NZD/USD: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rate remained at 5.50%
The NZD/USD currency pair continues to show moderate growth, strengthening the bullish trend that began at the beginning of the week: currently, the exchange rate is approaching 0.6075, updating the highs since March 21 against the background of the latest decisions of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on the key interest rate.
As expected, the rate remained at 5.50%. The bank's official statement emphasized the importance of inflationary risks, which implies maintaining high rates for a long period. The bank's authorities also expressed the expectation that economic activity in New Zealand and its main trading partners may decline, in contrast to the stability of the US economy. It is assumed that major global central banks may begin easing monetary policy closer to the middle or end of the year, which will provide more data for analysis and subsequent market reaction.
Meanwhile, the NZD/USD pair was pressured by fresh data from New Zealand: the business confidence index from the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) fell by 25.0% in the first quarter after a 2.0% decline in the previous quarter.
- Resistance levels: 0.6077, 0.6100, 0.6130, 0.6158.
- Support levels: 0.6045, 0.6030, 0.6000, 0.5975.
GBP/USD: British retail increased by 3.5% in March%
The GBP/USD currency pair shows minimal changes, being at the level of 1.2675. The day before, the pair actively grew and reached the highest since March 21, which was caused by the lack of significant macroeconomic data.
The March report by the British Consortium of Retailers (BRC) showed an increase in retail sales in the UK by 3.2%, which is significantly higher than the expected 1.8% and the previous month with an increase of 1.0%. Easter celebrations contributed to a significant increase in demand for food, but overall sales growth remains moderate due to adverse weather and high inflation, with a noticeable increase in grocery spending by 6.8% and a decrease in non-food items by 1.9% in the first quarter. In the United States, business optimism data from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) also turned out to be disappointing: the index fell from 89.4 to 88.5 points, falling short of the projected 90.2 points.
- Resistance levels: 1.2700, 1.2734, 1.2771, 1.2810.
- Support levels: 1.2650, 1.2600, 1.2573, 1.2539.
Gold market Analysis
The price of gold is in the correction phase within the framework of an uptrend, trading at around 2359.0. A new surge of growth is taking place in the market, which is supported by both private and institutional investors.
Since the beginning of the year, a number of factors have favored an increase in quotations. The main support for the precious metals market is the current geopolitical tension: in the context of military conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, investors prefer investments in protective assets, among which gold acts as a reliable tool for preserving and increasing capital. This is also confirmed by trading volumes: according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group), the average trading volume over the past two sessions reached 306.5 thousand positions, which is significantly higher than 278.0 thousand in early March and 134.0 thousand. at the end of February.
- Resistance levels: 2375.0, 2450.0.
- Support levels: 2330.0, 2250.0.
Crude Oil market analysis
During the Asian trading session, prices for WTI Crude Oil are held at around 84.70, as traders refrain from opening new positions ahead of the release of today's US inflation data at 14:30 GMT+2.
The price of oil was influenced by the latest forecasts of the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), according to which it is expected that oil production by OPEC+ countries in 2024 will decrease by 930 thousand barrels per day, which is 190 thousand barrels per day more than previous forecasts. By 2025, it is expected to increase production by 750 thousand barrels per day to 36.89 million barrels. Production forecasts for the current year have been adjusted by 470 thousand barrels per day, and for the next year — by 40 thousand barrels. In March, oil prices showed an increase for the third month in a row against the background of geopolitical risks associated with attacks on merchant ships in the Red Sea. In addition, the market was influenced by data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) on the dynamics of commercial oil reserves: in the week to April 5, inventories increased by 3.034 million barrels, while analysts expected an increase of 2.415 million barrels.
- Resistance levels: 85.50, 86.00, 87.00, 88.00.
- Support levels: 84.75, 84.00, 83.00, 82.00.