AUDUSD: bulls are set to regain the advantage
AUDUSD is trading in moderate growth, ending the downward trend of the last three sessions, which resulted in the instrument leaving the local highs. Investors began to fix long-term deals in anticipation of the release of March reports on the U.S. employment market and the celebration of Easter.
Meanwhile, the instrument got the certain support due to macroeconomic statistics. For example, Australian exports fell by 3.0% and imports fell by 9.0%, allowing the surplus to reach A$13.870 billion from the previous A$11.266 billion, with economists estimating a correction to A$11.100 billion. Meanwhile, Australian Industry Group (AiG) manufacturing activity for March was 5.6 points, strengthening from a previous -6.4 points, signaling an increase in positive momentum in the manufacturing sector, while the Caixin PRC service sector business activity showed an upward trend to 57.8 points from 55.0 points, beating estimates of a decline to 54.0 points.
- Resistance levels: 0.6700, 0.6750, 0.6800, 0.6853.
- Support levels: 0.6650, 0.6624, 0.6600, 0.6563.
USDCHF: pair is held near the June 2021 low
During the Asian trading the currency pair USDCHF shows a contradictory sentiment, testing 0.9040 and a record low of June 2021, updated the day before.
Investors show low trading dynamics due to preparations for the Easter celebrations according to the Catholic calendar, as well as wish to evaluate the publication of the main US macroeconomic indicators. Thus, the previously announced labor market statistics for March can provide the correction of sentiment among the US FRS officials, as the forecast provides for the number of the unemployed outside the agricultural sector to decrease to 240.0 thousand from the previous 311.0 thousand, the moderate correction of the partial employment and unemployment at the level of 3.6%. Analysts have expressed fears that in reality the situation will be much worse, because the report released the day before by Automatic Data Processing (ADP) on the number of private sector jobs did not meet expectations, showing a correction of only 145.0 thousand earlier, strengthening to 261.0 thousand, with market estimates of a change to 200.0k. Jobless claims data released earlier also did not please the market, showing a decline in initial claims to 228.0k from 246.0k with an expected drop to 200.0k, while secondary claims strengthened to 1.823 million from 1.817 million with a forecast decline to 1.699 million.
- Resistance levels: 0.9070, 0.9100, 0.9150, 0.9200.
- Support levels: 0.9030, 0.9000, 0.8960, 0.8925.
EURGBP: Euro is trying to correct
The EURGBP currency pair reflects a weak decline, being in the area of 0.8770. The market is quite passive in terms of trades amid investors' wait-and-see attitude following the release of U.S. labor market data for March.
Earlier published macroeconomic block in the UK showed mixed statistics with Halifax index of residential real estate value for March growing 0.8% adding 1.2% in February against estimates of -0.3% and business activity of the construction sector showing decline to 50.7 points from 54.6 points contrary to expectations of 53.5 points. Of interest to the market was a number of statements by the Bank of England representatives in which the agency assumes a more dynamic rate of reduction than it was planned the day before because the previous correction in borrowing costs is putting pressure on the performance of the global economy, moreover, earlier measures taken to combat inflation have already shown their effectiveness.
- Resistance levels: 0.8783, 0.8800, 0.8820, 0.8841.
- Support levels: 0.8750, 0.8727, 0.8700, 0.8660.
USDTRY: Turkey is successfully fighting back against inflation
USDTRY is fluctuating within a stable upward range of 18.8000-19.4000, which is held with artificial mechanisms ahead of the upcoming presidential elections.
Preliminary polls show that the current Republican leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan is slightly ahead of his opponent, but the final superiority can only be affected by the obvious domestic economic success. During the current week, March consumer inflation statistics were released, with a monthly gain of 2.29%, second to February's 3.15% increase, but showing a decline in the annual rate to 50.51% from 55.18%. The downward trend in inflation strengthens the incumbent quite a bit, because back in the early months some economists were considering a scenario of an inflation increase to 100.0%.
- Resistance levels: 19.3000 and 19.5000.
- Support levels: 19.2000, 19.0000.