This week, Cred and DonAlt, the authors of the Technical Roundup mailing list, discuss how the majors (BTC/USD, ETH/USD) got to the resistance levels. We will also talk about the breakthroughs of some altcoins, in particular XRP, Solana and Aave. We will not ignore the dynamics of Ethereum.
Bitcoin Looms for Trend Followers
Bitcoin / dollars closed above $45 thousand, we can say, according to the weekly tradition. And this is very important. Not only the fact that the average support level for the week fell at $45 thousand, but also the fact that such a closure raised the price above the 21-week moving average – a popular indicator for detecting a trend on a high timeframe. The same argument applies to the 200-day moving average. Both indicators converge around $45 thousand in tandem with the above-mentioned weekly level.
Although Cred and DonAlt do not trade on moving averages, it is useful to have an idea of what positions can be taken by participants following the trend. Given that most systems built on a trend on a high timeframe are moving into a bullish phase, it is important to take into account the probability of a pattern failure. In this case, a return below $45 thousand will lead to the fact that many of the participants will be out of the game and, probably, the downward spiral will spin up to $38-$40 thousand.
In a broader sense, the nearest support level is at $45 thousand, and the nearest resistance level is at $49.1 thousand (or even closer to $50 thousand). As previously stated, the area around $50 thousand is quite dangerous from the point of view of calming the dynamics. If the bears are right, then this area will be the main candidate for a lower maximum. If the bulls are right, but the market will show a red candle before reaching a record high, the area of $50 thousand is most likely more suitable for this than others.
As a rule, the market looks strong until the opposite is proven, but new long positions seem less attractive as the market approaches the $50 thousand mark. If they are going to throw us, then this denouement is already somewhere close. Support at the level of $38 - $40 thousand in the style of "get rich or die", the nearest support is at $45 thousand, and resistance at $50 thousand.
Ethereum Dutifully Follows Bitcoin
The ETH/USD pair is at the resistance level ($3240-$3430). The pair with BTC is somewhere in the same range. Little has changed for Ethereum.
In last week's issue, we drew parallels between Bitcoin for $50 thousand and Ethereum for ~$3300 dollars as areas where new long positions are the least favorable in terms of the risk/benefit ratio. These concerns are also applicable to this week: now the ETH/USD pair is at the resistance level.
Closing on a high timeframe above $3,500 is likely to pave the way to new record highs, and it will do so taking into account the risks. Positioning now means buying at the resistance level in the hope that it will be broken, and it is still unclear whether a pullback will happen. Positioning above $3,500 would mean buying power, and the level itself indicates a clear disability in this scenario, i.e. a close below ~$3,300 will no longer be bullish.
It doesn't look so weighty, but from the point of view of chances, entering at the resistance level compared to buying above it, is a completely different setup. According to traders, it is the latter scenario that should be followed.
If the market pulls back, the nearest support level for the pair with USD will be found at $2750-$2890.
DonAlt shillit XRP
DonAlt, aka David, kept talking about long XRP positions from the very lows, and that's why we decided to include XRP in this week's issue.
Let's start, perhaps, with a pair of BTC. Here the installation is quite simple. The cyclical minimum is at the level of 1530 sats, while the price forms an unsuccessful breakdown pattern and closes above it. The next resistance level is 2980-3270 sats, and this area has been tested many times already. Accordingly, it is quite reasonable to assume a breakdown of this level and a price movement to 4322-4650 sats (the next resistance level).
Next – the USD pair. The price bounced off the support level at $0.60 and closed above $1. So far, there are no convincing resistance levels to new highs. A drop below $1 is likely to cancel out the bullish mood.
What about the context? The market literally exploded when the SEC charged Ripple Labs and two of its executives for allegedly offering unregistered securities. The market survived and has even been growing since then. If this news was not enough to bury the token, then what can I say? At the same time, any flow of positive news is likely to accelerate the rally. Any negative news, in turn, can hardly be worse than this announcement itself.
The charts look good, and the discussions are rather in a positive direction. It is unlikely that the token will fall below $1. In turn, DonAlt would prefer to observe a bullish run up to new highs.
Summer in the rays of "Solana"
Solana pulled ahead and set new record highs for its pairs with BTC and USD.
Trading on breakouts has a not so positive reputation in the crypto industry, but it is not the worst option if you know what to do. The main advantage of trading on breakouts (if you do everything "correctly", whatever that means) is that these settings usually impose very clear price and time invalidations.
If the market breaks out, especially if the breakout happens before reaching new record highs, the last thing it should do is hang near the breakout level and return soon for retesting. Both are red flags. Good breakouts, as a rule, do not roll back.
With this in mind, the levels of disability for trading on breakouts are quite clear. Any movement back below the breakout point will be a signal to exit. In some cases, it will be quite reasonable to get out of the race a little in advance.
The breakout level for the Solana/USD pair is at $44-47. As long as the market is far from this area, we are waiting for the trend to continue towards the goals with a round number. Your best entry helpers are lower timeframes and correlated pullbacks throughout the market.
Aave restores support
If altcoins continue to grow, we should expect that the DeFi case will work out (against the background of how well things are going with Solana, Terra and other projects). The Aave/USD pair also demonstrates an interesting structure.
The price regained support at the level of $324-$366. It was a consolidation that preceded the weekly lower low. At these levels, you can often see strong resistance, but it was all absorbed. Now the level of support is clearly felt.
There will probably be some friction near the maximum of $450-$470, but the key assumption is that as long as the restored weekly structure ($324-$366) remains, new highs are more likely than the continuation of the bearish phase.
The market is quite far from this area, so a pullback across the entire market would be ideal, in which the Aave/USD pair will return to the support level.
USD/CHF analysis on January 20, 2025On Monday, USD/CHF is working out a correction, signaling a possible continuation of growth. The asset is trading around 0.9127, against the background of low volatility of currency pairs due to the weekend in the United States.In December, the Swiss producer price index remained at 106.3 points, 0.9% lower than in December 2023, with an annual average of -1.7%. The increase in the cost of cocoa, chocolate products and coffee was offset by lower prices for pharmaceutical products, metals, semi-finished products and building materials. The slowdown in inflation in the manufacturing sector creates favorable conditions for the economy and supports the intentions of the Swiss National Bank to continue easing monetary policy.Despite the stability of the Swiss franc, recent fluctuations in the US dollar exchange rate have had little effect on the dynamics of USD/CHF. Currently, the US dollar index is at 108.90, approaching the annual high of 109.90. Investors' attention is focused on the inauguration of Donald Trump, who promises immediate changes in domestic policy. In addition, data on the US real estate market for December show a sharp increase in the volume of new home construction to 1,499 million, and the number of building permits issued amounted to 1,483 million, which reduces the likelihood of an early change in the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System.USD/CHF technical analysis for todayOn the daily chart, the pair is approaching the resistance line of the ascending channel with dynamic boundaries of 0.9300–0.9020. Technical indicators indicate a possible strengthening of the buy signal. The lines of the Alligator indicator are diverging, and the histogram of the Awesome Oscillator (AO) indicator is forming correction bars in the positive zone.Trading Recommendations- long positions when the level of 0.9170 breaks up with a target of 0.9310. The stop loss should be set at 0.9120.- selling is advisable when the level of 0.9080 breaks down with a target of 0.8910. It is recommended to place the stop loss at the level of 0.9130. 
During Monday's Asian session, USD/JPY is correcting from local highs, trading near the level of 156.12. After a sharp rise last week, the US dollar came under pressure amid expectations of the inauguration of Donald Trump, scheduled for today. The new president promises to impose increased import duties on goods from Mexico, Canada and China, which is causing concern in the market.The Japanese yen, in turn, found support in positive macroeconomic statistics. Orders for machinery products increased by 10.3% year-on-year in November, exceeding the 5.6% increase a month earlier. On a monthly basis, the indicator rose by 3.4%, with a forecast decline of 0.4%. Although industrial production decreased by 2.2% in November, it was slightly better than expected. In annual terms, the decrease was 2.7%, compared to 2.8% previously. The percentage of production capacity utilization fell by 1.9%, and the index of activity in the service sector decreased by 0.3%, which also turned out to be worse than expected.US industrial production data released on Friday showed an increase of 0.9% in December, which exceeded forecasts of 0.3%. All this adds interest to the upcoming meeting of the Bank of Japan on January 24. It is expected that the rate will be raised from 0.25% to 0.50% and will reach its maximum since 2008, which may lead to further tightening of monetary policy. This can be supported by rising wages and the desire to achieve the 2.0% inflation target.The head of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, is likely to confirm his readiness for further adjustments if the Trump administration's policy does not create additional risks for the Japanese economy. Friday's inflation statistics may show an acceleration of the base index to 3.0%, which will be an additional factor in favor of the "hawkish" rhetoric.USD/JPY technical analysis for todayThe Bollinger Band indicator on the daily chart signals an expansion of the range, while the price returns to its lower limit. The MACD indicator confirms the potential for decline, approaching the zero level from above. Stochastic is turning up, which may indicate a possible development of short-term upward dynamics.It is advisable to form short positions when breaking down the level of 155.50 with a target of 154.50 and a stop loss at 156.00.The return of the uptrend and the activation of purchases will be indicated by an upward breakdown of the level of 156.50. In this case, the target of buyers becomes the level of 157.50. We will set the stop loss at 156.00. 
FOREX fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on January 20, 2025Donald Trump's political promises are shaping traders' expectations, leading to a record increase in net longs for the US dollar to the levels of 2019. The President-elect declares his intention to deal with every crisis with unprecedented speed and determination. However, such statements cause concern, because something can go wrong. It is possible that the outlook for EUR/USD will be less gloomy than previously expected.From the point of view of macroeconomics, the reasons for strengthening the dollar are obvious. The United States demonstrates greater resilience compared to the European economy. The International Monetary Fund forecasts US GDP growth of 2.8% in 2024, while only 0.8% is expected for the Eurozone. The consensus forecast of 73 Wall Street Journal experts predicts an acceleration of inflation in the United States to 2.7% by the end of 2025, which exceeds October expectations of 2.3%. By the end of 2026, the personal consumption expenditure index is expected to reach 2.6%, with the tariffs imposed by Trump adding 0.5 percentage points to this figure.Experts predict an increase in import duties for China by 23 percentage points and by 6 percentage points for other countries, which will lead to an average tariff increase of 10 percentage points. These changes may be untimely due to the continuing acceleration of inflation.Against the background of these expectations, the probability of a Fed rate hike in 2025 has increased to 25%, although Wall Street Journal analysts predict a rate cut of 50 bp. These factors should help strengthen the dollar. However, the 8% rally in the fourth quarter hints that many positive factors are already embedded in the current dollar exchange rate. As a result, extended speculative long positions on the USD index can bring losses to traders, rather than become a reason for joy. If something goes wrong, EUR/USD will have an opportunity for correction.In the early days of the Trump presidency, investors' attention will focus on tariffs. Unlike in his first term, when he started with fiscal stimulus to support the economy before trade wars, Trump now risks weakening the U.S. economy before stimulating its growth with tax cuts. If the economy starts to slow down, the Fed may resume the easing cycle, which will be a positive signal for EUR/USD.In my opinion, the gradual introduction of tariffs will initially weaken the dollar, and then lead to its growth. On the contrary, a sharp increase in import duties may push EUR/USD to parity, followed by a recovery. At the moment, it is advisable to consider a two-way strategy: buy EUR/USD from 1.0335 and sell from 1.0255.EUR/USD technical analysisEUR/USD is trading in the corridor between the levels of 1.0315 - 1.0260. The short-term trend remains downward. Near the level of 10315, we will consider selling the asset with a target of 1.0260. If the price fixes below the 1.0260 mark, it will be possible to form new sales with a target at the minimum of January 13.The option for buying involves a breakdown and price consolidation above the level of 1.0315. In this case, long positions with the main target at the upper target zone of 1.0481 - 1.0453 become relevant. 
During Asian trading on Thursday, the pound weakened against the US dollar, retreating to the level of 1.2208, after violent movements the day before.Investors are following the inflation data for December with interest. The monthly figures showed an increase from 0.1% to 0.3%, while the annual figures decreased from 2.6% to 2.5%, which turned out to be worse than expected at 0.4% and 2.6%, respectively. Core inflation rose from 0.0% to 0.3%, but decreased from 3.5% to 3.2% year-on-year. Experts warn that inflationary pressures may intensify in the coming months due to rising energy prices and tax indexation under the new Labor budget. In the first half of the year, inflation may reach 3.0%, which is significantly higher than the Bank of England's target of 2.0%.Economists polled by Reuters expect the Bank of England to cut rates four times this year to support the economy. However, the growth of inflationary risks may force the regulator to slow down the pace of monetary expansion. The majority of respondents predict a reduction in rates by 25 basis points, to the level of 3.75%.In the US, annual inflation accelerated from 2.7% to 2.9% in December, which confirms the validity of the Fed's cautious approach to lowering rates in 2025. Monthly CPI figures increased from 0.3% to 0.4%, while the base indicators slowed from 3.3% to 3.2% in annual terms and from 0.3% to 0.2% on a monthly basis. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in January fell from 2.1 to -12.6 points, significantly worse than the forecast of 3.0 points.Today, the attention of British investors is focused on the GDP data for November. An increase of 0.2% is expected after a decrease of 0.1% in the previous month. Industrial production is projected to grow by 0.1% after falling by 0.6%, but the annual dynamics may worsen from -0.7% to -1.0%.On the daily chart of GBP/USD, the Bollinger Band indicator shows a downward trend with a slight narrowing of the range from above. The MACD warns of a possible upward reversal, while the Stochastic retains short-term growth potential.After breaking down the 1.2150 level, it is recommended to open short positions with a target of 1.2036 and a stop loss at 1.2200.For purchases, you should wait for the breakout of the 1.2261 level. The target is 1.2400. Stop loss at 1.2200. 
FOREX Fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on January 16, 2025The first public statement by Scott Bessent, a candidate for the post of treasury secretary, that the United States should preserve the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency, instantly reversed the growth of EUR/USD observed after the release of inflation data in the United States. It seems that the administration of Donald Trump does not plan to significantly weaken the dollar, which creates room for further depreciation of the main currency pair.At first glance, the data on the consumer price index (CPI) looked ambiguous. Annual inflation accelerated from 2.7% to 2.9%, while monthly inflation showed the best result in a year. However, the main contribution to the price increase was made by a 4% increase in gas prices. At the same time, core inflation decreased from 3.3% to 3.2% in annual terms and to 0.2% on a monthly basis, the slowest growth in the last six months.The markets immediately reacted to this data: Treasury bond yields declined, stock indexes showed the best dynamics since the election of Donald Trump, and forecasts for the Fed rate were revised. The probability that the rate will remain unchanged in 2025 has dropped from 26% to 16%, and the probability of more than one reduction has increased from 35% to 50%.Comments from FOMC representatives added volatility to currency pairs. John Williams, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, confirmed the stability of the disinflationary trend. His colleague from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Thomas Barkin, said that the latest data confirms the movement of inflation towards the target level. Austan Goolsbee of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago noted that inflation dynamics continues to improve.Against this background, the EUR/USD rally seemed logical. An increase in global risk appetite, lower yields and an increased likelihood of a resumption of the Fed's easing cycle supported the euro. In addition, speculators, amid rumors of the gradual introduction of import tariffs, began to reduce long positions in the dollar.However, even if the Fed starts cutting rates, it will be slower than other central banks. ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane expressed concern about the possibility of deflation returning to the Eurozone, and ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos stated the priority of economic growth over the return of inflation to the target level, which indicates the continuation of the cycle of monetary policy easing by the European regulator.The trader's trading plan for EUR/USD assumes that both the dollar and the euro have their weaknesses, which increases the likelihood of consolidation of the pair. However, if Donald Trump starts actively implementing his election promises, the EUR/USD bulls will have to retreat. The strategy of selling EUR/USD on growth with targets around 1.012 and 1 remains relevant. 
GBP/USD trading idea on January 15, 2025On Wednesday in the Asian session, GBP/USD shows a slight decrease, trading near the level of 1.2200. The pound remains near multi-month lows, due to the fall in the value of British government bonds and weak macroeconomic statistics, which increase the likelihood of further monetary easing by the Bank of England.Investors are evaluating the UK inflation data released this morning. In December, the consumer price index increased by 2.5% year-on-year, which is lower than the forecast of analysts who expected growth to 2.7%, and lower than the November figure of 2.6%. On a monthly basis, inflation increased by 0.3% against 0.1% in November. Core inflation, excluding volatile categories such as food and energy, increased by 3.2% year-on-year compared with the previous value of 3.5%. These data may give the Bank of England grounds to resume interest rate cuts in order to stimulate the economy and mitigate the effects of the new government's tax reform. Sarah Breeden, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, noted last week that current macroeconomic data support the idea of a gradual rate cut. In this regard, UBS analysts expect that in February the British regulator may continue the cycle of monetary expansion.Additional pressure on the pound is exerted by the crisis of the UK debt market. The yield on 30-year bonds has reached its highest in 26 years, raising concerns about the country's fiscal sustainability. Investors are actively selling off British bonds amid rising government debt, slowing economic growth and ongoing inflation risks. Rising yields have already increased the government's debt service costs, which may lead to the need for higher taxes and government spending cuts. This worsens the prospects for the British economy and increases pressure on the GBP/USD pair.Pending GBP/USD orders:Sell Stop at 1.2160 with a target at 1.1900 and a stop loss at 1.2250. 
AUD/USD analysis on January 15, 2025By the middle of the week, AUD/USD rose to 0.6192, reflecting cautious optimism in the market.At the same time, traders are cautious ahead of the publication of December inflation data in the United States, which may affect the prospects for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025.Earlier, the Australian dollar partially recovered its positions after the reaction of the US dollar to the statistics on the producer price index.Key events for AUDOn Thursday, Australia will publish an employment report, which is an important indicator of the state of the labor market. These data are crucial for adjusting the forecasts for interest rate dynamics of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).At the end of the month, fresh inflation data for the fourth quarter of 2024 will be published. These indicators will play a key role in shaping expectations regarding the upcoming RBA meeting and its decisions on borrowing rates.Currently, investors estimate the probability of a rate cut at the February RBA meeting at 70%. In the case of such a scenario, the rate may decrease by 25 basis points from the current 4.35% per annum. The market has already taken this opportunity into account in prices.Nevertheless, the continuing uncertainty about the future policy of the RBA and the target rate level deters investors from taking active action, limiting the AUD's growth potential.AUD/USD technical analysis for todayOn the 4-hour chart, the AUD/USD pair is forming an upward wave with a target at 0.6211. It is expected that this level will be tested today, after which a decline to 0.6161 is possible. A consolidation zone is likely to form around this mark. If the pair breaks through this zone up, a correction to 0.6290 may begin. In case of a breakdown downwards, a new wave of decline is possible with a target of 0.6116. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, as its signal line is below the zero mark, but pointing upwards.On the hourly chart, the pair is forming a wave of growth towards 0.6211, which is expected to be reached today. Then a correction wave to 0.6161 is possible. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, as its signal line is above the 50 mark and is moving up to 80.ConclusionThe recent recovery of the Australian dollar is being held back by uncertainty surrounding the RBA's future decisions. Key internal data, including employment and inflation figures for the fourth quarter, significantly affect market expectations. The main forex indicators point to the short-term growth potential of AUD/USD, however, further success of buyers will depend on clarity regarding the RBA's policy and general economic conditions. 
During the Asian session on January 15, NZD/USD tends to stay above the 0.5600 mark, receiving moderate support from statistics on the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) business confidence index. In the fourth quarter, the indicator increased by 16.0% after the previous decrease of -1.0%.An additional growth factor for the New Zealand currency was data on the construction sector and China's foreign trade. The number of building permits issued increased by 5.3%, recovering from a decrease of 5.2% in the previous month. China's exports grew by 10.7% year-on-year after rising by 6.7%, exceeding the forecasted 7.3%, while imports increased by 1.0%, which also exceeded expectations. Against this background, China's trade surplus increased from $97.44 billion to $104.84 billion in December, which is higher than the projected $99.8 billion.The signing of the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement between New Zealand and the UAE was also a significant event. This agreement is aimed at expanding trade and investment between the two countries, with a projected growth of up to 5.0 billion dollars by 2032.The pressure on the US dollar yesterday was exerted by data on industrial inflation, which caused a revision of expectations for the Fed rate. In December, the annual production price index rose to 3.3% from 3.0% in November, but was lower than the projected 3.4%. The monthly figure dropped to 0.2%, which is worse than expected at 0.3%.Today, investors' attention is focused on December data on inflation in the United States, where it is expected to rise from 2.7% to 2.9%, while the base index is projected to remain at 3.3%.On the daily chart, the Bollinger indicator shows sideways dynamics with a wide price range corresponding to the current market activity. The MACD and Stochastic give a steady buy signal, supporting bullish sentiment.The formation of long positions is recommended after the breakdown and consolidation of the price above the level of 0.5607 with a target of 0.5700 and a stop loss at 0.5571.A pullback from the 0.5607 level downwards, followed by a breakdown of the 0.5571 support, can serve as a signal for sales. The target will be 0.5511. We will place the stop loss at 0.5607.