EURUSD: upward trend is expected in the pair
Pair EURUSD is relatively stable at 1.0835 and the local maximum of March 23. Euro is waiting for the next stimulus to strengthen the current "bullish" momentum.
Experts hastened to reconsider their estimates of the crisis development in the bank sector of the USA and Europe, noting the successful and timely actions of the Fed and the Treasury Department, since the situation has stabilized. At the beginning of the week, the information was confirmed that the US bank First Citizens BancShares Inc. would acquire the controlling interest on the credit portfolio of the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) that stopped its activity the day before, and that would lead to the reduction of the load on the insurance sector. Meanwhile, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation will not avoid a huge loss of at least 20.0 billion dollars. At the same time, the chairman of the Central Bank of Spain and the ECB official Pablo Hernandez de Kos fears that the global turmoil in the banking sector has caused uncertainty in the market, against which the regular increase in the price of funding for credit institutions in Spain and the growing reserve stock is likely to follow.
- Resistance levels: 1.0850, 1.0900, 1.0957, 1.1000.
- Support levels: 1.0800, 1.0758, 1.0700, 1.0640.
NZDUSD: Short term sideways trend
The trading instrument NZDUSD is developing a moderate strengthening, reaching the area of 0.6260, developing "bullish" sentiment in the pair, formed since the beginning of the week due to lower panic moods in the market on the prospects of a potential crisis in the banking sector in Europe and the United States.
Investors are waiting for the New Zealand macroeconomic statistics release on Thursday, March 30. Thus, traders' interest is aroused by the previously announced dynamics of approved construction applications in February: expectations are for a moderate strengthening of the value by 0.5%, having earlier decreased by 1.5% in January. RBNZ March business optimism data is expected, but experts forecast a sharp fall to -47.5 points from -43.3 points. Business activity, according to the National Bank of New Zealand, will decrease to -12.5% from -9.2%.
- Resistance levels: 0.6300, 0.6350, 0.6400 and 0.6450.
- Support levels: 0.6250, 0.6200, 0.6155, 0.6100.
USDTRY: Turkey's manufacturing sector continues to strengthen
The USDTRY currency pair continues to hold within the narrow 18.7000-19.3000 upward corridor ahead of the planned presidential election scheduled for May 14.
Thanks to the personal efforts of the Turkish president the national currency and monetary parameters remained stable, which rules out volatility of the lira in the short term. Earlier in the publication were statistics on March manufacturing sector confidence, reflecting an increase to 105.2 points from 102.4 points, marking the third month in a row of upward correction from 97.5 points since December 2022. Tomorrow, March 30, the Turkish Statistical Institute (Türkstat) will present economic confidence in the index, which is predicted to rise to 100.0 points from February's 99.10 points.
- Resistance levels: 19.1400, 19.3000.
- Support levels: 19.0660, 18.9000.
Silver analysis
The value of the precious metal is quoted above the 23.00 threshold, preparing to test the 24.50 target due to the fluctuations in the U.S. dollar.
Precious metals remain in high demand among investors amid the development of the crisis in the financial sector, which came in the U.S. after the liquidation of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, and then hit European financial institutions. Currently in a difficult situation is the German bank Deutsche Bank AG, whose shares plummeted by 14% at once, contrary to the announced long-term redemption of part of the subordinated securities of the second degree. Trading participants hastily save their capitals, transferring them into "safe" instruments, which by classics are considered as metallic assets, to minimize risks, while leading central banks continue to assure about the stable situation of the banking sector. Gold has risen by 7.3% since spring, and silver by 10.00%. If the upward trend among the metal asset group continues, silver could renew its year-to-date high at 24.50.
- Resistance levels: 23.00, 24.50, 26.00.
- Support levels: 21.50, 20.00, 18.00.