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Daily forecast for January 17, 2022

EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, Litecoin/USD, cryptocurrency, Ethereum/USD, cryptocurrency, Bitcoin/USD, cryptocurrency, Gold, mineral, Dogecoin, cryptocurrency, Shiba Inu, cryptocurrency, Daily forecast for January 17, 2022

Euro/Dollar

The euro fell against the dollar, reaching the level of 1.1401. Trading Friday showed a trading range of 1.1480 – 1.1401.

The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds stopped at 1.793%.

Trading activity increased due to the news background.

December showed a decrease in retail sales by 1.9% compared to the previous month, according to the US Department of Commerce. The maximum decline began in February 2021 against the background of rising consumer prices and the spread of a new strain of COVID-19 "omicron". In November, experts predicted sales growth of 0.3%. According to the latest data, sales increased by no more than 0.2%.

Last week, the number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time increased by 23 thousand. According to the US Department of Labor, this is the highest figure since mid-November 2021.

Data on increased inflation in the US did not support the dollar. Experts predict a rise in the base interest rate by the Federal Reserve in March with a probability of 80%.

This week, the US dollar may be affected by the volume of construction of new residential real estate, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits, as well as the dynamics of sales in the secondary housing market.

Pound/Dollar

According to the results of the last trading sessions, the pound/dollar exchange rate is held negatively.

There is a fixation below the price resistance, at 1.3748. The strong position of the US dollar against other world currencies creates short positions on the pound, which ensures that the currency pair is located mainly in a downward direction.

At the moment, the data on the yield of 10-year UK bonds is close to the value of October, and stopped at 1.1450%.

At the end of the week, trading activity in the foreign exchange market increased.

In the UK, in November 2021, the volume of industrial production increased by 1% compared to October of the same year, when the indicator fell to 0.5%.

In December, UK GDP figures increased by 0.9% compared with November's growth of 0.2%.

There are risks associated with the strengthening of the US dollar. The media reports on the continuation of active discussions on the topic of tightening monetary policy. The pound/dollar currency pair will show an increase in trading activity.

This week in the UK, the following topics will be actively discussed: the average wage level, the unemployment rate, the consumer price index and the volume of retail sales.

Gold

Friday's trading showed a predominant decline in gold. There are attempts to turn around against the ascending channel and support at the level of $ 1,816 per ounce. Consumer interest in the precious metal decreased slightly compared to the previous month. Trading Friday showed a diverse trading dynamics due to the strengthening of the gas, oil, consumer goods and technology sectors. The market is sensitive to the negative dynamics of the financial, consumer services and industrial sectors.

At the close on the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones declined by 0.56%, the S&P 500 index rose by 0.08%.

The situation in foreign markets is positive.

The media reported a record trade surplus in China in December, and in general for 2021, due to increased exports amid the coronavirus pandemic.

According to statistics, in 2021, the trade surplus reached its historical maximum since 1950.

Important economic statistics and information on the further reaction of gold are expected to be published this week.

The markets will be sensitive to the number of construction permits issued, the volume of construction of new real estate, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits, the dynamics of sales in the secondary housing market, the index of production activity from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve.

Cryptocurrencies

After reaching a new resistance level around $43820, bitcoin declined moderately. There is a possibility of profit taking after the growth over the past week. The digital currency is held back by support at the level of $ 42456.

By the end of Sunday, the capitalization of the cryptocurrency market amounted to 2.06 trillion US dollars, Friday's figures were 2.01.

According to media reports, in 2021, the share of bitcoin in cryptocurrency payments decreased to 65%. In 2020, the share of this digital currency accounted for 92%. This happened due to the more frequent use of other digital assets by retail customers and businesses in 2021. The share of Ethereum in 2021 was 15%, and "stablecoins– - 13%. Cryptocurrencies Dogecoin, Shiba Inu and Litecoin accounted for 3%.

The more frequent use of "stablecoins" by people and businesses explains their low volatility. The price of this digital currency is less susceptible to a strong decline due to the provision of real assets.

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