reduction is the European Central Bank, from which markets expect changes in monetary policy at the upcoming June meeting.Resistance levels: 2336.50, 2353.79, 2375.00, 2400.00.Support levels: 2320.00, 2300.00, 2285.00, 2265.52.Oil market overviewPrices for the Brent Crude Oil brand are experiencing an upward correction, exceeding $ 83.00 per barrel amid the lack of significant positive economic data.Investors' attention was attracted by an announcement from representatives of Shell Plc., a major global producer of hydrocarbons, about its intention to completely exit the South African market after more than a century of presence. According to a press release published on the Johannesburg stock Exchange, the company plans to reorganize its refining portfolio and sell its stake in Shell Downstream SA. It also became known that 700 filling stations under the management of the corporation will be sold, which will be the final stage after the closure of the last processing plant in 2022.According to Reuters, OPEC+ countries may decide to extend the current production reduction agreement for another three months. The next meeting of the cartel is scheduled for June 1. At the moment, oil prices are close to last year's levels, and despite an increase in production in the United States, Canada, Brazil and Guyana, which compensates for OPEC+ measures, the cartel countries will continue to reduce production until global demand fully recovers.Resistance levels: 84.60, 87.90.Support levels: 82.50, 79.40. 
EUR/USD: eurozone reported an increase in GDP for Q1In early trading, the EUR/USD exchange rate is experiencing an adjustment, being at the level of 1.0655, although economic statistics from the European Union show positive trends.On the eve of the meeting, many EU states presented results on gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter. France showed an improvement of 0.2%, reaching 1.1% year-on-year, which is higher than the previous 0.8%. Spain recorded a 0.7% quarterly GDP growth and an increase from 2.1% to 2.4% per annum, while in Italy the quarterly growth was 0.3%, although the annual rate decreased from 0.7% to 0.6%. The German economy grew by 0.2% compared to the previous 0.5% decline, but the annual rate remained negative at -0.2%. As a result, eurozone GDP improved from -0.1% to 0.3% quarterly and from 0.1% to 0.4% per annum. These data may contribute to the decision of the European Central Bank to lower interest rates. In this context, the head of the Dutch Central Bank, Claes Noth, stressed the continuation of the disinflation process, making the upcoming rate cut in June likely, but called for caution in the further steps of the regulator.Resistance levels: 1.0710, 1.0810.Support levels: 1.0620, 1.0500.GBP/USD: UK Mortgage Loan record in 18 monthsThe GBP/USD exchange rate is at 1.2470 and continues to decline amid unfavorable economic data from the UK.April figures from Nationwide Building Society showed a decrease in the housing price index by 0.4% for the month, which is worse than the predicted 0.2% and the previous value of -0.2%. The annual index also fell to 0.6%, against the expected 1.2% and the previous 1.6%. This trend contributes to an overall slowdown in inflation, which now stands at 3.2% compared to the previous figure of 3.4%. This gives the Bank of England the opportunity to reduce interest rates more actively, ahead of market expectations. In addition, in March, the number of approved mortgage loans reached 61.33 thousand, updating an 18-month record. The growth in consumer lending amounted to 1.577 million pounds compared with 1.429 million pounds a month earlier, and net borrowing by individuals increased to 1,800 million pounds against the projected 1,700 million.Resistance levels: 1.2525, 1.2697, 1.2875.Support levels: 1.2322, 1.2058.USD/JPY: exchange rate forms a global wave of appreciationThe USD/JPY pair fluctuates horizontally near the 157.82 mark, while the yen continues its decline, reaching a new peak of 160.00 on Monday, followed by a sharp rise in the currency. A significant correction followed after Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida avoided answering questions about potential currency interventions at a press conference. Despite this, taking into account trading volumes, it can be assumed that the Bank of Japan took measures to influence the market, which should be confirmed by the report on the current balance of operations of the regulator, which will be published next week.The yen has been under pressure for a long time, not finding support in macroeconomic data: retail sales growth slowed from 4.7% to 1.2% in March, falling short of the projected 2.5%, which was the result of the increasing impact of inflation on household finances. According to a report by the Bank of Japan, prices for services continue to rise, but a significant increase in wages offered by companies may increase citizens' incomes this year and help stabilize the consumer price index at the target 2.0%. It should be noted that April showed an improvement in the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector to 49.6 points from 48.2 points, but this did not bring significant support to the yen.Support levels: 157.00, 154.50.Resistance levels: 158.30, 160.20.Oil market analysisBrent crude oil prices have stabilized at $85 per barrel.Economic data from China are supporting oil prices: in the first quarter, the country increased oil imports by 0.7% compared to the same period last year, reaching 137.36 million tons. At the same time, oil production in China increased by 2.3% to 53.48 million tons, refuting assumptions about a significant reduction in energy demand from the Chinese economy at the beginning of the year, which had a positive impact on market prices.However, the current local trend is under pressure due to the growth of strategic hydrocarbon reserves in the United States. According to information from the American Petroleum Institute (API), oil reserves increased by 4,906 million barrels over the past week, which contradicts analysts' expectations of a reduction of 1,500 million barrels. A new report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) is expected, where analysts predict an adjustment of -2.300 million barrels after the previous drop of -6.368 million, raising questions against the background of API data.Resistance levels: 86.50, 89.50.Support levels: 84.70, 81.50. 
EUR/USD: negative factors support the downtrendThe EUR/USD currency pair follows a descending channel: the middle of the month showed that the price reached the minimum level of the channel at 1.0600, followed by a correction to the middle line of the Bollinger bands at 1.0725, where the quotes are now located.A corrective increase does not change the overall fundamental mood of the development of events, contributing to the support of a long-term downward trend. The market anticipates a difference in the approaches of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the US Federal Reserve (FRS) to monetary policy, which strengthens the dollar's position against the euro. The ECB is expected to begin lowering interest rates as early as June, while the Fed will postpone these measures until at least September. Recent economic reports confirm the ECB's intentions to ease policy: the consumer price index for April maintained the level of 2.4% per annum, core inflation fell to 2.7%, falling short of the projected 2.6%. Eurozone GDP in the first quarter also showed better results than expected, confirming the economic recovery and a decrease in inflationary pressure, which may lead to a reduction in interest rates soon.Resistance levels: 1.0742, 1.0864, 1.0945.Support levels: 1.0645, 1.0559, 1.0498.GBP/USD: monetary policy strengthens the US dollarOver the past two months, the GBP/USD pair has been in a downward trend: last week was marked by the achievement of the minimum value of this channel, followed by an upward correction to the level of 1.2550. The current rise in the value of the pound is seen as only a short-term phenomenon and is unlikely to change the general vector of movement of the currency pair, as monetary policy continues to strengthen the US dollar. Experts expect that the Bank of England may begin lowering interest rates as early as June or August, despite the unexpected increase in inflation in March to 3.2%, against the projected 3.1%. At the same time, the US Federal Reserve may postpone easing its policy until the autumn. In the worst-case scenario, given the rise in inflation, the American financial regulator may not even reduce the cost of borrowing this year or decide to raise rates.In March, 61.33 thousand mortgages were approved in the UK, which was a record for the last 18 months. The volume of consumer lending increased to 1,577 million pounds compared with 1,429 million pounds a month earlier, and net borrowing by individuals increased to 1,800 million pounds, exceeding forecasts by 100,000 pounds. Despite these data confirming the recovery of the construction sector, the British currency did not receive support due to the cautious position of traders before the upcoming meeting of the US Federal Reserve. It is expected that if the US regulator keeps interest rates unchanged, confirming the postponement of monetary policy adjustments until the autumn, the GBP/USD pair may experience additional pressure.Resistance levels: 1.2573, 1.2695, 1.2817.Support levels: 1.2451, 1.2329, 1.2207, 1.2085.USD/CHF: decline of important Swiss economic indicators in AprilThe USD/CHF currency pair is hovering around 0.9126, intending to test resistance at 0.9142 due to the weakening of the Swiss franc against the background of disappointing economic data.Today's report by the Swiss Economic Institute KOF, covering 12 key indicators, including consumer confidence, manufacturing, new orders and the real estate market, pointed to the economic outlook for the next six months. The indicator value for April was 101.8, being lower than the expected 102.1 points, while the previous estimate was adjusted from 101.5 to 101.4 points. Despite this, the nominal wages index increased by 1.7% in 2023, reaching 102.4 points compared to last year. In the context of 2.1% inflation, real wages decreased by 0.4%, and the salary index fell to 96.9 points, which is below the stability threshold of 100 points. In June, the regulator is expected to keep the interest rate at 1.50%, which in the long term may weaken the national currency.Resistance levels: 0.9142, 0.9230, 0.9330.Support levels: 0.9015, 0.8878.NZD/USD: the exchange rate falls to 0.5928 following negative data from New ZealandFollowing disappointing economic indicators from New Zealand, the NZD/USD exchange rate is showing a decline, aiming for a reference point at 0.5928.The April business confidence index, prepared by the ANZ group from Australia and New Zealand, showed a value of 14.9 points, which is significantly lower than the expected 24.0 points and the previous result of 22.9 points. This indicates that business conditions in the country are deteriorating, causing increased sales of the New Zealand dollar and supporting the trend towards its depreciation. Despite the ongoing downward trend, the recent foreign trade report provided temporary support to the exchange rate: March exports increased to NZ$6.50 billion compared to NZ$5.79 billion a month earlier, while import growth stopped at NZ$5.91 billion. This made it possible to achieve a trade surplus again, which amounted to NZ$ 588.0 million.Resistance levels: 0.5981, 0.6005, 0.6069.Support levels: 0.5928, 0.5860. 
AUD/USD: US dollar is declining against the Australian dollarDuring the Asian trading session, the AUD/USD pair showed growth, reaching 0.6585, thanks to strong macroeconomic support from Australia.The Australian economy has shown significant changes in the structure of prices for exports and imports. In the first quarter of this year, export prices decreased by 2.1%, and on an annual basis - by 8.3%, largely due to a decrease in prices for crude fertilizers and minerals by 58.1%, as well as metals and natural gas by 1.6% and 1.0%, respectively. Import prices fell by 1.8% quarterly and by 0.7% over the year, with the largest drop in prices for oil and petroleum products (-6.4%), electrical equipment (-4.9%) and pharmaceutical products (-3.5%).On the other hand, the US dollar continues its downward trajectory, being at the level of 105.300 on the USDX index. The latest report on the basic index of personal consumption expenditures in the United States showed an increase of 0.3% on a monthly basis and 2.8% on an annual basis, in line with expectations. Incomes and expenditures of the population also increased by 0.5% and 0.8%, respectively. However, recent data from the University of Michigan indicate a decline in consumer optimism, with the expectations index falling to 76.0 and the consumer sentiment index to 77.2. These factors may put pressure on the US currency and support further AUD/USD growth ahead of new economic data and policy decisions.Support levels: 0.6550, 0.6450.Resistance levels: 0.6610, 0.6720.USD/CAD: pair is losing ground, leaving the top of the channel 1.3850–1.3600In the Asian session, the USD/CAD currency pair shows a correction, stabilizing near the level of 1.3641. The latest statistics of the country's labor market have a positive impact on the Canadian currency.According to the latest data, in February there was an increase in the number of salaries to 17.7 thousand, which, however, is less than the January increase of 35.7 thousand. Annual figures also show steady growth: the total number of employees hired increased by 154.7 thousand or 0.9%. In addition, the number of vacancies increased to 656.7 thousand, which is 21.8 thousand or 3.4% more than in the previous period. These data highlight the strengthening of the Canadian labor market, which can play a key role in the country's further monetary policy and have an impact on the Canadian dollar.Resistance levels: 1.3700, 1.3820.Support levels: 1.3600, 1.3470.USD/CHF: currency pair reaches the top of SeptemberDuring trading, the USD/CHF pair settled at 0.9109, experiencing difficulties with increasing dynamics due to the discrepancy between macroeconomic statistics and analysts' expectations.The latest wage data in Switzerland showed a moderate increase in nominal wages by 1.7% in 2023, reaching 102.4 points compared to the previous year. In the context of current inflation at 2.1%, real wages decreased by 0.4%, and the real wage index dropped to 96.9 points, not reaching the stability threshold of 100.0 points. These indicators highlight the difficulties faced by the Swiss economy in the face of rising prices and put pressure on the exchange rate of the national currency paired with the US dollar.Support levels: 0.9050, 0.8950.Resistance levels: 0.9150, 0.9240.Oil market analysisLast week, Brent Crude Oil prices showed an uptrend, trying to gain a foothold above the 87.50 price level, which corresponds to the fourth Murray mark [4/8]. Both positive economic data and ongoing tensions in the Middle East contributed to the price increase.According to the latest April figures, the composite index of business activity in the eurozone rose to 51.4 points, which, according to analysts, indicates the likelihood of continued economic growth and Germany's exit from recession. At the same time, U.S. GDP growth slowed to 1.6% in the first quarter, falling below expectations, while data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed a decrease in reserves by 6.368 million barrels. These factors indicate a possible increase in global oil demand and support price growth.However, a possible settlement of the conflict between Israel and Hamas during negotiations in Cairo, with the participation of the United States, may reduce geopolitical tensions and, consequently, pressure on oil prices. A successful agreement can reduce the risks of supply interruption by influencing price dynamics. An additional impact on the market may be caused by the Federal Reserve postponing the timing of monetary policy easing until the end of the year, which may become known at the upcoming meeting of the regulator.Resistance levels: 88.55, 90.62, 93.75.Support levels: 85.70, 81.25. 
EUR/USD: American business did not meet analysts' expectationsIn the current trading session, the EUR/USD pair is showing growth, moving to the level of 1.0700 and updating the highs since April 12 thanks to the released macroeconomic statistics.The values of the indices of business activity in the manufacturing sector in France and Germany for April showed 44.9 and 42.2 points, having stabilized relative to the previous month. In the service sector in France, the index increased from 47.7 to 50.5 points, and in Germany — from 50.1 to 53.3 points. The entire region showed a decrease in manufacturing activity from 46.1 to 45.6 points, while in the services sector the index rose from 51.5 to 52.9 points, which contributed to the growth of the composite index from 50.3 to 51.4 points. Today will bring a speech by the President of the German Federal Bank, Joachim Nagel, in which the forecasts of economic development and inflation are expected to be clarified.Resistance levels: 1.0730, 1.0800.Support levels: 1.0670, 1.0600.NZD/USD: currency pair shows a short-term uptrendThe NZD/USD pair is seeing a slight upward momentum, aiming to exceed the recent peaks of mid-April: the exchange rate is approaching 0.5950, reflecting an increase when traders analyze the latest New Zealand trade data. March reports showed an increase in exports from 5.79 billion to 6.5 billion dollars and a decrease in imports from 6.1 billion to 5.91 billion, reducing the trade deficit from 12.06 billion to 9.87 billion dollars, and allowing the trade balance to reach a surplus of 0.588 billion on a monthly basis.At the same time, the US currency came under pressure after the publication of business activity indices for April: the S&P Global manufacturing index fell from 51.9 to 49.9 points, which is worse than expectations for growth to 52.0, and the services index fell from 51.7 to 50.9 points, against the forecast of 52.0 points.Resistance levels: 0.5950, 0.5975, 0.6000, 0.6030.Support levels: 0.5920, 0.5885, 0.5858, 0.5830.Analysis for GoldThe price of gold showed an uptrend, reaching the level of 2325.0, but now it is experiencing a correction, indicating a decline in the activity of traders focusing on short-term operations.Recent statistics from the United States, presented this week, may delay the start of the interest rate cut cycle until the fall, given that the main indicators for the Federal Reserve remain the real estate and labor market sectors. The March report showed a decrease in the number of building permits to 1.467 million, which is the lowest level since last fall and indicates the untimely reduction of interest rates in the near future. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of monetary policy easing at the Fed meeting on May 1 is only 5.2%, and at the meetings on June 12 and July 31 — 14.8% and 37.9%, respectively. In this situation, investors who expected to profit from the strengthening of gold came to the conclusion that at the moment a correction is more likely than a further strengthening of prices.Resistance levels: 2350.0, 2410.0.Support levels: 2290.0, 2220.0.Oil market analysisIn the Asian trading session, the prices of WTI Crude Oil demonstrate stability, holding near the level of 83.30 dollars per barrel. This is happening against the background of the publication of April data on business activity in key sectors of the US economy, which turned out to be below analysts' expectations: the index in the manufacturing sector from S&P Global fell to 49.9 points, and in services fell to 50.9 points.It is expected that later today, at 14:30 GMT, new data on orders for durable goods in the United States for March will be announced, which may affect investment sentiment. It is predicted that the indicator for capital goods will decrease to 0.3%, while the total volume of orders excluding the defense sector, on the contrary, will increase to 2.5%. In addition, at 16:30, data from the US Energy Information Administration on oil reserves for the past week will be published, which are tentatively estimated to decrease by 1.7 million barrels.Attention should also be paid to the recent report of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which showed a decrease in net speculative positions on WTI oil to 290.5 thousand. The reporting data indicate the restructuring of investors' portfolios, which may signal the anticipation of changes in the market. Thus, the balance of positions among producers and traders showed an active movement both to buy and to sell, which foreshadows possible fluctuations in oil prices in the near future.Resistance levels: 84.00, 84.75, 85.50, 86.00.Support levels: 83.00, 82.00, 81.00, 80.00. 
AUD/USD: market is anticipating the Australian inflation report for the quarterThe AUD/USD pair is experiencing a moderate rise, continuing the positive trend started yesterday, and is striving to exceed the value of 0.6450, updating the highs since April 15 against the background of current economic indicators.The index of manufacturing activity in Australia from S&P Global increased from 47.3 to 49.9 points in April, while the indicator in the service sector from Commonwealth Bank fell slightly from 54.4 to 54.2 points. The composite index showed an increase from 53.3 to 53.6 points. With the start of trading in the United States, data on similar indices are expected on the market: it is predicted that in the manufacturing sector the indicator will increase from 51.9 to 52.0 points, and in services it will also reach 52.0 points. In Australia, the quarterly inflation report is also due to be published this week, where the consumer price index is expected to accelerate from 0.6% to 0.8% of quarterly growth and decrease annual inflation from 4.1% to 3.4%.Resistance levels: 0.6456, 0.6480, 0.6500, 0.6524.Support levels: 0.6420, 0.6388, 0.6361, 0.6300.USD/CAD: currency pair stabilizes at 1.3700The USD/CAD pair shows volatile trends at 1.3700 during the Asian session, maintaining the pace of the recent bearish trend, which led to lows since April 12.Positive economic signals came from the United States, where the March activity index from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago rose to 0.15 points from 0.09. In Canada, meanwhile, new home prices remained unchanged after rising 0.1% in the previous month, and the growth rate of the industrial goods price index slowed to 0.8%, in line with forecasts.This week, the market's attention is focused on the American economy: on Thursday, the publication of primary GDP data for the first quarter is expected, which may show a slowdown in economic growth to 2.5% from 3.4%. On Friday, the key event will be an update on the personal consumption expenditure index, an important inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve, presumably showing an acceleration of the base value to 0.3% monthly and a slowdown to 2.6% on an annual basis.Resistance levels: 1.3700, 1.3750, 1.3800, 1.3853.Support levels: 1.3650, 1.3616, 1.3580, 1.3550.USD/JPY: increased business activity in Japan in AprilThe USD/JPY pair holds positions in the horizontal range around 154.72, while the US dollar shows signs of slowing down.Without intervening directly, the Bank of Japan continues to monitor the market situation, despite a number of minor interventions that were quickly smoothed out by the market. After switching from a policy of negative interest rates to a range of 0.0–0.1%, the regulator emphasizes that it will maintain a soft monetary policy due to weakening inflation.The upcoming macroeconomic publications will attract additional attention of investors: in April, the business activity index in the Japanese manufacturing sector rose to 49.9, and the index in the service sector improved to 54.6. March inflation statistics showed a drop: the general consumer price index fell to 2.7%, and the base index to 2.9%. On Friday, data on April inflation in Tokyo and the meeting of the Bank of Japan are expected, which may affect the policy of currency intervention.Resistance levels: 155.10, 156.80.Support levels: 153.90, 151.80.Analysis for GoldThe price of gold is experiencing a noticeable drop, deepening into the "bearish" trend that began in the previous days: at the moment, gold is struggling with the support level of $ 2310.00 per ounce, reaching lows that have not been observed since April 5. The downturn is fueled by a decrease in tensions in the Middle East and expectations that the US Federal Reserve will not adjust its monetary policy until the fall, perhaps even until the end of 2024.Nevertheless, there is activity in the gold futures market. According to the latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the volume of net speculative positions fell from 202.4 thousand to 201.9 thousand last week. The number of positions backed by cash reached 198,276 thousand for bulls and 25,415 thousand for bears. Over the past seven days, the volume of purchases decreased by 10,357 thousand contracts, while sales decreased by 4,078 thousand, indicating continued asset sales among market participants.Resistance levels: 2320.00, 2336.50, 2353.79, 2375.00.Support levels: 2300.00, 2285.00, 2265.52, 2245.00. 
EUR/USD: correction before data on consumer confidence in the eurozoneIn the current trading session, the EUR/USD pair is showing cautious growth, continuing the "bullish" trend set at the end of last week. At the moment, the euro is trying to overcome the level of 1.0665, while the market is waiting for new catalysts of movement. The fundamental situation today is predictable: the main attention is focused on the speech of Christine Lagarde from the ECB and the monthly report of the Bundesbank. In addition, investors are expecting data on the April level of consumer confidence in the eurozone, with a slight increase in the index from -14.9 to -14.0 points.An analysis of March statistics on the German producer price index shows an increase of 0.2% month-on-month, reducing annual industrial inflation to -2.9% from -4.1%, which is higher than analysts expected the indicator to stabilize.Resistance levels: 1.0700, 1.0730, 1.0765, 1.0800.Support levels: 1.0660, 1.0630, 1.0600, 1.0561.USD/CAD: currency pair is losing ground from the upper limit of the ascending channel 1.3800–1.3650In the Asian session, the USD/CAD currency pair shows stable performance, being at the level of 1.3725, in anticipation of new economic data.According to the latest report from Statistics Canada, in February there was a decrease in investment in construction: the total volume decreased by 1.1%, to CAD 19.3 billion, including investments in residential complexes fell by 1.2%, to CAD 13.4 billion, and in commercial and industrial buildings — by 0.9%, to CAD 6.0 billion. In the coming hour (14:30 GMT+2), data on March prices for industrial goods are expected to be published, their growth is projected to be 0.8%, as well as an update of the index of the cost of new housing, the estimated increase of which will be 0.1%. The commodity price index is also expected to increase by 2.9%.Resistance levels: 1.3760, 1.3870.Support levels: 1.3690, 1.3560.NZD/USD: increased consumer spending in New ZealandThe NZD/USD pair shows a moderate correction, holding at 0.5912 against the background of stabilization of the US dollar, while the lack of strong support from local economic statistics significantly restrains the growth of the New Zealand currency.A report from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand showed that March credit card spending reached NZ$3.794 billion, up from February's level of NZ$3.697 billion, but still below the previous year's March figure of NZ$4.018 billion. Despite the growth of the last two months, the current figures still have not reached the levels of the end of the previous year, estimated at 4,200 billion New Zealand dollars.The US dollar, trading at 105.80 in USDX, remains the main factor influencing the dynamics of the pair. The recent report on the decline in sales in the secondary housing market in the United States to 4.19 million from 4.38 million, although lower than expected, supports some optimism, since the figures are better than last year's data (3.78 million). The US Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions will largely depend on future data on the real estate sector, which may delay a possible rate cut if this sector weakens.Resistance levels: 0.5950, 0.6040.Support levels: 0.5880, 0.5790.USD/CHF: Switzerland's March surplus reached 2.8 billion francsThe USD/CHF currency pair demonstrates stabilization of the 0.9122 level, despite positive macroeconomic data from Switzerland.Switzerland's March trade surplus expanded from 2.3 billion to 2.8 billion francs. Exports decreased by 0.6% to 21.1 billion francs, while imports decreased by 3.3% to 18.2 billion francs. In the export segment, there was a decrease in jewelry by 37.2% and watches by 1.5%. Among imported goods, jewelry and chemical and pharmaceutical products showed the largest drop, falling by 18.1% and 6.0%, respectively. These factors put pressure on the Swiss currency, supporting the trend towards strengthening the USD/CHF pair in the context of slowing international trade.Resistance levels: 0.9150, 0.9250.Support levels: 0.9080, 0.8970. 
EUR/USD: continued decline in the context of a long-term bearish trendAs part of a long-term downtrend, the EUR/USD pair experienced pressure, falling to the lower boundary of the channel near the 1.0600 mark, followed by a correction to the 1.0681 level. Amid expectations of changes in monetary policy, the market is tuning in to a possible rate cut by the European Central Bank as early as June, while the adaptation of the US Federal Reserve's policy is expected no earlier than September.Economic statistics support forecasts of an imminent correction: the March consumer price index of the eurozone showed a decrease to 2.4% per annum, the base index fell to 2.9%. In the US, by contrast, the consumer price index increased to 3.5%, while core inflation remained at 3.8%. Market expectations regarding the easing of monetary policy by Europe are supported by statements by ECB officials who are ready to cut rates in June, unless extraordinary events occur, such as increased geopolitical risks in the Middle East, which can cause an increase in energy prices.Resistance levels: 1.0742, 1.0864, 1.0925.Support levels: 1.0645, 1.0559, 1.0498.GBP/USD: annual inflation rate in the UK dropped to 3.2%In the Asian session, the GBP/USD currency pair shows moderate growth, which began the previous day, and is trying to overcome the level of 1.2470, reacting to the latest data from the British economy.In March, monthly consumer price growth in the UK remained at 0.6%, and the annual inflation rate fell from 3.4% to 3.2%, falling short of the expected 3.1%. Core inflation, which excludes the cost of food and energy, also increased by 0.6%, which led to an annual rate of 4.2%, slightly higher than the forecast of 4.1%. The retail price index decreased to 4.3%, which was worse than the expected 4.2%, indicating a slower than expected decrease in inflationary pressure, which limits the rise of the pound. The market's attention on Friday will be focused on retail sales figures, which, according to forecasts, should show an improvement of 0.3% after stagnation in February.Resistance levels: 1.2520, 1.2690.Support levels: 1.2430, 1.2270.NZD/USD: pair is gaining strength after losses at the start of the weekNZD/USD is showing moderate growth, continuing the positive trend that began after the pair rebounded from the lowest values since the beginning of November 2023. At the moment, the exchange rate is approaching the psychological level of 0.5920, accompanied by expectations of new economic signals.Investors will direct their attention to the upcoming statistics on the American labor market, in particular, data on primary and secondary applications for unemployment benefits are expected: forecasts indicate a slight increase in the number of initial applications from 211,000 to 215,000. In addition, a publication from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector may show a decrease from 3.2 up to 1.5 points in April, which can affect the dynamics of the pair.On the other hand, recent inflation data in New Zealand caused pressure on the national currency: the consumer price index for the first quarter showed a slowdown from 4.7% to 4.0% per annum, which was below expectations, while the quarterly index showed an unexpected increase from 0.5% to 0.6%.Resistance levels: 0.5920, 0.5950, 0.5975, 0.6000.Support levels: 0.5885, 0.5858, 0.5830, 0.5800.AUD/USD: Australian currency is moving away from recent low valuesDuring recent trading, the AUD/USD pair is experiencing an uptrend, moving away from the lows reached on November 14, 2023, with quotes actively attacking the 0.6445 level. Investors are carefully studying the data of the March report on the Australian labor market, published on Thursday.The report showed a decrease in the number of employed by 6.6 thousand, which was a sharp restraint after the previous increase of 117.6 thousand, against the projected 7.2 thousand. At the same time, the number of full-time jobs increased by 27.9 thousand, while part-time employment fell by 34.5 thousand. The unemployment rate increased from 3.7% to 3.8%, which was below analysts' expectations of 3.9%, and labor force participation decreased from 66.7% to 66.6%.The US dollar also received support after recent statements by Chairman of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell. Although he did not provide a specific time frame for the start of rate cuts, he stressed that it would take more time to stabilize inflation at 2.0%. This led to a revision by investors of forecasts regarding the time of the first interest rate cut this year, while the majority believes that monetary policy easing is possible in September, followed by a possible reduction no earlier than the end of 2024. Up to two rate adjustments of 25 basis points each are expected this year.Resistance levels: 0.6456, 0.6480, 0.6500, 0.6524.Support levels: 0.6420, 0.6388, 0.6356, 0.6300.