AUD/USD: resumption of a record low in the pair
The Australian dollar is trading sideways in the framework of the Asia-Pacific trading, testing the 0.6400 mark.
The macroeconomic data published the day before created a slight negative momentum. Thus, exports in August increased by 2.6%, having previously shown a decline of 9.9% over the previous period, and the import positions of the same period strengthened by 4.5%, having previously increased by 5.2% due to the supply of fuels and lubricants. At the same time, a serious downward correction in the instrument prevents an increase in the cost of raw materials, among which the cost of coal, the most important Australian export commodity, is leading. The national trade balance showed a decrease in August to 8,324 million. Australian dollars from the previous 8,733 million Australian dollars, contrary to market forecasts of strengthening to 10,500 million Australian dollars.
- Resistance levels: 0.6450, 0.6522, 0.6572, 0.6650.
- Support levels: 0.6362, 0.6320, 0.6250, 0.6200.
USD/TRY: Lira under inflation pressure
The USD/TRY trading instrument is trading under the influence of fundamental growth factors, reaching the 18.600 mark.
The Turkish currency cannot get out from under pressure against the background of extreme macroeconomic indicators on the price growth index, having reached the maximum level of the last 24 years in September. Thus, inflation for the monthly indicator adjusted to 3.08% from 1.46%, for the year to 83.45% from the previous 80.21%, and the indicator of the cost of production on a monthly basis strengthened to 4.78% from 2.41%, the annual value from 143.75% to 151.59%. The negative dynamics was provoked by the increase in prices for transport services and food group goods for the population. Contrary to the record levels of the consumer price index, analysts do not see signals of readiness from the Central Bank of Turkey to stop the "dovish" course in the short term, moreover, such a policy finds full support from the president of the state. Recall that the financial department has been holding on to the trend opposite to world practice for a long time and regularly adjusts the interest rate in decline, against which the national economy continues to be under increasing pressure.
- Resistance levels: 18.7500, 19.1406, 19.5312.
- Support levels: 18.3593, 17.9687, 17.5781.
USD/CHF: The pair is waiting for data on the US labor market
, the "American" is developing a sideways trend, testing the 0.9900 mark during morning trading. Investors are in no hurry to increase activity, wanting first to study the labor market indicators in the United States, the publication of which is announced at the end of the week.
The market continues to be under the influence of anxious moods. The indicators of the global economy, as before, are prone to a negative scenario against the background of a restrained result of the fight against record inflation by world regulators. The cost of energy resources again rushed to growth, on the eve of displaying a slight correction, since the heating season in the eurozone countries will soon be launched. Meanwhile, the Swiss economy, as before, remains the most resistant to the inflation rate, because in September the value lost 0.2%, dropping to the level of 3.3% year-on-year. The positive dynamics became possible due to the strengthening of the cost of petroleum products, including fuel and fuel oil. By the end of the previous month, the authorities adopted a resolution to compensate the elderly for the growing cost of consumer goods by manipulating payment correction methods, which will come into force in January 2023, because, based on the data of the BfS (Federal Statistical Office), for the first quarter of 2020, all Swiss households sent for purchases of food group goods of the order of 535.0 francs, and in the second quarter the amount has already increased to 586.0 francs.
- Resistance levels: 0.9948, 1.0000, 1.0050, 1.0100.
- Support levels: 0.9868, 0.9807, 0.9762, 0.9700.
USD/CAD: the pair failed to overcome the 1.3750 mark
The bulls lost the advantage in the USD/CAD pair at 1.3750 due to the rhetoric of the hawks from the RB of Canada.
Carefully analyzing the daily positions of the instrument, analysts note the continuing long-term prospect of upward dynamics, meanwhile, the current week has shown a sign of change. At the very beginning of the week, during the trading sessions on Monday and Tuesday, the instrument lost a record 2.35% in value. In the middle of the week, an attempt was made by the pair to win back losses, but the strengthening lost its potential at 1.3750. With the support from sellers of the current level, the probability of a decline in value to the 1.3505 mark remains. With the development of upward dynamics, the asset will be able to update level 1.3830.
- Resistance levels: 1.3750, 1.3830.
- Support levels: 1.3600, 1.3505.
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