AUDUSD: the pair is showing a sideways trend
The AUDUSD trading instrument is showing slight strengthening, recovering the positions actively lost earlier, which did not allow the asset to develop the potential for a sustainable corrective dynamics.
Business activity on the index of China and Australia is a positive factor for the currency pair. Thus, the February value of the Commonwealth Bank's service sector showed a positive trend to 50.7 points from 48.6 points, beating the forecast of 49.2 points, while the level of the composite index of the same period rose to 50.6 points from 48.5 points. Business activity in China's economy showed the Caixin service sector index strengthening to 55.0 points from 52.9 points in February, contrary to market estimates of a decline to 50.5 points.
- Resistance levels: 0.6750, 0.6800, 0.6850 and 0.6900.
- Support levels: 0.6700, 0.6628, 0.6583, 0.6520.
USDCHF: The "American" remains near the local maximum
During the Asia-Pacific trading session, the trading instrument USDCHF shows a correction at 0.9395, having lost the growth potential earlier, when it managed to update the local maximum of December 6.
Positive macroeconomic data background was a moderate support for the U.S. dollar. Thus, primary jobless claims for the last 7 days on February 24 fell to 190.0 thousand from 192.0 thousand earlier, while experts expected the growth to 195.0 thousand, and secondary claims for the week of February 17 fell to 1.655 million from the previous 1.660 million, The day before, the U.S. was under bearish pressure due to the release of contradictory data on business sentiment in the manufacturing sector from the Institute for Supply Management, which showed that the value accelerated to 47.7 points from 47.4 points in February, nevertheless it failed to show the expected reading of 48.0 points. Meanwhile, the indicator continues to remain below the 50.0-point psychological mark for an extended period.
- Resistance levels: 0.9439, 0.9478, 0.9550 and 0.9600.
- Support levels: 0.9400, 0.9350, 0.9300, 0.9250.
NZDUSD: investors estimated the US labor market data
The NZDUSD trading asset is testing the 0.6223 area.
The fundamentals for the New Zealand economy are showing signs of fragility, as evidenced by the macroeconomic data, which showed that the January construction job approvals adjusted by 1.5%, which is positive from the 7.1% decline of the previous period, but still continues to signal weak activity in the real estate market. The value of exports in Q4 2022 lost 0.6% showing an earlier correction of 3.1% while exports in that period fell 6.3% earlier showing an increase of 5.5%. The average level of imported goods and services showed a negative trend of -2.1% compared to the previous growth of 7.1%. Thus, the terms of trade transactions are kept in positive dynamics, having gained 1.8% to the previous 3.9% slump in Q3, which, however, is still not enough for a stable economic growth.
Earlier, the USD index rebounded to 104.800 thanks to positive initial jobless claims report, which fell to 190.0K from the previous 192.0K. Today, investors will be able to assess the announced US macro data, as expected, which will show the ISM Business Sentiment Index dropping to 54.5 points from 55.2 points.
- Resistance levels: 0.6300 and 0.6470.
- Support levels: 0.6150, 0.5960.
Oil market analysis
The price of benchmark Brent crude oil is correcting above the 84.00 mark.
The global oil market shows stability due to positive fundamental factors. For example, market participants expect more rapid recovery of demand for crude oil in China, where after the cancellation of epidemiological measures to combat the spread of covid-19 infection the gradual resumption of previous levels of activity continues. The upward trend was supported by positive data from key sectors, for example, the service sector strengthened from 52.9 points to 55.0 points and manufacturing activity from 50.1 points to 52.6 points. A rapid recovery was also recorded outside the manufacturing segment, with the business activity index rising from 49.2 points to 51.6 points. In the aggregate, the February composite index rose from 52.9 points to 56.4 points, confirming positive trends in the manufacturing sector and demand for raw materials.
- Resistance levels: 86.40 and 91.00.
- Support levels: 82.30, 76.60.