During Tuesday's Asian session, the US dollar showed a moderate decline. USD/CHF is trying to break down the 0.8960 level. The weakening of the US currency is due to the factors of technical analysis by John Murphy, as well as investor caution before the release of key statistics on employment in the United States.
The ADP report on employment dynamics in the US private sector will be published tomorrow at 3:15 p.m. (GMT+2). Forecasts suggest a reduction from 183,000 to 140,000, which may increase pressure on the Fed in the context of possible monetary policy easing. At the moment, the market is planning two interest rate cuts of 25 bps in the second half of 2025.
On Friday at 15:30 (GMT+2), official data on the US labor market will be released, according to which the number of jobs in the non-agricultural sector may grow from 143,000 to 153,000. The average hourly wage growth is likely to be 4.1% year-on-year, and will slow down from 0.5% to 0.3% month-on-month. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.0%.
The Swiss franc is receiving additional support due to strong macroeconomic statistics. The SVME business activity index rose from 47.5 to 49.6 points in February, exceeding analysts' forecasts (48.4 points). At the same time, the ISM manufacturing index in the United States decreased from 50.9 to 50.3 points, indicating a slowdown in activity in the sector.
Inflation data will be released in Switzerland tomorrow at 09:30 (GMT+2). The consumer price index for February is expected to rise by 0.5% after falling by 0.1% a month earlier, and in annual terms the figure will be 0.4%. This factor may influence the rhetoric of the Swiss National Bank, which is likely to take a pause in interest rate changes.
In addition, the SNB ended 2024 with a record profit of 80.7 billion francs. The value of gold on the regulator's balance sheet increased by 21.2 billion francs, the profit from operations in foreign currency amounted to 67.3 billion francs, while losses from positions in national currency reached 7.4 billion francs.
Technical analysis indicates a further weakening of the dollar. The Bollinger bands on the daily chart are narrowing, signaling consolidation in the short term. The MACD is in the negative zone, confirming the bearish sentiment, and the Stochastic, having turned away from the overbought zone, indicates a possible decline.
Sales are advisable after a confident breakdown down to the level of 0.8952 with the potential to decline to 0.8865. The stop loss is 0.9000.
Purchases are possible in case of a rebound from 0.8952 and a breakdown of 0.9000 upwards. In this case, the target level is 0.9075 and the stop loss is 0.8952.