USD/CAD: future trends will be determined by macroeconomic data
During the Asian trading session, the USD/CAD exchange rate remained stable, hovering around the level of 1.3715 ahead of the emergence of new key factors affecting the movement of the currency.
Today, Canada is to publish data on consumer inflation for October. The annual index is expected to fall from 3.8% to 3.2%, with a slight monthly increase of 0.1%. According to forecasts, the core inflation index will remain at 2.8%. If the forecasts come true, the Canadian dollar may decline.
In the US, investors' main attention on Tuesday will be paid to the minutes of the November meeting of the Federal Reserve System, where experts will look for confirmation of the completion of tight monetary policy and initial estimates of the time when it will begin to weaken. Approximately 30% of analysts believe that the first rate cut may occur in March 2024.
- Resistance levels: 1.3750, 1.3800, 1.3853, 1.3900.
- Support levels: 1.3700, 1.3650, 1.3600, 1.3550.
USD/CHF: the "American" continues to decline due to an unsuccessful correction attempt a day earlier
The USD/CHF trading instrument resumed its decline after the previous attempt at a corrective recovery failed. The currency pair is currently checking the 0.8830 level for the possibility of further decline, updating the minimum values since September 1.
Uncertainty around the potential termination of the policy of tightening monetary conditions by the US Federal Reserve continues to put pressure on the exchange rate. Some analysts suggest that the first interest rate cut may occur as early as March 2024, based on recent data on the slowdown in US inflation in October. The consumer price index fell from 3.7% to 3.2% year-on-year and from 0.4% to 0.0% month-on-month, while forecasts expected levels of 3.3% and 0.1%, respectively.
- Resistance levels: 0.8850, 0.8875, 0.8900, 0.8930.
- Support levels: 0.8824, 0.8800, 0.8756, 0.8730.
Gold price analysis
The precious metal is strengthening significantly, playing back the previous uncertain dynamics of the last two sessions. The metal is trying to overcome the 1990.00 level, updating the highs since November 3, amid market discussions that the US Federal Reserve may have completed the current stage of raising interest rates. This conclusion was made by investors after analyzing US inflation data for October, where the consumer price index fell from 3.7% to 3.2% per annum, coming close to the upper limit of the Fed's target range. Approximately 30% of analysts are now considering the likelihood of the first rate cut as early as March 2024.
At the same time, market activity remains moderate in anticipation of the minutes of the November Fed meeting, from which market participants expect additional signals on future monetary policy. It is also expected to publish data for October on sales volumes in the secondary housing market, where experts predict a decrease in the indicator from 3.96 million to 3.90 million.
- Resistance levels: 2000.00, 2015.30, 2030.00, 2050.00.
- Support levels: 1987.29, 1972.85, 1963.55, 1952.66.
Crude Oil Market Analytics
Brent Crude Oil prices fell to 81.94 on the news of a possible agreement by OPEC+ members to further reduce oil production at the upcoming meeting on November 26.
Since September, oil prices have fallen by 16%, causing investors to worry about global energy demand amid the risk of increased hostilities in the Middle East. The situation worsened after data on China's GDP and trade balance were published, showing a decline in the country's economic growth from 6.3% to 4.9% on an annual basis in the third quarter.
However, market participants also expect the outcome of the upcoming OPEC+ meeting on November 26. In their monthly report, the organization's analysts stressed the stability of the main indicators of the oil market, despite the "pessimistic mood", and confirmed their optimistic forecast for oil demand growth in 2024. Despite this, it is likely that OPEC+ will decide to reduce oil production, especially after reports from Reuters about such plans from Russia. However, experts believe that any new restrictions on production will only lead to a short-term increase in oil prices.
- Resistance levels: 82.50, 84.74, 88.03.
- Support levels: 78.27, 71.90.