AUDUSD: the RBA's financial stability has calmed investors
The AUDUSD currency pair is trading with moderate strengthening, recovering losses from the beginning of the week. The asset reached the level of 0.6670 having gained support from the macroeconomic data block in Australia.
Thus, the consumer confidence from Westpac for April in Australia added 9.4%, earlier displaying zero dynamics, while analysts expected the indicator of 0.8%. Meanwhile, the National Australia Bank released business sentiment data for March, reflecting the correction to -1.0 points from -4.0 points, with estimates of zero dynamics. The market assesses the RBA's financial strength review, where the regulator's officials note the high profitability and liquidity reserves at all financial institutions in the country, while experts estimate the repetition of the 2008 crisis scenario as unlikely. Under the "baseline scenario" the number of unemployed would increase slightly from current levels, income would rise by 4.25% and the cost of living would increase by 4.75% this year.
- Resistance levels: 0.6700, 0.6750, 0.6800, 0.6853.
- Support levels: 0.6650, 0.6618, 0.6600, 0.6563.
USDCHF: the U.S. dollar continues to decline
Asian session displays downward dynamics of the pair USDCHF, as part of the correction after the attempts to strengthen the previous day on the background of technical factors.
The American currency gets moderate positive signals on expectations for a further tightening of monetary parameters by the U.S. Federal Reserve, given the published employment market statistics on Friday. The value of new vacancies excluding agriculture reached 236.0 thousand, contrary to experts' expectations of 240.0 thousand and the previous 326 thousand, the unemployment rate dropped to 3.5% from 3.6% and the average hourly wage growth accelerated to 0.3% from the previous 0.2%. Economists urge investors not to draw premature conclusions about the market situation, but to first read the March inflation data, which will be released soon. Current estimates of consumer prices call for an annual decline to 5.2% from 6.0%, well above the Treasury Department's target. The benchmark excluding food and energy prices has the potential to strengthen to 5.6% from 5.5%.
- Resistance levels: 0.9100, 0.9150, 0.9200, 0.9258.
- Support levels: 0.9070, 0.9030, 0.9000, 0.8960.
Gold market analysis
The price of the precious metal is moving predominantly in a bullish trend, having resumed testing the psychological level at 2000.00. Earlier, gold position showed moderate correction amid the attempt of renewed initiative from the U.S. currency on expectations of further decisions of the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Meanwhile, market participants will be studying the U.S. macro data on consumer prices in March, which will be announced on Wednesday, April 12. According to preliminary forecasts, consumer inflation will fall to 5.2% from the current 6.0% and the annual rate will shrink to 0.3% from 0.4%. Core inflation may show a correction to 5.6% from 5.5%. Additionally, analysts expect to see some hints at further steps of the regulator in the short term and by the end of the week the retail sales report for March which is projected to show zero volatility at -0.4%.
- Resistance levels: 2000.00, 2015.30, 2030.00 and 2050.00.
- Support levels: 1974.22, 1960.00, 1943.80, 1930.00.
Oil market analysis
Brent benchmark crude oil prices are testing the 84.00 level.
Analysts expect the International Energy Agency to publish its monthly assessment of the situation at the energy trading floors announced for the evening, April 11, which will also specify the clarified data for the short-term outlook. However, experts already note that the crude production capacity levels will be significantly lower than the previous ones, as the OPEC+ cartel members announced additional measures to cut output by 1.66 million barrels per day. API and EIA fuel reserve statistics are expected to be released by Thursday. A week earlier analysts' attention was drawn to the significant correction of the value, which showed an upward trend during the last two months. However, currently the observers assume that the American Petroleum Institute will register a decrease of 1,800 million barrels in reserves, while the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy will show 1,300 million barrels of reserves. However, if the preliminary calculations can materialize, they will not create a significant enough impetus in the market to change the dynamics of Brent price.
- Resistance levels: 86.10, 91.30.
- Support levels: 83.40, 79.60.