EUR/USD: Fed has nowhere to hurry

EUR/USD, currency, EUR/USD: Fed has nowhere to hurry

FOREX Fundamental analysis for EUR/USD

According to Jerome Powell. There is no point in the Fed rushing to change interest rates, although there is an opportunity to soften financial conditions more than expected. But the Fed will take such measures only in the event of a serious slowdown in the US economy. There is also a reverse scenario - to keep rates at the same level if inflation shows signs of growth. The Fed has a strong position, as well as the EURUSD bears.

Jerome Powell's cautious rhetoric could cause concern among sellers of the US dollar, however, the Fed chairman's remark that "it's nice to see when at least something meets expectations" restrains sellers of the main currency pair. If the expansion of the personal consumption price index from 2.4% to 2.5% does not alarm the Federal Reserve, is it possible that the likelihood of a smaller scale of policy easing is slightly exaggerated?

But isn't Jerome Powell's caution an attempt to hide concern about a possible acceleration in consumer prices? In the United States, these risks are much higher than in other developed economies. This is due to faster productivity growth, a strong economy where there are usually no problems with inflation, higher oil prices, and the actions of the Central Bank. The dovish position and constant talk about lowering Federal Reserve interest rates fueled the growth of stock indices, supported risky assets through currency correlation and softened financial conditions, which could disperse the consumer price index and the personal consumption index.

Unlike in the United States, Europe has weaker consumer price data. Especially in France and Italy. This forces the ECB to start a "dovish" U-turn. According to the head of the Bank of Greece, Yannis Stournaras, the European regulator will reduce the deposit rate four times in 2024 by 25 basis points at each meeting. The market expects three acts of monetary expansion. So in any case, the EURUSD will continue to decline based on the difference in the exchange rates of the monetary policy of Central Banks.

Thus, the weak economy in the Eurozone forces the ECB to act quickly. On the contrary, a strong American economy allows the Federal Reserve to remain calm. This difference in approaches strengthens the confidence of buyers of the US dollar.

What's in the future? Jerome Powell answered this question very clearly. If the U.S. economy starts to slow down, expect an interest rate cut soon. The best indicator for this would be the U.S. labor market. Bloomberg experts predict employment growth of 200,000 in March, an unemployment rate of 3.9% and a slowdown in wage growth to 4.1%, which will be the lowest growth rate since mid-2021.

Of course, these are not the indicators that will force the Federal Reserve to rush to adjust monetary policy. However, if the actual figures are significantly lower than forecasts, investors' interest in buying the US dollar will decrease sharply, which will provoke an increase in the EURUSD. However, while the main currency pair is trying to break above 1.08, we will look for entry points into sales with a target of 1.07 on the rise.

Technical analysis for EUR/USD

EUR/USD shows a downward trend in the short term. The sellers' target is the 1.0729 - 1.0704 area. After working out the target, we are waiting for the fixation of sales by major players and the transition to an upward correction.

If the corrective growth starts from the current levels, then the pair may go to the resistance area between 1.0860 and 1.0852. After testing this zone, we will consider the formation of short positions with a target at the minimum of March 29. The boundaries of the trend channel shifted to 1.0906 - 1.0894.

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Symbols EUR/USD

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EURUSD: have the factors of strengthening the dollar already worked out?
EUR/USD, currency, EURUSD: have the factors of strengthening the dollar already worked out? FOREX Fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on April 23, 2024The head of the French Central Bank, Villaroy de Galo, argues that the conflict in the Middle East will not affect the ECB's determination to cut rates in June. However, a downturn in geopolitical tensions could change the outlook for the US dollar. The volatility of Brent contributed to the growth of the dollar as a defensive asset. Now, when oil prices are declining, the sale of dollar assets begins. Discussions that most of the factors negatively affecting the euro have already been taken into account in the EURUSD rate contribute to the stabilization of this currency pair with increasing correction risks.Bank of America believes that three expected ECB rate cuts in 2024 have already been reflected in the exchange rate of the single currency. If the European Central Bank takes less drastic measures regarding monetary policy, by the end of the third quarter, the EURUSD rate will rise to 1.1, and by the end of the year to 1.12. Provided that the Fed cuts the federal funds rate twice, as markets expect and as Black Rock analysts predict. And this opinion deserves close attention.According to Bloomberg, Black Rock and similar companies currently manage assets of $43.5 trillion, which is twice as much as those of credit institutions. We can say that they largely shape forex currency trading. As for the views of Bank of America, it is assumed that if the rate is kept at 5.5%, EURUSD is quite capable of going down to 1.05 and below.The further dynamics of the main currency pair will depend on how the Fed and ECB rates change. At the end of April, it is worth paying attention to the elaboration of arguments in favor of the sustainability of the greenback. This is not only related to oil. There is an active discussion about how realistic it is to increase the yield of 10-year US bonds to the level of 5% and above. However, to continue the rally, it is necessary that the federal funds rate remain at 5.5% or even higher.Morgan Stanley warns about the risks of currency inflation. A large discrepancy in the monetary policy of the ECB and the Fed may lead to a strong weakening of the euro against the dollar, which may increase inflation risks. Therefore, the ECB may not cut rates as actively as the market expects.The greenback can be supported by statistics on US GDP for the first quarter. The US economy has been growing by 2% or higher for the seventh consecutive quarter, which indicates its resistance to a 525 basis point rate hike. However, behind this sustainability there are significant fiscal incentives that contribute to the growth of government spending, and this cannot last forever.We believe that EURUSD needs time to assess whether all the factors affecting the EA dollar have already been taken into account by quotes. This may lead to temporary stabilization in the range of 1,061-1,071. At the same time, today's statistics on business activity indices can shake the volatility of currency pairs.Technical analysis for EUR/USDEUR/USD continues to trade in a downtrend with a target at the low of April 16. If the pair can gain a foothold below the extreme, then the next target of the "bears" becomes Target zone in the range 1.0561 - 1.0544. We continue to hold short positions open from resistance (A) 1.0693 - 1.0685.The cancellation of the main sell scenario will be the consolidation of the pair above the maximum of April 18. In this case, we are waiting for the development of an upward correction to the resistance (B) 1.0739 - 1.0727. The trend line also runs here, which increases the importance of resistance. After testing the zone, it will be possible to search for entry into short positions.
Apr 23, 2024 Read
EURUSD: sell on every wave of growth
EUR/USD, currency, EURUSD: sell on every wave of growth FOREX Fundamental analysis for EUR/USDThe decrease in tension in the Middle East has breathed new forces into the euro. In the previous case, when EURUSD reached parity in 2022, an energy crisis broke out in Europe, and a possible war between Israel and Iran, further raising energy prices, could seriously undermine the Eurozone economy, which is dependent on fuel imports. This time, Tehran is minimizing the consequences of rocket attacks from Jerusalem, which indicates its reluctance or unwillingness to take revenge. The main currency risk has started to recover, but will the bulls have enough strength for a prolonged correction?EURUSD is holding higher at 1.06, but talk of a collapse of the pair to parity is not abating. The rates on options, at which the equality of the euro and the US dollar will be fixed, are growing. According to Bank of America estimates, the probability of a pair testing this pivot level over the next 6 months is 12%, although no one considered this option at the beginning of the year.The reason for this was a significant change in investors' perception of the prospects for US GDP and the dynamics of the interest rate of the Federal Reserve Fund (FRF). If Bloomberg's autumn forecasts for 2024 assumed a slowdown in the American economy to 0.9%, then the recent IMF forecast indicates growth of 2.7%, which is twice the forecasts of the nearest competitor from the G7 — Canada. At the beginning of the year, derivatives assumed 6-7 acts of monetary expansion of the Federal Reserve Fund, but now they are talking about 1-2. Moreover, they are more inclined to one rate cut. The possibility of the Fed not changing interest rates at all this year is also being actively discussed.It is clear that those who held short positions on the US dollar at the beginning of 2024 are currently the main buyers of the US currency. Vanguard talks about the stable strength of the US dollar, UBS Asset Management predicts its further growth, and Wells Fargo, yesterday's "bear" of the USD index, has already turned around.Although EURUSD quotes were affected by the escalation of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East and immediately went up with the stabilization of the situation, other factors determining the position of sellers remain in effect. The expected expansion of US GDP by 2.3% in the first quarter, according to Reuters forecasts, makes us think again about the strength of the American economy. The actual data may be even higher, as the leading indicator of the Atlanta Federal Reserve shows +2.9%, and Goldman Sachs gives +3.1%.On the other hand, a slowdown in the PCE index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, according to Citigroup, may lead to an expansion of acts of monetary expansion from 1-2 to 2-3, which will put pressure on the US dollar.The monetary policy of the Federal Reserve continues to be a key factor in forex currency trading and continues to depend on data. Therefore, the markets need to be patient and wait for new macroeconomic statistics for the States. The consolidation of EURUSD in the range of 1.061-1.071 is most likely, however, we will sell on each rise.Technical analysis for EUR/USDEURUSD maintains a downward trend towards the nearest target at a low on April 16. If this support is broken, the pair will go to the Target zone 2, 1.0561 - 0.0544. To enter the sale, we recommend waiting for the asset to recover to the resistance area (A) 1.0693 - 1.0685 and resistance (B) 1.0739 - 1.0727.The signal for buying EURUSD will be a breakthrough and consolidation above the resistance area (B). In this case, the short-term trend will change to an upward direction, and the upper Target zone 1.0878 - 1.0853 will be the target of the "bulls".
Apr 22, 2024 Read
EUR/USD: dollar is afloat again
EUR/USD, currency, EUR/USD: dollar is afloat again FOREX Fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on April 19, 2024It seems that Israel is not going to remain silent after the unprecedented rocket attack on its territory by Iran and has already warned the United States about possible retaliation measures, which has caused a significant increase in demand for protective assets. Together with the harsh statements of the FOMC members, we can say that the plans of the EURUSD bulls have come to an end. The main currency pair is in decline again, and rumors of parity testing no longer seem so odious.In addition, investors are finally beginning to realize that defeating the inflationary dragon is not as easy as they expected at the end of 2023. Three pulses of inflation in the first three months of this year have changed the outlook not only of the major banks, but also of the Federal Reserve System (FRS). Bank of America postponed the forecast of the first interest rate cut from June to December, and Goldman Sachs, which previously counted on five acts of monetary expansion, now talks about two.The statement by the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, John Williams, that the re-launch of the monetary policy tightening cycle is not the main scenario of the Fed, but it may well be implemented, stimulated an increase in US Treasury bond yields. This provided support to the EURUSD bears. Besides, John Williams is not alone in his opinion. Rafael Bostic from Atlanta considers it advisable to start monetary expansion at the end of 2024, and Neil Kashkari from Minneapolis argues that the Fed can keep rates at the current level all year.A slight decrease in the rates on treasuries does not change the methods of forex trading. This decline is associated with an increase in interest in safe assets, and not with a successful auction, as happened the day before. Is it possible to find a more reliable asset in the Forex market than the American dollar?The statements of the ECB Governing Council members also cause nervousness among Forex traders. Boris Vuitich, for example, is surprised that markets are still too calm and underestimate the differences in monetary policy between the Fed and the ECB. Francois Villaroy de Galo believes that it is possible to reduce rates at every meeting of the regulator, and not once a quarter. Piero Cipollone, Giannis Stournaras and Gediminas Simkus hint that July may also become a month of monetary expansion after JuneInterestingly, the US dollar is supported by oil. Its growth against the background of increasing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East increases interest in protective instruments. At the same time, the risks of accelerating inflation in the United States are growing, which forces the Fed to keep rates at the current high level.Thus, differences in the approaches of the Fed and the ECB to monetary policy, increased interest in safe assets and rising oil prices speak in favor of continuing the downward trend in the EURUSD market. We continue to sell this pair, focusing on the levels of 1.06 and 1.05. And it seems that this is just the beginning.EUR/USD Technical AnalysisEUR/USD is developing a downtrend. At the moment, sales are open from the resistance area (A) 1.0693 - 1.0685 with the expectation of reaching the minimum of April 16. If the pair fails and fixes below the minimum mark, then we move the target to area 2 in the range 1.0561 - 1.0544.When EUR/USD moves to growth with a subsequent breakout of resistance (A), we are waiting for testing of the next benchmark - resistance (B) 1.0739 - 1.0727. There is also a trend boundary here, which increases the importance of resistance. From here, we will again look for an entry point into short positions with a target at the same minimum from April 16.
Apr 19, 2024 Read
Forex analysis and forecast for AUD/USD for today, April 18, 2024
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Apr 18, 2024 Read
EUR/USD: the growth of the pair is beneficial for sellers
EUR/USD, currency, EUR/USD: the growth of the pair is beneficial for sellers FOREX Fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on April 18, 2024"Don't hold losses and let profits grow," is one of the main tenets of forex currency trading. The rule is simple, but many traders violate this principle. As soon as it starts to get hot, they close deals to lock in the profits they make.The results of the auction for the placement of 20-year US Treasury bonds, as well as talk that other central banks may follow the Fed and keep rates on a plateau, became the drivers of the rebound of the EURUSD pair from the level of five-month lows.The main factor in the strengthening of the US dollar against other forex currency indices is the difference in monetary policy rates between the Federal Reserve and other central banks. Due to the strength of the American economy, inflation in the United States has started to rise, while in other countries this is not happening. This has led to rumors that the Fed will keep rates high, while other Central banks will begin a cycle of monetary expansion, which will lead to a fall in their currencies.In addition, the increase in the yield of treasuries also strengthened the position of the US dollar. At the same time, the slowdown in consumer price growth in Britain has sown doubts in the traders' camp. The futures market shifted the start date of policy easing by the Bank of England to November, and some investors began to assume that the Central Bank would take a second step in 2025. This strengthened sterling's position, and its strengthening dragged the single currency along with it.However, ECB officials have already decided to lower the rate. Even the famous "hawk" Joachim Nagel called June the month of the start of the mitigation cycle. His colleagues are more inclined to July, but there are practically no opponents of the "dovish" reversal in the ECB Council. It is clear that other economies besides the United States are unlikely to be able to withstand high rates. Therefore, monetary expansion in Europe will lead to a further fall in the euro and the pound.Market skeptics point to a slight decrease in the profitability of treasuries. But it is known that there is no trend without rollbacks, and this decline is probably a temporary phenomenon. Demand for 20-year securities increased more than expected, which affected the value of bonds and their yields. Nevertheless, there are quite a lot of factors in favor of a strong dollar, and the downward trend of EUR/USD will recover, especially since the upward correction of the pair allows it to be sold at a good priceAfter short-term EURUSD longs from 1.065, we move on to medium-term and long-term sales to rebound from the resistance at 1.07 and 1.073.Technical analysis for EUR/USDEUR/USD is working out an upward correction of the downtrend. As a result, the pair recovered to the resistance (A) of 1.0693 - 1.0685. Please note that the resistance area has not been broken through, so from here you can sell well in the direction of the minimum of April 16. If the minimum is broken, then the next target is Target Zone 2 within 1.0561 - 1.0544.If buyers are able to break above the resistance (A), then the correction is likely to continue to the next resistance area (B) 1.0739 - 1.0727. The trend line also runs here. From here we will also consider sales. The goal remains the same.
Apr 18, 2024 Read
USD/CAD: Canadian dollar does not have a strong background
USD/CAD, currency, USD/CAD: Canadian dollar does not have a strong background USD/CAD analysis on April 17, 2024USD/CAD is adjusted near the level of 1.3820 against the background of changes in the dynamics of the US dollar, while Canadian macroeconomic statistics did not support the national currency.Thus, in March, the consumer price index increased by 0.6% on a monthly basis and from 2.8% to 2.9% on an annual basis, and the base indicator, excluding food and fuel prices, adjusted by 0.5% (mom) and from 2.1% to 2.0% (YoY), which corresponds to according to analysts' forecasts.The US dollar index reached a record high of 106.10 after the publication of March retail sales data. The volume increased by 0.7% on a monthly basis, exceeding preliminary estimates by 0.4%, and jumped from 2.11% to 4.02% on an annual basis, while the base value accelerated from 0.6% to 1.1%. In addition, industrial production over the same period increased by 0.4% on a monthly basis and moved out of the negative zone to zero.On the daily chart, USD/CAD moves away from the resistance line of the ascending channel with dynamic boundaries of 1.3750–1.3500.Technical indicators on Daily confirm the purchase/ the range of EMA fluctuations on the Alligator indicator expands upwards, and the histogram of the awesome oscillator indicator forms corrective bars above the neutral level.Long positions can be opened after the price is fixed above 1.3850. The nearest target will be 1.3960. We set the stop loss at 1.3800.Sales will be relevant after the price is fixed below the support level of 1.3780. Here, the target is 1.3610. We place the stop loss at 1.3840.
Apr 17, 2024 Read
Forex analysis and forecast for USD/JPY for today, April 17, 2024
USD/JPY, currency, Forex analysis and forecast for USD/JPY for today, April 17, 2024 The outlook for USD/JPY looks mixed. The pair is stabilizing near the level of 154.60. Despite the high interest from buyers, investors are in no hurry to open long positions, expecting a possible intervention by the Bank of Japan in forex currency trading against the background of a critical weakening of the yen. After the historic increase in the interest rate last month, the regulator announced the continuation of a soft monetary policy. At the same time, the Minister of Finance of Japan, Shunichi Suzuki, noted that the monetary authorities are monitoring the situation with the exchange rate of the national currency and are ready to take appropriate action if necessary. In the case of currency interventions, the yen may begin to strengthen rapidly.The yen was supported yesterday by data on Japan's foreign trade, where exports increased by 7.3% in March and imports decreased by 4.9%. The trade balance has reached a surplus of ¥366.5 billion. The national consumer price index in Japan is projected to adjust from 2.8% to 2.7% in March.Today, investors will focus on the publication of the US Federal Reserve's monthly economic report, known as the Beige Book. Inflation data for March will be presented in Japan.On the Daily, the Bollinger Bands are aimed at strong growth, the MACD retains a buy signal. The Stochastic oscillator is flat in the area of maximum values.To form long positions, it is necessary to confidently overcome the resistance level of 155.00 upwards. The target will be 156.00. We will set the stop loss at 154.50.A rebound from 155.00 followed by a breakdown down to the level of 154.50 will serve as a signal to enter short positions with a target of 153.50. In this case, we will set the stop loss to 155.00.
Apr 17, 2024 Read
EUR/USD: the higher the price, the more profitable the sale
EUR/USD, currency, EUR/USD: the higher the price, the more profitable the sale FOREX Fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on April 17, 2024Appetite comes with eating. After the Fed took the first steps towards a dovish reversal in December, markets began demanding 6-7 rate cuts from the central bank in 2024. However, after the publication of data on March inflation in the United States, investors began to discuss the possible resumption of the monetary policy tightening cycle. Jerome Powell's statement that the Federal Reserve is not considering a rate hike calmed the market, and the EURUSD pair began to strengthen.The head of the Fed and his deputy, Philip Jefferson, said that restraining monetary policy should have more time to assess the effectiveness of its impact. This means that the federal funds rate will remain at 5.5% for longer than previously expected. The central bank is unlikely to cut the rate without a significant weakening of the economy. In light of such statements, expectations for the start of the monetary expansion cycle in June decreased to 15%, in July – to 41%. September remains the main candidate for the start of the process, but the final decision of the Fed will depend on the input data.Strong reports on the labor market, inflation and retail sales in the United States, as well as the "hawkish" rhetoric of FOMC members, push the yield of 10-year treasury bonds up, allowing the dollar index to lead among forex currency indices. The difference in yields between American and German bonds has increased by 30 basis points since the beginning of 2024 to 220 bps. A year ago, this figure was 110 basis points. This is also a bearish factor for EURUSD.The federal funds rate is expected to fall by 41 basis points by the end of December, and the ECB deposit rate by 80 basis points by then. The rhetoric of the ECB Governing Council members supports such market forecasts. Christine Lagarde said that unless there are serious shocks, the Central Bank will ease monetary policy. Most likely, this will happen in the near future. The head of the Bank of France, Francois Villaroy de Galo, expressed the opinion that after the start of the cycle in June 2024, the rate should also be reduced in 2025.The updated IMF forecasts support the euro. According to the fund's analysts, the global economy will grow by 3.2% this year, which is 0.1 more than previously forecast. However, estimates for the Eurozone were reduced by 0.1 points to 0.8%. It seems that the American economy continues to be a priority, which supports the EURUSD bears.The current situation with EURUSD may lead to consolidation or even correction of the pair after the breakout of resistance at 1.065 and 1.0665 levels. However, the ECB's willingness to get ahead of the Fed in the cycle of monetary expansion limits the upward pullback of the EURUSD.Technical analysis for EUR/USDEUR/USD maintains a short-term downtrend. On Tuesday, sellers were able to break through and gain a foothold below the "golden zone"1.0645 - 1.0636. The next target for the bears is the target area 2 between 1.0561 and 1.0544. It is advisable to consider a new entry into sales on correction after testing strong resistance levels, which today are: areas 1.0693 - 1.0685 and 1.0739 - 1.0727. The nearest target for sellers is Tuesday's minimum.An alternative option. If EUR/USD meets the target on Wednesday and updates yesterday's low, then the target correction levels will need to be revised.
Apr 17, 2024 Read
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