EURUSD: Euro is going to develop the bulls' momentum
EURUSD is showing moderate strengthening at 1.0925 and is developing the correction made earlier. In the background investors are not willing to increase the number of deals ahead of the release of macroeconomic indicators on the dynamics of consumer prices in the U.S., the market activity remains low.
Meanwhile the day before the release of the European retail sales data was a serious barrier for the euro. Thus, the March value declined 0.8% as analysts expected and the figure for the previous month had strengthened by a similar step with the annual expression shrinking by 3.0% against February's decrease of 1.8% which beat the preliminary estimate of -3.5%. Also market confidence from the Sentix index rose to -8.7 points from -11.1 points, beating experts' expectations of -9.9 points, while the value of the current environment for business conditions showed an uptrend for the sixth month in a row, correcting to -4.3 points from the previous -9.3 points signaling economists to successfully overcome the challenges of winter months, surpassing fall forecasts.
- Resistance levels: 1.0957, 1.1000, 1.1051, 1.1100.
- Support levels: 1.0900, 1.0850, 1.0800, 1.0758.
NZDUSD: the pair is set to hold above the 0.6200 threshold
The NZDUSD currency pair is moving in a weak corrective rally, recovering positions lost earlier in the week. The asset is at 0.6200, getting support from a low market activity, as investors are eager to see the announced U.S. inflation statistics.
Economists are predicting that the yearly rate of consumer prices for March will fall to 5.2% from 6.0%, and the monthly rate could fall to 0.3% from 0.4%, but the core inflation rate could rise to 5.6% from 5.5%. However, if there is a big divergence between the real rate and the expected one, the U.S. regulator will get an incentive to increase the interest rate by 0.25% during the May meetings. On Thursday, April 13, the consumer price data will be supplemented by the manufacturing price index statistics. Analysts expect the value for the year to fall to 3.0% from 4.6%, while for the month the figure will remain zero, having previously declined 0.1%.
- Resistance levels: 0.6200, 0.6250, 0.6300, 0.6350.
- Support levels: 0.6166, 0.6138, 0.6100, 0.6049.
Crude Oil Market Review
During morning trading, North American WTI crude oil quotations are in mixed dynamics, sitting at 81.50.
Meanwhile Bloomberg reported that Russia probably lowered its March oil production by 700,000 barrels. The analysts of the publication refer to the closed report in the Ministry of Energy, which noted the average daily production in the country at 1.28 million tons, while crude oil and gas condensate hold at 1.4 million tons, which is the equivalent of 10.36 million barrels per day, down from 11.1 million barrels in February. Experts argue that such data discrepancies with the volume of marine exports and deliveries to refineries in March, only increasing doubts about the authenticity of open statistics on production in Russia. On the eve of the official Kremlin said about a voluntary correction of crude production volume by -500.0 thousand barrels per day for March-December, as part of mirror measures to establish the upper limit of oil price by the authorities and members of the G7. According to the government, the correction exceeded the announced limits by 40.0%.
- Resistance levels: 83.00, 85.00, 86.95, 90.00.
- Support levels: 81.00, 79.24, 78.00, 76.00.
Silver analytics
The price of the precious metal is testing the 25.30 mark.
"Bulls" are taking advantage of the weakening U.S. currency, strengthening silver's position on trading floors as the U.S. dollar is visibly declining against the entire global currency basket and instruments of the metal group. For instance, at the beginning of March silver moved up sharply from the 20.00 level to the current limit, with the USD Index falling to 101.5 points in the same period from the previous 105.0 points, as part of the high correlation coefficient.
Additional support for the asset is provided by the high attractiveness of the physical metal, which reached the peak of purchases by central banks in March. Thus, according to the report of stock exchange Borsa Istanbul, the Turkish republic added 123.15 tons of silver, having increased by 49.0% against March, setting a national record for the entire history of monitoring since 1999. The past peak of 102.66 tons was updated in August 2020.
- Support levels: 24.60, 23.20.
- Resistance levels: 25.83, 27.00.