EURUSD: the bulls got a weak advantage in the pair
EURUSD is trading in a weak growth trying to develop the upward trend from the middle of the previous week. The asset reached the level of 1.0750 continuing to strengthen, having updated the local maximum of February 14.
Trading continues at a moderate pace as investors took a wait-and-see approach ahead of the ECB meeting due on Thursday. Recall that at the end of the meeting analysts expect to see correction of the interest rate by 0.50% and increase of the key rate to 3.5% per annum, and then do not rule out that the regulator will give priority to a pause for evaluation of the measures approved earlier. By Friday, March 17, experts expect the publication of February data on the consumer price index, which may influence further steps of the European Central Bank on the issue of monetary parameters in the near future. Based on estimates, inflation will add 0.8% on a monthly basis and 8.5% on an annual basis, continuing well above the department's target of 2.0%.
- Resistance levels: 1.0758, 1.0800, 1.0850, 1.0900.
- Support levels: 1.0700, 1.0640, 1.0600, 1.0550.
NZDUSD: the asset is testing the local highs
The NZDUSD trading instrument displays mixed momentum, holding in the area of 0.6230. The currency pair retains the potential for upward dynamics, which was formed the previous week and gave an opportunity to update the local maximum of March 1. Meanwhile, bullish factors caused by the liquidation of several US banking institutions - Signature Bank and Silicon Valley, by the beginning of the week, are gradually losing their influence. The U.S. stock market showed earlier correctional growth, and the shares of many companies failed to recover the significant loss of positions from the beginning of the week, despite the announcement of the emergency stimulation program for the banking sector from the U.S. Federal Reserve and the rhetoric of the country leader Joe Biden, which gave signals to investors that the situation in the economy is under control.
The day before the publication came the macroeconomic statistics block from the USA, which also helped the market stability. For instance, consumer prices for February slowed to 6.0% from 6.4% and the core value slowed from 5.6% to 5.5%, just as analysts had predicted. Weakening inflation momentum going forward will allow the Fed to avoid increasing the pace of borrowing cost corrections so as not to exacerbate the situation of a possible banking and financial crisis in the country.
- Resistance levels: 0.6250, 0.6300, 0.6350, 0.6400.
- Support levels: 0.6200, 0.6155, 0.6100 and 0.6049.
USDJPY: Japanese regulator keeps ultra-soft monetary policy
Negative dynamics in the US dollar allows the USDJPY to correct at 134.51.
"The Japanese" intends to strengthen the positive dynamics against the background of the publication of the final minutes of the meeting of the Bank of Japan, as there were no fundamental changes in the monetary parameters, but there was a separate correction. Thus, the Bank of Japan announced an additional auction of Treasury securities, and investors will see the offer of 10-year bonds at a rate of 0.5% on each business day thanks to the operations with rate fixing. Moreover, the regulator itself will increase the volume on Treasury securities in the market at the announced rate, continuing to buy back exchange-traded real estate trusts and ETF funds, topping out at 180.0 billion yen and 12.0 trillion yen respectively, supplementing operations by buying back corporate-segment bonds to return their outstanding value to 3.0 trillion yen, as it did before the covid-19 pandemic.
- Resistance levels: 135.60, 137.90.
- Support levels: 133.20, 130.50.
Crude Oil market analysis
Having completed the downward dynamic from the beginning of the week which helped it to reach the local minimum of December 12, today, March 15, in the morning trading the oil grade WTI is quoted by the correction, being at the level of 72.50, which is supported by technical factors.
Pressure on the asset stems from growing concerns over the prospects for the global and American economies. Thus, the closing of some banking institutions in the U.S. signaled the markets about the vulnerability of the banking sector in particular and the financial system as a whole to the regular monetary policy tightening and the market uncertainty. In turn, the Treasury Department announced emergency stimulus measures for banks, supporting depositors, thereby assuring that their deposits remaining in the accounts of liquidated institutions will be paid to depositors, while the amounts in the accounts at SVB bank mostly exceeded the insurance limit.
- Resistance levels: 73.00, 74.00, 76.00, 78.00.
- Support levels: 71.00, 70.00, 68.15, 67.00.